1st Round Draft Board

2013 Draft

I will admit that my real knowledge of the draft really ends after the first round so I am going to limit this to the first round.  This is a list of the order in which I would take players in this draft if I was the Phillies.  For the most part this means best player available on pure talent.  However, I have taken into account signability and the Phillies ability to develop pitchers better than hitters over the past few years.

1. Kris Bryant

2. Jonathan Gray

3. Mark Appel

I have had the pitchers above Bryant for a while, but power is at a premium right now and Bryant is going to hit for plenty.  Even in RF he is a middle of the order high impact bat.  Gray has ace potential and I think Appel is more of a #2 long term, even if he is essentially major league ready.

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Clint Frazier

6. Austin Meadows

7. Trey Ball

The top HS arm and bat, I like Kohl’s stuff and athleticism a lot, and I think he has ace potential down the road.  Frazier has power and bat speed, but I worry about the size and questions about the approach.

I don’t think Meadows and Ball are that far behind Stewart and Frazier.  The fact that Meadows will hit and play CF makes the power just luxury and I surprised he has slid on boards.  I am sucker for athletic LH high school pitchers.  There is always a place for LHPs and if you have a plus fastball and feel for secondary pitches you can be dominant.

8. Colin Moran

9. Braden Shipley

Both players scare me as being just merely good.  I think by the back of the Top 10 you bank a player like Moran who is safe and be ecstatic, whereas Shipley has some risk that the pitches will just be above average to plus with a truly dominant pitch.

10. Reese McGuire

He might be the safest HS player in the draft.  The defense could get him to the majors on its own, the bat will determine his future.  Even if it is merely average he could be an above average regular.  If the power shows he could be a superstar.

11. Hunter Renfroe

12. DJ Peterson

13. Ryne Stanek

Three talented college players with big time questions.  If Renfroe is the player he was this year he is a Top5 talent in the draft, if not he is a second round pick.  Peterson is a pure bat, it might have to happen at first but he still could be a great hitter on the major league level.  Stanek has big stuff but if he doesn’t find a consistent third pitch you could be picking a closer in the Top 15.

14. Dominic Smith

15. Phil Bickford

16. JP Crawford

The next wave of big time HS talents.  Smith has the bat to be an impact first baseman and would be a top pick if he could stick in RF.  Bickford has big projection with scouts thinking he could touch triple digits consistently in his prime, but the changeup and curveball could use a lot of polish.  Crawford’s biggest asset is that he should be a shortstop long term, the fact that he has plenty of projection means he has plenty of potential left.

17. Robert Kaminisky

18. Aaron Judge

19. Eric Jagielo

20.  Marco Gonzalez

There has been plenty made of Kaminisky’s shortcomings like his height and lack of projection but the stuff and polish right now is similar to a college pitcher and he could move throw the minors like one.  Judge has massive raw power that will need some swing mechanics work to fully untap, there is a lot of miss in the long swing but plenty to like.  Jagielo and Gonzalez are safe picks that could move quickly, but lack the upside I want out of a mid-1st round pick.

21. Sean Manaea

I don’t know what to think about Manaea and the new draft rules will make him full down the first round.  At some point a team has to take him and hope they can put the money together to sign him.  The injuries and limited time of dominance really scare me especially when you are going to have to sign college seniors in the Top 10 rounds to make it happen.

22. Nick Ciuffo

23. Ian Clarkin

24 Devin Williams

Ciuffo is a solid all-round catcher and no fanbase is going to be excited to get him here he is a great value as catchers who can receive and swing the bat are always needed.  Clarkin and Williams are the rare HS pitchers with current plus secondary pitches with Clarkin’s curveball and Williams’ changeup.

25. Hunter Harvey

26. Jon Denney

Big risk here,  Harvey is mostly projection but he might have a plus fastball and curveball when it is all done, but the changeup is missing right now.  Denney’s stock has plummeted when the questions about the defense were joined with questions about the swing and miss in the swing.

27. Austin Wilson

28. Chris Anderson

29. Tim Anderson

30. Jonathan Crawford

These 4 college players have more projection and upside than your normal college player, but they all come with question.  One of these four players will prove to be a Top 10 player in this draft and people will wonder how they fell this far.

 

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

31 thoughts on “1st Round Draft Board”

  2. I agree with most of this, but disagree very much with how high you have Robert Kaminisky. I’d flip Chris Anderson and Kaminisky’s spots in the order. I might not even draft Kaminisky in the 1st round. I’d also drop Judge about ten spots.

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  3. I really hope that the phillies,dont take kaminisky, he isnt a elite talent imo. at best a 4 or 5 starter on a bad team.

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  4. So what would you do (question for everybody) if Stewart drops to 16? I love the talent but I could see him pulling an Appel and demanding top 5 money. Do you break the bank to sign him? Pass on him as unsignable?

    As for myself if any of a dozen other guys drops to 16 I would pass on Stewart. If none of them drop I would break the bank on Stewart and either eat the penalty (easy to do with someone else’s money) or sign fewer of the other top picks.

    If none of the other top guys drop I could see the Phillies going with Judge or Denney as they seem to love HS guys with holes in their swings.

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    1. I don’t see the Philiies drafting Kohl Stewart even if he falls to them. It’s not their M.O.. the Phillies are going to draft a player they know they can sign. If he fell that far, it would be because he is asking for a ridiculous amount that picks 8-15, wouldn’t pay. The Phillies can go over their draft allotment by 5%. That means they can go about 310K over slot for him. But all the other teams ahead of them, can go higher. If they cant sign him, the Phillies cant sign him.

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    2. I personally would take him, if he falls it will be like Appel last year where teams just didn’t have time to figure out his number (unlike the old system you can’t make up for signability risk by taking guys later who you could overpay because you lose the slot money). I think Stewart is the kind of player you risk not signing your first round pick to pick.

      I think there is no way he falls that far, I think Pittsburgh could certainly take him at 8 before cutting a deal at 14 to make it work and I doubt he would make it past Toronto or Kanasa city if he doesn’t go #4

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      1. I believe the #9 pick is unprotected. So they can’t take Stewart with that pick, unless they know he will sign.

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          1. I know you can never have too much Pitching and you don’t draft on need but man the Pirates have a lot of top flight arms in there system, Cole, Taillon, Heredia, and Glasnov, but need more bats and McGuire seems to be a custom fit for them at #9. Of course if they got Stewart they could trade one or more of their pitchers to get a bat at the deadline this year. I don’t think they would want to risk taking the pr hit of not signing there first pick two years in a row.

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  6. Hopefully Smith or Crawford falls to the Phils at 16. If both were to somehow be available, my gut tells me to ignore positional value and go with Smith. He sounds to me like a guy who could develop on a similar path as Singleton, whom we could then trade two years down the road for a hacktastic, overrated corner outfielder rental.

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    1. dont forget we could also throw in our number one pitching prospect and a young power hitter just for the hell of it

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  7. Smith would be my choice, although Crawford is the last of the guys I’d take before Stewart if they both fall.

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  10. I think where Phil Bickford goes in the draft will have a major impact on who is left for the Phillies at #16. Bickford has already told the teams that his price is 3 million. He needs to be taken in the 1st 10 picks to help push the Dominic Smith’s and JP Crawfords down to the Phillies.

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          1. I would take Bickford all day at #16, I don’t think the Phillies would think of going 700K over slot though.

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  12. Great list, Matt!
    I have only been reading about draft for two days and your list seems to agree with the consensus Top16 (as did the PP poll).
    I think best ‘match’ for Phillies is Ball. Super athletic and lefty pitcher to boot. I think none of the Top10 guys listed will be available at 16. One of the next 6 has to be though.
    Unfortunately the guy I like least (in top16) is JP Crawford who I think carries the most risk (pitchers always carry risk).
    I’d put Chris Anderson into that 16th slot ahead of JP. I also agree with Kaminsky at 17 since he is a prep lefty, which the Phillies seem to have most success, but does not fit the large size profile. Phillies also have not developed command for pitchers, so I’d really want a guy who currently has good command with a good fastball. The org does seem to be able to develop some secondary pitches though.
    On the hitter side I’d really like the Phillies to draft an ‘advanced’ hitter since plate discipline does not seem to be something the organization (not sure if any org can) is able to develop.

    For sake of discussion:
    Renfroe – one season wonder, at least the supposed talent was there earlier, K’s too much
    Peterson – positionless, I’d like if he was the pick though, a pure hitter sounds like the Phillies might not screw him up, even Burrell ‘played’ LF/1B.
    Stanek – stiff motion is scary, poor command is a second big issue, reminds me of Ethan Martin
    Smith – Singleton like, I’d be okay with him if Peterson was not there, pure hitter is again a great buzz word, maybe he’d get a try in RF before moving to 1B, may only develop Asche power?
    Bickford – seems like good choice but wants serious $$, recent helium might be a risk but at least his issues seem to be on secondary pitches not as much on motion or command.
    Crawford – at least he should field SS with upside, but I figure he won’t hit (Tyler Green) so it won’t matter.

    Given the 11-16 options here’s my preference:
    Peterson, Smith, Bickford, Renfroe, Stanek, [Anderson], Crawford. Wildcard = Manaea

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  13. I knew the Red Sox would never let Trey Ball get by them. I wrote that somewhere.

    STUD.

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