June 2 Discussion Post

Box Score Recap

Two bonus box scores today!

Lehigh Valley loses 5-3.
Lehigh Valley loses 3-0.

Reading loses 12-10.

Brown: 4/6 – 2B (11) – HR (10)
Rizzotti: 2/4, still hitting .364 after 51 AB, .725 slugging %

Clearwater wins 7-5.

Gose: 1/2, 1 BB, SB (21)…. .432 OB% in last 10 games

Lakewood wins 8-7 (resumption of previously suspended game)

Santana: 2/6, 2B (10)
Singleton: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB

Lakewood wins 3-0

Singleton: 2/3, 2B (9) – .432/.500/.716 in 74 AB
Cosart: 7 IP – 0 ER – 3 H – 0 BB – 5 K

83 thoughts on “June 2 Discussion Post”

  2. Singleton is only 11 for 19 against lefties so far. Platoon player? 🙂

    Cosart no walks, 3 hits in 7 IP.

    If I were Phils, I would hire Pinkerton to bodyguard those two 24/7.

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  3. From BlueClaws blog:

    “After going 1-3, 11.15 in April, Colvin went 2-3, 3.21 in May…His May ERA not including a 5/12 start at Greenville (1.2 IP, 5 ER) was 1.97.”

    Let’s hope the month over month improvement continues. Would like to see him manage games better where he does not have his best stuff and flirt with a QS in those games.

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  4. From Asbury Park Press: on Colvin’s May 27 game (3 good innings, then gives up 4 runs in 4th):

    “But the scout had seen enough of the young right-hander (5-1, 3.12 ERA) to be impressed.

    “First of all he reminds me a lot of A.J. Burnett (when he was in low Class A),” the scout said. “”The ball really jumps out of his hand.

    “He’s got a chance to be a top end of the rotation guy.

    “I think (in the fourth inning) a lot of the hitters were sitting dead red on his fastball. They weren’t located well.

    “He had a little bit of trouble getting his breaking ball and changeup over the plate. They’ve got some pretty good hitters.”

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  5. sometimes I think we set our expectation to high for these young players. There will be good and bad outing.

    What matters is what these young players learn and take away from each of these experiances.

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  7. Hewitt still struggling with curve ball…

    sometimes I think we set our expectation to high for these young players. There will be good and bad outings.

    What matters is what these young players learn and take away from each of these experiances.

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  10. The best stat of the night 12-3-5. that is cosart’s ground ball-fly ball- k ratios. that is extremely impressive!

    nothing more to say about singleton except add me to the list of people who are very excited about his start

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  12. PPFan said:

    “The best stat of the night 12-3-5. that is cosart’s ground ball-fly ball- k ratios.”

    Wow, they got the ball in the air 3 times in 7 innings. Unreal, mon.

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  13. Thanks for pointing out how good Gose has been of late, PP. milb.com has his OBP over the past 10 games at .467, which is obviously a hot streak, but the point is he has improved from the beginning of the season and appears to be much more patient at the plate. He had only 3 walks in 22 games in April but had 14 walks in 29 games in May. To me that’s a very promising sign from a young player who’s known for his speed.

    He showed improvement late in the year last year at Lakewood. Perhaps he has moved up the learning curve faster this year. For a top 5 prospect at the beginning of the season, we should be getting excited about this kind of development. Let’s hope he keeps it up.

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  14. Also worth noting that while Overbeck continues to strike out a lot, he walked a lot more in May. Hopefully he is improving his patience at the plate too.

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  15. I haven’t thought about our top 5 prospect list in a long time, but, at this point, I’d have to think that Singleton and Cosart are on it. My top 5 list would look something like this.

    1. Brown
    2. Cosart
    3. Singleton
    4. Colvin
    5. Mathieson
    6. Gose
    7. Gillies
    8. Santana
    9. Overbeck
    10. Ramirez

    Come back soon, Phillippe!

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  18. Actually, I’d probably replace Ramirez with May on the top ten – still have a lot of hope for him – in fact, he could go almost anywhere from 6-10, but I think he may be just out of the top 5 for now.

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  19. I would prefer to look at the top ten in this manner:

    1. Brown
    2. Cosart
    3. Singleton
    4. May
    5. Mathieson
    6. Colvin
    7. Gose
    8. Gillies
    9. Overbeck
    10. James
    I would have Santana, Aumont and Ramirez knocking on the door. Valle is heating up too. The season is really just beginning for some of these guys. Let’s see how much a few key guys can show consistency while making adjustments.

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  20. Is it me or does Singleton look like he could be Ryan Howard’s little brother? Could you imagine if we had two of them on the same team?

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  21. I really have to temper my enthusiasm for Singleton. In an organization just about void of true offensive potential (Dom Brown the obvious exception), I just can’t wait to see this guy develop. My favorite part is the things i’ve read about his approach. He doesn’t swing at bad balls, he doesn’t get fooled and get off balance. By his numbers against lefties, it appears that he hangs in. It’s so early, but hard not to get excited. I’ve had a chance to watch a lot of Jason Heyward play and he is just a phenomenal player for the age of 20. His advanced hitting approach is incredible. If Singleton has this same approach, which seems possible, he COULD be VERY special. I will try to at least wait a full season before I declare him the second coming though!!

    But it is nice to have this type of hitter, with a truly professional approach, in the organization. On a team of free swingers, let’s hope some others learn from him and improve their games accordingly.

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  22. Ramirez is actually pitching pretty well in Clearwater. K’s have gone up, BB’s have gone done from last year and is FIP is a respectable 3.59. Also giving up less than a hit per inning with a unlucky BABIP of .325.

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  23. Mathieson is dominat triple a pitcher, cant figure how y rate a ball starters over him. I know its a opinion, but to me after brown its mathieson right now.

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  24. I’m as excited as anybody about Overbeck’s year so far, but 9 is way too high for him. He’s 24 in a few days and on a repeat stint in Clearwater. And it’s only been 2 months.

    If you’re thinking of putting Overbeck there, then Rizzotti needs to be there as well seeing as he’s doing better at Reading (.364/.444/.709) than Overbeck is a level below (.332/.397/.611) and he’s only 6 months older.

    Knocking down Gose/Gillies/May for slow starts is fairly short-sighted IMO.

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  25. No one would rate a bullpen arm over a potential top of the rotation starter, regardless of level. Not saying I’m a big fan, but Keith Law would never rate a bullpen arm in his top 50. Rankings are for perceived future value, not current potential replacement value.

    Look at it this way, what do you think the Phillies could get in a trade for Mathieson vs. Cosart. it’s not even close, they really probably couldn’t get much for Mathieson, but if they were to consider Cosart, they could probably get a premium name. Jason Knapp and some others got us Cliff Lee … Cosart has more value than Knapp ever did.

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  26. Is anyone else on-board the Ebelin Lugo bandwagon with me? Don’t know what/ how hard he throws, but this kid has put up solid numbers everywhere he’s been.

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  27. Surprised Mathieson is rated that high. Not really sure the Phils think that highly of him, with durability a question.

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  28. Top 10 Phillies prospects:

    01. Brown
    02. Cosart
    03. May
    04. Singleton
    05. Gose
    06. Santana
    07. Gillies
    08. Ramirez
    09. Mathieson
    10. Villar
    honorable mention: Aumont

    Overbeck should not even be the conversation.

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  29. Do you really think Cosart has more value than Knapp ever did? Knapp had incredible numbers before he got hurt.

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  30. Crunching some BABIP numbers for pitchers at Clearwater, and I’m coming up with Trevor May having one over .500. Somebody correct my numbers if they’re faulty, but he’s got 65 K’s in 43.1 IP with 38 hits (4 of which were homers). Obviously the 32 walks is the biggest concern but if he can refine his control even a little bit, his stuff is pretty untouchable once the BABIP comes back to earth.

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  33. TAFNAMB: I came up with a BABIP of .384 based on your numbers for May, but I’m an accountant not a sabrmetrician, so I might have done it wrong.

    130 outs – 65 k = 65 outs on balls in play

    65 + 38 hits – 4 hr = 99 balls put in play

    38 / 99 = .3838
    or
    34 / 99 = .3434
    not sure which

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  34. I understand the criticism with Overbeck, but, hey, it’s a list, disagree if you want. Rizzotti would have been at the end of the next group of ten – his playing first base limits his potential and utility.

    Again, May should have been on the list – probably falls just outside of the top 5 for me based on control issues and scouts comments, which have not been as glowing (in terms of his raw stuff) as I would have expected. But he’d probably be somewhere around 6 or so. Of course, these things can change quickly. Aumont, however, is definitely out of the top ten for the time being – just too much funky stuff going on with his delivery, velocity and control for me to put him on this list.

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  35. Agreed that Cosart is a better prospect now than Knapp ever was while he was on the Phils, for the reasons stated.

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  36. Just a quick statistical question here: Why don’t HRs count when figuring out BABIP?

    And I think that Overbeck may crack the Top 10 if he can continue his productivity at Reading. He’s certainly at a point now (almost two months) where his numbers are to be considered more than just a hot streak. I like that he is drawing more walks, but can’t help but wonder if the opposition is pitching around him (it still shows that he has some discipline though)

    – Jeff

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  37. Home runs don’t count because there’s no chance they drop. BABIP measures the percentage of balls in play that find a hole.

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  38. And thanks Alan for the link, although nothing wastes time at work like a good number crunch.

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  39. I do think cosart has mire value than knapp ever did, but also take into account that knapp was hurt when traded and he still got us Lee. Cosart has way better control making him a far superior prospect in my mind. Knapp was thought to be a potential bullpen arm as well, decreasing his value somewhat

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  40. While you guys are cranking out your new top 10 lists, remember that we should have lots of talent at Williamsport also. Hudson, Dugan, Altherr, Angelle, Inch, and Cespedis are all potential big time players.
    Unfortunately, a 23 yr old at Clearwater is probably not a top 10 guy. Singleton will eventually cool down and how he handles that will probably tell us about his potential. Colvin is figuring it out, Sanchez is figuring it out but May, he’s still struggling with his control, and Aumont appears to be totallly uncomfortable with his new motion.

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  41. I was looking at that link, did you see Cosart’s 6.67 K/bb ratio. That has to make you smile.

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  42. Reading game was out of control, 22 total runs, off of 33 total hits, 2 errors for Reading, both by first baseman Brian Stavisky who sucked as there were almost another 2 errors by him in the game. It was an absolute slugfest. Josh Fogg looked absolutley terrible giving up 7 runs in 1 2/3 innning. (six of which were in the top of the 2nd) Not that the “D” was helping as Stavisky’s 2 errors occured in the 1st and 2nd. Tagg Bozied also had a botched grounder at 3rd base in the 2nd inning which could have been scored error but for some reason was scored as a hit. As for Fogg I had no idea as everything I heard was that Anserson was going to be pitching so hearing it was going to be Fogg took me back a bit. But this guy just isn’t good at all. Walking batters, gving up hits all of the places, and like his said his D wasn’t much assistance. The “O” brought its A game though and slowly chiped away at the 7-1 lead eventually tying it 8-8 after 4 innings. Anderson came in to blow the lead gving up 4 runs in the 7th and 8th. Reading fought back making it 10-12 bottom of the 9th had two guys on with Bozied hit a liner to SS and that was game. a shame cause I was hoping to see another Rizzotii walk off as he was on deck.
    Catcher John Suomi had a great game 3-5, with a HR a double and 3 rbi’s, Dom Brown seemed to get back on track after his recent cool off. 4-6 with HR and a double. Stavisky made up for his ridiculous fielding (most of which by the way were soft grounders or bad transfer from glove to hand) with 3 singles. Everyone else was more or less average. One notable though was Galvis who only went 1 for 4 but it was a triple.

    I don’t understand Mr. Roadcap’s managerial strategy. steals so early in the game this is the 3rd game in the last 5 where I’ve seen him do this with Brown or Spidale. I don’t understand stealing early in a game with your best hitters coming up. Its the 2nd day in a row where its costed them 2 runs early in a game.

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  43. I’m gonna need Overbeck to produce consistently at Reading before vaulting him over the guys at low A with a much higher ceiling. It’s only been two months, and while he’s been phenomenal, it’s hard to give him so much love already at a repeat level.

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  44. Knapp was younger, taller, threw harder and struck out more batters. Before Knapp got hurt, he was getting as much or more national attention than Cosart. Obviously post-injury, its a different story, but I’m not sure you can say Cosart is definitely worth more now than Knapp was at this point last year.

    I prefer Cosart to Knapp, but we’re probably overrating Cosart somewhat because he’s our best pitching prospect, whereas Knapp was always behind Drabek. A lot, or at least some clubs have a handful of young pitchers like Cosart. I’d take Cosart’s better command and more advanced secondary pitches, but others might prefer the bigger, younger, harder thrower.

    So do we now have three top 50 prospects in Singleton, Cosart and Brown? I think you pretty much have to move Singleton ahead of May, due to the success of one and struggles of the other. If May’s numbers dropped in Reading, that would be forgivable, but he’s still facing some very inexperienced batters.

    I’m curious about Nick Hernandez’s stuff. Can someone give me a quick description of his repertoire? All I know is that he’s a lefty with moderate velocity and good control.

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  45. Artist fka Michael Bourn:

    Thanks for the answer. I’m not sure I agree with it, but I think the whole point of BABIP is to see what someone’s average on balls that can be fielded is, correct?

    Of course, then there is the issue of Inside the Park Homers, but I’m guessing they’re not hit all that frequently and thus statistically insignificant

    – Jeff

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  46. Mike77 – My list looks almost exactly like yours. I have JC Ramirez ahead of Gilles. I had Santana high after last season and I’m not going to knock him down too much.

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  47. GCP=Gose CAN play….ive been telling you all along….also, for argument’s sake, let’s say Singleton is batting in the 400 range after 100AB’s…why wuoldnt we move him to Clearwater? Im all for not rushing a prospect, but that just seems counterproductive and bad habits could set in.

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  48. RE: Cosart vs. Knapp

    The strike outs per 9 are about the same. Knapp walked 3 more batters per 9 than Cosart has, and Cosart gets way way more ground balls.

    Those are the two reasons I think Cosart’s season has been more impressive.

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  49. Reading should move Brown to left field so he can get some reps and replace Ibanez in the next 30 days , why is he playing RF ..Werth is not going anywhere, he will resign ? Its time to move him to the big club and try to move Ibanez , paying part of his salary., maybe back to Seattle . Heyward for the Braves is only 21 so why not have Brown try to help this offense now ?

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  50. Mike 77 …How can Aumont be honorable mention in your top 10 ? ..Based on what ? This guy has shown NOTHING , his numbers are terrible

    He needs to be sent to Lakewood and start over . I know he is 21 but its obvious he he over matched at AA

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  51. Brown’s bat is ready, but not his fielding, he has improved over the course of the season but I odn’t think he’s there yet. He takes some bad angles to fly balls making for some shaky plays. His glove is solid its just a question of him getting to the ball. I was wondering about him going to left, the fact that he has stayed in right makes me wonder about what their intentions are with Werth. A few weeks ago I would say they were gonna let him go as they probably couldn’t afford him, depending on this slump and what happens the rest of the season who knows what will happen.

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  52. My feeling is that Cosart is head and shoulders above Jason Knapp. Cosart has a much more advance feel for his breaking pitches and much better command. Cosart also has a much better delivery then Knapp, which was one of Knapps biggest concerns, which turned out to be true.

    I remember last year reading some scouts preferred Cosart over Drabek much more.

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  53. honorable mention: Aumont

    Overbeck should not even be the conversation.

    Dom Says:
    June 2, 2010 at 2:56 PM

    Mike 77 …How can Aumont be honorable mention in your top 10 ? ..Based on what ? This guy has shown NOTHING , his numbers are terrible

    He needs to be sent to Lakewood and start over . I know he is 21 but its obvious he he over matched at AA

    Dom
    what about the Overbeck comment. I hope Mike works for the Phillies . At least what would put meaning to these two
    statements

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  55. In my opinion , Overbrook needs to be sent to Reading to see if he can handle AA pitching . It makes no sense for a 23 yr old with his talent to be in Clearwater.

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  56. Dom – I think you’ll get your wish soon. He’s supposed to be headed there after the Fla League all-star game, which is in the next week or two. We all want to see if he can hit AA pitching. If Matt Rizzotti is the template, his odds would seem good for success.

    Look, Overbeck is a bit older than we would like for his present league. But he was hurt last year and has done nothing but been a stud all of this year. He’s roughly the same age that Howard was when he had his breakout year. Other prospects have similarly broken out a few years after being college draft picks (Dan Uggla is a good example). Placing him at the bottom of the top ten list shows a little faith and a little projection, but if he continues to hit and can field his position, he could end up being our third baseman in a few years, more than justifying the ranking.

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  57. But, overall, who could have predicted these seasons from Rizzotti and Overbeck? I realize that the season is far from over, but I sure as heck didn’t see this coming.

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  58. The Lord giveth (Singleton, Overbeck, Rizzotti, Cosart) and the Lord taketh away (Aumont, Gillies, etc.).

    (Lord = whatever mysterious forces move things to play out in a certain way)

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  59. Wow, you make it sound like they died. I haven’t given upon Aumont and Gillies got injured just as he was getting hot. You can’t give up on talented pitchers too soon. Gavin Floyd was an absolute dog in the minor leagues for several years and now he’s a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of time for Aumont to turn it around. My sense, in any event, is that he’s going to go back to the bulppen and when he gets it all figured out he’s going to be scary, but it could be several years from now.

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  60. @Dphrey
    I considered placing JC Ramirez higher, as you did. The reason I did not, is because he is repeating A ball. I expected a little more out of him. That is the same reason I dropped Valle out of the top 10. He is repeating that level and getting worse results so far (though he is young).
    I forgot about Colvin. He should be ahead of Villar as #10.
    I base my ranking on who I believe has more value (especially in a trade 1 for 1). Overbeck, at his age and level would not bring anything. Aumont at his age and level would still bring a return in trade, despite his performance.

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  61. Dom Says:
    June 2, 2010 at 3:59 PM

    In my opinion , Overbrook needs to be sent to Reading to see if he can handle AA pitching . It makes no sense for a 23 yr old with his talent to be in Clearwater.

    Agreed and Boz moved to AAA for the same reason.

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  62. Rizzotti starting at first base tonite rather that Stavisky, not surprising with his 2 errors and 3 slmost errors last nite

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  63. Aummont is hetting rocked, gave up a solo shot and a 2 run homer still top of the 1st on a possitive note. His speed is up 91-93 range consistent topped out at 95

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  65. Lol it was coming in, he’s not gonna be in much longer after 1 and 1/3 5 hits 2 homers and walk bases loaded… He just looked in the dug out like he doesn’t want to be out there

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  67. put this kid out of his misery and either send him down to clearwater or shut him down, no way this is doing him any good right now.

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  70. His velocity is down 87-89 now he is throwing meatballs. 2 walks bases loaded with one out

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  72. The line on him so far 3 inning picthed 7 runs all off of homers (3), 2 k’s, 3 walks 8 hits

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  73. Maybe someone should check his working papers.

    Really I thought he was further advanced. The only insult left is for yourknowwho to sign in the east.

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  75. Sounds like another terrible outing for Aumont. Seattle was smart including him in the Lee trade .
    What will it take for the Phillies to realize the kid is in over his head ?

    Send him to Clearwater or Lakewood and try to straighten him out .
    Glad to hear that Overbeck will be going to Reading soon .

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  79. Let’s talk about a Pitching positive. Colvin so far, 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 5 Ks. 7 ground balls and 1 fly ball

    Singleton 0-1 with 2 walks

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  80. Catch, you over-read big time, man. The Lord giveth the excitement and he takes away our initial joy of Gillies and Aumont. There is no statement there about future expectations. I think Aumont and Gilkies will play for Phils and contribute, just based on exceptional raw talent. It may take 2-3 years, but they have some talent and it will come around. Do you look for something to react to?

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  82. Top 30 guys THAT HAVE BEEN ON THE FIELD
    Brown
    Cosart
    May
    Singleton
    Gose
    Colvin
    Santana
    Ramirez
    Gilles
    Mathieson
    Villar
    Aumont
    De Fratus
    Shreve
    Valle
    Sanchez
    Hyatt
    James
    Castro
    Schwimer
    Worley
    Hernandez
    Overbeck
    Rizzotti
    Naylor
    Flande
    Zeid
    Hewitt
    Rodriguez
    Pettibone

    Yeah, there’s definetely a few guys in XST that would be on a real top 30 prospects list. This just how I see the guys who have played stacking up so far.

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