Box Score Recap – 5/1/2014

Box Score Recap

Maikel Franco went 3-5 with a double and a home run, his second on the season. It’s a little early to assume he’s turned a corner from the trash fire that was his first three weeks of the season, but he’s got three doubles and two home runs compared to only two Ks in his last five games, and is OPSing over .800 in his last ten. Encouraging, if nothing else.

Luis Garcia closed things out for Lehigh Valley, allowing a hit and recording three ground ball outs. I could bang the drum again on pushing him to the bigs, but you can just go back and read it again – everything’s the same except all the stats are bigger except for the goose-egg in front of the “R” would now be only a goose-egg in front of an “ER”. I realize Garcia’s not the Savior of the big league bullpen – we all know that’s Ken Giles, (praise be His Name) – but he’s probably got a better shot at not making me yell at my TV and wake up the dogs than Jeff Manship or Shawn Camp.

And a couple notes on Lakewood. Glad to see Drew Anderson shake off the rust – he allowed 1R, 4H, 1BB, with an encouraging 7Ks in 5.2IP in his second start of the year. Deivi Grullon and Jan Hernandez both hit their first full-season home runs, and J.P. Crawford continues to get on base – his OBP sits at .402 after getting on four times in yesterday’s twin bill. He’s got 10BB and just five Ks in his last 10 games. I remain, as always, down with JPC. But I feel like you already knew that, because you’re aware of my ways.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20140501 5-1-14 boxscores

37 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 5/1/2014”

  1. Crawford hitting .355 / .512 / .548 in his last 10 games, .297 / .402 / .418 on the year. When does he become our #1 prospect? Not yet, but if Franco doesn’t start hitting it could happen this year.

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      1. Yep, agreed. Nothing about a knee jerk reaction to Franco’s slow start, everything about his showing no slowing down with the adjustment to A ball.

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      2. Just to expand upon this a bit …

        The pre season consensus around here, as I read it, was that Crawford was #3 but likely to be #1 by year end. Which is a little odd if you think about it … if you believe in the latter, why isn’t he the #1 prospect now?

        The answer IMO was risk – specifically, the risk that he would not continue to progress. While it’s just one month, I think he’s put that issue to bed. At least at this level.

        I LIKE Biddle and Franco. But:

        Of the three, who has the highest ceiling? Crawford clearly.

        The other two have a proximity edge – but, in rating prospects, we care about proximity mainly because of risk – i.e., a player who has succeeded at a higher level has a lower risk factor, generally. But in this case, both Franco and Biddle still have fairly high risk factors for prospects of their stature/level – command for Biddle, approach, swing, and defensive questions for Franco. And while any player in A ball has a fairly high risk factor, IMO Crawford carries about as little risk as it is possible to carry at that level. There just don’t appear to be serious holes in his game.

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        2. And none of that is a knock on either Biddle or Franco. I think both will be solid or better major league players. I think that Crawford will be a star – but I would be surprised if he wasn’t at least a solid regular.

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            1. Yeah, I see that. I think the risk factor on Franco is pretty high though – at least if we are talking about stardom. I think a lot needs to break right for him to be a star. (Though the power tool and hit tool are likely enough to make him at least a solid regular.) I guess my point was that I think that, despite being 3 levels lower, Crawford actually carries less risk.

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        3. I’m pretty high on Crawford (I voted for him ahead of Biddle in our top 30), but I don’t think he’s quite past Franco yet, for two reasons:

          (1) Crawford may be very low risk for a player in A ball, but he’s still in A ball. He has a lot of levels before making the big leagues, and a lot can go wrong in that time.

          (2) Crawford may be very good, but he lacks elite tools to compare to Franco’s power and (potential) hit. I would actually say that Franco has the higher ceiling, albeit with plenty of risk that he doesn’t reach it.

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          1. I hear what you’re saying. Focusing mainly on #2, this is why I disagree:

            (1) I wouldn’t say that Franco’s hit tool is potentially elite – it’s potentially plus, but so is Crawford’s.
            (2) Plate discipline/approach isn’t traditionally a “tool,” but it is very important. I think Crawford is potentially elite in that respect.
            (3) If Crawford’s defense and arms are not quite potentially elite, they are close.
            (4) It’s probably true that Crawford doesn’t have a tool to compare to Franco’s power.- but IMO his broad base of tools (average or plus or near elite across the board) trumps Franco’s one exceptional tool, a couple solid tools, but with a couple of holes in his game.

            Stated another way – IF he develops mid range power, Crawford could be almost as good a hitter as Franco (again, we’re talking ceilings), – probably at least 50 more points of OBP versus maybe 75 fewer points of SLG. With Crawford having an edge everywhere else – defense, position, speed – that’s a MUCH higher ceiling. If everything breaks right for Franco, he’s maybe a 4 or 5 WAR player in his best years. Crawford could be a 6 WAR player. He probably won’t be, but nor will Franco likely be a 5 WAR player.

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  2. Nice to see Franco coming along, and to see a nice line for Jan Hernandez. Now if only the major league third baseman would follow suit…

    Speaking of third base prospects, Matt just retweeted something about the Phillies being hot after Jacob Gatewood, a high school SS/3B who is projected to go high in the draft. He wasn’t included in the post about the draft from earlier this week, so I looked him up (apologies to those who have been following this more closely) and Gatewood is described as being a “boom or bust prospect” with “light tower power” and a suspect hit tool. I guess if at first you don’t succeed …

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    1. I’m really hoping this is just something thrown out there to throw other scouts off.

      We should grab a pitcher there and at 7th I almost guarantee the best player available there will be a pitcher.

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    2. I really hope this is just thrown out there to draw suspicion off their real intended pick.

      With the pick we should select a pitcher. And I’m sure that at the 7th spot the best player available will be a pitcher.

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    3. That line from the movie ‘trouble with the curve’ – “his hands drift, he can’t hit a curveball”, holy crow gatewood’s hands and body wander all over the place.

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  3. I feel like our top 3 prospects will all converge around the top 30-40 prospect range by the end of the year. That may be too low on JPC though, at this rate that’s a top 20 profile he’s working on right now.

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  4. Who are the next top 100 candidates that are currently in our system? Could Dugan sniff it after he returns from his injury and continues to put up numbers? Could the young guys Tocci and Grullon make a run at it if they perform in Lakewood? How about Quinn if he shows his speed is back?

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    1. That’s a really good question. The following is quite speculative …

      I like Dugan, but he’s not the kind of prospect who gets on top 100 lists IMO, barring a true breakout season (as opposed to the quite encouraging, but not spectacular, start he was off to prior to the injury).

      Tocci maybe – but IMO still striking out too much with the rest of his profile. Would not be in my top 100,

      Grullon is a wild card. Obviously if he sticks in A ball and plays well he has a good shot. Even a solid performance in A- would put him on the radar. But way too soon to predict either happening.

      IMO the best chance the organization has to get a 4th top 100 prospect is their draft choice.

      Beyond those guys and that pick, I think the following players have a shot with a true breakout season: Sandberg, Quinn. A REAL wild card is Encarnicion. None of these guys have MUCH of a chance, though.

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      1. I doubt any guys that will only play short season will have a shot, other than the #7 pick, which I automatically assume will slot into the top 100. If we get just one true breakout from the above mentioned candidates, we could be looking at 5 top 100 dudes this winter.

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        1. Sandberg, if he breaks out in A-, will end the season in A ball. And Crawford was top 100 after playing just briefly in A ball. Granted the fact that he was a first round pick was a factor there. But, while Sandberg has a ton of upside, that kind of breakout this season is probably not likely.

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          1. I tend to think Sandberg will need Williamsport to gain more skill. Right now he is all projection…kind of like a lot of others in the system. I think full season ball will be asking too much at this time.

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      3. Tocci is a future Ben Revere type minus the blistering speed but better routes in the outfield and Tocci will hit atleast one home run if he makes it to the majors

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        1. At a comparative age with Tocci. .Ben was a senior in Georgia high school at this point, hitting against high school pitchers.
          I see Tocci a tick above Ben in 7 years.

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        2. Other than they both don’t have power now and they both play center field, there are not many similarities between Tocci and Ben. Tocci’s arm is 4 grades better than Ben, Tocci’s routes might be better now. Tocci takes larger swings at the plate with more loft and solid contact, Ben just puts the bat on the ball. It really is not a good comparison.

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      5. What about Tommy Joseph? The concussions are a real concern, but if he plays a full season and continues to crush the ball the way he did in the opening weeks of the season, he’d have to be considered, no?

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    2. I would say those 3 are definitely guys to watch. Yoel Mecias could vault up lists if he shows his stuff when he is pitching again. The #7 pick is a lock for Top 100s. Sandberg is a guy who could make the jump as well.

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    1. Don’t mention forks and Larry Greene in the same sentence…it might give him ideas…

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    2. I agree. Prob the last straw in L.Greene. Was a little optimistic when he started hit but quickly cooled off.

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    3. He was paid first round money, so he’s going to stick around for the next few years, but yes: barring some kind of miracle he falls into that Anthony Hewitt category.

      One thing I wonder with Greene: wasn’t he recruited to play football at Alabama? I have no idea how much of a top recruit he was but you have to wonder if he might just bag baseball and pursue a football scholarship. I can think of a couple cases where first round picks have done that–Drew Henson, that FSU QB (Weinke?), and Dee Jenkins, who went to high school with me, was a first rounder for the Red Sox, and came back to play quarterback for South Carolina.

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      1. I dont think Nick Saban would want anything to do with him anymore and if he came to practice as out of shape as he did that one year for the phillies Saban might make him cry

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        1. By most accounts it seems like he is in better shape this year. I wasn’t suggesting he would still go to Alabama. But if he was good enough to be seriously recruited by Alabama you maybe could see a second-tier school taking a flier on him, someplace like (just wildly theorizing here) Georgia Tech or South Florida. Just a thought. If I were LGJr and I had a chance to bank my bonus and take a free college scholarship, I might have to give it some thought.

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          2. Was he offered by alabaama?? a lot of guys are looked at but the key is if he was offered. If he has a legit offer from alabama he should have took it, they pay better than the phillies,

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  6. Pretty good night on the farm. Franco, Anderson, Hernandez, Grullon, and Crawford all with good days. I’ve been kinda waiting for Hernandez to bust out a little. Maybe he’ll start now

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