The Case For Taking Nick Gordon

2014 Draft

There has been a lot of noise that the Phillies are in on a HS position player. The two names are a pair of shortstops in Jacob Gatewood and Nick Gordon. Gatewood is the boom bust hitting prospect of the draft, if he hits and plays defense he is Troy Tulowitzki, if not he is a mistake hitting 3B who may never get past AA. More interesting is Nick Gordon (Tom Gordon‘s other son).

Nick Gordon compares favorably to 2013 first round pick J.P. Crawford. Both have their greatest strength as their ability to play shortstop. At the plate Gordon brings plus speed (he is not a burner like Dee), plus hit potential, and fringe average power. Gordon has an edge in arm with Gordon hitting the low-90s as a reliever. Crawford in retrospect was much more polished than we thought and it remains to be seen how Gordon looks in pro-ball.

All of this should add up to the Phillies passing on Gordon due to the presence of Crawford.  But lets just explore a scenario where the Phillies have Nick Gordon as the top player on their board in front of a pitcher.

A Nick Gordon is Safer than a Pitcher:  Pitchers get hurt, it is just a fact of life.  Hitters get hurt too, but their injuries tend to be less catastrophic to careers.  Gordon carries some extra safety to his profile as well.  As a shortstop, his floor in the field is likely utility player.  More than that Gordon’s arm strength would allow a team to move him to the mound if he is horrible in the field and work to recoup some value.  Either way Gordon is likely to be safer than the pitcher on the board behind him.

Trades:  It isn’t just that the Phillies could trade Gordon, but they could trade Crawford for not just a pitcher, but whatever piece they need.  A top shortstop prospect is the best commodity in baseball and can be traded for almost anything.  If the Phillies find themselves with both Crawford and Gordon panning out they are in a very good position.  Any prospect can be traded at any time.  The Reds a couple of years back took Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso in the 1st rounds of drafts when they already had Devin Mesoraco and Joey Votto in their organization, they were able to flip them for Mat Latos with 4 years of control left.

Crawford Could Fail:  Right now J.P. Crawford is seeing his stock soar, and for the most part has a very safe profile.  He still has not passed the upper minors or the major leagues in terms of challenges.  The road to the majors has many twists and turns and you aren’t a sure thing until you are a sure thing.  It is way too early to be carving Crawford’s name in as the shortstop for the next decade.  That time may come, and come soon, but until then there are many traps in the way and having another franchise type shortstop in the system is never a bad thing.

You Can Play Them Both:  Just because you have two major league shortstops does not mean you have reached an immovable wall.  There is no problem with shifting one to second base as an elite defender for the position.  Log jams have a way of working themselves out over time, but until they do, you can move a shortstop almost anywhere on the diamond.  You may not get peak value, but you are going to get value.

The Future is Unknown:  In the end there are too many variables between when a HSer is drafted and when they make the majors.  The organizational needs can shift greatly over the next few years.  Right now the system is weak on pitching, but even with this draft they could follow Gordon with a run of starting pitching that is a few breakouts away from returning strength to the org.  Trying to predict your major league needs 3-5 years out is a losing proposition.  You take the asset and deal with the consequences when you need to.  The draft is littered with misses based on need.

Personally I don’t think Nick Gordon will be the top player on my board at #7, but he will be in the Top 3-5 available there.  As much as a high ceiling pitcher would look really nice at #7, if I am the Phillies and my scouts tell me Nick Gordon is the best player on the board, I am taking Nick Gordon.  Not having room for your two top shortstop prospects might be the best problem to have in baseball.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

26 thoughts on “The Case For Taking Nick Gordon”

  1. I’m not sure if you were saying they should consider passing on Gordon because of Crawford, but teams almost never consider their strengths when setting a draft board. Sometimes weaknesses will push a player up the board.

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  2. Its a shame there isnt Archie Bradley waiting there at #7, but two many shortstops is never a bad thing I guess

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  3. I’m still hoping for a pitcher who can become an ace. Lots of risk though with a HS arm.

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    1. You never know what teams will do when they are ‘on the clock’, but if Gordon and Gatewood should both go before the 7th pick, along with another position player, then the quailty pitcher you desire, may be there at 7.

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      1. I would say the top tier of arms would be (In no real order, per se):
        Aiken
        Beede
        Kolek
        Rodon
        Hoffman

        So you really only need 2 position players to go before pick 7. The problem is other than Jackson, no hitter in this draft has exactly showered themselves in glory this Spring. Beyond those Top 5 pitchers you still have plenty of quality arms to choose from, guys who could still reach #2 ceilings and are even young enough you can hope for a small change that might get them to Ace level.

        Also, nice summary, Matt. Gatewood’s too high risk for me at 7, but I actually came out of my preview of Gordon liking him more than I expected. Sure, part of me wants a Pitcher, but I don’t want to be the team that decides it needs a Pitcher and takes a guy with a #3 profile, while leaving a potential star position player fall to someone else. Take the best available and trade him for a Pitcher later if you need to.

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        1. I don’t know if Beede is in that group any more. I feel like he is now in the Holmes, Nola, Freeland, Finnegan, Newcomb, Toussaint tier. But the point remains the same, it is possible someone falls and then you take them immediately. If the Phillies hadn’t been involved in the Wetzler scandal, I would be saying they could take advantage of their positioning and get the guy they like best from that second tier and save money in the process by playing them against each other. But I don’t think they could pull that off.

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          1. On Beede, I think he’s the 5th guy in that group and probably stays top 7 or 8 pick because of the stuff and somewhat better control he showed last year.

            Saving the money would be great because someone’s going to drop to 48 and you’d love to be able to overslot there, but there’s enough depth that even a slot pick in Round 2 could end up being a pretty special prospect.

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  4. It’s funny, although I agree that you always pick the best player available, if you feel that a couple of players are relatively indistinguishable, then need and depth are relevant to the pick. That is a very long way of saying that I don’t want them picking this guy unless he clearly grades out as the best player available at the time they pick.

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  5. Is there any chance of Alex Jackson falling to the Phillies? If he doesn’t fall (which is the most likely scenario), I would be content with picking Nick Gordon.

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  7. I have a really tough time believing, that at number 7 there isn’t a all-star player. Its the reason you have scouts and a gm and cross checkers, This imo is silly, to say we can pick Gordon but he most likely is a utility player is crazy. This is the area where the future of the team is determined. I would bet right there will be at least 10 or more future all-star players, who come out of this draft, Its Amaro. omg am I saying this, job to find them.

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    1. Gordon’s ceiling is everything that Crawford’s is and possibly more. You obviously didn’t read the full post. It was talking about floor in that part, comparing a shortstop whose floor is utility to that of a pitcher.

      There is little chance of 10 all-stars in any draft.

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  10. I know this is off topic but is Mitch Gueller repeating Williamsport? Also, when Shane Watson returns where does he go to? I say Lakewood. There he pitches 20 or 30 innings and based on performance they will move him up to Clearwater or keep him in Lakewood.

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      1. U prob won’t see Watson til the 2nd half of the season. It’s prob a coin flip if he’s in LWood or CWater.
        As for Gueller, it looks like he’s repeating WPort. If he struggles this year I wouldn’t be surprised if Phils try him hitting next year.

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  11. Is everyone forgetting about Roman Quinn??? I don’t see a problem with taking the best player available but don’t you think 3 high ceiling shortstops is overkill ?

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    1. If all 3 end up playable in the Majors, move Quinn to Center, Crawford to Second and keep Gordon at Short. Their bats would probably play (though Crawford would not have the power you like at Second) and you could end up with 3 plus or better Defenders in key up the middle spots.

      Or you trade one or more of them if they’re all MLB worthy. Overkill on top tier shortstops would be a good problem to have.

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