June 16 Discussion

Daily Discussion

Last night’s games

Lakewood wins 2-1.
Clearwater wins 8-4.
Reading wins 7-2.
Lehigh Valley loses 7-3.

117 thoughts on “June 16 Discussion”

  1. Brian Gump said on facebook he has been sent to Lakewood. He seemed real excited about it cause he said he will have an opportunity to play alot more. He should only strengthen an already strong team.
    Everyone should check out his blog, it has some great insight on the life of a minor league baseball player.
    http://briangump.blogspot.com/

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  3. I am surprised if Gump is sent to Lakewood. I kind of though they would place Gauntlett Eldemire there. (in case don’t know Phillies announced new signings for Short Season). I see about 12 current candidates for the Wiliamsport OF, so something has to give there. Maybe they can slide a couple of OF’s to 1B to complete with the new signings of Cusick and Murray. It will be interesting when the Short Season Rosters are published in a couple of days. And I don’t know that Gump should play all that much in Lakewood, except for DH’ing, anyhow.

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  4. Gump is just a guy I have been rooting for since he came in the Phillies system cause I enjoy reading his blog. No effence to Schwimmer but Gump’s blog is better

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  5. Singleton is the man. Off cuff top 5 prospects based on results so far and potential.
    1. Brown
    2. Cosart
    3. Singleton
    4. Gose
    5. Colvin

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  6. Another HR for D. Brown. He is steadily having a fantastic year at Reading. Brown seems to have slightly been overshadowed around here by Singleton lately, but Brown is really reinforcing his status as the top prosect in this system, having his best year yet as a minor league player.

    Also was nice to see Gillies name in the box score.

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  9. Agree on Colvin. If May straightens himself out, we will have three top shelf pitching prospects. Would think May, Colvin and Cosart would project as number 1 or 2 starters in the best case scenario.

    When was the last time we had that much high level starting pitching at one time?

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  10. Yeah, great stuff from Colvin. He’s been at almost 9 K/9 this season with few walks and HRs. Take out two horrendous outings of 1+ innings each, and his numbers are fantastic.

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  11. Freddy Galvis has been raking lately. By Freddy Galvis standards at least. Hitting .324 with a .390 OBP the last 10 games, though he has only 1 extra base hit, a double. But his average is up to .242, when it was much lower a couple weeks ago. Any way you look at it, the signs are encouraging and he’s still young for being at AA.

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  12. Gump is indeed likely to be glad to be demoted if it results in more AB’s and playing time because that is what is needed to advance in the system with the goal of MLB. He was not likely to get it at Clearwater by getting ahead of Gose , D. Mitchell, D. Myers, and Susdorf, and the likely arrival of some upgrades in the Infield. That is what the goal is. Or would it be thought he is more worried about a couple of nickles and dimes in the difference in pay?

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  14. Bad news about Gump being demoted means that Collier is probably not ready. This will probably be a loss year for him and he is a kid that just needs lots of at bats.

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  15. One other note on Galvis – he has made 2 errors this year. That is an absurdly low number for a minor leaguer (playing on uneven fields, etc.) He supposedly also has fantastic range. He might be the type of player who could be a major league starter with an OPS in the 650-700 range. He has always been pushed a little too aggressively IMO at the expense of his offense. Hopefully he can stay at Reading a while (at least through the middle of next year) to really let him settle in and learn to hit at that level. He is probably needs to be on the big club in 2012 in some capacity (probably the Castro role today), so he has time to improve his offense.

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  16. I think the difference in pay between lower minor league levels (assuming you are not a bonus baby) is the difference between insultingly low and ridiculously low. At AAA level, some players get more because they serve a vital function as permanent back-ups to the major leaguers (see Wilson Valdez).

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  20. H. Garcia should get the call to Reading. Ozzie Smith Chavez has had his chance there. Harold was back at second last night with Kennelly at third. Stole a base, drove in three runs and now has hits in 19 straight games. What more does he have to prove in Clearwater? Maybe they will move him up when Fidel Hernandez suspension is up.

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  21. I think that I would rank Colvin ahead of Gose at this point. He’s been absolutely nasty as of late…. has he gotten any love from any of the hotsheets?

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  23. I’d probably put Ramirez in the top 5. For me Hernandez has to perform past Lakewood for me to consider him top 5 when considering his age. Hyatt’s FIP is 2.35 and has a 11.1 K/9 and for that I keep him 4th/5th.

    1. Cosart
    2. May
    3. Colvin
    4. Hyatt
    5. Ramirez
    6. Hernandez

    Since we are doing this, what do people think of Stephen Inch? He could be our next high ceiling guy who could potentially compete with Colvin/Cosart.

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  25. i was think ramirez 5…especially after his last start…ashame hernandez got hurt…i even toyed with the idea of Way

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  26. here are 10 guys i would put equal to or better than (potentially, and including age and upside) Hyat: not in order –
    shreve
    cosart
    may
    aumont
    colvin
    ramirez
    pettibone
    biddle
    hernandez
    sanchez
    No offense to hyat but he is what he is and his upside is a 5. after a nice 1st month and a half he has been very human.

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  28. The drop off after the first 4 or 5 guys is pretty significant, but who cares, I’d rather have 3 or 4 gems, 10 okay guys and filler than 20 okay guys and 1 gem. Top of the rotation starters are worth their weight in gold and we’ve got a few good candidates.

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  29. marky mark thats what makes this fun…give me 1-5 based on performance and potential mix…i cant go biddle or shreve yet…not enough and im biddles mailman…guys like aumont not performing so i cant put him there right now…this list expires june 17…lol

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  30. Isn’t it a bit premature to call these guys potential top of the rotation starters? Elizardo Ramirez had stellar numbers against A-ball hitters too.

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  31. Don’t see any way we can say what Stephen Inch is, let alone put mention him as we do Cosart/Colvin. I don’t recall the write-ups on him showing him with the big, power stuff a RHP needs to be top shelf, but I may be wrong.

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  32. We have a couple solid reliever prospects too…dont dismiss the value of having guys like Mathieson, Stutes, and Schwimer, etc in the system…particularly if it prevents us from giving a guy similar to Baez a multi-year deal next season. That type of money adds up for a team pushing its max payroll.

    Speaking of which, why haven’t they ever converted Worley to the bullpen…there was lots of talk of that happening back when he was drafted and they never followed through. Wouldn’t his stuff play much better out of the pen?

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  33. all im saying is if you were a baseball scout exec and were asked to give tthe phillies top 5 minor league pitchers as of june 16 th who would they be….go!

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  36. NEPP – Worley doesn’t throw hard, so he’s not the prototypical bullpen arm. I guess if you had to make a comparison, in the bullpen, at best he’d be a Chad Durbin type guy and at worst, Clay Condrey.

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  37. I really like Way and Shreve, especially Shreve. And I understand why people shy away from Hyatt due to his age. With that, the strikeout numbers are still so impressive. You can’t strike out 11+ batters per 9 just on experience alone. It’s tough to say because I’ve never actually seen him play but there’s got to be something about his delivery or pitch movement that is making him so hard to hit.

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  38. G$ – the difference between Elizardo Ramirez and these guys is that these guys have much bigger arms and a clearly higher upside. People on this site are not fooled by Elizardo Ramirez type performances – Flande had a similar performance and the response was duly muted because his arm is only okay.

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  39. Sam top anything lists are fun because others see prospects completely different than you or I do and it forces you to look more closely to see what they are seeing.
    Johnny2x: I really like shreve as well and I tink he might have been my next guy. As fo May although his peripherals are better than his numbers reflect his age and lack of dominaring stuff according to scouts make me think that he will really struggle the way he did in april with blueclaws only the wole year as he hits reading. Hope i’m wrong, i was cautiously high on him after last year and thought they would jump him to clearwater. When I saw he would be in lakewood i thought this guy is going to flat out dominate these young hitters but he didn’t. So all that to say I haven’t given up on way who is pitching well lately just don’t know how much upside is there.

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  40. Oh aso J2x: on Hyatt, he does have some aesome peripherals but I would hold out more hope if he put up those numbers the last month and a half insted of the first. then i would be inclined to think he made adjustments instead of the hitters making adjustments against him.

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  41. Markymark I think you are mixing up May and Way. May does have very dominating stuff- as displayed by his 78 k’s in 50 some innings at Clearwater. And he is age-appropriate. He just has control issues.

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  42. Catch I was thinking the exact same thing regarding the lizard man and flande was almost the perfect comp for him. I think we need to not ony look at the numbers, and age relevant to those numbers but what kind of stuff they have and what scouts say about their projections as they have trained eyes for things the average fan wouldn’t notice.

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  44. Thanks skunky, i can’t believe I did that. May is a very dominating young stud with ace/#2 potential, while Way could max out as a 5 if all falls well for him.

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  46. “The Phils just really like to draft people with similar names.”

    Tell me about it – Cosart, Colby, Colvin and a boat load of Codys – it gets confusing and that’s not even getting into the whole J.C. Ramirez, J.C. Romero thing.

    Poor Phillippe Aumont – no mistaking him for anyone else.

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  48. Skunky, May is young for A+. He’s the second youngest person on the Threshers roster. His performance at this level is extremely encouraging. He just needs to harness his command before hitting AA.

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  49. Yea I double checked his age after I posted and it made me smile. I just figured it was safe to assume he was AT LEAST age appropriate for clearwater.

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  50. I don’t hate Bill Conlin like many do, but the reference to Phillippe as “Pierre” was, I believe, a very inappropriate derogatory reference to him as a French Canadian. Kind of like referring to a generic Jewish person as “Hymie” or a generic black person as “Leroy” – it was offensive.

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  51. I thought it was just a mistake. I think the sentence was something like the first names of the three guys we got for Cliff Lee are Pierre, Tyson and Juan Carlos.

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  52. “The party line is that the stunning Lee trade to Seattle for three lower-echelon minor leaguers named Pierre, Tyson and Juan Carlos – two Canadians and a Nicaraguan – was necessary to rebuild the suddenly punchless and pitchless farm system.”

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  53. Cosart, Colvin, May and Biddle are the start of a very nice looking rotation. The future bullpen looks good too.
    Now if we could only get an infield.

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  54. Biddle has to perform as a professional before he can be lumped together with the other guys you named. Dominating the Friends School league doesn’t really mean anything to me.

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  56. Actually, when I read Conlin’s sentence again (thanks for copying it in your response), I become MORE convinced that it is a derogatory reference. I say this because who the hell cares whether these guys are French Canadian or Nicarguan. What the hell does that have to do with whether they are good ballplayers or not. It’s clearly a derogatory reference. Do you really think that Bill Conlin does not know Phillippe Aumont’s name? Of course he knows his name – he follows the minor league box scores every bit as carefully as we do – I am 98% sure the reference to “Pierre” was intentional.

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  58. Yeah. Let’s slow down on including Biddle in any list of future potential starters until he has at least the track record of the current guys we discuss.

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  60. For those interested in the life of a minor leaguer. There was a terrific independent film called Sugar that came out in 2009. Its a story of a Dominican player who came from one of the factories straight to the middle of nowhere A ball.

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  61. I am not putting Biddle on my top 5 list but it’s unfair to disregard him. He beat up on some prep kids in the Northeast but that’s not any less impressive than crushing the ball like Bryce Harper did at some local community college in Nevada. Of course you’d be stupid not to put Harper #1 overall within the Nats organization. All I am trying to say is that I don’t think you can keep Biddle out of the conversation just because he hasn’t played in the minors.

    A 6’6″ lefty who throws 92 mph at 17 years old with a potentially plus change and struck out 160 in 59 innings. I wouldn’t throw it out the window that this guy could be in the top 5.

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  62. I know Aumont has been awful this year, but he still may be our 2nd best pitching prospect. Cosart is head and shoulders number one. Beyond that, however, Aumont when healthy had the best stuff. He only threw 100 IP prior to this year and he changed his mechanics. We need to look beyond the stats to really evaluate him. Maybe he ends up a reliever again, but there is no question he has a high end arm.

    I’d probably rank them:

    1. Cosart
    2. Aumont/May (still pretty wild)
    4. Colvin (small sample size)
    5. Ramirez (look at his K/BB ratio – better than his other stats)

    Everyone else is a notch or two below these. I might be pushing Worley a little higher after his recent performances. Looks like he is at least another Carpenter and maybe a little more.

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  63. Not saying to disregard him, just saying to slow down. Right now, he doesn’t deserve to be in the same conversation as Cosart/Colvin/May. I’m high on his raw ability, but need to see some innings from him before I can even discuss him as a potential future starter.

    He’s definitely someone I will be rooting for and watching very closely.

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  64. Tom,

    I am probably in the same boat in terms of my opinion on Biddle. I would put him in the top 10 though. I’d start considering him at 7th.

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  65. I had Aumont well behind May going into the year and Aumont has fallen a hell of a lot. He’s still got upside, but he’s not in my top 5 pitching prospects for the team anymore. That could change, but he’s not there now.

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  66. I’m also very curious as to how the Williamsport roster will shake out. I’m assuming the initial roster will be released quite soon, since their season opens this weekend…

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  67. andyb

    Please tell me you are kidding. If Awfulmont is our second best pitching prospect ,we are in piles of golden YOUKNOWWHATS.

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  68. Tom – I know you were not disregarding Aumont. I just think we tend to overinflate the latest piece of info we have on somebody. Aumont needs innings, but his stuff is probably better than anyone other than Cosart when healthy. Of course if he can’t break 90 then something is wrong and all bets are off.

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  72. I think Id put Aumont behind even JC Ramirez at this point, based on everything Ive heard on him this season. Im all for waiting and seeing, but what ive heard recently hasnt been encouraging

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  73. I am leaving Biddle out for now because he has not pitched yet. But even if Biddle is lights out this year he is probably only 3rd or 4th until we see him in a full season league. I am pretty excited about him, though I do think that we have been cherry-picking his good velocity days. He is more of a 90 mph guy now with some projection remaining from what I can see. That is what Hamels is, so it certainly is enough if he improves his secondary pitches. Hamels did not have much projection left in him other than staying healthy, so hopefully Biddle fills out and does become a guy that sits in the 93-94 range. There are not a lot of lefties short of Lincecum and Sabathia who can do that these days.

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  74. I’m with Skunky. I come here for good discussion, not to see people called names because they have a different opinion, and nowheels constantly does the latter without providing much of the former.

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  76. From what I see of Biddle I kind of think Jeff Francis… whether that is a good comp at all I don’t know. I just wish the reports on his secondary offerings were more consistent.

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  79. When I mentioned Biddle, I was just thinking in terms of a lefty with high upside. Cleary Jesse isn’t on their level yet, but he’s close to their age and was a higher pick. He’s touched 96 in his recent starts, and thats really impressive for a 6’6″ lefty prep pitcher from the northeast. I know other people(Keith Law?) have said this, but Biddle would’ve been drafted earlier if he lived in California, Texas or Florida.

    I have a question regarding Biddle’s projectability. We always hear about tall, “projectible” young pitchers like Scott Frazier adding velocity to their fastball once they fill out. Since Biddle is already listed at 235lbs, has he reached his limit? Or do the fact that he’s a very young, a cold-weather pitcher leave room for projection? Pitching in the mid 90s is already extremely impressive, but a little extra velocity would put him in a truly select group.

    also, where do you see the draft picks starting out? is the majority headed for Williamsport? which, if any, college players do you forsee starting at a higher level? I wouldn’t mind seeing what Chris Duffy can do in Lakewood or even Clearwater, because he can obviously handle inferior pitching. I’d also like to see a few relievers fast-tracked, especially lefties.(Morgado?)

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  80. This may have been mentioned already, but 2010 16th rounder Craig Fritsch, RHP and 32nd rounder Carlos Alonso, 3B now showing on Williamsport’s roster. Even though the official Phillies signing list isn’t showing them signed yet.

    Other 2010 draftees on Williamsport roster at their website…

    Perci Garner
    Gauntlett Eldemire
    Mario Hollands
    Jeffrey Cusick (listed at 3B??)
    James Klocke
    Eric Pettis

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  81. Had to get some outside perspective on Singleton

    Tom (NJ): Is Jonathan Singleton working his way to top 25 overall prospect status?

    Jim Callis: That’s bit hefty for a low Class A first baseman, isn’t it? Would you settle for Top 100?

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  83. Was going to ask about him in the top 50, but decided to be aggressive!! Think it’s more of a dose of reality than buzzkill. Since I’m using my phone here, can’t really look it up, curious where Heyward ranked after his LoA year. Anyone?

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  84. If Singleton had been a first round pick, he’d already be talked about as a top 20-25 prospect. Regardless of national rankings, he has that talent. The numbers he’s putting up in the SAL right now have a large enough SS to no longer be a fluke and would put him a full 200 OPS points above anybody in the SAL in the past 5 seasons. After this little playoff run, he’ll go to Clearwater, and if he can put up a 1.0 or 1.1 OPS there as well, he’ll be in the top 50.

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  85. Was able to check. Heyward was 28 in his LoA year. Granted, more premium position, but I would think a strong finish would make top 50 a possibility

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  86. What I’m seeing is Heyward ranked 28th after his rookie league year and 5th (feb 09) after his LoA year Rome(A) with a late callup to Myrtle Beach (A+). Wow.

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  87. andyb, I’m dying to know who is #3 on your list 😉 I also don’t think you’re giving Colvin credit for the scouting reports on him. He throws mid-90s and supposedly has a good breaking ball. That sounds like top-notch stuff to me.

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  88. The difference is Heyward has a plus arm and D in a higher position on the defensive spectrum while Singleton may be good at 1b, you need to be a complete masher at 1b for you to have value. If Singleton played RF and had an arm like Heyward with the D, he’d be up there in the top 25. Also, being a first round pick helps, no doubt.

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  89. Heyward was ranked 3rd after he graduated from the SAL and posted about an .870 OPS.

    If Singleton drops his OPS by .200 pts he should still be in the top 25 and if he’s not it’s just because he wasn’t a top draft pick.

    I put Singleton through the MLE on minorleaguesplits just for fun and he already comes out to league average. 270ish BA and about .780 OPS.

    I always hated the 1B talk. Albert Pujols is the best player in the world for one reason.

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  90. baxter, most draftees go to W’port or the GCL. It’s pretty unusual for a draftee to go straight to Lakewood, and I don’t think we drafted anyone that highly regarded from Div. 1 this year.

    In other news, there are already 6 OFs listed on the Wport roster, including a 2nd round pick (Dugan), a 3rd round pick (Hudson), a medium bonus / high-upside guy (Santana), and a 6th round pick (Eldemire). Plus I doubt they’re going to want Alvarez, a 20-yr-old from the DR they’ve brought along slowly, to sit more than he plays. Poor Micheal Dabbs. I know these rosters are in flux until the games begin, but this is a conundrum for the W’port coach.

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  91. Johnny 2 Times, don’t disregard Pujols’ defense. He’s one of the best 1B defenders in the league, and also a very good baserunner. Obviously his bat is par excellence, but the other aspects of his game are what make him the best player in the majors.

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  92. So, we’re upset that a guy in Low-A who came out of nowhere is a Top 100 prospect?

    Calm down guys…this is a good thing. Saying he’s Top 100 after 6 weeks in Lakewood is a pretty big compliment.

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  93. If Pujols was Mo Vaughn out there at firstbase everyone would still acknowledge him as the best and justifiably so. Also he only had 1 less error than Howard last year. His defense is not as good as most think.

    You know that Heyward would still have been top 5 last year even if he was Pat Burrell/Carlos Lee out there in the outfield. His AVG/OBP/SLUG is what got him that high ranking.

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  94. Here’s perspective. Jon Singleton is hitting .405 with a 1.195 OPS in 141 plate appearances. How much is that big a sample worth? Chase Utley in his last 139 plate appearances is hitting .235 with an OPS of .675. I’m cautious yet because I’ve seen a ton of weird performances in short samples.

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  95. May has done more than Colvin at this stage, though Colvin’s recent starts are very encouraging. That puts May a little bit ahead of Colvin for me at this point.

    Take all the velocity numbers you see on these guys with a grain of salt. Colvin may touch the mid 90s, but most likely does not sit there. On Biddle the radar readings have been all over the place. Most say he is not in the mid-90s. The scouting report on MLB says this about his velocity: “he’s throwing his fastball up to 92 mph, with room for growth in that area”. Sounds like a guy who sits around 90 these days and occasionally touches 92 or a little higher on a fast gun. That is good for a LHP, but let’s not expect mid-90s.

    On Aumont, something is clearly wrong with him now. But we do know that when healthy he is a legit mid-90s sinker ball pitcher. He won’t miss quite as many bats with a sinkerball, but he might be more effective.

    Main point here is that we should use all the data we have about prospects to evaluate them. That means scouting reports plus all the performance stats from whatever level. A guy like Hyatt is now seen as more of a mid-level prospect rather than a top prospect now that we have seen enough innings to properly evaluate him (and now the scouting reports are making more sense when he is more age-appropriate for his league). We put far too much emphasis on all these guys’ performance in the past month.

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  97. The reason Heyward was ranked higher than Singleton will be ranked IS because he was a first-round pick–and this isn’t a bad thing. Those prospect rankings don’t just take numbers into consideration, nor should they. A guy who puts up sick numbers and is a first-round pick should of course be considered a more legitimate prospect for the future than a guy with sick numbers drafted in the 8th round. Numbers in the low minors at age 18 are rarely reliable predictors–and because prospect rankings are about predictions going forward (not rewards for value provided to their Low-A team), publications have to use more than just numbers. So yes, they use draft position, because that’s an indication of how, especially with 18-year olds in their first year, teams and scouts recently felt about them. It makes total sense.

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  98. In defense of Singleton on this and to add an anti-Callis comment, I’d point out that Lars Anderson was a Low A first basemen in 2007 who put up an .840 OPS over the season and then was ranked #40 in the BA Top 100 next time. I *do* think Callis plays favorites and Lars Anderson was always one of his favorites. I’m willing to see how the season plays out but I could do without BA’s repeated recent admonishments to Phillies fans who are understandably excited about an 18 year old with a freaking 1.200 OPS in 130 PAs.

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  99. From what I have seen Singleton appears to be a very athletic guy and capable of other position. Does any one know why he landed at first and if he can do other things.

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  100. The guy only has about 250 career PA’s, is in low A and plays 1B. Why would anyone take offense to Callis saying Singleton is a Top 100 player rather than Top 25? I have found Callis to be very fair to Phillies’ prospects.

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  104. yeah alan but they already have 6 OFers. And even if they move duffy back to third, they have Alonso, with hinson and Smith on the way maybe

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  105. NY-Penn League teams carry deep rosters. They have the DH, one of those guys could play 1B, etc.

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  110. Brown hits another bomb… and Ibanez’ average sinks below .250.

    Ive had it with Ibanez. Its time for him to goto the bench.

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  111. In regards to Gillies, heard the radio announcer say he was “given” the night off, nothing said of injury or anything like that.

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  112. Schwimmer big time blow save in botom of 8th walked in with a 3 run lead leaves Reading losing by 2, walks, hit pitch, and a bomb

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  114. As much as Aumont has been ripped on here today, need to mention a decent performance. 3 IP 1 hit, 1 K and 2 BB

    Walks still no good, but at least it’s something he can take as a positive.

    And on another note, in all the discussion on starting pitching, don’t think one person mentioned Jesus Sanchez. Another solid outing tonight, 5 IP, 1 hit 3 BB and 3 K … ERA now at 3.12. Where does he fit in the line of starting pitchers. I’d say top ten, and maybe even in the 5-7 range.

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  115. Hey Marfis, I actually know Gauntlett personally, I’m very close with him and his older sister. We exchanged texts yesterday, basically he had some wrist problems early in the year at OU, and the Phillies want him to have surgery and start up in Fall instructional league. He is real bummed about it because he just wants to play, but I told him that its in is best interest to get it done, so it doesn’t bother him the rest of his career.

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  116. Hmm- They got him on the Williamsport roster, did not see anytihing on that or on the preview article they wrote. Maybe he went to that Meet the Cutters thing. Have to see how that develops.

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  117. Yeah he went to Philly Monday to take his physical and all that stuff and I guess their doctors want him to do have the surgery.

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