General Discussion – Week of 6-3-2013 – Domodition

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Please, someone talk about Dom Brown because we haven’t heard enough about him lately.
 
Actually, I’m fine with it. So go ahead.

132 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-3-2013 – Domodition”

      1. I’d still prefer Smith to Crawford. Not saying these are direct comparisons for these players but I’d rather take Joey Votto than Starlin Castro. From the reports I have seen Crawford is a solid player and potential All-Star but Smith is the type of hitter who could man your clean-up spot for a decade or more. I know you don’t draft for need but the Phillies don’t really have a good clean-up hitter prospect in there system (even Franco projects more as a #5).

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        1. Agreed. Franco and maybe Cozens are probably the only two who project as middle of the lineup guys. Maybe Tocci. Cozens and Tocci are so far away. They need more options as guys who can develop into middle of the lineup hitters. They are really weak in that area.

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          1. I forgot about Cozens since he isn’t in full season. Tocci is still too thin to project anywhere in a lineup but who knows? Dugan is the only other prospect I could see as approaching middle of the lineup but not really as a cleanup hitter.

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        2. “but I’d rather take Joey Votto than Starlin Castro”

          So Dominic Smith hits like Joey Votto? He draws walks like that? Smith has that kind of pitch recognition?

          Then bring him on.
          .

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          2. I’d rather the best Highschool hitter regardless of position rather than a very solid but not outstanding shortstop.

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  2. I know you were being sarcastic but:

    It goes without saying that what Brown has done recently – especially in the past couple of weeks – is extraordinary. I want to talk about a subsidiary issue, plate discipline and BB. Notably, he went the whole month of May without a BB.
    Now, let’s start with this: evaluating him on a purely performance basis, the decline in BB is massively outweighed by the increased power. What, however, does the decreased BB rate tell us about what kind of hitter he will be going forward?
    IMO, fortunately not much. I’ve discussed previously his increased aggressiveness, which is real. But the increase isn’t THAT much. His overall swing percentage this year is 51.5%, compared to a career total of 47.9%. His O-swing% (swings on pitches out of the zone) is 31.7% versus a career 28.9%. That’s sustainable – a player (a power hitter especially) generally needs to have an O-swing% close to 40% before it becomes seriously exploitable by pitchers (see, e.g., Josh Hamilton). Also notable and relevant is that his K% has remained pretty stable and quite good for a power hitter (18.6%).
    Of course, all else being equal, it would be nice to see Brown revert to his previous plate discipline (which was never extraordinary, but was a little better than average). BUT while far from convinced that his increased power has anything to do with being more aggressive, the last thing you want to see from him for now is messing with his approach. It’s working for him obviously. When he hits an inevitable slump, he will (hopefully) revert somewhat to his previous level of plate discipline.
    But that leaves us with a mystery. How can a power hitter with decent (current below average, but not horrible) plate discipline have so few BB of late? I don’t have an answer, but even if he sticks with his current more aggressive approach, his BB rate should end up settling in the 8% to 10% range. With his other skills – of course he’ll cool down, but I think it’s fairly clear he has found an excellent power stroke which he should retain – he should be a heck of a player going forward.

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    1. It was interesting to see him take a walk in the 7th or 8th inning yesterday. If he were undisciplined he could have easily swung away for a double ( cycle) and a 4 for 4 day. He certainly can’t keep up this pace but it’s fun to watch while it lasts. It’s especially good to see a homegrown player do so well. Like many, I think he was misused earlier in his career and I’m glad he has had the mentality to work through the ups and downs. Hopefully we have a talent to appreciate for the next decade. Now if we could only develop two or three more….Franco? Tocci? Quinn?

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    2. Part of what he’s doing is being more aggressive in hitter’s counts. There’s an article on Fangraphs that notes Brown has swung in 16 of 20 3-1 counts. Before this year he’d swung in 29 of 53. So he’s picking his spots and he’s focused on not letting hitable pitches go by.
      Hopefully once pitchers inevitably adjust, and start being more careful with him when the count is 3-1 and 2-0, he’ll lay off when appropriate.

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    3. “It goes without saying that what Brown has done recently – especially in the past couple of weeks – is extraordinary”

      Chris Davis is having a better season. Brown could easily end up with a 35 HR season. Hardly extraordinary. If he ends up over 50 HR it’s still not “extraordinary”. Howard has a 58 HR season on his baseball-reference resume.

      I always saw Brown as a guy who would have a couple of .900+OPS seasons with two or three .800+ OPS seasons in front and behind the peak seasons. This could easily be one of the .800 OPS years as his OPS is only .921 after all the fireworks. He isn’t even sniffing Chris Davis’ work.

      So the Phillies have one bat. Where are they going to get the other seven they need?
      .

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        1. Half empty? It sounds like he’s barely put a drop in the glass. I know he’s only trying to get our goat but don’t think of what might have been, just sit back and enjoy the ride. He was a top 5 prospect who’s finally showing it… at least for a while.

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      2. Hahahahahaha Yep, I bet nobody even breaks Barry Bonds 73 hr record this year, so everyone cease enjoying anything. Maybe something “extraordinary” will happen next year.

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      3. It is extraordinary because even the people that had Brown as breaking out this year thought he might do something like 25 HR .850 OPS whereas most people were thinking more like 15 HR and a .750 OPS.

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        1. I am pretty sure my prediction was something like 260/320/420 with 25 homers but i would be disappointed with that now. New prediction-280/320/450 .900 OPS with 35 homers.

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            1. i don’t know what the heck i did there lol. 280/350/450=.800 not 900. Kept the obp the same instead of increasing. I think He will have to start increasing walks substantially as pitchers adjust or he will never see .350 OBP!

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            2. He’s probably more likely to get an SLG over .450 than an OBP over .350 especially if he hits 35 HR. 35 HR and a .450 SLG mean very few doubles.

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            3. Aron that is very true but I think Brown only has seven doubles this year, on pace for 20. I think the doubles will increase and I could be a little conservative on the slugging%. If he increases his doubles and doesn’t have anymore months with zero walks which effects his OBP, he could easily hold an .850 OPS for the year. For a 25 year old former top prospect in his first full year I think this a star in the making. If he did achieve this then it would be reasonable to expect him to OPS .900+ in his prime years with 35-40 homers

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      4. The key to the comment is what you quoted … i’ll even tell you the key word … “recently”.

        What he’s done on the year is NOT extraordinary, agreed, but what he has done RECENTLY is pretty extraordinary. If you focused more on the words you were trying to beat up, you would not have mentioned anyones “season” based on the comment you quoted

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        2. Josh Hamilton does hot streaks like this and does them better. Of course, Brown may not be done yet so he might complete a Josh Hamilton hot streak yet.

          Would that be “extraordinary”?

          Mark Trumbo had a huge hot couple of months last year and then was dead in the second half of the season. I just don’t think what Brown has done is “extraordinary”. I think someone or two or three guys do something like this almost every year in MLB. If it continues for the rest of the season then yes that would lead to a performance that was extraordinary.

          I’m very disturbed by what I keep hearing though such as what Brown is doing as “extraordinary” and Sarge saying that the Phillies “need another guy on the team” to do what Brown is doing.

          These things are wrong. The Phillies have a lineup full of holes. Really with Utley out and Michael Young not playing and his OBP in free fall before paused, everyone except Brown is a hole in the lineup.

          The Phillies scored seven runs last night and everyone is acting the way Red Sox fans would after their team scored eighteen. For Red Sox fans seven runs produces a yawn.

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          1. If you don’t think his recent streak is extraordinary then you are blind. No one is saying his season will be extraordinary or what the Phillies are doing is extraordinary. We all know he isn’t likely to keep this up for too much longer and we all surely know the Phillies have more than their fair share of issues. But what Dominic Brown has done recently is Extraordinary by any measure or definition.

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          2. You seem to be confusing the words “extraordinary” and “unique.” What Brown has done in the last 10 games and the last month is “extraordinary.” However, it is not “unique.”

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    4. “But that leaves us with a mystery. How can a power hitter with decent (current below average, but not horrible) plate discipline have so few BB of late?”

      Brown hasn’t had the reputation of a power hitter, so pitchers aren’t afraid to challenge him with fastballs over the plate. This will change and then the walks should start coming, assuming he lays off the breaking pitches.

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      1. Exactly right. The question is, will DBrown adjust? Whether or not pitchers will is hardly a debate. Part of that adjustment surely calls for less deliveries in the strike zone

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      2. That’s part of it. Also part is that he was more aggressive in May than April – 38% O-swing%, which is high, even assuming much of it is on hitter’s counts (I didn’t have the breakdowns when I made my original comment).

        Still, zero walks for a guy like Brown (who had at least decent power even before the recent explosion) is odd. As a recent Fangraphs post documented (that’s where I saw the monthly plate discipline breakdowns). 12 HR and zero BB is … well, I would say unprecedented, but the Fangraphs article only looked at the month of May. But no one else (ever) was even close to duplicating that in May, at least..

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  4. This is getting out of hand, just trying to stay excited while it lasts! I havn’t been this excited as a phils fan in a lil while, seems like dom might just be ready to lead the changing of the guard!

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  5. He is exciting right now. I actually held off bath time with the kids until after Domonic Brown hit….sounded so weird that I planned the evening around watching his first at bat. (should have kept the kids up for his 3rd AB!) It is exciting.

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  6. Have you taken a look at castro? His walks are up and his stolen bases have matched last years totals? Do you think that he can hit the big leaguea at some point this year?

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    2. Still profiles as a 4th/5th outfielder, but he would be a cheaper version of Mayberry or a free agent.

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      1. I’ve been thinking about Mayberry as a non-tender candidate because of Castro. Castro can’t really play CF, which is a problem if that were to happen, though Mayberry’s not a dream in CF either. Gillies is around as a true CF backup if Revere is on the DL for any stretch in 2014, so maybe this is something that could happen. Not sure the team woud want to let go of Mayberry’s proven power, though, in favor of Castro’s undisciplined bat. I’d probably still go with JMJ at this point.

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        1. Unless Castro gets a lot better this year, I’d go with Mayberry to start or another established big leaguer. Castro has a long way to go before he’s a solid 4th or 5th outfielder in the majors and I’m not sure the minimal savings would be work the risk with him. Mayberry does a lot of things competently – he’s a bit more valuable than people think and certainly worthy of a roster spot at this point.

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        2. “I’ve been thinking about Mayberry as a non-tender candidate because of”

          I not only think daily about giving STINKBERRY his release but wonder aloud as to why it did not happen two years ago.

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          1. ‘I not only think daily about giving STINKBERRY his release but wonder aloud as to why it did not happen two years ago’…because as TMac says, he is a good kid and comes from a good foundation..

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    4. I hadn’t known this and can’t confirm the stat, but on last nights radio broadcast, the commentator said that most of Castro’s stolen bases have come on delayed steals. That doesn’t necessarily translate to the bigs This season, I think the number given was for only 2 steals which were not delayed steals.

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  7. Starting to wonder what DBrown’s trade value might be come July. Probably will never be higher if June is even half of what May was.

    I’m thrilled about how he is performing but do I think he is or will be an elite hitter? No – I just think he’s happens to be the hottest hitter on the planet at the moment. He’s going to be seeing less and less strikes over the coming weeks and I see only two likely scenarios – the BB rate increases substantially or the BA plummets.

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      1. Not trying to be creative only for the sake of being creative. I’m just peering down the road a few seasons and I’m not sure I see a 3-4 hitter in DBrown. Not on a good team anyway. Brown isn’t going anywhere and I’m not contending otherwise; but you have to think that teams looking our way for a number of pieces may very well bring up his name. Is there a deal that makes sense? Absolutely. It’s the one that ties RHoward’s contract to DBrown’s ankles. I do that one in a heartbeat

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        1. Its not like Brown goes up there hacking at bad pitches. He has an approach that gets him into hitting counts and right now hes swinging every time. Hes not going to be a 10% walk rate guy, but hes going to be over 5%. His BA isnt going to plummet because his BABIP is normalizing right now.

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        2. What does getting rid of Howard’s contract really do?
          Get him out of the lineup? Who gets those ABs on the current team? Mayberry? Ruf? Dugan? Against a RHP who’d you rather have playing?
          Free up money to get another overpriced FA? like Josh Hamilton?
          Just get rid of a club house cancer? like RedSox trading Youkilis for next to nothing?

          I see the issue being that, due to his contract, Howard is going to play every day. IMHO a smart manager would not care about the fans, media, and contract and sit Howard against all lefties, making him a deadly PH in the late innings. Since that is unlikely to happen I can see why trading him might be beneficial to the team.

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          1. Well, this season Utley goes to first and probably is less likely to be injured and increases in defensive value. Second, it’s either Galvis or Hernandez who plays at second. You could also replace with Ruf to see if you have something there. With a middling team, this feels like a good choice to me.

            That said, in the medium run there are always good short run cheap options at first. Lance Berkman’s of the world…

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          2. Brown’s emergence might be the best thing to happen to Howard in a long time. I’d expect that with Dom hitting behind him, Howard is going to see more hittable pitches consistently than he has since Werth hit behind him. It will allow him to be less aggressive at the plate, since he knows pitchers are going to be wary of putting him on for Brown.

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        3. You are as bad as roccom. You want so badly to be right. Now you are figuring out ways to discredit Brown. Even to the point of trading him out of your sight, so you don’t have to see him succeed. Just admit you were wrong, and enjoy the man’s success.

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          1. anonymous your a moron. what do you really think you know. your a young kid who throws shit to the wall ,and hopes something sticks. you probaley are a greek. i kept my word unless my name is mention,by some moron who uses anonymous,

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            1. Well, rroccom, I am not a kid, I am not a geek and I am not a moron and I cannot, for the life of me, understand why you cannot admit that you were wrong about Domonic Brown. When we predict a Phillies player, particularly an apparently nice guy and good citizen, is not going to do well, don’t we want the player to prove us wrong and go out and do well? New flash – Domonic Brown has not failed. Domonic Brown appears to be on the verge of superstardom and he is about as far from a bust as anyone could be. Why don’t you just applaud him and appreciate him rather than attempt to stick with predictions that, obviously, were wrong? I don’t get it.

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            2. Seriously. If you’re rooting against one of the team’s best hopes for the future, what’s the point of being a fan?

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            3. Roccom didn’t call you a geek, he called you a Greek. He probably has something against feta or Mediterranean cuisine in general. Or maybe he disputes the Pythagorean theorem and thinks Plato was a real whackjob.

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          2. I must assume that you’re referring to me here. So I must ask, what exactly am I wrong about? Forget the counter-argument – I truly, truly have no clue what I contended in the first place that would lead you to state that I was “wrong”.

            You should continue to post anonymously as it’s quite clear why you choose to do so in the first place

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        4. “It’s the one that ties RHoward’s contract to DBrown’s ankles. I do that one in a heartbeat”

          You’re in Tampa. This is the Phillies organization and they play in the fourth largest media market in the USA and they’re the only baseball team in town. The Phillies have Dodgers dollars. Only people who are demographically challenged care about Howard’s contract.
          .

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          1. What does Tampa have to do with anything? Are you assuming I’m a Rays fan? For argument’s sake, I spent the first 30 yrs of my life in NE PA and have been a Phillies fan since I was able to speak. I added (Tampa) to my screen name because there were two other Steve’s back in the day (circa 2008) who posted here regularly under a common screen name.

            Now that you have “my” story . . . . what’s your name? And can you send me a pic?

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          2. No, I’d say that anyone that has seen the evidence that the Phillies management will only go over the luxury tax “cap” in exceptional situations (e.g. needing one more player at the trading deadline to hopefully put us over the top) cares about Howard’s contract.

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            1. Right. The idea that Howard’s contract is a non-issue is somewhat ludicrous. Even if they were able to navigate around it, it’s still restrictive to say the least

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            2. the point of contention has always been last year and this year as they reached max value of all of their big contracts except Hamels but he is still high. Going Forward it is not going to stop them from pursuing free agents next off season or the following. The valid argument with Howard’s contract now is that it may help with the determination to stay a middling team and hoping for lightening in a bottle over these next few years. And that probably means that Lee will be a Phillie for his contract. I know this is a sad statement for most of this crowd looking to get new better prospects, but as Larry has stated in the past this is the course that this team should make. The Key being selecting the correct FA players to sign to contracts. At some point in the near future the FA market will normalize and reasonable talent will reach FA status. Player greed will exceed reasonableness at some point.

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            3. You’re essentially correct looking forward, at least in terms of the contract itself (not so much looking backwards; there are moves they maybe could have made in the past. e.g., as problematic as Fielder’s contract might be down the road, I’d much rather have him that Howard right now.)

              Here’s the thing, though. Maybe there aren’t any obvious replacements for Howard right now, but his continued presence on the team, and the contract, prevents them from seeking other options. And at this stage of his career, he is a replacement level player.

              They should AT LEAST bring up Ruf and platoon him with Howard. Won’t happen, but a Ruf/Howard platoon would be better than replacement, maybe even league average.

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            4. You are assuming Ruf will hit like he did last year. Have you checked his AAA stats so far this year? Not in the least bit encouraging. However, A platoon would likely be more productive than what Howard currently provides. But it still wouldn’t be anywhere near league average.

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            5. I would personally place Howard on the DL and bring up Ruf to get some idea on how he would be, and if D. Young keep up this place he is just let go when Howard comes back.

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            6. I’m looking at Howard’s splits. He can still hit right handers. Ruf would not need to set the world on fire for the resulting platoon to be league average.

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            7. “You are assuming Ruf will hit like he did last year. Have you checked his AAA stats so far this year?”

              Darin Ruf has a six-fifty-seven OPS against LHP. He didn’t hit lefties in spring training either. That’s been the biggest difference in Ruf this season. His performance against RHP was excellent in spring training and down from last year in triple-A, but his ability to hit LHP has almost disappeared. Excellent walk rate, but slugging like Ben Revere.

              Last year Ruf was the best hitter on the planet when facing a LHP.

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            8. It’s not that Howard’s contract isn’t a problem, it’s that anything you do to solve it by trading him doesn’t really alleviate the problem. Let’s say Howard is due $100 million and is only worth $20 million over the life of his contract. Unless you find a fool of a GM, you are going to have to take on close to $80 million of Howard’s contract to move him, and since he is moving at a cost to the acquiring team of a little over fair value cost, you aren’t going to get anything other than eyewash in terms of prospects in return — think in terms of we got their first rounder, meet CJ Henry. So you haven’t saved anything other than $20 mill in lux cap space spread over several seasons, but you need a replacement 1B, who will likely eat up that $20 mill. So, now you’ve decided that you’re going to package Dom Brown with Howard to unload the contract. You’re not going to get good prospects back, because what the other team is giving you is let’s call it $80 mill of salary relief. So, you’ve saved money, but you no longer have Dom Brown to build the next core around and are in worse shape than when you started. You likely can’t take your $80 mill and buy a better cornerstone than Brown. All you’ve done is turn Brown’s surplus value between now and when he becomes eligible for FA into up-front salary savings. Likely you win fewer games over the next 5 years than you would have keeping Howard and Brown. We saw this winter that you can’t effectively spend surplus $ on FA. They are way overpriced and the level of talent isn’t all that great. You can’t undo the Howard mistake, you have to live with it. The best you can do is to bite the bullet, platoon Howard, and get the maximum value we can out of the 1B position. Howard’s contract is likely gone before we need the lux cap space to hold onto a current player we want to keep. For next season, we have Halladay’s salary to work with. The Phillies biggest problem now is not a lack of money to spend, it is a shortage of good opportunities to spend the money. If we have good players, we need to keep them. THe best scenario is Howard gets super hot in July, we put him on irrevocable waivers, and some fool claims him to prevent a trade to a rival. Stranger things have happened, although very rarely..

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  10. My post is not directed at any specific individual but man it would be refreshing if more stepped up and said “man did I have that one wrong” or started their statements with the phrase “I could be wrong but I don’t thing so and so is a star player on a big league roster”

    Absolute statements on player projections even the most marginal of players show a lack of intelligence or just your shear nature to be ignorant.

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    1. Well if brown keeps it up. I really had him pegged wrong. biggest thing about his hitting might be joyner, someone got to this kid. about his approach to hitting. He is getting around on a fastball. like i never thought he would. He is so quick on inside pitch which he wasnt before at any time that I had seen him, or its just that he mature and figured it out on his own, dont know the answer. but nice to have a young outfieder to build around.

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      1. Joyner simply tweaked his grip on the bat. Some guys wrap the bat which is how Dom had done prior to Joyner suggesting he go with a palm up palm down grip (Utley)

        You’d be surprised how much quicker that gets your hands to the ball.

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    1. I certainly hope that Zambrano can stabilize the #5 starter position though Tyler Cloyd has done a decent job(other than Boston).

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  12. A few interesting links about Dom’s big month (and the lack of walks):

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/36663/domonic-brown-is-the-greatest-slugger-ever

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/domonic-brown-and-getting-there/

    Personally, I love the aggressiveness. He’s letting bad pitches go by and hitting the ones that are hittable. The BBs will come as pitchers stop giving him fastballs to pull.

    Honestly, the best thing about his breakout is that you’re starting to see some swagger. I’d always heard about the confidence with which he played during his big seasons in the minors, but he always seemed uncomfortable in Philly. Now, he’s owning it. I hope it’s here to stay.

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  13. Too early to talk about extending Brown? I know he has a very short ML track record but it seems like some extensions that get signed early in ML careers can create a lot of value for the club as well as rewarding a young player that is being paid very little.

    Service time always confuses me. Can anyone break down how many Pre-arb and arbitration years Brown has?

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    1. It almost certainly will not happen unless the Phillies grossly overpay him for his pre-free agent years (which is possible). As I recall, he’s a Boras client. Good news is that the Phillies have the money to pay him.

      I think the Phillies need to let things play out this year and probably at least part of next year before they think of approaching him for an extension.

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      1. I think Brown has two more years (this and next) before arbitration and I believe he has this year and four additional seasons before free agency. He’s under team control for a long time. But right now, I’m more concerned with getting Kendrick signed than Brown – Kendrick has become a solid 3 and I think he’ll be very affordable – a true asset.

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        1. Assuming Kendrick pitches like this for this season and next, he’s going to get paid. He’s probably in the same range as Edwin Jackson 4 years/$52M.

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        2. Brown will have two years and 78 days of service after this season. The 78 days is equivalent to a player being brought up in mid-July and finishing the season with the big club.

          I think this means that Brown will miss Super 2 status by just a few days, but it could be close.

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    2. Earliest he can become a FA is 2018 and not arb eligible until 2015 I’d say that is when you talk about an extension.

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    1. Hey all you know it alls (Larry M, Matt Winks etc.) how do you feel about dom right now?!?!?! I thought getting walks were such a big deal!!!!??? I was on these boards preaching that walks don’t mean everything because you could take pitches you could drive. Well Doms proving all of you new school statistic guys wrong. Walks are overrated you guys should feel embarrassed

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      2. Well this is silly. First of all, those guys have probably stuck by believing in Dom more than most. Second, walking doesn’t matter in the short term if you’re hitting. If guys are giving him good pitches and he’s crushing them, no one cares if he walks. The question is, will that be sustainable. The answer is no, but I don’t think that necessarily dooms Brown. I think when pitchers start to pitch around him he will simply be more selective and take walks as he has demonstrated the ability to do in the past.

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        1. Well at least the guy’s got a handle: Bunns. I’m sick of the Anonymous guys launching a scud into the conversation.

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      4. Tempted first to make a snide response, then to make a long serious response, I’ll do neither. The simple fact is that your comment about Brown specifically, and the larger lack of understanding of the importance of BB, represent precisely the same cognitive process – one impervious to evidence and logic. So I won’t waste my breath, other than to say that Brown’s little hot streak doesn’t shed any light at all on the “debate,” such as it is.

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        1. Despite lack of time and the futility of it, a quick substantive response.

          (1) Retrospective evaluation of hitters – no one says that BBs are everything. Brown, despite his relative lack of BBs, on the season is tied for the 15th best hitter in baseball (per wRC+). The issue is undervaluing BBs in making those kinds of comparisons. The guy he is tied with, Coco Crisp, has only 6 HR, but a 15% BB rate.

          (2) Prospectively, at a certain point a player with very poor plate discipline is going to have that deficit exploited by pitchers. This PROBABLY does not apply to Brown, at least hopefully not, but is very relevant to certain players.

          (3) Along those lines, think of the many many predictions about specific players that Matt, myself and others with our mindset have made based on low BB rates. They come true pretty much always. I’ve made some mistakes for sure regarding player evaluation, but I can’t think of a player who I’ve criticized for lack of plate discipline who has proven me wrong. (Anyone remember the debate about Valle?)

          (4) As Chris said, us stat guys have been Brown’s biggest boosters.

          (5) As Chris said, short term versus long term.

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    2. Inch…is slowly moving up and forward. Not by leaps and bounds but by…..oh forget it!

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    3. Wow. Inch with 15 walks and 14 Ks in 28 innings made the all-star team. Well, good for Numata at least.

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  15. Re: Platooning Ruf with Howard from above
    I sort of agree with you Larry I just don’t have a lot of faith in Ruf at this point. It’s also weird that he’s showing reverse splits this season. Although I would expect him to be better against lefties than he currently is this season. But honestly the better platoon option would probably be Mayberry instead of Ruf. I’m more confident in Mayberry’s actual performance in the majors against lefties than Ruf’s potential ability against left handers being realized and surpassing Mayberry’s performance. There would be room for both Mayberry and Ruf if Delmon Young didn’t exist or didn’t get playing time, but that is not currently the case. So if I’m choosing who I’m using to platoon it’s going to be Mayberry.

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    1. “There would be room for both Mayberry and Ruf if Delmon Young didn’t exist or didn’t get playing time”

      There is room.

      BEN REVERE.

      Brown and Mayberry both play CF and they both play the position as well as Revere does.

      Until Ruf gets straightened out though he isn’t going to be in the mix. Ruf’s U-turn in regard to hitting LHP is remarkable. I’ve never seen anything like it. He can’t touch LHP this year, yet last year he was arguably the best hitter vs LHP on the planet.

      Perhaps Mayberry’s big night gets him a couple of starts in CF again. He’s still a terrible player, but just as the presence of Martinez prevented Revere from being the weakest hitter on the team, Revere’s presence makes Mayberry look better.

      The Phillies have really set the bar low for position talent. A champion limbo dancer would not even attempt to get underneath it.

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      2. I’m not sure I get the hate some people have for Revere. Yes he had a horrible April and will never hit for power but he has a BA of .300 and a OBP of .344 since May 1st. Although I don’t have much love for defensive metrics, they all say that he has been very good in the field and I ‘ll trust them at east as much as the anecdotal evidence I have heard that says otherwise from people that just don’t seem to like him. Would people rather have paid $75 million for BJ Upton?

        The same goes for the Mayberry hate. Is it Mayberry’s fault that they keep running him out there against right handed pitchers? They guy is valuable as a platoon/bench bat that is being misused..

        Neither of these two are the reason that the Phillies have been sub-par.

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        2. Mayberry should be our RF. D YOung isn’t replacement value. Mayberry has suffered from being benched in favor of Ibanez and Young, neither of whom was hitting, fielding, or running as well as Mayberry was. That is on Cholly. Mayberry is a streaky guy. He had a really good month or more period during second half of 2011, until the Pence trade came along. He even hit righties better than Ibanez.

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          1. Personally, if a LHP is on the mound, Mayberry is playing….either RF, CF or 1B (sit Howard vs starting LHP), but that will not happen.

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        3. “I’m not sure I get the hate some people have for Revere.”

          I’m not sure I’ll ever get the hate that exists for me, but it’s there and I’m sure it will never go away.

          Your numbers for Revere are pure garbage, just like Revere is. Ben Revere’s OPS is .558.

          Five-Fifty-eight.

          Did you get that?

          Ben Revere’s OPS is FIVE-FIFTY-EIGHT.

          That is the only number that matters. If you do not agree then your opinion is worthless as you do not understand baseball. If you don’t agree that Revere is no more than a pinch runner then your opinion on baseball is worthless.

          “Would people rather have paid $75 million for BJ Upton?”

          The Phillies actually offered the worthless B.J. Upton $55 million. The Braves saved them from that.

          Josh Hamilton is hitting at an unimaginably terrible level for him that has left people dumbfounded, yet his OPS is .662, more than a hundred points higher than Revere.

          Have a nice day.

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  16. Brown’s May and lack of BB’s and then his AB last night where Charlie mistakenly gives him a green light draws the line where both sides are correct. On one side you want a guy with Browns power being aggressive on pitches he can handle. He clearly has exceptional pitch recognition skill and May clearly was a stretch where he was seeing the ball very well and doing damage on pitches he can hit. I think that points to what RAJ was saying about production.

    Conversely Brown clearly got caught up in his own hype on that 3-0 pitch from Qualls. Even if that pitch was a strike it was not a hitters pitch and it certainly was not a pitch you want to swing at 3-0. Basically he got himself out. He needs to take that BB in that situation or move on to the 3-1 pitch.

    And there is no doubt a player in that kind of a hot streak better adjust and realize he is going to get fewer pitches to hit. He will need to change his approach again and take more BB. He will need to understand his own tape to understand how they will try to pitch him going forward.

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    1. He’s a young player who got caught up in the moment and it was a good pitch that started over the meat of the plate and then tailed away. Not a big deal IMO

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        1. the green light was not the problem.These guys have had green lights on 3-0 most of their careers. Brown just had a bad read on the right type of pitch.

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  17. “Conversely Brown clearly got caught up in his own hype on that 3-0 pitch from Qualls. Even if that pitch was a strike it was not a hitters pitch and it certainly was not a pitch you want to swing at 3-0. Basically he got himself out. He needs to take that BB in that situation or move on to the 3-1 pitch.”

    Agreed, but, given his recent success, can you blame him? Brown is apparently very diligent about rreviewing his at bats. And he really does have a good eye and plate discipline – May aside. I expect the walks to pick up soon as he becomes more selective while they pitch around him. If he continues to hit like this, he could easily have weeks where he walks 5 or 6 times – his history at the plate and the newfound respect I believe he has earned suggests that, over time, the walks will normalize to productive levels.

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    1. I am with you, if he keeps his ISO and BABIP at it’s current level, he’ll end the year with a BB% around 8%, maybe better. I’m not worried about the walks at all.

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  18. Nice to see the Phils finally give Hamels some run support this afternoon. And yes, in case you were wondering, Dom Brown failed to draw a walk. (He did hit No. 18, though). 😉

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  19. Once Carlos Zambrano comes on board, the ship will sail straight ahead to the finish.
    I see them in the playoffs with Zambrano, Hamels, Lee leading the way and Kendrick making major contributions.

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  20. Apropos of nothing: why is it that so many outfielders struggle to play the outfield in Philly? Dom Brown when he first came up was pretty bad, although you did not hear about it much in his minor league career. Hunter Pence couldn’t catch the ball in right field here, but seemed to be fine in Houston and was good enough to win the World Series in San Fran. Ben Revere arrived here with a reputation of being this amazing fielder, and indeed, he makes some nice plays, but he seems to misjudge an awful lot of balls out there, resulting in too many gift hits. Do the Phillies have a fielding coach?

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    1. Perhaps its the wind patterns coming off Girard Point…intersection of the Delaware River and the Schuykill.(sp) River, the old Hog Island. Next time you go to the game…go all the way up to the last top row of the park between home plate and first base and stand up against the cyclone fence, Its a variable wind tunnel.

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  22. I Watch this team. and I realize that they have to move howard and his contract,. They might have to eat the whole contract. he is just lost it and is horrbile. teams just continue to throw him the same pattern, of pitchers and he doesnt adjust, hopefull the owners will eat the contract and move him for nothing, get him out of the clubhouse. I think now they must move rollins, utley, but keep lee. because if they can sign a outfielder who can hit, with the pitching they have, they can compete. delmon young is giving them nothing,. but a good four hitter to me changes this whole lineup. right now i would try ruf at first. sit howard, and see if we can get some production.

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    1. The Original Core Three:
      1. Ruben will have to move Manuel prior to moving Howard. Unless Ruben believes Charlie will be gone after this year. Right nw, it appears that way with Ryne Sandberg coming in.
      2. I see only one team being able to AFFORD Howard, and possibly have a NEED for Howard. The Texas Rangers. But they will need to slump in June/July before they try to get him. And the return will probably be only ONE major prospect…4/5 through 10 in their system, and maybe a tier two prospect..15 through 20 in their system. After all, they may haver to pick up the majority of that contract..
      3. Apparently, Rollins will not go anywhere unless it is home to the Bay area. He can veto any trade.
      4. Utley, I offer the qualifying obligatory $13.3M after the season. If he goes elsewhere we get a supp draft choice. If he stays, come next July a deadline deal can be addressed then if need be.

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      1. So on utley who i love, you want to risk 13 million? on a guy who is always hurt. What team will give up a draft choice for a injury player. rollins i could go either way, on, seeing he only has one more year. but if we can move him. dont care what we get back. just free up the money. now howard i would take nothing back, i just want to move as much as that contract as possible. hoping to give ruf a chance, and maybe we can get a free agent outfielder, who can help. delmon young is terrible. I would keep lee, because with lee and kenrick and hamels, and some offense, you can be pretty good. imo

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        1. ‘So on utley who i love, you want to risk 13 million?’…its one year, plus, he has no trade restrictions after a QualOffer and you can still move him next July as a rental. to a contender

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      2. There is no way you could get a top prospect from Texas for Howard, I know that it is repeated over and over again, but if you trade Howard you will need to either need to just pay some of the salary and get nothing or package one of your assets to get them to take him back. Go look at the Vernon Wells trade, that is best case scenario.

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        1. Who said top prospect! A five thru ten prospect in their system, is not the top. You could get someone like Lewis Brinson, and he is a toolsy, raw, K artist, right now.

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          1. Brinson is a top prospect. BP had him in the Top 100, he was a first round pick last year. Think of it this way, would you trade Roman Quinn right now for Howard and his contract. That is the trade you are proposing.

            Who would you trade for Howard from the Phillies system?

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            1. Do not see Brinson as top 100 now. He will fall below that after this year. His K rate of over 30% and his OPS are trending negatively at this point. He has youth and and the high pick legacy going for him now.
              Then again, we agree to disagree on the worth and value in a return for Howard.

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  23. Other GM’s see what we see with Howard. were not fooling anybody. We would need to pay 75% of his salary just to get a couple middling prospects. Maybe along the lines of a caesar H. and a gabriel Lino.

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    1. They also very well know, Howard’s productive months are August and September, so a GM like Jon Daniels may want that if he believes it will get his team added value and momemtum going into the playoffs.

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  24. Howard and $45 mil may get a team interested if Howard can somehow manage an OPS north of .850 for the next 7 weeks, and provided there is such a team desperate enough to absorb the balance then remaining. Still, so many ‘immovable’ contracts have been moved before. Expecting prospects in return is a bit unfathomable though. The value the Phils would get in return is the transfer of obligations under Howard’s contract to another team, and even then, only partially so, Still, I would contend that moving Howard, even at the cost of paying $45 mil for someone who no longer plays for you, is a better proposition that any prospects we could reasonably (or unreasonably) stand to attain in return. I love the big fella, he did a hell of a lot for this franchise, but . . . .

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