Midseason Top 20

Other Stuff

I was planning on releasing this list closer to the end of June but Brad mentioned it might be beneficial to do one ranking now and one in early August after the deadline when we have seen how the guys in Williamsport and the GCL fair.  I have not included any player with major league service time in 2013 or any 2013 draftees (I will address them after this list).  I have tried to avoid making any rash changes in rankings based purely on stats and have tried to let the tools and profile do the talking.

1. Jesse Biddle (Pre-season #1) – Biddle’s profile hasn’t changed a ton.  The curveball and fastball have been better than the past, but the changeup and command still have a ways to go.  It is encouraging that he has really missed bats at a level where they can punish a hanging breaking ball.

2. Maikel Franco (Pre-season #6) – I really liked Franco pre-season and somehow I kept putting guys over him.  He is a monster at the plate with plenty of glove for third.  It is true impact potential and he was way too low on the first list.

3. Roman Quinn (Pre-Season #3) – I thought the power would come, but I didn’t think there would be sop much swing and miss.  The defense has also been pretty bad.  That said 80 speed with possible 50/50 hit and power is pretty nice in CF if it comes to that.

4. Adam Morgan (Pre-season #2) – I realize the injury concerns, if it lingers he will be lower on the offseason list, but the pitches were there earlier in the year.  I saw him dominate in Spring Training and it is hard to drop a guy too much before we see how he comes back.

5. Cody Asche (Pre-Season #7) – I think the same way about Asche now as I did 4 months ago.  The difference is that he is now even closer to the majors, and for a guy with a limited profile that is a huge step.  I think Asche could come up and be a close to average regular right now (with some adjustments on the major league level).

6. Tommy Joseph (Pre-Season #4) – Do you remember in Spring Training when everyone wanted him up in the majors?  He has had a very unlucky year at the plate and with injuries.  He never is going to be a great blocker of balls in the dirt but everyone says he has 80 grade makeup and catcher is perfect for that guy.  He has to drop some because missing half a season of reps sets him back some.

7. Carlos Tocci (Pre-season #8) – Tocci has been impressive to me in holding his own in Lakewood.  I don’t want to say too much now because I am writing a piece on it, but Tocci may be having the most impressive season for any Phillies prospect.

8. Ethan Martin (Pre-season #5) – Martin’s fall in the ranking reflects my increased lack of confidence in him as a starter.  I think it is too early to give up on him, but this reflects more the back of the bullpen dominant reliever I think he will become.

9. Shane Watson (Pre-Season #9) – Watson’s stock stays the same for me, he hasn’t dominated, but he has been unlucky with the homerun ball.  The Phillies have limited his weapons to get him to grow as a pitcher, but the biggest thing is they are confident that he can handle the adversity.

10. Kelly Dugan (Pre-Season #26) – Dugan freefalled down the pre-season list while I wrote it because of the lack of big power and the high BABIP.  I believe in the power now and I think he can stick in an OF corner.  The BABIP will regress but he is a smart hitter who will continue to adjust and should keep at least his current walk rate.

11. Yoel Mecias (Pre-Season UR) – I liked Mecias going into the season, but with limited reports and knowledge of his assignment I didn’t rank him.  He has both a fastball and changeup that flash plus, but the breaking ball needs work.  He is rail thin and will need to put on some muscle to hold up to a full season of work.  He is a 19 year old missing a ton of bats in full-season ball which is special.

12. Mitch Gueller (Pre-Season #12) – Until Gueller proves he doesn’t have a major league upside I will continue to rank him well on his potential to have three plus pitches.  He is going to need some time, but his first Williamsport start was encouraging.

13. Dylan Cozens (Pre-Season #13) – I have heard nothing but good things about his ability to barrel up a baseball.  The speed and athleticism are still there, but still risk going forward on how they age.  He could jump right up into that Top 8 group if he puts together a balanced summer with power and limited swing and miss.

14. Andrew Pullin (Pre-Season #17) – He is really going to hit and he looks better at 2B, but he still needs plenty of reps.  Can’t infer too much more until he plays some games.

15. Aaron Altherr (Pre-Season #28) – If it weren’t for the strikeouts he would be above Dugan.  Altherr hits for power, runs well, plays at least decent CF defense, but until he cuts down on the strikeouts there is going to be a ton of flameout risk.  It does look a lot better with the power surge than it did before the season.

16. Cameron Rupp (Pre-Season UR) – I haven’t really changed my opinions on Rupp, who I think is a back-up, but he survived AA for the most part.  He is solid behind the plate, has some pop in the bat, but the defense isn’t good enough to carry him and the hit tool is below average.  But being in AAA a step away from the majors is a big stock boost.

17. Hoby Milner (Pre-Season UR) – He doesn’t have amazing stuff, the frame doesn’t say starter long term, but he just gets batters out.  Reading will be a big test and he should get there soon, but I still struggle to see a starter here, but it should be very nice out of the bullpen.

18. Seth Rosin (Pre-Season UR) – I was wrong on Rosin, I wanted to put him back in the bullpen and rush him to the majors.  Instead his solid frame and three pitch mix could give him a #4 starter ceiling.  He needs to continue to refine the secondary offerings in order to make it, but the control lets the stuff play up.

19. Cameron Perkins (Pre-Season UR) – He keeps hitting everything.  The walk rate is low, but so is the strikeout rate.  A month ago he might be higher on the list but losing a potential call-up to AA, hurts development.  He is going to be tested at higher levels, it looks more like a 4th OF, but if he keeps hitting it could be more than that.

20. Kenny Giles (Pre-Season #24) – Part of this is a correction of his original ranking.  The arm is fine and it is probably for the best they are letting the obliques fully heal before letting him pitch and possibly causing more injury.  It is a closer upside with the elite fastball and developing breaking ball.

Graduating from the Top 20: Jonathan Pettibone will no longer be eligible for prospect lists (would have been #9), Phillipe Aumont‘s stock has fallen and he would slot behind Altherr, Justin De Fratus has looked very good and likely is right behind Dugan at #11, Cesar Hernandez has put on a show in AAA and likely falls right in front of De Fratus.

The 2013 Draft: JP Crawford would slot in at #3 right between Franco and Quinn because he can stick at SS, Andrew Knapp would fall in right behind Shane Watson, Cord Sandberg would be right behind Altherr, Jan Hernandez would slide in right behind Rupp, and Jake Sweaney would fit right behind Hernandez.

Those falling out of the Top 20: Larry Greene Jr (#11), I was just wrong about him, he came into camp out of shape, the swing looks wrong, and he has been striking out at a huge rate.  Darin Ruf (#14), the power hasn’t been there and the strikeouts have, the LF experiment is having moderate success, but at soon to be age 27 it looks like a bench platoon bat may be his ceiling.  Austin Wright (#18), missing time with injury and being ineffective when healthy is no way to help your profile when you already look like a reliever.  Zach Collier (#19), it has been a nightmare season but there is still some hope left, he’ll really need to turn it around.  Sebastian Valle (#20), limited power, limited walks, repeating a level, not getting catching reps, there is not a lot to like in Valle’s profile right now and he will need a major overhaul to make it better.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

111 thoughts on “Midseason Top 20”

      1. I take it that was snark? As a seemingly MLB-ready 5th outfielder, I assume he’s in the top 30. Any player who you can say will probably contribute to a 25 man roster within the next calendar year deserves that much.

        Of the 20 listed, the only one I would rank Castro higher than is Cameron Perkins. This is not to say I would rank Castro in the top 20, I would have Perkins probably 7-10 spots later than he’s listed here.

        And I’ve only seen a handful of these players actually play, I just have some skill at aggregating data. So take what I say with a grain of salt. For example, I haven’t seen Perkins, just his numbers and what scouts say about him. And that tells me he’s quite unlikely to contribute to a 25 man roster.

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  2. I would say its more positive than negative in terms of growth from where the farm was a year ago. Regardless of what Jim Callis says, they have 2 Top 50 guys (Biddle and Franco) and maybe a few that could shortly become that (Quinn, Tocci, Crawford). For the second half of the year it would be great if Morgan gets healthy, Martin puts together a few more solid outings, and Gueller/Watson finish up strong.

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  3. In talking with a scout, I was told that Jesse Biddle will absolutely contribute in the middle of a big league rotation soon, but won’t be more than that unless his command and stuff both take major grade jumps.

    The same scout believes that Maikel Franco is substantially older than he’s listed. He had no other concerns, although obviously that’s a big one.

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      1. I don’t think he had any evidence aside from his knowing what a 19 year old freak athlete is supposed to look like. I’m also not saying anyone should/shouldn’t believe Franco’s listed age. His exact comment was something about there being more tree rings than there should be.

        He also had some interesting information about amateur PED use. Even though our discussion wasn’t explicitly off the record, it was all hearsay so I’ll refrain from sharing the details.

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        1. The Yankees Gary Sanchez has a double chin like Erik Kratz and he looks like Carlos Beltran’s brother, which is notable since Dominicans don’t usually look like Carlos Beltran.

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    2. Does the scout have an actual reason to know/suspect that, or is he just suspicious of a LA prospect killing a league he’s young for?

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      1. Franco is from LA? I thought he was a Dominican.

        Surprised the Dodgers and Angels missed him.

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    3. What about Dom Santana? In Lakewood a few years ago, many a viewer expressed about his ‘older’ look.

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  4. I feel slightly better about this group than I did before the season. Franco gives us someone to get excited about on the offensive side. The depth is pretty weak, but could improve.

    The hope (and it’s a fleeting hope) is that we follow up a solid draft with a splash in the international market and trade away Papelbon and others for quality (not quantity) prospects and this list looks pretty darn good by year’s end.

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  5. You know there isn’t much for me to complain about with your list Matt. The top 7 guys are all the same for me and maybe even further down. The order would just be slightly different. I also would put Watson ahead of Martin because I’m not confident that Martin can stick at pitcher anymore but Watson still can.

    1. Biddle
    2. Franco
    3. Morgan
    4. Asche
    5. Quinn
    6. Joseph
    7. Tocci
    8. Watson
    9. Martin
    10. Dugan

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  6. Loved the rankings on Gueller and Cozens. Watson’s handcuffed atm but hopefully he can turn things around. And can’t wait to see your piece on Tocci! I get a smile on my face everytime I see he’s gotten another hit. Really pulling for the guy.

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  7. I have no complaints with your list. My top 10 (without JP Crawford and Cesar Hernandez):

    01. Biddle
    02. Franco
    03. Quinn
    04. Joseph
    05. Morgan
    06. Tocci
    07. Asche
    08. Watson
    09. E Martin
    10. Y Mecias

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  8. I was at ST – didnt’ see as much BP as I would have liked, but came away very impressed by Cozens (he’s huge, very athletic and, easily, easily, hit the ball farther than any other Phillies prospect) and disappointed with L. Greene (was fat, out of shape, and did not have especially good power from what I could tell).

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    2. I just realized that he is young for his year too (just turned 19 end of May), with his size and athleticism I am definitely looking forward to watching him develop. 6’6 235 is huge for a 19 year old, and stealing bases at that size? I like it.

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  10. I think Martin’s too high. High ceilings are useless if you can’t throw strikes. Right now, Martin’s throwing 58% of his pitches for strikes. The very worst ratios in the big leagues for starters are generally 59% and above, and those are usually fringe guys. They just put him on the 40 man this year, so he’s probably got another year and a half to get it right before they put him in the bullpen, but I’m not holding my breath.

    Also, remember when Colvin was fighting for a top 5 spot on these lists? Now he doesn’t even get an honorable mention. TINSTAAPP strikes again.

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    1. If Martin was a pure reliever I might still rank him #8. In short bursts the command will be better (it is a problem with him overthrowing and the mechanics falling apart). He will be a fastball (70 pitch), curveball (60 pitch) guy who can flash a cuttery slider that is at least average. This isn’t TINSTAAPP this is a guy with a mechanical problem (think Brown’s earlier swing) that is creating a weakness for the major league level.

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    2. I don’t disagree with your assessment of Martin, but even with his issues, he is still close to a top 10 prospect in this system. I think Ethan Martin, even with all of his control issues, has more trade value than Altherr, Dugan or Perkins. So I do think he is worthy of being ranked ahead of those guys.

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      1. A very fringy starter or decent BP arm over a possible Right Fielder that can mash? I’d go with Dugan over Martin any day of the week.

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        1. Dugan with plenty of risk as well. I can make the argument that Martin is a possible #2/#3 starter with as much probability to reach that as Dugan (just for fun Martin was taken in 2008 draft and Dugan in 2009)

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          1. No snark here, I would actually like to see that argument.

            I just feel like its easy to dream on Martin without seeing what’s right in front of your face; a guy that can’t throw strikes currently, and never has shown the ability to do so previously.

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            1. I will start with actually think the biggest problem with Martin is the lack of defined changeup, it is a below average pitch right now, although he does have two above average breaking balls.

              Last year Martin had two horrible starts where he allowed 7BB (4/11 and 8/23). If we remove those starts entirely you have a guy with 3.7 BB/9 over the year. I realize it may seem strange to just remove the high end, but you are dealing with a guy who just falls apart, so if you work on limiting complete meltdown games you have a useful pitcher. More so his Phillies innings would then be 2.3 BB/9 over 42.2 IP. Not a large sample but definitely a show of control. You aren’t going to see huge strike rates with Martin because of the two breaking balls, he is going to throw them outside the zone for swings and misses. When you look at the stuff, if he keeps it around the plate that will miss major league bats and you have #3/#4, if he can find a show-me changeup that is a close to #2 starter. Martin is incredibly athletic so he certainly a guy who has the physical ability to make the adjustments going forward. In 2013 the HR numbers have been inflated so when they go down expect everything else to drop as well. Since the beginning of May he has been bringing down the walk rate and pitching better overall.

              With Dugan he has posted a K rate over 20% the last two years and while the walk rate is nice, his BABIP is greatly inflating his BA. If he has a BABIP of .340 (which is really optimistic of a player of his skill set) his line looks more like .265/.335/.500, which has nice power but is hardly dominant. He will need to mash HRs and play great defense to have value. The defense is average out in RF where the arm might play to plus at times. He is already 22 (23 in September) so you can’t project a ton of more physical growth. At best he seems to profile as an above average regular (55 type player) whereas Martin could be closer (60 pitcher) or a #2/#3 starter (60/65 pitcher), and at worst a #4 starter/setup guy (55 pitcher)

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        2. I doubt you get a Shane Victorino level player at the deadline for a Kelly Dugan. He’s a 5th year player, dominating Single A, with little defensive value. Nobody is knocking down doors for Kelly Dugan.

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          1. This is Dugan’s second healthy season and last years numbers aren’t too shabby either. When he’s healthy he’s produced. He’ll be 22 in AA in a week or two, so age is not an issue. With prospects you value upside and I see one of the few guys in our minors that can actually carry a corner OF spot offensively. Its not like he’s Ruf defensively either, he can handle RF from all accounts.

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            1. I agree. But just as you stated. He will be in AA. When he is hitting in AA, at age 22, then I think his stock rises. He isn’t there yet, so I’m not going to assume he will hit.

              Zach Collier is the same age as Dugan, and has had as many injuries as Dugan, and he is at AA, struggling. If Dugan moves up to AA and struggles, does he get bounced from the top 30 like Collier? They would be the same age at the same level. Just asking.

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            2. Collier had a much longer history of being a mediocre hitter, his only decent year was last year and he’s never hit like Dugan is hitting right now. If Dugan struggles in AA, he’ll drop back some, but if he comes back strong again next year he’ll still be a solid prospect. I havent given up on Collier yet, but really outside of a pretty decent 2012 he’s never shown much.

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            3. Really Collier only had a good AFL last year with a SSS. Before that he improved from disappointing to mediocre.

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            4. He started producing when they stopped trying to make him a switch-hitter. He became purely a LHB starting in 2012 and has raked ever since.

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  11. Looking back at a May report it seems from an, ehem, incredibly reliable source that prior to his groin injury Colvin was doing well. What do I know, but I was impressed that the Phillies converted Savery to a batter with the apparent result that with rest his pitching prowess returned.Think a switch to outfielder might help him?

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    1. Savery’s problem was his arm, it just never bounced back from injury in college to the level that it was before. The rest, therefore, seemed to help his arm recover a bit of strength. Colvin’s issues are completely different. From everything ive read and heard about him, it has nothing to do with his injury or his arm strength. His issues stem from his inability to control his delivery and the resulting lack of control he has on his pitches. Giving him time off from pitching wouldnt help fix that, as the only cure is repetition.

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  12. You keep listing prospects but forget about Luis Garcia. Im telling you guys about this guy big prospect.

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    1. 26 year old reliever with 26.2 IP stateside since 2010. At best back of the Top 30 unless he just dominates AA and AAA with plus to plus plus stuff. This list only has one pure reliever on it and he comes in at #20 and throw 100mph

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      2. Hey Matt you do realize that throwing 100mph doesnt make you a prospect. Id take a 98 mph 2 seamer with tremendous movement and a nasty slider any day. One very important thing to realize is that he is under control when he pitches. According to two high ranking phillies officials he may end up in the big leagues to have a cup of coffee this year.

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        1. I would too (which is why I will always believe in Aumont). Many people had Giles as making it to Philly this year if it wasn’t for the injuries. He also has a much improving breaking ball.

          Garcia needs to be more than a middle reliever to have value and I don’t see that right now. He is old for the level and will need to prove it in the majors to be a guy.

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          1. Garcia is a closer point blank. No doubt he gets to the majors and remember the names jordan and nowortya they were the ones that confirmed that one. So much for your analysis…..

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            2. Garcia was a free agent with no support from his previous agent to land him a job. Unfortunately he has to play for an independent ball club the newark bears in 2011 and then didnt play again in 2012. He is the real deal, true story material.

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          1. saw him pitch this weekend. he had an adventurous inning but escaped without damage. big arm, 94-96. whether or not he can use it to get people out we have to wait and see.

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  13. I get that tocci is super young for lakewood and he is holding his own but to say his season has been impressive seems like a stretch to me. He is a tough player to judge right now because he is so young and will fill out much more over the next few years

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      1. Also someone said he had like .270 avg and .340 OBP in his last 21 games. That’s pretty good if he keeps that up.

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      2. Agree Riggs. Tocci is young even when you judge him against the typical major leaguer’s career path in the minors and it’s not like he’s failing at Lakewood.

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    2. PGD- I’m with you on Tocci. What he is doing is very impressive, but he is just so far away physically. Until he develops physically or shows even an ounce of power it’s hard for me to consider him a highend prospect.

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  14. Re: Quinn —

    Just looked up his numbers. BB% same as last year. K% up 1.2%. ISO down .012.

    BABIP down .055.

    So basically Quinn’s worse offensive performance this year is almost entirely due to a large decline in his BABIP, probably in large part due to better defense taking away a lot of his bunt/infield hits.

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  15. Many 17 year olds just finished up their junior year in high school and are looking forward to a summer of legion ball and relaxing by the pool. The fact that Tocci is holding his own in low A is great. Maybe he will never develop into a power hitter – many years ago we had a HOF center fielder who might have averaged 2 home runs a year – we now have an alley named for him at CBP.

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    1. Look, we all like tocci, and what he is doing is impressive for a 17 year old, but some of us prefer taking a wait and see approach. There is nothing wrong with that.

      For every Richie Ashburn there are 1000s of guys without power that don’t make the Hall of Fame. It isn’t a matter of hitting 20 HRs, it’s a matter of being more than a RH hitting Ben Revere with less speed at the plate. Again, I’m not exactly sure what “holding his own” means but he’s OPSing less than.600 and has has 11 extra base hits as a professional. That screams “wait and see” to me.

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      1. Don’t really disagree with you, he may flame out. It’s just nice to have someone in the system who has the potential to make it before 24-25.

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  16. 1 Franco
    2 Tocci
    3 Biddle
    4 Quinn
    5 Joseph
    6 Asche
    7 Morgan
    8 C Hernandez
    9 Dugan
    10 Watson

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  17. I like francos quick, short stroke. Footspeed seems to be lacking. I saw him, perkins and the crew at Williamsport and those two seemed the best swings.

    Tocci??? You must be factoring his age into your evaluation of his having the best year of anyine. Either that, or we have a very, very weak minor league crop.

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    1. Huge factoring of age in the equation. If you use age related metrics he is having one of the best season in the minors (they aren’t meant to handle players so young). Good contact ability and advanced defensive profile are great for the level. He just needs to the strength for the ball to travel when he makes solid contact.

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  18. One name not on your top 20 list that I have on mine is Zack Green. I think the kid can really play. The WSport roster has Gueller, Pullin, Cozens and Green plus Lino and Knapp to follow. Lots to wish on. As it relates to Tocci, I don’t understand the man crushes so many of you have on this kid. I agree that its terrific that a 17 yr old can get his bat on the ball as much as he’s been doing but let’s not pretend that he’s hitting 330 with 15 homers either.

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    1. Green is #21 followed by a host of kids who haven’t really played yet. He is a premium defender in CF now so if he continues to make contact and adds some strength that is a great floor, and then there is plenty to dream on.

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      2. What I mean by that; Is he lioked at as a possible prispect ir minor leage filler? 2 walks, 30K’s, 17? Hits in 24 IP is worth a nitice.

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        1. He is worth keeping an eye on, he will need to prove it at AA and AAA, look at struggles by other RHP without an average fastball when hitters figured them out (JRod, Cloyd, Hyatt, and a lesser extent Pettibone)

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        2. There’s been a lot of talk about him here recently. It seems that he has a possible advanced secondary pitch and good control, but an average at best fastball.

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  20. “JP Crawford would slot in at #3 right between Franco and Quinn because he can stick at SS”

    Freddy Galvis can play SS in MLB every day.

    There is zero evidence to suggest that Crawford will ever hit as well as Galvis can now. His bat is clearly a question mark. Crawford hung a five year tag on himself on draft day on the MLB network and Harold Reynolds – who had every high school kid getting up here next September – hung a Domonic Brown length trip to the majors on Crawford specifically because of his bat.

    “Tommy Joseph”

    I guess you were really impressed with those fifteen plate appearances in spring training because that’s the only life his bat has shown since the Phillies cut their payroll with the second Pence “trade”.

    “Andrew Pullin”

    I was his booster when you were doing the vote a few months ago. He might be the steal of that draft, a Brown/Singleton bat. He seems to have some pop in the bat. When I watched the YouTube video after he was drafted the bat looked like a TOOTHPICK. With some pop he could be a star at 2B.

    Carlos Tocci is over two years younger than Roman Quinn.

    Quinn has no future in CF for the Phillies.

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    1. Are you kidding, that is the only place Quinn has a future.He will never be a major League SS.

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  22. Let’s wake up on the tocci kid, just because his is only 17. Who cares ? He will never have enough strength to play this game

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  23. Z Green just crushed his 2nd double off the right field wall to once again bring in another run. It’s only the 2nd game, but this is encouraging.

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  24. Glad Zack Green has gotten some attention. He just might be the whole system’s best right handed power bat of all the players not named Franco. He showed SOME of that power in his first full season, and of course needs to make the necessary adjustments like most prospects on the way up.

    Originally, he was called a shortstop but his range lacked some though his glove appeared just fine along with plenty of arm for the throw from 3rd base. He has been one that I’ve liked to follow and believe he’ll become more valued as the season progresses.
    He was one of the infielder-emphasis group drafted in 2011 along with Quinn, T Greene, H Martinez, Asche, Walding, and Overbey. (Which indicates they were drafting for the best players available…as long as they were infielders.)

    With 3rd base seemingly in the prospective hands of Asche and Franco, it would not be a surprise to see Zack moved to the OF to get (hoped-for, “expected”) righty power in the lineup.

    Some time before it all shakes out but it doesn’t hurt to speculate.

    Go Zack!!

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  26. Pretty depressing things today, first franco is slow, old , and on drugs, biddle at best is 4 or fifth starter. dugan nothing that but a 250, okay outfielder, I never saw franco thought he might be able to hit, without drugs, but when scouts tell you, he is old and on ped, you have to listen, asche has to be moved cause he isnt good filder, and not a power hitting third basemen. tocci is nothing special, unless he get to be build like the hulk, best hope is 26 year guy to be a relief pitcher, who is coming out of the independent league, the system is really bad, worst than I THOUGHT. Our first round draft choice,wont hit better than galvis who is hitting like 220. wish we had on prospect we could count on.That was playing above low a ball.

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    3. Sure, one guy somewhere says something about his age and PEDs and, all of a sudden, it’s a confirmed fact. I am sure they can confirm his age somehow and have already done so (by the way, judging from his picture, he looks his age) and if he’s on PEDs he will test positive soon enough. Until then, the safer assumption is that neither of these scandalous rumors are true. Wow, talk about rank speculation and unwarranted character assassination.

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      1. rocccom has completed the transformation into a troll. At least FreeAEC had original original troll material, roccom is just a rambling mess.

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    4. Drug testing in the minors is more intensive and liberal then at the MLB level, where CBA/union regulations are more adherent. So Franco, if indeed as speculated is on PEDS, will show soon or would have shown already.

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      1. Where is the PED speculation coming from? Brad’s post above clearly states that a scout mentioned something about Franco being older than his listed age, and that there were no other concerns about the player. The scout separately had some things to say about PEDs in the minors, which he didn’t go into detail about. In no way did I take this as an insinuation that Franco is using PEDs, and it shouldn’t be repeated anywhere else that this accusation has been made.

        The entire thing should be taken with a spoonful of salt, anyway. It sounds like this scout was talking out of his a$$ because Franco isn’t as lanky as most 20-year-olds. Whatever.

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          1. roccoms post is clearly a sarcastic summary of all the garbage different posters used to bash the prospects yesterday

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    2. Yeah front end #1 and #2 starters, mid-rotation #3 and some #4, back end some #4 and #5s.

      Remember it is the pitcher profile not their actual spot in a rotation that determines it.

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  29. By the way, this was a pretty nice list – I would have a number of minor adjustments (not sure I’d have Asche, Milner or Rosin quite that high) and I might actually have Dugan somewhat higher, but it’s a damned good and defensible list.

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  31. Nice concise writeup. Agree on nearly all accounts.
    Clearly a Top2 system right now with Biddle looking like a likely #3 and possible #2 starter. Franco will need prove himself in AA for me to be fully onboard but he has been tremendous and if Miguel Cabrera can play 3B then I expect Franco will also.

    Asche’s profile I agree with, but I was just hoping a below/almost average regular would be near the bottom of Phillies Top10 due to upside of other prospects. At his peak I figure Asche to be an average regular at 3B which on a good team would be batting in the bottom 3rd of the lineup.

    Quinn and Tocci still seem like huge upside guys. Great speed matters for defense and will allow them to survive with lesser power. I had hoped Quinn would be a bit better in the field but his Spring Training reports were impressive. Tocci is going to be like Galvis and way too young for his level. A Ben Revere profile at 20yrs old with possible projection is really valuable player. I’d throw Cozens in there as a high upside guy, essentially taking Larry Greene’s place as projectionable huge power hitter.
    Watson, Mecias, Gueller are still very high risk guys. They all need some significant improvements to hit their projections. I have no idea how to determine if any of them might make it.

    I think most of the rest of the guys have average starter upside which is not exciting but is at least cheap. I doubt Dugan hits for plus power for RF. Perkins has a similar profile but could be a bad 3B if needed. Joseph, Pullin, Altherr still have a ways to go. Rosin, Milner, Pettibone have average rated stuff and Martin might get bumped to the bullpen if Papelbon is traded.

    Based on these rankings, I always wonder who the best trade asset is. Who might be overrated by other teams or looks good now but has a fatal flaw that will prevent their success in the Majors? I think Asche is not going to be a game changing player but I might rate his ‘clubhouse presence’ as a factor in keeping him. Quinn’s bat seems like it might be good so even in CF he seems like an excellent player. Possibly an Anthony Gose profile who I’d want a significant player in return. Only if Phillies agree that Franco has an uncorrectable hole in his swing would I entertain trading him, and looking for a Mike Olt (Top50) type return.

    I think Altherr is still a guy that might fetch an okay return. He has significant upside, is performing quite well, and has been well rated in the past by scouts. If someone was interested in Dugan I’d certainly listen just because I think his upside is a Mayberry type player (but at least from the left side which is a much more valuable platoon). Down seasons by Joseph, Martin, Morgan have limited their value while Ruf, Collier, Valle, Cloyd probably have no trade value at all.

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