2011 Reader Top 30, #6

We may as well move on, as Trevor May is taking the #5 spot with relative ease. I’ll add a bunch of the names for #6 that were mentioned in the discussion for #5, though I’m sure #6 will be a landslide as well. We’ll see.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP

76 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #6

  1. Gillies got a bum rap last season. From injuries and the law. He beat the law, and I think if he beats the injuries, with the stats he put up in High Desert, he’s got to be considered a real deal kind of prospect. The guy who dominates a hitters league is still dominating, right?

  2. He did not beat the law.

    The law had no case. Take more than something in the back seat of a cruiser
    with no fingerprints to make a case under our Rule of Law thank God.

    If not, every rogue officer, (a very rare situation), would drop packets all day and night long.

  3. I’m sure it will be Valle in a landslide for #6. Things will start getting interesting after this though because it seems like at least 5 different guys will start getting lots of votes for #7. Still no news on Jesus Sanchez?

  4. I think Colby shreve is a better prospect then aumont at this point. I hope he is an option when voting for prospect # 8,9,10.

  5. Now that the top-top level of young pitchers is out of the way, switch to Valle here, no other position players should be this high. Position players should be in storage for next 5 picks or so after Valle. Ruling : Is Bastardo eligible for this list?

  6. Shreve is a tough guy to rate. 6.3 K/9 from a 22 year old from low A is barely a prospect usually. But Shreve was coming off TJ surgery and that likely effected his performance. Unfortunately we have no pre-injury data to evaluate. I have him mid 20s.

  7. Just for fun, I wonder where Brewers’ SP Mark Rogers would rank on this list. He’s their #1 prospect, he probably wouldn’t crack our top 5.

  8. I agree his stats wernt top prospect stats but the tj surgery kept him out two years if I remember right. He held his own in Lakewood and I expect he could see multiple levels this upcoming season. Btw if any of the players involved in the cliff lee deal were putting any extra pressure on themselves to live up to the deal. I think this year they will have a lot of pressure off of them and we could see really nice production from them. Just a thought.

  9. Bastardo is no longer considered a rookie by MLB standards, so I would assume he is not eligible for the list. Same goes for Mathieson. Mayberry on the other hand, if anybody would be so inclined to vote for him, is still a rookie I believe.

  10. I use Baseball America’s criteria which ignores time on the active roster and just considers IP or PA. 130 at bats (150 plate appearances?) or 50 IP.

  11. Will join the crowd voting for Valle based on his combination of age, performance, and position value. It starts getting harder at #7.

  12. Valle is young, has power potential, and is apparently developing as a fine receiver. It doesn’t hurt that he’s learning with some of the best young pitchers in baseball. With that, he gets my vote as number 6 – it’s actually a very easy vote as the tally reflects.

    The weird thing with Valle is that, as much as we need to develop a young catcher, I certainly cannot see him playing on the Phillies any time within the next 4 or 5 years. Chooch is the man behind the plate and seems to have the right build, demeanor, intelligence and overall skill set to play the position well into his mid to late 30s. I guess it’s a “high class” problem and they’ll deal with it as and when it becomes an issue.

  13. I’m torn between Valle and Worley – the latter is close to a finished product, and looks like he will be a solid Major Leaguer. Valle is young, has decent pop and plays a demanding position. Valle it is, largely because he’s got more upside.

    – Jeff

  14. I went with Valle, but I don’t see a drop-off to Gillies at all.

    Gillies will be my #7 today. But I expect that he will break out as a Phillies prospect early this season.

  15. VW again sooner or later I will be right. wink

    Lou’s weird thought of the day: Suppose Moyer comes back throwing in 90 mph.

  16. I went with Valle, who was the last of my certain whom I’m going to vote for. More jumbled from here. I think Valle already a step down from the top five but probably another slight step down after this, not really in talent but in an increase of either question marks or just guys farther down the development path.

  17. The reality with Chooch is that there just aren’t that many starting catchers in their mid 30s due to the demanding toll of the position. Injuries also happen more frequently with a catcher. Did Chooch have his career year last year or did he raise his game to another level? He did hit each year in the minors so I’m hoping that he’s raised his level. Valle might not be ready until 2014 at age 24 if he goes one level per year which gives Chooch at least 4 more years starting at which point I expect he’ll be on teh downside of his career.

  18. I put Castro above James and Gillies. I go Valle here – Santana at 7 – Biddle at 8 – Worley at 9 – DeFratus 10

  19. To be honest, I don’t really know enough about the Phils’ prospects after we get past the top guys to vote intelligently. My main reason for visiting this website is to learn about Phils’ prospects from PP and those of you who actually know the farm teams and actually have seen the prospects play.

    My inclination is to select Worley at No. 6 and De Fratus at No.7 because they may be ready to contribute to the big team in 2011. I don’t know enough about the other remaining prospects to rank them properly.

  20. I’ve never seen such wide consensus on the first 6 players like this before. Even outside of this site, almost everyone has the exact same list.

  21. Now it gets a little tougher. First 5 were easy. Im going Biddle followed by Gillies. Hopefully for Gillies he can put this year in his past.

  22. I wanted to go with Valle, but since he’s far away and doesn’t get on base even now, I think there’s a pretty large chance that he’ll never see the majors at all. Worley could be a starting major leaguer this year, and might end up as a #4 eventually. Going with the guy who’s likely to contribute in the majors with at least some upside over the high upside guy with one pretty big hole.

  23. I’d put Julio Rodriguez in place of Aumont and then De Fratus to take Valle’s spot once he claims 6.

    Valle was at 6 all along for me. Only difference I have with the list so far is that I have May at 3, with Cosart and Colvin slotting down a space. The rest of the list should be interesting from here on out.

  24. My personal pick for #7 will be Jiwan James. Going more on projection than performance. He’s got plus speed, defense and a great arm. His hitting is a question mark but he’s inexperienced yet. I like his upside.

  25. If Valle does have the ability to play another position (preferably third) then he has a lot of value on a major league roster. If the Phils can maintain a dominating starting staff they would likely have to keep fewer pitchers on the 25-man and he could be a third catcher/pinch hitter.
    I voted for him at 5 so naturally he’s my guy here.

  26. @Sir Alden – sorry, didn’t mean to imply he “got off”, just got through it. There’s a chance it was his bag, but he reportedly passed the drug test, so it would seem less likely to be his. Unless he had just picked it up, but that still wouldn’t explain why he would drop it when he was just being given a ride to his hotel, or why he would even get in the car with a cop if he was “holding”.

    Anyway, judging by ’09, and discounting injury, which should be fine for the spring, I like to think that a burning OF with a seemingly plus bat with a bit of pop beats a plus, but not elite, receiver with some real nice power but lousy on-base stats. Valle’s got to be the #7.

  27. Handzus, you speak the truth.

    derekcarstairs, do you think the rest of us are voting intelligently???

    I agree with MooseWithFleas, Julio Rodriguez needs to make his way onto this list soon. I’m not sure I’d put him ahead of Aumont, but it would be close.

  28. I have to agree with some above posters on Valle NOT being blocked by Chooch. When Valle is ready, Chooch should be on the downslope. And if not, he’ll be close to it, and we can always trade Chooch.

    I think to any team in the MLB, a hitting catcher is an essential piece to their team. Of course a defensive catcher is more important, but you never want to waste a position like some teams do with their catcher. The Phillies roster (when it hits) drops off at slot 9, but on other teams, even good, playoff ones, it drops off at 8 or even 7. That’s just unacceptable.

  29. My #6 is Justin DeFratus. He has come under the radar, but has improved steadily at every level. I believe he will continue to improve and has higher potential. I compare him to Ryan Madson, who had more trouble in the minors, but turned into the best eighth inning man in baseball. I think of DeFratus in the same way. It is encouraging to think of this list so far and to have still more excellent players in the system. I rate Valle below him because of his identified weakness of BB/SO. He does not make enough contact on a regular basis. If he can turn this around, it will improve his status for me. He has more room to grow defensively also. DeFratus is right there already with room to grow.

  30. Valle
    – 2011 – Clearwater
    – 2012 – Reading
    – 2013 – Scranton
    – 2014 – Philadelphia

    Ruiz –
    – 2014 – 35 years old

    Catchers tend not to play to a ripe old age as catchers for the most part.
    By the Time Ruiz is 35 years old it will be time to start looking for another backstop.
    They could split time for a year or so.

    I really don’t see why people are pointing to Valle as being blocked.
    Lakewood is a Long Long way off from Philly.
    Valle is doing well in the Winter League, but his OPS last year in Lakewood was only .728

    While he is a prospect, he is likely not the type that is going to fly through the minors.
    He will develop, just don’t start booking him Hotel Rooms in Philly for 2012 :>

  31. Voted for Worley though i think you can make cases for valle, biddle, and gillies. Several people mentioned moving Valle to 3B, but I’m not sure why. He got good reviews handling the best staff in the league last year. A lot of his value right now is tied to him playing catcher IMHO. As a hitter the pop is nice, but his OBP has dropped each year he’s progressed through the minors and was .298 last year. That production doesn’t play well at 3B on a good ML team.

  32. I saw a few Lakewood games last year and didn’t see anything that made me worry about Valle catching. I agree that they should leave him behind the plate. That being said, I do think it wouldn’t hurt to see if he could play somewhere else. It would only add to his value down the road if we had a catcher who could play other positions.

  33. I voted for Valle, dispite the OBP problems. He has prodigious power, and reports are coming out saying that his receiving skills are developing. And no way he’s blocked. He can split time with Chooch and be a power bat off the bench for a year or two. If anything, it would be great if he was ready a year early (2013) so he could ensure some quality time under Chooch.

  34. Hey Pat. I heard the same , that Valle will be moved eventually to the corner infield spot. I also heard Lakewood OF Michael Dabbs might be a catcher in the making. They like his stick, mental toughness, strong arm and a good enough athlete to make the change quickly.

  35. Teams don’t move guys down the defensive scale until that player shows they can’t handle the tougher position. Valle won’t move unless the team becomes convinced he can’t stick behind the plate.

  36. I like Valle here. We all love Chooch but in 3 yrs when Valle is ready Chooch will probably be done. I think someone talked about Valle catching the young prospects of the future. We could have 1 or 2 of the following pitchers (Cosart, Colvin, May, Rodriguez, Pettibone, Shreve,Biddle, etc) on the big league roster in 2014 when Valle is ready. How he handles them now could be big.

  37. What you folks are saying about Chooch and his age is usually true for catchers. But this catcher is a very late bloomer, does not have a bunch of miles on the engine and has a nearly fanatical following among the pitchers on this team. Unless he totally tanks as a hitter and can no longer play the position competently or unless Valle becomes a hitting demon, y’all are dreaming if you think he won’t be our starting catcher in 2014. I could be wrong, but I’d give even odds on that bet any day of the week.

  38. Not too many other 20 year old right handed bats have hit 26 homers this year: 16 SAL regular season; 3 SAL playoffs; 7 Mexican Pacific League. Wonder how many homers Valle lost this season because of that high left field wall that angles sharply deep to the power alley from from the left field foul line at Lakewood. That wall is not fair to right handed power bats. Just the opposite of the inviting left field walls at CBP or at Reading. Bet Derrick Mitchell has a big home run season if he gets a shot in Reading this year just like Tagg Bozied did this year.

  39. Can’t wait to see the showdown at #7 between Gillies, Biddle, Worley and James. Also, when are the Hyatt and Rizzotti zealots going to get going.

  40. Not to influence the vote or anything… but did anyone see the report on Valle by Mike at Scouting the Sally?

    Pretty optimistic writeup! It’s nice to see impartial sources saying good things about our prospects. He also has a very positive writeup about JRod from a week or so ago (though he seems less optimistic about Jiwan James).

  41. I cant wait to see what Biddle can do, he excites me alot. I have very high hopes for him, but valle is clearly # 6, i saw him play in Lakewood and he impressed me alot.

  42. Valle looks like a future backup C to me. I can see why everyone is willing to bet on him as a prospect but he’s got a very questionable eye at the plate. I’d rather see a higher upside guy like James or Biddle make the list here (but perhaps that is my fantasy baseball side coming out – looking for the upside).

  43. I dont understand all the hype for gillies… he didnt play at all last year… is a speed type player who is always susceptible to those nagging hamstring injuries (believe it or not they are very reoccuring)… projects to have minimal power and therefore will put up a shallow avg if lucky… and put up his best avg year in one of the best hitting ball parks in the minor leagues… IMHO this is one of the players who we have overhyped from the beginning and therefore hang onto for too long…. if he was in another system (and was not involved in the original cliff lee deal) we would say he is just a marginal prospect and is not even in consideration for top 1o status.

  44. I’m sure Valle is going to win because he’s a position player and has high upside. But in this range I think Worley and De Fratus need to get serious consideration. They aren’t the popular high upside guys. But Worley looks like a legitimate 4, 5 starter. That is a legitimate prospect. De Fratus I think there is reasonable confidence can be solid late inning reliever. That also is a rare and significant prospect. I mean look at the contracts that the Blanton’s and late inning guys get. Prospects with a good likelihood of fulfilling those roles deserve to be top 10.

  45. I think Valle is a no brainer. In 168 games last year he had 34 doubles, 26 homers, and 102 RBI’s. Bow he does need to work on his pitch selection and contact rates, but his power potential is hard to ignore. Not many 19/20 yea olds put up those power numbers.

    It is really exciting to have guys like Singleton, Valle, and Santana who have so much power potential and could be future stars in this game.

    Also the only way I see Valle getting moved to 3B is if Cameron Rupp becomes a serious prospect. Only because Rupp could only possibly play 1B and C. But I dont think Rupp becomes anything more than a Rod Barajas/Bengie Molina type of catcher.

  46. De Fratus should’nt be top 10. Unless the guy is flat out un-hit-able, relievers should not be considered in the top 10 in any system that has any depth at other positions. Most all great closers start out as starters. Even a guy like Madson, was a starter. I can only think of one star MLB closer who was a reliever from the start in the minors. Minor league relievers either become middle relievers or relief specialists.

  47. Gillies is going to prove his worth next year and then no one will bash him. When he hit .330 with 10 hr, 20 sb, and 60 rbis, jhe will be in the top 3.

  48. Hope Gillies has more than 20 sb. His value is as a legitimate lead-off man with a high .obp and 50 SB potential…

  49. As usual I appreciate your works on DeFratus but there is always hope.
    You have to admit he was exceptional in the AFL.
    PS. I would like your view on trading top prospects + for Soria

  50. The drug case against Gillies was dropped; so, he no longer has legal problems.

    Regarding the matter of whether or not Gillies uses cocaine or has a cocaine problem, the only thing I ever read was Gillies’ own denial and his claim that he took and passed a drug test four hours after his arrest.

    I would be interested in knowing if, in fact, a drug test was administered by a credible party and if, in fact, the results have been disclosed. If anybody has read the story on the Internet of such testing, please let me know who administered the test, the results and where I can find the story on-line.

  51. Gillies is actually a very good guy and liked very much by all his teammates. After his season two years ago combined with his physical skills and energy level, he would be a prospect in anyone’s system and it has nothing to do with being in the Lee trade. Yes, last year was a lost season for him, after a very strong showing in ST at the major league camp. If you’ve seen him play, you should understand that he’s definitely still a prospect. He’s certainly someone I will be watching and rooting hard for.

  52. MiLB’s drug testing policy includes cocaine and all other illegal substances. He’s never failed any of those random tests either. Combined with his clean test after arrest and its pretty obvious that he doesn’t have a coke problem.

    My guess is it was one of the two following issues:

    1. It was already in the vehicle and dumb hick cop assumed it was his.
    2. Gillies was holding it for someone…stupid yes but not a drug problem really.

    Either way, its in the past and it won’t effect him going forward.

    I’d personally round out the Top 10 with Valle here, Biddle, Gillies, Worley, Santana.

  53. ****If you’ve seen him play, you should understand that he’s definitely still a prospect. He’s certainly someone I will be watching and rooting hard for.

    This….very much THIS.

    Even his neutralized numbers from the High Desert are very impressive for a CF prospect with a great arm like Tyson.

  54. I think Domingo Santana, now with another year of expierence and given his age, will break through at Lakewood next year. He is going to be a big time outfielder one day, but i dont see why he should be in the top 10 because he did not have a great year last year,

  55. Hudson might have a tough time making the Top 30 after his horrible season and I have Dugan at 25. However, it looks like Dugan might be playing 1B and 3B at Lakewood so that could help his value because the OF is quite crowded there. The #20 to #40 are the hardest for me because we have very good players who are not going to make the Top 30.

  56. Dugan is around 20 for me. Hudson is off my top 30 and I did not seriously consider him. He hit for a low average, when he did connect he didn’t hit for power (not even a triple for a guy his speed?) and his plate discipline sucked. I see almost no redeeming qualities there.

  57. Valle, followed by Gillies/Worley for me.

    I was very high on Gillies last year after spring training. if he stays fit he should have a great year

  58. Santana scares me cause he’s so young and so much is unknown. Now this is true about all young prospects, but his 2010 season was unspectacular. However, I feel that others have passed him for a variety of reasons, not just because of his performance. I feel because Worley can help out now AND is a starting pitcher he’s moved passed Santana this yr. I also feel that Biddle has passed Santana and probably DeFratus because he can help out now. I do value pitching and closeness to the majors more than I value an unrefined, teenage slugger.

    I have Santana 12th, probably low for most as I value Gillies higher than him. And Dugan 29th.

  59. Really good discussion points. Thanks.
    Agree there is no reason to move Valle. If he gets a full season of AAA and his bat is ready, then it is time to look into some position flexibility. Until then I would want him focused on catching all the time. He should get some atbats as a DH as he progresses.
    DeFratus was a starter until last season. Reports said he stuff ‘plays up’ even better out of the pen and he was already a quality starter. I think he profiles as a very consistent, low walk, decent K guy. If he could become the best 8th inning reliever in baseball for 5 years I would rate him quite high.
    I like Worley but think his upside is John Garland and there is still a decent risk he is no better than Carpenter. Worley had a good year, but was not dominant. I think his good showings in the Majors are being weighed too highly. Bastardo had a couple great starts and is still an unknown.
    James and Gillies are both speed CF with some question on their batting future. Will Gillies have an .400 OBP? Will James be a Rollins type hitter? Both are likely to make major league appearances on their speed and defense alone but I am not sure if either one will be a starter. I like Gilles much more since he did have great numbers (hitters league I know) and looked like that exciting type player in Spring Training, even if his numbers were not great.
    Altherr is getting some prospect love for much the same reasons but he has neither the speed nor the production of James and Gillies. Maybe he projects to have more power.
    I have been hoping Dugan could move to 3B since he was drafted.

  60. Alan-

    Yeah that was a little unclear. I meant DeFratus is close and that I’d take a lefty with high upside over a corner OF player with lots of power.

  61. It is so hard to rate the Cal league. One stadium just went green with solor panels but they might add wind turbines since the wind is almost constantly 30-40 mph.

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