Box Score Recap – 6/17/2013

Box Score Recap

Kelly Dugan with his eighth homerun. More like Kelly DuGone, amirite?!?!?!?!? Severino Gonzalez with 3 Ks in 2 Innings. More like Severi”K”now, know what I mean??!?!? Dylan Cozens with 2 steals in his first game of the year. More like Dylan CozenSB, ok that one’s a reach. Just that one, though.

Here’s a link to the boxscore from the FSL All-Star Game Saturday. Not good for our Threshers. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2013_06_15_fssafa_fsnafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

And here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130617

6-17-2013

 

105 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 6/17/2013”

  1. I’m going to enjoy following the Crosscutters this year. Cozens with 2 steals is a great sign – even better is the 1 BB 0 Ks.

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  2. Way ahead of myself but I would sign Corey hart to play rf for two years and Dugan starts in 2016! Although Amaro says he doesn’t do 5yr plans…I do!

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  3. When we were thinking of potential lineups for W-port, I don’t think many of us were looking for Gustavo Martinez or Samuel Hiciano. I tend to lose track of guys who are signed and then spend time in the VSL or DSL, but Hiciano’s name is familiar and both guys look like there might be something there. Anybody have scouting reports on them?

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    1. I got what I saw at State College last night. Gustavo Martinez is rather smallish , very slight looking, but looks like he can really run and go get the ball in CF. Made a couple of nice plays. Hiciano did not do much in game, but looks like body movements create a lot of energy output. Well-muscled and wiry. Looks like ball has potential to jump off bat. Produced some foul balls that were hard hit and sliced a lot .

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  4. Loved the Crosscutters game tonight. Gueller was good, solid outing. I expect him to get better as the season wages on. And Cozens. I read he had five really good at bats. Worked the counts and seemed to be able to recongize pitches. I’m exicted to see those two perform over the course of the season.

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  5. Im curious why Deiber Olivera, a prospect signed in 2011 out of Venezuela, has been moved to the DSL after playing 2 years in the VSL. He is one i had hoped they would bring over this year for at least a shot after he put up pretty good numbers at the hot corner.

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    1. Seems to me, if I got the right list off of here in the spring, that Olivera was brought to the States for Extended Spring Training , so , it would seem, that the organization liked other people better. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone has seen the GCL roster , as yet, so , It may be that he was sent to the Dominican complex to work for a couple of days and will return for GCL season. It has been done before.

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  6. Is the opinion here that both Dugan and Franco will be moved up to AA soon?

    Seems like a good move to me. Should they make a success of that move, maybe both can start at AA in ’14. After that, who knows? It would provide a possible strong right handed power , a right fielder with decent OF and maybe superior hitting skills thus fulfilling his status as their first draft pick which was in the 2nd round about 3-4 years ago . Adding them to the team would be a breath of fresh air…….and bring back excitement that is now missing with the big club.

    Now…let’s go after some better prospects to freshen the present team…trades a’comin.

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      2. I wouldn’t go too gaga over his BA and OPS given the unsustainable BABIP. I’d love to know his LD%. That being said, given his ISO, age, BB%, and tolerable K%, I’d love to see him (and Franco) tested in AA.

        Has there been any reports on Dugan’s fielding? I thought initially it was thought that he would be limited to LF/1B.

        I’ll admit that Dugan was one of the players I underestimated this offseason. I wish I could say the same for Altherr and Collier

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          1. Altherr’s numbers have been dropping like a stone. He is a prime example of what happens when BABIP starts to normalize especially when paired with a bad K%.

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            1. No question, his first month was not sustainable. However, his BB rate is good and he has a nice jump up in ISO. Couple that with 14 steals and the CF spot and his season is just fine. I still consider 2013 a breakout for him. If he can work on the strike-outs to bring it back to last year’s rates, I think he can get a cup of coffee in Reading this year.

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            2. We’ll have to see wait he can do in the next couple of months. It could be a breakout year for him or he could remain a toolsy fringe prospect. Trust me I hope I am wrong, he seems to be the most advanced CF prospect in the minors right now.

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        3. Point taken, although it should be noted that Dugan had a .391 BABIP in nearly 500 plate appearances last season. He’s due for a regression of sorts this season, but his overall numbers suggest he consistently drives the ball to places where there are no gloves.

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          1. Aye, Dugan has a history of solid LD% and BABIP so I’d calculate my projections for him at around .320-.330 BABIP. It will be interesting to see how he handles the big jump in pitching talent at AA.

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          2. It looks like his BABIP has risen in line with his LD%. He could just be a guy that hits the ball hard consistently.

            Anyway, nothing left for him to prove at CLW. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a promotion this week.

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            1. Dugan is a big strong guy, bigger than I expected, who hits the ball very hard without a long swing. Plus, his OF play has been better than everyone expected. He definitely has potential, AA should be a great test for him when they decide to move him up. I expect Franco and Milner will be joining him when he goes up. Hollands might go up too. Anyone notice how well he’s pitched?

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        4. Aron- I haven’t seen reports on his fielding but he has played exclusively at RF this year without an error so he clearly is at leats solid. He isn’t said to be very fast so I imagine that range is an issue, though I have seen reports previously that he has a pretty good arm.

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          1. They only reports on Dugan’s arm I have seen are from this site which rated it a 50, which is fringy for a RF, but if he can play there it does tremendous things for his value.

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        5. Well you are wrong on Altherr and Dugan and right on Collier that is 1:3 not bad but your Babip is unsustainable.

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  7. And, oh yes, HOPE that Cozens shows a lot more than L. Greene.

    And, by the way…does anybody know the reason(s) for cutting T Greene a few days ago?

    With his supposedly physicaly athletic frame and mentioned skills on his draft day reports, it surprises me to see them give up so quickly on him??? Was it maybe something to do with his character, etc?…if so, we’ll never know.

    Anybody? Just saying…..

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    1. Don’t know about his character, but a K rate well over 40% in low A ball was probably a big factor.

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    2. Do you know him personally to make that assumption? He was let go based on his performance on the field. Do you know stats that over 70% of tops draft picks do not succeed in this business. Not so easy.

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    4. He probably just wasn’t showing enough improvement on the field to make the Phils want to keep him. This is his 3rd year in the system and there are other younger and talented players who deserve spots on the short-season teams. I doubt the decision goes much beyond that.

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    2. Silly question. L. Greene has played two months and, after one game, Cozens has already overtaken him. We all have to face what appears to be the high likelihood that Greene will be a complete and abject failure as a professional ball player.

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            1. Heard at one time 2 or 3 per draft class to make it to the big leagues was a successful draft class.

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            2. I just happened to come across this article the other day. About 70% of all top 100 prospects fail and those guys are obviously the cream of the crop. It’s sobering. Biddle, Quinn, Franco will all probably fail. Not collectively, but individually. It’s funny when you think about fringier prospects like Asche, Pettibone, and Cesar Hernandez. People have them penciled in for starting jobs in the near future when history shows there’s almost no chance they’ll be of much value in the majors.

              http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

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            3. “It’s sobering. Biddle, Quinn, Franco will all probably fail.”

              No, they will probably not all fail. You are using the wrong statistic to measure their likelihood of success. You measure it using ALL prospects in those classes AT THE TIME THEY ARE DRAFTED. If you wait a few years, some prospects hit it big (Biddle, Franco [who by the way, was not drafted – he was an international sign]) and others fall by the wayside (Hewitt, Collier, and most likely Greene). Franco will likely, at worst, be an decent regular in the big leagues and he could end up being a LOT better than that. Biddle has the upside of a top of the rotation starter, but odds are that he will be at least a middle of the rotation starter. Quinn is still a crapshoot – his upside is huge – an all-star – his downside is that he never makes the majors.

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            4. Catch, I think you’re off base here. Read that article again–those are failure rates for *Top 100* prospects; for the Hewitts and Colliers, the failure rate is even higher.

              Go back and look at this site from five years ago (or don’t–we were both here, I think)–folks envisioned Adrian Cardenas and Michael Taylor hitting in the middle of this team’s lineup, with Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp anchoring the rotation. Those were our TOP GUYS, and none of them are going to be major league starters.

              I sometimes think this site should come with a disclaimer–“for entertainment purposes only.” Anything more than that, we just don’t know.

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            6. Catch, I did say in the next sentence that it’s likely they’ll fail individually, not all three collectively. I do think one of the three will probably make it. But Franco, Biddle, and (to a lesser extent) Quinn haven’t “hit it big”. They’ve merely risen to a point where it’s plausible they’ll contribute one day as big league regulars. I agree both have a shot to be very good, but you say that Biddle and Franco are likely competent big leaguers at worst and that’s just not true. it’s much more likely that Biddle struggles with his command or gets hurt and Franco has problems with more advanced pitching. They fall into the category of guys rated between 20-100 in BA’s top 100 and the article shows how well those types of players have performed in the past. It’s not like I’m making this up.

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            7. Fair points – thanks for the clarification. Agreed that we probably overrate our top prospects.

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        3. That’s a silly rationalization. The majority of position players drafted in the top 40 and given a $1M signing bonus aren’t totally over-matched in low A ball. Greene appears to be a huge, huge miss by the Phillies scouting department. It’s actually hard to imagine that the scouts could be so wrong.

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          2. So you agree that the majority of prospects fail then? Because that’s what I said. I never said anything about how much he was paid.

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        4. Very true – it still does not make him any less of failure. How have you refuted my point?

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            1. Okay – it sounded like you were somehow detracting from the point that Larry Greene really appears to suck and is likely a huge failure. The point others made about his not even doing well in low A ball is well taken. We haven’t had a high draft pick fail this badly since Tim Moss.

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            4. Yeah, and technically Larry Greene’s career isn’t over, and he can get a few cups of coffee in the majors.
              Either way, there have been high draft picks all of the sport that have struggled.

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            6. Travis Mattair. 2nd round pick. Failure from the start. Don’t remember as much vitriol, even when he took his bonus, and retired after 3 seasons.

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            7. Just my theory, but I think because Jackie Bradley Jr was taken one pick after Greene and has already made his MLB debut, Larry Greene’s failure will stick in people’s minds more. Also, there were a lot of fans who wanted JBJ when he slipped to the Phillies.

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            9. No, there was discussions about Will Middlebrooks vs. Mattair. The Phillies passed on Middlebrooks because he wanted $1M to sign. So they took Mattair who accepted $400K. Middlebrooks is the starting 3B for Boston and Mattair is selling insurance somewhere. There are a number of examples like this.

              This goes back to all the conversations over the years here that the Phillies NEVER drafted any of the top overslot guys that were in the draft over the last decade. NONE of them.

              Was it good business? Did they really save money? Or did they really fail to understand and capitalize on the many opportunties they were presented with in the Draft and in LA over the last decade?

              You probably know where I stand on the answers to those questions.

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            10. Travis “Moose” Mattair is with the Reds now. He left to play college basketball, then came back to baseball and he’s a good 3rd baseman.

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            11. The majority of this team’s recent moves has lead me to believe that they’re not really cheap, they’re just clueless.

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            12. I don’t think the Phillies are cheap either…at least at the MLB level. I just think they have never figured out that the best dollar for dollar investment is the Draft, followed by LA. Not sure if I would use the word clueless…but certainly I think they have been obtuse about it. They ignore basic math when it comes to the ROI on amatuer talent.

              The Phillies annual budget for the Draft and LA suggests they almost viewed it as overhead…and expense…rather than an investment. The lack of balance of spending between MLB and the Farm System has undoubtedly cost them over the years.

              I had hoped that the run from 2005 thru 2011 showed them once and for all how valuable the Farm System was…but I don’t think the lesson sunk in as deeply as it should have

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      2. look at L.Green’s first game and season long stats ? Cozens will surprise everyone on his SB’s, not only his power ! Great draft pick!

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  9. If Wetzler signs, and his showing in the CWS could be a high point for him, he’ll have a very tired arm. He threw 102 pitches yesterday and had 130 or so the outing before. He’s averaging in the 120 area for the CWS. Oregon State is riding his arm as far as it will take them. It also means that the kid will come to the Phillies with little left for the year. The Phils might have to shut him down for a while to rest that arm.

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    1. The Phillies look at those things for College pitchers (especially starters) and have been known to limit innings in the past. They sometimes shut them down early if they think the innings pitcher is too high when added to their college IP for the season and most guys at Williamsport for them they draft out of college usually just pitch 5 innings.

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  10. Is Gus Martinez one of the guys who was older than we thought they were when they signed a couple years ago?

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  11. No, not Gustavo Martinez, but Gustavo Gonzalez and somebody already released, I believe.

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  12. Lino had his best game in his history with the Phillies last night. I guess they will bring him along slowly now to develop all his skills. His position allows that to happen. It looks like a good move. They may keep the same perspective on Joseph when he returns. Nice starts for the Parr and Pierce. Hollands has been throwing better.

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    1. Hollands is a non-prospect – he stinks. He is a college pitcher who failed at Reading and is trying to piece together some type of career back in A ball. Don’t pin your hopes on him.

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      1. I don’t agree that he’s a non-prospect. Guys like him end up as LOOGYs all the time. Its the value of throwing with your left hand. He actually appears to be throwing lots of strikes now which was a big challenge for him previously. You never know….

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        1. Sure, you never know, but he’s a really, really fringe prospect. Could he possibly make it as a LOOGY? Yes, it’s possible, But I view that as a 1 in 10 shot, at best, and, even then, he’d be a fringe/AAAA guy at best. His stuff is very pedestrian.

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    2. Lino reworked his swing in EST. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a breakout for him. As bad as we think he was last season he still put up a 90 WRC+ at Lakewood at age 19. Biggest issue for me are the ridiculous amounts of passed balls last season, lets hope he fixed that hole in his game.

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    1. As stated by others, the exciting thing about Dugan is that, even apart from the BA, he’s performing very well. Decent K rate, good power, good BB rate.

      As for the BA, of course you have to regress it somewhat for the very high BABIP. But another positive for him is that he has always had a high BABIP in the minors (.382 over 1017 AB). Now, two caveats there – SS is still smallish, and minor league BABIP does not always translate – but I wouldn’t be surprised if his major league BABIP was in the .330 range.

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    2. he is age appropriate for Reading and should go there within next two weeks. I get sense his power will go up at Reading but Avg will go down.

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  15. I thought I would see Kevin Brady and Andre Kinder in the Williamsport Roster. I don’t think we will see them in GCL at their age. Are the Phillies getting them ready for Lakewood?

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      1. Brady hasn’t pitched for Lakewood since May 5. I believe the Phils sent him back to EST. So, yeah, dunno what their plans are for him.

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    1. Was jumped from VSL when they need a pitcher. Big time curveball, potentially average changeup, and fringe average velocity. Very advanced pitcher, needs to face advanced hitters before you can say what he is.

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      1. Thanks, back of my mind knew he must be a finesse guy embarrassing undisciplined hitters. Have never heard a scouting report until now, thank you. B-ref says 6’1, 150lb – accurate? That would lead me to believe he’s got a minimum of 20 or so pounds to gain over the next year or so that could help his projection.

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      2. At this rate, he might have the fastest rise since Mike Zagurski the year he went from A ball to the majors. If Gonzalez doesn’t give up any hits or runs, they’ll have to move him into the rotation or move him up even further at some point. He’s making it look much easier than it is.

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      3. That sounds a lot like Julio Rodriguez who baffled hitters until he got high enough in the minors to get smacked around.

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        1. thats the fear with him. But we should be careful not to project everyone as Julio Rodriguez who doesn’t have + fastball and its getting hitters out.

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          1. More so, JRod had a 40 fastball, for a RHP the difference between a 40 and 50 fastball is immense. All this means for Gonzalez is he is not rocketing up prospect lists right now

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    2. Because nobody predicted this for him. He apparently went to Clearwater to get into shape with the intent he would go back to Williamsport. But he got there and kicked some serious ass. So he wasn’t really expected to be in Lakewood, let alone Clearwater. The other reason is that the reports are that his pure stuff is not that great and, if that’s so, we’ll need to view his breakout with a high degree of skepticism until he does the same in AA. AA, especially Reading, is where many weak pitching prospects get exposed (hello Julio Rodriguez).

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  17. Saw Cutters last night. Long time(2-3 years) follower. First time posting. Amazed at all the draft info.
    Cozens was a ” Holy Crap” moment for me. Hit nothing but screamers. Huge frame. Dave Parker but slimmer. Real strong throwing arm. Huge bonus with the the two stolen bases. What a future.

    Pullin puts the bat on the ball. Spray hitter. Little shaky in the field.

    Lino had good at-bats. Hit a rocket off right-center fence and thrown out at second. Very strong and accurate throws. Did pretty decent blocking balls in the dirt.

    Parr makes contact but has a funky style. No stride and front leg straight up and stiff.

    Zack Greene needs lots of patience at 3B defensively. Bat was okay.

    Gueller was throwing 85-86 consistently. One time hit 91. Threw some off-speed stuff at 71-74 to strike out guys. Liked how he was calm and in charge on the mound (which looked like Mt. Everest). Battles out there and didn’t lose composure when defense let him down.

    Manny “not Manuare” Martinez. Has some real pop on his fastball. Mostly 90-92 range. Command was spotty at times and unlike Gueller showed too much emotion when something wrong happened.

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    2. Was talking to Mitch Rupert last night and he said the gun is normally about 2-3 mph slow. Which would put the velocity slightly better especially for the first start of the year.

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