We are now right abouta month from the MLB First Year Player Draft. There are many mock drafts floating around the internet so lets see who they have going at #7. Remember that these are not necessarily who the Phillies have been linked to, it is also an interpretation of how other players are slotting into picks. As always these mocks are subject to seismic changes over the next month, so don’t panic.
MLB Draft Insider – Chris Crawford (5/7/14)
Bradley Zimmer – CF – University of San Francisco
Baseball Prospectus – Bret Sayre (making the pick) (5/7/14)
Alex Jackson – C/RF – Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA)
Bleacher Report – Adam Wells (5/5/14)
Grant Holmes – RHP – Conway HS (South Carolina)
My MLB Draft (4/28/14)
Kyle Freeland – LHP – Evansville
Minor League Ball – Matt Garrioch
Nick Gordon – SS – Florida HS
Through the Fence Baseball – Dan Kirby (4/27/14)
Alex Jackson – C/RF – Rancho Bernardo HS (CA)
Realizing that the consensus is the Phillies system could use a top pitcher, the draft has not quite cooperated with the Phillies. The #7 pick has been firmly between two tiers of pitchers. All of the mock drafts have had Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Kolek, and Jeff Hoffman off the board in some order. This leads to a group of players including Zimmer, Gordon, Holmes, Jackson, Tyler Beede, and Aaron Nola. Depending on the evaluators they may also include Freeland, Touki Toussaint, and Shawn Newcomb.
The feeling had been that Jackson was locked into one of the top spots, but if a team or two reaches for a true shortstop in Nick Gordon or a guy with now stuff like Holmes or Beede, it is not unreasonable for Jackson to slip to the Phillies. If he does, that could be a coup for the Phillies even if he isn’t a catcher long term.
UPDATE: It was reported today that Jeff Hoffman will have Tommy John surgery. This dramatically changes his status and makes him the most interesting player in the first round. He could go early to a team willing to take the risk, a team could have a strategy similar to Sean Manaea a year ago, or he fall like Lucas Giolito and a team moves their draft to sign him.
Phuture Phillies 
Beede really seems to have fallen off. Think it’s worth picking him up? Or what about Touki? I know he’s more of a thrower than pitcher, but the arm’s electric. Holmes is still a nice pick-up.
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At this point I don’t trust Beede’s command to be there consistently. The stuff isn’t that much better than Holmes or other pitchers on the board at #7, I would personally pass. As for Touki, I love the raw stuff and potential, but if I am the Phillies I want some more safety at #7, in that case I would have Holmes ahead of him on my RHP list.
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I see. Yeah I wouldn’t trust ourselves to be the ones to get Beede on track with command. I get that safety would be a area of concern with Touki. My train of thought is that there is a possibility he could reach the majors around the same time as some of our other top guys (Crawford, Tocci, Pujols, Sandberg).
I do really like Holmes though and would be pretty happy to get him. A nice boost to our pitching depth. A lot of people think he’s a #2, but that’s still very solid.
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The way I see it is Aiken , Kolek, Hoffman, Rondon, and Jackson will most likely be gone by 7. They are prob. That top tier of players right now. Out of the next group I’m starting to feel Holmes a little bit. He’s shot up the boards and has a fastball that sits in mid to high 90s. Another guy I’m starting to buy into is Gordon. Wasn’t so high on him a month ago but reading some reports he looks like the real deal at SS. Of course, there’s always the ultimate boom or bust guy in Gatewood around , too. I’ve heard he could stick at SS and hit 30 plus homers there to he can’t stick at ss and won’t get above AA. If the Phils feel he can find tune his hitting and his power tool is elite hell be tough to pass on.
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Jeff Hoffman to have Tommy John surgery.
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Depending how much the scouts like him, we could always draft him (maybe save some money) and pull off something like the Nats did with Giolito.
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Not sure you save much money with Hoffman. He has a theoretical year of eligibility left, (not that he’ll want to use it), but if he feels low-balled he could go back to school and be a healthy early first round pick next year. And with the way The Phillies handled Wetzler and Monda, I’m not sure they really want to put themselves in a position to have to negotiate on a bonus amount after the pick is made. They’d better be ready to meet the kid’s number, or pass and take someone else.
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Hoffman news not good at all. All this means as 1 less player that’ll make it to Phils.
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Yes, I think that kills any chance that Jackson falls to us. Actually a surprise to see him projected to us.
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Someone might get through to 7 still. If some team (Minnesota?) employs a strategy like the Royals last year and takes a player out of the blue to save money on a high demand player like Sean Manaea was, talent will fall our way. Hoffman is a junior so he could go back for his senior year and hope to regain top pick status.
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Jackson from the same HS as Cole Hamels fwiw
If he’s there at #7 I’m sure the Phillies snag him
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Hoffman’s injury really hurts the Phils at 7. It slices that elite top 4 tier into a top 3, meaning we get the 4th best remaining instead of the 3rd best. I was hoping for Jackson but Hoffman’s injury makes it significantly less likely that he’ll be there. Even BOTH my next two choices, Holmes and Freeland, could be gone. It doesn’t help that Nola and Beede, two guys i think other teams would be higher on, have fallen off a bit. Gordon seems to be the next position prospect behind Jackson, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up going sooner, even top 5, which would help. I know “you can never have too many shortstops” but we need a new foundation, a young core to build around and I don’t trust Ruben with a surplus of talented, young shortstops. Playing Gordon at 2nd takes away from his plus – plus arm strength and neither he nor Crawford has the pop for 3rd base. Whoever we take will automatically become our 1B prospect(Crawford 1a) and I’d be okay with both being shortstops if Ruben wasn’t our GM. Gordon might have more pop than Crawford and of course they’d make a great pairing, but I feel like you can find a potentially great 2B prospect in rounds 2-4 if you’re willing to take one so high. Someone like Forrest Wall, Greg Deichmann, Joey Pankake, Alex Blandino or many others could offer a quality bat at the position without requiring a top 10 pick. We obviously need more 2nd basemen in the system but not necessarily at the expense of the many great arms available in this class. The pitching depth in this class is good enough to erase years of mistakes.
This is going to be the most exciting draft in recent memory. Thankfully Rube didn’t squander picks with more idiotic signings because we’re going to have a lot of good players to choose from with the 7th pick in the first several rounds.
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Not following. Gordon and Crawford would be playing at different levels. There’s no reason one would have to move off of shortstop.
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Until they reach the big leagues, which is the whole point. If all goes well, we’d have two elite top 25 shortstop prospects in two years, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but might not be the best use of our highest pick in over a decade. I have a ton of faith in Crawford and believe he’ll rise quickly and become a 6 level big league shortstop. Like Crawford, Gordon is the best shortstop in his draft class and their values are intricately tied to their ability to play shortstop at the big league level. Crawford lacks power for 3B and there aren’t a lot of 2nd basemen his size…and the same can be said for Gordon, who is essentially the same size. Gordon might have a little more pop in his bat, but also fields his position extremely well, so his positional value decreases at 3b. Crawford has a good arm and Gordon has a great one, but that arm strength would be wasted at 2b.
If our farm system were stocked with young talent, I’d have no issue with taking Gordon, but sadly, it’s not. I’d love for the Phillies to be able to take the best available player with every pick, and normally advocate such an approach, but this isn’t an ordinary pick. This is a franchise defining selection, that should provide a cornerstone for the Phillies future. Any player taken will be counted on either to bat 1-5 everyday or anchor the rotation. I like Gordon and think he and Crawford could someday replace Rollins and Utley, batting somewhere between 1-3 in the lineup…and yes, it would be great to have two slick fielding middle infielders with plus hit tools hitting so high in the order…maybe I’m talking myself into taking Gordon- who I definitely like as a prospect…but I’d prefer Alex Jackson batting 3rd-5th and playing catcher. I also love Grant Holmes and really wish we signed Kyle Freeland 3 years ago, but maybe if they’re all gone or want so much money it would hurt the rest of our draft, I’d take Gordon. Since I wrote that last post, I heard Rube most likely won’t return next year and his presence was my primary issue with having two premium shortstop prospects. I simply do not trust him with such a valuable surplus.
Are there any possible “money saving” Hunter Renfroe-type picks at #7, who might enable the Phillies to be more aggressive in later rounds? I’m talking about players still projected in the 1st round, but not typically in the top 10. Maybe someone like Braxton Davidson, Max Pentecost or Derek Fisher?…and about two dozen pitchers fit that description. Would the savings justify such a strategy? This draft is very deep in prep pitching, but signing them away from college after our first two picks will be expensive.
There’s a good chance Gordon, Holmes and Jackson will all be gone by 7…so who would you pick? Assuming Kolek, Rodon and Aiken are also off the board…i’d go with either Touki and Freeland…who couldn’t be more different.
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BTW everybodyhits…..was Kyle Freeland, a skinny HS lefty throwing in the low-to-mid 90s three years ago?
I would think at the 35th round there wasn’t much excitement about him, unless he had already committed to Evansville and was not going to sign unless he was a top tier pick for more bonus money.
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Freeland 3 years ago was a skinny kid throwing in the mid to high 80s with a limited secondary arsenal. He wanted to go to school and there was no way you are signing that kid for the money he wants
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I wonder what kind of impact recent failures of the ‘toolsy’ players would have on the Phillies draft? I guess the scenario that I am pondering – if someone like a Gettys were to fall to the second round, would the Phillies take a shot? I would have to think the answer could certainly be yes, but he is someone that would fit the high risk lottery selections that have not really panned out in recent years.
(correct me if I am wrong, but would Dom Brown have fallen under this category? If yes, he would be an exception to the many other toolsy prospects that have either failed to deliver, or are still very early in their career and the verdict is still out on them).
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I would take Gettys at 48, they managed Sandberg a little later last year because they knew his number. You can swing away there, swinging wildly at 7 seems foolish
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Would Touki be considered a “wild swing”? His control and change have improved this spring.
How about Hoffman? With so many young pitchers getting tmj surgeries and successfully recovering, would there be any advantage to taking a talented young arm who has already had the surgery? Although here seems to be a general correlation between past injuries and future ones, this tends less the case with elbow issues post tmj. Injuries derail so many pitching careers, that a clean bill of health and smooth mechanics should be a priority for any pitcher picked so high.
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