Baseball America Top 100

Baseball America released its Top 100 today.  The Phils were well-represented:

#4–Domonic Brown

#39–Jonathan Singleton

#56–Brody Colvin

#70–Jarred Cosart

Among guy who have been traded, Kyle Drabek ranked #29, Travis D’Arnaud was #36, and Jonathan Villar was # 94.

EDIT–>While I’m at it, the Baseball Prospectus annual was just published (not sure if this will change online) and has Brown at #4, Colvin at #60, and Singleton at #63.  Drabek is the only former Phil at #14.

67 thoughts on “Baseball America Top 100

    1. Im pretty sure the only one with a fastball ranked ahead of him is Chapman. Tailon and Millers fastball are only 70.

    2. There are only two 80 tools on the whole list: Chapman’s fastball and Hamilton’s speed (look at the Reds representing). Gives some perspective on how good Cosart’s fastball can be.

  1. I hope Drabek and D’Arnaud become stars even in Toronto. The Blue Jays’ fans really took a blow from the Halladay trade. They deserve something good to come out of it.

    1. Dom Brown’s outfielding is really bad, he needs to work on his defense before moving up, not to mention his offense.

      1. I hope you didn’t take that from the article, because that’s not what Keith Law said. In fact, it bears no resemblance to what Law said.

      2. I have watched Brown play right and realize he may need improvement but since the alternatives are Francisco, Mayberry and Gload he is looking like a gold glover to me. Those 3 will be ugly in right.

        1. Mayberry and Francisco can handle the position but I don’t think they’re any better than Brown. The only outfielder that grades higher than Brown defensively (except Victorino) is Rich Thompson. And I really doubt the Phils are taking him north.

    2. Law is saying that if Brown starts in AAA, he can work on his D. In this article and elsewhere, however, Law has said Brown should be the Phillies’ RF from the get-go.

  2. wonder what it would take to get a guy like pence from the astros, think he is free age nt next year.

      1. Don’t bet against Ed Wade. I’m sure he’s chomping at the bit to swing a deal for Schlitter

    1. I thought the same thing myself and then I checked out his “WAR” scores – he does not do well on these at all. Take it for what it’s worth, but he’s probably not quite as good as his traditional statistics suggest.

  3. Phillies top 10

    1-6 as expected
    7- Jiwan James
    8-Jesse Biddle
    9- Domingo Santana
    10- Aaron Altherr

  4. No real surprises to me though I think Colvin is higher than I expected.

    On the traded guys, Drabek still looks to be a top of the rotation starter, maybe not the Top25 of starters but could crack the Top50 at some point if he continues to progress. D’Arnaud and Villar get some deserved bump due to their position. Both appear to project as good defensive players who at least show the skills to hit.

  5. No thanks to Dave$$$Montgomery. If not for him, we’d probably have 17 Top 100 Prospects instead of 4.

    BOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. BA also compiles their top 100 by original organization. Royals are first with 8, Phils and Yanks are second with 7.

    2. This is interesting – 43 of the top 100 had a bonus of less than $1m and 22 of them had a bonus under $500k. I’m sure that’s influenced by the much smaller pool of prospects who receive more than $1m and the somewhat lower bonuses in Latin America, but it still lends credence to the case that spending the most isn’t always the best.

    3. 34 Kyle Gibson
      rhp,Twins
      Best Tool: Slider.
      BA Grade: 70.
      Opening
      Day Age: 23 ETA: 2011

      Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 36th round of the 2006 MLB June Amateur Draft -Dave $$$ Montgomery thought it was more important to not go a hundred thousand dollars above slot and keep Bud Selig smiling.

  6. Also not much surprise on the Phillies Top10. I expected them to be all upside projection guys with Worley and DeFratus not to make it.
    I am guessing Altherr moving to 3B just made their decision easier. I could see Cesar Hernandez being in consideration. I do not think BA liked Gillies before but his arrest had to knock him down a few notches.

    1. BA released their Phillies’ Top 10 two months ago. I don’t think Altherr’s move to 3B influenced their decision.

      1. They released it during December. Even in the Handbook, Altherr’s profile isn’t updated for the position switch, so it didn’t play into his ranking.

        1. If anything, moving from CF to 3B would hurt him as CF is the tougher position on the defensive spectrum.

    2. “I do not think BA liked Gillies before but his arrest had to knock him down a few notches.”

      Did the cops break his leg?

      They certainly slandered his character. He was 100% innocent of the accusation and now he continues to be trashed online when he is in fact a victim of police abuse and incompetence.

  7. Interesting that Brown’s best tool is his arm, which rated a 70. That’s in line with PP’s profile, but still…I somehow found that a bit of a let down. Others:

    Singleton – Power – 65
    Colvin – Fastball – 70
    Cosart – Fastball – 75

  8. Bob (In LA): How close did Trevor May come to sneaking into the top 100?

    Jim Callis: He was in the next group of 15 prospects. You can blame me, because I was the only one who didn’t have him on a Top 150. I like the raw arm, but the command worries me and I want to see some success in high Class A first.

  9. Here’s an interesting stat. Of the guys on the list, 67 are from the draft and 33 are international players. Of the 67 guys from the draft, 53 are taken in the first round, sandwich, or second round. Of the 4 Phillies on the list, all are draftees taken after the 2nd round. Only 10 other guys on the list fit that description.

    1. Three cheers for our scouting and development team!

      It’s probably worth mentioning that Drabek was a first rounder and D’Arnaud was a first supplemental round pick. But your point remains!

  10. that statement was a fact on Brown he needs to work on his defense. I was not making a bad statement. he needs work before he gets the rt field position. there are other guys trying for that position who are better at outfielding than Brown. But basically you only read about the good side of Brown or excuses why he did not do good and you read about the negative sides of the other guys why they are not as good as Brown. Let’s be fair. I have always liked and respected your site.

    1. There’s a difference between saying “Brown needs to improve his his route-running and footwork” and carrying a personal vendetta against him. But #3 on their list is Jesus Montero, as bad an everyday defensive catcher as I’ve ever seen. But I still think Montero deserves his ranking because of his bat. How far do you expect to ding a guy for his defense, especially when his tools point to a defensive asset when he puts it all together out there?

      You can criticize this site or any number of Philly observers. But Baseball America is hardly working on a Phillies’ bias when they produce their rankings. Brown simply has more assets going for him than most other prospects in the minors.

    2. Brown is already better in right than Gload and Francisco. Mayberry can play but loses concentration often.

  11. As for Brown’s defense, Charlie Manuel today called out the team for poor cutoff drills. I remember a game last year when Nate McClouth missed the cutoff man and gave up the go-ahead run in a game against the Phils, so this is important. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown had defensive problems. Last year he dove for a ball when he should have let it roll to him and cost Halladay a shutout. At one point JRoll had to talk to him about throwing to third and not home. At the same time, Brown has earned the label “5-tool player”. He threw out Gaby Sanchez by a mile last year at home plate and made some fine diving catches. Defensive excellence is within reach for him. Juan Sameul I think is working with him in particular.

  12. Difference with Brown and other available options is that Brown has all the skills necessary to become an above average defensive player. He has a plus arm and good speed. He needs to learn how to get jumps and by all reports, throws off the wrong foot.

    These are mechanical issues that can be corrected with time and practice. Since he is said to be a hard worker who’s teachable, I expect that these are issues he will overcome.

    1. How long has Brown been an OF in the minors (let alone high school)? Is throwing off the wrong foot that difficult to fix? Really? Plus wasn’t he also a pitcher in high school. Did he throw off the wrong foot then?

      Not to dump on Brown because I agree that he all the skills to become a better fielder and he should rightly be focusing first on his hitting. So I can see learning to get a better jump on the ball, and that major league hitters might hit the ball harder and different parks have wind, lights, and other conditions, but throwing?

  13. As much as I liked the deal for Oswalt I felt Wade actually got a decent return. A young quality starting pitcher, a probable starting young 1b (gose flipped for Wallace) and a now top 100 young SS. Much better than Aumonte, Gillies and Ramirez.

    1. Yeah, I’m not big on Wallace but it was a good deal overall. Personally, I’d have just moved Carlos Lee to 1B as he’s a terrible LF anyway and they’re stuck with his contract.

      But, Wade still did a good job.

    1. The Indians Top 4 made the list. Knapp was 6th on Cleveland’s list. He only pitched 28 innings last year–the small amount of time on the hill in 2010 and the fact that it’s now leading to speculation that durability may limit him to a bullpen role knocked him off the Top 100. But I suspect that if he pitches a full season this year at a similar level to where he’s been, he could be Top 30 or so next year.

  14. Nick (Milwaukee)

    Isn’t this the ideal situation to put Brown in RF in Philly sooner than later? With their pitching making the headlines, the focus will be off the offense. He’s clearly too good for the minors and not quite good enough for the minors. Why not dip his feet a bit now without the pressure of being a Strasburg-like savior?

    Klaw (1:57 PM)

    Agreed, and would also throw this out there: In many organizations (not sure about the Phillies), the best defensive coach is on the major league staff. So while he needs to work on his D, he might actually be better served doing that in Philly than in AAA.

  15. thanks I Read where pence went to arbrition and thought that meant he was entering freeagency my mistake.

    1. Don’t think anyone called him a bust, but the scouting consensus is that he’s going to be a fairly pedestrian player. I also always question guys who are traded three times at such a young age.

      1. Pretty much THIS. Add in that they had a better internal option for 1B by simply moving Lee (something they had been trying right before the trade anyway) and it was an iffy move long-term. Wallace has been dropping like a rock in the prospect rankings as his ceiling kept dropping.

        His AAA numbers may look good from last year with that .868 OPS (decent but not great for a 1B prospect) but to put it in perspective, Las Vegas as a team posted an .837 OPS. Its an extreme hitters park and league. I doubt he’ll ever be a star.

        If Wade didn’t want Gose (he clearly got him to flip him for Wallace), he could have targeted someone else in our system or perhaps flipped Gose for an OF prospect to put in LF as Carlos Lee is brutal out there with the glove.

      1. I love the Phils end of the Oswalt, but thought Wade git decent value. Plus Oz can opt out after 1.5 years.

        Ok, if Wallace’s stock dropping i see the point. If your wade who else would you asked for?

        1. Yeah, but $16MM is a big number to walk away from, especially with a team like this.

          I actually agree with your original comment that Wade got a decent deal. I think Happ will regress, but will give them a few okay years at a low number. Villar and Gose are the types of guys the Astros need. Just don’t like the subsequent flip for Wallace.

  16. wow mention pence and espn comes out with pence is worst mvp candidate for a team. unreal. war stats must be right with him.

  17. Hindsight being what it is, I would rather have Happ as the Phillies 4th starter with Gose and Villar in the minors. I think the other 3 starters on the Big Club would suffice for the playoffs. That would likely be the case had Lee been signed last year rather than this year. I agree that, should Villar progress as hoped/expected he will be the hardest to replace because of his SS position and our lack of depth there. All of that being said, I agreed and still do agree with the Trade for Oswalt under the circumstances as they presented themselves at the time. It is still great to see 4 top 100’s.

    1. I don’t know about that–Happ strikes out less than 7 per nine, walks almost 4, gives up more than one homer, and his BABIP was been below the league average, all while pitching in two hitters’ parks. I can’t argue with his success thus far, but sooner or later, the peripherals have to catch up with him, right? This is a great trade to follow over the next few years–could end up being a win on both sides.

    2. Its impossible to know the full value of either the Lee or Oswalt trades for some time.

      We know this so far

      * Oswalt, after his arrival, was one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL. He had one so-so playoff start, one great playoff start, and one emergency relief appearance. He’s one of the 15 best starting pitchers in baseball, signed for 1 more year, with an option for 2012. I think based on his experiences here, and knowing the type of pitcher he is, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him decline his option and sign a team friendly 3 year extension to finish his career here. However, putting that aside for now, we’ll definitely have him for 2011. So you have his 2010 value to the Phillies + his 2011 value

      * The Astros have Happ, who will accumulate big league value.

      * Villar is a very high beta prospect. His bat is highly suspect, which will limit his other tools and his overall value. He still has lots of upside and plenty of time. But hes a very high risk guy, BA’s wishful ranking not withstanding.

      * Wallace still has time too, but he looks like a fringe average big leaguer at the most demanding offensive position on the field. Gose, however, is like the outfield version of Villar. Big upside, but very high risk factor.

      * The Phillies got the sure thing in the deal. Happ may accumulate value for Houston for the next 4 years, and it may surpass the value Oswalt contributes to the Phillies in 2011 and 2012. However, Oswalt is the better pitcher by a fair margin, and will outperform Happ, barring injury, over the next 2 seasons. As Happ hits arbitration, the gap between his value and his salary will narrow quite a bit.

      * The three prospects the Phillies received for Lee all struggled in 2010, but all possess high ceilings (relatively speaking) and are all high risk guys, just like Villar and Gose. If you’re going to cut Villar and Gose slack for being raw, I think you cut Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez equal slack given their ages.

      * Without the Lee trade last year, there probably isn’t an Oswalt trade in July, and there probably isn’t a 4 Aces rotation this year. It sucked trading Lee. But not having him in 2010 means having him + Oswalt in 2011. That’s a worthwhile trade, IMO, especially because we keep Lee long term, and still have a chance to retain Oswalt beyond 2011.

      1. Very true. With the Lee trade, there’s no way we ever have these 4 starters for 2011.

        It’s curious to wonder, however, whether, with Lee last year, the Phillies would all be wearing WS rings for 2010 and, further, whether Werth would still be hear. I think the answer to the latter question is no – I don’t see the Werth situation playing out any differently. That ship sailed the moment Werth hired Scott Boras. On the former, I think the answer is still probably no. The problem in the last postseason was not Roy Oswalt, but a lack of hitting.

        So, all things considered, I think it worked out better this way, but we won’t know for sure for a while.

  18. Keith Law’s generous ranking of Philly prospects only serves to mask his true bias against them.

  19. Just based on the names listed by extraction, it appears B P puts more value on higher level guys than B A.
    Singleton at 1B/LF needs to be an awesome hitter and still has lots of power projection to grow into.
    D’Arnaud going from 36 to +100 seems long a long fall but maybe B P does not give a huge upgrade for being a C.

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