Re-racking the Top 15

Now that we’ve lost 4 of our theoretical Top 15, I thought it would be a fun exercise to ponder what is left (assuming nothing else in the works) and look ahead to this winter. This is in no way set in stone, this is just an off the top of my head thought process based on the guys remaining and is subject to change on a whim.

Check below…

01. Kyle Drabek, RHP – Potential #1, handling AA well, should be ready to help the big club in the 2nd half of 2010. Innings need to be managed from here on out, but he’s been awesome.
02. Dominic Brown, OF – Handling the pitcher friendly FSL, doesn’t appear that he’s missed a beat coming back from the injury, and still showing power.
03. Michael Taylor, OF – The third head of the three headed monster at the top, just continues to put up numbers, and should give the Phillies some tough decisions to make at this time next year.
04. Travis D’Arnaud, C – Gets tougher here, but after a slow start he’s rebounded nicely. Hitting for power at a young age in full season ball, I’m fine with leaving him here right now.
05. Trevor May, RHP – My bias towards him is well documented, but I’m very impressed so far. This is an aggressive ranking, but I’m going with it here for now until I have more time to really parse out everyone’s numbers.
06. Anthony Gose, OF – His bat is going to be the last tool to come, but he’s one of the fastest players in the minors, and on top of his speed on the base paths, looks to be a ++ defensive outfielder.
07. Domingo Santana, OF – Possibly aggressive here as well, but he doesn’t turn 17 until a few days from now, and he has a .913 OPS in the GCL. His K rate is off the charts high, but he also has 9 BB and 9 of his 15 hits have gone for extra bases. Again, he’s 16 getting ready to turn 17. Big things are possible here.
08. Joe Savery, LHP – Savery is still a work in progress. Give him credit for learning how to dig in on the mound and work his way out of trouble, but the peripherals are still concerning. Gets credit for being in AA
09. Vance Worley, RHP – It appears he’s hit a wall, which isn’t surprising considering its his first full pro season and he was jumped all the way to AA. Reading is a good hitter’s park, mistakes will be punished at AA. You could flip him with Savery here and I wouldn’t argue.
10. Antonio Bastardo, LHP – Impressive flashes in the big leagues, but another arm injury a year after getting shut down with a similar injury is not a good sign. Future is probably in the pen if he can stay healthy.
11. Sebastian Valle, C – Its not a crime to struggle as an 18 year old in A ball, he just turned 19 last week and has an OPS over 1.000 in the NYPL, a dominant pitcher’s league. He becomes our 2nd best C prospect with Marson moving on.
12. Zach Collier, OF – Disappointing 2009 to be sure, but the tools are still legit, and he’s got time on his side.
13. Jon Pettibone, RHP – 4 great starts, 3 bad starts, kind of what you’d expect from a raw high school product still growing into his lanky frame (6’5, 200), but he’s got tons of projection, he’s averaged a K per inning, and is getting almost 2 groundballs for every flyball. I might actually bump him up a few spots after I see how he finishes and I get a scouting report on him.
14. Yohan Flande, LHP – He went from relative obscurity to the Futures Game, and while he’s struggling at Reading, I think he deserves some credit for the solid numbers at Clearwater, even if he was way too old for that level.
15. John Singleton, 1B – Maybe? This spot could go to about 10 different guys, but I’ll use it to point out that Singleton has hits in his first 6 pro games, is batting .529 in 17 AB, and has 4 BB against 2 K. If Colvin, Stewart or Susac, sign, they could slot in here.

As I said, this is an off the top of my head list. I’m still waiting for news on Shreve and Cosart, and there are a bunch of other guys I’m watching, including Stutes, Cisco, Schwimer, De Fratus and others.

95 thoughts on “Re-racking the Top 15

  1. Good stuff. Obviously there were spots vacated by the quartet just dealt, but there have been a number of breakout campaigns (Gose, May, Santana) that might have shaken up the Top 15 regardless.

    And I was waiting for someone to say something about Singleton. Small sample size warning and all that, but for a guy whose major knock was struggling to make contact, a 4:2 BB:K for a 17-year old is impressive. Now if he can just flash some of that raw power we’ve heard so much about, we could really be onto something.

  2. So many names not even mentioned and it’s still a great list. I’m not close to ready to counting out Sampson and Garcia, and it’s still clear that our organizational strength is pitching. That’s with the losses of Carrasco and Knapp. There’s a ton of guys in the lower levels that could climb pretty quickly. I’m excited for the next wave to come in.

  3. Typo on the topic title (should be ranking presumably). Also, my top 4 because I feel that everybody past them gets a little blurry:

    1. Brown – The fact that he can play CF really separates him IMO. Could be the best overall CF in baseball in a few years.
    2. Drabek – Potential ace, and it looks like even his worst case scenario is still a middle of the rotation arm. Very impressive this year.
    3. Taylor – Just a tick below the other two, but he’s done nothing but produce at every level. Too bad he’s really, really blocked.
    4. Gose – Has many red flags (a lefty who’s crushing lefties, although it’s always easier to learn how to hit the opposite hand, bad K:BB rate, etc.), but also many green flags (doesn’t turn 19 for 10 more days, which makes his avg/obp/slg way more acceptable, best speed in baseball, super CF range with a sick arm). A personal favorite of mine

  4. I’m inferring that Edgar Garcia had a visa problem and no other problems . With that in mind he merits consideration based on past performance , high ceiling and relative youth.

  5. i know that i am not the only one who feels compelled to make Schwimer #1 on my list. totally justified i am sure.

    but this new ranking really does show how much depth we depleted from the system in one trade. outside of the top 3 guys, there is really no one else you feel has a high probability of success (except bastardo). the rest are really a bunch of lottery tickets. i mean our #4 prospect is an 18 year old catcher in low A ball who is hitting .250. kinda says a lot.

    but no complaints from me. i love the Lee deal.

  6. Gotta like it, hopefully Cosart and Shreve get some innings this year. The injury to Cosart can’t be good if he hasn’t thrown once yet, hopefully it’s not an elbow or labrum. The system has a lot of potential risers in it’s system still and the fact that Santana is only 16 years old is really incomprehensible and exciting.

  7. The Phils prospects have become collectively very young. also zero ss 2b and 3b certainly something for them to work on

  8. I realize the farm system seems depleted but there remain some high ceiling prospects that get enquired about by other teams.(Galvis, Correa) and of course there is Hewitt who doesn’t lack for tools.

  9. I can’t argue with that, although I would have Hewitt and Stutes on there or close to it.

  10. Imagine how sad it would be if our Top 4 were Carrasco, Donald and Marson. Like last year all over again

  11. the new top 10:
    drabek
    taylor
    brown
    d’arnaud
    gose
    may
    valle
    bastardo
    singleton
    carpenter
    worley
    stutes
    hewitt
    savery
    santana
    just missed are shreve, cosart, dugan, way pettibone and colvin(wishful)

  12. I would put Colvin in my top 10 if he signs.

    I like the May ranking. Maybe a little high right now, but there really isn’t anyone who deserves it more. I would love to see an updated scouting report from a scout. His numbers are really good, but I’m curious to see his repertoire.

  13. add collier to just missed! He would have been in my top 10 3 months ago; still 18 though, big upside! We knew he was raw, just loked so good last year and early this year. hopefully just needs to make adjustments.

  14. I was trying to find a way to justify putting Galvis in the top 15 and I couldn’t…

  15. Juilio Rodriguez from last year’s draft is an interesting name. 37Ks in 29 innings. Doesn’t turn 19 until the end of August.

    Does Mayberry still qualify?

  16. is it just me or did our system look so much deeper 3 weeks ago? beyond losing 4 top 10’s a few major players have had huge drop-offs in the past few weeks. flande, stutes, savery, worley bastardo(injury)and we still had hope that collier would turn it around in Wmsport. our new top 10 could have been something like this if the trade was made a few weeks ago:
    drabek
    taylor
    brown
    worley
    bastardo
    savery
    flande
    d’arnaud
    stutes
    gose

  17. Except for the potential of Knapp, we didnt lose that much. Donal and carasco werent needed on the big club and marson was a hitter, we need a catcher first hitter second

  18. Been cautious with cosart is all he makes his debut tomorrow from what I hear. Wish I could be there tomorrow instead o last week

  19. I agree PP. The system still looks damn good. we lost good players but we only lost guys who are blocked at the major league level. Overall the system looks and is weaker, but is not effected in any tangible way as to how it will effect the MLB club.

    Donald wasn’t going to play here. He is a solid MLB Second baseman and 2B is locked up in Philly. His value at other positions drops.

    Carlos Carrasco is Vicente Padilla with a little less crazy knucklehead in him but also a little less “cajones”

    Knapp wasn’t really blocked but he is so far off that he wasn’t on the real radar yet. Kid could be real good or end up out of baseball, no one knows until they have 2 or 3 years behind them.

    Marson wasn’t really blocked but wasn’t really better overall than what Ruiz is doing overall. Plus he was just a gap filler until D’Arnaud comes along.

    Overall we are still overstocked in the OF, are set up well at catcher for years to come, have a good mix of pitchers, and we are still thin on infield prospects. Just like before the trade.

    I am still amazed by this trade a day later.

  20. I was so excited that we pulled off this trade so i wasn’t complaining; this was pure genious! I was only noticing that beyond the 4 players we lost we had a few key guys come back to reality ie savery, worley etc. If we lost those guys 3 weeks ago our system would have looked better than it does today. That being said it may still be a top 10 especially if we sign colvin and at least one other and shreve, cosart show a little something at the end here.

  21. this stuff is great…its why I read this site, though I don’t post that much…
    Its exciting to see the prospects…probably a bit of a lukewarm feeling, because it seems like alot of the exciting guys (Drabek excepted of course)are still a few years away, but its still very cool! My fav to keep an eye on is Santana-I’m mean born in ’92, come on, that has to make you feel old!

  22. I love the Lee trade, but I’d have to respectfully disagree with PP that our system is “pretty damn good”. It’s very top heavy. After the big 3, there’s an enormous dropoff.

    Beyond the big 3, we’re almost entirely devoid of quality prospects above Lakewood. The good news is we don’t need much help from the system for the next few years. We got a great asset in Lee from our system, but let’s not pretend that this is even a top 10 system anymore.

  23. And I’ll take the other side of that.

    3 blue chip prospects are more valuable than 7 or 8 second/third tier prospects.

    A top heavy system is favorable for me, because the three blue chip guys are at A+, AA and AAA, and will be ready to contribute in 1-2 years. The group of guys who you aren’t as high on now are at A ball and the shortseason leagues, but in 2 seasons could be in the same position as Drabek, Brown and Taylor now.

    And our system right now doesn’t really contain much from the 2009 draft. I fully expect there will be at least 1 big money signing at the 8/17 deadline, and I wouldn’t be shocked if two of Colvin, Stewart, Susac are signed. I have no inside info on any of those guys, but just call it a hunch. Even without any of those guys, our system is still probably a Top 10 system.

  24. Did you consider Mr Cespedes at all, or do you need to see him actually suit up in the GCL first?

    And who do you have ranked higher between Rosenberg and Schwimer at the moment? Considering only on-field performance, and not revoluationary statistical inventions

  25. I like that we have some intriguing guys currently injured/just recovering so far in Garcia/Mathieson/Cosart/Shevre. The latter two particularly we could see climbing charts next year if things break right

  26. I think that Steve Susdorf deserved to be at least somewhere on the top 15. I know that he was not really considered a true prospect when first drafted, but anybody deserves some recognition if he hits .400 in over 100 at-bats in the pitcher-friendly FSL.

  27. Right now from 5-25 is a huge jumble in my mind.

    With Edgar Garcia just showing back up, Shreve & Cozart still haven’t played an inning for us. Still some signings from this years draft.

    At the end of the year I think we’ll have a little more clearer idea at least. I’d probably have Tim Kennelly in the 10-15 range.

  28. I am a little amazed that Susdorf did not merit a sniff of the top 15. What does a guy need to do? Let’s bump him to AA where he is age appropriate to see if he is legit. Why wait?
    What is the status of the 2b, Garcia, at Lakewood? Is he a prospect? He appears to be having a decent season.
    I also agree the list looks less daunting now, but you have prospects for 2 reasons that we all know. The route taken yesterday made our big club look pretty darned good. Not one of those guys projected to influence this team in the near future in lieu of a big injury. Let’s just pray that does not happen b/c we have zero middle infielders or catchers who could contribute now if need be.

  29. PP – Definitely agree that 3 blue chips > 7 or 8 second tier guys. Really liked that Amaro decided to go that route instead of trading for Halladay. I think your analysis of the trade is spot on. It’s a tremendous credit to the system that we got last year’s Cy Young from a superior league without giving up our top 3.

    My point was we probably traded prospects 4 through 7 to get Lee. Any system going to take a sizeable step back after that. A couple of the “lottery tickets” (Santana, Gose, Pettibone, etc…) might pay off, but at the moment our #4 propect is a 20 Y/O catcher with a .727 OPS in the Sally League.

  30. Also forgot to mention I think Matt Way probably could sneak into the top 15, he’s dominated so far.

  31. how the hell has Rosenberg not been called up, he has completely dominant against the SAL and is too old to be there anyways, test the man a little

  32. The nice thing about the system in the last few years is that guys have really taken steps forward during the course of a season. Last year say Donald, Carrasco and Marson all do so. This year sees Taylor, Brown and Drabek. Who will be those guys next year? That is the question. I may not have sufficient knowledge of this year’s class, but unless we sign Susak, Stewart or Colvin, it appears to be very thin. I don’t know if there is a big impact guy in the class. Last year’s class just oozes with depth and potential.

  33. Just look at a guy like Collier. He’s had a disappointing season. But if he repeats Lakewood next year and everything clicks, then you’re looking at him like we looked at Brown heading into 2009, and Brown of course took off this season.

    And then you have Hewitt. And Gose. When you draft guys with big tools, they have a chance to flop, and on the other side, they have a chance to really take off. And if Shreve and Cosart come back at the end of this year and show they are healthy, both are big breakout candidates for 2010.

  34. PP..What about Defratus. 2 great recent outings as a starter. I think Worley is a little high as I like Stutes and Cisco a little more then him and I am not sold on Santana, Flande and Collier.
    I also agree with “B” regarding Way.

  35. I think its me, If our system is top 10, and people are using cosart who never pitched yet colvin who is a 18 high school kid who never thrown one inning of minor league ball, bastardo, a loogy at best, Salvery another loogy or 5 th starter at best, flande? Singleton you got to be kidding, remember d’Arby myers ? and my favorite Santana a strikeout machine who could be 16 or 26 no one really knows,

  36. way is someone who has stood out to me as well, but is he just a coll. guy who should be dominating this level? i would be thrilled if hw moved up to lakewood and didn’t miss a beat. I think he would even be slightly old for lakewood @ 21. If he starts in clearwater next year on the fast track like stutes and worley he will be more age appropriate. PP do you know more about his potential? By the way i really enjoy when your posting and commenting. Wish it was even a little bit more.

  37. mikemike the experts seem to weigh the teams that are top heavy more favorably then the ones with a bunch of b prospects. We also have a ton of lottery tickets as someone called them earlier: singleton, santana, collier, hewitt, shreve, cosart, dugan, slate, pettibone, e. garcia, and even big Z and mathieson. I’m probably forgetting some wild cards but we have the potential if all falls right to be a top 5 system i believe.

  38. Really like Way with that change up. Just finished striking out 11 in 6 innings for the Cutters. Fifth round draft picks have turned out well over the years with the likes of Ryan Howard, Michael Taylor and now Matt Way. Way sure has much better numbers after 8 starts than Savery had in his 7 starts in the NY-Penn back in 07.

  39. oh! mike mike: sanchez the converted catcher, correia, and sampson are also guys who could shoot up the rankings, i knew i’d forget some guys. My point is we have a lot of potential and many of these guys will fail but many will be top 15 guys in the near future.

  40. Thanks for the rankings, James. Good to get your expert opinion on these sorts of things.

    May’s numbers are top notch thusfar but he had virtually no hype coming out of college and is pitching at a low level. If he starts out dominating lakewood next year, then it’s time to consider him for top 15. As is, I’ll start voting for him in the mid-20s for next year’s top 30.

    Also, I think #8 is too high for Savery. I don’t think he belongs in the top 15 given his performance to date in professional ball and his lack of stuff. I can’t imagine him cracking the phils’ starting rotation.

    Also, I just saw the Dugan picture James links to on the 2009 draft page – amazing. Worth a click if you haven’t seen it yet.

  41. My guess is that we’ll still be around 10-12 overall after the season…perhaps higher if we sign 2 of the 3 tough signs from this draft. Our top talent is really good…some systems don’t have a Brown or a Drabek…let alone both and a Taylor.

    I vaguely remember seeing that if the systems were rated mid-season (before the Lee trade) that we’d have been around #5-6…amazing turnaround.

  42. Sorry, I was referring to MATTHEW WAY, not TREVOR MAY in my last post. May is definitely an exciting prospect. I’ll want to see more from Way before including him on any top 15 lists.

    I’m guessing I won’t be the last to confuse the two…

  43. Thanks for putting d’Arnaud at #4. I think he’s so close to an enormous season. I wouldn’t mind seeing him split time at A+/AA next year, with a full head of steam for the 2011 season.

  44. I intended to come up with my own Top 10 at some point. I’m still on the Dominic Brown at #1 bandwagon. With other hitters dropping out for lack of playing time, Brown now ranks #1 in the Florida State League in OPS. 2-3 are some order of Taylor and Drabek, #4 is D’Arnaud. Coming up with five onward is a tough task.

  45. I see Worley didn’t suffer through his weekly beating. Happy to see. He seemed to be a pretty good guy when I met him earlier in the year.

    He only had 2 ground outs to 13 fly ball, but 4 of those were pop outs.

  46. Worley is better than he has been pitching of late…I think he still profiles as a decent RH reliever…perhaps a late inning type of setup guy at some point if it all comes together.

  47. What’s your take on Schwimer. He’s really tearing it up this year @ Clearwater and did great last year. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a scouting report on him. Also Mathieson seems to be progressing pretty well.

  48. Heitor Correa certainly warrants a top 15 spot, given that he’s only 29 days older than May and is coming off a full year out of organized baseball (plus Brazil isn’t exactly a baseball hot bed), yet is still putting up nice numbers in Lakewood. He’s putting up better numbers than Sampson did at Lakewood last season and has certainly turned things around after missing all of 2008. Seems like he flies under the radar a bit due to 1) being overshadowed by Knapp and now May and 2) missing a full season of development.

    James, would love to hear your thoughts on Correa.

  49. Correa was also mentioned in trade rumors. That, while not definitive, seems to point to valued prospect status. I think he will soon merit top 15 status. I also believe Edgar Garcia (often listed among our top prospects) will regain that status as well.

  50. I have a question for those of you that are into the minors. What’s with Steve Sosdorf? He is hitting .398, OPS is damn near 1,000, OBP is .446, not many K’s, scouts rank his power higher than Brown or Taylor, contact better than both, and power rating better than both. But I don’t see his name anywhere. I know he is 23 at Clearwater which is a bit old but is this guy a prospect or not? Email me your comments at Chonors686 at Aol dot com and put JOEY – SUSDORF – in the subject line so I don’t delete it.

  51. @ NEPP:
    I still think it’s early to write off Worley as a starter. The numbers haven’t been pretty the last few months, but let’s remember: (1) he was double-jumped to Double-A in his first full season; and (2) he was young for his grade, and is still just 21 years old. I’d guess he’s just fatigued and he’s elevating his pitches a bit. If he were tearing things up in Clearwater right now, we’d be singing his praises as a potential #3 down the line. Context is important here.

    @ tjc:
    I can’t speak for James, but I’m happy to see Correa back and throwing well. His numbers are good but not fantastic from this year (6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.88 FIP), but he is inducing a ton of ground balls (51.7%). To me, any success he has this year is just gravy; after a year off, I was more interested in him getting back in the groove this year, and really turning it loose in 2010 when he had spent time with coaches refining his delivery, secondary offerings, etc. I’ll wait to hear some scouting reports before I pass judgment on where he belongs on this list, but considering this guy was MIA a year ago, things are certainly looking up.

  52. 01 Kyle Drabek P
    02 Dominic Brown RF
    03 Michael Taylor LF
    04 Anthony Gose CF
    05 Travis d’Arnaud C
    06 Domingo Santana RF
    07 Trevor May P
    08 Sebastian Valle C
    09 Leandro Castro CF
    10 Vance Worley P
    11 Edgar Garcia P
    12 Zachary Collier RF
    13 Jonathan Pettibone P
    14 Anthony Hewitt 3B
    15 Michael Stutes P
    16 Julio Rodriguez P
    17 Freddy Galvis SS
    18 Tim Kennelly RF
    19 Michael Schwimer P
    20 Jonathan Singleton 1B

  53. Who says Susdorf has more power than Brown or Taylor? I have never heard that and it’s a bold faced lie.

  54. PhillyFriar, I’m not writing Worley off but that was the report on him coming out of the draft. I haven’t seen anything to change that. Maybe he could be a back of the rotation starter but he seems suited to relief work and he could very well thrive in that type of role. Saying a guy’s upside is a poor man’s Steve Shields is not a bad thing.

  55. I’m interested to see what Mathieson does against AA competition for the next couple weeks. It’d be great to have him come back from 2 TJ surgeries. Should we still consider Scott a prospect or is he more of a rehabbing Major Leaguer at this point?

  56. 1 Kyle Drabek
    2 Dominic Brown
    3 Michael Taylor
    4 Trevor May
    5 Antonio Bastardo
    6 Anthony Gose
    7 Travis d’Arnaud
    8 Andrew Carpenter
    9 Sebastian Valle
    10 Vance Worley
    11 Michael Stutes
    12 Heitor Correa
    13 Joe Savery
    14 Yohan Flande
    15 Domingo Santana
    16 Jonathan Singleton
    17 Zachary Collier
    18 Jonathan Pettibone
    19 Edgar Garcia
    20 Justin De Fratus
    21 Julio Rodriguez
    22 Kelly Dugan
    23 Michael Cisco
    24 Tim Kennelly
    25 Anthony Hewitt
    26 Carlos Monasterios
    27 Matthew Way
    28 Drew Naylor
    29 Colby Shreve
    30 Jarred Cosart

  57. NEPP –

    Tough call on Mathieson – I’d probably say he’s still a prospect since he only had about a half dozen starts, and he was more of an emergency callup IIRC. His Reading career started off nicely – 2IP with no hits allowed last night.

    On the subject of prospects, I’ve been wondering which 2009 draftees have stood out the most so far. It’s been a pretty bland group so far (especially compared with last year), but I’d have to say that Way and Singleton are the two that have impressed so far.

    – Jeff

  58. Mathieson is still a prospect, since he clocks in under the 50 IP rookie threshhold.

  59. I’d still consider Mathieson a prospect. He’s still eligible for ROY, isn’t that the determining factor? I’d also put him in the top 10.

  60. Carpenter probably deserves the top 15. BA has him 22nd coming into the season, coming off a terrible performance at Reading. He’s done much better at LV, certainly nothing to knock him down and five guys above him are now traded or in the majors.

    After some deliberation, I’d make this my top 10.

    1. Dominic Brown
    2. Kyle Drabek
    3. Michael Taylor
    4. Travis D’Arnaud
    5. Sebastian Valle
    6. Anthony Gose
    7. Antonio Bastardo
    8. Zach Collier
    9. Vance Worley
    10. Tyler Cloyd?

    Damn, that’s really tough.

  61. Whatever say you slice it ,next year’s pitching staff should be a thing to behold with deep reserves in the wings

  62. I really don’t see Rosenberg moving up at this point in the season. He’s money in the back end of that pen & with Lakewood going to the playoffs ther extra pressure will be good for him. I would also like to see May in that rotation & De Fratus moved back in the pen.

  63. The question isn’t if Mathieson would qualify for the ROY vote but rather is he worth watching. Is he a prospect in the sense that Dom Brown is a prospect but Andy Tracy is not. To be more basic, does he still have enough upside and development left that he can make an positive, extended and significant impact on the big club.

  64. Alan up to six agree but cloyd and worley over stutes? Zack collier has done nothing to justified a top ranking. Galvis is a better prospect than bastardo, cloyd

  65. Drabek
    Taylor
    Brown
    D’Arnaud
    Valle
    Gose
    May
    Worley
    Santana
    Savery
    Correa
    Stutes
    Mathieson, once my favorite pitcher
    Garcia, I still have hope
    Kennelly, he’d be a lot higher if he could stick at catcher
    Carpenter, due to ML flop and last year
    Bastardo, due largely to injury uncertainties
    Mayberry, due to age and ML flop
    Hewitt
    Collier
    Pettibone
    Naylor
    Dugan, Singleton, too new to be any higher
    Galvis

  66. We have probably 40-45 legit guys in this sytem, and about 20 of those guys are bunched so close together it’s really hard to make a list that you’re happy with. I left Galvis, Cloyd, Shwim, and Sanchez off of my top 30, but by next week those guys could be in my top 20. There’s a lot of talent….see where it pans out at the end of the season.

  67. One more time with feeling: Last year’s draft was amazing! Who remembers all the negative comments about drafting Knapp that high now?? He was the certerpiece of the deal. To be able to draft a high school pitcher in the second round (a pick which many experts panned) and to package him the very next year for the Cy Young winner is most impressive. We still have a terrific system loaded with talent.

  68. I like what I see of Carpenter, I think he should be in the lower end of the top 15. Other than that I might have rearranged it some after Taylor but those are the right players

  69. I like that we have a ton of arms in the system. Since baseball is built on pitching and considering how expensive FA pitchers are and how expensive they are to trade for, we need to “grow” our own on the farm.

    Considering our park, we’ll always be able to find hitters, it’s pitchers that won’t come easy.

  70. Do the clearwater reporters have any info on Darren Byrd’s transformation? He suddenly looks like what we expected two years ago but never saw. Either he changed something or he’s finally feeling healthy. Another great pitching day in the system yesterday. Up and down the organization we had terrific performances. Let me know when Matheson, Rosenberg, Schwimmer, or Hyatt gives up a run…

  71. 1.Drabek
    2.Taylor
    3.Brown
    4.Santana
    5.d’Arnaud
    6.Savery
    7.May
    8.Stutes
    9.Worley
    10.Hewitt

  72. To me if Salvery, Hewitt and Santana are our top ten prospect then there is no way our system is top 20 in baseball.

  73. Chance Chapman is putting together a sneaky good year out of the bullpen in Reading, I remember hearing that he had a plus slider and decent velo, maybe John Sickels site?

  74. If D’Arnaud is # 4, we’ve got some major rebuilding of the farm system to do in the next few years. There’s a major drop off after #3.

  75. Huge dropoff in readiness and certainty after the first three. Just stating the obvious, but it’s shocking to see us lose so much depth at the top. The right move to get Lee, but we have to live with the huge gap in top 10. Nice to have good drafts and younger talent waiting to move up to fill those spots though.

    Also, our OF depth is off the charts. After our three MLB starters, we have these waiting in the wings for starting or spare OF positions:

    Francisco
    Mayberry
    Brown
    Taylor
    Berry
    Gose
    Collier
    Santana

    Catching also OK.

    3B has been our Bermuda trangle for what seems like decades now.

    2010 draft: INFIELDERS!

  76. Mikemike, I ranked Worley and Cloyd over Stutes because both have better K/BB ratios. Worley and Stutes have pitched at the same level, Worley has better control and allowed less home runs, and is a year younger. Not that I’m tremendously confident about where to rank them all, that’s just my thought process.

    As far as Collier, he was ranked in the top 10 of Phillies prospects before the season largely on his skills. He’s hitting for moderate power and walking some, so I’m not going to get scared off by a down year from an 18 year old hitter.

  77. anyone who says we do not have a top ten system just because there is a drop off after #3 is not giving enough credit to the extreme value having 3 blue chippers really has…Of course you will have a drop off after #3 when those 3 are in the top 25 in baseball…You could trade those 3 for 10 High end tier 2 prospects in a second..Id much rather have the 3 blue chippers than depth of tier 2 prospects myself

  78. Our system is still great. In 2 years when some of the most recent draft is in the higher minors, we’ll again be saying DAMN, look at our system.

  79. On the Jody Mac show, John Sickles (Baseball America)basically said that either Travis D’arnuad or Trevor May are the 4 or 5 prospect in the Phillies’ organization. He did’nt consider anyone else. I just mention it because I don’t see many of the above lists with May as #5.

  80. PP:
    What is your opinion of Neil Sellers. He is hitting for both power and average. How good is his defense at 3B? Can he play SS and 2B if necessary? Could he be a replacement for Bruntlett soon and a potential replacement for Feliz in 2011?

  81. ez e

    I think people understand that. The point being made is that a great system has both and that is what we had–guys ready to come both stars and solid regulars or super-subs. Now we are missing the second part for a year or two. We are still worth mentioning as a good syste, but not quite as deep in the second tier.

    Who takes over today if Ruiz and Bako go dow? Last week that would have been Marson. Same with Feliz or Utley last year before Donald’s struggles (which am betting he turns around next year). Same with Carrasco replacing a starter next year or even this if necessary.

    Knapp was also our only other clear front line starter prospect after Drabek. Trevor May could still be that (or Cosart or another prospect) but they are not at the level of Knapp yet, who showed an unusual level of dominance.

    No one is whining. The system is still good, but you have to state what has happened objectively. The trade hurt our depth quite a bit.

  82. well anytime u trade for last years cy young winner its sure to put ur system back a few notches….but ill take my chances on the “what ifs” not happening and take the ace any day of the week(which im sure youd feel the same)..but the funmny thing is the people who we “worry” what if they got hurt, the people listed as the replacements (potentially-marson, donald) have been more hurt this year than the ones we worry about them being able to replace

  83. Drabek
    Taylor
    Brown
    d”nauld
    Gose
    May
    Way
    Valle
    Swimmer
    Galvis
    Cisco
    Susdorf
    Garcia

  84. James – good list.

    Personally, I like Stutes more than I like either Worley or Savery (although, I’d still like to give Savery some more time to re-adjust and even re-gain velocity), but that’s small stuff. Agree with the aggressive ranking of Trevor May. He and Drabek could offer some nice balance to what is otherwise a very left-handed rotation.

    Also, I can’t help but thinking what it would have sounded like for Harry Kalas to say the name “Doe-Ming-Go Saaaantaaana” – I have a lingering hunch that this kid is going to become a big star. But, for now, I’d be happy to see him rip it up in Williamsport next year.

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