June 24th Open Discussion

Daily Discussion

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GCL Phillies lose 5-1.
Williamsport loses 9-4.
Clearwater loses 10-5.
Reading wins 8-3.
Lehigh Valley loses 5-4.

Note: I feel like Matt Rizzotti is working himself into a Top 25 prospect. Does that make those of you who said I “don’t respect him” feel a bit better?

57 thoughts on “June 24th Open Discussion”

  1. Well, I’m not one of those, but I think by year end, with a 1.1 ops, he is a top 10-12 for me. Though of course I understand the debate over his defensive skill… And his power isn’t quite as strong as I’d expect from someone his size @ first base when you add in his results in high A this year….we shall see… I’m Thinking positive, but the kid would need a major league OPS over 900 to be quality given the position problems, and not for the phillies…good trade bait.

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  2. Hitting .350 with significant pop at AA has a way of increasing a guy’s status. I was impressed with him when I saw him on Sunday – hitting an opposite field homer is a good way to impress me.

    Personally, his value probably will be as a trading chip for deadline deal, but I’d say at this point he could net a quality bullpen arm, reserve outfielder, etc.

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  3. I think he might be more valuable than people think, simply because he will be cheap salary wise (big bonus these days) and has the potential to start as a DH in the AL. What about trading him for another team’s top 15-30 prospect, maybe a single A guy?

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  4. Gose 3-5 with a HR. Also his 20th CS. Average now up to .274.

    His caught stealing total is surprising (It’s also the thing about his game I worry least about), but I am big-time excited to see him progressing like this. I really expected more struggle at the plate (i.e. under .250) at his young age.

    #3 prospect in the system!

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  5. Matt Hutchison went 3 innings giving up 2 Hs and 0 R he had no Ks but what impressed me about this 1 outing was 8 ground balls to 1 flyout.

    Second Baseman Matt Payton has 6 Ks in 11 ABs. No judgement, just the stats.

    Jeremy has been calling the Reading 2 – 5 hitters “the new Murderer’s Row”. I’ve got to agree with him. They’ve been very effective lately.

    How many games in a row has Harold Garcia hit in? I’ve lost count.

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  6. So assuming this is pretty much a lost year for Gillies this year. He and Gose both is AA next year. Who gets center field? Gillies in center and Gose in right since he has a cannon?

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  7. Regarding Rizzotti, we’ve reached that inflection point where people who like to be early on a prospect are shouting his praises and those who lean on sample size are still reserving judgment. It’s at these times that the scouting reports are the tie-breaker for me. Let’s bombard Baseball America, Keith Law, KG, etc. with questions until we get a few answers from a scout’s perspective. Having multiple current assessments (as opposed to using those from years past) can give us a sense of where he should stand.

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  8. Galvis is really turning it up. If he keeps improving at the plate he could become a solid mlb player. Plus I hate when Lakewood doesnt play. Need a Singleton fix

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  9. Next year’s R-Phils, I say either of those guys could play any of the OF positons, so let them figure it out come next Spring Training, barring any injuries , trades, etc.

    Williamsport- notice at the bottom of their webpage that Domingo Santana is the leader across all 5 of their listed categories with his picture up there.

    Carlos Alonso looks like starting to hit a bit and may be starting to move into a regular spot in the line-up. Lanning seems to be hitting now, interesting what the expected arrival of Cameron Rupp brings.

    Lakewood – Brian Gump not hitting much as DH as of yet following the Clearwater demotion. Thought they might consider moving up Chris Duffy from GCL for that , but he’s the only regular player there , not to be over a .100 Batting Average.

    GCL- Maikel Franco 1-4 with a triple, and another game without a StrikeOut. Not usual for barely 17 players Philly has signed of late. Draftee Chachee Numata , I now see is 12 days older than Franco, started first game as a Catcher- got a couple of at bats, another from the same birth year, Luis Beltre, another Dominican, got the first HR of theis GCL season, and has played regular. Might be able to develop some good guys from GCL.

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  10. Beat me to the punch Florida T, kid is definitely holding his own at the plate hopefully he keeps getting better

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  11. On Rizzotti: I would have a wait and see on him personally. He’s 24 in AA. He could just be off to a hot start. He feels like a mirage personally. I hope I’m wrong.

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  12. Gose has been on fire in June. Really good to see him turning it around in a big way. Gillies, in all likelihood, will repeat Reading so it’ll be interesting to see what they decide to do with both players at the same level.

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  13. NEPP:

    I think him doing it at two levels eliminates the mirage feel for me. I can’t put him anywhere near my top 10 just because his bat needs to stay crazy hot for him to be any kind of successful, but at 18-22 until he’s called up, he’s a valuable bench option in the bigs.

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  14. Rizzotti … not sure he’s “doing it at two levels”

    2007 – OBP – .355 – Slugging – .386
    2008 – OBP – .389 – Slugging – .442
    2009 – OBP – .351 – Slugging – .454
    CLW 2010 – OBP – .426 – Slugging – .477
    REA 2010 – OBP – .411 – Slugging – .688

    He had 3 pretty mediocre years, he hit well at Clearwater, with little power. What he’s doing at Reading is quite impressive, but it is only 128 ABs. What is real here? The sample of 3 years or the sample of 128 ABs. If I’m another team, I put very little value in his AA figures as they MAY be an anomaly. I can’t give up anything of value for someone with his stat lines. Someone said on another thread to package him with Mayberry for a 3-4 starter. Another on this thread said he may bring a quality reliever. I don’t think either is possible. I’ll use Chad Durbin, who I think is a quality reliever. If I’m a big league club, NO WAY I trade Chard Durbin for Matt Rizzotti … absolutely no way.

    Again, what he’s doing right now is impressive, but we have no way of knowing if this is real or not. I know that some people develop later, but at 24 with only 128 ABs of top shelf production, I believe he has little to no trade value. I also don’t see him being prepped for an off the bench hitter on a championshiop hopeful team. Just not enough history to think that is possible for me.

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  15. i don’t see the excitement for galvis’s recent hitting. his last 10 games he is hitting .282 with the exact same ob%. that does not project well by bumping up 2 levels. i think the rule of thumb that i heard is take 50 basis points off of a batting average when projecting the jump from AA to MLB. maybe that is off, but still, i don’t think that he is any where close to showing an ability to hit good pitching. love that glove though.

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  16. Said last night on the radio that Sal Rende had Galvis drop his hands at the plate and since then he has taken off at the bat at least from the left side. Believe Hyatt would be a better in setting up or closing. Seems to get hit the more often the lineup turns over.

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  17. Galvis is 20 years old and playing at double A…if he were playing at age appropriate Lakewood or Clearwater I would worry about such a low average…we do not need a replacement for J-Roll for another 3 or 4 years, Galvis will only be 23 or 24 and hopefully seasoned enough to be ready to contribute at that point, if not sooner

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  18. What are the Phils going to do, field an all left handed-hitting lineup in a few years? I just noticed the draftee Hinson from Clemson is a lefty-hitting third baseman.

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  19. Tom,

    I’m firmly planted in the skeptic crowd in regards to Rizzotti’s long term prospect value but I don’t think you can use trends over years for minor leaguers since the purpose for them being in the minors is to grow/improve on their skills.

    I’m certain there are many successful major leaguers who muddled along for a couple of years before finally flipping the switch. Ryan Howard slugged in the .450 – .500 range for 3 years before making the power jump at the age of 24 in AA Reading.

    As stated previously, I’m not a believer that Rizzotti is a major prospect with the power potential close to Ryan Howard but its also quite possible that he’s figured something out that moves him back onto the radarscreen as a valuable member of the organization.

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  20. Agree with Tom on tempering expectations with Rizzotti. Enjoy it. Hope it lasts. Hope it’s real. But wait to see.

    Based on how hot he is and the reports that he is a very disciplined hitter, a Sept cameo, getting 10-15 ABs as an early game LH PH, might pay off.

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  21. I hear ya 3up, but I don’t think howard is the comp. He showed significan power in both LoA (19 HR) and HiA (23) and then took the dramatic path upward, but even he was doubted and he had a better track record and his AA year was a full year.

    All I’m saying is that I think he is being overvalued by people who think he will be a big tradiing chip or that maybe he will help off the bench this year. That’s all I’m saying. I also don’t believe he will have a major impact down the road, but I’m just saying to be realistic in his ACTUAL value to the organization at this point in time.

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  22. re: ppfan, if we took 50 basis points off of Galvis’ average, I’m pretty sure he would go from .282 to .277.

    Maybe the rule of thumb is 500 bps.

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  23. ****All I’m saying is that I think he is being overvalued by people who think he will be a big tradiing chip or that maybe he will help off the bench this year. ****

    This.

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  24. 50 points off average? wow? so to be a three hundred hitter you must hit 350 in minors never knew that, I think galvis for his age and before this season lack of hitting, to move up and hit close to 300 to me is real good, especially with that glove . but only my opinion.

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  25. Unless he becomes an offensive force or somehow the second coming of Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel (a good offensive player in his own right), Galvis just doesn’t get me that excited. I hate to say it, but slick fielding infielders who don’t hit that much are easy to find and don’t get paid that much and we need only look as far as our own team to see that (Castro and Valdez).

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  26. I wish either of Valdez or Castro could still field as well as Galvis does right now.

    I am also not that excited about Galvis. He’s got a few more years to work on it so there’s plenty of time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays another full year in Reading next year and maybe even the year after to keep working on his hitting.

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  28. Having watched Rizz almost every home game at Reading since he came up, I will say this. At first he came up and hit a couple homerruns to the pool area in right field most times just clearing the wall. Anyone familar with First Energy Stadium knows this is the easiest place to hit it out. So you’re thinking “ok some lucky shots”, then he started coming through in the clutch, the walk off shot etc… You see he’s a nice guy so you’re kinda pulling for him, you see the high average you think it may be kind of flukey. Then the homeruns started going towards Center and before long he starts shoing the opposite field power going to the deck in left. All doubts for me on his power were squashed last Saturday when Rizzotti broke Ryan Howards distance record on HR. Howard had hit the center line on Route 61 past right field. Rizz hit the curb on the opposite side of the street.

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  29. As Ive said before Matt Rizzotti could be valuable to an AL team. I wouldn’t be to upset if he was the prospect given up in a deal for a reliever or back of the rotation arm.

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  30. Bob_m … why would an any team give up something of significance for a guy who just started blooming at the age of 24? how can anyone be considered valuable based on 128 ABs?

    When Ryan Howard was in the minors, he had monster power figures and a decent track record. In his ultimate wisdom, Ed Wade offered Ryan Howard to Pittsburgh for the very ordinary Kip Wells, the definition of a pedestrian pitcher. PITTSBURGH SAID NO. Howard was lightyears ahead of where Rizzotti is now and he couldn’t bring us KIP WELLS. Rizzotti will NOT bring us anything in trade.

    If you’re going to say he is, PLEASE explain how Rizzotti would bring what Ryan Howard could not.

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  31. A note about Brown last night- he had a complete bonehead deer in head lights look on a fly ball early in the game, ball was hit to right center and Brown didn’t move I don’t know if he just didn’t see the ball or what, but Berry is pretty fast and running full speed even he couldn’t get to it in time and this wasn’t one of those low tradjectory high velocity jobs that I’ve seen Brown struggle with, this was just a run of the mill fly ball. He just didn’t move til it was well late. This came on the heals of his collision with Berry the nigh before, where he didn’t heed Berry’s right away or listen to him calling Brown off.

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  32. Wow, maybe the Phils should dump Brown since he is struggling in the field some. Give me a fricking break. The guy can rake. Manny couldn’t field a lick for his entire career and is going to the HOF. Brown’s fielding woes are a complete non-issue when it comes to his future.

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  33. Tom – You mention Howard having “monster” minor HR numbers, He actually had 6 at Batavia, 19 at Lakewood, 23 at Clearwater, then the one “monster” year at Reading (37), with 9 st SWB, and 2 with the big club.
    It weird how Rizz follows the normal progression through the system, steadily improves, but people look at being 24 and say he’s not a legit prospect. I think we should let the numbers speak for themselves. He continues to hit, that’s all I know.

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  34. In regards to Brown’s fielding I’m just frustrated as I had thought just a week or so ago that he had a lot of these issues wrapped up, me and a freind had always talked about if he should be moved up to help give the Phillies a spark and his fielding had improved to the point where I was finally on the fence with it. Seeing two bone head plays on two night in a row is dissapointing since I’ve seen what he’s capaeble of defensivley as well, with some awesome plays last week.

    Speaking of disspointing, what is up with Overbeck? I didn’t do much research on him, but he’s batting like .120 something, he has more errors than hits since coming to Reading (4-3), he just looks so uncomfortable at the plate. Although he’s starting to look better in the field the past couple of games.

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  35. I lied about Overbeck he is batting .160 ( he must have gotten a hit last night and I didn’t see) and its 4 hits to 3 errors, looking on teh wen I see he was credited with double last night, but I could have swore it was scored an error last night at the game

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  36. Don’t think the comments on Brown were meant to indicate that he somehow isn’t a terrific prospect but instead are an indication that he’s in the minors because he still has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball.

    For all the talk about the need to replace Ibanez with Brown as soon as possible, I notice that both Ibanez/Victorino have the same BA with Ibanez having a slightly better OBP.

    Maybe the question should be if Brown can play CF?

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  37. Snake … meant the monster for his “breakout” year. Sorry I didn’t clarify. the power at the lower levels is still significant (not monster) and well above what Rizotti did.

    He does keep hitting and I hope it continues. Just saying he hasn’t done enough to get us a starter or quality reliever.

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  38. Matt Rizzoti will not bring anything back in a trade. Stop pretending like he’s valuable “trade bait”; he’s not.

    At this point, his biggest value to the Phillies would be to keep raking and eventually turn into a Dobbs-like bench piece. Be happy with that if it happens, it’s a valuable thing that most prospects don’t even turn into.

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  39. I’d say Brown is in the minor leagues because they don’t have room in the majors for him. Actually that isn’t really the case because he wasn’t really ready for the majors until this month or so. I’m not saying that fielding isn’t an issue, but lets not make it more important than it is. The past two left fielders for the Phils couldn’t play defense.

    If Brown can rake, then he can play. If Galvis hits around .250 in the majors, he is just a 2nd tier SS, even with that glove.

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  40. I think Brown needs some AAA time before you can say he’s flat out ready for the Majors. The last thing you want to do is bring him up and have him struggle, kind’ve what Maybin went through.

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  41. RULZ,

    What you aren’t getting is that the minor leagues are about DEVELOPING players. Brown clearly has the athletic skills to be a good defender. Most poor defenders (there are exceptions) are poor defenders in large measure because of athletic limitations. The Phillies are clearly hopeful that he can improve his fielding with more time in the minors – a reasonable hope given the gap betwen his athletic ability and his current defensive performance.

    As a hitter, the issue is more complicated. Most likely he could be a decent hitter right now in the majors (though many people here seem to have this odd idea that minor league stats are directly comperable to major league stats; there is no way he would (this year, at least) come anywhere near his current AA numbers in the majors. But even players of his potential can benefit (as hitters) with more develoment time in the minors. The Phillies are, quite rightly, looking to maximize his long term value to the team.

    He hasn’t, in the greater scheme of things, had a particularly slow development path. At some point this year he’ll likely get called up to AAA. Assuming he performs well there, if he isn’t with the team NEXT year, then it’s safe to say that the reason will be “because they don’t have room in the majors for him.”

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  42. I’m not excited about Galvis – I’m cautiously optimistic. He won’t need to hit too much to be a positive contributer to an MLB club and he has at least two more MiL years to work on it.

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  43. I get that the minors are about development. Just saying that Brown’s defense isn’t why he isn’t in the majors. The coaches may harp on his defense every single day, but it isn’t going to delay his arrival one day if he continues to hit.

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  44. They were saying last night only 3 errors in 70 games so far for Freddy and the one error at Bowie was iffy. The big Phils have 6 errors so far this season at the SS position. Nice to have a SS at AA who just turned 20 last Nov. hitting over .360 with runners in scoring position who in the last six games has tripled to the gap, one hop off the wall in right center, and hit two bombs to right.

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  45. I don’t think that Brown is ready for the majors, defense is a major important factor. Good defense wins and bad defense loses games. Brown does not have good defensive skills. Phillies have hitters, they need good defense. Hitting changes but not good defense which Brown does not have. Berry is a much better fielder and he is faster. That fly ball to rt center was one of many bad fielding choices for Brown.

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  46. I wouldn’t go so far to say that Dom Brown is a bad fielder, he has great speed, NOT Berry Speed, but Berry is just a flat out burner. I’ve also seen Brown make some great plays with his glove, during his collision game he had a great play with his glove late, backing up, glove behind head, rolling backwards and holding on. He just seems to make decisions early when a ball is hit, I actually wonder if that “great” catch that night should have been much easier (i.e. he didn’t start backing up until too late) I think he has the tools to be great on defense, the problem is in his head, awareness of whats going on and making the right decisions and making that jump in the right direction quick enough, deciding angles etc…. this where Berry and Gillies are on another level of being better. In fact I would even rate Brown below Spidale for this aspect of the game. But this is something that could (should?) resolve itself with expereince, hence why he’s in AA.

    And for the record it is his poor fielding decisions that will keep him in the minors longer. There aren’t many doubts about his batting anymore, so it most certianly is his feilding.

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  48. Why not start putting a package together to get Cliff Lee back with Rizzotti and some others…Seattle needs bats

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  49. That Dude … I’m going to assume that was sarcasm. Seattle does need bats, but would YOU give up an big asset for someone with 128 ABs in AA and who had a 3 year track record of average performance.

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  51. Vance Worley is getting ripped top 1st 1 out 5 hits, 3 runs given up, liners for doubles and singles have been the hit type. As I’m done typing this out 2 loud liner type

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  52. Well I’ve now seen the ugly side of Rizzotti on the field. An error followed by another bobble but at least he got the out on the second one. Through 2 1/2 Worley has given up 8 hits 5 runs.

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  54. So much for Murderer’s Row, Reading is flat as a pancake thru 7 1/2, no runs only 5 hits. Mahar replaced Bozied at DH a few innings back. Losing 6-0 off of 12 hits to Bowie. They must have been out drinking with Mr Belding after his Karakoe party last nite.

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  55. Just read on Philly.com that Brown is being moved up to Lehigh. Sorry that I can’t provide a link. I guess the Philly timeclock starts now.

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