With the season reaching its final three weeks, Lehigh Valley went through another mediocre week going 3-4, and have watched their chances for a playoff berth continue to dwindle with their 57-61 record. They are 9.5 games behind dvision leading Scranton, and are 8.5 games out of a wild card spot. Taking this weeks look at ‘Pigs among league leaders, Andy Tracy is 4th in homers (19), 3rd in RBI’s (72), and 2nd in walks (54), Mike Cervenak is 9th in RBI’s (59), Rich Thompson is 9th in stolen bases (20). On the mound, Drew Carpenter is 4th in wins (9), 5th in ERA (2.86), 7th in IP(126) and 6th in homers allowed (14).
8/10/09–Lehigh Valley opened a series against Louisville on Monday with a 4-3 loss at home, facing Micah Owings, who was completing a rehab assignment for the Reds AAA affiliate. Lehigh Valley opened the scoring on a solo homer by Miguel Cairo in the 3rd inning. Louisville bounced back with a single run in the 4th (on a strikeout/wild pitch) and a three spot in the 5th on a long home run by Kevin Barker. Andrew Carpenter pitched reasonably well, although lost his bid to become Lehigh Valley’s first 10 game winner, going 7 innings on a very warm evening, giving up 4 runs on 9 hits. He walked one and struck out 7 and left trailing 4-1. Lehigh Valley cut the lead to 4-3 in the 7th inning on an RBI double by Miguel Cairo followed by an RBI single by David Newhan. That, however, was all the ‘Pigs could muster, losing by a run. Miguel Cairo was 3-4 with 2 runs, 2b, hr, and 2 RBI’s. Both Michael Taylor and David Newhan also had 2 hits for the ‘Pigs.
8/11/09–Another night where the lack of timely offense was the ‘Pigs undoing in their 2-1 loss to Louisville on Tuesday evening. Lehigh Valley scored first on a Terry Tiffee RBI single in the 2nd inning, but single runs by Louisville in the 3rd and 7th were all the Bats needed to hang on for the victory. Brian Mazone (1-5) started and gave a Moyeresque workmanlike effort, going 6.2 innings giving up 2 runs on 11 hits. Most of Mazone’s night was spent pitching out of trouble. John Mayberry was the lone ‘Pig notable offensively going 2-3 with a run scored and a stolen base (5).
8/12/09–A wild night at Coca Cola Park that concluded with a Miguel Cairo 10th inning RBI single that gave Lehigh Valley the 10-9 extra inning win against Louisville. The big story of the night was Michael Taylor, who became the first player in Lehigh Valley history to hit for the cycle, including a game tying homer in the 9th. Taylor went 5-5 with his 4th AAA homer and 4 RBI’s. In a game in which the lead see sawed throughout, Gustavo Chacin started and went 4.1 innings, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits. He walked 3 and struck out 4. Cedric Bowers (4-2) got the win in relief for the ‘Pigs. In addition to Taylor’s big night, Jason Ellison was 2-5 with 2r, rbi and 2 SB’s, Miguel Cairo was 2-5 with 3 RBI’s, and JJ Furmaniak was 2-4 with 2 runs scored.
8/13/09–In the finale of their 4 game series against Louisville, the ‘Pigs lost 12-8 with a full bullpen implosion led by the recently recalled Joe Bisenius. Lehigh Valley opened the scoring in the 2nd on an RBI single by Andy Tracy. Louisville answered with a four spot in the fifth off of ‘Pigs starter Joe Savery, making his 3rd AAA start. Savery went 5.2 innings, giving up 6 runs (4 earned) With Louisville up 4-1, a Andy Tracy grand slam allowed Lehigh Valley to take a 5-4 lead and the ‘Pigs added two more runs in the 5th on a Miguel Cairo RBI single and a John Mayberry sac fly. It was at this point where the wheels totally fell off for the ‘Pigs and their bullpen as Louisville scored 3 in the 6th, 4 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th for the 12-8 margin of victory. Bisenius (0-1) took the loss, giving up 4 runs on 6 hits in 1.1 innings of work. Jason Ellison was 4-5 with 2 runs and a stolen base (12), while both Andy Tracy and Terry Tiffee had two hits apiece.
‘Pigs Prospects–Michael Taylor– A big week for Taylor as he went 10-28 (.357), including 3 multi hit games, 4 extra base hits and 4 RBI’s. For Lehigh Valley he is at .275/.361/.471 with 4 HR and 15 RBI in his 102 AB’s. Notably, he had two incredible OF assists as well in the same inning. While weeks like this past week certainly cant be expected as the norm, it is a good indication of exactly what Taylor is capable of, which is carrying a team with his bat, glove and leadership. Taylor is one homer away from a 20/20 season between Reading/Lehigh Valley.
John Mayberry, Jr.–Regular at bats have helped Mayberry get back on the right track with a 7-26 (.269)week. He stole a base and made a couple of outstanding plays in RF as well. On the year, Mayberry stands at .257/.335/.439 with 8 HR 33 RBI and 6 SB. He has not gotten his power stroke back since his return from Philly (he hasn’t homered in over 100 at bats) and that is something that is critical for his long term success.He does continue to hit well (.275) with RISP.
Andrew Carpenter–A gutty perforamnce in stifling heat for Carpenter on Monday when he went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs, on really one bad pitch that resulted in a three run homer. The 4th run was scored on a strikeout/wild pitch. On the year, Carpenter is at 9-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 20 starts. In his 126 IP, he has walked 36 and struck out 101, with a GO/AO of 0.80. The opposition is hitting .249 off of him, .248 with RISP.
Joe Savery–Two starts for Savery this week, going 5 innings and giving up 2 runs in Game One and 5.2 innings, giving up 4 runs in Game Two. For the week his totals were 10.2 IP, 12H, 6 ER, 8 BB and 10K. Savery has not impressed me very much so far, other than his ability to get out of trouble. His fastball has been consistently below 90 and he has struggled with his command walking 13 in his 16.2 innings in AAA. While all the stats fall on the negative side of the slope, the most important stat, wins, continue to come Savery’s way as he improved to 2-0 in AAA, and now has 14 wins on the year between Reading and Lehigh Valley.
Notes: SS Miguel Cairo and Manager Dave Huppert were both ejected from Tuesday evenings game for srguing balls/strikes.
LF Michael Taylor threw out 2 runners in the same inning during the game Tuesday night. Both throws were very impressive, once gunning down a runner at second and then throwing out another runner trying to score to end the inning.
Catcher Paul Hoover is throwing out runners at a 17% rate, a rate that must be improved upon.
Probable starters for the weekend: Rodrigo Lopez on Friday, Andrew Carpenter on Saturday and Kyle Kendrick on Sunday.
Andy Tracy’s grand slam on Thursday was his 250th minor league homer.
Transactions: Pitchers Kyle Kendrick and Rodrigo Lopez were both sent back down to AAA Lehigh Valley after the activation of Chad Durbin and Pedro Martinez from the DL by the Phillies. On this trip up to Philly, Kendrick made three apperances without giving up a run in 3.1 innings. After faring well as a starter, Rodrigo Lopez struggled in the bullpen in Philly, leaving the Phils with a 3-1 record and a 5.70 ERA in 7 games (5 starts). Lopez will be starting for Lehigh Valley on Friday against Buffalo, the Mets affiliate. Making room on the roster for Kendrick and Lopez, relief pitcher Pat Overholt was sent back to (AA) Reading and Brian Mazone was placed on the DL with “turf toe” . Overholt was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his 9 appearances with Lehigh Valley, including a WHIP of 1.64.
Right handed reliever Joe Bisenius was recalled for (A) Clearwater by Lehigh Valley. Bisenius, 26, struggled mightily for Reading back in April before an extended trip on the DL with “turf toe”. Since his activation from the DL in the beginning of August, Bisenius has made three scoreless appearances for the Threshers. Bisenius remains a member of the Phils 40 man roster. To make room on the ‘Pigs roster, reliever Alex Concepcion, 24, was sent back down to Reading. Concepcion was 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and a save in 6 games, all in relief for the ‘Pigs.
Phuture Phillies 
Bisenius’s days on the 40-man roster will soon be over. Does anyone who follows this site think that he will become an effective major league player or even still be playing professional ball 3 years from now? He’s wasting a slot that should go to someone else.
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On Savery . . . I watched him pitch last week and my only thought was “why is there a first baseman pitching in this game?” He does not look like a pitcher – he really looks like what was in a former life, a corner infielder.
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I couldn’t agree more on both of Catch’s points.
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I wonder if Carpenter will be given a shot at the ML rotation next year?
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Only going to be a possibility of one opening on the ML rotation next year.
Lee
Hamels
Blanton (last year before he is eligible for FA)
Happ
Moyer is getting paid either way, I’d guess that Moyer is given every chance to win the job out of camp and would have to hang it up or get shelled in Florida to not be the 5th starter at the beginning of the year. June 1 is a another story
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I just have the feeling this year was the year to trade Savery with his value being better. I just don’t see him ever making it to the majors as a pitcher.
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I am not as down on Savery as everyone else (even though I think he looks more like a first baseman than a pitcher, and he does). He’ll make it to the majors and may stay a while, but it might not be with the Phillies.
On Moyer, what will happen with him is undecided. If they cannot commit to put him in the rotation, they will try to do their best to let him hook on with someone else. There is so much respect for him that they will go out of their way to treat him right and that’s as it should be.
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***While all the stats fall on the negative side of the slope, the most important stat, wins, continue to come Savery’s way as he improved to 2-0 in AAA, and now has 14 wins on the year between Reading and Lehigh Valley.***
Gregg – while i greatly appreciate all of the work that you do for free, i have to challenge you on this quote. we have more than covered on this blog that wins is a completely irrelevant stat for minor leaguers. there is no correlation between minor league wins and mlb success. far more relevant are his peripherals, which continue to be terrible.
to pitch in the big leagues you have to have:
1. great control
2. ability to change speeds and angles within the strike zone
3. have high quality stuff (velocity or breaking or both)
savery doesn’t have any of those three and he is not a major league pitcher.
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PP Fan–
I dont think we disagree at all actually. I have seen both of Savery’s starts and have been extremely unimpressed. I think their can’t be much doubt that the most important stat for a team is wins and losses (obviously that is different in the minors where player development is the key). The point I was trying to make, maybe inartfully was that both Reading and Lehigh Valley winning when Savery pitches flies in the face of the logic of his stats.
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What is most likely to happen with Drabek next year? Tons of possibilities
– Start the season in AA, move quickly to AAA (as a starter)
– Start in AAA (as a starter), mid year call up
– Start the season in AA, move quickly to AAA (as a reliever)
– Start in AAA (as a reliever), mid year call up
– Starter in MLB from Day 1
– Reliever in MLB from Day 1
I’d like to see him start in AAA and then transtion to the pen once confidence about the fifth starter is established. Mid year call up to relieve
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fair enough
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I have always rooted for Savery so I can’t give up on him yet, he was a first round pick a few years ago. Since we have the “stanford swing” can we make a name up for rice pitchers like “rice arm destroyers” but more clever. I hope the light goes on for him and becomes a quality arm we could use up with the big club eventually or be a trade chip. I don’t know why Bisenius is even in the organization, does he have pictures of rube? He hasn’t been a quality arm for at least 2 years imo.
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The Phils patience with Bisenius and Overholt is amazing. Both have been in the farm system for several years past their expected usefulness at any level in the minors let alone with the big club.
I guess the FO thinks that Carpenter would be useful in an off-season trade…catcher? Not quite ready 3rd baseman? Likely since no real call-up, with Lopez instead.
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On Savery: before giving up on this guy, I’d like to see him have a superior training program over the off-season. He may need this time to additionally strengthen his arm, given his past surgery.
Next season should give the up or down on him. IF he gets his arm strength back (IMO it is not back to its appropriate level yet), he could be the pitcher they expected when he was drafted. One more season.
Drabek has hit the wall of fatigue, IMO. Going easy on him during the remainder of this season is the way to go. Next season, after a mild winter training program, he’d be eligible for AAA LV, with a possible call-up (if needed) late in the season. For now have him ease through the rest of ’09s season.
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The draft is a tool to create ownership of employment and nothing else. It serves more as entertainment then it ever has a chance of creating competitive balance. It proves itself a hit or miss proposition with regards to eventual outcome of talent analysis year in and year out so it certainly is not the means of creating good teams across the board. It disallows a person from freely engaging in presenting oneself for employment to all groups in the industry.
College football is as big a business as any in professional sport yet there doesn’t seem to be any problem with fan following or a rotation of sumpremecy from league to league.
The draft is a farce.
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Sorry, wrong forum
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You can tell by the way Bisenius moves around he’s just there to absorb innings. They still need to field what, six teams in the U.S.? That’s something like 50 IP/night.
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When Savery was a top 5 prospect, he was a power pitcher. He’s clearly not that anymore. I’ve been calling for his move to 1st since they drafted him, but if he could regain his former velocity, then sure, he should be a starting pitcher and could even be a #2 or #3. If he cannot, he’s a #5 at best and should be playing 1st base. He never had enough power to be an elite 1st baseman but made enough contact to possibly play everyday in the major leagues.
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Send Savery to the same place Madson went to in Arizona with Tom Gordon and hopefully he can strengthen all those stabilizers.
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As much as there is to be disappointed with Savery’s performance, we have to remember how far he’s come since just last year. If, two years ago when he was drafted, you were told that he’d be in AAA in August of 2009, that’s exactly what you would have expected. I think there’s a chance he is still going to improve and may improve a lot. I have nothing concrete to base this on, it’s just a hunch.
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Even is Savery never “improves” he still provides value in prospective trades. That said, I think he will suprise you in the end…where did we think Happ was 24 months ago?
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i believe taylor was 3-5 last night. he,s really on fire now.
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Now for some real minor league news. James Gosewisch was promoted from Reading to Allentown. Started first game there. Looks like Gosewisch might be the September call-up at catcher, and perhaps replace the offseason UFA Paul Bako on next season’s roster.
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ais i never particulatly thought savery would make it. when he was piling up wins at reading i thought maybe i was wrong, but it seems my impressions of him going back to rice maybe right. i know happ was never highly regarded but there is no comparison between him and savery at their aaa levels. you could at least see happ was a pitcher. with savery i,ve just never seen it. maybe i,m wrong but imo he,s much more value packageing for an infield prospect.
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Does anyone think Mayberry isn’t a prospect anymore? It seems to me he’s kinda stalled out at AAA. Golson isn’t really doing anything either this year, so no big loss, but it’s disappointing that he hasn’t taken his game to the next level this year.
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Like I said before the season, Mayberry’s OBP the previous two years were .311 and .317. People latched on to a split in a small sample in a hitters’ league, but realistically he was never that good to begin with.
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ill be at Lakewood’s game tomorrow in Charleston
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That dude- Happ has a career K/9 in the minors of like 10. savery’s is 6.8, and its gone down every year since he was drafted. he also walks 4/9. those are 2 bad stats for any pitcher who hopes to make it out of the minors some day.
and gregg, a team winning, no matter the context, is just a terrible stat to associate with a pitcher. It is absolutetly terrible. I don’t care how often a team wins if the pitcher sucks and gets lucky.
one more thing- i know that its a small sample size (16 innings) but in AAA Savery has walked 12 and struck out 10.
He doesn’t have good control, or good enough stuff to stsike guys out.
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Okay, first, I agree that Happ had many “markers” (strikeout per nine innings, etc. . . ) suggesting he could be a very good pitcher. In fact, when many on this site were wondering whether he’d ever be an effective major league pitcher, immediately after seeing him for the first time (2007 against the Mets), on this site, I compared him to a young Jerry Koosman and, this year anyway, he’s looked like, well, a young Jerry Koosman (a hell of a pitcher for you really young folks, won about 220 games in the majors and would have been the ace of the Mets staff in many years but for some guy named Seaver).
All of that having been said, Savery has made serious progress this year and has steadily climbed through the minors in not a terribly long amount of time – again, in terms of the level of competition, he’s exactly where one would have liked him to be right now when he was drafted (AAA that is). I am not saying he’s lived up to the billing. Clearly, he hasn’t. Right now, he projects, at best, as a bottom of the rotation guy and they were hoping he’d be a 2 or a 3. That having been said, it has been suggested that he is still, at some level recovering from the surgery and it’s possible that there’s still some extra MPH in that arm. If true, that’s not a trivial issue. Right now, by most reports, he’s in the 88-91 MPH range. If he increased by a small degree to a 89-93 MPH, he could still become one hell of a pitcher.
Finally, we all forget what a terrible disappointment JA Happ was in 2007. We hoped he’d be in the major league rotation by August (and we needed him) and he got smacked around all year in AAA and in his one major league start. Now, admittedly, the K per inning ratio was still positive, but he was anything but a world beater that year.
So, let’s give Joe Savery another year or so to see what he’s got in the tank. He’s clearly a very powerfully built and capable athlete. That bodes well for his development.
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I was listenting to Mitch Williams about velocity He stated you can get away with 88-90 if you can located it in the four zones. high outside corner and etc. nothing fat, He mention that is why happ is successful, and if he ever learn to master his secondary pitches , he would be really good. He said Lee is like Happ in that he throws a lot of fastballs. maybe Salvery can be that kind of pitchers, My concern with him beside injury is walks, So if he can located better maybe we have another Happ.
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I think Savery is still learing how to pitch. I wonder how much is comman or him trying to paint the 4 corners.
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barnes 2-3 with a hr. his 4th. anyone know with any certainty who our top minor league closer is. this doesnt pertain to the phils situation, just curious.
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