Scheduling updates

Hi everyone. I wanted to give a quick update as to my thought process going forward. The Rule 5 draft is December 9th, and my plan is to start the Reader Top 30 the next day. We’ll do one per day or so during the week. Factor in Christmas and stuff, and we’ll finish sometime in the middle of January. After we finish the Reader Top 30, I’ll unveil my top 30, in detail, and thanks to a suggestion in the comments, I’ll go one spot at a time. With each writeup, I’ll also include a poll question about the prospect, which should hopefully fuel more discussion. In the meantime, I plan on writing a few pieces, and I need to start collecting the data to plug into my spreadsheets to calculate the SONAR scores for 2010. So, look for more articles from me in the coming weeks/months, as well as the start of the Reader Top 30 and then a new approach to my Top 30. As always, thanks for reading!

129 thoughts on “Scheduling updates

  1. “thanks to a suggestion in the comments, I’ll go one spot at a time.”

    Thanks – I’m glad I suggested it! I think it will really work well for everyone including, hopefully, you.

  2. The question becomes ‘should we try to trade Brown now or should we just bite the bullet and release him outright?’

  3. On the Dom Brown situation.

    I keep thinking this over and the conclusion I reach each time is that signing Jayson Werth is, by far, the best way for the Phillies to deal with that outfield situation over the next few years. Werth is the most valuable player, he’s right handed (please, stop with “split” information – yes, it matters, but they get tied in knots by lefty specialists – anybody who watches the games can see this) and he’s probably the only guy you would want to have there for more than a couple of years (Ibanez and Victorino are relatively expendable). Maybe RAJ will pull another rabbit out of his hat, but, otherwise, they need to make nice and sign him. Their other options are really unattractive.

  4. Giving a 32 year old Jayson Werth a 5 year deal is pretty unattractive too though. He likely just had his peak season…I doubt he’ll continue to improve as he enters his mid 30s.

  5. Yes, Werth probably had his best season in 2009, but he has the type of body and skill set which should age exceptionally well, short of a big injury. The idea, I think, would be to replace everyone else in the outfield but him over a 3-4 year period. It makes sense, particularly when the team is trying to compete for another championship.

  6. PP, only thing I’d be wary of is taking too long to produce your own top 30. You probably don’t want to have the list entirely unpublished a month after BA, Sickels and BP have given their own Phillies list. What you might do is publish the list early and then give profiles and write-ups on guys from January to March.

  7. Sickels has Drabek 1,D’arnaud8 and Gose 9 on deep Blue Jays list. His comments on D’arnaud and Gose were not exactly flattering though.

  8. Dom went 0 for 4? Is there any chance we could trade him and get Bruntlett back? RH bat, can play a little OF, could offer some protection behind Ryan…as soon as we get that done maybe we could work on extending baez’s contract another year or two.

  9. Todd Zolecki:

    The Phillies announced their Minor League player development staff today:

    We already knew Ryne Sandberg will manage Triple-A Lehigh Valley and Mickey Morandini will manage Class A Williamsport.

    Les Lancaster joins the organization as the rookie-level Gulf Coast Phillies pitching coach. Mark Parent will manager Double-A Reading after managing Class A Lakewood last season. Chris Truby will manager Lakewood after managing Williamsport last season. Here is a look at the rest of the staffs:

    Lehigh Valley: Sandberg (manager), Sal Rende (coach) and Rod Nichols (pitching coach).
    Reading: Parent (manager), Frank Cacciatore (coach) and Bob Milacki (pitching coach).
    Clearwater: Dusty Wathan (manager), TBA (coach), Dave Lundquist (pitching coach).
    Lakewood: Truby (manager), Gregg Legg (coach), Steve Schrenk (pitching coach).
    Williamsport: Morandini (manager), Jorge Valandia (coach) and Lance Carter (pitching coach).
    Gulf Coast Phillies: Roly deArmas (manager), Kevin Jordan (coach), Carlos Arroyo (pitching coach) and Lancaster (pitching coach).

  10. Nice bump for Parent, well deserved. He’s probably a stronger managerial candidate in the bigs than Sandberg is at this point. He was tremendous with Lieberthal’s development and working with young pitchers when he was the Phils backup catcher in the mid to late 90s

  11. 0 for 4 for Dom Brown is not a problem , of course. If you hit .400 you going 0-6 every ten at-bats. he also walked, scored a run, and made contact 3/4 times. He could have hit the ball hard here and just had tough luck. Also, there might have been a blown call on the K. But time will tell how he does.

  12. mikemike—-certainly a possibility—not sure they want to ante up for that many early choices in the draft.

  13. The Phillies will offer Werth arbitration; I’m sure they’d love to have him back on a 1 year deal in the unlikely event that he’d accept. If he rejects and goes elsewhere, the Phillies get extra picks in what looks to be a deep draft. There’s an upside to this—the cupboard is getting a little bare down below.

  14. The problem is not that the cupboard is bare, the problem is that you can’t open the really good stuff in cupboard for another two years.

  15. Let’s hope they are able to resist trading the Singletons and Cosarts for some short term, immediate need.

  16. Zolecki blogs that they will offer Werth arbitration, but not to Chad Durbin.

    mwbbfan, if the Phillies would be apprehensive about arbitration costs, it would be more of a concern about getting burned by a $12-15 million deal than having to pay for two draft picks. That’d be somewhere south of $2 million at most.

  17. No surprises there. Durbin isn’t worth offering Arbitration to. Resigning Contreras guaranteed that Durbin wont be back regardless of what the FO is saying about wanting him back. Yeah, they’ll take him…IF he’s cheap. At $2-3 million, he’s not worth it.

  18. I’m hopeful Boston works out a deal for Upton. Phillies the become the front runner for Werth. Justin Upton is worth considering because he’s only 23, proven and has a very team friendly contract. Brown would have to be a center piece of any deal.

  19. ****I’m hopeful Boston works out a deal for Upton. Phillies the become the front runner for Werth. ****

    If that happens, Werth becomes Jason Bay from last year. No teams he really wants to go to bidding for him. At that point, I’d hope that the Royals make him a big offer and the Union & Boras pressure him into taking it.

    Or the Pirates.

  20. Keep in mind that the potential group of draftees for the June ’11 draft have been dubbed as “loaded” and deep.
    Getting those two extra early draft choices has become essential for this franchise’s future. Though future pitching appears to be more than adequate to bring better arms in ’12-’13, the system lacks position players for the infield and for a righty hitter with power to offset the left-leaning lineup. Now, the best prospect hitters in the system are Singleton and Brown, both lefty hitters.

    Positions needing filling soon are 3rd base, shortstop, catcher, with a righty outfielder w power. We can expect Amaro to give significant attention to those areas in that draft and our chances are good to get what we need with those two extra early choices which could be as good as a #1 choice sacrificed by the team signing Werth.

    I believe that this has been the plan for awhile: not being able to sign Werth for those long term deals and great monies would yield the chance to answer our future needs in a draft that most pundits agree is one of the all-time deepest/best groups.

    All of which will make us all watch the June ’11 draft with even more intensity.

  21. Lmao. I’d like him back at 4/$56, but that’s pie in the sky. I just hope for once the floor comes out of the rf market with Boston(Upton) yanks, mets and angels(Crawford) on the sidelines.

  22. Art, they take best available they can sign as opposed to taking positions of need. You can always deal for need with the better talent you draft and get more value.

  23. My apologies for kicking off the confusing chatter on Brown. Yes folks, I was just kidding about the 0-4.


    P.S. But if he takes the collar next game they should really try to trade him now before the bottom drops out on him.

  24. I think Dom brown is overrated he did nothing in the post games and is doing nothing in the winter games. He can’t field, he is not ready for the majors and should remain in the minors. The phillies need a good outfielder.

  25. Oh please, Browns fielding in fine. I think we all agree he has good speed/arm to make up for those “bad routes” that he takes.

  26. Some people bring up a question that I Wonder would you do, if pittsburg offers you Mc cluthen or arizona offers upton ,would you move say brown, and a top prospect like cosart or Singleton for them plus maybe a lesser player. so the question is a 4- 1 on a young proven player, and then move victorino out .

  27. If some team called Pittsburg calls up and offers some player named Mc cluthen, I’m going to be a little wary of making that deal.

  28. Can people please stop posting really silly comments about Domonic Brown. Listen, he’s a rookie, he’s not perfect, he’s going to make mistakes. He is a little rough around the edges but he is brimming with talent and energy. Some training you can do in the minors, but you still have to go through a learning process in the majors. Brown is (or very soon will be) ready to start the process. Everything suggests he is going to be a good player soon and a very good player in the not-so-distant future.

  29. Clearly, Dom is not major league ready yet but the question is whether he’d learn what he needs to learn better at LHV or in Philly. My gut is that they’ll start him at LHV and sign a RF for 2 years like Dye or Magglio. If they do that, the competition for the last bench spot will be very interesting. Plus, look at the competition for an OF spot at LHV. Brown, Mayberry, and many others.

  30. Andrew McCutchen is a rising start for pittsburg and is fast ,righthanded batter, my question was if he is availabe which I heard they listen , would you trade brown and two others for him then move victor ino it makes you cheaper in center, with a up and coming stud outfielder, didnt think that was a stupid question,and hopefully gillies is near ready for when ibanez leave next year/

  31. I doubt Pittsburgh would trade McCutchen, he’s not even arbitration eligible yet. But I would not make that trade. McCutchen is not THAT much better than Dom Brown is likely to be in a year or two.

  32. I’m not all that sure I’d trade Brown straight up for McCutcheon as I am not sure how much of McCutcheon’s game is based on speed as opposed to his other skills, but I sure as heck would not trade Brown and several other top prospects for him. If I’m the Pirates and the Phillies offer Brown, Gillies and one of our solid relief prospects (Bastardo or DeFratus) for McCutcheon, I accept that trade in a heartbeat.

    Justin Upton is a more interesting call because Upton has a legitimate shot of becoming a true superstar and he’s already a hell of a player. I probably would trade Brown and a hot shot prospect or two for him.

  33. My problem with upton is his contract and attitude.If he doesnt become that superstar then you have to pay him 14.5 a year for two years i believe.

  34. Okay – here’s the proposed trade: Brown, Bastardo and Valle for Upton – do you pull the trigger? What if DeFratus is substituted for Bastardo – do you still do it?

    This kind of decisions separates the wheat from the chaff in the world of GMs. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Ruben is floating these kinds of trades around the Phils front office (not necessarily an Upton trade, but something equally dramatic). Say what you want about him, but RAJ he gets his mind set on doing something (and you never really know what that “something” is), he often finds a way to get it done.

  35. Anyway, if the Phils cannot sign Werth, it seems that the next best option would be to try to sign Ordonez to a one year deal with a second year option that includes a legitimate buy out. I’m thinking that contract would be something like 2 years, $18 million with a $ 3-5 million buyout for year two. Given the way Ordonez absolutely smokes left-handed pitching and that his value is depressed because he is coming off an ankle injury, this type of contract would make sense.

    Having Ordonez, Brown, Ibanez, Francisco and Victorino should give them plenty of depth to get through 2011 and having an option on Ordonez for 2012 can help for a short-term succession plan for when Ibanez leaves, but also gives them the room to move on in case they have acquired another player or Ben Francisco or Gillies proves to be a more cost-effective option.

  36. ****Okay – here’s the proposed trade: Brown, Bastardo and Valle for Upton – do you pull the trigger? What if DeFratus is substituted for Bastardo – do you still do it? ****

    The DBacks would laugh their arse off if you offered that little for Upton. Try adding a guy like Colvin or Cosart and you might start getting close to their asking price.

  37. The Upton trade is a tough match for the Phils because it seems pretty clear Arizona wants top level, MLB ready prospects and not A type prospects and the Phils have depth to trade at A if they wanted to, but not a whole lot of depth at the top of the farm system. I would be hesitant to move DeFratus, Bastardo, or Brown because they are ready to contribute at the MLB level in the next 12 months and I’d be hesitant to trade Valle because of the difficulty of finding talent at that position, assuming the Phillies believe he projects as a big league starter someday. I’d prefer going 1 or 2 years on a free agent like catch suggested and keeping the depth in our farm system until mid-season when we’ll have a much better idea of how much depth we do or do not have in certain areas.

  38. “The DBacks would laugh their arse off if you offered that little for Upton.”

    They can laugh all they want – it’s probably why they are not going to end up trading him. If I had to trade Brown and Cosart (and other spare parts), it would be a tough call. No way, however, would I trade Brown and Singleton.

  39. If RA would’t trade Dom to get Halladay, he’s not trading him to get either Upton. If the Phils decide, and I think they already have, that Brown is not yet ready, he’ll be sent to LHV and be ready to replace Raul. They’ll then try to sign a guy like Dye or Magglio for two years, I don’t think either signs for one year, but I think its more likely that both of them sign with AL teams so they can also DH. That will force the Phils to look for a guy in a trade. Willingham looks available but I’m not sure of an OF with him in RF and Raul in LF. It will be interesting to see who RA comes up with to play RF.

  40. Dom might turn out to be a defensive improvement in RF over who plays there to start next year…
    For all you Cliff Lee guys, 6 yrs and $140M still isn’t enough to get him signed as he holds out for a 7th year! Having said that, it would be a lot easier to stomach if Gillies has a great season next year and looks major league worthy.

  41. Murrey: It seems the plan to ready Gillies for ’12 was in place when he got injured and couldn’t play virtually at all in ’10. The FO now is hoping that Gillies picks it up and shows ready by ’12’s beginning.

    Now….wouldn’t it be great if that happens.?…but where is a righty OFer to fit in for lineup balance (Gillies is a lefty hitter)? Question still needs answering.

  42. And, by the way, it seems that the Phillies have examined the list of players available for the Rule 5 draft but found none interesting enough to choose by the time their turn comes up. Thus, the completion of the 40-man ahead of the Rule 5 draft.

    Question: in case they change their minds by the time of that draft, can they take such a guy and afterwards drop one from their 40 in order to accommodate that pick?

  43. the facts are Dom Brown’s fielding is horrible, he’s just not good enough for the majors right now. he’s not major league ready. It is not silly comments it’s peoples opion. But when making comments about how bad Mayberry is, it is ok to go on and on about how bad he is. Mayberry may be a little older than Brown, but when he was Brown’s age he was and still is a better out fielder than Brown. Brown to replace Werth, not a good replacement.

  44. It is completely unrealistic to expect Gillies to be ready in 2012. He clearly needs to show a great deal as he repeats Reading but that will not be a jumping point straight to Philadelphia. Lets just hope he establishes himself as a prospect by 2012.

  45. Brown looked fine as an outfielder in Reading as he grew comfortable. He is better out there than many alternatives thrown out as possible replacements. He is very athletic with a strong arm. He will improve quickly as he appears to be a fast study.
    The ball jumps off his bat.

  46. “the facts are Dom Brown’s fielding is horrible, he’s just not good enough for the majors right now. he’s not major league ready. It is not silly comments it’s peoples opion. But when making comments about how bad Mayberry is, it is ok to go on and on about how bad he is. Mayberry may be a little older than Brown, but when he was Brown’s age he was and still is a better out fielder than Brown. Brown to replace Werth, not a good replacement.”

    Ugh. We are in sabermetric hell.

  47. Sure, we’ve got everyone slamming Brown, so let’s move on to Gillies. 2010 proved NOTHING about whether Gillies is or is not a good prospect. He was hurt almost the entire year. As far as I can tell he is still quite a good prospect and has an excellent upside. I would still rather have him over Gose.

  48. I’ll try to remember you guys about Gillies soon enough. Check in about July ’11. THEN we’ll talk.

    Prediction: he’ll be playing Phils CF by ’13.

  49. “The ball jumps off Brown’s bat.” I was watching some video of Brown and it seemed to me that he hits the ball with a special force. The crowd begins to “ooh” and “ahh” and this seems to be unlike other players. In fact, the Phils had him do some hitting before they drafted him and i think it was Chuck Lamar who said that they couldn’t believe what they were seeing. I think he might have more power than anyone on the team besides Howard and if you look at him it seems like he’s going to put some muscle on that frame. That 440 ft. homerun he hit against the Giants- no one else on the team could do that except Howard, who could definitely beat that. Maybe Utley,Werth or Ibanez could do it but I don’t know. But, time will tell what becomes of him.

  50. Brown might become great I don’t know if he is or not. My concern is the lineup is too lefthanded the giants proved that in the playoffs,with there pitching, just looking to get a young right handed bat in the lineup with equal value. To me Upton or Mc cluthen are good young players with nice upside. We don’t to my knowledge have any one in the system with righthanded power who is near ready to contribute.

  51. Brown will be a very good ballplayer in Philly, just not quite yet. He does need to improve as an outfielder and on the bases and I’m sure he will. This kid has all kinds of talent however so give him a chance to fully develop.
    I expect the Phils will sign a righthanded RF (Magglio? he was not offered arbitration) to a 2 yr deal. This will allow Brown to take Raul’s roster spot in 2012 and Gillies could take the RF’s spot in 2013 if he performs well next year. While I know Gillies didn’t do well last year at Reading, although he was starting to hit when he got hurt, having watched this kid in spring training last year, he has immense skill and Philly will love the way he plays. He has “it” and hopefully this past season has helped him learn what he needs to focus on.

  52. Since I started this mess with my joke about Brown (yes – it was a JOKE! Didn’t you see the little smiley at the end, the international symbol for a joke!?!?) here’s my take:

    Brown will be a star – but not next year. He’ll be very good mind you. Offensively I think he’ll be fine – defensively he’s definitely got some work to do. It’s interesting, I kept hearing about his “issues” defensively and thought “geez – it’s the outfield, how bad can it be?”. But I am a season ticket holder and was at quite a few of the games he played and you can see the concern. I think he’s a guy who will make some amazingly athletic plays and also turn some basic plays into, uhh, amazing plays. But I have no doubt he’ll be fine eventually.

    I am like many of you on this site and I cross my fingers that they could move Ibanez, eating maybe half his contract. To me that’s the best option (and hey, it’s not my money! Oh wait, I am a season ticket holder, yes it is!) if they can work that out. I think Brown will need a platoon situation, and the little we saw of Ben Franciso I am fine with that platoon. I am assuming Ben can play right field?

  53. mikemike…did you watch the World Series at all? Texas is far from a lefty-heavy lineup and they struggled even more against the Giants pitching than the Phillies did. The Giants were just pitching really well. Replacing Werth with Brown won’t hurt the Phillies nearly as much as everybody thinks, at least not against left-handed pitching.

    Look, in any given season, a team will face a right-handed pitcher in about 70% of it’s at bats. Using OPS as a measure (admittedly not perfect, but you get the point) the Phillies last year were 7th in the league against RH (.736) pitching and 4th against LH pitching (.767). The biggest problem the offense had was that Howard and Utley were not other-worldly against RH pitching as they have been in the past.

    This is not to say that I think that Brown will produce just as much as Werth. I don’t, at least not in 2011. This is to say that the lineup balance talk is all just a myth perpetrated by people who don’t look at the data.

  54. Yes i watch the playoff, i dont think texas is near as good a offense team as us. so what they did against the giants means nothing. i am concern with what our lineup does against lefthanded pitching

  55. mikemike
    I really hate to disagree with you but change “as us” to we were”. I don’t think the 2009 team was much better offensively. But the September run against a lot of bottom rung to mediocre pitchers gave really a false message.
    Besides Cholly missed the move that would of put him in the HOF.

  56. Gillies has a lot to prove before we can call him a future major league regular.

    Were his numbers at High Desert seriously inflated because of the home park and the league? Is he injury-prone? Gillies’ legal problems may have disappeared and he may have issued a strong denial about drug use, but what is the truth about Gillies and cocaine?

    If he does well in Reading this year, then maybe the conversation about Gillies can turn serious.

  57. Brown brings speed as well—–the alternatives mentioned bring poor defense and zero speed—-Ordonez,Francisco ect. Speed is an enormous attribute and makes up for many sins. Imagine Vic in center minus his plus speed. Despite the Gold Gloves, he often gets poor jumps and takes bad routes.
    I too hope Gillies prooves me wrong but he looked overmatched in the games I attended both in Reading and Harrisburg. Not fooled by breaking balls but overmatched by several diffent pitchers fastballs.

  58. To Art D – you can drop someone from the 40 man roster at any time in order to pick someone else up.

    I do not think they will be drafting anyone because they will probably already have at least 2 rookies in the bullpen.

    I believe the Phiilies will leave Brown down, platoon Gload in right with Francisco or Mayberry.

  59. GregA,

    I agree that the reference to the Giant’s makes little sense since they really didn’t face dominating left-handed pitching in that series, just good pitching overall.

    The problem with the Phillies against lefties isn’t when facing left-handed starters (which is where most of their at-bats come from) because most starters don’t have significant splits. The problem with their lefty dominant line-up is that they are very succeptable to late-inning specialists and they get worse with Brown in the lineup in 2011.

    Dom Brown has the chance to become a very good player but he is not yet ready for the majors. His best fit is batting 7th in 2012 as the replacement for Ibanez. For next year, they need a stop-gap right-handed right fielder

  60. the draft picks from losing werth and Brown skill set justify not signing Werth to long term deal. I still think combo of Brown/Ben will put up comparable numbers to Werth at a fraction of the cost and they land two good players in the draft to boot. More importantly…..Utley and Howard need to return to form.

  61. “the draft picks from losing werth and Brown skill set justify not signing Werth to long term deal. I still think combo of Brown/Ben will put up comparable numbers to Werth at a fraction of the cost and they land two good players in the draft to boot. More importantly…..Utley and Howard need to return to form.”

    That’s actually not a bad point, but I still think, to be safe, they need to acquire another established hitter. I know he’s hardly the model of plate discipline, but it would be fun to see Vlad Guerrero play for the Phillies after all of those years of his bashing their heads in (God, was he ever a “Phillie Killer”).

  62. If we’re going to talk up Vlad Guerrero, what about Manny Ramirez? It wouldn’t be his first time playing under Charlie Manuel.

  63. I think at a minimum its good that RAJ is showing patience this year and waiting for the market to shape itself. Between current free agents that slip through the early stages and lower their asking prices to potential non-tenders coming up shortly, he appears to be sitting back and waiting for the right bat at the right price and for the right years. Guys like Vlad and Manny are unsignable right now on a deal that is very advantageous for the Phils, but if they are out there 2-3 months from now, the opportunity to play for a contender might be real attractive to one of them on a one year deal. Of course the Manny option could only work in LF and I’m not sure I’d even think about that…

  64. RAJ, like all GMs, had to wait until today to see which Type As were offered arb. As a result, Scott Downs is no longer a consideration. Dan Wheeler however is very much a possibility to replace Durbin and Magglio is now a serious thought for RF as is Berkman, if they think he can play the OF (he says he can).

  65. Manny Ramirez is to a baseball team what the Anthrax virus is to the air we breathe. He is a human pathogen. If he comes to them, they should drop what they are doing and run in the other direction.

  66. I can’t see how you would give up a 1st rd pick in what is supposed to be a strong draft for a lefty specialist.

  67. If the Phils miss out on Werth I hope he becomes a Tiger. 19th pick would be sweet, plus a sandwhich pick. Having Brown, and Ibanez in conjunction with Utley, HowRd, Is too many LH in key hitting slots. If you sign a guy like Diaz to platoon you have no back up CF. The back up 1b should be a RH bat to spell Howard bs lefties. RAJ has some work to balance this tram.

  68. murry I know its a strong draft but this team tends to not want to get into big signing bonus, they like to get high school kids later and try to sign them for nice money ,but nothing over the top. Remember they are one of the lower teams in draft spending, and international spending. So my point is too many high draft choice might not be to there liking. but a left handed specialist would help us now. and we are a now team,

  69. sorry one more thing Guys like ordanez, ramirez, berkman, bad oufielders combined with ibanez, it would kill poor victorino

  70. Someone mentioned they want the Tigers to sign Werth because of getting the 19th pick in the draft. Question: Since the Tigers already signed Martinez from Boston, a Type A Free agent (I think), who gets their first pick, the highest rated free agent or the first to sign? Also how are the secondary picks handed out? Anyone know how that plays out??

  71. Phils would get the Tigers higher pick because Werth is ranked higher than VMart. Sox would get the Togers next pick.

  72. What impressed me last night watching Valle play for Los Mochis on the Net was not his long line drive three run home run deep over the left center field fence. Seen that before. But how well he played left field. Caught a ball off his left shoulder while going back in front of the fence to catch up with it and then caught a liner hit right at him. Looked like he has been playing there for the last three or four years instead of catching. Interesting to see how much he plays the outfield as the Mexican Pacific League starts its second half.

  73. Valle in the outfield? Wha? Didn’t know he was that much of an athlete. A little while back some “experts” were thinking he’d end up at 3rd base…but that stuff seemed to die out quickly.

    MAYBE, the Phils FO likes to see what full capabilities he has. If only there were a few system catchers ahead of him in our system…Add “catcher” to want list along with SS, 3B…

  74. Valle’s position in the Mexican League is probably more to do with team needs than anything else. Those Caribbean teams play more to win than to satisfy the needs of any parent club. The only thing the Phillies can dictate to those teams is to pull their prospects off the club.

  75. Just as an FYI… Werth has the highest score of any free agent, so even if a team signed multiple Type A’s, we would get the higher pick.

  76. We are almost assured a first round pick for werth. Angels seem to be the team that can sign him and have a secured first pick.

  77. What are the rules for a guy going to a Japanese team? Can anybody go anytime or are there rules on eligibility?

  78. I think domestic players are bound by the same rules as free agents are. A player such as Mathieson could probably request to go to Japan, but the Phillies would in all likliehood turn him down. And MLB and NPB have a working relationship where they would not permit players to simply jump their contracts.

  79. Assuming no surprise team jumps into the Werth sweepstakes, the best-case scenario would be that the Tigers sign Werth; the worst-case that the Angels sign Werth.

    If the Tigers sign Werth, we will get their first-round pick, which is No. 19. If the Angels sign Werth, we would only get their second-round pick.

  80. If I’m the Red Sox, Werth is at the top of my wish list. He is a very good fit for that team with his power and athleticism. He also brings the Phils the Sox’s first round pick.

  81. I would like to see the phillies take Michael Dubee back. His stats are good and it would be cool for him to be working with Rich.

  82. Looks like they sat Dom Brown. After going 1-19 they plugged in Colin Curtis, a Yankees prospect, who went 2-4 today, so why not keep Curtis out there? This whole winter ball idea is turning into a nightmare. First he can’t get into a game for a week because he’s not deemed prepared and then, because of rust, doesn’t produce. I don’t think the people down there care if Dom Brown isn’t getting the playing time we wanted him to get. Oberkfell, the manager, worked for the Phils in the past but now works for the rival Mets. How is he going to get rid of the rust if he doesn’t play? This move is Bochyesque and probably this style drives players nuts because they want time to work through their problems and its a sign of a absence of faith in their abilities. The kid can’t even celebrate Thanksgiving properly- unless they celebrate this in the Dominican Republic, I don’t know. He’s a human being and it’s hard to be in a foreign country. I say if he’s just going to ride the pine maybe we should just shut him down and say goodbye until Spring Training. I keep thinking that perhaps we shouldn’t have kept him up with the big club as our like fourth pinch-hitter. This took him out of his rhythym and created rust. Just put Dobbs in there and let him play everyday in Lehigh Valley, it really doesn’t matter, how much impact can a 4th pinch-hitter have on the outcome of a game?

  83. After a mention about Dobbs, I thought I’d change the subject a bit. Top 30s is coming. I see Harold Garcia is hot right now. Brown is not. Galvis is the one that needs discussion.

    Many people, on this site, have given up on Freddy. On the face of it, it’s not hard to do that. He’s had more than a season to acclimate to AA but aside from an occasional hot spell he’s not doing it with the bat. He has that one marvelous tool… his glove and arm (yes that’s one tool). If you’ve ever seen him play in the field, you get to see that tool immediately. But the bat just ain’t cuttin’ it.

    But hold on there folks. Do a little research. Galvis was only 21 this year. Harold Garcia is 3 years and 1 month OLDER than Galvis. At this same point in their careers, Harold was in the GCL. Harold has the more solid body. He’s listed at 5’11 190. Freddy’s 5’10” 170. They are both switch hitters so there’s no gain there. I guess the question is can Freddy put some bulk on his frame and can he make better contact.

    Another comp to look at is Cesar Hernandez. Cesar is 6 months YOUNGER than Galvis but he’s only in Williamsport. He’s listed at 5’10” 160. A lot smaller than either Galvis or Garcia. Can he put the bulk on or will he max out at Galvis’ size? He’s a switch hitter also.

    So before we throw the baby out with the bath water, where should Galvis go in the top 30? Even though he’s young, can you take his lack of hitting and project him out of the top 30? Do you say that because of his age, does he have more upside than Hernandez and even Garcia? Is he one of those guys that you can slide in anywhere from 25 to 30? There will be a lot of guys that can fit into those slots. I have a list of over 40 guys who would have made my Phillie top 30 in past years. A lot of guys will be getting votes in that stretch. There might be 4 or 5 guys with 50 votes each. We might have to have runoffs in those slots.

    But back to Freddy…. I think he deserves to be in the top 20 but I’m interested in a discussion about it.

  84. If I had to put them in order I would rank them Hernandez, Galvis, Garcia. I’m not crazy about Garcia. He’s slight, doesn’t play shortstop, he doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power. If he can’t maintain a high batting average in the majors, I don’t see him having much value.

    Galvis is definitely top 30, likely around the 15-20 range. The criticisms of Galvis are the same we’ve had the last few years. So I don’t see downgrading him now. He rose from A+ to AA and his OPS stayed virtually the same. So he had a better season at the plate. If he stalls or regresses, then I’d reevaluate him.

    Hernandez I’m very high on, he’s either on the cusp of the top 10 or already on it. He’s probably our most underrated prospect right now.

  85. Galvis just turned 21 a couple of weeks ago. His glove already has been major-league ready at SS for several years. My hope is that, by the time he is 25 (i.e., the 2015 season), Galvis is the Phillies’ top infield utility guy, capable of filling in at SS, 2B and 3B.

    Galvis needs to draw more walks and develop some pop, and I would continue to be patient to see if his offense can rise to a respectable level, say, a .700 OPS. If he can perform at that level in the majors by the time he is 25, Galvis will be a valuable player.

  86. Dan…you can’t sour on Dom Brown for one week of play…most players are not going to be sharp after being shut down for awhile. Brown was coming off injuries and did not play much at the end of the season. He very well could go 10-19 this week and all is well. Brown will be playing for another month and then he will take some time off and then will report to Clearwater,

  87. The facts are Dom Brown is not ready for the majors, you can’t make excuses for not playing good. Garcia as well as many other players are in a foreign country playing ball every time they play here. I am sure it is hard for them but they manage to play ball well. Dom Brown is not the first player to play ball away from home. The facts are Brown is a better minor league player than major league player. He belongs in the minors.

  88. “The facts are Brown is a better minor league player than major league player. ”

    Is there ANY player who this would not be true of?!

  89. What makes you so down on brown? a mini slump after a layoff? Can’t understand your logic. The only facts you can show for your statements is he is 1-19 in mexican league after not playing for months. makes little sense to me.

  90. I don’t disagree what he should start next year in the minors, but it certainly isn’t because he’s 1 for 19 in the Mexican League.

  91. you make up excuses for Dom Browns lack of playing but it’s ok to talk down on Mayberry or any other player.

  92. Evaluation of Mayberry or any other player’s potential is based on hundreds or even thousands of at-bats over multiple seasons. If you can’t see the difference between that and 20 at-bats in the Mexican league then its probably a good idea to remain anonymous..

  93. Brown is not in the Mexican League he is in the Dominican Winter League.

    Garcia is not in a foreign country, he is in his own country.

    If people are going to base downgrading Garcia on not playing SS and not hitting for power, the same applies to Cesar Hernandez, maybe moreso. And no need to quote the WPL slugging percentage as many of the doubles and triples there are factored by the limitations of some of the OF’s there. Looks like a singles hitter to me, but if both of these players can continue to get base hits at a high enough percentage, they would be at the high end of MLB Middle Infielders should they continue to rise with the same production.

    And to revisit an old theme, you can not put any stock in the height and weight of players listed on rosters, often it is simply numbers copied on to the roster every year from either the players’ draft year or , in the case of Latin America from when they signed as a 16 year old. A better indication of their true height and weight might be found in game day programs for the teams they performed for in the summer.

    Savery has potential utility and is far more likely to be selected in the Rule 5 draft than any of those other mentioned available players from the Philly standpoint.

  94. I rate Hernandez higher because of his plate discipline. Garcia drew 27 walks in 462 plate appearances this year and struck out 94 times. He had similar numbers last year. Hernandez walked 26 times and struck out 27 times. That’s why I’m more confident in Hernandez maintaining his production in the future.

    As for slugging percentage, Hernandez’s ISO was .067 last season. That’s low, and I don’t think that’s an unreasonable assessment of his power.

    As for Savery, I doubt a team will select a first baseman with so little experience and attempt to carry him on their MLB roster. Adam Loewen draws little interest, and I think Savery is of a similar profile.

  95. I actually expect that Savery will get selected by someone just so they can see what he is. I doubt that he will be kept but he’s a first round pick and teams usually like to take a look at those types. Dom Brown will be a good major league player for a long time. However, he’ll start next season at LHV. The Phils want him to work on a few things and he will and he’ll be back. Yes, he lost playing time and at bats by staying in Philly the last few months of the year but he also learned alot by being with the team through a playoff run. He’s likely to still be in the top 5 minor league prospects if not #1 so let’s just be patient with him. Galvis doesn’t impress me at all yet but he’s still young. Garcia had a great year and right now looks like a bona fide major league 2B prospect (although not in Philly) which is pretty darn good for trade value. Cesar is much younger but had a great year last year so we’ll all watch to see how he hits in Lakewood, a much tougher level. Personally, I’m hoping the Phils can find a worthy SS prospect to draft in the 1st round this year since a few of the draft geeks said this will be a good draft for that. Having the Tigers sign Werth would really help because their pick could be high enough to get one.

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