I would think that they’re being pitched differently – pitchers don’t want Brown to beat them and also have good scouting reports on him, while Galvis is hitting in the 9 hole and was just called up to AAA, so there may be a lack of scouting reports on him.
Agree Snood. They’re giving Brown nothing to hit. He’s taking the BBs. Brown’s probably trying to be aggressive so I’m sure he’s trying to get to those pitches that are just outside the strike zone. His average takes a hit because it’s hard to have a good average when your swinging at pitches out of the zone. This time of year a lot of teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Pitchers tend to avoid the big hitters and make other guys beat them. Earlier in the season, guys would be trying to rear back and blow him away.
Based on what evidence do you think he is a dissapointment to management? Certainly their public statements don’t indicate that. Because he was sent down? The more reasonable conclusion is that they sent him down for the announced reasons, combined with the team’s well known (and acknowledged) preference for vetran players (i.e., Ibanez).
No, the only “evidence” for the statement that management is (even) slightly disappointed with him appears to be the fact that an ignorant section of the fan base has soured on him. Basically statistical illiteracy, combined with placing inordinate weight on defensive mistakes, tinged in some cases (not most) with a whiff of racism. I’ve been critical of management lately, but whatever faults they may have, I certainly don’t think that they are stupid enough to have soured on Brown. Even a little.
I am really starting to believe that Dom Brown will be one of those players who will be a constant target of the fans. One player that Brown is very comparable to, with regards to their development and minor league batting skills, is Dexter Fowler. If Brown takes as long as Fowler, to get his feet under him, I doubt the fans would be patient.
I hate when the fans get like that. I didn’t see anything I didn’t really like from Domonic Brown besides his defense this year and that shouldn’t be as much of an issue in left field next year… since, quite frankly, he can’t be any worse than Ibanez out there.
Hey Anonymous VOR, I completely see where you’re coming from. I get the sense that people are just uncomfortable with him- who is this guy?. He hustles, but you can’t tell. Players like Pence are obviously making a great effort, but this might be attributable to lesser athleticism. Yes, Brown jogged to first on one ground ball, but it seems that a lot of other players do this and no one cares. Brown doesn’t have a lot of personality like Rollins or Kruk. He just calmy and carefully answers questions. I personally am a big Brown fan. I am in awe of his potential and I like him as a person. I don’t agree with Philadelphia’s love affair with players that throw their bodies around recklessly and appear to be making a great effort and this automatically is a ticket to immense popularity. I like players who help you win games with their baseball ability- hitting, throwing, speed- and I think Brown definitely has a chance to really help someone in this way. Maybe the best thing for him would be to get out of here.
At some point he could be a M. Stanton or J. Heywood—lets give him a full shot starting in April 2012. By July 1st, 2012 we will know a lot more on his development..
With Galvis it may be a combination of things. I’m sure his gaining strength and conditioning last winter helped him immensely. He was at the right age to start strength conditioning. He has seen a lot of pitches and has better recognition of pitches from the pitcher’s hand to the plate (an acquired skill). He is gradually putting it all together. It takes years and many “reps”. Another year of AAA and he will be ready to be seen. Then he’ll have to adjust to major league pitching and adjust to their adjustments like Brown and Heyward, etc.
Bonilla and Biddle (I like the combination) will be going through the same ups and downs as they make their way. I think both are doing fine, and with Buchanan (all in Clearwater next year) point to another class of fine pitchers the Phillies are developing.
Kudos to the player development staff of the Phils.
Great start for Bonilla. Only one walk and loads of groundouts.
James with a homer and two more times on base. That’s great. Buchanan’s start not so much.
Good that Carlos Rivero hit well in his return to Reading. Really nice start for Cloyd too.
Galvis doubles. And a nice Phillies beginning for Bush.
Clevlen is one of those guys with great potential who hasn’t quite achieved it. He’s a former 2nd round draft choice. He’s played in the majors in at least 3 season but never more that 50 ABs. He’s probably a AAAA player. He’s a nice pickup for Reading because they’d like to make the playoffs and no one seems to be ready to move up from CLW.
Someone – Ron I think – a couple days ago – said something along the lines of “the non-SABRE guys think that 50 AB is enough data to relay on for batting average, whereas the SABRE guys want a 100 AB sample size.” I may not have gotten it completely correct, but something like that.
And it really indicated the diffference between certain segments of the readership here. Because the … okay, I have the arrogant reputation, I’ll go with it … the statistically literate among us realize that even 100 AB is nothing, really. Especially for evaluating BA. Heck, for BA even a full season of data doesn’t tell us that much.
Brown walks a lot, has a good contact rate for his type of hitter, and hits line drives. His BA will be okay. Power of course normalizes in smaller sample sizes then BA, of course, but even there, given past data, he’s going to hit with power. (IMO the real question about Brown as a hitter is whether he will have mid range power, making him a solid regular, or prodigious power, making him a star. We don’t know the answer to that yet, but 124 AAA AB don’t provide any real new data on that point. Especially since his ISO, while not as high as one would like, isn’t horrible by any means.)
I do think it’s possible that Brown is still suffering the after effects of his injury (which can take a long time to fully heal), but he doesn’t need that “excuse.” His hitting at both levels has been better than his detractors admit (basically because of the BB), and to the extent that his numbers are, still, indeed, a little lower than you would like to see, it is quite likely (given past performance, scouting reports, and the fine BB/K data) that any “deficiency” is simply a matter of … bad luck.
OF COURSE Brown would be a better LF than Ibanez (granted a low bar, but much better). That said, since the Phillies seem determined to continue to put Ibanez out there, I’d rather see Brown getting the reps in AAA than sitting on the major league bench.
There’s plenty of areas where either (a) the evidence is unclear, or (b) where I lack knowledge or expertise, and in those areas I am far from arrogant. But when (a) the evidence is clear, and (b) I have the relevant knowledge, I don’t pretend otherwise. If that is arrogance, so be it.
And to make this explicit in terms of the current argument:
On the general issue of sample size, there really is no intelligent counterargument to what I’m saying.
On the specific issue of Brown, the issue is a little more muddy. That his walks make him more valuable than many realize is certain. But it’s not certain he will succeed. His “struggles,” such as they are, are almost certainly a product of (a) sample size, (b) the process of adjusting to major league pitching, (c) fallout from his injury, and/or (d) some combination of those 3 factors. I’m talking about his hitting; obviously his fielding is a real (though overstated) concern. Now, it could be that I’m wrong about that. Maybe he will be the rare player who fails, despite his blend of contact/plate discipline/power skills, as demonstrated in his minor league career (and even to an extent with his major league performance this season), as well as his athleticism. But judging that that is the case based upon this season’s performance is simply absurd.
Now, someone else recently made a different point – that in a forum like this, people should pretend that every “opinion” is equal, and that, despite the above facts, I should pretend that the guys who wants to crucify Brown based upon a couple of hundred AB may have a point. Well sorry, I just don’t agree with that.
Not I Mr Larrym, on the subject of the 50AB vs 100AB sampling.—concerning ‘sabering’ I refer to the Master—-William Beane. Go the college guys in the drafts vs the HS guys—less risk.
Or we could say this “so, that .133 average in August has warranted Ibanez staying in the lineup? Or is it the .178 SLG%?”
Yeah, yeah, small sample size. But what’s sauce for the goose … not to mention that the overall numbers are .235 and .407. Coupled with (yikes!) a .282 OBP. And (per Fangraphs, but consistent with subjective observations) the second worse defense of any major league palyer this season.
The only reason Dom is in the minors is so that people get maximum exposure to Raul’s defense. That way, when Dom takes over LF, the fans will be like “holy shit, this guy isn’t a traffic cone, total upgrade”.
not sure if this is the right place to throw out this request…but…. now that we are done tracking the draft signings ( loved it), any chance PP can do a 2010 draft in reveiw? A post mordem from last years draft? I know Biddle is doing great, not sure about Pointer. A few guys are injured. Is anyone other than Biddle a + prospect ?
Going through the Draft List from last year there seem to be a few players who look like prospects from their performance. Biddle, Rupp, Morgado, Buchanan, Claypool, Nesseth, Pointer, Alonso, Stumpo, Pettis jump out. Rupp has improved his hitting and seems to be the prospect the Phillies had envisioned when they drafted him. Morgado has been effective as a starter with Williamsport. I think they projected him as a reliever and that is where he may end up, but he has put in a number of innings this year with good results. Buchanan has zoomed to Clearwater and should be a big part of that rotation next year. His pitching at Lakewood was outstanding in the early part of the year. Claypool has been starting with mixed results at Lakewood, but he did very well at Williamsport and early this year at Lakewood. Nesseth is a short-season All Star although he was hit well in the All Star game. Pointer has played in GCL and had a typical first season that was up and down. He showed flashes of a very good player during the year. Alonso and Stumpo are players whom we seem to have projected as fill-in guys who could jump around the organization and do an adequate job. Their work has been more than adequate, especially Alonso. He has hit both at Williamsport and Lakewood for good average and some power. He may not have enough power to play third in the majors, but the Phillies have been playing him at second base where his power is fine. Stumpo seems to have some trouble defensively and is fairly old for this level. Pettis has the potential to be an effective reliever at higher levels including the majors. You seem to realize that Biddle is outstanding and progressing at a good pace. That isn’t a bad result from the 2010 draft.
Alonso has hit very well in Lakewood so far, and has walked twice as many times as he’s struck out. Those are good signs but he’s already 23. I wonder if they’ll give him a shot at Reading next year and skip Clearwater.
Phuture Phillies 
Small sample size alert: is anyone else befuddled by Galvis having a AAA batting average 65points higher then Browns at the same level?
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I would think that they’re being pitched differently – pitchers don’t want Brown to beat them and also have good scouting reports on him, while Galvis is hitting in the 9 hole and was just called up to AAA, so there may be a lack of scouting reports on him.
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Not really…it’s early for Galvis and Brown’s OBP is like 90 points higher.
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Agree Snood. They’re giving Brown nothing to hit. He’s taking the BBs. Brown’s probably trying to be aggressive so I’m sure he’s trying to get to those pitches that are just outside the strike zone. His average takes a hit because it’s hard to have a good average when your swinging at pitches out of the zone. This time of year a lot of teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Pitchers tend to avoid the big hitters and make other guys beat them. Earlier in the season, guys would be trying to rear back and blow him away.
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Besides, Galvis only has 50 ab’s. Many think that numbers don’t mean much until about twice that amount. FWIW, Brown had 97 last time I checked,
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(97 at AAA that is)
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IMO—Brown is a slight disappointment to Philly senior management. Even with his good eye at the plate.
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Based on what evidence do you think he is a dissapointment to management? Certainly their public statements don’t indicate that. Because he was sent down? The more reasonable conclusion is that they sent him down for the announced reasons, combined with the team’s well known (and acknowledged) preference for vetran players (i.e., Ibanez).
No, the only “evidence” for the statement that management is (even) slightly disappointed with him appears to be the fact that an ignorant section of the fan base has soured on him. Basically statistical illiteracy, combined with placing inordinate weight on defensive mistakes, tinged in some cases (not most) with a whiff of racism. I’ve been critical of management lately, but whatever faults they may have, I certainly don’t think that they are stupid enough to have soured on Brown. Even a little.
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I am really starting to believe that Dom Brown will be one of those players who will be a constant target of the fans. One player that Brown is very comparable to, with regards to their development and minor league batting skills, is Dexter Fowler. If Brown takes as long as Fowler, to get his feet under him, I doubt the fans would be patient.
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I hate when the fans get like that. I didn’t see anything I didn’t really like from Domonic Brown besides his defense this year and that shouldn’t be as much of an issue in left field next year… since, quite frankly, he can’t be any worse than Ibanez out there.
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Hey Anonymous VOR, I completely see where you’re coming from. I get the sense that people are just uncomfortable with him- who is this guy?. He hustles, but you can’t tell. Players like Pence are obviously making a great effort, but this might be attributable to lesser athleticism. Yes, Brown jogged to first on one ground ball, but it seems that a lot of other players do this and no one cares. Brown doesn’t have a lot of personality like Rollins or Kruk. He just calmy and carefully answers questions. I personally am a big Brown fan. I am in awe of his potential and I like him as a person. I don’t agree with Philadelphia’s love affair with players that throw their bodies around recklessly and appear to be making a great effort and this automatically is a ticket to immense popularity. I like players who help you win games with their baseball ability- hitting, throwing, speed- and I think Brown definitely has a chance to really help someone in this way. Maybe the best thing for him would be to get out of here.
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I agree By-By I’ve seen much better all around players, Browns nothing special.
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At some point he could be a M. Stanton or J. Heywood—lets give him a full shot starting in April 2012. By July 1st, 2012 we will know a lot more on his development..
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Chase was nothing special when he started… what did he hit? .230?
Now he’s the 2nd best second baseman in baseball and for a long time was the best.
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It just might end up being that kind of relationship with him.
Ryan Howard still doesn’t get love from the fan base and he’s one of the best sluggers in the league.
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What do you mean one of ??? Howard is the BEST
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Pujols… Agon… Cabrera…
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Brown also has a .400 obp… I don’t think Galvis has walked at all, so you can’t really compare them.
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Maybe Galvis is one of those few guys who hit better as he goes up. He must be on a cloud.
Lisalberto Bonilla is he getting a second wind.
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With Galvis it may be a combination of things. I’m sure his gaining strength and conditioning last winter helped him immensely. He was at the right age to start strength conditioning. He has seen a lot of pitches and has better recognition of pitches from the pitcher’s hand to the plate (an acquired skill). He is gradually putting it all together. It takes years and many “reps”. Another year of AAA and he will be ready to be seen. Then he’ll have to adjust to major league pitching and adjust to their adjustments like Brown and Heyward, etc.
Bonilla and Biddle (I like the combination) will be going through the same ups and downs as they make their way. I think both are doing fine, and with Buchanan (all in Clearwater next year) point to another class of fine pitchers the Phillies are developing.
Kudos to the player development staff of the Phils.
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Great start for Bonilla. Only one walk and loads of groundouts.
James with a homer and two more times on base. That’s great. Buchanan’s start not so much.
Good that Carlos Rivero hit well in his return to Reading. Really nice start for Cloyd too.
Galvis doubles. And a nice Phillies beginning for Bush.
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So Clevlen is kinda decent…
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Clevlen is one of those guys with great potential who hasn’t quite achieved it. He’s a former 2nd round draft choice. He’s played in the majors in at least 3 season but never more that 50 ABs. He’s probably a AAAA player. He’s a nice pickup for Reading because they’d like to make the playoffs and no one seems to be ready to move up from CLW.
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I broke his commitment when he was in high school. man, I’ve been around. First, Brian Gordon. Now Clevlen. Next will be Ryan Langerhans.
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Conestoga High guy does well in first outing. Look out Kyle K.
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I wonder why is ibanez still with the phillies. I already want to see brown in left field. Ibanez is struggling again
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That .255 avg in Triple A has warranted a recall?? Or is it the .383 SLG% ??
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Maybe the .400 obp.
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Someone – Ron I think – a couple days ago – said something along the lines of “the non-SABRE guys think that 50 AB is enough data to relay on for batting average, whereas the SABRE guys want a 100 AB sample size.” I may not have gotten it completely correct, but something like that.
And it really indicated the diffference between certain segments of the readership here. Because the … okay, I have the arrogant reputation, I’ll go with it … the statistically literate among us realize that even 100 AB is nothing, really. Especially for evaluating BA. Heck, for BA even a full season of data doesn’t tell us that much.
Brown walks a lot, has a good contact rate for his type of hitter, and hits line drives. His BA will be okay. Power of course normalizes in smaller sample sizes then BA, of course, but even there, given past data, he’s going to hit with power. (IMO the real question about Brown as a hitter is whether he will have mid range power, making him a solid regular, or prodigious power, making him a star. We don’t know the answer to that yet, but 124 AAA AB don’t provide any real new data on that point. Especially since his ISO, while not as high as one would like, isn’t horrible by any means.)
I do think it’s possible that Brown is still suffering the after effects of his injury (which can take a long time to fully heal), but he doesn’t need that “excuse.” His hitting at both levels has been better than his detractors admit (basically because of the BB), and to the extent that his numbers are, still, indeed, a little lower than you would like to see, it is quite likely (given past performance, scouting reports, and the fine BB/K data) that any “deficiency” is simply a matter of … bad luck.
OF COURSE Brown would be a better LF than Ibanez (granted a low bar, but much better). That said, since the Phillies seem determined to continue to put Ibanez out there, I’d rather see Brown getting the reps in AAA than sitting on the major league bench.
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Larry, you don’t have an arrogant reputation – you’re just plain arrogant.
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There’s plenty of areas where either (a) the evidence is unclear, or (b) where I lack knowledge or expertise, and in those areas I am far from arrogant. But when (a) the evidence is clear, and (b) I have the relevant knowledge, I don’t pretend otherwise. If that is arrogance, so be it.
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And to make this explicit in terms of the current argument:
On the general issue of sample size, there really is no intelligent counterargument to what I’m saying.
On the specific issue of Brown, the issue is a little more muddy. That his walks make him more valuable than many realize is certain. But it’s not certain he will succeed. His “struggles,” such as they are, are almost certainly a product of (a) sample size, (b) the process of adjusting to major league pitching, (c) fallout from his injury, and/or (d) some combination of those 3 factors. I’m talking about his hitting; obviously his fielding is a real (though overstated) concern. Now, it could be that I’m wrong about that. Maybe he will be the rare player who fails, despite his blend of contact/plate discipline/power skills, as demonstrated in his minor league career (and even to an extent with his major league performance this season), as well as his athleticism. But judging that that is the case based upon this season’s performance is simply absurd.
Now, someone else recently made a different point – that in a forum like this, people should pretend that every “opinion” is equal, and that, despite the above facts, I should pretend that the guys who wants to crucify Brown based upon a couple of hundred AB may have a point. Well sorry, I just don’t agree with that.
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So be it indeed.
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Not I Mr Larrym, on the subject of the 50AB vs 100AB sampling.—concerning ‘sabering’ I refer to the Master—-William Beane. Go the college guys in the drafts vs the HS guys—less risk.
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Or we could say this “so, that .133 average in August has warranted Ibanez staying in the lineup? Or is it the .178 SLG%?”
Yeah, yeah, small sample size. But what’s sauce for the goose … not to mention that the overall numbers are .235 and .407. Coupled with (yikes!) a .282 OBP. And (per Fangraphs, but consistent with subjective observations) the second worse defense of any major league palyer this season.
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Not to be negative, but IMO he (Dom) needs more time to improve defensive skills.
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The only reason Dom is in the minors is so that people get maximum exposure to Raul’s defense. That way, when Dom takes over LF, the fans will be like “holy shit, this guy isn’t a traffic cone, total upgrade”.
See RAJ really does have Dom’s back.
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Don’t forget that Raul’s bat speed – which can be timed with a sun dial at this point – will make Dom’s hands look like lightning.
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Geez another GCL game postponed today, I wonder if they will ever play another game this year…
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I know but I don’t care who is in left field but I don’t want to see ibanez
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not sure if this is the right place to throw out this request…but…. now that we are done tracking the draft signings ( loved it), any chance PP can do a 2010 draft in reveiw? A post mordem from last years draft? I know Biddle is doing great, not sure about Pointer. A few guys are injured. Is anyone other than Biddle a + prospect ?
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already on here , see top of page
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Going through the Draft List from last year there seem to be a few players who look like prospects from their performance. Biddle, Rupp, Morgado, Buchanan, Claypool, Nesseth, Pointer, Alonso, Stumpo, Pettis jump out. Rupp has improved his hitting and seems to be the prospect the Phillies had envisioned when they drafted him. Morgado has been effective as a starter with Williamsport. I think they projected him as a reliever and that is where he may end up, but he has put in a number of innings this year with good results. Buchanan has zoomed to Clearwater and should be a big part of that rotation next year. His pitching at Lakewood was outstanding in the early part of the year. Claypool has been starting with mixed results at Lakewood, but he did very well at Williamsport and early this year at Lakewood. Nesseth is a short-season All Star although he was hit well in the All Star game. Pointer has played in GCL and had a typical first season that was up and down. He showed flashes of a very good player during the year. Alonso and Stumpo are players whom we seem to have projected as fill-in guys who could jump around the organization and do an adequate job. Their work has been more than adequate, especially Alonso. He has hit both at Williamsport and Lakewood for good average and some power. He may not have enough power to play third in the majors, but the Phillies have been playing him at second base where his power is fine. Stumpo seems to have some trouble defensively and is fairly old for this level. Pettis has the potential to be an effective reliever at higher levels including the majors. You seem to realize that Biddle is outstanding and progressing at a good pace. That isn’t a bad result from the 2010 draft.
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Alonso has hit very well in Lakewood so far, and has walked twice as many times as he’s struck out. Those are good signs but he’s already 23. I wonder if they’ll give him a shot at Reading next year and skip Clearwater.
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thanks Puddnhead
you hooked me up. Much appreciated!!
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