Box Score Recap – 6/15/2013

Box Score Recap

Larry Greene goes deep. First of the year. Over/under on how many he has to hit to silence the skeptics by the end of the year? I say 12. Nice line from David Buchanan. Two of his last three starts have been really solid.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130615

6-15-2013

109 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 6/15/2013”

  1. I think we are all realizing that Larry Greene isn’t making it. I’d be SHOCKED if he hits more than 5 HR this year. The guy makes so little contact. He’s a SO machine. When we drafted him, I was hoping for at least a Dave Kingman type a guy. For all you younguns out there, he hit ALOT of HR, but aside from that, couldn’t hit a lick.

    Like

      1. Dave Kingman had a career .780 OPS.

        Adam Dunn’s career OPS is .865

        Dunn has drawn more than a hundred walks in a season EIGHT times.

        Kong’s highest walk total in a season was 62.

        Like

  2. Went to the the Lakewood doubleheader last night and here are a few things I saw:

    1.Larry Greene hit a bomb to dead center but spent the rest of the night being too passive at the plate, with two called third strikes. He is a liability in left field. Future looks dim
    2.While Shane Watson had a good stat line his outs were hit hard. Fastball had good life but was straight and his offspeed stuff was non-existent. he struggled with command at times.
    3.Roman Quinn fielded 4 to 5 balls clean but his throws left a ton to be desired. He hit 2 balls hard out of 5 or 6 at bats I saw but he is very spread out in the box left-handed and had trouble catching up to good fastballs. He has great speed but has to get on more to use it.
    4.Mitch Walding was smooth in the field at third and the bat has some potential. Definitely has the skills to succeed but as said before needs consistency.
    5.Carlos Tocci hit all 3 balls to right field and was overpowered by good fastballs, as could be expected. Very skinny kid, not sure I can project big surge in power on that frame. Has a good outfield arm and tracked down several long fly balls. Someone to keep an eye on.
    6.Not much else there with this team – Inch is as bad as his numbers say, the bullpen had very little in the way of stopper arms and the offense was weak. The Gonzalez kid in game two had 3 nice hits – haven’t seen much on him

    Like

    1. “While Shane Watson had a good stat line his outs were hit hard. Fastball had good life but was straight and his offspeed stuff was non-existent”

      Don’t you wish the Phillies had taken Jesse Winker instead?

      But who cares about hitting? Besides, Jesse Winker draws too many walks.

      “Carlos Tocci hit all 3 balls to right field and was overpowered by good fastballs, as could be expected. Very skinny kid, not sure I can project big surge in power on that frame. “

      Tocci is actually 17 years old until the end of August and his body reflects that. In the video I saw of him he looks like he has wide shoulders. If he gets busy in the weight room he could have 10 – 15 HR pop four years from today when he’ll be 21. If his plate discipline has improved as you would hope over four years and the contact ability is what it is now he could be projectable as a 60 XBH guy in MLB with a .350+ OBP.

      Tocci has drawn 17 walks at Lakewood. Ben Revere has twelve with the Phillies. It will be over seven years before Tocci is as old as Revere is now. When Big Ben was 17 he was a junior in high school. Actually Revere had turned 17 while still a sophomore in high school.

      Tocci’s ceiling is probably a Victorino bat (sooner and for longer) with as good or better defensive skill.

      Like

      1. “Tocci is actually 17 years old until the end of August and his body reflects that. ”

        Won’t quote your entire post but spot on with respect to Tocci. He’s a HS kid playing low-A ball. He ”should” look out of place when compared to others physically and the fact that his physical tools don’t match that of his competition makes it even more impressive that he is able to be competitive.

        Like

        1. Does Tocci go to Williamsport when it starts to give him more playing time against a little easier competition? I figure he’s due to repeat Lakewood anyway. Might as well see what he can do in Williamsport.

          Like

          1. I read something yesterday or today that said the Phils will keep Tocci, L. Greene and Watson at Lakewood…… for now.

            Like

            1. I hope they keep Tocci in Lakewood, so we can get a good look at Tromp in CF at Williamsport.

              Like

            2. Vor….wasn’t Tromp the ‘guy’ last year coming out of the GCL that piqued your interest also?

              Like

      2. I can’t say I agree about Tocci’s build. He looks to me to have very narrow shoulders … not the type of frame that is open to adding a lot of muscle. I certainly hope I’m wrong, though.

        Like

        1. I don’t completely buy the “looks skinny” argument. I’ve been an ectomorph all my life and while it’s more difficult to gain muscle mass then an endomorph or mesomorph it’s definitely not impossible. Tocci doesn’t have to be Mr. Universe (which he would most certainly fail at) he only needs to put on 30-40lbs which without steroids, at his age, is completely effort based, not body type based.

          As an FYI, I was 5’11” 122 when I was 16, by after completing military boarding school, shortly before my 19th birthday I was 6’1” 160, and could have easily gained another 20-30lbs of muscle from 19-22 if I’d continue my focus on power lifting, not drinking, and eating lots and lots of protein. Things are far more in ones control then the vast majority of the population believes.

          Like

    3. Thanks for the report. Im actually a little encorouraged by what you had to say about Watson. Because this confirms to me that they are making him pitch without his curveball at the moment to work on his other pitches. Once that goes back into his arsenal, he will generate alot more swing and misses.

      Like

    4. Thanks for the report … worth noting that Walding is currently nursing a seven-game hitting streak. Last season, he went into a major funk when he began struggling. This year, he seems to have developed some resiliency. Nice to see.

      Like

      1. It seemed to happen when they moved him into the 3 hole. I particularly like that. May be charles is protecting him a bit but he’s rising t the occasion and not shrivelling into a wall flower.

        Like

    5. I heard that they aren’t letting Watson throw the curve until after the 3rd inning. Did you notice that?

      Like

    7. Maybe someone can confirm this but I’ve read in comments on here, from MattWinks I think, that they’ve also limited or taken away Watson’s 2-seam fastball. So, the straight 4-seamer might not even be his best fastball presently.

      Like

      1. Correct no 2-seam fastballs for Watson, 4-seam only. Urging him to throw his change-up a lot and limited to no curveballs the first time through the order.

        Like

      2. Yeah, one of Watson’s family/friends posts here as Anonymous. He wrote a lengthy post reporting that the Phillies took away Watson’s 2-seamer, and he is not allowed to throw his curve the 1st time through the lineup. This is to force him to learn how to command his 4 seamer and to improve his change-up.

        Like

        1. That should read he is encouraged to throw a very limited amount of curveballs the first time through the order and/or preferably none.

          Like

  3. How long do you think it takes the Phillies to move Quinn to centerfield now that Crawfords in the mix ?

    Like

    1. Crawford might not be able to hit. We’ve seen nothing from him yet.

      Crawford could be a defensive wizard, but if he can’t hit he’s a bench guy.

      Like

    2. With two levels separating them, whether Quinn is moved to Centerfield is completely independent of Crawford. Quinn would move to CF next year at the earliest and would more likely would not get moved until after next season if there isn’t any improvement at shortstop.

      Like

        1. That sounds kinda snarky , sorry, I know we know nothing of Crawford really , I was just hoping he would start out on fire and push the subject , Quinn isnt exactly destroying low A , so he could stall at a level and put the thought of hey we have two guys we like at the same position close level why don’t we put the one who struggles at the position in cf . Its all hypothetical but to say one cannot have anything to do with the other is kinda ridiculous.

          Like

          1. Well the thing is Crawford is a high schooler. You can’t expect to really rush him through the system. A level at a time at least until Lakewood is probably what he’s going to get. So Quinn will have at least two years head start on him. Crawford could catch him if Quinn ends up not being good but I’m not exactly rooting for it. If by the time Crawford is ready and he and Quinn are on the same team then you move one or trade one.

            Like

        2. I am not Phillies but the logical and historical arguments over this have been gone over multiople times before with Quinn alone as well as the Asche.

          Like

          1. I am sorry if I come off as overly authoritative sometimes, but I do try to keep the discussions civil. If people do not think my posts contribute to this site let me know and I’ll stop cluttering up the board.

            Like

            1. What people think of what I have to say hasn’t stopped me from posting 🙂 I say keep going.

              Like

    3. Some people on here just don’t get player development. Quinn is a long long way from the big leagues and Crawford hasn’t even begun his professional career. The most optimistic scenario is they both turn out to be great prospects and in 14 Quinn plays at Clearwater and Crawford at Lakewood, in 15 Quinn goes to Reading and Crawford to Clearwater, in 16 Quinn goes to Lehigh and Crawford to Reading, and then they may move one off of SS. Everyone needs to stop worrying about a non issue for the next few years.

      Like

      2. I wasnt worried about it considering having two great shortstops is anyhing to worry about it it is something to be excited about. I was just trying to speculate and stir conversation out of those who know more than i do about such things . Thanks for your ideas and optomistic plans fo the both of them .but it isnt unheard of for a guy to be 20 or 21 in AAA . Its rare but not unheard of. I was just trying to get excited while watching big league team flounder

        Like

    1. He was a no risk, possible reward signing. There is literally zero reason to be upset with that signing. If you want to complain about a signing, stick to Delmon Young.

      Like

      1. and even signing Delmon Young wasn’t a terrible idea. Low risk, high reward. If he plays the entire rest of the season, then it’s an issue. But the only guy he’s really blocking at this point is Ruf who hasn’t been tearing it up to this point. Granted, I think D. Young is terrible and should be released tomorrow, but I can’t complain about taking a chance on him.

        Like

    1. BEST FIVE Amaro Trades/transactions: Bob Brookover

      –July 29, 2009: Acquired Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Cleveland Indians for minor-leaguers Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson.
      –Dec. 16, 2008: Signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million deal.
      –Dec. 13, 2009: Acquired Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays for Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, and Travis d’Arnaud.
      –July 29, 2010: Acquired Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar.
      –Dec. 15, 2010: Signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal.

      WORST FIVE
      –Dec. 13, 2009: Traded Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez.
      –Jan. 21, 2010: Re-signed Joe Blanton to a three-year, $24 million deal.
      –July 29, 2011: Acquired Hunter Pence from the Astros for Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana, and Josh Zeid.
      –April 26, 2010: Extended Ryan Howard’s contract through 2016 with a five-year, $125 million deal.
      –Dec. 3, 2009: Signed Placido Polanco to a three-year, $11.6 million deal.

      –

      Like

      1. That’s a decent assessment. As much as we hope that Amaro will win all transactions, no GM will win them all. Amaro is not the best but he is certainly not the worst.

        Like

        1. he had so many assets to play with in 2008 when he took over; it’s actually pitiful to see the demise of the franchise in just 5 years.

          he should be fired for that howard extension just on principle. what a dumbass.

          Like

      2. I don’t see how the 31.5 million dollar contract for Ibanez was a good deal. According to fangraphs he was worth 13.6 million over the course of 3 years. Of course he had a really good year in 2009 but that alone doesn’t make it a good contract.

        Like

        1. Yeah, they should really swap Ibanez and Polanco’s spots there. The Polanco contract ran a year longer than he was useful, but he was very good the first year and adequate the second, so that’s fine for under $12mil.

          Like

          1. Very true. Polanco was worth 28.5 million over the course of that 3 year deal and Amaro only had to pay 11.6. He was never negative WAR like Ibanez ended up being and even though Polanco’s final year wasn’t great with being hurt and not producing much on offense, he still had a valuable glove.

            Over the course of 3 years with the Phillies
            Polanco – 6.8 WAR
            Ibanez – 3.2 WAR

            Amaro paid Ibanez 20 million dollars more for 3 less wins. Don’t know how that goes down as a better move.

            Like

            1. I believe we lost a pick because of the Ibanez signing as well – sorry Brookeover, you’re grasping at straws here – Amaro just plain stinks as a GM.

              And really, Amaro’s best move was not trading D. Brown…..

              Like

            3. There were two main problems with the Ibanez deal. Losing a draft pick maybe rates third on the list.. One problem was the way Amaro atrociously misjudged the market. Had he not jumped in and given Ibanez a big contract at the start of Free Agent signing period that year, Amaro could have signed Ibanez or someone else much cheaper that year. The market for outfielders was way down that year. This is similar to the way he misjudged the market for Howard when he signed him (way to early) to that albatross extension.

              The second issue was that he was replacing a righthanded bat with a lefthanded bat. At the end of 2008 the middle of the Phillies order featured two lefties and two righties. with Ibanez it was 3 lefties with only one righty. There was no chance of resigning that righty and the top prospect was a lefty. By 2011 the team that had had a balanced was so lefty dominated they would gut the farm system to get Pence.

              Like

            4. I’m not defending the Howard contract but here were the other big deals signed after Howard’s deal:

              Adrian Gonzalez – 7 yrs/$154 mil
              Albert Pujols – 10 yrs/$240 mil
              Prince Fielder – 7 yrs/$214 mil

              That’s a ton of money for first basemen. So did Amaro judge the market correctly or set the market in regards to firstbasemen?

              Like

            5. IMO, if Ruben had signed Howard for $19/20M per annum vs $25M, the contract is not so much of an albatross and millstone on this team, plus Howard is not so denigraded by the masses. Is that a good assumption?

              Like

            6. Riggs….and in reply to your question….he set the market for first basemen, as misplaced as his thought process was at the time.

              Like

            7. Amaro gave Howard the kind of money the elite 1B got after he had already been exposed by the shift, And two of those names are also good with the glove.

              Like

            8. Another Ruben snafu…Dec 2008….signs Jason Werth to only two years vs opting to offer him more for the third additional year. Domino affect…..Pence would not be needed in 2011. Sigh, spilt milk at this point.

              Like

      4. If the Ibanez deal is his 2nd best move then his tenure is really a trainwreck. I don’t see how that was possibly better than the Halladay trade, even though Halladay’s arm might be shot.

        Also, the Oswalt trade only happened because they gave away Lee a few months prior. That one is probably more on ownership than on Rube though.

        Like

      5. “–July 29, 2011: Acquired Hunter Pence from the Astros for Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana, and Josh Zeid.”

        JULY 29, 2011

        The day that will live in infamy.

        This will be the worst trade in Phillies history, and of course, ED WADE was on the other end of it. It took Amaro and Wade together to do this to the Phillies, and now they are back together in the Phillies front office.

        Like

        1. Overstated, much?

          Wake me when Any one (1) of those players traded away, become All-stars.

          Like

          1. Okay see you in a couple years. Singleton is one of the best bats in the minors and Cosart is looking like a top of the rotation starter this year.

            Like

            1. Anonymous did you see how many walks cosart has given up, or you dont think that is a problem.

              Like

          2. “Wake me when Any one (1) of those players traded away, become All-stars.”

            Be prepared to hear the alarm. Singleton will make at least six All-Star teams and Domingo Santana has that kind of ceiling too, and Santana is looking like a better bet to reach that ceiling with each passing month. .870 OPS in AA while you folks here are excited about Franco’s numbers in A-ball.

            Like

            1. Santana’s K rate is 32.3 percent. Franco’s is 14 percent. That’s 2.5 strikeouts from Santana for every one from Franco. Yet Franco has more HR and 2B. And he’s only one level behind.

              Oh, and Franco’s ISO is twenty points higher (.273 vs. .253). So yeah, there’s a reason to be excited.

              Singleton will be a good player, no doubt. But “at least six All-Star teams”? You need to tone down the hyperbole.

              Like

            2. I’ll be surprised if Santana becomes a major league regular… and Cosart won’t be anymore than a back-end starter or reliever.

              Like

        2. I don’t think it even makes the top 10 worst trades in Phillies history. (Bowa and Sandberg for de Jesus for my money) nor the worst of Amaro’s tenure (Cliff Lee for three magic beans.)

          Like

          1. Do you not think much of the careers or Ryne Sandberg or Ferguson Jenkins? Agreed, Garcia was a pretty bad trade, but IMO it’s only the third worst Phillies trade to the City of Chicago. They should really stop trying to deal with that whole town.

            Like

            1. Atleast in the other two trades we got something back but Garcia gave us nothing. I guess it depends on how good Gio ends up.

              Like

          2. Garcia was a total loss, but Floyd is nothing but a .500 pitcher with an ERA close to 4.5 and has been particularly bad this year. Gonzales has been excellent, however. Don’t know if this makes my “worst ever” list.

            Like

      6. I can’t include the Polanco signing as one of his worst five transactions, though obviously a 2 year deal would have been much preferable. At least Polanco provided good defense and chipped in occasionally on offense.

        I think any number of Amaro’s acquisitions of washed up relief pitchers (and signing them to major league contracts) rate worse than signing Polanco

        Like

      2. I really find it funny, he spoke with greene and told him to get going, and he will turn it around now,. The guy must be a magician.

        Like

  8. Hope that is true. Now, how about Dugan going up with him? His numbers seem to qualify him.

    Franco in ’14’s Phils latter half? Possible. Righty power in the lineup? Welcome…and move along Franco!

    Like

  10. Hagerstown has no radar gun but I would safely say it was 90-92 at least. The zip was fine, but that was all he was throwing and now I was reading why. I understand the philosophy but I think you also have to let the kid pitch a little and have some success

    Quinn had good speed coming but side to side he had trouble with the angles. And his throws were off. Guess he had more issues today.

    Like

  11. Tocci definitely deserves to stick around in Lakewood I think. He had a big game today. Also Austin Wright with his 2nd good start in a row. He was either injured the whole time or he figured something out.

    Like

    1. There was a blurb about him in the Inquirer today that said his delivery was out of whack. Understandable, what with the injury he was trying to get past.

      Like

  12. Are we doing a mid season prospect ranking? Quinn and Greene moving down and Franco and Dugan moving up.

    Like

    1. I was going to wait until the end of June to release my updated Top 20 (or 30, I haven’t decided). There will likely be an open thread for Reader updates and inputs.

      Like

          1. This is likely closer to the truth. One of Biddle and Franco has to be #1 and that really doesn’t mean a lot and really doesn’t mean one is really that much better than the other

            Like

  13. Sano is Considered a top 5 prospect in Baseball. I look @ Franco, Same age, with very sim #’s . While a lot less K’s. And Franco is a steller defender @ 3b where Sano will be a LF/1B in a couple years. If Franco was a 1st rd pick(Biddle) or signed out of Latin America for 3million(Sano). It would not be a question that he would be our #1 prospect. Many MLB all-stars out of Latin America are lower Bonus guys. Pujols 60k, Nelson Cruz 25k, Jose Reyes 50k, Fernando Rodney 8k, Hanley Ramirez 25k, Maikel Franco 100k. I can keep going. Draft Status or Bonus should not dictate Prospect Status.

    Like

    1. Lets just compare Franco and Sano on a tools basis.

      Hit:
      Sano – 55
      Franco – 60
      Power:
      Sano – 80
      Franco – 65
      Arm:
      Sano – 80
      Franco – 65
      Glove:
      Sano – 40 (3B), 50 (OF projection)
      Franco – 55
      Speed:
      Sano – 30
      Franco – 20

      Sano is almost a full year younger, has an elite tool (power) that he uses in game action. Franco is a good defender but are way overrating the defense, a bunch of the value comes from a very strong, accurate arm (something Sano has more of). Biddle is less than a year older than Franco (10 months older) has just as many plus tools and is competing (and conquering) a higher level of competition. This has nothing to do with bonus, it has everything to do with raw skills and talent on the field.

      Like

      1. To be more explicit with what Matt is implying here: minor league on field statistics, (BA, HR, OPS, ect.) are not nearly as important as projection of tools when evaluating prospects.

        I would also note that I don’t quite see Franco as a 60 hit tool but that is because I lump patience (or whatever you want to call what leads to his below average walk rate) as well as what I am assuming is Franco’s mediocre LD% based on his slightly below average BABIP throughout his career. Can someone tell me where they get milb LD%? I thought it was milb.com but I don’t see it there.

        Like

      2. Competing and Conquering a higher level of competition? Categorically irrelevant. He was just promoted (I expect Franco will be promoted very soon) and Sano is anything but conquering AA at this point.

        I honestly don’t see an 80 power, looks more like 70 to me. 80 is a generational power hitter, someone who can hit 40+ HR’s several years in a row. I just don’t see that as a reasonably possible outcome. I could however safely say 32-37 during his prime. (whereas Franco to me is 25-30).

        The rest of your post is correct, and it’s why he’s a better prospect. I just don’t see the huge “gap” between the two that others do.

        Sano to me has the possibility of being a perennial all-star in a corner outfield spot, but I also think the same can be said of Franco at 3B. If Franco had to play as a corner outfielder, he wouldn’t profile as an all star. “The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the players position: +10.0 for a catcher, −10 for a first baseman, +3.0 for a second baseman, +2.0 for a third baseman, +7.5 for a shortstop, −7.5 for a left fielder, +2.5 for a center fielder, −7.5 for a right fielder, and −15.0 for a designated hitter.[11] These values are set assuming 1,350 innings played (150 games of 9 innings).[11] A player’s positional adjustment is the sum of the positional adjustment for each position played by the player scaled to the number of games played by the player at that position, normalized to 1,350 innings.[11]”

        For me, one of the biggest knocks on Franco is this is his first year displaying the type of power that he seems to have. Whereas Sano has done it for a year and a half.

        Like

        1. If you read the comment, I referenced Biddle has the one performing at the higher level.

          The industry consensus is that Sano has 80 grade power, it is the best in the minors by far. He hits plenty out and they aren’t close when he does. He projects on the major league level to hit 40+ every year in his prime (there really is not a dissenting voice on this in the prospect community).

          Like

    2. There was a discussion about Franco and Sano over a minorleagueball a couple of days ago and everywhere agreed Sano is a way better prospect because A) he is 9 months younger (a big difference) B) had better numbers C) is now a level higher at a younger age and D) has an elite tool. Now of course point C might not matter much in the next couple days as Franco could get moved up

      Like

    3. I don’t actually see a huge huge difference between those two players (especially when discounting for Sano’s BABIP). Following larry’s methodology for predicting batting average, Sano will have a measurably lower average based purely on the strike out %’s, whereas it is also more likely he has more power and a better walk %. In short I really expect Franco to rise up the prospect rankings if he continues his amazing year.

      Like

  14. Sano is almost a full year younger. But I do agree that players are sometimes profiled based on where they are drafted or signing bonus.

    Like

    1. In fairness, these guys were also ranked largely on last season and this has been a break out year for Franco. When a guy spurts in performance, it takes a while for his rep/ranking to catch up to his improved performance, because people are looking for more confirmation that what they are seeing is real and not simply a hot streak.

      Like

  15. I know this isn’t the appropriate space for this, but there hasn’t been a general discussion option in awhile. So brainstorming on how to trade Howard . . . who says no in this trade?

    Phillies get:
    – Josh Beckett, Zach Lee, and Joc Pederson from the Dodgers
    – Jonathan Schoop from the Orioles

    Orioles get:
    – Ryan Howard from Phillies
    – Lots of Cash from the Dodgers (at least half of Howard’s contract?)

    Dodgers get:
    – Cliff Lee

    My rationale:

    Orioles: They need a DH (currently it’s Danny Valencia) and Schoop is more of a B prospect. Howard at a discount is a huge upgrade over Valencia and if breaks down completely in 2 years, they aren’t paying that much.

    Phillies: Unload Howard’s contract. Get 1 really good prospect and 2 good ones in return. Beckett is at least a semi usable arm and only signed through 2014.

    Dodgers: Get Cliff Lee. They’ve been willing to take on money and getting rid of Beckett’s contract semi offsets Lee’s and allows them to take on part of Howard’s contract. I’d be willing to send them a Sebastian Valle or a Kyle Simon type player as well.

    As Michael Scott would say: It’s a win, win, win situation.

    Like

    1. Interesting trade. I think the Dodgers are a strong possibility for a no there. They’re giving up two of their top prospects and taking on all of Cliff Lee’s money and shelling out half the money for Howard? That’s a steep price. Orioles might say no too if they don’t think Howard is going to get much better.

      Like

    2. I really believe you take any thing in return for howard,if we get a team to take half his contract, and get a low a prospect and a relief pitcher lets do it,

      Like

  16. Williamsport opener tonight. Pullin is listed as an OF on the roster. I thought he was getting reps at 2nd now?

    Like

Comments are closed.