This post will recap the 2009 Phillies DSL season and provide an initial top prospect list. The same caveats apply as with the VSL list. This report is based on statistics and not on scouting reports primarily. In addition we can infer some things from a player’s age and whether or not they get playing time. But it is not the same thing as seeing them play and the competition they play against may not be consistently good.
The Phillies are part of a 4-team Santo Domingo North division. In 2009 they finished 3rd, 14.5 games behind the division-leading Mariners. They did not play any games outside of the division, so their record may not fully reflect how good the team is. It is also worth noting that the two teams finishing ahead of them (the Mariners and the Cardinals) were both among the older teams in the league. The Phillies were slightly younger than the average team in the league on the other hand. This means that their disappointing record is not necessarily a bad thing, as older teams in the lower minors generally win more.
The Phillies 2009 team does look like it has some potentially interesting prospects. Only one player from the team (Lisalberto Bonilla) was invited to Instructional league, but it is likely that 3-5 players will be invited to Spring Training in Florida next year. The majority of the prospects from 2009 were on the pitching side. Given that the Phillies top draft picks in 2009 were weighted towards offense other than Colvin and Way, there should be some pitching slots open at GCL next year. Four of the five top prospects on the team come from the pitching side. The best offensive prospects were generally a little older and not playing the most important defensive position.
The top 10 list for 2009 is as follows:
1. Lisalberto Bonilla (RHP/age 19) Bonilla is a relatively short (6’1″, 164) pitcher who dominated the DSL in 2009. Bonilla went 6-2 with a 1.41 ERA in his first DSL season. His other statistics were also outstanding as in 70 IP he gave up only 48 hits and 16 BB while striking out 76. As the only invite to Instructional League he gets the top prospect billing, though the 2nd and 3rd prospects on this list would also merit consideration.
2. Felix Cespedes (RHP/age 18) Cespedes was a year younger than Bonilla and much less consistent. But when he was good he was really good. The highlight of his season was a 9 inning almost perfect game where he struck out 14 and left the game in a scoreless tie after 9. For the year he had consistent bad luck, going 1-6 with a 3.12 ERA. His peripheral stats were great, however, with 83.2 IP, 69 hits, 20 BB, and a league-leading 103 Ks. At 6’3″ and 180 pounds Cespedes also has more of the classic projectible pitcher’s frame that the Phillies value. Inconsistency is the only reason he is behind Bonilla, though since he is a year younger he may very well be the better prospect.
3. Nevri Jimenez (IF/OF/age 18) Jimenez took the league by storm, hitting well over .400 in the early going. He ended up hitting .347 with a team-leading .948 OPS. He had some power (15 XBH) and some speed (12 SB). There are two strikes against him, however, that caused him to fall to 3rd on this list. First, he did not have a consistent defensive position. He played some CF and SS, though also appeared in other outfield slots and at 2B and 3B. If his defense at SS or 2B was good enough, the team would have let him play there more consistently. The second strike is that he was hurt midway through the season. Hopefully it is nothing serious and he is ready to go for Spring Training next year.
4. Daniel De La Cruz (RHP/age 18). De La Cruz put up a second solid season in the DSL, going 3-4 with a microscopic 1.03 ERA. He improved in most facets from an already decent 2008 season. He is another pitcher that is projectible at 6’3″ and 175 pounds. De La Cruz had solid peripherals (61 IP, 39 H, 18 BB, 55K) with the only shortcoming being a lower K rate than the top 2 pitchers on this list.
5. Gabriel Arias (RHP/age 19). After 3 seasons in the league, Arias finally put up some numbers to justify his 100K bonus. In 2009 he went 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA (70.2 IP, 68 H, 9 BB, 70 K). Arias still does not miss as many bats as the pitchers ranked ahead of him, but his extreme control should put him in contention for a GCL promotion next year.
6. Geancarlo Mendez (1B/2B/age 19). Mendez dominated offensively, hitting .328 with 52 BB to give him a .465 OBP and .884 OPS. He also has some speed with 20 SB. The strikes against Mendez is that he is a little older (19) and may have even less of a defensive position than Jimenez. In past years he played mostly at 1B, though he did get consistent playing time at 2B later this year. Whether he is any good at 2B is another questions.
7. Eladio Berroa (SS/age 18). Berroa appears to be the next in line as a good field/no hit shortstop like Fidel Hernandez and Lendy Castillo before him. He hit a light .257 (.650 OPS) with a little speed (9 SB) and solid defense (4.60 range factor).
8. Felix Marine (C/age 19). While a little old, Marine was the top catcher on the team and could advance based on his defense. He had a decent season with the bat, hitting .238 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, and a .726 OPS.
9. Carlos Best (RHP/age 18). Best was converted from the OF this season and held his own on the mound. For the year he went 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA (41 IP, 28 H, 23 BB, 34 K). The lack of control was his achilles heel, but in his first year on the mound it was a solid performance.
10. Dario Alvarez (LHP/age 20). Alvarez is really too old to be considered a top prospect, but sometimes LHP (like Sergio Escalona recently) take a little more time to develop. Alvarez was a solid starter in the rotation all year going 3-4 with a 2.59 ERA (83.1 IP, 80 H, 20 BB, 79K). Alvarez has improved his control greatly over the years, though as he has thrown more strikes he has been easier to hit.
On offense several more players are worth mentioning. Former $200K bonus baby Carlos Valenzuela continued to struggle at the plate (.235 avg, .637 OPS) and in the field (moved off of SS). Yeisson Morales is a big, young (age 17) kid with a decent batting eye at 3B, though he hit only .200 this season. Luis Beltre was another 17-year-old who showed some offensive potential in the OF while hitting .257. Finally, Edwin Esquea was a 17-year-old catcher that also held his own offensively (.605 OPS).
On the pitching staff the one additional name to consider is former $100K bonus pitcher Alvaro Bacil. Bacil pitched only 3 mediocre innings in 2009 and is most likely injured. But he is still young at age 18 and projectible at 6’3″ and 170 pounds. Hopefully he can get healthy and pitch closer to his limited debut in 2008 (0.90 ERA)
Later in the offseason we will keep track of various winter league performances in the Dominican, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico.
Phuture Phillies 
I’m not very familiar with the DSL – how often do guys from here become real prospects for us?
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You know, that is a pretty good list. Don’t think I’d move anybody out of the top 10 for somebody else. I say the prospects here would start off with the 5 starting pitchers. Of the 6 pitchers selected including Best , they were the Innings pitched leaders on the team. Two players I think might go into the bubbling under the top 10 list, or worth a mention , might be OF-IF Jorge Castillo, and 1B-C-3B Rafael DeLaCruz. Castillo got alot of AB’s once he started to play, and has played the Middle Infield positions before becoming a regular in LF. Rafael DeLaCruz hit almost nothing for the season, but he was one of the few organizational players listed as a super utility player by Baseball Reference, he mostly plays the important positions of C-3B-1B, he is of the bigger size, and only 7 months older than Yeisson Morales.
Considering, I believe, it is best to bring a starting line-up to serve as a skeleton crew for GCL in Extended Spring Training, I advocate bringing the following players from DSL to EST. There may also be some Venezuelan players brought.
The 5 Dominican starters plus Carlos Best. 2B-Geancarlo Mendez, SS-Eladio Berroa, one of the Catchers -Felix Marine, and the OF’s Nevri Jimenez, CF, Jorge Castillo LF, and Luis Beltre RF.
That’s 12 brought to add to a couple from Venezuela to give about half the team for next season’s GCL squad to compete with the USHS players they select in the June Draft.
The 5
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Pete, Bastardo, Escalona and Ruiz (Panama) came from South American signings. They are on the current Phils roster. There are number of good prospects in the minor leagues today. Some that I’m high on are (in no particular order): Flande, Concepcion, Galvis, Edgar Garcia, L. Castro and of course Domingo Santana, who had an exceptional year in the GCL @ 16 – 17 years old. The Phils have been spending more money down there in recent years. Some of the guys Andy mentions above and in his VSL write-up earlier are the product of that.
If the Phils can get a player or two a year who moves through the organization and at least reaches the “cup of coffee” level, with an occasional regular, I’m happy. Some of these guys grow up playing baseball every waking moment and that can make them pretty good players. They also can push some of our draftees to a higher level of play.
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I don’t think this year’s DSL/VSL crew is quite as good as those in past years. There is no way we bring as many as 12 over next year. If I had to guess, the most likely to be at GCL would be the following:
Offense: Jimenez, Mendez definite. Berroa, Valenzuela (to justify his cost) maybe. Marine a small chance
Pitching: Bonilla, Cespedes, Arias definite. Alvarez 50-50. Bacil 50-50. Best a slight chance.
Guys like Beltre are much less likely because he is still young and really not better than 8 other OF that will already be over there. As for pitcher, it varies depending on our draft. We only took a couple this year in Sosa and Izturriaga. We already know Lino Martinez will be there. While there may not be any other VSL pitchers who merit the promotion, I still think the limit it to 3 or 4 DSL pitchers total. Guys like Alvarez have been given lots of chances and may not be quite good enough.
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Maybe my memory isn’t too hot but this seems like the best DSL class I can recall. Have we ever had an 18 year old .950 OPS guy in the DSL before (Jimenez)? The best batting prospect I can recall out of the DSL Phillies is Leandro Castro and I don’t think he was at .950 (he was 18 as well in 2007). Bonilla’s numbers are comparable to any DSL Phillies pitching prospect that I can recall as well. Throw in Cespedes and De La Cruz and I think this class is ahead.
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Bonilla’s numbers are very good. A little like Ballestas in his last year in the VSL. We have had others in the same range. Elizardo Ramirez was at least as dominant. Antonio Bastardo only threw 38 IP in his one DSL year (age 19 year) but he gave up only 22 hits and had 63 Ks.
The one thing hard to figure out is their level of competition. We know the two leading teams in their division were a little older. It is harder to know if they are any good.
This DSL team is certainly top-heavy with the top 5 of 6 prospects. Beyond that it drops very quickly into non-prospects. If that is true, however, it is all we can hope for to produce a few legit prospects off any DSL team knowing that the Domingo Santana prospects never even play for the team.
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As for offense, Jimenez with a 900+ OPS is impressive. We should remember that it is a small sample because he missed the last half of the year. The offense does remind me of the year that Trino Aguilar put together as a 17-year-old in the VSL in 2002. He started out hitting close to .400 in the first 30 games, though tailed to around .320 by the end of the year.
Aguilar is still kicking around in the Independent leagues after the Phillies traded him after one mediocre GCL season. For all who question the merits of having a productive Latin American system, Aguilar has actually helped the Phillies major league team. He was traded to the Padres for Clay Condrey before the 2004 season.
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Castro had an OPS of about .780 in 2007. Of the guys young enough to be prospects that season, Sebastian Valle was the OPS leader at about .800. Jiminez’s OPS is impressive. It would be better if he had a positon.
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For reference. Of last offseason’s Top 30 prospects, one of them had DSL experience (Bastardo). Another (Escalona) had VSL experience.
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thanks, Bellman
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RE: Of last offseason’s Top 30 prospects, one of them had DSL experience (Bastardo). Another (Escalona) had VSL experience.
Also on last year’s top 30 prospects were Carlos Carrasco, Freddy Galvis, and Edgar Garcia who all skipped straight to the U.S. without playing in the VSL or DSL (as Domingo Santana did this year). Plus Sebastian Valle played in the DSL 1 year. I would also think that several more DSL/VSL graduates might make this year’s top 30: Yohan Flande, Jonathan Villar, maybe Leandro Castro and a couple others are close (Lebron, Hernandez, Lugo).
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Any thoughts on the just-announced purge of DR staff by Amaro?
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I have no idea on the staff purge. The main guy let go is Artiaga and probably a couple of his people. I wonder if there are some violations we have not heard anything about. A couple of DSL Phillies did test positive earlier this year. There is also the mystery of Edgar Garcia’s visa (age?) and the lack of development of Carlos Valenzuela. Valezuela could be the rare major signing who does not even make it over to GCL.
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Thanks for the writeup, Cespedes is the guy out of the group I am most encouraged by with the Ks and good size
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