June 11th Open Discussion

Box Score Recap

Last night’s scores

Lakewood wins 8-2.
Clearwater loses 10-3.
Reading lost 9-7.
Lehigh Valley lost 4-3 and lost 2-1.

140 thoughts on “June 11th Open Discussion”

  2. It’s obvoius that Aumont’s mechanics are really messed up right now. Hopefully, some time in Clearwater will get him straightened out.

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  3. A few notes –

    As noted by other posters in the past couple of games, Zagurski looks to be in a serious grove. It’s good to know we have a few good arms in the minors ready to come up should the Phils bullpen falter.

    Not much to say about Savery that hasn’t already been said.

    Has the league figured out Flande now that he’s been around a few times? It sure looks that way to me.

    Another nice outing for Schwimmer. Maybe it’s time to just release one of the AAAA guys at LHV and see what he can do there. Outside of a few rough outings, he’s been great.

    Very curious to see Aumont coming out of the pen in Clearwater. I think this was his first appearance at Clearwater, and maybe they just wanted to give him some work. Or do people think it’s a sign that he may be converted to a reliever?

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  4. Anthony Gose is putting up a really nice showing this season. He had a rough April, which is bringing down his overall numbers, but look at his May and June and you see a 19 year old speedster in A+ having a very nice season. He deserves to be in that #2 prospect discussion with Cosart and Singleton. He may strike out a bit too much, but he has true elite speed, an elite arm, plays a premium position, and if his BB rate stays where it is, we’re talking about a guy who can lead off. He needs to cut down on Ks and CS, but he’s looking pretty legit right now.

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  5. Lakewood- I see Jeremy Barnes placed on the DL . I see no mention of the injury on BlueClaws MiLB page or on the BlueClaws Blog. Must either be a minor injury or a disinterested team info man or Blogger. Barnes was replaced by Matthew McConell , one of last year’s vaunted College Draftees. McConnell promoted over Cesar Hernandez, may mean something, or it is short term. Barnes injury might throw a monkey wrench into some short term plans after the Draftees report.

    I see Harold Garcia played 3B at Clearwater while Overbeck DH’ed. Maybe he moves there before a switch of teams for Overbeck after Draftees fill some lower slots.

    I see after Flande was bombed , I see he was relieved by Jason Anderson, who had been filling in as 5th starter. Maybe they promote another starter or two from Clearwater, shortly.

    Lakewood again- Valle has 6 HR’s in last 12 games, and now leads team with 7. One more than Castro, Hewitt and Singleton. Singleton has fewer AB’s , though. The younger players seem to have been hitting the last couple of weeks or so, Hewitt was at .220 for a time and now is up to .223 which is a good jump with as many AB’s . So maybe this is looking up for a time, I think Hewitt and James will maintain their positions at Lakewood till the end of the season, and continue to progress, even if they add the 2 College OF Draftees. I believe the Lakewood lineup might be moving into another productive spell , like in the beginning of the Season. Status of the injury to Barnes may be a key, and may have organizational effects.

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  7. Gose looks like the winner out of the 2008 Toolsy Top Pick Sweepstakes (Hewitt, Collier & Gose). If he develops into a legit MLB CF and we never hear from the other two again, I’ll be completely happy with that draft selection. He’s very young for his league, his more than just surviving and he has great secondary skills. I like it. I’m not really worried about the CS rate quite yet…its more of him learning to read pitchers than any other type of issue. That’s something that can be taught.

    So, is Zach Collier still in XST? Will he go to Williamsport again in a week?

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  8. I think the Flandewagon has a flat.

    It must have been a work issue for Aumont. I can’t see them moving him to the bullpen already. That’d be a pretty big concession on the team’s part on his ability.

    Where was Mayberry in the two LHV games. Did I miss something?

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  9. Marfis-
    Barnes was placed on thee DL with a left knee injury which he hurt sliding…and as far as the BlueClaws media relations guy, he is one of the best there is.

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  10. Rodeo–
    You did miss something. Mayberry has been out all week, after injuring his leg trying to make a catch…Should be back in the lineup this weekend. He took BP yesterday

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  11. Must have missed that Mayberry injured himself sliding into a wall attempting a catch. Last I seen on Collier he was scheduled to be ready about 2 weeks into the Short Season Schedule.

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  13. Don’t agree at all that Gose should be in the discussion as the #2 prospect in the system. Cosart is said by K Law to be a POTENTIAL top 10 overall prospect. Singleton is being talked about as Jason Heyward was in LoA. I’m thinking he could be in the discussion as a top 25-50 overall prospect. Though I’m encouraged and optimistic about Gose, I’m not sure he’s in the top 100 overall discussion.

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  15. Free agent trouble again, the Phils can’t bring in a young reliever who deserves a chance because of Baez. He can’t get a leftie out now Uggla. SHOOOT!

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  16. I caught a lot of flack for opposing the “YOU KNOW WHAT” but my issues where about position and the lackof help THIS year.
    I never imagined it would be this bad.
    The RIZ is back!

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  17. Gregg, Marfis:

    I think Barnes has been flying under the radar. He is a solid fielder, a fine hitter, and might have the upside of a Jason Donald, a good and valued utility IF or a starter for some team in need. Might not have quite the pop of Donald, who might hit 10-15 HR in a full season. All in about 3 years, if he doesn’t plateau out.

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  18. Tom is right on. Barring a significant drop in production I completely expect Singleton and Cosart to be in the top 25 next year. If Singleton played any other position he would easily be top 10.

    I like Gose and in the past month he’s shown some really good progress but he can’t be considered close to the other 2. He strikes out too much and has been caught stealing way too much this year. I think his ceiling is very high but he’s got alot more flaws then the other 2 right now.

    Based on recent progress I could see Valle, Colvin, or Villar rated higher than Gose by years end. I know Villar is kind of a stretch but a 19 year old SS hitting .300 has to be rated pretty high. Of course it really depends on how the rest of the season progresses but all are on fire right now.

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  19. And Trevor May can hopefully improve and put himself in discussion for the number 4 spot. Based on stuff and potential alone, he will need probably need to be considered.

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  20. Jonny, I thought of only saying top 25 for Singleton, but put the range to 50 just based in the small sample size. I do wonder if he hits .350 with a good amount of power and a continued BB/K rate, how high he may go in the rankings.

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  22. Gregg – thanks. I read this before I read your weekly report and the draft was taking away from my box-score reading time.

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  23. If Singleton rakes like this all year he could be top 50. I doubt he goes top 25 based on playing in Low A and his position.

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  26. I completely forgot about May. Ya he will still probably top 5.

    Singleton by years end will have about over 300 PAs which should be enough not to be considered a small sample size. After 122 PAs this year it’s past just being “hot.” Most people expect Singleton to dropoff because hitting .400 is outrageous but In the past 2-3 weeks the lowest his avg. has been is like .396. It’s quite possible that Singleton is just this damn good. Even if his avg. drops to about .360-.370 with a slug. above .550 with over 300 PAs, I couldn’t see how Singleton wouldn’t be considered one of the best hitting prospects in the minors.

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  27. On the Phillies Prospect Alumni front, bad news for Lou Marson as he was sent to the minors with the recall of Carlos Santana.
    Release said he was very good behind the plate and all but they also mentioned the .191 batting average and .500 something OPS.

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  28. 2 for 4 night with all singles just doesn’t do it for me with Singleton. I’m too spoiled now.

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  29. The only thing that will hinder Singleton from a prospect perspective is it’s still Low-A. People might handicap him for that. But, isn’t he young for the level? Or is 18 the median?

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  30. Williamsport starts on June 18. GCL opens on June 21. 2 more boxscores to review and a lotta new guys to discuss.

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  31. Marson threw out something like 34.5% of all baserunners against him but he simply wasn’t hitting. Pretty funny for a guy that was considered an offense first catcher in our system.

    Hopefully he figures things out…he always seemed like a good kid.

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  32. ****The only thing that will hinder Singleton from a prospect perspective is it’s still Low-A. People might handicap him for that. But, isn’t he young for the level? Or is 18 the median?****

    He’s quite young for his league…even if its Lakewood. If he continues to hit, he’ll be very well regarded despite it being Low-A. Besides he MIGHT finish the year in Clearwater (at least a few weeks) if he hits this well through the next 2 months. If he does that, he’d be on the Jason Heyward track of promotion.

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  33. Rodeo,

    In 2008 Heyward posted an .871 OPS in 508 PAs when he was 18 years old in the SAL. Previous to the 2009 season Heyward was ranked 5th by BA and 3rd by K. Law.

    In the same age and league, Singleton is way outperforming Heyward. Of course he will have significantly less plate appearances than Heyward but once he hits 300 PAs I don’t the “small sample” argument can be used.

    Based on this, I feel that unless Singleton has a huge slump, he will easily be a top 25 prospect.

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  34. Flande’s start was tough to watch, this is the 2nd game in a row where before 2 innings were over 7 runs had been given up. I was out at the pool pavilion past the right field wall for their beer tasting festival so it was hard to see what was going on with his pitches. Other than seeing the 8 hits and the monster shot by Laider? The pitching at Reading is so horrible, I should be more specific in saying the starting pitching.

    Also concering was Brown he’s been cooling off fast lately and last night was a 0 for 5… And it wasn’t a case where the team wasn’t hitting after going down 9-2, the team battled back to make it 9-7 in the 7th. 5 players had more than 1 hits. Noteables included Tagg Bozied 2 run homerun, Kevin Nelson 3 run homer (not bad for just coming off the DL 2 days ago) Rizzoti was 3-5 with a double. Also Quentin Berry, I’m forgetting if it was 1 or 2 singles but he walked a few times as well. It was good to see him get on base. He had a couple steals as well.

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  35. Also another note about Brown, I know some may say he just like anybody else is entitled to a bad game. While this is true what I don’t like is the type of outs he has been having, we’ve gone from a lot of loud outs to weak infield grounders the past few games. Ironically Brown started cooling off right around the time Dewayne Wise quit for LV. Is someone pissed they didn’t get a promotion?

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  36. I’ve had a prime seat on the Anthony Gose bandwagon since he started playing in the Phils’ system so it’s good to see the production beginning to justify my belief in his future as a pro.
    A year at a time seems to be his schedule so I’m looking forward to seeing him at Reading next year.

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  37. Singleton’s ranking is interesting. He’s not the physical specimen that Heyward is and plays a less important position (first base), for those reasons, he may not be ranked quite as high, even if he continues to hit like crazy. I’d really like to see him play to get an idea of him. I was thinking about Singleton as kind of a Tony Gwynn, John Kruk type, but having watched some of the video, in terms of swing and body type, he reminds me a little more of Ken Griffey, Jr. at the plate. Anyway, I am in awe that we have this prospect.

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  38. I talked to Barnes after a game this week. He pulled something in his knee on a slide into 2nd base. MRI was negative. They just are resting him. I agree with the comment above: Barnes has been flying under the radar all season. He is a solid fielder, a fine hitter, good team leader, and has the potential to be a valued utility IF or a starter for a team in need. He works hard every day, which is why his peers and coaches from other teams voted him to the All Star team over a lot of higher draft picks.

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  39. Brown is a young hitter and undoubtedly will go through periods where he’s not hitting well or it looks like he doesn’t have a clue. It’s to be expected and, in fact, I’m surprised he’s been so generally consistent this year – when you look at box scores, he usually gets at least one hit.

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  40. Heward was a 1st round pick. Singleton will have to significantly out produce Heward in order to jump that high in the rankings in the eyes of the experts, IMO.

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  41. The questionable pitching throughout the system verifies the mediocrity of their pitching prospects.

    Looking at our draft, we can see that the org people recognized that and thus the heavy emphasis on pitching early and throughout the draft picks.

    On Gose: he’s only 19 (?) and has shown the ability to grind out adjustments to his game. Ranking at/near the top of our list may be a stretch, but there’s no doubt he is answering the call of progress. Add in Gillies, when healthy, and CF looks like it can be well covered in 2-3 years.

    Villar is my personal “under the radar” choice to keep eyes on. J-Roll never (?) hit at/near .300 in his minor league career. Forget about his numerous errors; practice, atleticism and a working at becoming better is his entre key.Absent other viable SS prospects in the system (that other defensive whiz just can’t hit), I’m pleased he is there. No mpower at all, but didn’t J-Roll have the same kind of power numbers coming up?

    Overbeck’s slump IS cause for concern. He had excited us with his numbers but now is dipping down with a bunch of 0-fers. Is he hurt? Notice that he is now DH-ing.

    Looks like Singleton is getting more off-speed pitches. His adjustment is to be noted in future games. My bet is that he will do the job aqnd renew his uber-prospect status by season’s end…though he ain’t doing so bad now. Left field awaits…in ’11?

    Aumont and Ramirez will take time. Like 2-3 seasons it seems.

    Y’all be well!

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  42. Catch is right.

    In the beginning I thought Singleton would be a great on-base guy with great discipline, just like gwynn/kruk. With his ISO being at .290 I am beginning to be convinced that he has the ability to be both a great on-base guy and a great power guy. All the pre-draft reports on Singleton raved about his raw power but questioned his contact ability. I don’t think anyone is questioning his contact ability anymore. I think the Griffey comparison isn’t great because I don’t see Singleton striking out so much but I get your point that he is a better power hitting prospect than we were led to believe.

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  43. JRoll hit for more power in LoA ball (6 homers to 1 for Villar) and committed fewer errors (.960 fielding % compared to .921). He was also a year younger at that level.

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  44. Just wanted to correct what I said about Rizotti last night, he went 3-4, with a double and a walk (not 3-5) and Berry was 2-3 with 3 walks, I remember him stealing but its not in the stats other than the one time he got caught.

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  45. The Griffey comparison was the best I could do at the moment – but from what I saw, he doesn’t look like another Kruk or Gwynn – those guys were more contact hitters. On the strikeouts – if you look at Griffey’s age 18 numbers in A ball (granted it was A+ ball) – on strikeouts, walks and homers, they are roughly level with Singleton’s, although the average is not as high (how could it be)?

    Before I get 35 responses (and about 22 from “Anonymouse”) on how it’s irresponsible to say that Singleton is another Griffey and how I’ve never seen Singleton play (very true – I haven’t – I’ve got a responsible job and a family and I can’t drive out to Lakewood whenever I want), let me be perfectly clear that I am NOT saying that. Ken Griffey is probably one of the 30 or 40 greatest players of all time and was a complete stud from the moment he was drafted. I am just trying to make ROUGH comparison on the body type and the swing (that’s as far as the comparison goes – he’s clearly not the athlete that Griffey was) and, oddly enough, after doing that, I found these interesting statistical similarities. I’m just searching for rough comps to try to better describe Singleton the player.

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  46. I understand why you made the griffey comparison based on the numbers. Actually it’s uncanny how similar they are at the low-A level. And I’m not bashing because your making a HOF comparison. I’m trying to think of a little better comparison just based on the swing. Griffey probably has one of the longest swings ever where I think Singleton has a really short swing similar to Bonds.

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  47. Art: 2011 seems a bit optimistic, but no harm in dreaming. I’d like to see him finish in Clearwater in late July or August. Next spring, I’d like to see them play him in the higher groups and get a few kicks against selected big leaguers if he is killing the ball then.

    Then 2011 looks like some combo of Clearwater and Reading.

    To dream: If he is killing AA pitching at Reading next August, maybe a reward call-up for a special prospect in September. Phils are conservative here, trying not to undermine a prospect’s confidence and there is the Super 2 clockk to consider, but if he is hitting like Rod Carew in AA . . . ????????!!!!!!

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  48. Jonny – I didn’t take your comments as criticism – your points about the swing are well-taken. It would really be nice to see Singleton on tape for a whole game so I could get a better idea of what he does.

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  49. It’s so hard to say how Singleton should proceed – but if he hits like this next year, yes, I would expect a combo of Clearwater and Reading. The earliest he could possibly arrive at CBP, in my opinion, would be May of 2012, and that’s assuming he becomes the second coming of Jason Heyward . . . . a HUGE assumption.

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  50. Cont’d:

    But if I had to bet, I would say they will not bring him up unless hitting .380 or something like that in AA (not likely). THey might even start him at Reading or LHV in 2012 to delay the clock till mid-season. Lots of other factors to consider, such as need.

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  51. Catch and Jonny: The tapes I have seen and scouting reports say he has a classic power hitter swing, a little bit of an uppercut, putting lots of backspin on the ball for distance. He hits for average because he sees the ball so well and is selective, only swinging at pitches he can drive.

    (Have him talk to Ryan Howard.)

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  52. Another issue – absent an unforseen change of circumstances, he’s not coming up in the near future unless he’s a corner outfielder. That conversion alone should delay his arrival, perhaps by as much as a full year, assuming, again, he’s still hitting like this.

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  53. Question: Does anyone have a feel for the XT guys, where they are going? Guys like Inch, Altherr, Mitchell, Dugan, Hudson, Inch, Sampson?

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  54. Good point on fielding. Phils are conservative there. Will want him to be a minimum of adequate. Although batting .370 in high minors might alter that perspective.

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  55. From Ben Badler’s Twitter:

    “Biggest prospect riser of the year? Mike Trout, but you already knew that. No. 2? Might be PHI Low-A 1B Jonathan Singleton. Love the bat”

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  56. Caught the Lakewood game last night, some observations. Singleton is as advertised, definitely has a chance to be special. Hewitt does some things very good. He plays right field very well, has speed and a cannon for a arm. I think his troubles hitting are because he drops his right shoulder when he swings which gives him somewhat of an uppercut to his swing.
    Shreve looked good the first time through the order, got tagged a bit, adjusted and got stronger as the game went along.

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  57. I just saw a article on csnphilly that said the when the phillies were looking to trade lee the yankees were willing to add jesus montero but the phillies wanted more. Looking back they probably wish they accepted that.

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  58. Not sure who else the Yanks would have included in there and not saying that I don’t think Montero is an elite prospect but for those disappointed in Gillies this year, Montero has been much worse. He’s hitting .216 with a .114 ISO and 8 passed balls.

    I think Amaro was intelligent in taking what he got instead of trading him to the yankees. If trading Lee was in fact eminent. Not really sure who he was asking for or what the yanks final offer was so I guess I will never truly know if it was smart. But at this point the Yanks have to be considered in our division in terms of being a direct competitor to us so I understand the incredibly steep demands.

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  59. I do not believe for one minute, that the Yankees offered Montero for Cliff Lee. Makes absolutely no sense. That is what the Blue Jays requested for Halladay, and the Yankees balked. Why would they turn around and offer that for Lee

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  60. Gillies was tearing it up before he got injured. Horrible start, but showed great promise after that.

    Is there a chance that Singleton gets called up to Clearwater or is that pushing it despite his .410 average?

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  61. Mike,

    We all saw what Lee did to the yanks in the WS. I have no doubt that the Yanks offered Montero. I just feel that the holdup was the followup prospects. I’m sure Amaro wanted multiple elite prospects where the Yanks figured Montero and a few avg. prospects would be enough.

    I wanted to comment on my opinion on Montero. I have never seen him play so I can’t truly pass judgment but I don’t see what the big deal is with this guy because he projects as the future DH for the yanks, not their catcher. To be the DH of the future for the yankees you have to be a monster hitter.

    Maybe I’m wrong but it seems to me that he projects more of DH than C based on what I’ve read/heard.

    If you project as a DH in the minors you need to post Mike Stanton type numbers and he has not done that.

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  62. Singleton makes the hot sheet

    No. 7 JONATHAN SINGLETON, 1B
    PHILLIES
    Team: low Class A Lakewood (South Atlantic)
    Age: 18
    Why He’s Here: .409/.500/.773 (9-for-22), 2 HR, 2 2B, 5 RBIs, 6 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 1-for-1 SB
    The Scoop: Singleton looks well on his way to becoming one of 2010’s top breakout prospects. The Phillies’ 6-foot-2, 215 pound first baseman has shown a little bit of everything since being called up to Lakewood a little over a month ago. He’s shown natural power and loft in his swing with six home runs and an ability to stay patient and work the count. And he can flat out rake—he’s reached base in all but two of the 28 games he’s played. Singleton would be leading the Sally League batting race by almost 50 points if he had enough at-bats to qualify, and his .410 average since joining the BlueClaws on May 13 ranks fourth in the minors over that span.

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  63. and the hot sheet chat with a lil shout out to our scouts in there as well.

    Michael (Cary NC): So what did Jonathan Singleton do this week that stood out more than the past few weeks? Statistically this wasn’t his strongest week at all, and could probably argued as his weakest. Is he now considered a “prospect” by BA standards and not just a ‘flash in the pan’?

    J.J. Cooper: He’s a definite prospect, but he was considered a prospect before the season began. If we did the Phillies’ top 10 right now, he’d be near the top of the list, moving up from the No. 20 spot he held before the season (which was a pretty aggressive ranking for a eighth-round pick who had only played in the GCL). Give the Phillies’ scouting staff some credit they got Brody Colvin and Jonathan Singleton last year with their seventh and eighth-round picks and spent $1.1 million combined to sign the two of them.

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  65. OK, open discussion, so here’s a topic:

    Best guys flying under the radar, lost in the grass, etc. this year:

    Jeremy Barnes, Luke Wertz, Darrin Ruf, Harold Garcia, Joel Naughton, Mike Stutes, Mike Zagurski.

    Seems like most other guys doing well have gotten some discussion time, but these are not mentioned much and having nice years, looking like they might compete for role player job at some point if they continue along current lines.

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  67. PSuJoe,

    I predict a rookie season like Heyward. Heyward played the entire season at low-A and then played the last 12 games at high-A just to give him a taste.

    If singleton doesn’t drop his avg. below .350 I really couldn’t see them keeping him in Lakewood even though I really don’t think it would matter. I mean what does 2-3 weeks really do for a prospect.

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  68. DD, Harold Garcia is the best of the under the radar prospects. He is the 1st player I check on Cleawater, when scanning the box scores.

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  69. Johny 2,

    Heyward went to A+ after hitting 323 in the SALL with less power than Singleton. One can hope he does as well. He’s pure 1B with Howard signed 5 years so no hurry.

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  71. On that list, I follow Garcia the most too – followed closely by Stutes and, somewhat less, Zagurski.

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  72. Agree. I would say Garcia has the best shot at being a decent hitting big league infielder. Of the position players, he is followed by Ruf, with an OK chance to be a little better than Andy Tracy and therefore maybe get a big league job with a lower team. Then Barnes, who could be a decent utility guy. I mentioned Naughton because he is hitting fairly well this year and is an OK receiver, I believe. Agree Stutes and Zags have the best chance at pitcher, but Wertz is quietly having a really nice first half. No one is hitting him. Not sure what his stuff is.

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  74. Six days after the Phils traded Lee to the M’s, the Yankees gave up a package including Vizcaino in exchange for Vasquez. The Yanks’ offer of Montero in a package for Lee sounds plausible. The Braves made a better deal for Vazquez than we did for Lee. Vizcaino is a 19-year-old with talent comparable to Cosart and Teheran.

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  75. Let me throw in my two cents on Jesus Montero. I’m a frequent attendee of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre games and I have as good a view of the backstop as anyone in the park. Defensively, I don’t see any possibility that he sticks behind the plate. To this date, he has played 44 games behind the plate and 53 runners have stolen against him. That’s more than a runner a game, which is just appalling. And he’s just 20, which means he’s going to fill out and become even more awkward behind the plate. Quite frankly, I’m surprised the Yankees haven’t turfed him from behind the plate already. He’s also slow, too slow to possibly make him an outfielder. It’s 1B or DH.

    As for his hitting, he will come around. He’s hit before, and from watching him hit he is certainly not overmatched or anything. But for the Phils to pick him up in a trade for Lee would have been useless. Unless he displaces Ryan Howard he’d have no role here.

    By the way, I’ve found that looking at total steals against is a greater measure of a catcher’s throwing ability than the stolen base percentage.

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  76. After watching Herndon tonight (and other nights), I’m really starting to think this guy was a ST sensation and not worth keeping, considering we have Schwimmer, Zags and Mathison in the minors ready to step in. What do you think?

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  77. dont worry about Singleton position…I would bet in 4 yrs there is a DH in the NL anyway.

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  78. Jiwan James has been on fire. In his last 10 games he is hitting .372 and is 2 for 3 with a couple of doubles so far tonight.

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  79. No way Dude – I think the AL would repeal before the NL added the DH. It is the “Senior Circuit” after all.

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  81. Matt, I wouldn’t dismiss Herndon that quick. The one thing he can do that the other three can’t is pitch multiple innings like he is doing tonight. Would you trust Mathieson in a three plus inning stint? I’d think twice.

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  82. Singleton has 4 years to learn to play LF. Why are people worried about the DH? If Blanks can be stationed out there, and Yonder Alonzo can be forced to LF, then Singleton can move.

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  83. Another question answered with the phillies included in the answer

    Mike (Eagan, MN): Who might be some of the early candidates for #1 overall prospect in 2011? Most of BA’s 2010 top-15 will have “graduated” to the bigs, and those who didn’t don’t seem to have much production right now—Montero, Jennings, Ackley, i.e. Thanks for chatting!

    J.J. Cooper: We’ve been talking about that around the office. There has been a mass defection of talent in the past couple of weeks now that the Super 2 deadline has passed. The three you mentioned are still in the discussion and I’d add to that Domonic Brown, Mike Montgomery, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino and even Mike Trout. And before I get bombarded with 20 more guys who could be included with those, there are a number of other candidates. The reality is that after the last wave got promoted there is no clear No. 1s like Heyward and Strasburg were before the season—seven of our preseason Top 10 are now in the big leagues.

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  84. Sorry. I didn’t make myself clear,

    Left Field awaits Singleton in 2011 IMO, but not at the ML level. I mean he should be moved to LF wherever he plays in the minors. 1st base, as we know, is taken.

    Also. CatStoker: in comparing SSs, I said that J-Roll never hit near .300 in his minor lg career. Is that not true?

    If you want to comment, at least mention what you are disagreeing on. And then tell us what is inaccurate about what was said…!?

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  85. ****Left Field awaits Singleton in 2011 IMO, but not at the ML level. I mean he should be moved to LF wherever he plays in the minors. 1st base, as we know, is taken.****

    Yeah, I could see that. Maybe give him some innings there in Winter Ball and then transition him to LF. He’s athletic enough that he shouldn’t embarrass himself out there.

    I wonder how his arm is…I’ve heard that its not that great.

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  86. From Baseball Beginnings scouting report on JS:

    “Below-average arm action and arm strength make him 1B, LF or DH AL-type player. Average footwork around bag, rough hands; all correctable. Below-average runner, slow first step, better underway. All should improve with conditioning.”

    Also:

    “Better athlete than he’s given credit for, should allow him to grade up other tools to satisfactory ML levels. “

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  87. Riddle:

    Who phils prospect guy who is 19 yrs old, 5’11”, 184, and plays…

    LF has had 41 minor lg at bats and in those small number has NEVER struck out? And has a n oba which includes 7 walks and 5 2bhs, along with a .317 ba??

    He now plays for the DSL/VSL team…lost the team but you can check it out.

    Name: Alexis Salazar

    Yes…that sure is a small sample size, but it seems very rare to me that ANY hitter does not strike out once in 41 ABs.

    Young guy: just hinting that he may be fun to follow….

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  88. To DiamondDerby: Yup, that’s what I was thinking of. He’d be fine in LF then. I mean, its not a defensive position anyway so as long as he’s not immobile, they could toss him there and take advantage of his bat.

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  89. That’s the VSL Phillies that Alexis Salazar plays for.

    Is he one of the guys that the Phils gave substantial bonuses to?

    By the way: #s 3. 4, & 5 hitters for thatteam are all over .300.

    Hope they keep it up; it’s early.

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  90. “Yes…that sure is a small sample size, but it seems very rare to me that ANY hitter does not strike out once in 41 ABs.”

    I ran a search on Baseball-Ref. In the last ten years the Phils had nine stretches of a player going 41+ ABs without a strikeout. Three from Polanco, two from Rollins, two from David Bell, and streaks from Victorino and Johnny Estrada. It’s one of those things that makes you go “huh.” But it’s pretty flukish.

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  91. Thanks for the research.

    You know, you were citing Major League players. This guy is only 19 and just started in pro ball.

    IMO, that is remarkable. And may lead to another good signing turning out very good ahead. Just hoping and wondering.

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  93. Does anyone know what Kevin Walter’s HS ranking was before the draft? His scouting report seems too good for an 18th round pick who is uninjured.

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  94. Naylor didn’t throw the best game allowing 5 runs over the course of 7 innings work. Reading’s Offense scored 11 runs helping him out greatly. Worst of all for Naylor he gave up a 2 run jack to Richmonds pitcher. It was crowded and I wan on the move a lot being a smoker so I didn’t see every pitch but there were at least a couple walks and I only recall one k. Readings offense was really the star and it was the team as a whole, Quentin Berry was named player of the game. He stole 3 bases and had a nice hit early plus a few walks. Rizzoti had a couple Rbi’s as did Tagg Bozied. There were no home runs for Reading’s O it was all manufactured runs scored, lots of steals from Berry and Spidale had one as well. Spidale, Galvis and even Ozzie Chavez all had solid hits. Brown had at least one hit and also had 2 walks and Sac fly.

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  95. Well I was wrong about Naylor and the walks, (sorry I had gotten that info from my ex g/f who was with me at the game, apparently she isn’t the best to go to for info) I was riht about only the 1 k. Naylors stat line in the 7 innings was 5 runs, all earned, 10 hits, 2 HR’s (again one of the being to the opposing pitcher) and the 1 k.

    As for the O- doubles- Spidale (2), Rizotti, Suomi, and Chavez.

    Stolen bases- Berry 3, SPidale 1, Chavez- 1

    RBI’s- Brown- 3, Rizzoti- 2, Berry- 2, Bozied- 2, Galvis

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  96. mike77- Walter was ranked 134 overall by BA. Was getting 4th to 6th round buzz. Would be a very nice signing for the Phillies.

    He must have indicated late that he wanted to much. That’s the only reason I can think of.

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  98. I agree on Tyler Ross. On one hand I am interested because LSU felt him good enough to be part of the group to replace Micah Gibbs. Most LSU targets are a good indicator of talent.

    On the other hand I am not sure how a guy like Andrew Susac fell to the 13th round, which seemed low enough, but Ross falls to the 50th round. Either he isn’t that good or he just isn’t good enough to command the kind of money he must be asking for.

    Either way I am not sure how excited I should get by his signing or lack thereof. At the end of the day he is a C, so I want the Phillies to sign him and add him to the mix. But I have no idea how to value him. I would love to get some info on exactly what he is asking for.

    The one article somebody posted was maybe a signing bonus that would equal the cost of his college degree. I am not sure what a full ride with perks costs these days at LSU but I am guessing between $100K to $150K.

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  99. Barnes did hurt his knee and did have a mri and was neg. But last year he didn’t break his leg he steep in a hole running home and had a hair line break in his foot.And people forget he made all-stars last year too.People on this blog thinks that if you not under 20 years of age your over the hill.That why most of those guys go under the radar.

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  100. I wonder if there’s some pressure from MLB to make sure these “unsignable” guys get drafted, so they at least can not become amateur free agents.

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  102. Nobody, Tyler Ross was the 52nd rated player in Florida. Last year the Phillies drafted the 26th rated player, Marlon Mitchell, also a catcher, out of Florida. They signed him for around 100k. Seems like a good comp to me.

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  103. How does a guy like Cosart go in the 38th round if he’ll take 2nd round money? Maybe we get lucky again. Do teams usually agree to make good on a scholly if things don’t work out with a pro career?

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  104. Thanks for the information, rgatta. That would make Walter the 3rd highest rated HS pitcher the Phillies drafted. Seems like Walter will be 2nd largest over slot this year, all things being equal.
    Did not realize that Chad Thompson was rated higher than Brodie Colvin before the 2009 season. Could be a good pick.

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  105. The round makes little difference for guys who have said they want Fort Knox to draw them away from an attractive scholarship/college experience/education/prominent D1 baseball program.

    Teams who draft these guys must start with an evaluation of where that player should be ranked in THEIR view, not BAs of BPs or some other scouting service–although teams do factor these ratings in with various weightings, depending on their view.

    So if a Cosart, for example, is top 50 in their view, they are willing to start negotiations at a top 50 bonus, regardless of where they select him-18, 25, 38, or 50. Then they are also willing to go over that theoretical slot number if they really like a guy (Cosart, Stewart, and Singleton), but not if they feel a guy has a bit more risk (Susac’s hitting questions).

    They try to get the guys they can sign for slot before the later rounds and then draft a certain number of fliers, hoping to sign a percentage, the number depending on budget.

    The question I have is this: Sure, many teams do not play this game at any large scale, lacking the budget. But many teams do play. How many of the Phils’ desired fliers go off the board before they get around to making that pick? They must have a ranking of fliers–the guys with the best combo of high ceiling, lower risk, and proprietary intel indicating they might get them to sign when others have written them off. So the specific round may not make a difference (38 may be as good as 37), but maybe you can’t take that too far. Maybe someone else takes Cosart at 39 last year if Phils had waited longer.

    So it would be a cool analysis to list all the guys passed over for signability, see which teams are in that game and to what degree, and who signs whom.

    Just my understanding of how this works. Those with more detailed knowledge, feel free to correct.

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  106. Astudillo- was a catcher last season and is listed as a catcher , but has only played 2B and 3B this season. Most AB’s and highest BA, so maybe they keep playing him and see what develops. Of maybe he goes to the States to begin the Short Seasons, now that Barnes and Villar are injured, especiallyif they have a problem signing their 2 Middle Infield draftees.

    Villar – if you check the game recap, he was thrown out on an infield grounder to end an inning and was replaced to start the next inning. Game story says he was injured. No word on severity. I guess it was a hamstring thing, so maybe he goes to DL for a week.

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  107. * How does a guy like Cosart go in the 38th round if he’ll take 2nd round money? *

    Excellent question that I can’t answer. Yes, Villar pulled a hamstring. Not a good time for it fighting for the division lead.

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  108. I thought the reason Cosart lasted so long was signabliliy? Most teams had him as unsignable, but mike77 knows more,maybe I am wrong.

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  109. Villar did not pull a hamstring. He was hit in the lower back on a pickoff throw to 2nd base and was later taken out of the game.

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  110. Cosart’s reason was signability, thought we all knew that. All of the later fliers are either signability or bad injuries.

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  111. I know this probably isn’t the best forum for this but I’d like to hear some thoughts on who people think will be the Cosart/Singleton/Colvin of this years draft.

    My vote would be for Jonathan Musser RHP who was drafted about 25th rd.

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  112. jonny you have any scouting report on musser, cant find any on him or walters, trying to find some info on some of the hs kids, I know frazier is a hard to sign who is a good prospect but the others dont know, have watch the catcher for texas for two games, he hits the ball hard, from what i saw.

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  113. From what I’ve read, Musser was the top rated HS pitcher in the state of Iowa before the season started but then injured his non throwing shoulder in a rundown at some point this season. He’s 6’4″ and throws about 89-91 based on the video I saw. I think he was a great pick but am not sure if he has a strong commitment anywhere.

    I watched the Tex game today only for the first few innings. I just noticed the line drive he hit to second base where the guy made an insane catch. Tough luck but it was a good AB but Rupp.

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  118. What was Cosart thought to want? Or did he just say he was going to Missouri and that was it? His bonus doesn’t seem out of line for his talent.

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  119. Woo…I was getting worried about Singleton as he seemed like he was slowing down there. Good work!

    33 RBI in 30 games now for Singleton.

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  120. Singleton really needed that, he was slumping there. I mean his slug. dropped to .683 which is pretty unacceptable.

    Since we all pretty much accept Singleton as the next babe, we should really just move on to Valle who has like 7 homers in 12 games or so. He really needs to start getting some love. I was at the game on Monday and he was destroying the ball in almost every AB (2 HRs 1 SF).

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  121. 5 HRs and a 1.096 OPS for Valle in his last 10 starts. He’s finally warming up after a rough, rough start.

    .727 OPS on the year now.

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  122. Trevor May was the only pitcher in the Florida State League All Star game to strike out the side. Hyatt pitched a clean two strike out inning. DeFratus took the loss and Overbeck took the collar.

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  123. I am at a loss for words to describe Singleton. But I don’t want to jinx the guy, so I’ll shut up and just watch for the time being. I’ve never seen a below-the-radar prospect jump up the lists so quickly. It must be similar to what happened with Pujols (just imagining the scenario here – I have no personal knowledge of this played out with Pujols).

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  124. Pujols was a JC pick in 1999. and only played 1 full season in the minors at Age 20 (2000). He played at 3 separate levels that year (A+, AA, AAA) and was a full time starter the next year for the Cardinals.

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  126. I do recall that much with Pujols (actually, it was Low A, High A and AAA) – one year in the minors. The amazing thing with him was that he spent almost the entire season in low A ball, getting only slightly more than 100 ABs above that level and almost all of them in A+ ball (only 15 ABs in AAA). He then made the major league team out of ST in 2001, which seemed a huge jump and entirely bizarre at the time. But the Cardinals clearly knew what they were doing in this instance.

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  127. I wonder what the success rate is with JC pix. It would seem to be a safer pick that either college or HS.

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  128. It would seem that Valle could be susceptible to timing slumps,because of that leg lift, toe tap, thing he does. On the flip side, when he gets his timing, he takes off. Hope his hot streaks last longer than his slumps.

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  129. Catch22, luck played a role with Pujols as well. The Cardinals were planning to go north with Bobby Bonilla as their 4C backup. When he came out of ST with an injury, the Cards gave Pujols a shot.

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  130. I didn’t know that about Pujols. However, even if he hadn’t made the team out of ST, he would have hit about .370 with power in AAA and would have been on the team by June anyway.

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  131. So, Villar not injured much, as he was back playing. Looks like Schoenberger will play 2B for now, or until Barnes is cleared up. Looks like McConnell was called up from XST to fill a reserve role for now. Alan Schoenberger at .284 , maybe he can hold a spot, and that might effect what happens after Signees come aboard. Now that FSL All-Star game is over, maybe they move Overbeck up, now which of the 3 College 3B prospects sign and where are they assigned?

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  135. Happ’s line at Reading today. 2 1/3 inning, 4 k’s 1 walk, 1 hit batter, 6 hits, 4 runs all earned, one was a 2 run homer.

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  136. Uneducated guess at draft signing bonuses:

    01. Biddle: 1,160,000
    02. Garner: 470,000
    03. C Rudd: 300,000
    04. Morgado: 200,000
    05. Frazier: 650,000
    06. Eldemire: 170,000
    07. Buchanan: 67,000
    08. Malcolm: 66,000
    09. Brenton: 200,000
    10. Hollands: 66,000
    14. Numata: 100,000
    17. Nesseth: 100,000
    20. Walter: 500,000
    24. Thompson:100,000

    Unless my math is off, that is 4.15 million for the key signs. I believe they will sign at least 2 of 4, out of Frazier, Walter, Hodgskins and Musser. They seem to be the above slot guys to me. Everyone else gets minimum bonuses or not signed.

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  138. Venezuela must be in their rainy season. 11 rainouts for the VSL Phils this year. 5 games have been rained out in the last 4 days. I think the last time they played was Wednesday. Prospects have to play. I remember the GCL a few years back had an entire week rained out.

    I’m sorry, I thought this was a weather board.

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  139. Someone asked about where the XST guys are starting out. The article in the Inquirer about Gose mentions that Dugan and Hudson will be at W’port. Not surprising.

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