239 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-10-2013”

1. This team is really ludicrous in that its composed of a bunch of breaking down veterans. All of them have had great years in the past, but none of them are great anymore, and some are downright bad. Michael Young, for instance, is a bad player right now, and I think it’s time to give Kevin Frandsen some consideration–he can at least hit the ball out of the infield. Howard is bad right now. Rollins is mediocre. Utley was good–while he was healthy, which is a rarity these days. We need more young impact players like Dom Brown. We won the World Series with three young impact position players–Utley, Howard, and Rollins. We need to find guys to team up with Brown, and this could come via a trade–our best assets right now are Lee, Pap, and Utley (assuming he plays well when he gets back.) By the way, Dom is getting no love in the ASG voting. People here need to step up!
   Also, RAJ’s moves this year have been horrific. Revere has one tool–speed–and he doesn’t seem to be smart enough on he basepaths to be a prolific basestealer, nor is he hitting enough. You can’t steal first, as they say. He’s not an impact player and never will be–the best he can be is a pest-type player, but right now his lack of power, his 6 RBI’s and his 20-some runs (as well as his unacceptable defensive miscues) make him one of the worst everyday players in baseball. Adams has been bad. In the meantime, Josh Lindblom is now in the Rangers’s starting rotation! Delmon Young runs in the outfield like someone in the stands would. He’ll hit a homerun now and then, and maybe he’ll get hot, but he’s not someone you want to build around.

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   1. They should put this paragraph in the 2013 season highlight DVD.

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   2. Well said Dan! I am afraid we are stuck with MYoung because nobody will trade for him and the Phillies out of respect for his career will allow him to play. DYoung will be gone at sometime but Ruf has really frustrated me by not seizing the opportunity. Pap is the only one I would trade. Starting pitching will always keep us competitive and I like Lee to much to let him go. I am all right with Utley and Rollins finishing out their careers here with diminished spots in the lineup (Utley second and Rollins seventh). I see Galvis as being comparable to Polanco as a young player by being a super sub and then earning a starting position in his prime. I can take Ruiz and Kratz for a couple more years until one of the young guys is ready. Basically we need a real good third baseman and left fielder to join Brown in the middle of the lineup. If they go with Ashee then we need a real gooc offensive center fielder. We are stuck with Howard so I move him down to sixth in the order. Sadly the outlook is bleak for the near future.

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      1. After reading Eric Longenhagen talk about Ruff…I am just about giving up on him. Surprisingly, Longenhagen isn’t concerned about his fielding but is average hitting. He turns 27 next month. I hate to see it..but I think Ruff really missed his only opportunity this spring. Still great story for 2012.

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         1. As hot as I was for Ruf, I’ve really cooled on him. The sudden disappearance of power is astounding.

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            1. He does have 17 doubles I think, doesn’t he?

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               1. Sure, but doubles power is not the same thing as HR power. He’ll go from 40 HR’s in a season to <10… that has to be at least a little concerning no?

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   3. Agree with just about everything but playing Frandsen. In the offseason I was all for letting Frandsen have the job rather than trading for Young, but at this point they might as well play him and see if he can drive up his trade value. He’s hot over his last 4 games (as hot as he can get anyway, with a bunch of singles and a walk). If he gets his average and OBP up again maybe they can get a little something for him.

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      1. He has good character and respect throughout baseball, I’m very confident another team will make the same mistake the Phils did in being willing to trade for him, although they won’t be as dumb as to give up two pitchers to get him.

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   4. Yes well said. I really expected a mediocre transition year like almost everyone. It did not make sense to make major long term moves for veterans. Pretty much with nuances things have gone the way I expected. It was always going to be a hope all the questions or some of the questions pan out year.

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   5. Dan, stay away from your local bridge! With all the injuries the Phillies are only 2 games under .500 which is actually pretty good. If there is no life with Ruiz, Utley and Zambrano coming back then you will see trades.

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      1. I really don’t want to poop on your parade but if you are hitching your wagon to Ruiz, Utley, and Zambrano as the keys to a playoff run then you will be sadly disappointed. Unless of course you have a time machine and can go back several years in which case playoffs here we come!!

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         1. I am hitching my wagon to them until mid July then the wheels will come off. The Phillies will probably not get much trade value for anyone until the deadline is near. However, if some team can blow them away with MLB or near MLB prospects then they should start the demolition process.

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   6. Dan, Lindblom is not in Texas’s rotation he just making a spot start tonight.

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2. Austin Wright finally has a good start today (5.1 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 7 Ks) – any velocity reports from those who are there? Maybe he’s finally just healthy again.

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   1. Lets hope so

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   2. He hasn’t been healthy. That is a very encouraging start.

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3. Sad goings-on by the once feared lineup when Brown is the ONLY guy worth watching in the lineup. Posters have called for the “blowing up” of this group and I’ve joined them because there is little to see that’s promising except more of the same.

   J-Roll knows and he mentioned that blowing the team up could happen soon as RAJ poo-pooed that claim. BUT, unless RAJ suddenly has gone wacko, that NECESSITY is staring him right in the face.

   Question: could the impending new TV contract give RAJ hesitation in doing what now appears to be necessary for the team’s immediate and long term future? Lots of $$$s at stake. IMO, reality strikes!

   Must get a viable group of superior prospects…namely a right handed right fielder and a couple of superior pitchers prospects…and the only way this can be done is to trade the ONLY piece, Lee, who could bring that kind of return.

   3rd base? Asche is in line to ascend to fill it for ’14. CF?, Revere has been overvalued by the FO…but no replacement is close so going with Revere is reasonable IF he is flanked by Brown and that other RFer mentioned above. Pitching? Only Biddle could give something good via the pharm system by ’14 mid-season. Nobody else seems close. Utley? Finished; who would re-sign him to play 2nd base knowing that he is so injury vulnerable? to play As a DH, he could extend his career…if he doesn’t hang ’em up at the end of this season. Hernandez MUST play and work out his refinements. Re-sign Ruiz despite his post PED injury problems; steroids do that to the body, but he is needed since no other catcher is available(sorry, Joseph) and Ruiz is good to guide newbie pitchers through a learning process.

   Doc is gone. Fond memories of an all-star pitcher but now “impossible” to re-sign based on his age, small possibility that he could ever be effective on the mound…and certainly not worth the risk at these prices or even at a “bargain price.”

   J-Roll could also be gone over the winter…with Galvis moving in…maybe not close to j-Roll’s offense but an excellent SS fielding teaming with Hernandez to DEVELOP a decent keystone combo.

   Yes, the big club will tease us from time to time with a few victories but the sub-floor is rotted and needs to be replaced. For the sake of the future, close and far, the blow-up MUST be done. Hope RAJ doesn’t settle for crap which he may have done with Joseph!!??

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   1. Ruiz wasn’t suspended for Steriods, it was for the stimlant Adderall, a ADD medication.

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      1. The second time he was caught was for Adderall, they did not release what the substance was for the first offense.

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         1. First time steroid offenders get a 50 game suspension. If the first positive test was PEDs, we all would have known about it.

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         2. You only get suspended the second time you test positive for Adderall without a prescription so the first offense was also Adderall

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   2. It would make sense to sign Utley to a reasonable two-year deal knowing Hernandez is ready to step in if he gets hurt. He brings a work ethic and knowledge of the game (as well as an above-average bat when healthy) that is a good influence in this team. Case in point: Dom Brown mentioned in an article the other day that when he’s facing a pitcher the first time, he doesn’t go to video … he goes and asks Utley.

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      1. Chase is a great person and was a great player. I have been one of his biggest fans and it saddens me he won’t retire here unless he retires after this year. He makes absolutely no sense at all for us.

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         1. Why does he make no sense? He ranks among the top 8 2B in OPS with a minimum of 170 plate appearances. He’s already put up 1.5 fWAR this season. He is all of the other things you mentioned above, plus a great leader in a clubhouse that seems to be more and more desperately in need of leadership. Yes, he is injury prone, but that’s why you have Hernandez and Galvis ready to step in and play when he’s not available. Assuming some other team doesn’t swoop in and give him a four year deal, the question to me is, why wouldn’t you bring Utley back?

            I know it’s different sports, but I think back to when Brian Dawkins lost a step and was basically shown the door so the Eagles could get faster in the secondary. Dawk went to Denver on the cheap and solidified a strong D, and the Eagles secondary has never recovered. There’s something to be said for taking character into account with certain players.

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            1. Bringing back Utley on a 2 or 3 year deal is really a no brainer IMO.

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   3. RAJ has tickets to sell before the trading deadline and owners who are going to require a lot of hand-holding to trade their ‘stars’. RAJ is obviously laying the PR groundwork to make some trades at the deadline.

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4. How can it possibly hurt to bring up Ruf and ditch D. Young, a two way horrendous player.

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   1. From the ridiculous and the sublime: bring up Carlos Z..pitch him every fifth day and let him start in the field and bat the other four.

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5. This team needs to shed some dead weight. Get rid of Delmon, start Mayberry and bring up Castro to back him up.

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   1. I’m not opposed to that. See how Castro handles a bench role, as it’s his most likely career option anyway.

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6. Where is Sal Fasano when you need him

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   1. Porn industry?

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   2. He coaches Washington’s double A team.

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      1. No he doesnt. Matt Lecroy coaches the senators

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         1. My bad, roving catcher’s coach for Toronto.

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7. Kelly Dugan on M.Franco: “I have never seen anybody as good with the glove,” said Clearwater outfielder Kelly Dugan. “He handles everything and has the arm to put everybody away.”

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   1. impressive comments. Franco is true break-out player offensively & defensively. In 2012 he committed 16 errors at Lakewood. In Clearwater, he has only 1 error so far.

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      1. Three … he had two the other day. Agreed on everything you said, however. He and Biddle are tied in my mind for the system’s top prospects.

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         1. You can make a good argument he’s the most valuable guy in the system considering the attrition rate for young pitchers.

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8. Some media members like to defend RAJ and point to injuries and an aging core, and I get all of that, but the fact of the matter is when you go line by line of the acquisitions that he made, it is not good.

   Nix – has not been good, why 2 years?
   Revere – has not been good and looks very limited in many areas.
   M Young – no range, no power, not even hitting for a high average or OBP
   Lannan – injured
   Adams – injured, velocity down, has been inconsistent
   Durbin – gone
   Qualls – gone
   Horst – mediocre at best
   Trades made last year – Lino not even playing, Simon not having a great year, Martin can’t throw strikes, Joseph was not playing well, then injured, Schierholtz and Lindblom gone, Rosin has been the lone bright spot
   3 minor leaguers from Lee trade – not good at all
   Gload – not good
   Schneider – was not good

   Outside of Halladay, Lee, and Papelbon, he has not made good acquisitions at all, and let’s face it, anyone would have made the Halladay deal and the Lee deal. And even though Papelbon has been great, it is insane to pay a closer that much for that many years.

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   1. Ruben says he is not ‘blowing it up’, but going to retool like Boston did. Also wishes some of the vets would listen to hitting coachs Wally Joyner and Steve Henderson, like Dom Brown did. Now what vets could he possibly be talking about!

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   2. In fairness, he did a nice job of excluding Brown from the Lee and Halladay deals. He also signed Ruiz and Kendrick to very team-friendly deals. I hated the Kendrick extension at the time, but it’s turned out really well. But yeah, that’s pretty much it.

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   3. I think what they need to most address is the scouting and minor league system. Free agents and the Ross Gloads of the world aren’t what this team need to worry about for a while. We need to continue working on the young core and bite the bullet.

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9. Hey guys, was following your comments here. Did RJA come right out and say that some of the vets were ignoring the hitting coaches? I’ve wondered about this issue for some time, be it Joyner and Hendu, Gross, Uncle Milt, etc… Do these guys just not listen? How did Howard go from a .300 hitter with excellent power to the player he is today, which is Dave Kingman minus the power.
   I wonder about J-Roll, he was never terribly consistent but he’s turned into a popup machine. We know he has a big ego. Is he just unwilling to listen to coaches?
   Just things I think about when I see guys going for years without making ANY adjustments. Maybe the vets could learn something from Dom.

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   1. There have been rumors for years that Howard just refuses to listen to the Phillies hitting coaches.

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      1. He obviously doesn’t listen to anyone. His fall from being an elite hitter has been mind boggling. I’ve never seen a hitter implode like he has. He looks like he just doesn’t have a clue!

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   2. “Domonic has allowed guys to work with him — Steve Henderson, Wally Joyner, Chase [Utley],” Amaro said. “I wish some of our veterans would take advice like that. It doesn’t happen all the time. They get locked into their way of doing things. They know what they need to do to have success, but sometimes a new voice helps.”

      To me the scariest quote is htis one: “It’s a good sign that we’ve gotten less than typical production from some of our major players and we are still where we are,” he said.
      I am not sure what he means by “typical production” here. He seems oblivious to the aging curve.

      http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/amaro-talks-struggles-lee-zambrano-and-others

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      1. Amaro’s job is on the line. I dont see the organization allowing him to do a rebuild and he knows it.

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         1. I say that meaning if they do need to do a rebuild, Amaro will be gone.

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            1. Does not Amaro deserve a chance for the rebuild and have you thought the owners(Montgomery are the problem)? Amaro did not want to resign Rollins but Dave Montgomery wanted it done along with the Lee trade to Seattle. Gillick is still around to help out but he also left Baltimore’s and Seattle’s farm system bare.

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               1. The Rollins contract isnt an albatross like the one he gave our first baseman. I realize they wanted to trade Lee at that point. Still Amaro got nothing in return. At that point everyone knew Aumont wasnt a starter. Amaro took him as a centerpiece saying he was a starter. He was wrong massively. The Pence trade was ludicrous. The Ibanez contract was ridiculous. Trying to build a team this year with Michael Young and Delmon Young? I find it hard to believe a team with such highly touted business owners are going to support Amaro’s ignorance for advanced statistics much longer.

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               2. The Young brothers were signed as stopgaps to give Asche and Ruf time to get ready (or, in the case of RF, to see if someone better comes along in FA next season). They were both low risk deals that allow the team to get younger (by shedding two Youngs!) in the long-term.

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               3. Well that is certainly how we, and most reasonable baeball people, viewed those two signings. and if signed/obtianed, for that purpsoe, they weren’t bad eals. But based on the comments from the organization at the time, I think they, incorrectly IMO, expected much more.

                  Barring a massive downturn in production, Asche is certainly your 3B next year. No clue what they do in RF….maybe take a run at Choo?

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               4. Unfortunately Choo is going to be getting big bucks this offseason especially coming off of a career year. All that being said I still think he would be a worthwhile overpay for the Phillies (unlike Upton, Hamilton, or Bourn). Choo is still fairly young and offers more OBP and SLG than Bourne, and would be the quality leadoff man the Phillies need.

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               5. You are right about Choo requiring an overpay. He’s going to be in high demand in a weak FA class.

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               6. I think they tried to catch lightning in a bottle with each. Otherwise why would they not have contracts past this season?

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               7. I like Choo a little bit, but he’s another high-price 30+ year old guy who can’t hit lefties. Probably not a good fit for this team.

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               8. He’s certainly struggling against LH this season but career .336 OBP against LHs isn’t bad. and 30 years old is about standard for a guy hitting UFA for the first time.

                  Boras client, week FA class, career year (arguably), etc are far bigger concerns for me.

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               9. Your right, his career numbers are better, it just seems like these splits seem to get worse as players age. I think we are making the same point in the end, he’s just not a great fit for where this team is at now.

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               10. Bob, have to disagree the only mistakes was the third year on Ibanez(he had two good years and almost was the hero in 2011) and the Ryan Howard contract(terrible for a now platoon player or DH). Mike Honcho did a nice job describing the two Young signings.

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10. I’ve heard the same Joe, very disappointing. You look at the way a guy like Chris Davis has altered his approach with the O’s. There was a good article on it on yahoo sports I believe, and you have to wonder what Howard could do if he was patient with breaking balls and started hitting to all fields again.

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    1. Ortiz changed and told Howard he must change. Lets see what happens.

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    2. Unfortunately, Howard’s problems are far more serious than being patient with breaking balls. He can no longer catch up to heavy heat ….even when he guessed right.

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       1. That was me

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       2. Personally, I think Howard has torn miniscus. Test have been inconclusive so far but I think its apparent that he is not using his lower half and thats why he is appearing so late with significant drop in power. I think we are quickly approaching a point of shutting Howard down (for surgery) and make painful trade decisions. Its aweful because there is just something about turning tv on during summer and watching the phillies.

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          1. ‘there is just something about turning tv on during summer and watching the phillies.’…now its turning the channel after the 4th inning, since they trail by four anymore.

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11. Thanks MDS for the quotes. I agree with you, those are scary comments on several levels.

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12. So according to Amaro dumping 3 big money past all stars like Beckett, Crawford, and A-Gon is not blowing a team up. Seriously Rube, how the hell did you get into Stanford???? It is obvious whole sale changes are needed for this club starting in the front office and ending at the lineup card.

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    1. Boston didn’t trade Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, etc. They kept their core in tact. They just got rid of the dead weight. That’s what Ruben means.

       They need to decide who’s worth keeping and who’s worth trading, not just trading everyone just because.

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13. Has nobody else noticed Rupp’s at AAA now?

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    1. Expected move. Kratz to DL.

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    2. I was going to mention it in tomorrow’s daily write-up, assuming he gets into the game at AAA today, (and assuming they play one with bad weather looming).

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14. Gillies was pulled today due to lack of hustle, according to Anthony Burkhart on Twitter. Awesome.

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    1. His Phillie days are probably numbered now. Patience has worn thin.

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    2. I almost feel like he sabotages himself. Maybe success frightens him.

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       1. Hes incredibly immature.

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    3. I’ve generally been a Gillies supporter but was at the Reading game on Sunday. In his 3rd at-bat took a 3-1 pitch that he thought was border-line and started to flip his bat when the umpire called a strike (I was sitting behind the 1st base dugout so couldn’t see the location). After staring back at the umpire he then took the 3-2 pitch which was a bit low. When the umpire correctly called it a ball, Gillies dropped the bat on the plate, took a look at the umpire, and headed to first.

       Yes, it’s just a single observation but he displays bad body language and appears to have a chip on his shoulder fits the pattern of previous issues..

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15. I re-do my Top 30 every couple of months, and I don’t ever remember it being this hard to put together the 15-30 slots. I removed Pettibone, Aumont and De Fratus in anticipation of them exuasting their eligibility. I removed 8 more players from my pre-season top 30, due to bad performance or no performance: Collier, Gillies, Austin Wright, L Greene, Gabriel Lino, B Colvin, Kenny Giles and Mitchell Walding.
    I have 3 spots left. Of those 8, which 3 are still worthy of the top 30?

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    1. I don’t think I’d bump Kenny Giles from my top 30 yet, and before the recent slump I think Gillies new swing showed enough life to still belong there as well.

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    2. The first guy I would say is Wright. He’s only had 7 starts and he’s dealt with injury. I don’t think it’s enough to drop him from the top 30 yet. Naming two more guys is tough but I would say Lino, because he still has whatever tools he had last year, just turned 20 and hasn’t done anything on the field to lose status. And, I guess, Colvin. Just because.

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16. My goto for info on the Phils has been philly.com — as I’m sure it is for many of you — but boy, 98% of the commenters know their stuff on here (whether talking big club or farm teams) vs 20% at philly.com. It’s great to come here. And I believe in the overwhelming consensus here. The last three losses (plus mounting injuries) have finally convinced me this club will do no better than maybe three games over .500 – and more likely five or more under.

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    1. Trust me they still come in here.

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17. Larry Greene, Brody Colvin, Tyson Gillies…guys with raw something or other. Package them altogether in a trade to a contender with someone(s) on the big club in July when the big club still hovers around .500.

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    1. And the point of that would be?

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    2. You just know the other team is going to hold out until RAJ throws in Anthony Hewitt.

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       1. In all honesty, a guy like Hewitt is great eyewash in a trade. “We got their former #1 pick!”. I recall we said something like that when we dumped Abreu/Lidle for some unwashed tube socks.

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18. Like most fans I started the season with my heart holding high hopes and my head telling me it was over for this group. Looks like the head was right. Even though he has struggled I’d like to see them give Ruf a try at either left or first (when Howard inevitably goes on DL). To get any quality prospects either Lee, Papelbon or both probably have to be on the market. I’d hate to see Lee go but he is their most valuable trading chip. If they make any major moves they have to get near major league ready players in return – no more single A maybes. Is the current management up to this?..It’s been fun while it lasted!

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19. Franco and Dugan with homers tonight, Altherr hit one yesterday. All these guys need to go to Reading and Gillies can go to Clearwater to learn how to be a better baseball player and a more mature person.

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    1. Dugan should, and probably will, be in reading very soon due to his ae and lack of orner OF propects in the upper minors. He’s hit everywhere when he’s benn healthy and of not for the injuries he’s have been in reading to start the season, if not even last year.

       No reason to rush Franco at his age. I wouldn’t mind to see him play most of the year in CLW with maybe a late call up to REA. There is incentive to promote Atherr since it is his 5th year in the system, but I woul dfirst like to see him bring the KOs under control.

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       1. First sentence should read: “Dugan should, and probably will, be in reading very soon due to his age and lack of corner OF propects in the upper minors.”

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          1. mds – What do you think Dugan’s ceiling is?

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             1. Jury is still out for me a little a bit but I really like what I see from him.

                1) pretty good discipline at the plate;
                2) has hit whenever he’s been healthy; and
                3) by all accounts is a very hard worker and a real student of hitting.

                As is the case with all corner outfielders, the question is whether he will hit with enough power to be an every day player. I’d also like to see the K rate (though reasonable) come down a little.

                If he can hit with a little more power (something he has shown towards to end of last season and so far this season) and the defense can be a little above average I see him as a 4th OF/platoon candidate.

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                1. Seems to be a recurring theme down on the farm. Many of these guys profile as 4/5 OFs and not starters. I would really like to see one of the guys in Clearwater become a MLB starter.

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                2. I hear ya…but power usually develops later and it wouldn’t shock me to see a player like dugan go to reading and hit 20+ HRs over a full season. It’s a tough tool to proedict IMO.

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             2. Just to toss in my two cents, I think Dugan’s ceiling is similar to that of Trot Nixon. Nixon was a solid RF who would hit .275-.280, 20 HRs, and an OPS around .825 in any given year. In his prime he was an everyday player, but he spent a good portion of his career in a quasi platoon situation where he was splitting time but still getting 500 ABs a season.

                Now I am not saying my expectation is that he does turn into Trot Nixon, Nixon after all had a little more pedigree in the minors, but I think that is his ceiling. More realistically he is probably a 4th outfielder.

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20. At some point one would think they would learn to judge what is going on in the heads of prospects. The Lee trade can now be listed with the other HOF blunders.

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21. Now if you were the GM of this Phillies team…and with Franco on the heals of Asche….would you or would you not, give Asche a few innings in a few games, say, in LF at LHV. Or maybe even 2nd base again…just for sh_ts and grins. Just saying for long-term strategic planning.

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    1. Nope. Asche will never hit enough to play LF. Keep him at 3B. Franco is at the bare minimum 2 years away from the bigs possibly even 3. Keep Asche at third until Franco is kicking him off third.

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       1. I wouldn’t move him yet either but are we really going to keep acting like everyone in today’s game is a world class hitter? .770-.800 OPS wouldn’t be hitting enough for an OF? I”m not saying that’s what he’ll hit but I think that is a reasonable ceiling for him in his prime. I don’t really have any reason to worry about him in the OF other than he hasn’t played it before. He seems like a guy who would work hard at playing it and he has enough athleticism and speed to play it at least average, I would think.

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          1. I’m not saying he wouldn’t play the position well. My personal feelings are that your LF should be the worst fielder on the field (Obviously the Phillies have separate ideas as Donut Young is playing RF, but I digress). If Asche is an average fielder at third, there’s no reason to put him in the worst defensive position on the field. Maybe he can move to second base first. Maybe he can be a super sub in the mold of a Ryan Theriot. I think LF is the last place you try and put him because his defensive value is higher at other positions.

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             1. I would retry him at 2nd base first too before LF. My objection is the idea that Asche would never hit enough to be a LFer. If we take your premise that LFers are in general the worst fielders than he should be able to supply above average defensive value for the position and about an average bat.

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                1. That’s fair. I would rather see big boppers on the corners than slick fielders with some pop. If my LF and RF are slugging homers, I really don’t care what they do in the field unless they can’t catch anything.

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                2. Being LH helps Asche. If he eventually could handle the occassional game at 2B or the OF you could find a lot of ABs for him even if Franco becomes the man at 3B

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                3. I prefer that too. It’s just the slugging OFer is becoming rarer. The average OPS for a LFer is now around .752 for the last 3 years and for a RFer it’s .776. League wide hitting is currently on a downward trend so we have to start readjusting our expectations when trying to build teams imo.

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                4. That’s a good point.

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    2. I would eventually, but not yet (not sure if they moved him form 2B becuase they knew a 3B would be needed in the short term or if he didn’t have the tange for 2B). He is just supposedly coming into his own at 3B so i would let him try to master that position first considering he will start at 3B next year.

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22. unreal. move asche who hasnt even make the phillies, and needs all the games he can at third to a new position , because a, a ball player might be coming up in three years. Brillant.

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    1. How about instead of criticizing someone else’s opinion, you offer your solution.

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       1. I think his solution is that you leave Asche at 3rd for now. He stays at third until he is forced off the position by an impending promotion.

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          1. The other point is that Asche loses significant value at any other position (except second base which he apparently can’t handle. Possibly to the point that he isn’t a major league regular – IMO probably, but that isn’t even the point. If Asche has a nice rookie year next year, and Franco is ready in 2014, then Asche is going to have a ton of trade value. You won’t recover that value by switching him to a corner OF spot (even if you think he would be decent in such a role).

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             1. I have to agree with you Larry. You look around the league and there are a number of young players up and contributing: Puig, Garcia, Ozuna. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Franco could be up at some point 2014.

                If they could locate the equivalent of Brown from the Right Side to play RF they might be onto something. Asche is a piece that doesn’t seem to fit but could land you what you need at another position.

                I’d like to flip Papelbon to the Tigers for Avi Garcia.

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                1. Perhpas Leland would give up Castellanos for Paps in order to get the ring.

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                2. Jose Valverde just blew another game today wasting a great effort by Justin Verlander. As long as Detroit keeps Valverde around they are very vunerable after their starting five. Papelbon’s value could be very high with the Tiger’s owner desire to win a World Series.

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          2. But there was no cause for rudeness in the response (not yours or Riggs’; anons

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          3. I think part of the problem, not just with Asche (though I do think he should get the third base job next season), but with other Philies’ prospects, over and above the fact that many people (understandably) over value our prospects, is to make the following invalid argument:

             (1) Player X has the upside of a solid major league regular;
             (2) A solid major league regular has value; therefore
             (3) Player X deserves a shot as a major league regular.

             Number one may or may not be true in a given case, 2 is true, but 3 doesn’t necessarily follow from one and two. There will be times of positional scarcity when you’re going to give a shot to players with the upside of average position regulars, but if you do so routinely you’re not going to compete. Generally speaking, you give shots to prospects with the upside of above average regulars or better.

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    2. Anon, like the poster mentioned earlier. long-term strategic thinking on Asche. Something evidently you find it difficult comprehending.

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23. We could have used this guy in RF, but Delmon can still catch fire.
    ‘Nate Schierholtz…… made his 39th start of the season Saturday at Wrigley Field, entered play yesterday hitting .288 with an .834 OPS’.

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24. I have now officially given up on this crew of veterans in the twilight of their careers. This Phillies team will not win this year. I will not be seduced by another three game winning streak. It is time to start over.

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    1. You are not alone. This also makes me wonder why people are so adverse to blowing it up. One argument is that the Phillies need to worry about a new t.v. deal but this team is going to do just as much damage to the popularity of the product as a 65 win team will. At least a 65 win team with young guys might give people hope for the future, whether it be through the guys actually playing or the chance for high draft picks. This team is obviously more than 1 or 2 guys from competing again and the current guys are only going to get worse shortly so without hope t.v. execs will be smart enough to see this is not a franchise worthy of a large t.v. deal. I can see how showing people a willingness to spend might help increase the t.v. deal but it is obvious if they do blow it up it wont be because of cheapness, but rather to rebuild the product to a championship level again. A good franchise can sell that idea to get the big t.v. deal. Also, free agency no longer has superstars so it is only good for adding those last little pieces to put a team over the top. Free agents of recent past show Philly is a good destination but this team needs too much younger talent which is no longer available on the open market. Personally, i would rather a quick death and rebuild as apposed to this slow drawn out hanging on by a thread until we finally hit the crapper and then start to rebuild death.

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    2. It’s time Dan. As Phans we look to identify with the teams we root for, perhaps even equally so to our demand for victories. This group of vets brought a winning era of baseball to a city starved for a team to cheer for. Three years ago had you asked 10 Phans who their favorite Phillie was, you very well may have gotten 10 different answers. Ask that same question today and you might get some thought-filled looks as folks ponder the question. This team has become uninteresting and they certainly have lost any semblance of an identity.

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       1. I should add that ‘it’s time’ to move on from anyone not named Hamels or Lee. Lee could be moved if he can be grouped with Howard but that seems unlikely to happen. Howard is really going to be a big problem for us. This is going to get worse,,, much worse. Three more years ‘after’ this season . . . .

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          1. Grouping Howard with Lee would be terrible. You group Lee and Howard and you get no prospects because you’re making someone eat the contract. If you’re going to trade Lee, keep him on his own and let him fetch the best set of prospects as possible so that the rebuild can happen sooner if that’s what your goal is. Howard’s contract isn’t going to stop the Front Office from blowing the team up. If they are going to blow the team up it’s not like they would need the extra dollars to spend in free agency. Young players with star potential would be much more valuable than cap space

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             1. My preference is to keep both Hamels and Lee. I’ve contended all along that those two alone give you as good a chance as any team to win a playoff series. To be clear though, a Howard-Lee deal is a 1:10,000 type scenario. Just too much money owed there. But if you’re going to talk terrible deals, trading Lee for prospects is the worst possible scenario. Small market move there

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                1. I don’t want to trade Lee either. I just think that the cap space gained from unloading Howard is not worth forgoing a prospect haul for lee that would likely net at least 1 top 50 prospect and 2 top 100s or close. Cap space doesn’t do us any good imo because we’re not going to be able to spend ourselves into relevancy if our premise is we don’t have the core necessary to win. And we don’t have guys ready to step in from the upper minors to create a new one yet. So if we’re trading Lee I prefer to see a prospect haul instead of a salary dump.

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                2. The team will be nowhere near the luxury tax threshold for the length of the Howard deal. His salary is now a non-issue.

                   If you trade Lee, you HAVE to get back a top 50 in baseball prospect. Giving him away just to get rid of Howard would be insane (and, at the same time, you won’t get many takers; it is a lose/lose proposition because most of the teams who would do it from a competitive standpoint have more serious payroll limitations than the Phillies currently do).

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                3. Moot discussion because even I admitted it would never happen. Grouping Lee and Howard would not be about money though – it’s about getting Howard off the field

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                4. Obviously I am agreeing with you; I meant to respond to the comment that you were responding to.

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25. Appears as though Ian Stewart will be waived if not traded first as both parties are anxious to severe ties. Gillies for Ian?

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    1. He’s a guy who I had my eye on during the off season, but I’m inclined to think that his performance in AAA this season may have placed the final nail in his career’s coffin.

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26. Sigh, once again with the “blowing it up” nonsense. We’ve been through this before, and it isn’t an argument, it is an aesthetic. We finally had a nice back and forth about it a couple weeks ago, and, while it was civil, the “blow it up” crowd really didn’t have much to say beyond unrealistic expectations about trade value. I won’t repeat at length the reasons why they are wrong (briefly, (1) low trade value of the veterans, (2) lack of good prospects in the upper minors, (3) horrible FA market, and (4) Losing 80 rather than 100 games has long term negative effects in terms of (a) the team’s long term financial health (and hence payroll) and (b) development of younger players.

    That said, where are we in terms of the veterans?

    (1) Should and will be gone – the two Youngs and (sadly) Halladay).

    (2) Should PROBABLY be back – the probably mainly to cover the unlikely possibility that someone overwhelms us with an offer: Utley (still arguably the team’s best position player. Hernandez is okay at best, and the recent injury if anything increases the chance of a return by lowering his likely market value); Lee (unless we’re overwhelmed), Rollins (closer call that Utley, but currently one of three position regulars on the team playing well, still an above average shortstop); Papelbon (also a somewhat close call; I’m assuming his trade value is not that high).

    (3) Not important to retain, BUT … (1) Howard – he’s done. In a perfect world he would retire. But the team is stuck with him. (2) Ruiz – the only reasons he’s not on the “should and will be gone” list is (a) lack of alternatives, and (b) the fact that, between the suspension and the injury, he should come really cheap. OTOH, 35 year old catchers don’t have the best track record of success.

    The bottom line is that the team needs the next group of potential future stars, and getting rid of the veterans does not advance that goal (except MAYBE Lee).

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    1. I don’t think the Phillies can ‘look’ to trade anyone. Sit back and let the phone ring.

       As far as the middle infield is concerned, I think Galvis has shown enough to warrant a full-time gig. We don’t need to be creative on his behalf, but his presence makes me somewhat more willing to part with Rollins or Utley in the right deal. Though a healthy Utley would also receive a qualifying offer if he wasn’t traded

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       1. Fair enough, but the way some people up thread are talking, they pretty much want to blow it up regardless of return (or they just assume that putting these guys on the market is going to get us a flood off great offers). Not you in either case.

          As for Galvis, I like him too. Too much of downgrade, especially offensively, to replace Utley. It’s closer with Rollins. OTOH, with third base a little bit of a question mark (I like Asche but he is far from a sure thing) and with two middle infielders in their mid 30s, one with health issues, one more year of Galvis more or less in his current role doesn’t strike me as such a bad thing. It’s a shame that our best position prospect at the moment (if you can still call Galvis a prospect) is a middle infielder, when catcher/first base/right field are the team’s biggest holes.

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    2. i don’t know why you think Papelbon’s trade value isn’t that high. there always seems to be a high profile team in contention at the deadline that is desperate for a closer. Especially with one of the more old school managers. You think Detroit wouldn’t love a guy like Papelbon? I think they would and knowing that owner i think if they are set on it we could get something decent for him. plus a closer is a luxury, so to me papelbon is the best value to be traded.

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       1. I posted this on the other post (by accident), but Pap’s + 10-20 million for Castellanos… I’d do it in a heart beat.

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       2. I could be wrong about him …

          That said,define decent. Can they get a top 50 prospect, or maybe a player in A ball who has top 50 potential? That is, a potential difference maker? I don’t think so. Those are the kind of players the team needs. Someone who, if things break right for them, could be an average regular – well, there is value in those kind of players, but it seems to me that the team has no shortage of those types of prospects.

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          1. Probably not a top 50 guy, but are you telling me you wouldn’t trade papelbon for a martin or joseph level prospect? Because i’m pretty sure we can get at least that and i think that is worth more than 2 more years of an excellent closer on a team with no hope of contending for those 2 years.

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             1. Well … I guess it partly depends on how much you like Joseph. I probably would not do that. As I’ve stated, even out of contention winning matters. And, as much as you can legitimately argue that closers are over rated, you need to have SOMEONE close. Not seeing anyone currently in the organization who is ready to close, and with the bullpen kind of thin … of course, in reality if Papelbon was trtaded Amaro would sign a FA who would cost them a first round pick.

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             2. I’d want more than a Martin or Joseph. Those guys are both at upper levels but almost a year after the trade not ready to step up to majors and both with significant question marks. We got Martin and Joseph plus for Pence and Vic and didn’t send any money along with the player. I value Papelbon above Vic and Pence. Neither of these guys was having a good season when we traded them. Send some money along with Papelbon to cover the rest of his 2013 salary and you can get a top 25 prospect back. Theoretically at least — you need to have a trade partner who needs a closer, has a top-25 prospect, and is willing to trade some future for a shot at WS, and who also can take on the salary in 2014. Depending upon how the races shake out, there may or may not be such a team at the trade deadline. By top-25 prospect, I am not talking about someone in the 10-15 range, but someone in the 20-30 range.

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          2. Mike Adams to the Rangers got the Padres Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin. I don’t think either of them is even top 100 or was top 100 at the time. Didn’t Adams have a year and a half left at that deadline too? So him and Papelbon are pretty similar. Maybe Pap gets you a back end top 100 guy, but that isn’t that great of a haul. I still might pull the trigger on such a deal because I don’t have much regard for the closer position. That said the Phillies bullpen has been less than stellar even with the emergence of DeFratus, and Aumont looks like he’ll never have enough control to contribute.

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             1. They are not that similar. Papelbon is the far superior reliever. He’s expensive, but cover the remainder of this year’s salary and the buyer can finagle his 2014 salary budget to make it work, just as RAJ did with Halladay, and Pence.

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                1. At the time Mike Adams was traded he was the premier reliever on the market. Even above Heath Bell

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                2. He had a 1.13 ERA, .73 WHIP, and 5.44 K/BB ratio that year, with a year and a half on his contract. Sure Mike Adams now isn’t performing that well but at the time of that trade he was mowing guys down. And that was his third straight year of superb performance. Papelbon’s got pretty similar numbers this year. Would Papelbon fetch more than Adams? Probably yes. Would it be significantly more? I don’t think so.

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                3. Papelbon has something that only the most elite relievers in baseball have. Continued success and rock steady consistency. A team trading for Papelbon knows they are getting someone that has proven they can lock down the 9th inning. THAT’S why Mike Adams didn’t get as much as Papelbon would.

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                4. Well when Papelbon brings a top 50 prospect back in a trade I’ll stand corrected. I would love for that to happen I just don’t think he has that kind of value around the league. We’ll see.

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                5. Plus they have Paps for 2/3 years…he is not a RENTAL.

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                6. Neither was Adams. The only thing that Adams didn’t have was the “Closer” title. Everything else fits really. The Rangers were desperate to win the WS.

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                7. I did a little more research that suggests the trade value might be better.

                   In 2010 the Pirates traded Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers for James Mcdonald (#56 for BA in 2009 pre season, went onto pitch with big club in 2009) and Andrew Lambo (#49 for BA in 2009 pre season but fell completely out of top 100 for 2010 rankings after bad year).

                   Also in 2010 the Nats traded Matt Capps to the Twins for Wilson Ramos (#58 for BA 2010 preseason rankings) and Joe Testa.

                   Seems like we could get a top 60 guy for Papelbon if the tigers really want him. I still don’t think they’d give up Castellanos for him though.

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27. I have an open question, why is it more teams don’t use large amounts of cash to “buy” prospects from other teams? If you’re the Phillies right now, and are truly a large market team, and on that basis, the only way out of this “mess” is to either go years in mediocrity, or spend your way out, given how the free agent market is shaping up poorly, why wouldn’t the Phillies throw Paps plus say 15 million to net a top 25 prospect?

    There are plenty of teams out there who are cash strapped and would gladly take that kind of money from a big market team.

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    1. If teams were willing to spend 15 million on Jorge Solder (however you spell his name), who hasn’t even proven himself in state-side ball, wouldn’t it be wiser to toss that kind of money into acquiring someone major league ready who can help your team for the next decade.

       And please don’t take my 15 million as set in stone, maybe it’s 25 million, or 50 million, but it just makes me wonder why this kind of thing isn’t taken advantage of.

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       1. Fear of looking like an idiot if you trade a proven commodity plus eight figures of cash for somebody who doesn’t pan out?
          I don’t know. You’d think there’s a good strategy to take advantage of that somewhere. Kind of like when crappy European soccer teams sell their young players, except you’d have to throw in a player on the buying side for pretenses, I guess.

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          1. Now that i think about it, i’m actually really suprised a savvy team hasn’t taken advantage of revenue disparities in this way… Not that i’m accusing the phillies of being savvy… 😦

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    2. I think this harkens back to the bad old days of baseball, when broke owners did sell their players. If it happened this baldly today, the commissioner would step in. It does happen, with the appropriate eyewash. That’s how an Abreu/Lidle can vanish for pure crap or Lee can be traded for Ramierez, Aumont, and Gillies. Those who scoff at Paps and $15 mil for a top-25 prospect are wrong. I don’t think it would even take $25 mill. Pay all of Pap’s remaining salary for this year and you can do a deal like that. You need a WS-seeking motivated buyer, but things like this can certainly happen.

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    3. Interesting thought but I suspect it doesn’t occur because of a lack of willing trade partners. Hypothetically a team in financial desperation (and led by very poor management) may consider such a deal but I suspect the commissioner’s office would intervene considering the number of competitive-balance provisions in the CBA. It’s difficult to justify those provisions when teams are selling their prospects

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    4. This isn’t directed at you…but more at the Phillies. If they did this I would be really disgusted. Even more than I am now. The Phillies have had multiple opportunities over the years to add top prospects in the draft or LA for between $1.5M and $4M. But they have passed or ignored EVERY SINGLE PROSPECT like this. It isn’t that Phillies didn’t get them all, they got NONE of them.

       Now they find themselves in a desperate situation with an aging roster and very average farm system. So what is the solution? To give up Paps and $15M for a Top 25 prospect?

       They could have had multiple Top 25 prospects during RAJ’s tenure for a fraction of that cost. But they were “saving” money. The Phillies draft spend has been penny wise and pound foolish for years…decades even.

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28. Mr. Tomorrow Jr. here’s a blueprint for you,

    2B Quinn
    SS Crawford
    LF Brown
    3B Franco
    RF Dugan
    CF Altherr
    1B Howard
    C whoever emerges
    LHP Biddle

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    1. The fact that you still have Howard at 1B is reallllyyyy upsetting… (not saying you’re wrong.)

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       1. Trust me I know.

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    2. Since when can Quinn handle 2B?

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       1. The throws are shorter to first base….he should be able to handle that, since the vast majority of his 25 or so errors at Lakewood are throwing.

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          1. It isn’t arm strength, it is the motion of going from fielding to throwing and making it accurate. Second base does solve accuracy issues

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    3. How about
       cf Gose
       2b Asche
       1b Singleton
       lf Brown
       C d’Arnaud
       3b Franco
       Rf Santana
       ss Quinn

       SP Cosart

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29. Discussion topic
    We all can agree the current Phillies are not a playoff caliber team with some serious holes and a lot of aging regulars in steep decline. I keep seeing people argue against blowing it up, but not really discussing how the Phillies will add the impact bats we all can agree are needed. Here is the starting point for my question:
    1. The current team does not have anyone we should trade who will bring back impact players. True
    2. The franchise does not have impact bats in the high minors. Even the lower minors has few really exciting guys who could be a cornerstone. True.
    3. Near future free agency will be lacking impact players. Any player who gets to free agency now will have serious flaws or over inflated price tags and most likely won’t be a real impact player. I believe true. I don’t see the Beltran in his prime happening anymore, now we have to decide if a B.J. is worth our mid first round pick.
    4. Keeping the team around .500 will keep us in the middle of the draft preventing the opportunity for drafting impact players. True.
    Can someone tell me how we are going to acquire these much needed impact bats who are in or before their prime to get back to an elite team?

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    1. Cliff Lee is about the only player who would bring that kind of return I think. Maybe Papelbon could get you one too although they would either have less upside or be further away.

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       1. I agree trading Cliff isn’t ideal, but isn’t it better to trade him now while his value is high? We could not afford to have a repeat of the DOC situation, so I believe it would be the prudent thing to trade Lee and pay some of his remaining contract to get the best possible return.

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          1. It is ideal- 34 year old ;lefty pitching at a Cy young level has no place on a team going nowhere. Plenty of contenders with redundant prospects could use him, It makes more sense than any of Rube’s other deals.

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    2. So the tanking argument … in a way I’m surprised this hasn’t been raised earlier, because it is the only coherent argument for completely tearing the team apart. Coherent but wrong.

       No time for a long response, but the short answer is that the second part of #4 is wrong. This isn’t basketball – you can win with drafting guys in the mid first round and lower. The long term plan is essentially what it always is – draft and develop good players. Add to that being a big market team which can afford a high payroll, which may not mean what it once did, but still means something.

       And that last point is critical. Say you turn into the Marlins for three years. The marginal benefit of three top 5 picks versus three mid first round picks is going to be massively outweighed by the damage that would be done to the team’s long term financial health, in terms of attendance and, most likely, the television deal.

       It’s also pretty clearly not a strategy that the organization – or any big market team – is going to adapt in the real world.

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       1. As it stands currently…the Phillies pick 12th in the first round in 2014.
          Hard to believe Harry!

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          1. Well but there you go. For (say) a 5th pick versus 12th, I would not trash the team. Fans know when a team isn’t even trying to win and they react accordingly.

             It also wouldn’t shock me if the commissioner took action if a big market team visibly tried to lose.

             Again, very much a moot point since it won’t happen.

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             1. i just realized one point which may or may not strengthen my argument, First round picks after 10 are no longer protected so basically if the Phils win enough to stay around 12 we will have to choose between that good high pick and any solid free agent who is out there to spend the big payroll on. The way it seems to set up now is we either draft in the teens OR sign free agents because unless you are completely terrible you can’t do both and this team needs both FA’s and high draft picks. Am i wrong this is a perfect storm type thing that will kill the Phils if they don’t go the blowup root? I do realize we don’t need a full blow up to drop 2-3 more draft spots but the Phils would still need to shed a few wins to aim for 10 or up in the draft.

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       2. The knit i would pick is that this team as is won’t bring in a good t.v. deal. There are no band aids i see that will help this team be either fun to watch, competitive, or both, to gain that big t.v. contract. Obviously i am not in the room watching the negotiations but i just don’t see this team headed down the road it is being that much more valuable than a full rebuild squad. This team could easily lose 90+ this year and a full rebuild maybe loses 10 or so more so are those extra 10 or so losses THAT bad for business? I think t.v. execs are smart enough to see this team for what it is and won’t pay a huge sum for it. I guess time will tell though

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          1. Recent TV deals suggest otherwise. Just look at the Dodgers, Phillies have more TV viewership.

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          2. I’m beginning to wonder if you are just trolling. This is my last comment on this, because (even apart from being wrong) your argument is silly. The team is not going to try to lose games.

             But in terms of the substance, the bottom line is this – you’re not JUST talking about losing (say) 10 more games a year. You’re talking about visibly, explicitly trying to lose. To a much more obvious extent than any team in … well, history; even a joke of a team like the Marlins has the fig leaf of moderate revenues to fall back on. The corrosive and long term effects this would have on attendance, the television contract, and the development of younger players is enormous.

             But the fact that you have to resort to this argument to try to justify a complete tear down of the current team shows just how bankrupt the idea is.

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             1. First off, i am not trolling and i find it insulting to be accused of that. i am just expressing an idea or an opinion which may seem crazy to a far superior human being such as yourself but this will allow you to use your unlimited intelligence to show me where i am wrong.
                Second, There is difference between trying to lose and cutting ties with aging players with little value in the hopes of rebuilding the franchise to a championship level at a quicker pace than the course would currently indicate.
                Third, attendance is already dropping and will continue to even if the Phillies decide on the slower retool method. I will concede that i am not a marketing or ratings analyst so i do not know the full ratings/t.v. contract impact of a rebuild but i think people will understand if management were to rebuild. I feel the rebuild won’t have such a dramatic impact compared to the chinese water torture we will suffer for the next five to seven years but again, i concede i can be wrong on this point. The bottom line is ratings will only be helped by hope and this team has no hope and will not get any big time players who will excite fans and actually help get back into the playoffs with how free agency exists today.

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                1. Let’s see … you’re proposing getting rid of the veterans (for almost nothing as you admit), replacing them with worse players with the goal of getting better draft choices. If that’s not trying to lose, I don’t know what is.

                   What you’re proposing is essentially to pull what the Marlins did, except much worse (because the Phillies don’t have the excuse of lowish revenue). How did THAT go over? No, it’s blind to think that that wouldn’t have a massive, permanent negative effect on the franchise. IMO the team would never recover without an ownership change. Yeah, attendance is down a bit now, but it would crater if they followed your strategy – cut in half or less.

                   And how do you think this is going to effect the development of young players? Sending them the message that winning doesn’t matter? I’m not big on “intangibles,” but creating a winning atmosphere is IMO very important in player development.

                   All this for the tiny, tiny advantage of a slightly better draft position.

                   Sigh, I should have kept my promise of dropping the subject. I thought you might be trolling because you have made sensible posts and didn’t think something this stupid was something you would post seriously.

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                2. Part of my premise is that this team is slowly headed for a cliff, i am proposing we hit the cliff sooner and get it over with. We agree free agency is not what it used to be. we agree our current veterans have little value. How will we rebuild then? A guy like BJ Upton will cost a first round pick in todays game, and even ignoring hindsight, he still is not the cornerstone to build around and that is what the Phillies need. True building blocks, not serviceable OF’s. If we stay at around the middle of the first round, we will then have to choose between drafting at that spot of filling a roster spot with a solid guy free agent. Ok, we grab the solid FA, then what? there are so many holes on the current roster who are mostly on the down slope or already virtually valueless that there is no way to replace them all as quickly as needed with the slow retool. Please tell me where the quick influx of good talent will come from? The Phillies as currently built will just slowly degenerate to an absolute bottom feeder as i already said and granted this is something we won’t actually be able to prove either way and is more of a philosophical argument, but i am open to hearing how the Phillies can use their resources to rebuild into a winner again without the rebuild. We don’t have enough good prospects to get other big names, and no big names are hitting the market like they used to so where is the franchise changing talent coming from?

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30. I don’t know if Boston is interested but a Lee to Boston deal for two of their very higher level prospects (thinking Brentz and either Barnes or Webster.

    Brentz 24 is AAA slugging .500 plays a solid to above avg RF. Webster 23 in AAA 1.081 WHIP 9.9 K/9

    Or you have to think the Tigers would be hot for Papelbon and they have 2 major league ready RH outfielders so for them it is a position of strength to deal from.

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    1. They’re both graded decently but man if it doesn’t look like Webster will flame out due to control problems and Brentz looks ok but totally uninspiring. The Phillies need to be able to get a potential superstar in the Lee deal and I don’t think either of them are it.

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    2. IMO, Papalbon to the Tigers makes a ton of sense

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31. Maybe someone on here can explain to me. Why Charlie Mauel is still the manager. Last night again he goes to bastardo, who has proven he cant handle a lead late in games. He is just a bad manager in general and worse. to a team who needs to find out if herdanez can play ever day at second. if de fratus can handle the pressure of eighth inning and is stutes a late inning option., to continue to use bastardo who has not been good for two years, is totally unacceptable. It is time imo to let Sandberg run this team, play some of the young kids. and see what we need to do next year, to get back to the top of the division. If for argument sakes we play herdanez and he gives us good defense, and solid o ffense. it would make utley decision easier. if we find out the two kids in the bullpen can handle it, maybe amaro stops his stupid durbin types of signings, I also thinkgs its time to see if asche can help this club, the michael young experiment should stop now,let the guy go, see if you can get him to a contender,.for nothing but cash relief.

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    1. Because he’s in the final year of his contract and he’s the winningest manager in Phillies history. Yes, I don’t think he is the right manager for this team, but what point would you be getting across by firing him at this point? He would be a scapegoat for lousy on field performance and terrible FO management. That’s not the way to treat the guy who led the team to a ring.

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       1. Right on Riggs… This is actually a sad end to his time with the Phillies, sold-out by bad management and untalented hacks. W/L don’t really matter at this point. Hopefully the team losses enough games to get a top 5 pick next year.

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       2. Point is that with him as manager we wont see the kids, in pressure situations, and I believe thats important, and as far as him being the winnings manager, thats is ancient history, yes fo is bad, scouts are terrible, especially at the big league level. But as was pointed out to me before this is a business, and charlie isnt helping this team find out what they have in the bulllpen, and in herdanez. sorry riggs but his leading us to a ring, has nothing to do with us now, do you keep a bad boss who is losing money for your company. just because in the past he made you money??

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          1. What would firing him accomplish? It would tarnish a very good managing career here. The only point would be to make him out to be the scapegoat for this season, which I don’t think is totally his fault.

             Again, I’m not totally disagreeing with you. He isn’t the right manager for this club going forward, but if this season is lost, let him just ride out the string. It’s not hurting anyone’s development as a player.

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       3. So Riggs you let him suffer for the last 3/4 months with this product on the field! Great way to treat the winningest coach in Phillies history…let him finish miserably!

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          1. So firing him and blaming him for the team’s struggles is what you want to do? Great way to treat the winningest manager in team history.

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             1. Coachs get fired every year……only small-minded sport-uneducated people blame them.

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                1. No one has answered my question – what does firing Charlie Manuel accomplish? Other than a change in who writes out the lineup card, will promoting Sandberg make the talent on the field better?

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                2. Firing charlie, imo gives us a chance to see the kids perform. and hopefully we find out about herdanez, stutes ,and de fratus, and maybe a asche, Sandberg doesn’t have the loyalty that charlie has to the veterans. like rollins, utley, howard.

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                3. We are seeing Stutes and DeFratus right now. Are you really looking forward to see what Hernandez can do?

                   So other than letting two guys in Hernandez and Asche play, that’s what firing Manuel will accomplish?

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32. My frustration with the major league team and its management – who have somehow managed to parlay a full stadium and luxury tax level payroll into a sub-.500 team – is beyond words. But the problems, which are broad and extensive, can really be boiled down as follows. It is hard enough to obtain good, cost-controlled players, but when you can’t distinguish between a player who is good and a player who is not good and when you lack a fundamental understanding of what player characteristics makes a team successful or unsuccessful, then you have NO SHOT of continuing your success over the long haul. Our general manager believes that Delmon Young is a good player. Our general manager believes that Michael Young is a good player. Our general manager believes that walks are not important. Our general manager simply does not believe in advanced metrics – we’re not talking about someone who tries to put those metrics in perspective, he categorically rejects them. Our general manager is a well-educated buffoon – a veritable carriage maker operating in the age of the automobile. He has no business running this team, but as long as he does he will make micro-decision after micro-decision that, when taken together, will make the team unsuccesful.

    I’ve had it and may not renew my partial season ticket plan next year. And I’m sure I’m not alone.

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    1. And many of his macro decisions aren’t too good either – thank you very much for Ryan Howard’s contract by the way.

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       1. You are not alone. I saw the writing on the wall and dumped my tickets after 2011. Had them from the day the stadium opened but i won’t pay top dollar for the product they are selling.

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    2. This is the price for an organization that went all in to win a WS. Many fans wanted that so they have to deal with the consequences. Sad but true.

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       1. Sorry dont buy went all in to win. they went all in with no foresight in the interational market to replenish there farm. Not having high draft choices, then they should have realize that they had to go to the la market to get talent. If they had spent some money on a profar, and one or two others, we still would be a good team. and a profar for example replacing rollins at a cheap price, profar got 1.5 million to sign, that wouldnt have broke the bank. and there are others.instead of being the top bottom in spending in la ,

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          1. What? How can you say they didn’t go all in to win after what the team traded for Oswalt, signed Lee and traded for Pence? That is the definition of all in my friend.

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             1. Riggs yes they di d go all in, but my point is they ignored the only place to get top talent , the latin market, going all in with our prospects., shouldnt have stopped them from getting the talent in la market. to restock.

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                1. It wasn’t just one thing that led to where the Phillies are now. Yes they didn’t spend in the LA market. They traded away the farm system. They signed Type A free agents. Injuries to aging superstarts. Many drivers that resulted in a mediocre team in 2012 and 2013.

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                2. I think that is his point. When you go all in and trade the farm, and lose draft picks to sign aging free agents, you have an opportunity to mitigate that some by being aggressive in Latin America. There was nothing holding them back from signing Latin American talent to keep the farm sufficiently stocked.

                   The fact that they chose not to do that is fairly damning on RAJ and kinda furthers the notion that some people have of him that he really has no coherent long term strategy.

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                3. But he didn’t say that. He said something totally different.

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                4. you worded it better than i did ty

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                5. Yes, that’s exactly my point. Ruben’s primary failing is in a series of micro moves that, in the aggregate, resulted in a drain of talent, an expensive payroll, a thin farm system, and an aging roster. As Marti Woelover said in a slightly different context – the team burned the candle at both ends. Folks, burning the candle at both ends, when the team has a huge fan base and a possibly huge tv contract coming up, is something that poorly run organizations do. The Brewers and Indians may often have legitimately small windows of opportunity that they have maximize from time to time but this need not be the case in Philadelphia. If the team were run properly, the Phillies window of opportunity, while not always fully maximized, would be virtually endless. But the team is not run properly and now we’re suffering through virtually unwatchable baseball. They are becoming the baseball version of the Sixers – Yuck!

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          2. Not to argue with the general point, there was no way Profar was going anywhere but Texas. They were one of the few teams to let him play SS (not pitch) and they had built a relationship with him since he was 14. It is really easy to selectively pick players out of LA who succeeded but a lot failed, but what if the Phillies had been the team to spend on Michael Ynoa. Someone like Oscar Taveres was right in the Phillies range signed for what the Phillies paid Santana.

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             1. Profar was just a example, but how many good kids, who could help us now came out of la market when we didnt have, the first round draft choices. They had the money to take a chance on some of these kids.so you miss on a ynoa but get a taveres, still not a ton of money to keep yourself good. just dont understand what the fo was thinking, when they just ignore to a large part. a place to get a first round talent, when they had none. matt did you see the cardinals went half a million over slot for a ss, in second round. They must really like this kid,. to go that far over slot. they dont miss a lot, so the kid must have a good chance. mention it, cause I thought it was a weak middle infield draft.

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                1. Mercado is all glove and no bat. He fell about half a round and the Cardinals paid him about what he should have gotten had he gone where I thought he was on the board. the y punted thier 6th round pick to make it happen and went under on some others

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       2. But wait a moment, we won in 2008 with a very manageable team salary. What you’re really saying is, “This is the price of poor spending by a team trying to remain in contention after winning a WS”

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          1. I don’t think it was poor spending on Halladay, Lee or Hamels. I think a combination of no first round picks, failed picks and trading away the farm has led the team to where they are right now.

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       3. No it really isn’t. This is the price for an organization which refused to spend $ in the draft and for international amateur talent. The money required was a pittance compared to their major league salary budget. You can go all out to win a WS without destroying the farm. Other top teams have done it. Whether it was the old Giles cheap ‘who needs a farm when the MLB team is good enough’ or loyalty to the commissioner, the Phillies could have and should have spent several million $ more on the farm each season. That they did not do so was a choice, not a necessity of wanting to go all out for a WS.

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    3. catch….don’t hold back, how do you really feel about Ruben?

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       1. Do you disagree with my assessment? I used to defend him, but he has what appear to be some very fatal flaws.

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    4. I’m far from the most pessimistic guy on here, but I find myself accepting one fundamental truth. The club, which has been mostly mismanaged under this ownership group simply got lucky in the late 2000s by having four home grown players all peak at the same time.

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       1. The ownership group is responsible for the lean years by being cheap. I cannot blame the ownership group for the last 10 year except on thing: Hiring RAJ. Granted, he had Gillik’s blessing, but the next test will be to see how long they keep him around. I suppose every time they cut a check to the decrepit Howard it will remind them their GM is a bafoon, but we’ll see how long he’ll last.

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          1. I still believe that the ownership group dictates the budget for the draft and international spending. This has nothing to do with RAJ. The owners say ‘don’t spend more than the commissioner has suggested’. Under multiple GMs and scouting directors, the team has done exactly that. The draft budget so consistently and unerringly matches Selig’s recommendation that there is no other plausible explanation. Wade, Gillick, and RAJ didn’t all just decide to do this on their own. We know the fight against Drew/Boras was led by the ownership group, with the GM and scouting director kicked to the side. For some reason, and I think that reason is Selig, the owners care mightily about what the team spends on the draft.

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       2. The success in the draft and LA from 1996 thru 2002 was historic. This happened even with major draft screwups in 1997 and 2001 due to personal animosity towards Scott Boras. That makes it even more amazing. Mike Arbuckle was good but this required some luck.

          The Phillies have been largely living off of that 1996-2002 core group for 7-8 seasons now. They have not been able to achieve results anywhere close to that on the farm since. The Phillies like to claim they have been restricted in recent years because they were picking near the bottom of drafts, but the reality is that they had many opportunities to do more. They just didn’t want to spend the money required to take those risks and go after premier talent.

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          1. This is part of the irony of the new draft and international signing slotting system. It helps teams like the Phillies who were willing to spend on the big club but were scrimping in the draft and international markets. However, the new system hurts teams like the Pirates (whom the new system was suppose to help) by limiting what they can do in the draft while not helping them with their inability to spend as freely as the big market teams at the major league level.

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             1. Yes, the best part of the new draft system is that it probably prevents the Phillies from spending at the bottom of MLB in the draft. From 2007 thru 2011 the Phillies were 28th in MLB in draft spend. This includes 2008 when they were 13th overall, so it shows how low spending was in the other 4 years relative to the rest of MLB.

                The new system will hopefully keep them closer to the middle of the pack.

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                1. They also didn’t have a first round pick in 2009 or 2011. That might be why they are lower relative to the rest of the MLB.

                   I do agree with your point that they tended to pay slot and not bust over those allotted amounts.

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33. anyone else really disappointed in freddy galvis? he gets the chance to play everyday with utley out and he’s now hitting .215. i know his defense is often spectacular, but i’s hard to justify an MLB regular batting .215.

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    1. I’m not disappointed, because I’m not surprised. We all new Galvis was not a good hitter. All of his value will be derived from fielding. If he hits for a .650 OPS you’re lucky.

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       1. it would help if he stopped overswinging.

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    2. I think Galvis’ development was handled less than optimally by the Phils, in the name of trying to help the big league club as much as possible. We knew he had a ways to go as a hitter, even as he had a solid 2011 season. He didn’t get much time in AAA at all, and last year he only had 200 total PAs. He is/was a young hitter who probably needs as many reps as he can get to develop with the bat, and he hasn’t been getting that since the Phils brought him up.

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34. Galvis never projected as better than an average hitter, so he’s exactly what everyone always expected him to be: gold glove, no bat.

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    1. There’s a huge difference between average hitter and no bat.

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35. We go back and forth on the draft/development issue. There are some legitimate defenses for the organization … players who might not have developed as expected after a trade but who got us good value in the trades, poor draft position, lost picks, good prospects traded away (whether in good deals or bad, since we’re evaluating drafting & development right now, not trades).

    Taking all that into account, the team has done better than an un-adjusted ranking of their system currently, or ranking of talent produced by the system over the past few years, would indicate. And I’ve made this point in the past. They probably, as an organization, are about average taking those factors into account.

    But here’s the thing – in the current environment, with a high payroll less able to make up for other faults, average isn’t good enough. Add in mistakes in talent evaluation at the major league level, and it’s no wonder the short term outlook of the team is so bleak.

    Yes, the normal ebb and flow of an organization (aging core) accounts for a portion of the problem (and is less able to be patched up by throwing money at the problem than in the past) – but IMO not the largest portion of the problem.

    The only bright spots: rules changes to level the financial playing field in the draft and foreign player acquisition, and (apparently) a slight change in organizational draft philosophy top stay away from the tool shed/no hit tool picks in the first couple of rounds. But that could easily be negated by Amaro’s decision making at the major league level.

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    1. Larry, kinda related to this post and also the “tanking” discussion you were having above. I’m was with you on not having a fire sale, but I increasingly wonder how it’s possible to get the team to 87-90 wins next year with all the following assumptions (salaries per cot’s contracts):

       -The luxury tax appears to be $189mm next year
       -We have ten players locked up (Howard, Rollins, Lee, Hamels, Adams, Papelbon, Brown, Galvis, Stutes, DeFratus) making a combined $106.5mm.
       -We have five arbitration cases who we will probably bring back for a total $14mm (Kendrick $8mm, Bastardo $2mm, Frandsen $1mm, JMJ $1.5mm, Ben Revere $1.5mm). These numbers are guesses and I very well could be off by a few million bucks, but that’s probably pretty close.
       -The insurance and 40 man costs are $10mm.
       -Let’s assume Biddle gives us 150 average to above average innings.

       Everything totals up to $131mm, leaving us $58mm. We still have openings at 2B, catcher, starting pitcher, and OF. If you’re not comfortable handing a starting job to Galvis or Frandsen, then we’ll need a 3B as well. If you’re not comfortable with Ben Revere starting, we need a second outfielder.

       There are just so many holes. Do you re-sign Utley and Ruiz when there’s an overwhelming history of older players at their positions falling off a cliff? Do you sign a type A free agent, when there’s little chance a single signing will even get us over .500? If you lose your first round pick next year, your chances of grabbing an impact talent in next year’s draft goes from unlikely to almost nonexistent.

       I can see why people view next season as a lost cause and if that’s the case, making Lee, Papelbon, and Rollins available makes some sense. I say this knowing that it’s highly unlikely they go in this direction because of the impact on attendance, but it’s also very likely we’re looking at a 75-80 win team next year even if we don’t choose to aggressively rebuild.

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       1. I don’t see them getting to 87 to 90 wins next year. But as I said, there is value in winning 80 as opposed to 60 to 70. Maybe more to the point, value in trying to compete, as opposed to turning into the Marlins.

          As to specifics:

          (1) Obviously it depends upon what it takes to sign them, but I’ve opined at length as to why Utley should be back. I don’t feel strongly about Ruiz – he indeed is a high decline risk, if the decline hasn’t already happened – but the combination of the lack of options and the fact that he likely will come cheap means that he may be back.

          (2) Third base is Asche, with Galvis the fallback option.

          (3) Revere comes back in center field, like it or not. IMO he is better than he has shown thus far (and it is not entirely irrelevant that he is hitting .319 in May and June).

          (4) Not seeing an opening at starting pitcher. Lannan, Kendrick (obviously I am assuming he resigns) and Pettibone behind Lee and Hamels may not be as imposing as the 2011 staff, but it is better than average.

          So that leaves one real hole – right field. If they want to get in the market for Choo they will have the cash. Should they? I agree the pick looms large, but Choo would shore up the position for the next few years, and there isn’t much in the system in the short term.. Otherwise there should be some FAs that do not require compensation that will at least be an upgrade.

          That’s a .500 team even without Choo, maybe a bit better if some things break right for them.

          Look, IF they can get impact prospects for those guys, they do have to think about dealing them. I don’t think they can, except maybe for Lee.

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          1. I’m not sure that Lannan is back next year. Also, I only think it is worth it to go after Choo if the 1st pick is protected. If it would give us a legitimate shot at the playoffs to sign a guy that costs us a pick I’m fine with that. If it is the difference between 78 and 82 wins, I’ll take the pick.

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             1. I hear you on Choo. But keep in mind that this organization is not going to let the RF situation fester indefinitely – certainly I can see them doing something worse than losing a number 1 pick for Choo.

                I could have sworn Lannan had a 2 year deal, but I see not. In any event, they are not going to spend much money on a starter even if they sign one.

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          2. If Rupp handles the AAA promotion (and it appears thus far he will), I see no problem with promoting him and going with Kratz and Rupp in place of Ruiz next year.

             Choo scares me a little … all these 30-plus guys signing big deals are severely underperforming in recent years. I’m wondering if they could get someone like Nelson Cruz on the cheap, given the whole PED scandal.

             As for the rotation … is Lannan signed for next year? I don’t see at this point why the org would re-up for the guy.

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             1. According to Cot’s, Lannan is arbitration eligible.

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       2. Replied to myself to keep the post from becoming too skinny…

          One thing I left out of my first post is that we also have to consider is that the Phillies have a run differential of a 28-39 team right now. That’s a 67 win pace. Using run differential isn’t perfect, but it does suggest that if no changes are made to the team for the rest of the year we’ll probably finish with less than our projected 77 wins. I honestly believe that the true talent of this current team is 73-75 wins. Ignoring the Choo signing for a second, it sounds like we’re advocating the same approach but we differ on what results that approach will bring.

          I have no problem bringing back Utley on a 2-3 year deal because if anyone warrants ignoring trends it’s him. I’m fine with Ruiz too as long as it’s a one year deal. I have little hope Asche is more than a below average regular, but as a one year stopgap for Franco it’s perfectly fine. You suggest Pettibone and Lannan as the last two starters. I’d rather have Biddle replace Pettibone because I just don’t think Pettibone is much better than a #5 who you’re always looking to upgrade. I’d rather look to free agency for a $4-$6mm pitcher for the last spot because Lannan’s peripherals have never been very good. That said, not a big difference for next year’s team with either of our plans.

          Here’s the thing though: I think that’s a 72-75 win team. Lee, Utley, Ruiz, Howard, Papelbon, Rollins, and Adams are all in decline. Their decline is going to offset potential improvements from Revere, Brown, Galvis, and Biddle. So I’d say under that scenario signing a guy like Choo doesn’t help much. We’re still below .500. I think I’d rather keep the pick and reload once again with another good draft. At that point, we’ll have enough assets in the minors to begin restocking the major league club in earnest and/or trade for other teams’ more expensive players.

          What’s really unfortunate is that another GM might be capable of signing “bargain” free agents or making a few under the radar trades to keep the club more competitive while we go through this transition, but I have zero faith that Amaro is that guy.

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       3. Pat,

          Some reasons I’m a bit more optimistic than that:

          I see plenty of (small) areas of likely improvement on this season’s performance to date, hence my greater optimism. And a lot of the decline from older veterans has already happened; not sure there is much more to lose in that regard in the short term.

          (1) Hamels is better than his performance to date.

          (2) It’s going to be hard to be worse at catcher/first base/right field. Despite real problems going forward at all three positions, even a mediocre sign in RF, better health at catcher and … well Howard can’t be WORSE, can he? Maybe they will finally start sitting him against left handers, that’s worth 10 runs over the course of a year by itself. Bottom line, some regression to the mean helps at those positions.

          (3) We may differ regarding third base, but I see Asche as a little bit of an upgrade over Young.

          (4) Revere is better than he has shown thus far.

          Obviously there are downside risks as well – Lee could decline, that’s probably the biggest one – but OTOH Brown, while he is unlikely to remain as hot as he was (he’s already cooled off a bit) still has some upside if you look at his overall performance to date. Also if Biddle is ready in 2014, he’s an upgrade over Lannan or Pettibone.

          It’s still only around 81 wins, though.

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          1. Yeah, I totally forgot to mentioned Hamels but he’s definitely a candidate to improve. Most of the personnel decisions will be a little clearer come the end of the season. It’ll be fun to revisit then.

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36. I am trying to watch this team. its so hard . delmon young swings at pitches and misses by a foot. he really stinks, Hopefully the summer goes by fast.

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    1. did you see young get thrown out at the plate by 20 feet when he should’ve scored? this team is a complete mess.

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       1. Paps, Ruf and Colvin to the Tigers for Castellanos.

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37. Regarding Brown, I like the way he is dealing with his recent minor slump. One for his last 16, but 2 BB and only 2 K. For the month of June he has 6 BB (12% BB rate), so the May BB total appears, as we hoped, to have been a bit of a fluke. K rate for the month is down also.

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    1. I was never really concerned with it. I thought it was pretty much a given he would just be more patient as soon as people started pitching around him. the key will be him being able to turn it back on when he gets the good pitches

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       1. Me too, mostly, though seeing the O-swing data broken down by month (it was quite high in May) made me worry just a little bit. June has erased that small worry.

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