My Top 30 Prospects for 2011: Part 9

** My Top 30 Prospects

5 more prospects to go in my 2011 Top 30. Today I’ll hit on numbers 26-28. For Friday I’ll get to #29 and 30 as well as my guys who just missed the list. Then I’ll open the floor for questions in an old fashioned mailbag on Monday. Then the focus shifts to spring training. Check below the fold for more.

Volume 1
Volume 2
Volume 3
Volume 4
Volume 5
Volume 6
Volume 7
Volume 8

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Brody Colvin, RHP
03. Jon Singleton, 1B/OF
04. Jarred Cosart, RHP
05. Trevor May, RHP
06. Sebastian Valle, C
07. Jesse Biddle, LHP
08. Vance Worley, RHP
09. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
12. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. JC Ramirez, RHP
15. Aaron Altherr, OF/3B
16. Jon Pettibone, RHP
17. Cameron Rupp, C
18. Jiwan James, OF
19. Harold Garcia, 2B
20. Kevin Walter, RHP
21. Colby Shreve, RHP
22. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
23. Michael Schwimer, RHP
24. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
25. Austin Hyatt, RHP
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

26. Leandro Castro, OF
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: In his first full season, Castro did what he’s always done, which is do a little bit of everything, and leaving you thinking he might just have enough ability to be an every day outfielder. He stole 22 bags, improved his contact rate, and hit for power that would be decent for a CF, but is below average for a corner outfielder.

Strengths: Castro is a good athlete, and though his aggression occasionally hampers him at the plate, he has a strong work ethic and offers average to a tick above tools in a number of areas, starting with his speed. He has a strong arm, but doesn’t get the best reads on the ball off the bat in left field. He flashed above average power (for the NYPL) in 2009, but his power dropped off a bit in pitcher friendly Lakewood. He may still develop 15-18 HR power down the line, but that is the top end. He made significant strides with his contact in 2010, despite moving to a tougher league.

Weaknesses: Castro’s plate discipline is somewhat lacking, and his aggressive nature sometimes translates into quick ABs. His offensive profile would play well in centerfield, but not nearly as well in LF, and its unknown whether he can shift back to center, as he was taking a back seat to a superior defender in Jiwan James in 2010. His speed is solid, but not game changing.

Best Case: If his power ticks up a bit and he can play centerfield defensively, I think he has a chance to be a starting centerfielder in the big leagues. If his power doesn’t improve and he can’t refine his approach, he looks ticketed for a 4th OF job. Tightening up his contact skills will help him reach that level as a worst case scenario.

MLB ETA: He’s at least 3 years out, and it would be nice to see him play CF regularly in 2011, though he might not have that opportunity.

Ranking Difficulties: You have to project a bit to see him as an every day guy, and in a corner, he’s almost certainly not an every day guy unless his contact level becomes elite or his power improves. That said, at the back of the list, I think its okay to go with a guy who looks a good bet to make it to the majors and at least provide bench bat value.

Final Thoughts:Castro is a tough guy to rank, as are most of the guys outside of the top 10. He’s an aggressive guy who plays the game at full speed at all times, which sometimes gets the better of him. As he gains experience, he may be able to refine his approach and better utilize the energy and aggressiveness. And I just like what he has to offer, and its my list, so he goes here.

27. Miguel Alvarez, OF
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: After an unspectacular US debut in 2009, Alvarez put together a solid season in the pitcher friendly NYPL, hitting .329 in 279 PA and flashing a bit of speed. At 5’11/175, He doesn’t figure to be a big league slugger, but he has very strong wrists and a solid swing, and could turn himself into a line drive doubles machine going forward.

Strengths: Alvarez’s .329 average is nice, but no doubt fueled by his .398 BABIP. What gets me excited is his swing/setup, which you can see here. He has a strong setup and really strong, quick wrists. He doesn’t have a ton of moving parts in his swing, and gets his hands into a good position. Looking at his stat line, you can tell his approach is very crude, and while the power hasn’t emerged yet, I think its in there, looking at his swing.

Weaknesses: His walk rate was poor in 2010, and he didn’t make elite contact, though at 17% K rate isn’t in the worry zone, especially for a raw 20 year old from Latin America. He has good speed but doesn’t figure to be a burner. He spent time in both LF and CF, and like Leandro Castro, he might have the tools to play there, but hasn’t gotten a chance.

Best Case: When I look at his setup, his swing, and his size, my first thought was Rickie Weeks, with a slightly less pronounced bat waggle. Weeks was a highly touted college prospect, and is ahead of Alvarez in terms of performance and polish, but when looking at their bodies (both right around 6’0, Weeks weighs 30 pounds more), I think Alvarez could physically develop into that type of hitter.

MLB ETA: Hes many miles away, probably 4-5 years.

Ranking Difficulties: As with all short season players, especially those without dominant stat lines, you’re just guessing. As I’ve mentioned, I love his swing and I can see him adding more muscle to his frame and developing more power. At the back end of the list, you’re just going with guys you really like who you think may surprise. I think he has considerable upside.

Final Thoughts: Like I said, this one is an instinct call. His batting average was BABIP induced, but I think he has the raw tools to do damage, especially if he’s able to add more bulk and muscle. He’ll face a big test in 2011 at Lakewood.

28. Kelly Dugan, OF
(Click here for larger image)

2010 Summary: Dugan has had a tough time staying on the field since being drafted in 2009, but he showed flashes of what he could do when healthy in 2010, putting up ridiculous numbers in the GCL before getting a quick taste of the NYPL to end the season.

Strengths: The Phillies liked Dugan’s ability to switch hit, with the potential for both average and power. Originally thought to be a first base prospect, he’s played the outfield as a pro, and should definitely be able to stick in LF going forward. Looking at his numbers, its impossible to gain any knowledge. We’ll have to wait for him to hopefully be healthy for a full season to give us more data, but the tools package is still intriguing. In a very brief spell, he showed very impressive raw power in the GCL, in brutal hitting conditions.

Weaknesses: He logged just 113 PA’s in 2010, which should have seen him end up with close to 300, so its tough to really know what to make of his numbers. 2011 is a crucial season for his development, and staying healthy is concern number 1. He doesn’t figure to be much of a burner on the bases, and he will likely be limited to LF as he moves up.

Best Case: If everything comes together, he could be a switch hitting every day LF who offers both a solid average and average to a tick or two above power. That said, his risk level is high because he lost a lot of reps in 2010 and he hasn’t faced much advanced level pitching yet.

MLB ETA: He’s 4-5 years away, especially if he continues to switch hit, as he will need to adjust to better pitching from both sides of the plate.

Ranking Difficulties: I think I could have rated him higher, yet there are guys behind him who I think merit a place on the list too. He has upside, but after not being a highly touted guy in high school, he still has plenty of question marks to answer as well. This spot feels right to me.

Final Thoughts: I want to see a healthy season from Dugan in 2011, preferably with him in Lakewood where he can log 500 PAs against good pitching, just so we can see where he is in his development. He’s one of the more interesting guys to monitor in 2011.

85 thoughts on “My Top 30 Prospects for 2011: Part 9”

  2. #29 and #30 will be very interesting. There are 5 guys on my list that you haven’t mentioned yet: Galvis, Zeid, Nick Hernandez, Hollands and Pettis. I can also think of 4 or 5 other guys who definitely would have been in out top 30 last year or the year before. I’m assuming you’ll have a big Honorable Mention section.

    I like that you had Miguel Alvarez on the list. I went back and forth on him for #30 and the more I think about it, I think he was a better #30 than Pettis. I used to just write-in Hewitt’s name at #30 every year. He’s not even an honorable mention if we went top 50 this year.

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      2. If he did, it escaped BA, Sickels, and the Minor League Analyst as they all still tout him as a switch-hitter. He only had 13 ABs against LHP last year anyway.

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        1. The 13 PAs would explain why no one picked up on it. I watched Doug Bernier play a few times a week for three months before I picked up that he wasn’t switch hitting.

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        2. In at least 3 of those 13 ab he batted left-handed against a left-handed pitcher. I was to several Williamsport games last year. In two of those games, Dugan started against a right-handed pitcher, in both of those games the other team brought on a left-hander versus Dugan and he batted left-handed. In one of those games, Dugan faced the left-handed reliever twice batting left-handed. In another game when a left-handed pitcher started, Dugan did not play.

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  4. brian pointer (think i spellled his name wrong because there is a y somewhere in there) and zeid as 29 and 30. I have pp’s list. book it

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  5. I like Castro, his skill set reminds me of Roger Bernadina. However, I fully expect him to be a part of a future trade package. These decent but expendable types don’t seem to hang around long these days.

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  6. Garner has to be in the top 30 based on the last few spots had high potential/small sample guys. As for other spot, good question. In my opinion, based on who is left it should not be galvis. How much sample do we need to know he is not a real good prospect?

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    1. We should wait until he’s actually age-appropriate for his level, for once. He’s been facing more advanced competition pretty much his whole pro career.

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  7. I’ll guess Zeid and Garner for the last 2 spots.
    Tim Kennelly, Maikel Franco and Brian Pointer as the just misses.

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  8. And what could have been the Phillies top 7 back in the 80s/early 90s…
    Garner
    Zeid
    Collier
    Pointer
    Galvis
    Hewitt
    Hudson

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  9. Brian Gump should take the #29 slot. If he stays healthy and is given the chance to play everyday he will have a breakout year.

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  10. Gump? He’s a nice player who won two championship rings last season (is that a trivia question or what?) with GCL and Lakewood but, he won’t play much this season. Singleton’s move to the outfield probably hurts Gump the most.
    Castro has lots of ability but he needs to play CF to have real value and that won’t be with the Phils unless James or Gillies gets traded.
    Two guys that I’m real interested in seeing during ST are Pointer and Eldemire. Pointer will likely play at W-Port but Eldemire will definitely be fighting for a spot in Lakewood’s outfield as will several other guys (Hewitt, Alvarez, Santana, Dugan if 1B doesn’t work, Altherr if 3B doesn’t work, and Collier assuming he’s healthy). Imagine if Pointer knocks the cover off the ball in ST. Then what? Clearwater already has Singleton, James and Castro playing every day so holding someone back in XST and then moving him up with a ripple to C-Water won’t work either. Good problems to have… For all these outfielders, we still don’t have a quality SS at C-Water and we eagerly welcomed Mattair (a great guy with a cannon for an arm) back to play 3B there even though the odds are against him suddenly learning to hit off speed stuff. Let’s hope that Anderson Gonzalez (the 16 yr old Latin SS signee) can play…

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    2. I mean, as players in your weakest position go, Schoenburger isn’t too bad. His absolute ceiling is a utility player, but he can hit some, isn’t ancient and it isn’t impossible that he could some day play in the majors.

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  11. Still missing my #15 Steady Freddy Galvis, #24 Zeid, #25 Garner, #27 Nunez, #29 N. Hernandez…I wonder if PP can slip all those guys into the last two slots to make me feel better 😉

    On Dugan, he killed it in 42 ABs in the GCL then struggled in 71 ABs in the NYPL. He was only 19, but still I am not sold at all.

    Murray, I am also excited to see what Eldemire can do. I think he is a good sleeper pick.

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    1. “what Eldemire can do. I think he is a good sleeper pick.”

      I agree. I usually like to see high ceiling high school talent taken here, but this guy has the tool box and production last year.

      Should go to Clearwater to start.

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      1. Have the Phils ever started anyone at C- Water? I can’t recall them ever doing that before so I would highly doubt that they’d start him there. Due to his age and available playing time, the Phils may reverse course and move Hewitt up to C-Water if he has a good ST. He has been down there for over a month hitting.

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          1. Close.

            Burrell began at Clearwater the year he was drafted. In other words he skipped the Williamsport/Lakewood levels entirely.

            His first full season was at Reading and he finished the year at AAA Scranton.

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  12. I would to know why you didn’t include:
    Perci Garner
    Josh Zeid
    Nick Hernandez
    Zack Collier
    Kyrell Hudson
    Ervis Manzanillo
    Eblein Lugo

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    1. Kyrell Hudson

      The Phils have not released him yet? I hope they released the scout and guy who green-lighted his near half million signing bonus. Worst scouting report I’ve ever read at Baseball America. Hit around .300 on the nose -horrible for a high school bat – and refused to run out ground balls like B. J. Upton.

      Whoever was involved with giving Kyrell Hudson a half million dollars should be arrested.

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      1. Hudson will start in CF for W-Port and I can promise you that if he doesnt run out a ground ball, Mickey M will be all over him. Hudson will see all the OFs ahead of him in ST and should know that he’s going to have to work hard to get ahead. The large signing bonus will likely prevent him from being released too quick.

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      2. The same guy who constantly complains that the Phillies will never be any good because they don’t spend money is complaining that they spent money on Hudson. I believe that is the definition of irony.

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        1. Your post is the definition of stupidity.

          If there is anyone in your family tree with a three digit IQ then please ask that person to read my post and explain it to you.

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  13. Agreed that Zeid and Garner should be in the top 30 – but, hey, that’s the whole point of this excercise. There are a lot of guys that are tough to rate.

    In any event, you folks will be owing me a big “I told you so” when our friend Gauntlett goes nuts in Lakewood this year. I’ve just got a good feeling about him and with a name like that, the baseball gods (who have amused us by giving us players like Milton Bradley, Howard Johnson and Coco Crisp), will not permit him to fail.

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    1. hey, I’m with you on Gauntlett (and Rupp is another one of my “I told you so players). Gauntlett had some serious power numbers in college, and some pretty decent plate discipline. Throw in some speed, and I think we’re looking at a nice prospect.

      – Jeff

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      1. I like Eldemire. I kept him out of my top 30 because with his sixth round draft status and lack of pro experience, I felt it reasonable to rank conservatively.

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        1. The one thing though with a guy with a name like that, we have to identify an acceptable abbreviation to cheer for him. There’s no way I can cheer “Let’s go Gauntlett” or “Give it a ride Eldemire”. Any usable suggestions?

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      2. I think Gauntlett is on the verge of becoming a folk hero around here. “He’s an absolute monster, but nobody has ever seen him… and lived to tell about it.”

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  14. Not trying to be a stickler, just looking for clarification…
    In Castro’s write up you mentioned “his power dropped off a bit in hitter friendly Lakewood,” but in Pettibone’s you commented that his HR rate was “a highish amount considering Lakewood’s very pitcher friendly confines,” and in Rupp’s write-up you said “Lakewood is not a forgiving hitter’s park.”

    The stats I’ve seen (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_minor_league_park_multipliers/) make Lakewood appear to be a slight pitcher’s park.

    Three-Year Weighted
    TM R H 2B HR BB K
    Lakewood 0.92 0.97 0.95 0.77 1.02 1.02

    2010
    TM R H 2B HR BB K
    Lakewood 0.87 0.96 0.91 0.76 1.02 1.01

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    1. I’m sure he meant “pitcher-friendly” – Lakewood is a pretty big ballpark, and power numbers tend to be a bit lower for players there.

      – Jeff

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      1. Gotcha. I went to about 5 games there last year… it’s beautiful, but I had no idea how it played. The first time I read one of PP’s comments I thought, “Okay, great, it’s a pitcher’s park, now I know” so it really stuck out when I read the opposite today.

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  15. Alvarez is the first guy from PP’s list that I view as just not quite good enough to merit a spot of top 30 list. His batting average is up quite a bit in 2010, but that seems to be due to a jump to a BABIP which is well above normal for him. Walks remain virtually nonexistent. He is very raw, but not especially young for a Latin American prospect. He is small, compared to most of our other toolsy OF guys and doesn’t seem to be as fast. He had a nice season with the bat, apart from not walking, but seems more appropriate at around #40.

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  17. Do we have a bonus amount on Alvarez? Unless it was significant, I’m pretty skeptical of his place here, given what little performance we have to go on. I don’t consider a 20 year old with that K/BB rate Williamsport, who’s 5’11, 175 and without any tool that sticks out from anything anyone can tell, and who even someone painting a rosy picture of him terming him 4-5 years away, as a high-reward type.

    Unless we gave him like 300K, at which point I’ll give some leeway to the pro talent eval’s, I’d have to put at least Dugan and Garner ahead, if not Collier and a couple others. At least someone somewhere convinced the higher ups they were worth some serious dime.

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    1. The reality is that the Phils may dole out L-Wood OF playing time based on bonus money plus projected upside meaning that Alvarez may find himself on the outside looking in. If Dugan and Altherr can stick at the IF corners, things get easier but Hewitt and Collier were high picks and will play. Santana has the very high ceiling so he will play and Eldemire looks like he might have a very high ceiling so that will be evaluated.

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      1. 1B: Dugan
        3B: Altherr
        CF: Eldemire
        RF: Santana
        LF: Alvarez
        4OF: Hewitt
        Between those positions and DH everyone should get ABs.

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      1. Unless you quote an Alvarez bonus, how is that relevant?

        At any rate, to take you through, the baseline was that the 200k indicated tools, if some reservations. We don’t have that on Alvarez, at least that anyone’s referenced. the gap appears…

        Then I was encouraged by Brown’s .299/.363/.415 at Williamsport. At the same age Alvarez had a .288/.345/.349 in the DSL. The gap widens….

        Then I liked the .291/.382/.417 as a 20 year old in lakewood with a 12% BB rate and 2/1 K/BB rate. At the same age Alverez just played this season. With a 3% walk rate. A .398 BABIB and a 6/1 KK/BB rate… The gap is officially HUGE.

        Then I REALLY liked the .299/.377/.504 as a 21 year old in Clearwater. Enough to say we have ourselves a damned good prospect. Age wise, this is what Alvarez’s upcoming season must be compared against.

        While I’m perfectly aware that you are not comparing the two head to head, the very reference is mystifying. To answer your question, $200K was a pretty significant bonus, if not indicating blue chipper, and it took until he had performed well compared to his contemporaries in more advanced leagues to become a believer. Alvarez has nothing but a BABIP inflated BA and a groundout on a youtube video. Meaning pretty much nada.

        I’ll take the $585K bet by the org alongside the negligable date we have on Dugan, Garner etc.

        And I was Anonymous above.

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        1. You missed the point.

          Carlos Ruiz was signed for $8,000

          Lots of good prospects sign for small fees, especially out of Latin America. Villar was signed for a small sum, as was Cesar Hernandez. Brown is now one of the top prospects in baseball, how were the Phillies able to sign him for $200K in the 20th round?

          The draft is littered with players who received big signing bonuses and never amounted to anything. Alvarez may amount to nothing, but considering our track record in Latin America, where we’ve unearthed gems for $20K or less (Ruiz and Valle, to name a few), I don’t think his bonus amount means anything. I outlined why I liked him, and it wasn’t because of his raw stat line.

          Frankly, I find it odd that people get so bent out of shape at the back end of a list of 30 prospects, where the whole point is for me to show my opinion. Even more perplexing, those who think I don’t have any idea what I’m talking about keep coming back and reading. Its very strange.

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          2. I’ve been a long-time reader and very well understand you aren’t great at abiding disagreement. And I’ll remind you again not take it personally.

            Anyway, you sir, missed my point.

            I point out that in the absence of good playing data, the amount of money an organization invests in a player should be an important reference point. No matter how much youtube videos you reference, the organization has had a lot more eyes on a guy. There is no counter-argument. Pointing to Brown, Ruiz, etc is irrelevant. You may say why you like Alvarez, but it’s thin and unconvincing and really comes down to what you call “instinct.” I point to something more tangible, and respectfully disagree.

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            1. Not sure if you agree or not, but I look at assignments also, as a baseline for how the organization views the status of a prospect. I think that might be similar to your view on bonuses.
              I put Franco in my top 30, in part, due to them allowing him the most abs on the team in GCL. At age 17, they usually send the regular guys to the DSL or VSL.

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            2. The whole bonus money thing doesn’t really seem like a good indicator to me. Especially when guys like Hudson get massive bonuses. Sure it means the org likes something they see about the player, but I don’t think it should be used as any kind of talent evaluator. Especially considering some players get larger bonuses than they might otherwise receive to forgo college. Basically as thin as you may think PP’s reasoning may be for ranking Alvarez may be, I don’t really see a good reason not to rank him there.

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            3. obviously leverage plays a role in bonus, but you really don’t think that, when we only have a couple hundred meaningful at bats to go on, the fact that the organization invested 500K in one player, and 10k in another doesn’t say something meaningful about that player’s potential?

              really?

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    2. Makes you sick doesn’t it?

      I was just going to eat and now I’ve lost my appetite.

      If not for Dave $$$ Montgomery strangling the farm system the Phils would be rated #1. You could actually create a top system with the top ten players the Phils did not sign over the last seven or eight years.

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  19. In a similar vein, BA had Brandon Workman #18 in the Red Sox system. Looking at the players above and below Workman (Bryce Brentz and Alex Wilson), I’m not entirely certain Workman would crack our top 30.

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  20. Good synopsis of Castro. I’m seeing him very much like the minor league Victorino as a hitter. The diff between him and Vic of course is that Vic steals a lot more bases with elite speed and plays a premium position at a high level. But Castro seems to be a strong little guy with some pop, like Vic, and his minor league production is somewhat alike. He will have to learn to battle pitchers with patience in the majors, much like Vic has learned to do.

    Agree that if he can’t play CF, he might be a 5th OFer. With his bat, he should be playing 2B, so I assume he does not have the ability to do that. A classic tweener, who may or may not get a chance to flash a decent but not spectacular bat in the majors.

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    1. It still blows me away that the Dodgers didn’t protect Victorino… Interestingly, I like your comparison of Castro with him. Vic didn’t even run that much when the Phils first got him.

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      1. True, but Castro does not have the elite sprinter speed that Vic had. They had rawness, free-swinging, modest-size-but-strong, aggressive swinger in common. Don’t see Castro as a starter for those reasons unless he upgrades his resume in some area pretty dramatically.

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      2. Not only did they not protect him they refused to take him back.
        The Dodger have become the Cubs west.

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    2. I think it’s hardly a foregone conclusion that he’ll even be a 5th outfielder. He’s got a lot of improving to do over the next few years, especially his on base skills.

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  21. PhuturePhillie,

    Your write-up on Miguel Alvarez lead to question as to how you can consider him a prospect? You state that he is 4 to 5 years away from the major leagues. He does not have 4-5 years to develop because he signed first professional contract with the Phillies on – May 1, 2007. He must be added to the 40-man roster by Nov 2011 or be subject to the rule 5 draft. If he is added to the 40-man roster he only has 3 option years to be permanently in the majors by or he will have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors. If they do not add him to 40-man and he sneaks through Rule 5 both this year and next year, then he will become eligible for minor league free agency in October 2013. This is long before the 4-5 years you stated it will take for him to develop. I can not believe for all the details and analysis you put in your prospect evaluations you have not considered the importance of the prospect’s contract status. This is a very important bit of information in evaluating prospect especially foreign signees. Alvarez languished in the foreign rookie leagues for two years and after 4 years in the minors has not yet gotten out of the short season leagues. This is clearly a red flag. I read that the level of competition in these foreign leagues equate basically to American High School play. So as he was burning 2 years of his 5 years of development time, he was competing at the level of high school play. This same concern can be raised on other prospects including Leandro Castro but not to the same degree since he is more advanced. In addition, the contract status of Colby Sheve and Michael Schwimer are also concerns since they must also be added to the 40-man roster by Nov 2011. Colby Sheve issue is essentially that he lost forever 2 years of development time due to injury. These 2 years can never be recovered.

    The Phillies have a number of prospects that must be added to the 40-man roster this Nov or be subject to the Rule 5 Draft. The Phillies can not protect all of them on their 40-man rosters and may not even be able to provide limited protection from the minor league phase of the Rule 5 for some of them like Alvarez. Over the last several years the Phillies normally sign a large number of minor league free agents (who they hope can fill in at the major league level when injuries occur) with invites to spring training. This is important because these players count against the minor league reserve limit of 38 at AAA and have an affect on the number of prospects that a team can provide limited protection to. This is probably why the Phillies lost Jesus Sanchez and Johan Flande last year. They had no room to add them to AAA reserve list when then removed them from 40-man roster and therefore had to release them. Player taken in the AAA phase of Rule 5 only cost $12,000 and they do not have to be returned to their original club under any circumstances. The reason for this discussion of rule 5 is that I believe that Alvarez and others could possibly become available in this year’s minor league phase of rule 5.

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    1. Are option years/rule 5 status really relevant to a player’s prospect status? If Alvarez in five years is among the 30 most successful players on this list, than he belongs. In any case, we’re talking four years before the Phillies MUST have him on their major league roster. Not far off from 4-5 years.

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    3. Not sure what Schwimmer’s 40 man roster status has to do with anything. He is either going to be in the bigs at some point this year or he will be a lost prospect. The guy is ready and would already be on the 40 man roster if he needed to be. He shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Alvarez.

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    4. I fear you didnt read what I wrote.

      I said that his statistical line didn’t blow me away, but I was impressed with his swing, his strong wrists, and thought he could develop power, albeit never into a true slugger like Manny Ramirez. Those guys are rare.

      Being ready to be a full time big leaguer is different than making it to the majors. The Phillies can protect him on the 40 man for 3 years, and he may qualify for a 4th option year.

      He may never amount to anything. Its the back of the list. I picked a guy I really like. I don’t think its that tough to really understand the selection. People will clamor for any number of players I left off my list for various reasons. That’s all well and good, I like the debate. But I explained exactly why I included him on my list. You can disagree with my valuation of him, I just hope you understand my reasoning for adding him.

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    5. If Alvarez plays for another team why would that make him any less of a prospect. That is like saying in previous years that it was stupid to have Carlos Monasterios in your top 30 because he will be eligible for the rule 5 draft before he is major league ready.

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  22. Say what you want but Castro was the best run producer in the Phils Minor league system. He had 81 RBIs (with 10 HRs) and scored 78 runs. No one else in the organization produced like that. Dom Brown, if he had a full year in the minors, I’m sure would have beaten that. By the way, Jiwan James was 2nd…

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  23. I think Pat Gillick scouted Kyrel Hudson, personally, he may not have been the one who signed him. But I am pretty sure he followed him.

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  24. I also disagree with Alvarez making the Top30 but cannot argue with the ‘tools’ aspect he might bring. He could have a breakout year (lots of guys could) but I do not think he has shown the level of consistency or dominance to project a high talent or high likelihood of reaching any particular level.

    I think Castro deserves at Top30 ranking but I am now looking more on the downside projection for him. But being a controllable, energetic 4th OF would be nice for any Major League team.

    Dugan is another lack of info type. His GCL was amazing, so what does that mean? Limited sample size, or possible upside talent level? However, that is interpreted determines whether he makes the Top15 or is in the 30’s. Problem I see for him is that 1B/LF are his current projections and he does not have the power for them.

    I would have guessed Eldemire and Garner for the last two spots but maybe now I’ll add Galvis. Age saves him for one more year.

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