Players:
Ben Revere – 25 – MLB
Tony Gwynn Jr – 31 – MLB
Tyson Gillies – 25 – AAA
Zach Collier – 23 – AA
Aaron Altherr – 23 – AA
Carlos Tocci – 18 – A-
Venn Biter – 19 – SS
Steven Golden – 19 – SS
Herlis Rodriguez – 19 – SS
Jiandido Tromp – 20 – SS
Positional Overview: In 2012-2013 offseason the Phillies traded away Vance Worley and Trevor May for Ben Revere. In his first year he only hit .305/.338/.352, with less than stellar defense, but Revere does profiles as a solid major leaguer for the next few years. Which is good, because AAA is barren of starters and Aaron Altherr still needs plenty of time to get from AA to the majors. The big name on the list is 18 year old Carlos Tocci, who will be the youngest player on the Blueclaws for the second year in a row. Below that are some interesting names who could breakout or fade away.
Future of the Position: There are a lot of potential issues with Carlos Tocci‘s game, starting with his slight frame. However, at 18 he already shows great instincts for the game and is a premium center field defender. It is probably going to be another 3+ years of bulking up before we really know what type of player Tocci will be, but there is tremendous upside down the road.
End of the Road?: Since being acquired from Seattle for Cliff Lee, Tyson Gillies has been all over various rankings. Up until 2013 his numbers on the field have been pretty good, but a combination of injury and a skillset that may not play in the majors have limited his path to the majors. In 2013 the Phillies altered his swing in an effort to get more power out of it, and while Gillies hit 10 HRs, his line across two levels was .241/.298/.387. If he doesn’t improve on those numbers quickly, he could be off the 40 man by midseason. In AA Zach Collier has been struggling through a similar cycle of injuries and ineffectiveness. He had a very poor year for Reading in 2013, but picked up his pace at the end of the year to improve his numbers slightly. Collier has better skills now than Gillies, but he is going to need to put them on a field in 2014 to avoid being buried on the bench going forward.
What is a Ceiling?: Often times when a prospect is labeled as “toolsy” or “athletic” we automatically label their ceiling as being near infinite and their floor as a whole in the ground. This happened to Aaron Altherr for much of his journey through the minors. The truth is that his ceiling isn’t that spectacular and his floor is relatively safe. Right now Altherr can play centerfield with good pop and speed, their some swing and miss in his swing due to his size, and his approach is still a work in progress. Some see his power continuing to blossom while he stays in centerfield, but it is more likely if that happens he falls back to a corner, which is fine if the power is big. All in all Altherr is somewhere between major league regular and above average 4th outfielder and that is just fine.
The Williamsport Logjam: Currently the OF corners of Williamsport are owned by Cord Sandberg and Jose Pujols, but in centerfield it gets much more interesting with Venn Biter, Steven Golden, Herlis Rodriguez, and Jiandido Tromp all on pace to make their 2014 debuts in short season ball. OF the group Tromp has played the most CF and his the best defender, but each could see time there. Given that he has already put up two subpar GCL seasons, Golden could be on the block, or Biter who was only drafted in 2013 could repeat the GCL. Whoever emerges with the playing time could be an interesting player to follow as each member of the group offers a unique and different skill set, but all have the tools to at least climb onto the next Top 30 prospect list.
By my reading of these lists, I’d say the deepest positions in the system seem to be 3B, CF and SS (maybe not in that precise order, depending on where you think Quinn ends up). This is pretty good news in that those are 3 high-value positions where the Phillies have traditionally had trouble developing their own talent. No SS came out of the system between Rollins and Galvis, no 3B came out between Rolen and Asche, and no CF has come out of the system since … I dunno, I guess Marlon Byrd came up as a CF?
The flip side to this is the utter desolation of the system in terms of starting pitching prospects, but hopefully this is something the organization is going to address in this year’s draft.
LikeLike
Oh wait, I forgot catcher, lot of depth there too, maybe more than at short if you think Quinn is moving to CF. I wonder how you would rank the positions in terms of depth Matt?
LikeLike
I would probably go 3B, C, Corner OF. I realize the last is a bit of a surprise, but I like the upside at the position in the lower minors, I am high on Dugan, and the combination of Brown and Byrd make it the strongest on the major league level. If you think Quinn is a CF I can see a case there. As for SS, I really like Crawford, but there are way too many barren levels
LikeLike
If Quinn sticks at SS (a big if, but it seems like the organization is going to let him give it another year there), then that’s two Top 10 prospects at the position, plus Galvis, who could still develop into an average major league player if he manages to hit even a little bit. That’s some depth, though I concede that it’s based on 2 big ifs and one guy who has yet to play more than a handful of games at A ball.
LikeLike
Michael Bourn came up to Philly as a CF but was dealt quickly.
LikeLike
Good point, I knew I was forgetting someone.
LikeLike
Donald and Villar were SS, Gose was a CF, D’arnaud and Marson were C in the Phillies system.
LikeLike
Yeah, I know all those names of course, but did any of them play a game for the team at the major league level? My point was that they haven’t filled any of these positions from within in a long time.
LikeLike
Marson did. He even homered once.
LikeLike
Ok, I stand corrected. But again … that’s not really filling the position from within in the sense that Cody Asche has at third. That was my point.
LikeLike
Wasn’t Cord Sandberg supposed to have the athleticism to handle CF? I’m curious why the org wouldn’t at least try him out there before sticking him in a corner.
LikeLike
It was always a question, I haven’t heard anyone who think he can handle it long term unless he develops perfect route running and instincts. The Phillies have recognized this and everything plays in a corner position, it also looks like his reads are really good in left field and he is comfortable out there. He could see some limited time in center, but it was always a stretch.
LikeLike
As a righty hitter with speed and arm-worth fielding and enough power to back up outfielders, Altherr gets my vote for best NEAR OFer. BUT, we know there is a problem with strikeout…he had 140 of them in ’13 at Clwtr FSL.
Is this a case of “trouble with the curve”? Does history and experience indicate this is an issue that can be cured…at least subject to moderation over Reading and Lehigh Valley?
With the skills mentioned above, it would be a misdemeanor if we can’t get to a “cure.”
LikeLike
He does have some issues with off speed pitching, but not to a fatal amount. I wouldn’t expect his strikeout rate to ever be below 20%, but a lot of that has to do with inherent swing and miss with 6’5″ player with long arms swinging a baseball bat.
LikeLike
When it comes to Gillies, if he has a somewhat productive season, perhaps come July he can be used as a chip in a package, whether the team is buying or selling..
LikeLike