Around the System–Starting Pitching

A look at starting pitching around the system. Next trip around will include Williamsport and GCL.

Lehigh Valley

Tyler Cloyd, 26, Phils 18th round pick in 2008; 7 starts; 1-4 with a 6.57 ERA; 38.1IP 51H 12BB 35K; 9 HR allowed; 0.83 GO/AO; .315 opp. avg., 1.64 WHIP; 2.8BB/8.2K per nine.  Cloyd returned just yesterday to Lehigh Valley after spending several weeks in the Phils rotation and doing a good job for the Phils. Ironically, he was doing a less than good job for the ‘Pigs when he was called up, but kudos for good work for the big club.

Carlso Zambrano, 32, SIgned as a free agent in 2013; 4 starts; 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA between Clearwater, Reading and Lehigh Valley; 21.1IP 14H 11BB 17K. Zambrano was less than impressive in his last start for Lehigh Valley (5IP 4H 2ER 4BB 5K) and will have to take it up a notch to displace Pettibone from the Phils rotation.

Ethan Martin, 24, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 13 games; 6-3 with a 5.19ERA; 67.2IP 63H 40BB 62K; 8HR allowed; 0.94 GO/AO; .254 opp. avg., 1.52 GO/AO; 5.2BB/8.3K per nine; .274 vs. LH, .237 vs. RH, .254 with RISP; 5-1 with a 3.97 ERA since May 1. Control continues to be the primary issue for Martin who has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter when he can control it.

BJ Rosenberg, 27, Phils 13th round pick in 2008; 10 starts; 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA; 52IP 53H 31BB 38K; 5HR allowed; 0.98 GO/AO; .264 opp. avg., 1.61 WHIP; 5.3BB/6.5K per nine; .241 vs. LH, .281 vs. RH, .191 with RISP. Rosenberg was struggling consistently in the Lehigh Valley rotation, perhaps because of the injury that landed him on the DL.  It would benefit Rosenberg, who does have talent to be able to focus on either the rotation or the ‘pen without bouncing back and forth as he has done.

Raul Valdes, 35, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 6 starts; 1-2 with a 4.20ERA; 30IP 30H 9BB 25K; 3HR allowed; 0.55 GO/AO; .261 opp. avg., 1.30 WHIP; 2.7BB/7.5K per nine; .345 vs. LH, .233 vs. RH, .300 with RISP. Valdes has been “fine” since coming down to AAA. Nothing more, nothing less.

Tom Cochran, 30, Re-signed as a free agent in 2013; 11 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2-5 with a 5.24ERA; 55IP 59H 32BB 43K; 6HR allowed; 0.65 GO/AO; .278 opp. avg., 1.65 WHIP; 5.2BB/7.0K per nine. 2-0 with a 2.25ERA in 3 June starts. Cochran has looked good in June, but was consistently bad prior to that.

Adam Morgan, 23, Phils 3rd round pick in 2011; 8 starts; 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA; 41.2IP 47H 12BB 29K 6HR allowed; 0.81 GO/AO.283 opp.avg., 1.41 WHIP; 2.6BB/6.3K per nine; Morgan rose right on into the top five prospects going into the season, but has difficulties right from the outset of 2013.  He has now been on the DL with rotator cuff issues for over a month and it is extremely unlikely he returns before August 1.

Reading

Jesse Biddle, 21, Phils 1st round pick in 2010; 13 starts; 3-6 with a 2.95ERA; 73.1IP 47H 36BB 86K 4HR allowed; 0.95 GO/AO; .182 opp. avg., 1.13 WHIP; 4.4BB/10.5K per nine; .085 vs. LH, .204 vs. RH, .250 with RISP; 1-5 with a 3.83 ERA since May 1. Biddle has been outstanding. The lone complaint is a relatively high walk rate that will come back to haunt him in the majors if not improved upon.  No reason to rush Biddle. Maybe a couple of starts at AAA the last couple of weeks of the season, but not before in my opinion.

Seth Rosin, 24, Acquired from San Francisco in 2012; 13 starts; 3-4 with a 4.25ERA; 72IP 68H 19BB 52K; 8 HR allowed; 0.90 GO/AO; .248 opp. avg., 1.20 WHIP; 2.3BB/6.5K per nine;.235 vs. LH, .261 vs. RH, .348 with RISP; 2-2 with a 5.00ERA since May 1. AN excellent start to the 2013 campaign but has slowed considerably over the last month. Concerning numbers with RISP.

David Buchanan, 24, Phils 7th round pick in 2010; 14 starts; 3-7 with a 4.65 ERA; 81.1IP 89H 23BB 52K; 8HR allowed; 1.03 GO/AO; .285 opp. avg., 2.5BB/5.7K per nine; 1.37 WHIP; .253 vs. LH, .313 vs. RH, .292 with RISP, 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 3 June starts. Buchanan struggled in his return from a finger injury during the later part of 2012.  He seems to have found his groove recently, but several more good starts are needed to confirm the turn around.

Austin Wright, 24, Phils 8th round pick in 2011 draft; 8 games; 2-3 with a 7.96ERA; 31.2IP 29H 27BB 27K; 4 HR allowed; 0.67 GO/AO; .250 opp. avg., 1.76WHIP; 7.6BB/7.6K per nine;.182 vs. LH, .266 vs. RH, .400 with RISP; 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA in 3 June starts. There is hope that Wright has turned the corner after a miserable first two months of the season. There was an awful lot of hope for Wright who was the FSL Pitcher of the Year in 2012.

Brody Colvin, 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2009; 9 games (4 starts); 2-0 with a 4.45 ERA; 30.1IP 26H 16BB 13K; 0.89 GO/AO; .241 opp. avg., 1.39 WHIP; 4.7BB/3.9K per nine; 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 4 starts. Colvin’s issue du jour this year is his health. He has been on and off the DL twice and has been moderately effective when pitching.  His strikeout rate has dropped to near non existent, but seeing how awful his 2012 was, 2013 has been a tick above when considering his pitching and his health.

Clearwater

Perci Garner, 24, Phils 2nd round pick in 2010; 12 starts; 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA; 70IP 72H 32BB 55K; 3HR allowed; 2.02 GO/AO; .275 opp. avg., 1.48 WHIP; 4.1BB/7.1K per nine; .250 vs. LH, .290 vs. RH, .276 with RISP; 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA. Garner has been good, but not great..fairly hittable and walking more than you would like to see.

Hoby Miler, 22, Phils 7th round pick in 2012; 13 starts; 6-2 with a 3.36ERA; 72.1IP 67H 16BB 72K 7HR allowed; 0.75 GO/AO; .251 opp. avg., 1.21 WHIP; 2.0BB/9.0K per nine; .154 vs. LH, .282 vs. RH, .339 with RISP; 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA since May 1. Milner has been consistently excellent over the past 6-8 weeks.  Milner has a small frame, but I am becoming a believer.

Nick Hernandez, 24, Phils 12th round pick in 2009; 11 starts, 3-1 with a 4.01ERA; 58.1IP 58H 22BB 64K; 6HR allowed; 0.48 GO/AO; .266 opp. avg., 3.4BB/9.8K per nine; 1.37 WHIP; .179 vs. LH, .285 vs. RH, .280 with RISP. Very good to see Hernandez return in a successful fashion from significant arm issues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hernandez land in the bullpen sometime soon, as he is very effective against lefties and not sure his stuff as a starter plays long term in the rotation.

Mario Hollands, 24, Phils 10th round pick in 2010; 12 games (5 starts) between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA; 39IP 41H 10BB 37K; 1.17 GO/AO; .265 opp. avg., 1.31 WHIP; 2.3bb/8.5K per nine; 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 5 starts for Clearwater. In my mind, Hollands should be with Reading and in their rotation. He has been pitching very well and his age is advanced for A+.

Ethan Stewart, 22, Phils 47th round pick in 2010; 9 starts; 0-1 with a 7.28ERA; 38.1IP 48H 42BB 21K; 5HR allowed; 0.77 GO/AO; .318 opp. avg., 9.8BB/4.9K per nine; 2.35 WHIP; .303 vs. LH, .322 vs. RH, .338 with RISP.  A line that simply cant get much worse.  Stewart has walked twice as many as he has struck out (well over a hitter an inning)and opponents are hitting him all over the yard.

Gabrial Arias, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2007; 12 games (7 starts); 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA; 54.2IP 50H 14BB 39K; 2HR allowed; 14BB 39K; 0.72 GO/AO; .248 opp. avg., 2.3BB/6.4K per nine;  1.17 WHIP; 4-2 with a 3.10 era as a starter; .224 vs. LH, .257 vs. RH, .217 with RISP. Arias was outstanding in the rotation but has now been on the DL for three plus weeks.

Colin Kleven, 22, Phils 33rd round pick in 2009; 3 starts, 0-3 with a 14.29ERA; 11.1IP 21H 5BB 19K; 1.00 GO/AO; .389 opp. avg. Had three disastrous starts before being placed on the DL two months ago.

Lakewood

Yoel Mecias, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 12 games (10 starts); 4-2 with a 3.71ERA; 53.1IP 49H 24BB 62K; 3HR allowed; 1.16 GO/AO; .243 opp. avg., 1.36 WHIP; 4.0K/10.5 K per nine; .196 vs. LH; .260 vs. RH, .246 with RISP; 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA since May 1. Mecias has been far and away the most consistent and most promising Lakewood starter. Just 19, I wouldn’t push him to Clearwater just yet but he has been just a tick below dominant since the beginning of May.

Shane Watson, 19, Phils 1st round pick in 2012; 13 starts; 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA; 56IP 54H 24BB 40K; 11 HR allowed; 1.63 GO/AO; .250 opp. avg; 1.39 WHIP; 3.8BB/6.4K per nine; .214 vs. LH, .273 vs. RH, .286 with RISP; 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA since May 1. Not a pretty line at all for Watson but the Phils have limited what type of pitches he can throw to a certain extent so other pitchs can progress.  That being said, the 11 home run balls is quite concerning and he has had trouble putting together consecutive positive performances.

Jon Musser, 21, Phils 21st round pick in 2010; 5 starts; 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA; 23IP 27H 10BB 10K; 4HR allowed; 0.57 GO/AO; .303 opp. avg., 1.60 WHIP; .257 vs. LH, .333 vs. RH, .267 with RISP; 3.9BB/.3.9K per nine; Musser has been very hittable since joining Lakewood from Extended Spring in mid May.

Kevin Walter, 21, Phils 20th round pick in 2010; 3 starts; 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA; 14IP 13H 8BB 8K; 1.13 GO/AO; .245 opp. avg., 1.50 WHIP; Only 3 starts this year for Walter so far.  Too early to judge

Miguel Nunez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 13 games (9 starts); 5-4 with a 4.91 ERA; 62.1IP 72H 19BB 32K; 0.59 GO/AO; .290 opp. avg., 1.45 WHIP; .307 vs. LH, .279 vs. RH, .253 with RISP; 2.7BB/4.6K per nine; 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in 3 June starts. Nunez has really struggled as of late after being somewhat effective through May.

Nic Hanson, 21, Phils 16th round draft pick in 2012; 11 games (5 starts); 1-1 with a 3.56 ERA; 43IP 45H 10BB 41K; 1HR allowed; .266 opp. avg., 1.40 GO/AO; 1.27 WHIP; 2.0BB/8.5K per nine; 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his 5 starts; .279 vs. LH, .257 vs. RH, .340 with RISP. Hanson was excellent after being moved into a starting role from the bullpen.  Unfortunately as he was hitting his groove, Hanson ended up on the DL and has spent the last month there.

13 thoughts on “Around the System–Starting Pitching

        1. Previous scouting reports have said he has a good fastball and curveball, so if that’s still true then he has a shot. Maybe he’ll be more effective out of the bullpen, but it’s hard to say until he does it.

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  1. I dont understand why they don’t let Severino Gonzalez get some more starts. The dude has been untouchable as a long reliever/spot starter.

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    1. They must not think all that highly of him. Look at the numbers Keivi Rojas put up last year and he didn’t get challenged with an aggressive placement. It’s also entirely likely that Gonzalez doesn’t have the stuff to stick as a starter so they just keep him in the long man role.

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    2. Maybe after Milner or someone else gets moved up. He only threw 92 innings last year so there’s some benefit to limiting how much he pitches this year. Besides that, reading comments about him from the Phils’ decision makers, they’re plain surprised he’s done as well as he has. Maybe they’re still waiting to see if he’s for real at that level.

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  2. Is Mencias in our top 10? Gotta be. Top 5? maybe He’s been among the best starting pitchers at Low A this year. What is his stuff like?

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    1. Fastball is low 90s touching 94 the changeup flashes plus potential. The breaking ball is a distance away though. The lack of breaking ball keeps his stock down. He is right outside the top 10 to me right next to Watson.

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  3. For an organization whose depth is pitching this summary is more disappointing than I expected.
    In AAA, the Phillies rid themselves of Cook and Lopez to go with all prospects which was a great sign. Morgan was bad and DL’d. Pettibone was okay and doing okay in the majors. Cloyd, terrible in AAA, was tolerable in the majors, a surprise for me. Martin with possibly the most upside still with huge walk rate but also getting hit pretty well. Rosenberg, I figured, was a fill in since he really should be a reliever or long man at best.

    Fewer pluses than minuses throughout the group but injuries are to be expected. Biddle and Mecias project as impact guys. Morgan and Wright still have time. Rosin and Milner might be end of rotation guys.
    Unfortunately, not much talent under age22 from this list.

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    1. Pitching depth is a mirage. The bust rate is so high with pitchers. That’s why you can never stop drafting quality pitchers or signing them out of LA and developing them. Phillies took a big pass on pitchers in this past draft and going by who they’re targeting and who they have spent money on in recent years I don’t expect to sign any high priced pitching talent out of Latin America.

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      1. They have grabbed a fairly high priced pitcher a couple of times recently in Franklyn Vargas and Lewis Alezones. They have a ton of arms around EST right now and I think overall they prefer to spend on a bunch of guys with projection.

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  4. It seems to me that the Phillies sent down the wrong pitcher. Cloyd has allowed three earned runs total in his last three appearances. On the other hand,in his last three appearances Pettibone has allowed 11 in fewer innings! I am not surprised that Cloyd just pitched an awful game for Lehigh Valley last night; he is probably unable to focus due to wondering why the organization keeps jerking him around.

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