Keith Law Ranks Phillies System #14 in Baseball

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There will be a full recap and reaction to all of Keith Law’s rankings at the end of the week when all of his work as been released.

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

15 thoughts on “Keith Law Ranks Phillies System #14 in Baseball

    1. But seriously, I am not surprised that we have moved up a good amount in Law’s rankings because he really loved this recent draft we had. If I remember correctly he praised the Sandberg pick and really liked Crawford

      1. Yeah, it is the recent draft. Liking Knapp, Sandberg, Hernandez and Sweaney was surprising. Due to Short Season most evaluators will not change their ‘upside’ opinion for poor performance. BUT, it seems often the upside goes even higher if they prospect does well in shortlooks.

    2. I meant to write this piece last year, but never finished it. But if you look at the data, Keith Law likes the farm system more than any other prospect ranker. It is pretty consistent, Baseball Prospectus as consistently been the lowest

      1. I doesn’t help that BP hates franco and biddle. in my opinion silly individual rankings. Obviously im not a professional but when everyone else is one thing and a single org says something else, I go with the majority.

        1. They have their reasons and methodology though. Both of those guys have huge red flags for BP’s rating system (the bad BB rate by Biddle and the extremely low BB rate by Franco obviously). Granted, a lot of their ranking system is their algorithm for predicting future performance and less on pure scouting so that is to be expected.

          FWIW, all the way up to the year he broke into the Majors, they had Chase Utley labeled as a utility IF at best whose defense wouldn’t allow him to stay at 2B. So there are definite shortcomings to their process.

          On an unrelated note, I definitely appreciate the efforts to “improve” the site but the new design really needs to be tweaked as its really rough on the eyes right now.

          1. “FWIW, all the way up to the year he broke into the Majors, they had Chase Utley labeled as a utility IF at best whose defense wouldn’t allow him to stay at 2B.”

            Really? Do you have any links to that? That was slightly before I paid attention to the farm so I could be off base, but I was under the impression that Utley’s floor was that and his ceiling was thought to be a Todd Walker type who had a decent bat but was a liability in the field.

  1. Sounds about right maybe a little higher than I was expecting. Imagine what it could be without us being ravaged by injury.

    1. Does he take into acoount the Morgan, Watson and Quinn injuries and how two of the three could be adversely affected career-wise by their specific injury…e.g. Morgan, shoulder and Quinn, Ach Heal? Reports on Watson seem to be optimistic.

  2. Keith Law has an irrational love of the Phillies. I don’t trust that guy.

    And no I’m not being serious.

    1. I know you’re obviously joking but Keith has always been completely fair towards the Phillies and our prospects. He has always been very willing to explain and defend his rationale both on ESPN and on here back in the day when James was running things and he always had very good reasoning. He was one of the few national guys that was very low on Kyle Drabek and it turns out he was completely and utterly correct about him. He took a ton of crap on PP back then when he made those comments.

    1. I think Law over-grades us by about 5 positions, but we are certainly in the middle third and quantifying more finely than that probably isn’t even an educated guess. The big league team is more quantifiable, since we are looking at actual W-L, not projected whether or not we can get more or less than a handful of plus-performing major leaguers over the next half dozen years. By both last season’s W-L percentage and the projected team record for next season, we are less than an average team at the MLB level. We are drafting in the primo spot we are this year, because last season we were the 7th worst team in baseball and 3rd worst in our league. Clearly a bottom third team. In 2012 we were an average major league team.

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