Top 10 Round Recap

Other Stuff

I am going to start by saying I really like what the Phillies did in the draft and they actually seem to be alternating pitching and hitting heavy drafts.

JP Crawford – Not much more to say here, best player available, and at a position of both need and overall scarcity.  Crawford may need some time but he comes in as an easy Top 5 prospect in the Phillies system.

Signing Probability (Slot – $2,299,300) – 100%, it might take the whole slot but this is the Phillies guy

Andrew Knapp – Knapp is a very solid player who has some projection level.  If the defense actualizes he is a backup, but the offense could make him at least a regular.  Has very interesting positional flexibility.

Signing Probability (Slot – $1,033,100) – 100% The Phillies will likely save some money here (likely not more than $200,000) and they need that money later.

Cord Sandberg – I love this pick, he has a ton of tools and talent and to get that with a 3rd round pick is great.  Getting into camp early will be huge for his development.

Signing Probability ($593,400) – 100%, The Phillies and Sandberg have agreed to an above slot deal already, but much lower than numbers that had been out there.

Jan Hernandez – John Sickels loves Hernandez and thinks he has as much upside as any hitter in the draft.  There is plus power from a pretty swing.  If he sticks at SS he could be a monster, but there is plenty of bat and glove for third.

Signing Probability ($535,800) – 99%, This is the Rash pick and the Phillies saved themselves enough money late to make it work, though Hernandez will probably sign for right at slot.

Jake Sweaney – Swaney is an athlete , but one whose strength is his bat.  If the catcer defense come along he could be the second best catcher in the class to McGuire.  If he needs to move off catchr he should be able to play a more premium position than first base.

Signing Probability ($421,000) – 95%, it might take overslot but the Phillies have positioned themselves well to do it

Ben Wetzler – Ben is back of the rotation type starter unless the stuff ticks up.  But in the 5th round to get a LHP with a chance to start is good value.  He should move quickly because of a plus changeup and won’t really be tested until AA.

Signing Probability ($315,000) – 100%, likely right for slot as well

Jason Monda – Monda is an interesting pick because all he does is hit but he doesn’t walk and swings at everything.  But there are more tools then a typical 6th round college kid.   Probably destined for a corner outfield position, though he can play some center field.

Signing Probability ($236,000) – 95%, He probably will get close to slot, there were rumors of a med school commitment that might prevent this from being a money saver.  The only way he isn’t signed is if this goes overslot

Trey Williams – Williams is interesting because the profile says much higher pick but there have been some makeup and hit tool questions.  He has a good approach and power and the defense to stay at third base.  If they get him signed he is a good value for the 7th round.

Signing Probability ($176,900) – 80%, My only pause is that the Phillies have enough upside guys after the 10th that if Williams’ demands go too high they could give his overslot money to someone else.

Justin Parr, Shane Martin, Jon Prosinski – All senior signs, they are a step above org filler but not good prospects at this point.  The two pitchers might have bullpen potential and Parr is a bat who will have to mash his way to being a prospect.

Signing Probability ($154,700, $144,400, $135,300) – 100%, Parr might need up to $25,000 but they should all sign for under $40,000 as a group, adding about $390,000 to pay other picks with.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

70 thoughts on “Top 10 Round Recap”

    1. I think they get Marantano signed for close to $100,000 with a deal to play football.

      Unless something changes there is no chance Biggio signs. He would have been a 2nd round pick if signable

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  3. I think they make a run at one or two of the HS or CC arms. Keys and Jax both sound like pretty promising arms and Keys sounds like a real competititve guy, maybe his mentality makes it so he wants to prove himself in the minors. Maybe even meadors, Morris, or Southard, the community college guys. I’d even add Musgrave to that list. If we can steal 2 of those arms, this draft will look better and better.

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    1. I assume that the 11,12,13 round picks are generally HS guys that Phillies know will take $100K or less who Phillies really like. That way those players are ‘known’ signs and then the teams can go after guys with higher demands to see what they have left over from the pool.

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      1. i dno if 11 and 12 will be easy signs. I think it will take some money to get them out of college, especially Keys with a pretty strong relationship with Kansas.

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      2. I think you assume incorrectly. Both Keys (round 11) and Jax (round 12) have college commitments. It’s much more likely these two guys will demand over-slot deals, if they decide to sign at all.

        What you described (i.e., high schools guys that the Phillies really like who will take $100k or less) pretty much doesn’t exist.

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  4. Nice quick summary. I do like the general strategy for money management. ‘Extra money’ from the last 3 guys. Great job getting Sandberg, though it sounds like he has no pitch recognition. Other than the seniors, Wetzler seems like the only low upside guy but fits the Phillies lefty starter quotient.

    I am okay with Crawford but how awesome would it have been to get either McGuire or Shipley (I considered both Top10 guys).
    I doubt Knapp takes a lower slot number, he was drafted where expected. Not sure why Phillies drafted so many catchers last season, acquired more in trades, and drafted even more this year. One good thing is that both of these guys are bat first C and have only part-time wear and tear. C take a long type to develop and need playing time to do it

    I do like Hernandez quite a bit. Sounds like a bat good enough for 3B but (remote) defensive possibility of SS. Not sure if he has a college commitment. Monda seems like an overdraft. No plate discipline, not enough power. Has talent though so not a poor pick IMHO. Williams is a nice upside choice. If they Phillies cannot pay him then they only lose $175K to sign others.

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    1. I agree with this almost completely. Shipley would have been my pick but you kinda know the types of payers have in their wheelhouse and when Crawford got to them, he was the guy.

      Honestly, I think they sign everyone Round 1-11. Jax is the first one I’m not sure about. I think Matarano signs and goes to Boise. Then the next signing question is Child.

      Solid draft overall. The new system really helps the Phillies by bringing bak the rest of the league to them.

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  5. What is the chance Dalton Dulin signs? We don’t have many pure 2B prospects in our system.

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    1. because there really arent many pure 2b prospects. Most 2bers tend to be conversions from other sports.

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    2. Second base prospects tend to be failed SS or other conversion attempts. There is a small group that thinks that Quinn could try it (personally I think the stuff that makes him bad at SS would still be bad at 2B). Pullin and Hernandez are the only two 2B only “prospects” in the system. The bigger problem with players who start as 2B prospects is there is no back up plan. There is no major league back up 2B who can’t play SS so you have to stick it offensively and defensively. Just look at the case of Hernandez who has to be starter to really have a future.

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      1. I could see where some 2B could move to CF, decent speed but poor arm guys. Most 2B prospects do not have the bat for corner position.

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      2. Dissertation duly noted. Now what about the question regarding the chances of Dulin signing? Anyone hear or see anything?

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        1. Don’t expect anything on the after 10th round guys signing for a couple of weeks at least, the Phillies will look sign their Top 10 picks before they move on to signing the later guys. This is because they will make sure the money is available before locking a guy up.

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          1. So based on your projections at the top, you’re saying the Phils have roughly $300k of saved bonus money to use after signing the top 10? With that how many more top 500 guys do you see signing? Basically you either offer $400k to one guy or offer $200k to three guys. Unless I’m missing something.

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            1. I’m pretty sure the math he described means the Phillies have 300k or so for over-slot bonuses INCLUDING top 10 rd picks. ~180k of which is going to Cord. I think that leaves ~120k for all the guys after rd 10 you describe as well as the Sweaney, Hernandez types that may require slightly above slot deals.

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            2. No. Not counting whatever they may (or may not) save on Knapp, the Phillies have at least 520K to add to the players drafted in rounds 11-40.
              They have 400K from the projected savings on the rounds 8-10 seniors.
              They have 300K from the 5% buffer they are allowed to go over the 6Mil draft pool.
              Minus the 180K they are projected to overpay Cord Sandberg.
              That’s 520K, without a discount from Knapp. The Phillies should have plenty of room to sign any of the players that have an open mind towards signing a pro contract.

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            3. I’d say there’s roughly a snowball’s chance in you know where that the Phillies indeed decide to use much if any of that 5% buffer.

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            4. I agree. It’s probably 99%, that the Phillies will not go over their 6 million dollar pool.

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          2. Understood, but some guys (Biggio, Musgrave) immediately indicate they definitely will not sign, while others (Keys, Jax, Martarano) indicate they may be willing to sign. I haven’t seen anything one way or the other about Dulin in that regard.

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  7. Overall seems like a pretty successful draft….time will tell. When will Williamsport and GCL rosters be announced? Hope to see Tocci stay at Lakewood but what do they do with LGJ??

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    1. No offense to you personally, but there is just too much LGJ hate on this site right now. Let’s let the season play out before burying this guy. I totally agree he is off to a bad start and showing up out of shape is beyond unacceptable, but let’s see how the season plays out before judging.

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      1. Unless the Phillies Front Office believes all he needs is confidence or a different hitting coach, there is no reason to demote him to WPT again. He needs to make adjustments at an appropriate level. If Larry just really has no confidence I think Phillies are better off just taking him out of competitive games altogether.
        If he truly has a ‘slow bat’ as was rumored then there is not much hope for him regardless. Maybe they can teach him how to guess at pitches.

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      2. No problem. I actually feel sort of sorry for him, although showing up out of shape was not encouraging. I really wonder what they can do to help him. Would not give up on him but he seems to need an “intervention” of some sort.

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        1. Look the minors isnt about winning. Leave greene there. he is just so bad. that moving him down proves nothing. I really believe a guy that is this bad, has really little hope. they blew the pick. we have to move on.

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  8. Excellent job, Matt. Emphasis on offense obviously. Even though chosen as catchers both Knapp and Sweaney seem offensive guys with Knapp maybe able to play other position(s) where his switch hitting bat would be an asset to a lineup adding power. So he is not limited to catcher even though his experience is at that position.

    A very good pick since the “multitude” of catchers now in the pharm are curiously undetermined, mainly Joseph(?). Valle looks like a failure. Nobody else has moved forward at that position in our system, it seems. Knapp to Wlmsprt.

    Looks like 3b is destined to be a strong suit in the system adding Hernandez with Asche and Franco priorities by timeliness/readiness. And maybe adding Trey Williams at the position.

    First 5-6 picks are STRONG!

    Though this draft’s strongest position has been said to be pitching, Wolever jumped into a an-in-betweener to grab offense while “nobody was looking.” Good job.

    Now about pitching…….

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  9. In another thread I questioned how they would get Crawford, Hernandez and Trey Williams all on the field together. Somehow I missed that Jan Hernandez is listed as a SS/2B on MLB.com’s top 100 list. Maybe they play Jan Hernandez at 2B in the GCL.

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      1. Will be interesting to see if they all get signed, where they end up.
        I could see Hernandez getting time at both 3B (mostly) and SS, kinda like GCL used Zach Green last year.
        If Martarano signs and plays for 2 months I figured they’d put him at 1B just to try to get his bat going before football season.

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  10. RAFAEL DEVERS is better than any of these picks.

    He’s going to play 3B for 15 years in MLB.

    Robbie Cano bat.

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    1. we get the point. But the phillies arent really being linked to him. They have however been linked to another dominican 3b named luis encarnacion who might have just as good of a bat.

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  12. I really like what the Phils did in the draft, and I really don’t like what they are doing on the field. Total disgrace

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      1. If he can hit a baseball. And doesn’t get injured in the off season playing line-backer.

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  14. Cord Sandberg….a toolsy OF prospect who had a mediocre senior HS season. Looks like his hit tool will take awhile coming around. Wolever alluded to this in the pick and signing.

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    2. Yeah, he’s a gamble, but a gamble made in the 3rd round instead of the first or second. That is fine. You aren’t going to find any sure-thing prospects in round 3, so a gamble on ceiling is far from the worst strategy.

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  15. I am just happy with influx of talent. It was getting tough watching Reading box score as there was clearly hole in minor league system there. Anticipating within 2 years all levels are flush again with some prospects to watch.

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    1. With any luck Reading will be good mid season. Although, will Clearwater still be worth checking out?

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  16. Martarano sounds like the biggest question mark, right? Sounds like Keys and Griffin are on board and they should have enough room to sign all the top 10 rounders.

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    1. He sounded like he was going to sign for me. He tweeted after getting drafted about how he can get paid $100k to play baseball whenever he wants and still play football.

      Sounds like he’d go the Ricky Williams route with the Phils. Get paid by the Phils, get his tuition paid to go to college and play football while playing minor league baseball 8-10 weeks during the summer before going back to college for football/classes.

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      1. How could a player develop like that? Not nearly enough at-bats, plus he’ll probably be juggling his weight and conditioning late in the season to get ready for college football season

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        1. It’s not ideal for his near-term baseball development, certainly, but the Phillies are only risking $100k, so the downside is limited.

          Also, as noted elsewhere, it kind of makes more sense to think of Martarano of being on retainer, with a $100k retainer fee. The Phillies retain his baseball services, but don’t get full use of those services until he is finished with college football. At that point Martarano essentially becomes a college signee, with a few years of part-time experience in the Phillies system. And if football doesn’t work out for him, he can go into baseball full time anytime prior to completing 4 years at Boise State.

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          1. Is he a top college prospect? future NFL prospect? Just wondering how good he is on the gridiron

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            3. FWIW, one recruiting service has him ranked as a 3-star recruit (5-star being the highest rating), which generally is a solid college prospect, but by no means elite. He was not listed as a nationally ranked prep LB prospect. Of course, the recruiting services rankings are far from perfect.

              There is no way to tell how he will develop as a football player and a future NFL prospect, but purely from a statistical basis, the odds are heavily stacked against him from making the NFL. It’s much more likely that, at some point, he becomes a pro baseball player. Whether he is any good as a pro baseball player is another question entirely,

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            5. What I Ilke about Joe M. is his size…6’3″, 230 lbs or so., and his strength, since football players spend a good amount of time in weight rooms, and taught to do it correctly.

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            6. This really isn’t true. They learn how to use the weight room correctly for football prep. The distribution of muscle mass you want for football is different from what you want for baseball. I had a high school friend who was a baseball OF and football QB. The weight training for football left him uncompetitive for baseball. Not many guys make it in both football and baseball. Neon Deion was the last big example, but there is a difference in bulking up for linebacker and defensive back.

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  17. 2014 Lakewood Blueclaws:
    C: Grullon/Knapp, Lino
    1B: ?
    2B: Pullin
    3B: Green, Pierce, Williams
    SS: Crawford, Greene
    OF: Sandberg, Tocci, Cozens
    P: Gueller, Shull, Vargas, Watson

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    2. I’m not sure what they do with all of the catchers. I’m very sure that the 17 year old Grullon isn’t going to be jumped to Lakewood. Teams don’t double jump catchers, that young, and he reportedly has a lot to learn with the bat. How they handle Numata, Lino and Knapp, will be interesting, when NYP opens. All could fall into place, if they deemed Numata advanced enough to be promoted to Clearwater. Then Lino could go back to the SAL, and Knapp could get fulltime reps at Williamsport. I’m not sure how they plan on using both Grullon and Jake Sweaney in the GCL.

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    3. I wouldn’t be surprised if JP Crawford made it all of the way to Lakewood by next year. He is an advanced Southern California player. If he signs early, and hits like a 1st round pick from California should hit in the GCL, he could get some ab’s in the NYPL before the end of the season.
      Sandberg could probably perform on the same schedule as Crawford, but I don’t know the level of competition he played against in Florida has prepared him to just blow through the GCL. Not to mention, there is more OF prospects that Sandberg would have to jump, to get to Lakewood. I think he goes to NYP next year, unless he really over achieves.

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      1. Do they try to get him to switch-hit, learn to hit righthanded? Interestingly he is right-hand dominant. They try it the other direction often, ie Galvis in 2006, Quinn, It would seem it would work better for Crawford then the others.

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      2. I think it will be at least a mild disappointment if Crawford isn’t Lakewood’s SS this year. Quinn wasn’t a SS when drafted, is being taught to switch hit, and was not a first round pick, yet he is at Lakewood. Crawford should be on the same trajectory.

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        1. Allentown, you’re losing track of the years. Quinn was drafted in 2011. He should be in Lakewood in the 3rd season after being drafted. Crawford would be in Lakewood in his 2nd season.
          However, I do agree that it would be mildly disappointing if he didn’t make it to Lakewood next year.

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  18. -Numata will likely remain in Lakewood until at least August
    -Knapp should report to Williamsport and take it from there
    -Lino should start in NYP but earn a quick promotion to Lakewood by September
    -Grullon will be in in Lakewood by 2015
    -Sweaney should report to GCL and take it from there, aim for Lakewood by 2015

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    1. There is no promotion to Lakewood in September. The season is over by that time.

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