88 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 24 August 2011

  1. There was some really good pitching tonight from Pettibone, Hyatt, Cisco, DeFratus, Biddle, and Neris. Pointer has five home runs in the GCL. Nice first year. Williamsport put on a great rally in the ninth, only to fall one run short. Franco with two doubles and Martinez with four hits stood out. Cody Overbeck’s three run home run and Galvis’ three hits and .325 average in AAA were impressive.

  2. Lots of good things today. Galvis with three hits in the leadoff spot, De Fratus with another save, nice pitching from Biddle and Pettibone. Anyone know when some of the new guys (Larry Greene, Roman Quinn, etc.) will start?

    1. I saw a report here that they would not play in games because the season will end next week. They will work at the complex and we will see them next year.

  3. I for one would not mind Galvis playoff standby roster.I think he has to be protected this year anyway. Nice night for the above pitchers.

  4. A couple of interesting tidbits:

    Galvia now outhitting D. Brown….325 to .267;and

    Biddle has given up HRs at the rate of one (!) every twenty-five (25) innings. That has got to bhe one of THE best rates.

    Biddle: my choice in 2010 as their best #1 choice in the last several years!

    NOW #1 OF ALL OUR PROSPECTS!

  5. Galvis seemingly “coming of age” at age 22 (?) enhances the possibility that J-Roll, again DLed, might not be coming back in ’12.

    A shame that time and effort has taken such much of J-Roll’s body parts, but to give him a high dollar multi-year deal seems questionable with Galvis coming on which would save significant salary, about $10 million/year.

    J-Roll has been one of my favorite Phils, but it may be time to move on.

    1. I’m not sure we’re there yet Art. If anything, Rollins latest trip to the DL might have pushed a few mil to the side of the Phillies. The development of Galvis has to be one of the top Pharm stories this year, but I’m not ready to see him get 500ABs on a championship caliber team. He’s only 21 and will play all of next season at age 22.

      I’d like to see the Phils resign Rollins for 3 more years. Galvis will see plenty of time over that period before taking over full-time at age 25.

      1. Rollins, at 33, may want more then 3 years since it will be his last big contract—then he becomes the yearly ‘Edgar Renteria type’ from year to year and club to club..

      1. I think the signing of Jimmy Rollins to a 3 year contract in the $11-13 million range will give the Phillies a lot of flexibility. Although third base is not his ideal desitination, if his production is still good, allowing Jimmy to play third, at least from time to time or in the last year or two of the contract, with Galvis at shortstop, would give them tremendous left side defense. I think Galvis could benefit from more strength training in the offseason and another half season at AAA, but he has turned into a very interesting prospect. Pretty amazing.

        1. Thats a thought—–in his third year of the contract—and there seems to be more 35- year old third basemen then 35-year old shortstops.

          1. I put my good name and reputation on the line months ago suggesting this move to 3B in a few years and was criticized loudly. I’m glad to see some of you warming to the idea.

            1. You may have a good name, but it is not original.

              This might work in theory, but let’s hope we are not paying Rollins $13 mil a year to move to 3B in the middle of his contract. Seems like that could be money better spent, but who knows what he will be able to get in free agency. We may see him gone like Rowand and Werth before him, with an offer that is too good to not move elsewhere.

  6. Pointer homers again..
    Four hits for H. Martinez.
    Biddle wild but only surrendered one hit.
    Great start for Pettibone. Three baserunners, six strikeouts. Really great.
    Three hits including a double for Galvis. Overbeck homers. Good appearance for DeFratus.

  7. Great night all around for the system, particularly Galvis, Biddle, HMart and Pointer. I got excited to see Franco finally with a multiple hit before I realized he was sent back down to WPT. He had a rough go at Lakewood so hopefully this will help his confidence and get him back on track.

  8. In the Jim Callis prospect chat posted today on Baseball America.com he stated his belief that the highest ceiling Phillies draftees are Larry Greene and Kenny Giles. interesting to see these.names, especially Giles. Not that I wasn’t going to watch his progress, but this adds a bit of interest.

    1. Giles could be the steal of the entire draft. As I understand it, prior to the draft, there were significant questions about how raw he was, but, after the draft and before he signed, he came on very strong in amateur play. He is a big-armed kid with a big upside in the tradition of Jason Knapp and Jarred Cosart. I’d love to have 2 or 3 kids like that in every draft. Some flame out or get injured and some turn into Josh Johnson.

        1. It was just an example, not an exclusive list. I could have said John Smoltz (22nd round pick), or Roy Oswalt (23rd round pick), or Jack Morris (5th round pick) or Tommy Hanson (22nd round pick) or Nolan Ryan (12th round pick). So, no, Josh Johnson is not the only example of a raw mid to late round pick with a great arm who turned into a star – there are numerous others.

          1. Catch………and how could you forget our local favorite in the 6th round by the Cubbies—Jaime Moyer.

            1. Because he was not the type of player I was referring to. I love JM, but nobody would ever accuse him of having a great arm.

  9. Middle infield prospect depth is looking pretty good. In no particular oder

    SS: Galvis, Duran, Miramontes, Black, Nerio Rios, Greene, Gustavo Gonzalez, Villalobos, Hanzawa, VSL also has Jair Morelos, Deiber Olivera. DSL has Berroa, Cardoza, Angelo Mora.

    2B: H. Garcia (remember him?), C. Hernandez, Schoenberger, Alonzo, Perdomo, Asche, Valenzuela. VSL has Astudillo, Chavez & Alexander Perdomo. DSL has Fernando Rios & Robinson Torres.

    There is also Mitchell Walding and possibly Roman Quinn, if he ends up in the Infield. I don’t think so but he could.

    You start slotting them or releasing them. There is a pretty big void at the top of the minors. Galvis and Garcia are the only guys in AA or better. Garcia’s been out the whole year. That sets him back. Hanzawa is not looking like a guy who will ever move to a top prospect but his glove is supposed to be very good. It will be interesting to slot A+ all the way to GCL.

    Cesar will go to Reading, if not at the start of next year then quickly thereafter. Garcia will be pushed early. In A+ Schoenberger will have to prove himself or be gone. Alonzo intrigues me. He’s batting .333 with a .452 OBP. He has 23 BBs to 14Ks. You don’t see that often. He can play 2B or 3B. Where do you slot him? Will Asche end up in LKW? Should he? Where do you put Valenzuela? Do you push him to LKW? Perdomo goes wherever a utility guy is needed or he’s released.

    Duran will go to CLW. I’d like to see him settle in as a good hitter and reduce the errors. It will happen. Who opens in LKW next year? Black, Rios (if he’s healthy), Tyler Greene? Does Miramontes get a further look? I like his story and wouldn’t mind giving him another year. Looks like someone has to step up.

    Down lower there are a lot of guys for a few slots. Walding has to be played. Villalobos has done a good job, Gonzalez gets another look. how about some of thise young infielders in DSL and VSL. Cardoza and Mora are 17 and 18 respectively. They are both switch-hitters. Will they be pushed to GCL Berroa is older but has shown some ability. How about Astudillo? He batred .361 in 52 games but weirdest stat is he only K’ed 2 times. Can they find a spot for him somewhere?

    Some of these guys could end up at 3B or possibly 1B or the OF. But there are some interesting guys in there. Too bad they aren’t all fighting for spots at Reading and LHV. Disclaimer: Sorry if my name spelling is not quite accurate.

    1. Very nice post, Bellman. Some thoughts:

      –HGarcia coming back to form next year will be huge. Solid utility prospect, emergency starter, maybe even starter for a lower team. Probably at 2B, but could fill in at 3B, LF.

      –Alonso (S, not Z) should hit thrid at C’water next year. If he keeps mashing he could see Reading. If he keeps mashing there in late 2012 or in 2013, then he’s a prospect, a dangerous bat. I’d like to get a better read on his fielding from those who attend L’wood games. Will be fun to follow this guy.

      –CesarH will be a nice story to watch. If he hits a little at Reading, that’s big.

      –Which of the background guys (Rios, Pointer, Duran, etc.) will show more in 2012 at a higher level. Lots of good athletes, exciting to follow the guys the Phils draft. VERY different from past days when we had a lot of lower-ceiling, slow-footed college guys who could hit .270, but not much else.

      –I’m liking GCL this year: Pointer, Musser, Stewart, Valenzuela, a couple others–even without mentioning this year’s draftees. Lots of guys to follow.

      –Can’t wait to see the new CF from Ven. at GCL

      1. DiaDerby……’Can’t wait to see the new CF from Ven. at GCL’—do you mean C.Tocci? If so, I believe at 16 he will be in the VSL next year—may be wrong on that however.

        1. I think DD is talking about Diego Gonzalez. He batted .345 in his first year. He’s 20 years old but in his first year of pro-ball. Although he might be talking about new signee Tocci. I wonder if the Phils will bring Tocci state-side like they did with Santana when he signed?

          1. Oops, DD did say VSL not DSL. that would turn me to Herlis Rodriguez. He’s almost as young as Tocci. He turned 17 in June and batted .289 with 2 HRs and 19 RBIs. He was hitting over .400 for quite a while earlier in the year. He was mentioned so much that Ketch had to add him to his daily watch list.

  10. Despite our trades, what a great system we have. We have potential replacements (Galvis and Aumont/DeFrautus) for our possible vacancies (Rollins/Madsen).. Mayberry’s development has been huge for the organization from a payroll standpoint. If we are able to skate by with not resigning JRoll and Madsen.. it will make resigning Cole at Cliff Lee dollars quite possible. (sorry to mix in phillies talk but there is overlap sometimes)

    Excited to see May in AA and Biddle in Clearwater. Having two potential aces in the works after all of those trades is a great thing.

  11. nick thought I read greene and quinn will not see action in gcl. but will go to instrucional fall league.

  12. Franco likes the NPL apparently. Harold however is the man to watch. My excitment for Galvis is tempered. I’d want to see him demonstrate it at least one more season at AAA before I am completely comfortable naming him our SS of the future.

    I think you’d be crazy not to bring back JROLL for 3 more years. The intangibles he brings to the club far out weigh the numbers. The guy is a winner, a vocal leader in the club house. We have this window to win multiple championships I want him on my team.

    Agreed at some point you have to turn the page but not yet.

    1. As for Rollins, obviously (well, obvious to most) he should come back if his contract demands are reasonable, but are they? None of us know. I wouldn’t go 4 years, and I would hesitate to do 3/42. But given the shortage of shortstops, I could see a team giving him 4 years or 3/42.

      I agree Galvis isn’t ready, though I am a late but enthusiastic convert to seeing him as a real prospect. I do think it’s interesting that his AAA performance has increased the enthusiasm for him on this site. Now don’t get me wrong, it’s great to see him doing well against probably better competition, but we see another example of people placing too much weight on BA. Not to knock him – it is a small sample and again it is nice to see him holding his own at a higher level – but his AAA hitting performance is not as impressive as his AA hitting performance. Few walks, the mid range power he demonstrated in Reading is not there, and the BA is not sustainable.

  13. From an emotional and performance POV, I agree we need Jimmy in Philly. But the dollars and years may not work out. Could be up to Jimmy to provide the dollar/year discount to make the Phils’ budget work. I also agree Galvis would benefit from a full year at AAA. If we can’t sign Rollins, we should probably sign a stopgap SS to a 1-yr contract.

    1. There’s a good market for SS, Rollins will surely get more years than the Phillies can offer.

      Can’t help but think what Garcia could have been next year if not for the injury. This time next year will be telling at 3B and SS in terms of the system.

  14. Can we start talking about Overbeck again? I realize that he’s not a young buck, but he took awhile to adjust last year when moved to Reading, and he has slowly adjusted to AAA, and his combined numbers are fantastic. Not saying he will be a star, but just that he deserves some more attention

  15. It is easy to get excited all over again, when you see the cupboards being restocked with prospects.

    #1. Is there a place where you can see all the LA signings the Phillies have made going way back? Or a list of signings that are currently still in the system? and/or MLB?

    #2. Let’s also not forget the fallen. We still have many prospects that have not played at all or have missed a good portion of the season due to injury, etc. Whom do you think has the best upside? The list I can think includes (If I am missing anyone please add him):

    Tyson Gillies
    Leandro Castro
    Jordan Ellis
    Albert Cartwright
    Harold Garcia
    Franklyn Vargas
    Nerio Rios
    Siulman Lebron
    Kevin Walter
    Jake Smith
    Gauntlett Eldemire
    Nicholas Hernandez
    Luis Paulino
    Marek Minarik
    Matthew Way
    Chris Frey
    Drew Naylor

    1. Walter is probably the most interesting, if only we knew what was wrong with him. Eldemire hasn’t played a game and is already too old for any conceivable league he could start in next season (Lakewood, I guess); he’ll be a late bloomer, if he blooms at all. Gillies remains the wildcard, but you can’t really count on his legs to be there, can you?

      Garcia and Castro are the most likely big-leaguers on the list, but both are probably extra guys in the end, and that’s assuming they come back healthy.

    2. If I remember correctly, when we acquired Gillies, he was not that highly regarded by sources such as BA and John Sickels. Since the acquisition, he has done nothing.

      Gillies has a lot of work to do to establish himself as a legitimate prospect.

  16. To partly answer my own question I found these signings right here on PP… Any others to consider?

    OF Carlos Tocci – 16 (Venezuela, $759,000)
    LHP Lino Martinez – 17 (Venezuela, $325,000)
    RHP Miguel Nuñez – 17 (D.R.; $220,000)
    3B Maikel Franco – 17 (D.R.; $100,000)
    RHP Marek Minarik – 16 (Czech Republic, Bonus Unknown)
    RHP Josh Warner – 17 ((Australia; Bonus Unknown)
    SS Francisco Silva – 16 (Venezuela, $200,000)
    SS Anderson Gonzalez – 16 (Venezuela, $300,000)
    LHP Franklyn Zavala – 16 (D.R., $330,000)

      1. Anderson Gonzalez and Fransisco Silva’s bonuses were cut down to 10K each once they found out they were 19 years old (instead of 16). They saved about 500K on their international budget from last year. That is probably why they spent 759K this year.

    1. Franklyn Zavala=Franklyn Vargas—–we went through the name change yesterday at length on another thread.

  17. Has there been an Eldemire sighting? That is one helluva list. Seems like that list could provide a complete team of the walking wounded.

    How many will make it back to play-ability?

    Has Walter thrown ANY pitches in pro competition, ever?

    Some names on that list are unfamiliar from not being listed in any games as if they had slipped through some cracks and are GONE.Seems like if they all came back and played, the Phils would have to provide another minor lg team to get them all playing time.

    Thanks for pointing this out.

    P.S. One of the policies of the Phils development people is to honor and encourage competition within the organization. Seems like the just-drafted group of infielders will provide an interesting and fierce competition for positions out of which would emerge the best of them.

  18. Don’t forget that one of the ways prospects fail is that their bodies can’t deal with the rigors of daily baseball. So to say that our farm system is really stronger than it looks because of all the injuries is unrealisitc. Some of these guys are never going to be able to be healthy.

  19. Interesting comment from KG in a chat-like thing he’s doing today. Not clear if this is an upgrade of May or a downgrade of Cosart…

    ethanwitte
    (46653)…Trevor May – better prospect than his former teammate, Cosart?…

    Aug 25, 2011 09:56 Kevin Goldstein
    BP staff
    (27460)…No, but it’s close.

    1. Was surprised to see him on the list of “second half prospects”–thought May had been fairly excellent all season. Still, it’s a nice compliment to the kid, though I think the ceiling is clearly lower than Cosart’s.

      Goldstein also opined that Galvis has a real shot at being the opening day 2012 shortstop in Philadelphia, and that Colvin’s struggles this year are basically a product of health (add him to the wounded list above, maybe?). This is certainly going to be an interesting Reader Top 30 season . . .

      1. I’ve noticed these minor league gurus tend to have very little ability when it comes to when players stick in the majors… So, if what he’s saying is he thinks Glavis can be a full time starting short stop on a likely world series team, I have to disagree. He’s atleast 2 years away from a full time job on this team. Add 20lbs of muscle this off season, and have it actually translate into hitting ~15 Hr’s at the major league level, maybe i’ll change my tune.

        1. Well … I do think he’s wrong. Two buts:

          (1) If Rollins’ leaves, the other options might be slim. I’d hope the Phillies could find a decent stop gap, but of players currently in the organization Galvis would be the best option.
          (2) Another 20 pounds of muscle? Unlikely and possibly counterproductive. He doesn’t have to be a 15 HR guy to be a regular, even on a WS contender.

          Regarding point 2, pre-season a lot of people were comparing him to Andrus. I didn’t like the comp, because (a) it didn’t look like Galvis was that good, and (b) Andrus, based on 2010, seemed a borderline regular himself. But three things happened – Andrus rebounded, Galvis took a huge step forward, and league hitting declined. Galvis is not guaranteed to match Andrus, but IMO that’s what we should hope for. And Andrus doesn’t have 15 career HR, let alone in a single season.

          1. We get zero HR production from our 3rd basemen, Utley and Howard have had year over year over year declining power, I disagree, I think we need some power from our SS right now.

            If you were a typical team, I would expect the following HR totals by position (not by player) given being in the top 5 in payroll.

            1B – 35
            2B – 15
            3B – 25
            SS – 12
            C – 12
            LF – 30
            RF – 25
            CF – 17

            This totals 171 HR’s for a team over the course of 162 games. Good enough for 8th place in MLB based on 2010 numbers.

            The Phillies offensive HR production by position is more likely to be as follows:

            1B – 35 (Howards power production is on the decline, currently at 27 for all players)
            2B – 13 (Currently only 9 on the year, all by Utley)
            3B – 8 (Currently only 6, but I’m assuming 2 more will be hit from this position)
            SS – 17 (currently at 14, but with jimmy hurt, i don’t expect much more production)
            C – 7 (currently at 6 and only 4 by ruiz)
            LF – 24 (currently at 19 between ibanez and JMJ)
            RF – 23 (currently at 18)
            CF – 23 (currently at 18)

            So, in light of the above, the phillies produce average results from 1B/2B/RF, above average in CF and SS, below average in 3B, LF (sort of), and catcher.

            By swapping Jroll for Glavis, SS production will go from being a well above average power producer to well below average. I understand the defense, but unless we’re magically going to gain power production at 3B or LF (the other positions on the roster are pretty much set in stone), using glavis at SS is a horrible idea.

            1. Oh, and before anyone jumps on me, i know power production isn’t the only important thing. That said, it is still a valuable metric when valuing a teams over-all offense. The best teams in the league have power, and lots of it.

            2. I just think that’s a horrible way to analyze the situation. You deserve to be jumped on frankly. SS is the last place where you want to prioritize power, given the current state of the position.* Now, that doesn’t mean you ignore HR when looking for a SS, but given what’s out there, most teams – even contending teams – should be thrilled with a guy like Andrus.

              More to the point, you work with the resources you have. Galvis may or may not be the answer, but trying to make him into a 15 HR guy by adding even more muscle (and likely compromising his fielding) – or ruling him out as a potential regular because he isn’t (and never will) be a 15 HR guy – would be a waste or organizational resources.

              *Right now you have 7 SS projected to reach 15 HR. They are all good SS – but many of the guys who aren’t projected to hit 15 HR are also good SS.

            3. My comment about him adding 20 lbs was less of a product of me really believing that and more to prove a point. You say 7 short stops are going to produce 15 or more home runs. that’s fine. What I am saying, and what you didn’t respond to was that the phillies can ill afford to lose what would likely be 10-12 HR’s from their overall team production. That’s what I’m saying.

              I’m more then happy to lose 10-12 HR’s at SS if you pick it up elsewhere. And it should be done in the most economical way. If that’s resigning Rroll or picking up someone new to field 3B i’m fine with that.

            4. You seem to have left out home runs from the bench. Not all home runs will be produced by the 8 position players. Even pitchers can hit home runs.

            5. Supra, I didn’t “respond” directly to your argument because it is non-sensical analysis. That’s not a sensible way to look at team hitting performance, period. I mean, by your logic, if the Yankees offered us Brett Gardner in exchange for Raul Ibanez, we should turn them down because we “can’t afford” to lose the roughly 10 to 15 extra HR that Ibanez supplies.

              I mean, you could say the Phillies can’t afford to lose Rollins SB. Or doubles. Or defense. And so on. So where does that leave us … we need to get a SS replacement who will be his equal or better in every category? That wouldn’t make sense in any case, but especially when you’re dealing with a player of Rollins’ quality. He is the best SS in Phillies’ history, and chances are that, unfortunately, our next SS won’t be as good. So the standard “must be as good as Rollins” is unreasonable. But even more unreasonable – and, frankly, absurd – is the standard “must hit as many HR as Rollins.” Heck, by your “logic” Jose Reyes would be an inadequate replacement for Rollins. Not that I think they should sign Reyes – too expensive – but when the logical conclusion of your argument is that Jose Reyes is an inadequate replacement for Rollins, you know that there is a problem with your argument.

              And again, that doesn’t mean that Galvis is ready. But if you told me that Galvis would match Elvis Andrus – he of the 9 career HR – I’d take that in a hearbeat.

  20. Ho-hum…another 7 innings and no runs for Julio Rodriguez…also 8ks…he is now 16-7 with 2.84 ERA and 150ks in 145 innings..when is he going to get the love…the experts like JC Ramirez over him…He has gotten people out at each level. Don’t care if he pitches high 80’s low 90’s. He has multiple pitches to get people out. JC Ramirez, who may hit mid to high 90s only has that one pitch and even per Woelver he needs to find another pitch.

    1. Seriously, J-Rod continues to get no love. It started at the beginning of the year when people talked about the four aces – May, Cosart, Colvin, and Pettibone. J-Rod’s had a great year, though it is worth noting that he has gotten lucky on balls in play – his BABIP is .241.

      1. J-Rod’s BABIP is .241. Why assume luck? Shouldn’t the question be, “How much hard contact do batters get on his pitches?”

        1. BABIP for pitchers is almost always .300. Pedro Martinez had a career BABIP of .279. I am totally fine with a minor leaguer posting a full-season BABIP under .300 if they are simply too good for their competition, but .241 is way way way beyond the bounds of a pitcher’s skill.

          1. Assuming BABIP of .300 is lazy analysis. Take the next step, analyze the velocity of balls coming off bats, factor in walks and K’s, and then you will have a better idea of how effective a pitcher is. There will still be some randomness, but not so much as BABIP leads you to believe.

  21. Serious question since I have little frame of reference. What does Galvis need to do next year to become a top 100 prospect? He’s a great fielder, hes hitting well albeit little to no power and a low walk rate. Any insight appreciated.

    1. Improve walk rate, hit for power and do it for two years… He probably will never see a top 100 list

      1. Ok, I thought if he hit .300 with a good bb rate low/moderate power next year he could jump in as an excellent fielding 22 year old SS. I hope he continues the off season program he did last year.

    2. Agree. To make the Top 100 as a SS, you have to field well and be known seriously as a masher for that position.

    3. I don’t want to go overboard on Galvis. However, the Red Sox’s Jose Iglesias was listed as a top 100 prospect before this year based mostly on defense. He hit .285/.315/.357 in AA Portland last season.

      Galvis is not as good as the .325 average in Lehigh Valley. But he certainly had a great season this year. I think there’s a legit argument. But we should also recognize that he’s not MLB ready and he’s going to put up lower numbers when he goes back to AAA next year.

      1. That’s interesting, though I think most prospect raters have Iglesias as the best defensive shortstop in the minors (Galvis is a touch behind him). I hadn’t thought of Galvis as a top 100 guy (I doubt he even cracks the top five of our group top 30 this year), but his numbers do look pretty good in comparison to Iglesias. To even be having this conversation is pretty remarkable, though.

  22. with his D i think .310-15-70 +obp .360 would put him in the top 100 especially because most lists seem to favor players at higher levels over players with a little more talent or even extremely talented, but equally raw players at lower levels

  23. I agree that .325 is definitely not sustainable, but it would be great to just see Galvis build on last years off season program and his AA/AAA season. I’m hoping he’s hungry based on his vast improvement. Love to see him MLB ready by 2013 or 2014.

    1. Freddy may never rank up there with Machado or Profur, but cannot see how C.Colon and A. Hechavarria are that much ahead of him in the world of the ‘expert ratings’.

  24. You make a good point about Hechavarria, who is actually 7 months older than Galvis. Hech was better than Galvis at the plate last year, but it’s not like he was some stud either. Colon I can see the argument for, as he has been a better hitter in some key areas. Then again, he is not the fielder Galvis is, so who knows.

    Are their particular rankings you are looking at that show those guys in a top 100 or something like that?

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