Previewing the upcoming Rule 5 draft

Rule 5 Draft

We’ve already been over who the Phillies have protected and left unprotected here. Jiwan James is the big name the Phillies are hoping to sneak through. The Phillies have been very active in recent years, always selecting at least one guy, and in the last two seasons, they’ve kept their guy (Mini Mart, Herndon) the full season and retained them moving forward, so you can assume they will take someone again this year. If they do, here are my suggestions for guys they should look at.

Bryce Stowell, RHP (CLE) – Stowell has a big arm, as he used to consistently sit in the high 90s, but has had some injury trouble recently and is now down in the 92-95 range consistently. Still, if he’s past his injury issues, he has a special arm and could fit in well in the middle of the bullpen. Like we saw with Herndon, stashing a reliever as your 25 man is pretty easy. The Phillies will have competition in the bullpen, and Stowell could fit in there. Over the last 2 seasons between A+/AA/AAA he’s put up this line: 106 IP – 63 H – 57 BB – 159 K. Still a little raw, but plenty of upside. Video here

Ryan Flaherty, INF (CHC) – Flaherty is the victim of a numbers game, as the Cubs have a bunch of high ceiling/bonus baby infielders they need to protect and he doesn’t really have a set position. In 2011 he played 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, RF and LF. That’s versatility. He hit .305/.384/.523 at AA before struggling a bit in AAA. He has lefthanded power and can play all over the field, so if the Phillies were looking for another bench bat, he’d be a good guy to look at. I suspect that he’ll get taken before the Phillies pick. Grainy video here.

Nick Barnese, RHP (TAM) – Barnese was a high ranked prospect as recently as 2 years ago, but like most Rays pitchers, he’s moved very slowly through the system and now must be protected. He doesn’t turn 23 until January, and has moved one level at a time since being drafted. He spent 2011 in AA and saw his walk rate jump a bit while his K rate dipped slightly. His groundball rate has dropped each year since turning pro, but was still a respectable 47% in 2011. He may have just gotten a bit stale in Tampa, or his stuff might have dropped overall. There’s only one way to find out…

Philippe Valiquette, LHP (CIN) – He can’t seem to stay healthy, but when he’s on the mound he throws 97-99 from the left side. Sometimes he knows where its going, other times he doesn’t. But that kind of arm strength is worth a $50,000 flier, and if he’s injured/sucks, you get half of that back when you offer him back to Cincinnati. If he can stay healthy and harness his stuff, he has impact reliever possibility…kind of like Antonio Bastardo at this time last year. Plus, collecting guys named Philippe (and all their alternate spellings) should be an organizational priority.

Pat Venditte, P (NYY) – He’s a switch pitcher. Enough said. Video.

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP (CHC) – Had Tommy John Surgery, but bounced back nicely in 2011 and posted this line in A+: 127.2 IP (career high) – 131 H – 43 BB – 117 K. Both his BB and K rates were improved from 2010 when he was recovering from surgery and he allowed only 10 HR last year with a 49% groundball rate. Would certainly be an interesting guy to look at as a reliever, though he’s been a career starter. He has four pitches, and his fastball sits in the 91-94 range as a starter, which could tick up in relief, and his change and curve are both solid average pitches.

Of course the Phillies don’t ask me for advice, and at this time last year I wasn’t writing up a piece on how they should take Micahel Martinez. So, we’ll see what happens.

40 thoughts on “Previewing the upcoming Rule 5 draft”

  5. I like the lefty that throws heat. Stash him on the DL or use in mop up then send him down in 2012 to work on control.

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        1. Correct. It’s just delaying the inevitable. If you stash him on the DL in 2011, it just means he needs to spend 2012 on the 25 man roster. Which makes sense, otherwise damn near every Rule V guy would just go on the DL.

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  7. The Phillies signed Laynce Nix to a 2 year deal. It’ll probably become official after the rule 5 so it wouldn’t fill a roster spot, but it still fills a crucial spot on the 25 man roster. I don’t see room for a position player this year, though I could see the Phillies taking a flyer on a pitcher.

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    2. Is he the one from Delaware? I really like to see these signings of local guys to let them finish out their careers playing for the hometown team. I wonder how much Nix has left in the tank at this point though.

      In the Rule 5, I say select the switch pitcher. Really, it seems like an asset to have a guy that doesn’t have to go out for a pitching replacement when coaches play matchups. Honestly though, this looks like a very solid Rule 5 class. I’d be happy with the Phillies drafting any of the above players PP listed but especially with Stowell or Valiquette given their high potential. It’d be interesting to see whether or not they’d draft Flaherty over a pitcher if he’s still available when they pick.

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        1. Ah yeah. Okay, well then now I really don’t get this signing. He can hit for power, sure, but he’s definitely not a very consistent hitter. Then again, this is exactly what the Phillies always do. I just wish they would actually get a guy who can hit for average to put on their bench. More times than not, these “power” guys signed to the Phillies bench do little else but get out.

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  8. You already touched on this, but I say no to Philippe Valiquette because his first name is like Aumont’s and his last name is like Valle’s.

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  9. I don’t think the pronunciation for Valiquette and Valle are anything alike except for the V so I see no qualms there.

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    1. Two L’s in spanish would be pronounced as a “Y”, so I would assume it’s pronounced Vai-Yay, as oppossed to valley.

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  11. Check this one out:

    The Marlins just signed Jose Reyes, SS, to a 6 year $106 Mil deal.

    Hanley Ramirez does NOT want to play their 3rd base. The Msarlins might weant to unload his contract,…so…how about Ramirez instead of J-Roll who now sees the Reyes contract and as the next best SS available, he will raise his asking price in years and amounts.

    Ramirez for SS…?

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    1. I’m in…..lets offer Wilson Valdez to start, then we can add Martinez and Bowker to seal the deal. Win win for everyone.

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    2. Of course I’d love to have Hanley, but it would cost the farm to get him. Reyes really reminds me a lot of J-Roll when he was younger. Not sure who Hanley reminds me of but he’s a damn good player nonetheless. The funny thing is, I was thinking the exact same thing you were when I heard that the Marlins(seriously, is that not ridiculous?) signed Reyes to that fat contract.

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  12. Venditte is available? Finally, Ruben can start building the novelty bullpen of my dreams! Savery to bat and relieve, Venditte to switch pitch, and a man named Tony the Bastard

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    1. Nice link, thanks.

      2 players I have been intersted in for a while are:

      Marquez Smith (Cubs – 27) 3B/2B – .282/.355/.475, 33 RTZ at 3B, .778 OPS at AAA in ’11
      Can play very well at both positions, solid bat, also OF. This would be a great pick up, did AAA 2 years and has always hit and is not a bad fielder. Wiggenton clone so he will not be coming here.

      Ethan Martin (LAD)
      Martin and his brother ( a catcher) got in trouble in rural Georgia during a hign school play off game for getting mad at an umpire and concocting their own revenge as Martin’s brother let a 95 mph fast ball from his brother go straight through and hit the umpire whom they thought was calling a bad game.
      Suspensions were handed out.
      $4,000,000 arm, 10 cent head. But still, a $4,000,000 arm and young.

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  15. I live on Staten Island so I’ve actually seen Venditte pitch. Once he was called in against a switch-hitting PH. It was very funny. The pitcher, incidently, gets the last switch in such a confrontation, and the batter had to bat lefty against a lefty. IIRC he is more of a finesse pitcher from one side and more of a power pitcher from the other, but don’t ask me which. And he sports a really cool switchable glove.

    If Flaherty’s available I’d go that way.

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  16. Having seen marfis’ link (thanks), I could see the Phils heading toward one of the tall RHP options on that list, like Brett Lorin or Brad Meyers. But I’d bet they’re salivating over the chance that Tim Alderson might be availble. He’s a tall pitcher AND a former first round pick. Exactly the kind of guy they usually pick up mid-season as a reclamation project.

    I was also struck by how the scouting capsules make each of the players sound like sure thing, winners who can’t miss being future, um, well, bench help. They all have these incredible abilities and then, in the last sentence, there’s something about being, like 4 OFs or UTs or maybe some day developing into a set up guy. Maybe. Very funny stuff because it’s written quite seriously. (And right, in that the best most of these guys can hope for is to be on a MLB bench some day.)

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    1. Roberto Clemente was a Rule 5 guy……’great arm, great glove but a free swinger’. Three thousand hits later he is in the HOF.

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  17. The problem with the Rule 5 draft is that the rules were changed a couple years ago to add a year before eligibility. The talent pool is absolutely gutted. Guys like Clemente wouldn’t be eligible under the new rules. I don’t see a player that helps us this year, and 30 picks deep into the draft I don’t see a player with better long term prospects than someone we already have.

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