General Discussion – Week of 6-24-2013 – “Doesn’t it mean ‘Saint Diego’?” Edition

Weekly Discussion

Late night Phillies this week. When will the West Coast realize East Coast people like stuff to happen earlier? Never, I fear.

146 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-24-2013 – “Doesn’t it mean ‘Saint Diego’?” Edition”

  1. Worst-case scenario: the Phillies go 6-4 on the road trip and RAJ decides to add some pieces instead of subtracting. He trades more young pieces for some veteran relievers and a veteran bat. He uses injuries as an excuse again and claims that with Utley and Ruiz back, the team is once again a World Series contender. Down the stretch, Howard, Utley, and Rollins get hurt, the new veteran pieces fail to work out after brief hot streaks (except for one of the relievers, who was supposed to be a shutdown set-up man–he gets shelled, since RAJ has a knack for finding guys with this habit), and the team finishes below .500 without having rejuvenated the organization with new young talent brought in by getting rid of players like Lee, Papelbon, and Utley, who most likely are dying to get out of town.

    Like

  2. After watching the Mets series unfold like it did, it pains me to say this but this team needs to start fresh. I love the Phillies more than probably someone should. I have been through highs(World Champs) and lows(Ed Wade and the Francona years). The last 6 years have been the absolute best minus the fact that we should have probably beaten the Yankees. If only Cole was Cole and Lidge could cover 3rd. There is just a complete lack of energy. Besides the fact that Frandsen saved Saturday, lost in the shuffle was that the Phillies were up 7-1 and almost blew that game. I have held on long enough but feel it is time to rebuild. A front office shake-up is needed and so is a new manager. The old “out hit” everyone days are over. It is time for a rebuilding process and I am more than ready for the next batch of stars like Biddle and Franco to take over.

    Cliff Lee will always be the coolest but if he can traded to team that can win and we get good prospects. I am all in.

    Like

    1. Why you should root for this team to lose in this current season of 2013.
      1. A top ten pick can be an impact player, especially if its a collegiate, in 2 years or so.
      2. A top ten pick gives the team ability to pay a FA big money without forfeitng the pick.
      3. A change in field management, though this appears to be happening anyway after October.
      4. A possible change in front office general management. David Montgomery let his close friend Ed Wade go almost a decade ago, what is stopping him from letting his current GM go this time around.

      Like

      1. The fact that Amaro has yet to put his guy as manager charlie is only able to coach one type of team effectively and it is becoming more obvious his team and charlies team are different types. He cam in after a WS title so unfortunately for him there was no where to go but down. Don’t get me wrong he has made many poor decisions, i am just trying to rationalize why they give him more time.

        Like

      2. “David Montgomery let his close friend Ed Wade go almost a decade ago, what is stopping him from letting his current GM go this time around.”

        John S. Middleton needs to let David Montgomery go.

        That’s where the problem is. Montgomery is the party killer.

        Like

    2. If you can get a really good prospect or two for Papelbon, go for it. I’d be happy to jettison Michael Young for whatever they can get and give the job to Frandsen and, eventually, Asche. I’d even be fine with trading Rollins or Utley if you could get a top 100 prospect in return. But trading Cliff Lee … no. Unless your getting Profar, Taveras or some other mega-prospect, the payoff is not going to be worth giving up one of the top pitchers in the game when the roster still has a shot at the playoffs each year.

      Like

      1. Does this roster really have a shot at the playoffs every year? They’re 7.5 games out before the all star break. And after trading Paps, Utley and/or Rollins? I don’t really see it.

        Like

        1. “Does this roster really have a shot at the playoffs every year? “

          No it does not, but it can be shaped into one that does for next year.

          Trading the only functional impact players the Phillies have – and with no replacements for them coming up – is a ten year rebuild.

          Like

          1. I’m kind of curious what moves they can make to transform this team into a winner next year. MAYBE that is possible IF they sign both Cano and Choo AND somehow figure out their relief pitching situation, but Cano is most likely not going to be on the market and there is zero chance they sign both. Minor tweeking like they did this past off season is the ten year rebuild.

            Like

      2. Paps and Lee are the only two that bring impact value in return. Rollins, Utley and Michael Young are questionable in return value.

        Like

      4. I don’t see Utley or Rollins bringing back a top 100, it is possible someone is desperate but very unlikely.

        Like

        1. Agreed. Which is why it’s better to tender Utley and take the comp pick if he signs elsewhere. Jimmy’s contract isn’t terrible so I’d just as soon keep him unless, 1) you get a reasonable return (whatever that is), or 2) Galvis shows he can hit. Not holding my breath on either count

          Like

      2. “But he does get $ back in the deal, so this season’s budget is fine.”

        EXACTLY

        That’s David Montgomery.

        That’s where the problem is.

        Like

  5. Maybe this isn’t the correct place for this post, however can someone tell me why J.P Crawford has not played at all in the rookie league?

    Like

    1. He got there later then some other picks, they are likely giving him some swings in side games before putting him into games. Not uncommon for guys to not jump right into games

      Like

  6. How about Luis Garcia? Never played above High A before this season and now he just got called up to Lehigh Valley. He’s been great so far so hopefully he can continue to pitch well and help out the Phillies.

    Like

  7. Addition by subtraction – make room for Ruff and Asche to see what you have this year. Move M Young and D. Young. Rollins numbers are still good enough to keep, unless you get a younger everyday SS when trading him. Not sure who is out there. Galvis is simply a super utility guy. Only trade Papalbon if you think Defratus is the closer, don’t have anyone else in the system who can step in – why trade him for another closer?

    Assess Ruff and Asche to determine your off-season moves with ~$30M to spend. Not ready to dismantle the team, the Phillies are no longer San Diego or Marlins type of team. Business wise, it makes no sense to lose season ticket holders next year with an overly young team. The Red Sox were lucky to retool as quickly as they did and found a crazy team like the Dodgers to dump salary.

    Young blood on the team will go a long way. Only trade the core players if there is a Zack Wheeler type deal out there. Anything else is pointless.

    Like

    1. I’m a huge phan of DeFratus and have remarked on a number of occasions that I expect him to have a long and successful career out of the pen. But, I’m not sure he’s a closer-type particularly on a first division team. Perhaps he develops into one but that’s at least a few seasons away.

      Galvis as a SS is a play right now – even on a championship caliber team. His glove is that good. I’d trade anyone not named Hamels and would only entertain offers for Lee if we’re blown away with a Top 10 prospect, Top 100 and a fringy or two.

      Like

      1. Whether the Phillies rebuild or not they are going to be a second division team for the next couple of years (at least), Longer if they don’t retool or rebuild. If the return is good enough (Castellano +) I am all for trading Papelbon

        Like

      2. “I’m a huge phan of DeFratus”

        Why? He’s a 6th inning guy. A slightly cheaper, slightly more capable version of a 2013 Chad Durbin.

        On a team with a lineup like the Phillies, when you see a pitcher like De Fratus on the mound you know it’s another loss.

        “Galvis as a SS is a play right now – even on a championship caliber team. His glove is that good”

        If the team has seven impact bats in front of him in their lineup every game. But that’s a short term deal until that team finds a SS bat which should be a priority.

        Everybody hits, or the problems mount everywhere else.

        The goal at all times should be domination. A team in a market like the Phillies should strive to embarrass any below average team in the game. The goal should be to have a team that rolls into San Diego and puts up 40 runs in a three game series while giving up four and obliterating the hopes of their fan base and making them question their ownerships commitment.

        Does that sound like the goal of David Montgomery?

        Like

    2. “found a crazy team like the Dodgers to dump salary”

      The Dodgers aren’t going out of business. They had the money to spend and they did so rather than suck the blood of their fans.

      The big problem for the Dodgers isn’t who they got from Boston, it’s Kemp and Eithier.

      If the Dodgers had not been just as “reckless” and “crazy” in regard to Yasiel Puig where would they be?

      Puig is everything he is made out to be. That is a superstar bat.

      Like

    2. Franco could be ready sooner than people think. Can Asche shift to 2nd base? That would allow you to not re-sign Utley. Looks good on paper, not sure Asche is very good at 2nd base.

      Like

      1. This question has been floated around a lot. Basically people have said that the reports were that Asche was pretty much an abomination at 2nd when he played it at Williamsport. I’m not sure what made him incapable of playing 2nd but I wouldn’t put any hope into that happening.

        Like

        1. Then you hope Asche can raise his stock in the majors this year and trade him when Franco is ready. His power numbers aren’t enough to warrant a move to the OF.

          Like

          1. Id try and keep Asche stock as high as possible. Moving him off 3b would discount any potential trade value he could have. Franco is probably the future here, but Asche is going to start in the big leagues some where. Hes got value.

            Like

          2. I agree Asche’s bat is not ideally suited to the outfield but if the Phillies can’t find a fair return on Asche and don’t have a better option in the outfield. I think the move makes some sense. Not that a move needs to be made prematurely.

            Like

  9. The Phils have two big things in their favor at this trade deadline if they are willing to exploit it – a couple of premium players that teams could desparately use (along with a couple of other nice to have pieces) and they have tons of money to spend. So for the money – the argument always comes back – there aren’t any big time free agents to spend on. This is true, but most of those deals go bad anyway. The teams that win have premiere young talent, much like the Phils did in 08. If the Phils are willing to trade some of their talent, and pay a part of their salaries, they could turn that into premium prospects in return, and a quick return to glory. I would rather see them pay $20-30M of next years payroll on players traded away if it gets them a couple of top prospects vs a couple of second tier prospects.

    Like

    1. In my mind there is only one candidate to which you are speaking of and that is Ryan Howard. Even then, he won’t command a top prospect while paying half of his salary. Who is batting cleanup in Howard’s absence – D.Brown? Still leaves a gaping whole in your lineup next year.

      I don’t see Papelbon’s contract being as bad as people think. Certainly, the vesting year wasn’t necessary and could have been avoided. After this year, 2-years $25M for a perennial all-star – not unbearable.

      Simply put, Hamels and Lee create a playoff rotation. Trading Lee doesn’t leave you much. Biddle is still over a year away.

      Like

      1. Ryan Howard is putting up league average first baseman numbers with the bat and in the field. Finding a league average first baseman isnt that hard. Id rather spend that money on Choo and put Ruf at 1b.

        Like

      2. i would guarantee that $$$ would be the difference between getting Castellanos for Pappelbon vs. a still good but lower prospect. And i agree this is where we need to buy a good prospect with our superior pocketbook.

        Like

      3. “Trading Lee doesn’t leave you much. Biddle is still over a year away.”

        You need to quickly reaccess how you think of Biddle. If he’s ever going to be Cliff Lee it will be many years from today.

        Like

        1. I feel quite confident saying he’s never going to be Cliff Lee. He doesn’t need to be Cliff Lee. There really are very few Cliff Lees. If Hamels can return to be Hamels, then he is the ace. Biddle becomes a #2/3 in a couple years.

          Like

  10. Bring Back Ron Gant, I wish those were the lows for me, I remember nights listening to the game on 1210 and the highlight was say, a Dickie Thon homer, or Sammy stretching a double into a triple.
    My stroll down memory lane aside, you raise a great point. Blow this thing up. I am so sick and tired of seeing the same thing night in, night out from this team.
    Injuries…poor fundamentals…terrible hitting approach…lack of intensity…inablility to use speed, which should be an asset…it’s just freaking sad.
    Let’s see some of these kids called up and see what they can do. Oh wait, Cholly wouldn’t play them if he had a gun to his head.

    Like

  11. Their is absolutely no reason not to trade Lee, Papelbon, and Utley at this point. Obviously, if they can get value for Rollins or Young, adios. They aren’t going anywhere this year and next year will most likely be the same. They should be planning for 2015. They have a decent crop of guys on the farm (Biddle, Franco, Quinn are the near sure things but there are plenty of others who could be just as productive) and they need to add some more. The future is bright for this team, how bright depends on Amaro this year at the deadline and (hopefully) the new GM (?) and Manager (Ryne please) next year. Build around those young guys and Hamels and Brown and Kendrick .The end of this year and next year is tryout time for guys like Cesar, Asche, E. Martin, Morgan, Defratus, Joseph and others. in 2015, bring up the top prospects. The roster will be cheaper and younger, freeing up money for some free agents to round things out.

    It seems like a simple and obvious plan, right?

    Like

    1. Marketability is a big reason why you don’t trade everyone. The team needs to maintain a brand by staying competitive and keep attendance up. You don’t dump the best players on your team because you end up losing credibility with your fan base and potential free agents. The NL East is incredibly weak right now and next year is another year of chance. Trading for prospects is like playing the lottery. I look at the Grienke trade # 1 and # 2, Jean Seguria was the only true hit. Cliff Lee Trade # 1, # 2, and # 3 yielded no true prospects for the Indians, Phillies, or Seattle. The CC Sabathia trade yielded nothing for the Indians. Victorino and Thome yielded was decent players, but nothing that will turn the team around. Only in rare cases do you get a great prospect. You will not get a king’s ransom for Lee or Papelbon. We just end up getting a collection of prospects while purging out the ones already in the system.

      Like

      1. This. I remeber an article from earlier in the season that an 8000 per game drop in attendance equates to about $25M in lost revenues over the course of the seasn. That of course doesn’t include loss in concessions, merchandise sales etc., or the effect it could have on the new TV deal.

        If attendence drops to 27-28K, that’s about a $50M drop in revenues from the last few years. They can’t, and won’tlet that happen. They have to stay at least WC competitive while retooling. A tough job for sure, but it can be done.

        Like

        1. The flaw in this logic is that the team has pretty much proven that they can’t be competitive with the current players. What stands between this team and 27-28K attendance is merely a couple more seasons like this season and last year. They need to do something to boost wins into at least the high 80s. Hanging around 75-81 win just isn’t going to get it done, especially not without a clear path forward to wins back in the 90s.

          Like

          1. So what’s the alternative? Losing 90-100 games for a few years, looking at a non-existent FA market, and hope a few prospects pan out?

            Like

      2. Except, the team hasn’t stayed competitive. Not last year, not this year. Competitive is being in a realistic race for a post-season slot, with a chance to advance. Struggling to reach .500 is really not competitive. You aren’t lousy, but you are out of the competition, not one of the teams that a casual fan cares about. The Phillies were within a whiff of .500 and sometimes a shade over .500 back in the bad old days, and nobody viewed that as competitive. When the Eagles go 8-8, they are not viewed as competitive. As we once again sit 5 below .500, I hope management sheds the illusion that we need to keep this gang together so we can remain competitive. We stopped being competitive over a year ago.

        Like

        1. By that definiiton, the team be comeptitive if hamels wins half his starts (not an unrealistic expectation preseason). Next year, revering to form Hamels and reasonable upgrade in RF and 3B would be worth how many wins? 5? 8? That’s wild card contention.

          Like

          2. You are understanding my line of thinking. I agree with you on all fronts. The key here is retooling, not blowing up the roster. Only the Marlins and Padres do that. Get Ruff and Asche playing everyday in the majors to see what you have. This will dictate your off-season moves. But, I would consider trading Kendrick if the deal is right. He could be at the ceiling of his potential right now.

            Like

    2. “Biddle, Franco, Quinn are the near sure things”

      Roman Quinn is 20 years old, playing in low-A and has a .669 OPS. The word on him is that he may not be able to stay at SS. His only impact tool is speed so the only aspect of his game that is a “sure thing” is his ability to be a pinch runner in MLB.

      “The future is bright for this team, how bright depends on Amaro”

      WRONG.

      The future depends on John S. Middleton giving David Montgomery new marching orders.

      The Yankees were a lame embarrassing shell of their legend when George Steinbrenner purchased them. It was Steinbrenner sitting in the box at games watching them and constantly demanding excellence and PAYING FOR IT that made them great again.

      Without the “reckless” and “crazy” spending by the Dodgers they wouldn’t have Gonzo at 1B, Hanley back at SS and Yasiel Puig in the outfield. All they would have are generic pitching prospects and the biggest problems they still have, Matt Kemp and Andre Eithier.

      The Dodgers will not fail over the next few years because their ownership is committed to winning.

      Can you or anyone make the same case for the Phillies?

      Like

  12. I tried this trade before and was told the price was too high the the Dodgers, so I’ve slightly changed it.

    Phillies get: Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, Josh Beckett, and Andre Ethier., Jonathan Schoop

    Dodgers get Cliff Lee

    Orioles get Ryan Howard and lots of cash.

    So the Phillies take on two big contract, but unload Howard’s (and Lee’s). Ethier is signed thru 2017 as well. The Dodgers take on most of Howard’s contract and give up Lee and Pederson since they unload Beckett’s and Ethier’s contract and get Lee. The Orioles get a DH which they sorely need and even though he has a huge contract, they aren’t flipping most of the bill.

    Like

    1. Not sure why the dodgers make that deal with Kershaw and Grienke already in the rotation, while paying for Howard. The Orioles would probably pay high on Utley or M. Young before trading for Howard, more so with his bad knee this year. Can’t remember the last time a 3 team trade occurred during the season.

      Like

      2. Cardinals/White Sox/Blue Jays (was there a fourth team?) comes to mind
        The Red Sox/Dodgers/Pirates in 2008

        I mean those are off the top of my head, it’s not uncommon at all.

        Like

          1. Another brilliant move by Dombrowski it brought back Scherzer and Austin Jackson and Coke. Granderson being the part moved. Having said that the Yanks wound up with the hardware.

            It does beg the question what is Dave willing to do in order to sure up their one weakness.

            Like

    2. What is the point in trading Howard? It would be done to save $, but if you’re sending a ton of cash, that defeats the purpose. Saving the $$ doesn’t even help us all that much. I don’t see complicating a trade just to get rid of Howard for the sake of getting rid of Howard.

      Like

  13. I don’t think it’s out of the question the Phillies are both buyers and sellers at the deadline. They tried hard for Denard Span and Chase Headley at the deadline last year.

    Like

  15. Papelbon for Nick Castellanos straight up. Agree to pay maybe 3/4 of Paps remaining contract. Sounds extreme but Castellanos is worth it. He’s a righthanded hitter, could be ready for the outfeild next year. Could hit in the 3 spot. Would solve some problems, but granted it would leave our bullpen in trouble, but still worth it imo.

    Like

    1. I highly doubt the Tigers would trade arguably their best prospect for a closer, even of Papelbon’s stature.

      Like

      1. I agree. But if they need him badly enough you never know. We gave up two of our top guys for Pence.

        Like

      2. May have to place Asche in the deal with Paps to Castellanos, then they would give us a one of their 20-year old Low A guys for Asche, to even the man-count.

        Like

      3. I think the lot of you are seriously undervaluing the overvaluing of closers. Though looking at Papelbon with out rose colored glasses you see a guy who has lost 2 mph on his fastball the past 2 season and his K rate right a long with it. Not a great investment.

        Like

      4. “I highly doubt the Tigers would trade arguably their best prospect for a closer, even of Papelbon’s stature.”

        Then Papelbon stays.

        Like

  16. Looking at the results for the mere 3 games played by the GCL team. Looking at the OF putouts , I see J.Pujols , who has played all 3 games in RF with 11. C. Sandberg and S. Golden who have split all the time in LF have but 2 and 3 putouts respectively. Jiwan James with 2 of the 3 games in CF, has but one putout, and J. Knight and S. Golden , with the rest of the time in CF, and at least one full game with no Jiwan James in it, have not made a putout in CF. So, that’s 3 games played with one putout by a CF, 11 by the RF, and 5 by the LF. Seems unusual, theoretically speaking, any ideas how this could occur, even over a short period.

    Like

  18. Does anybody know Where Kevin Brady is and why hes not pitching? He hasnt pitched since may 5 and his status says assigned to new team/level. Also why Y. mecias went on the DL?

    Like

    2. Thanks for asking Joey. Brady is probably receiving instruction in Clearwater on how to get batters to miss his pitches. He showed a lot of promise, but even in Spring Training he was being hit hard. It continued into the season. They did the same with Lino with good results so far. I guess they are doing that with Astudillo too, but in the field…somewhere.

      Like

      1. Astudillo had a season ending knee injury in spring training. Brady was hurt for a bit but they are probably working on some mechanical things now

        Like

  19. So I think this should go in the General Discussion thread: With the emergence of Franco, Dugan and Altherr, with Biddle chugging along and with a decent draft, Morgan getting hurt, Asche keeping up his pace, Ruf scuffling, the 2012 draftees making their GCL/Williamsport debuts – where would the Phillies farm system be ranked now? Prior to the year starting I think the consensus was that they were in the lower third of the league, probably around 25-27. Do we think they have moved up at all? Moved down? Stayed about the same relative to other organizations?

    Like

    1. The Ruf scuffling comment makes me think that people had some unrealistic expectations for him. Did people really expect him to come in and hit 20+ HR in the first half of this year in a new league while learning a new position? He didn’t do that last year. He has a .283/.397/.434 line in June and more importantly has reduced his K rate to.20.6 %.

      Like

        1. Perhaps you should have phrased, ‘…..Ruf initially scuffled but lately showing an upswing…’,

          Like

      2. Was it unfair to look for at least an .800 OPS in AAA? I don’t think that was an unrealistic expectation. His k-rate is up 7% over his AA performance. He’s also hitting less line drives and fly balls. Granted, it’s really just one month out of 3 that he’s struggled (May), but that month still counts. It’s not like he has a huge window remaining to establish himself as a major leaguer.

        Like

        1. You take away that one bad month and he does have an .800+ OPS and may still get there on the year.

          Like

    2. We may turn out to have had a little above the middle draft, which would move our ranking up from the mid-20s. We graduated Pettibone, probably less than most teams graduated. Morgan drops, but Franco rises. Quinn slips a litttle, Greene slips a lot. Ruf slips. Altherr rises. All in all, I think we rise a little. Maybe 20 now.

      Like

    3. our system’s ranking probably depends on how highly people think of Franco. Basically if Franco is a top 25 prospect (something i don’t think anyone will say yet), then the system will leap a few spots just for the presence of a guy like that. That said we had a well-regarded draft, and our two best prospects are in AA, but i still feel as if this is a system loaded with C+ prospects (the exceptions being Franco, Biddle, Quinn, and maybe a few others who are very very far away) and the prospects at the highest levels have really not done well at all this year, So maybe low 20s, high teens,

      Like

      1. I agree with Mratfink’s assessment. Probably somewhere between 18-23 is where I would put the system.

        For the reason’s he said. Key point being that the best prospects outside of a few names like Franco, Biddle, maybe Asche…are far away to very, very far away. In fact most of the prospects in the system we are most intrigued by now may end up having never been real prospects at all and we just don’t know it yet.

        Like

    4. The fact that systems rankings tend to be biased towards teams with top 100 guys in upper minors (correctly IMO) makes me think the Phils ranking will stay about the same, or slightly improve a couple of spots solely due to Franco. Had Morgan been able to jump into the top 100, you might have seen more noticeable improvement.

      Like

      1. I agree. If Quinn turns it on the rest of the year, I could definitely see a case for him to enter the Top 100.

        Like

  20. Can someone give a quick run down on Jose Pujols? Want to follow GCL as much as possible and just curious what is the general scouting report on him? I know he highlighted last years international signing period for the Phils.

    Like

    2. “Can someone give a quick run down on Jose Pujols?”

      An awkward teenager who will probably end up in LF. He has a lot of power potential, but his swing was seen as one that would generate a lot of swing and miss because his bat didn’t stay in the zone very long. His first two games were encouraging in that last regard as he hasn’t whiffed badly as Cord Sandberg has.

      But hey, it’s early.

      Like

    3. Big time power due to ridiculous bat speed (BA described it as bat acceleration as it gets into the zone). His biggest issue is a lack of approach as like many Dominican slugglers his approach was geared towards smashing HRs in showcase events. The arm is average to slightly above so it is a toss up what corner he ends up in. The swing needed reworking which likely started in Fall Instructs, so expect growing pains.

      Explosive bat speed is a good tool to watch.

      Like

  21. The Phillies are talking to the Red Sox and Tigers about closer Jonathan Papelbon right now, one exec tells Stark, even if they say otherwise.

    Other teams say the Tigers are willing to surrender top prospects Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia if necessary. The team is focused on finding a closer.

    DONT FUCK THIS UP RUBEN.

    Like

    1. Please nik refrain from the ‘f’ bomb.
      In Philly we prefer the wording to read ‘ph_ck’. Just more classy.

      Like

    2. I told you that the tigers made this offer last week, but the phillies were holding out for Nick castellanos, and the fourth rated and eleventh rated prospects. in the tigers systems, according to a source within the philies, as told to anthony gargano on wip.

      Like

  22. just saw that on twitter. do you think the phillies could get both garcia and castellanos for paps? probably wishful thinking. would you guys trade paps straight up for castellanos?

    Like

  23. Paps needs to stop messing it up by blowing saves. If he keeps his current streak up no one will want him.

    Like

    1. Current streak? He gave up a bloop single that score two runs, nicked a batter, and ruiz had a passed ball that let the tying run score.

      The blown save the other day against the Mets was horrible luck. The only red flag with Papelbon is his decreased velocity which was a problem last year too.

      His track record long outweighs one bad week.

      Like

      1. Well the types of people who value the closer so highly are the same type of people who put faith in saves. Now if we want to look at the whole picture yes, Papelbon has been excellent but any GM dealing with the Phillies is going to bring up a recent stretch of blown saves if any deal were made soon in order to bargain the price down. The issue could be entirely gone by the trade deadline but an extended stretch of blown saves doesn’t look good if it continues much longer. Once that starts happening people start questioning his mindset and then maybe it does become mental for him. People who put stock into high closer importance look for “closer mentality”.

        Not insignificant to note is the large decrease in K/9 for Papelbon this year. Which also could hurt his price. And this is probably tied to decrease in velocity.

        Like

          1. I think the fact that he’s Jonathan Papelbon and the fact that two contenders are having serious closer problems may be willing to overpay for the name. As long as the Phillies kick in money they should be fine in acquiring a solid package.

            I think it obviously becomes a concern if he continues to blow saves but I really don’t expect him to. I expect him to be fine and the Phillies trade them, as he should, because, frankly I was concerned about his velocity a little last year.

            Like

  26. Middlebrooks of the Boston Red Sex sent down to AAA.

    Im calling it right now, Papelbon for Middlebrooks.
    The Sox need a closer and are familiar with Papelbon and Papelbon may want to end his career in Boston. Middlebrook is expendable to Boston due to Jose Iglesious’s great start and Middlebrooks troubling start. He fills the Phillies need for a Right Handed bat and third baseman. Franco can be brought up as a 1B, RF, or part of a trade package in a couple years.

    Like

    2. certainly not moving Franco off of 3b for Will Middlebrooks. Middlebrooks is probably the most overhyped prospect of the last 5 years mainly because he was the Sox white hope. He will struggle to ever post an OBP over .310 at the major league level.

      Like

      1. He doesn’t take many walks but he is still a young guy. Good arm and good glove as well. Id take him over Asche

        Like

  27. Why would you want to take middlebrook. who is being sent down, wait is this ruben amaro??? Ruben take the detroit deal.three for one deal . take it ruben, and use the 13 million towards a better option than delmon young,

    Like

    1. Id love for him to take the 3 for 1 deal instead, but just because Will is being sent down doesnt mean he is a bad player. I think this trade is possible because his value is low. Its only been a year since his .270 15HR 250AB season.

      Like

  28. If I couldn’t get Castellanos for Papelbon, I’d probably go to the Red Sox and try to accomplish some type of Andrew Bailey/Wil Middlebrooks deal.

    Like

  29. So I believe the Phillies would be CRAZY not to trade Cliff Lee, and here is my logic. Let’s assume that there are teams, or at least one, that is willing to pay his salary and offer top prospects. That basically is the same to the Phillies as if he was a free agent this upcoming off season, which leaves two options to choose from:

    1) Sign Cliff Lee to a guaranteed 2 year contract, for $61.5M ($24M per year, plus a $13.5M buyout), or if the option vests, 3 yrs, $75M contract. Typically the Phils would lose a draft pick, but since he isn’t really a free agent the loss would be whatever the prospect return is, likely MUCH better than 1 #1 pick.

    Or

    2) Do not sign Lee, have $61.5 – 75M available money over the next 2-3 years, and cash in on some young prospects. If the Phils are wiling to pay some of Lee’s contract (not because they have to) the prospect return could be even greater and considering the lack of star free agents coming up, this is likely the way to go.

    I would obviously take option 2. The only argument against this is possibly the impact to the pending tv deal, but I would sell very, very high on both Lee and Papelbon this trade deadline.

    Like

  31. “just saw that on twitter. do you think the phillies could get both garcia and castellanos for paps? probably wishful thinking. would you guys trade paps straight up for castellanos?”

    No s**t, the Twitter companies account is tweeting about the Phillies? I’ll have to follow that.

    Yeah, I would trade Papelbon for Nick Castellanos. No way I trade him to Detroit without getting Castellanos. Avrail Garcia is very sketchy. Reminds me of Travis Lee, small samples of success at different levels of the minors and then he’s labeled as a stud who slowly descends into being labeled AAAA, but he never earned the stud designation.

    Castellanos is a real bat you’ll want to see in the lineup.

    No point in talking about Boston because they aren’t trading Bogaerts or even Jackie Bradley Jr. for Papelbon. I’m not interested in the rest of their crap. It’s just more of what the Phillies have.

    Like

  33. On the issue of expected return for veterans in trades –

    The frame that you need to look at IMO is this. When “impact” prospects change hands in return for veterans, one of two factors usually obtain:

    (1) The traded veteran is himself an impact player with multiple seasons of team control remaining with a team friendly contract. (Pence was perceived to be in this category; one reason it was such a bad trade is that he wasn’t a true impact player.)

    (2) The team trading the prospect mistakenly does not see the prospect as an impact prospect.

    There ARE exceptions to this rule, but not that many. As a general rule, trading a veteran, even an impact veteran, who does not have a long period of team control AND a favorable contract will not yield an impact prospect in return.

    Now, that doesn’t end the analysis. There ARE exceptions, and it is reasonable to hope for such exceptions. Lee fits 2 of three criteria, and Papelbon arguably does as well (if you see him as an impact player), so there is some reason to hope that we MIGHT get an impact prospect in return for either player. Our other veterans not so much.

    Like

  34. Now that Valdez, Durbin and Horst are gone and Adams is probably gone for the year, our bullpen is now comprised of our relief pitcher prospects and Papelbon. Ruben has stated that he is not looking to add any outside arms. This is what many commentators on this site have been advocating. It worked well last night; let’s see how it works over the rest of the season.

    Like

  35. Brad, thankfully, the Padres are a giving group and gave us the game last night in appreciation of Monday’s fiasco!

    Like

  36. MIGUEL ALFREDO GONZALEZ

    Why is it that I’m not seeing the Phillies linked to this Cuban pitcher?

    Why am I seeing trade rumors for Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon so the Phillies can “get some prospects”?

    Why can’t the huge market Phillies get their prospects the way the small market Cincinnati Reds got Chapman?

    Where is JOHN S. MIDDLETON and more importantly where is his checkbook?

    Like

    1. ‘Where is JOHN S. MIDDLETON and more importantly where is his checkbook?’…..as we speak…on the phone now with David $$$ Montgomery.

      Like

  39. Phillies acquired infielder John McDonald from the Indians today for a player to be named or cash. McDonald was DFA’s to make room for Cabrera’s return from the DL. Original thought was wow – another great move by RAJ. But then I thought, is it possible they are building middle infield depth in anticipation of losing one or more of their current middle infielders?

    Like

    1. This McDonald is not a good hitter, in fact he is batting well under .100. He is also 38 years old. The purpose of the move seems to be to send Galvis back to AAA to give him more playing time. However, they could have just brought back Martinez or promoted Hanazawa. If the purpose is to trade Utley, Young or Rollins, wouldn’t you want to go with young players?

      Like

  40. Phillies acquired infielder John McDonald from the Indians today for a player to be named or cash. McDonald was DFA’s to make room for Cabrera’s return from the DL. Original thought was wow – another great move by RAJ. But then I thought, is it possible they are building middle infield depth in anticipation of losing one or more of their current middle infielders?

    Like

  42. If the Yankees want M Young or Ruiz, would they be willing and would it be wise to try to get their newly-drafted outfielder, Aaron Judge? Or is that unheard of trading a guy drafted three weeks earlier.

    Like

  43. What are the chances that the Phillies shut down Ryan Howard for knee surgery soon? Ryan took responsibility for last night but he is a liability in the bases, field and at batting(this week) and should have as he cost us the game. If this happened I would move Utley to 1B, platoon Cesar Hernandez and Kevin Frandsen, trade Michael Young and platoon Asche with someone else. Also trade Delmon Young and bring Darin Ruf up for LF and move Dom Brown back to RF. This would give the Phillies new life and maybe some relievers and prospects.

    Like

    1. That lineup would be underwhelming to say the least.

      i sort of understood the fascination of bringing Hernandez up when he was batting .380; I don’t understand it now. As bad as Howard has been, that part of your suggestion makes the team even worse. Yes, Hernandez has done some nice things this season, despite his recent slump, but I still don’t see a major league regular there. And moving Utley to first takes a guy who is (when healthy) still a star at second base and turns him into an average first baseman at best. If Howard goes on the DL, Mayberry switches to first, maybe platooning (with whom is unclear).

      I think M. Young gets traded (not for anything valuable), and Asche brought up, but a month or so from now. (Though I think you can make a case that, in the meantime, Frandsen should be the regular third baseman. Of course that would decrease M. Young’s already minimal trade value.)

      As for RF … as useless as D.Young has been, I see no reason to believe that Ruf (with Brown moving to right) will be the answer. And this is coming from someone who bought into Ruf’s hitting (while remaining skeptical about his fielding in the OF). But over 300 PA into his AAA year, maybe it’s time to acknowledge that the people who were skeptical about his hitting had a point. Mind you, it would be very difficult for him to be worse than D. Young, but at this point expecting Ruf to be more than a replacement level player in the OF is probably unrealistic. In fact, my expectation for Ruf at this point is pretty much across the board what D. Young is doing so far this year – with maybe a few more BBs but also a few more Ks. I guess you can make the argument that, even if that is a reasonable expectation, you still go with Ruf because (a) Ruf is likely better in the clubhouse, and (b) with Ruf, there is a chance he might be better – D. Young is what he is.

      Of course as long as Howard is not on the DL, the RF solution SHOULD be a Mayberry/Nix platoon.

      Like

      1. The ideal solution for RF for me is to do the Papelbon deal today for Castellanos or Garcia and immediately make them an everyday starter.

        And call me crazy but if you can move M Young do it and go with Franco in the same manner the O’s went with Machado and the Marlins went with Ozuna, the Dodgers with Puig.

        Can you envision a line-up where Castellanos/Brown/Franco are your 3-4-5!

        Get that done you don’t have to trade Lee and you can go hard after Garza in the off season.

        Like

        1. I wouldn’t have high expectations for that lineup for next year necessarily, but it could look good a few years down the line.

          Like

    2. Howard going on the DL some time soon is very likely. I don’t think it is likely at all Chase ever gets moved to 1B as a Phillie so the likely call would be Ruf to play 1B.

      Like

    3. I just could never understand why some people think it’s a good idea to take an elite 2nd basemen and make him an average 1B. It makes zero sense.

      By moving Utley to 1st and bringing Hernadez up to play you are weakening the team significantly- and without reason I might add. Mayberry would play first if Howard went to the DL and Ruf would likely be called up.

      Like

  44. I could have waited for the new weekly general discussion board tomorrow, but wanted to draw on something said in the post game today. This roster needs a shake up and injection much like the way the Dodgers brought up Puig. Asche and Ruff can be those guys for this lineup. Apparently, Boston is interested in M. Young and pitching due to injuries. I am still in the cap of keeping C. Lee and am of the opinion that Kendrick has max’d out value wise. That being said, there is a value trade here with Kendrick having one more year of arbitration.

    Did anyone else hear the Phillies want to sign Utley to an extension? He is on pace for 107 games played this year. At 35 years old, how much should they really push this? Perhaps this is a play by the team to justify letting him go. But anything more that a one year deal at $8M is too much.

    Like

    1. John – the only reasonable scenario where I see Utley in a Phillies uniform next year is a qualifying offer that he accepts. The F.O. office would be foolish to offer any kind of multi-year deal unless it’s loaded with options based on number of games played. I doubt Utley accepts a QO and I doubt he’s agreeable to a contract loaded with team friendly options. I truly expect him to be playing elsewhere next season if not by August of this season

      Like

Comments are closed.