Season Predictions

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Last year’s predictions went pretty well so I thought I would give it another try this year.  These predictions are based purely on opinion, and have no guarantee of coming true.

1. Both Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle do not exhaust their prospect eligibility.  Both are not called up until rosters expand.  Biddle puts up good numbers but is blocked in the major league level and left to make adjustments in AAA.

2.  Yoel Mecias comes back healthy and is a borderline Top 5 prospect in the system.  He is promoted to Clearwater after dominating Lakewood for a few starts.

3. Roman Quinn plays SS in Clearwater when he is back on the field, the Phillies begin experimenting with him at 2B after J.P. Crawford is promoted at the beginning of August.

4. Kelly Dugan‘s walk rate rebounds to pre-Reading levels.  He makes his debut in August after the Phillies trade Marlon Byrd to the Detroit Tigers.

5.  Jose Pujols takes the spotlight in Williamsport with his home run numbers, his strikeout is still well over 25%.  Prospect evaluators still have him behind both Sandberg and Grullon on the team.

6.  Both Perci Garner and Hoby Milner are moved to the bullpen full time by midseason, Garner is consideration for a callup when the rosters expand.

7.  Severino Gonzalez struggles as both his walk rate and home run rate climb.  He continues to have a decent strikeout rate.

8.  Carlos Tocci is promoted to Clearwater in July, Jiandido Tromp is the full time CF in Lakewood until the end of the season.

9.  Jim Murphy continues to put up good numbers in Lehigh Valley, philly.com runs articles on why he is better than Darin Ruf and the Phillies should demote Ruf and bring up Murphy.

10. Next year’s Top 10:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. #7 Pick
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Yoel Mecias
  5. Jesse Biddle
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Deivi Grullon
  8. Carlos Tocci
  9. Kelly Dugan
  10. Cord Sandberg
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

29 thoughts on “Season Predictions”

  1. Your ranking of Biddle at 5 and Franco at 3 is interesting, especially since they will be ready to step into Phillies jobs at the start of next season. I can understand being high on Crawford and we certainly should get someone good with the #7 pick, but Mecias above Biddle is a fairly serious Biddle downgrade. I like the placement of Grullon.

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    1. In a Top 100 context I would have Biddle as static in this scenario. I really like Mecias, if he comes back healthy with the changeup you are looking at a Top 100 prospect, if he takes another step forward he is potentially a monster.

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  2. After terrorizing the Eastern League for 2 months, hitting .320 with 14hr while striking out around 15% Aaron Altherr is being called up to the bigs where he takes over for Domonik Brown who is traded to the Texas Rangers.

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  3. I’m looking for Mike Nesseth to continue the success he had at Reading this year at Lehigh Valley. Hopefully he’ll be in the bigs before August!

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    1. Nesseth is a huge below the radar guy. Reports last year are that he was throwing in the mid to high 90s when he goes side arm – the Diekman solution!

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  4. Will Byrd be willing to waive his NTC to go to a WS favorite! (tic)
    Does he even have a NTC in his two-year agreement?

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  5. I think the tradeability of Burkett and Byrd is an under appreciated reason why they were decent FA signings. Neither is going to get us a top prospect, but, assuming that they perform well, both should bring some value at the deadline if Amaro shops them.

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    1. Hey, badly hobbled Jim Thome still netter Simon and Lino. Awful Valdez begat Horst. None of those are game changers, but they’ve all had their moments.

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      1. I spend a lot of time trying to deflate people’s expectations regarding the return from trading veterans, and I am quite confident that I am correct, but you don’t want to go too far in the other direction either. Also, contracts enter into it as well – Burkett may be more tradeable than, or at least as tradeable as, Lee because of his contract. I did say might; you could imagine a desperate team trading a top 50 prospect for Lee, even if it is not likely, but no one will give an “A” prospect for Burkett. But it may actually be easier to find someone to give us a lesser prospect for Burkett.

        I think it will be an interesting trade deadline. Some of the “tear it down” advocates probably will be the first to criticize Amaro if he is indeed active at the deadline, as he is unlikely to get the haul of prospects some people imagine. But my attitude is shifting a bit – not changing my mind, as much as acknowledging changing circumstances. I STILL don’t advocate a “tear it down” approach, and a lot will depend upon prospect development (not much point to trading a veteran for scraps if there isn’t a decent prospect waiting in the wings). But I think the team probably should be more active at the deadline this year than they were last year.

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        1. If it truly comes down to trading Burkett come July. The one team I would put on my radar is the Orioles, because he lives in Maryland and that is the team of his preference. Plus they did show a little interest in him over the winter.Now what could get in return in trade value…probably minimal return.

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    1. Fifteen years ago Alex Rios was.just as rail-thin and bulk lacking, not sure about his mustache though.

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        1. alex rios is the guy the blue jays gave up on and now seems to play well for the rangers , and he is also a guy I would not mind seeing playing in red pinstripes

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  8. Oh I see so this is stuff MattWinks wants to see happen. Carlos Tocci will hit below .220 again.

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    2. Given that he is repeating a level, .I doubt that very much.

      That said, I am more skeptical than some on Tocci long term. The more I learn about the game, the more skeptical i am about that type of player. Even assuming that he adds significant strength, he still profiles as a sub .100 ISO player (I have a hard time seeing him develop Alex Rios power). Those players tend to have poor BB rates even if disciplined (because they scare no one) and mediocre to poor BABIP (because they don’t make good contact).* They need to do essentially everything else right to succeed. And while Tocci has some big positives, I don’t really see enough to overcome the likely lack of even mid range power. I hope that I am wrong (or that he packs on more muscle than I expect he will, which would change his outlook dramatically).

      *Yes, there are exceptions to both points, but not many.

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  9. Agreed 100%. And I’m sure you’re not as skeptical as I am about Tocci. The offensive upside (which is so far from being obtained) is not even that impressive in my eyes.

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    1. Well no, I’m not as skeptical as you are, and honestly have a hard time understanding your level of skepticism.

      (1) While I don’t think he’ll get as strong as A. Rios,if he does – and there’s SOME chance of that – he’ll be a star, because he’ll contribute a lot more defensively than Rios (and may well have a better approach).

      (2) Even if he doesn’t develop that much strength (and he problably won’t), despite my skepticism, he COULD at least be a decent regular, say a 2 WAR per season player. Ben Revere with less speed but more defense.

      (3) Even failing that, he could be a useful bench guy.

      So I’m not NEARLY as skeptical as you are. I just would put him a little lower than some people around here do, because his ceiling (absent an IMO unlikely dramatic increase in strength) seems low.

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  11. I have been saying Quinn at second since they drafted him. He could be like the Marlin version of Luis Castillo. (when he was good and fast)

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    1. good comparison but im hoping for a little more power , maybe coco crisp but infield or maybe back to CF

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  12. how did biddle lose his control ? home town pressure , bad pitching coaches , maybe exaggerated expectations , still early , im not gonna panic unless he grows bad mustache

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  13. A.J. Burnett. I think Burkett pitched in the 80s -90s and likely will bring little back in return at trade deadline. 🙂

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