226 thoughts on “Trade Discussion, Week of July 27

  1. The Phils should give Halladay one last shot with Drabek, Brown, Donald, and Marson or Carrasco. That’s about as much as I’m willing to part with unless we can also get Fraser in the deal.

  2. Kinda interesting that Ricciardi seems to be wanting OFer Dom Brown in a trade, b/c when I suggested (in response to PP Fan saying that the Jays wouldn’t want Brown or Taylor in a trade b/c they’re blocked) that:

    “Just b/c they don’t NEED Taylor or Brown right now, doesn’t mean they won’t want to acquire either in a trade. They are both potential stud OFers and top prospects, the Jays could always flip one in a deal or have one of them on stand by for when they finally do move Rios or Wells.”

    I was told that thought was ridiculous. Very odd….

    PP Fan Says:
    July 17, 2009 at 12:05 pm

    i don’t know which statement is more ridiculous:

    ** Just b/c they don’t NEED Taylor or Brown right now, doesn’t mean they won’t want to acquire either in a trade**

    – do you really think that a GM is going to trade one of the top pitchers in the game for a package, the center piece of which has a blocked path for the next few years.

  3. Trade Drabek, Happ, Brown, Marson…

    I’d say pull the trigger, enjoy 2 years of dominance with Halladay and have a short memory on the guys we traded away.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Drabek is going to be a stud – but the other guys, I’m not so sure about.

  4. this j.p. ricciardi is an idiot! he has butchered this whole thing and it is a total farce. I have said since the beginning, the Phillies are the only serious bidders, that is it. So, Amaro would be foolish to part with the 3 guys they are asking for. Either he holds him JP for ransom or Halladay stays with the Jays, that is it.

  5. Take your time, gather as much information as possible and then in final day begin to advance a real effort to acquire what you want.

  6. I’d like to see the Phillies find a way to work this deal and keep Drabek. Maybe Happ, Brown, Marson/D’arnaud, Carrasco/Donald, some combination along those lines. Brown has a high ceiling, but there is Taylor ahead of him, lots of guys behind him, and a lot of uncertainty when dealing with a prospect.

    Cardenas could still become a great second baseman for the A’s. But Blanton was instrumental in the WS victory — no way you can look back on the deal with any regrets. Same thing here — I’d like to hang on to Drabek, but as for the rest, I’d would take Halladay and another good chance to repeat over Brown and the rest.

  7. Interesting:

    “Heyman just wrote on SI.com that he thinks word leaked to the Phillies that Roy Halladay has informed the Jays he wants to go to Philly. It’s also possible it’s the only place he’d waive it for…”

  8. I really thought Drabek, Happ and Brown was a fair deal. I’m sure I’ll get killed for it here but if they could have gotten Fraser thrown in as well by adding Donald I probably would have done that deal and had him in red pinstripes by now.

    However, if that was the opening offer and it seems likely the price will be negotiated down I say go for it.

    I’d rather hold onto Taylor, Donald, Carrasco and Donald in the sense that we are loading up for the next two years and those are the guys who will be needed the most in that timespan to remain competitive.

  9. I’d rather throw 4 of Happ/Drabek/Carrasco/Marson/Donald/Taylor

    Does anyone else think that’s fair?

  10. Reiterating: forget the whole thing. The Phils are 16 over .500, with a 6 1/2 game lead. Though obviously they have won nothing yet, they are certainly in a highly favorable position and playing extremely well. I’d say go with what we have. Last year, it was Blanton. This year, who knows Rodrigo Lopez is the 2009 version of Joe Blanton, or even Pedro, possibly with some spot starts using guys from the minors. The postseason is basically a three-man rotation with Hamels, Blanton and one of Happ, Moyer, Lopez or Pedro. We would be ok. At the same time, we preserve a carefully constructed minor league system to begin filling in the holes that will certainly appear in the future. I think we should settle down and go after a decent righthanded bat for the bench and possibly someone for the bullpen with so many on the DL. Within a relatively short time (1-2 years), Carrasco, Drabek or Knapp may be able to help the big team in a significant way. Maybe Taylor or Brown will be able to move into Werth’s slot when he becomes a FA. Having a good minor league system will provide the Phils with all kinds of flexibility during the course of a season. If we gut the systemj in this almost mindless drive to get just one pitcher, we will lose that flexibility and negate the entire rationale for building the system in the first place.

  11. I would have made the Drabek, Happ and Brown for Halladay deal. I’d hate to lose Drabek, but we’re talking about the best pitcher in baseball here. I think people are overrating Happ, and we’ll still have Taylor even with losing Brown.

  12. I tend to agree with MORGANA’s post, although it’s mistaken to say that a Halladay deal negates the entire rationale for building a strong minor league system. Part of the reason for building a deep, strong system is that you can get a proven ace like Halladay and still have oodles of inexpensive prospects left over.

    If we can get Halladay without giving up Drabek, that’d be sweet. Then I’m in!

  13. The problem is What the hell does our rotation look like in 2011 if we trade happ and drabek.

    Also I’m sick of people saying trade Drabek Happ Brown and donald/marson.

    They offered us drabek happ and brown So I dont know why people keep saying theyd give away extra players for free? I even saw someone on Comcast Say the offer they’d give Toronto yesterday and It had those 3 and more.

  14. Hopefully Phis give a legit offer at some time. Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald isn’t legit.

    If they are unwilling to move Drabek/Brown, a sane deal would include Knapp/Marson if not both

  15. The Phils are over rating their talent. Seen Drabek pitch three times this year but I have not seen him dominate an entire game the way Hamels did when he shot up the system in 2006. Happ’s a fly ball pitcher and in a best of five NLDS in particular one pitch and he could cost the post season. Brown’s going to be good and the one game I saw him play this year he went 1 for 5 and took a bad route in right on an extra base hit in the gap. So none of these guys together equals the best ground ball pitcher in baseball right now or next year and that’s what it is all about.

  16. Bedrosian’s Beard – it appears that i was wrong. i still don’t understand why JP would value Brown so much when he is clearly blocked by two pretty unmovable contracts and Snyder. but it appears that i was wrong on this one.

  17. Bossss-

    “The problem is What the hell does our rotation look like in 2011 if we trade happ and drabek.”

    Did anyone think Blanton would be on this team prior to his trade? How about Moyer? Granted trading Happ + Drabek drains us of 2 available pitchers for 2011, BUT we could have Hallday extended…maybe. We could Extend Blanton…maybe. We could make another trade or sign a free agent. We staill have Bastardo/Savery/Knapp/Worley/Carrasco type pitchers. One of those should be in the 2011 rotation.

    At the same time Happ and Drabek could both get injured or regress. I’d take my chances with what the 2011 rotation MIGHT look like rather than wait another 27 years for a Championship Baseball team.

  18. i am starting to think that this deal won’t happen.

    if Amaro concedes with drabeck and happ, then he just cut off his balls in public and every GM will know that they can wait him out. his career will be over as soon as it starts. on the flip side, if JP blinks first, this could be the final nail in his coffin as GM.

    personally, i am starting to desire a package of Carasco, Donald and Taylor for Lee. Adding Lee and keeping Happ and Drabeck and Brown is much more desirable than trading them for Halladay. i honestly don’t think that there is a huge difference between what Lee or Halladay gives us.

  19. Their Probably going to eat Wells contract at some point maybe as soon as next year. And Rios contract is more friendly than people think fangraphs did a thing on them both.
    And to Rickey Branch Drabek throws 97 and has a devasting curve. Thats a start. Of course none of them are worth Halladay. The problem is 3 of them together are worth more then him and give us enough salary room to sign a guy like lackey thats the problem.

  20. Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald is a legit deal.

    Toronto gets an elite OF prospect.

    A SS ready for the show.

    A 22 year old in AAA that has tons of talents but lacks the mental side. That can develop. The average human brain doesn’t even reach maturity until 25. Its why emotions are the last thing to mature in most people.

    Happ is a solid albeit slightly over rated starting pitcher but the Jays are not in a position of strength.

    O and as a side note every assumes Halladay will be here next year. He can simply opt out and get the best deal possible. I know I’d do that.

  21. Regarding Lackey, forget it. The Phils have never signed an top of the line FA pitcher to a long-term contract. There’s nothing to indicate that this will change. They will not get into a bidding war. However, if they have someone like Halladay, and they are only bidding against themselves, there’s a chance they could sign him to an extension.

  22. Halladay CANNOT opt out. I keep seeing that, but it isn’t true. The BEST he can do is request a trade, which he wouldn’t do because the Phillies will in all likelihood be considered favorites to win the World Series next year with him in the rotation.

  23. Ryman – I would agree with you if Halladay’s contract was more than just 15 months. The way it now stands, we would be renting a pitcher at the price of the top talent in the system. If he came with an extension (and was a bit younger) that would be a different situation. As to other contributors, To Bossss, just as Happ or Drabek could get injured the same applies to Halladay. In analyzing the possible trade, we have to leave out words like “maybe”, “perhaps” and “what if”, and look only at what is and is not. The rest is speculation. As for the question that a particular player is blocked by a very good player now on the Phil’s team, I think that is unimporant. Remember that we almost gave up Ryan Howard precisely for this reason. If Brown and/or Taylor continue to develop, the time might come when the Phils would have to think seriously of trading Werth or Victorino to make way for a much younger player from the system. Players like that could get a Halladay almost by themselves, especially Victorino. Obviously, I am not proposing that this be done now but who knows after the 2010 season??

  24. PP Fan-thanks for admitting that. We’ve all been wrong. Sorry to dig that up-rubbed me the wrong way.

    Stark is reporting Knapp may be back in consideration (if he was ever taken out). I assume the BJ’s would want to take a look at that shoulder.

  25. Two championships since the 1800’s people. The core of the current team (one of the best we’ve seen in Philadelphia) is poised for a strong run this year and next. They need another starter and Halladay is available. Please don’t let Drabek and Brown (and whichever reasonable package of other names it takes) prevent this team from getting a true ace like Halladay.

    And don’t tell me we did it without Halladay last year. Last year is over and teams like the Dodgers and Giants are stronger this year. Halladay for two starts in a series gives this team a real edge.

  26. I think PP Fan is right . This is now a pissin contest and has little to do with baseball. I can’t wait for saturday. Dont be surprise if they get a pitcher hardly talked about. That way
    Amaro saves face get baseball things done and the other guy can ….. go get water ice

  27. nowheels, if you’re talking about a pitcher hardly talked about, keep your eye on Aaron Harang. He’s not where he was a couple of years, but he could benefit from a change of scenery. Plus, he’s an inning eater. He’s not Halladay or Lee, but we could get him without giving up Drabek, Happ, Taylor or Brown.

  28. To Jeff S:

    Good thought on Harang, but I doubt none of the prospects listed would be in the deal. One of those guys will have to be included. Harang is a good pitcher. He won’t come cheap despite not being named Halladay or Lee.

  29. Phenix said: “Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald is a legit deal.”

    I disagree. Yes, I think Happ is having a very good year, but there is little reason to think that he will perform to this level every year. His performance is shocking to just about everyone, so though he may be a solid pitcher for years to come, I doubt even the Phils are thinking that he will continue to pitch this way.

    Taylor is doing great and I cannot criticize him, but other GMs for some reason don’t view him as an elite prospect in the same way that they do Brown.

    Carrasco has not pitched well at all this year and Dubee didn’t seem to be his biggest fan during Spring training. If a pitcher is not doing that great at AAA, should the Jays really regard him as a major piece to receive in exchange for the best pitcher in baseball, hoping that his lack of performance is do to his lack of brain development, which every single other minor league prospect has to deal with as well?

    Finally, Donald is not pro ready. He is a utility player at best and no more than a throw in.

    So basically your deal is:
    A mid to back-end rotation starter who you don’t expect to perform as well in the future.
    An outfielder who could be really good.
    A minor league pitcher who is immature and under performing.
    A utility player.

    Would you be happy if the Phils traded Hamels for that? Would you be happy if we traded someone who was even better than Hamels and was having a much better year?

  30. My last comment got me thinking. Imagine your trade scenarios if the Phils were having a down year and thinking about trading Hamels. Granted he is younger than Halladay, but his contract will only last a few more years and he hasn’t performed as well as Halladay (I leave out the postseason because Halladay hasn’t had the opportunity to play in it).

    Would you accept those players for Hamels? In some cases, I think some people actually think we should be able to get Halladay in exchange for Marson, Donald, Carpenter, and Kendrick.

  31. here’s my idea.

    trade Drabek, Happ and Brown for Halladay. Give them what they want, its fair, in fact its MORE than fair for the best pitcher in the AL East who would dominate against the NL. Remember CC against the NL last year.

    Then IF Taylor continues to rake look to ship Werth to say the Pirates for Zach Duke.

    That gives you a rotation of:

    Halladay
    Hamels
    Duke
    Blanton
    who cares

    and an offense of:

    Rollins
    Victorino
    Utley
    Howard
    Ibanez
    Feliz
    Taylor
    Ruiz/Marson

  32. It is the only way to go for Amaro ,Haren would be nice.
    But Frankly I would be more interested in Martinez at this point. I star catcher would do great things for this lineup.
    Since his name has come up in the Dodger trade if that trade falls through Ruben should pounce.

  33. Just let me point out one thing. Most every player that has come here has improved. Uncle Charlie pointed out that Blanton is a much better pitcher now than when he was with the A’s. Werth is a much better player than he was at the start
    of the year. etc etc. Majors and minors the recent Phillies have turned coat into diamonds. Maybe we dont need to pay for a diamond ,just find a really nice lump of coal.

    Lou’s Longshot of the day.
    My money is on Drabek closing before the year is out

  34. Latest article indicates that an Indians scout will be at the reading game tonight. If Drabek is untouchable, who on this team would be a player of interest?

  35. The interesting thing about Cliff Lee is that, because he is a lesser pitcher, the team may be able to get him for either few top tier prospects or more lower tier prospects. It’s pretty intriguing. The question you have to ask yourself is this: if you were Mark Shapiro, at what point to do you have to say “yes”

    Example packages:

    Savery, Carrasco, Marson
    Savery, Carrasco, Carpenter, Bastardo
    Taylor and Marson
    Knapp, Carrasco, Valle/D’Arnaud (not a terrible trade – lot of potential for Cleveland, only top tier prospect gone is Knapp)
    Taylor, Savery, Bastardo (some pain on both sides, but we get a potential ace and Cleveland gets a big-time OF to build on along with some other interesting arms)

  36. JT,

    Don’t agree. Harang’s making 8 figures this year and next. Reds will be looking to clear some payroll. I think a package of, say, Carrasco and Marson would get it done.

  37. I have to stop now. Playing fantasy GM in these situations gets you nowhere and wastes a lot of your time. Let’s just see what happens.

  38. I’d much rather trade for Cliff Lee, considering he is cheaper, wouldn’t deplete our system as badly to trade for and really isn’t much of a dropoff from Halladay in terms of production and talent.

    And this is unrelated, but given our bullpen issues I’ve been thinking about what minor leaguers would be effective out of the pen…. and I’m surprised Stutes has never come up! He is basically a two-pitch pitcher on the fast track who’s pitching hot right now, and I’ve seen him pitch and think that his fastball and slider would really play up in the pen. His slider isn’t exactly Lidge-esque, but has been called the best in our system by scouts. And his fastball consistently touches 96 when he’s on.

  39. I don’t know if some of you guys forget this but Cliff Lee was far and away the best pitcher in baseball last year. The guy won over 20 games and completely dominated the American League. So while it may be true that the Indians’ asking price may be a little less than Toronto’s, there is no way that they won’t want Drabek/Happ, and then Taylor/Brown to start a deal with the phillies. This isn’t like we’re trading for Kyle Lohse again here. He is a top of the line ace on a team that might contend next year and there is no shot that Cleveland just gives him away.

  40. Jon good point but dont forget that he has a 3.14 era and 3 cg this year. the phillies only have 2 cg this year as a team.

  41. All those thinking “Lee is going to be cheaper” I think need to recalibrate.

    Phils are still going to have to part with at least one of the top guys (Brown, Taylor, Drabek, etc.) plus others. Might not take two, but it will take more than people here are speculating.

  42. Cliff Lee won’t be cheap either. He’s having a great year, won the Cy Young past year and has a friendlier contract then Halladay. It will still take either Drabek or Brown to get him. Also, Clevland could be back in contention next year in an so- so division. They will need to be blown away to move him.

  43. With his no trade clause Halladay is essentially a free agent with two options: Toronto or one other team. That other team, of course, has to have an interest in trading for him and the willingness to part with a substantial package of players.

    If Halladay, for whatever reasons, has already decided where he wants to play after his contract runs out he can simply decide he doesn’t want a year and a half detour and invoke his rights to veto any trade.

    Now, consider all the reasons he wants to play for the Phillies:
    1) contender status for the foreseeable future.
    2) a positive locker room
    3) a passionate fan base that helps create the atmosphere that pumps up the adrenaline.
    4) Training facility is near his winter home in Dunedin.
    5) Financial capability of ownership to meet his contract demands when it’s time to negotiate an extension.

    The conclusion I’m arriving at is that Halladay is either coming to Philly or he’s staying in Toronto.

    Now, before I submit this post I’m going to try to answer the one big question: Why would he have already decided where he wants to play before he gets to free agency?

    1)By all accounts he is a very loyal man who places a high value on routine. He really doesn’t want a year and a half detour.
    2) He knows the pressure to re- sign would be huge given the amount of prospects a team would have to give up to get him and he would want to dissuade them from doing so if he’s uncertain about staying.(I can hear the cynics now)
    3) Money is not as important as the other reasons I already listed. He just needs to know he can get fair market value.

    It’s up to JPR and Ruben now.

  44. Every account that I’ve read has talked about Lee coming cheaper, so I just reiterated that as support for why we should go after him…. I wasn’t criticizing him- I know he is a top pitcher.

  45. Do you guys really think that the Indians are open to trading Lee? He has a cheap deal that only costs them $5m now and $9M next season.

    And I agree with the above posts that Ruben JR needs to stand pat and not give away the original package. I would be more open to giving up that kind of talent IF Halladay would sign an extension. However I really doubt that he will.

  46. What’s funny about my awesome trade proposal is that Mets and Yankees fans consistently throw out crap like that and they are dead serious.

  47. Mike Stutes might be our “ace in the hole” – no pun intended.

    If he really throws mid 90s, he could make it exciting really soon.

    The more I think about these trades, the more I think we’ve got a bit of pitching to burn.

  48. What do you guys think about this package?

    Happ
    Brown
    Knapp
    and Carrasco

    They get their #1 prospect in Brown, their MLB ready pitcher in Happ, plus they get 2 other pitching prospects.
    We get to keep Drabek along with Taylor. Seems like it would work for both sides.

  49. From the NY Post: “Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi is emphasizing a need for at least one player to move directly onto the major league roster”

    I hope this isn’t true. A demand like this is simply not bargaining in good faith. Either the Jays are trading the present for the future or they’re not. Both sides should feel like winners when walking away from the table. This shouldn’t be as difficult as JP is making it.

    I have a feeling JP won’t last as GM whether he trades Halladay or not. Most GMs have already rejected his outlandish demands and he’s getting a bad reputation. At this rate he’s likely to wind up with an unhappy ace (way to pay Halladay back by keeping him out of the playoffs, JP!) and a declining asset at that. Halladay will never fetch more value than right now and everyone knows it.

    Meanwhile we need to keep the emotion out of the negotiations if we can. JPs poor behavior makes me think he’s desperate which means he’ll likely cave in at the end. We just need to stick to our guns and remain reasonable. The owner of the Jays isn’t going to want to look Halladay in the eye and tell him they didn’t honor his service with a chance to win a ring because his GM was making outlandish demands to his peers and acting like a child.

    Either way our Phillies are poised to make a run. What are the Jays poised to do? Maybe fire their GM.

  50. How about Washburn from Settle? His ERA is about 2.70, he’s got 2 months left before FA and Seattle is about to go into fire sale mode. He would be much cheaper than Lee or Halladay. Don’t know if he can keep up the pitching next year, but he’d essentially a rental and could be priced accordingly. But he’s been great so far this season. (And has several great seasons in his past so it’s not a fluke.)

  51. yeah Nepp,
    but we get the best pitcher in baseball for the next 1 1/2 years and keep 2 of our top 3 prospects …

    and when our rotation next year is:
    Halladay
    Hamels
    Blanton
    Moyer
    Drabek

    are you really gonna complain? We have literally about 10 other guys who could step up by 2011 or earlier … in addition to Drabek – Savery, Worley, Stutes, Bastardo, Kendrick, Carpenter are all getting close … not to mention guys like Garcia, Sampson, and May could all be in the mix as well by then if they have good 2010 seasons. #4 and #5 pitching isn’t going to be a problem.

  52. Thinking along the same lines as Danno, I would offer Drabek, Brown, Knapp, and Marson or Donald. I also would be willing to go Drabek, Brown, Carrasco, and Marson or Donald. I just think giving up Drabek, Brown, and Happ is quite a haul for the Jays and a little too much for me. You would think with all the pitching that has come up for them this year and pitched well for the most part (Romero, Richmond, Cecil, etc.) that they would be more focused on our hitting prospects and would only require one big arm and maybe a second tier one. They really have a lot of holes in there starting nine and not much prospect-wise there. That being said, if you held a gun to me on July 31st and 3PM I would accept Brown, Drabek, and Happ because you don’t get many chances to acquire the best pitcher in baseball.

  53. ****are you really gonna complain? We have literally about 10 other guys who could step up by 2011 or earlier … in addition to Drabek****

    I’m not saying I wouldn’t do the trade…just that it would be a tough one to do. Given the high fail rate of young pitchers, I don’t have as much issue giving up Knapp in a deal.

  54. What I’m trying to point out is the very prospects you all purpose in the Halladay trade will be needed shortly to replace those retiring and non productive. Halladay is just one pitcher. We will need 2 or 3 next year. Park won’t resign, he wants to start. Drabek will replace Myers if he doesn’t resign, Donald, Brunnlet, Marson, Bako and Taylor will replace Stairs. An who are these players near veteran minimum? If that’s the case then let’s just resign Brunnlet, Bako, Erye, and Steve Register. That’s sure to make us better. The fact is that trading for Halladay will make the Phillies weaker not only down the road but in the short term.

    They want to get some salary relief let’s start with players like Carpenter and go from there.

  55. To Airborn:

    I understand the point you are making, but for the second time it makes no sense. Can we agree the overall goal of the organization is to win a World Series? The short-term is this year and next. How can you possibly argue the addition of Halladay weakens the teams chances of a world series in the short term?

    The worst case scenario (trade wise) as far as losses to the current MLB roster is Happ for Halladay or Lee. That is it.

    Park, Bako, Bruntlett, Stairs, and Eyre can certainly be replaced. And for cheap.

  56. “The fact is that trading for Halladay will make the Phillies weaker not only down the road but in the short term.” – Airborneranger

    I remember a time when this site didn’t have comments like this.

  57. shapiro is smarter than riccardi and will demand a kings ransome for lee. happ for halliday would you do it? until someone can gaurantee that drabek is at least as good as his dad and brown can bring us a future blue chip 3rd baseman thats thats the deal happ for halliday.

  58. plain and simple, this deal is not going to happen because the phillies aren’t willing to include drabek

  59. The Blue Jays are asking for a major league pitcher, our #1 pitching prospect, our #1 position player for a player who going in will only have a year and 2 months contract time with the Phillies. It’s pretty simple to me, that will weaken the Phillies in the short term because he will test the market after next year and we have the pleasure of whiching three players we had become productive major leaguers.

  60. @The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

    Hallelujah. Happ straight up for Halladay?!?! Halladay makes us weaker in the short term?!?! I told myself I wasn’t going to bother with this any more, but part of me wishes PP would just say “no more trade talk.”

    I know I should stop reading these threads, but I’d really like to be able to have reasonable discussion about trades. Not only a trade for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but what it would take us to get a right-handed bat for the bench and who that should be. Apparently that’s not possible.

    Mark my words, if we make a trade – any trade – the comments section of every post will make it seem like the sky is falling. It was impossible to go a single post without a, “remember when we traded away Adrian Cardenas” whine session last year. Just imagine if we traded away Sandy Koufax and Don Drydsdale, er… I mean… J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek.

  61. The Phils payroll will go above 140 million next year with the addition of Halliday. I’d still do it, though b/c it’s not my money. It could be a reason the Phils are balking at including all of their top 3 prospects. They may view these players as “salary relief” in the next few years when Werth, Vic, Blanton, etc. move to 10 million + in salary.

  62. To me this team has a five year window right now, if they can sign howard an hamels, and that would depend on if donald can play third, at less money, drabek replaces moye at less money, carrasco replaces myers at less money, and brown and taylor replace ibanez and werth,

  63. people act like the philles are going to fall off the end of the earth if they make this deal. we,ll have halliday for a year and a half, maybe we should resign him? were giving up our best position player, i dont think so, taylor is better. so were giving up our number 3 who i happen to like alot and our number 1 pitching prospect who probably will be good for one of the 5 best pitchers in bb. i think travis lee, nelsonson figueroa, were top prospects and omar daal was on the d-backs staff, i forget the other guy. i really doudlt that money is any concern. i,m sure you all remember in 1993 the phils had traded at the deadline for randy johnson but backed out at the last minute because rivera,and west and i think t. green were too much. i think we,d have won with johnson and schilling. just some counter points.

  64. Uhh, Cliff Lee isn’t more valuable than Halladay. So the Indians know they aren’t getting a kings ransom.

    1) He isn’t as good
    2) He only has the rest of this year on his deal.

  65. AF Says: “The Phils payroll will go above 140 million next year with the addition of Halliday.”

    This is just wrong. Myers’ salary comes off the books next year. So does Thome’s salary (finally). It’s basically a wash.

  66. I think the Phils should make the deal. The team’s window of contention is however long Utley remains in his prime. If the club trades Happ and Drabek for Halladay, their rotation looks good through next year. That gives the club a season and a half to develop Worley, Stutes, Carrasco, and the lower A ball group of pitchers. We think this team has a great deal of pitching depth in the minors. Surely they can develop a couple others for the rotation, right?

    And I’m convinced Dominic Brown is the best prospect in the system. But the two best position prospects are both right fielders, and it’s a good move to trade your organizational depth for major league stars.

  67. Willingham’s value just went up – two grand slams yesterday. If the Nats will take Kendrick for him, do it!

  68. Rumor has it that charlie manuel is tryin to get the phillies to get zach duke… Any thoughts? I am not completely against this, duke has a lot of talent and even though he is 9-9 his era is 3.42 and he plays in Pittsburgh. He would also be a lot cheaper to obtain.

  69. another highly touted pitcher, vicente padilla. that was it padilla, figueroa,daal, and lee for schilling. we certainly did well there. just make the damn deal.

  70. I don’t want any part of Zach Duke. His career strikeout rate is far too low to maintain this season’s success.

  71. Alan not sure if strikeout rate is that important, plus as mentioned before blanton was made into a better pitcher by coming to phily. Does anyone know whether duke is a groundball or a fly ball pitcher?

  72. @G$ The savings from all of the expiring contract is eaten up and then some by the pre-negotiated raises for players currently on the roster. If we want to spend more money, make no mistake, it will be pushing the payroll higher.

  73. C$-yes money does come off the books next year, but a handful of guys, including Hamels and Howard, are getting raises.

    Duke is sort of intriguing, but I dunno. Snell is even more intriguing, but a lot of potential downside, too.

  74. Werth gets a big raise too. And Vic is up for another round of arbitration. I think he’ll get a big jump from the 2 mil he’s getting this year. Raul goes up as per contract and Blanton is also into another year of arb.

  75. Some statistics:

    Ehockeyman, Duke has a 1.26 ration of groundballs to flyballs so he is a ground ball pitcher.

    Cliff Lee gives up more hits than innings pitched and is not a ground ball pitcher (groundballs and flyballs about equal). I don’t think that this is a good combination for Citizens Bank Park. I wouldn’t give up a lot to get him.

    Drabek is worse against lefthanded hitters in AA (.333 BA) than even Kyle Kendrick in AAA (.281 BA). There is no guarantee that he will ever be an ace. If Tioronto will take him, Brown and Happ for Halladay, I would do it, as Halladay will replace Happ, Drabek is unproven and Brown is in A ball.

  76. I believe this current group is a great team. They are A LOT of fun to watch and they play good ball. It’s very easy to root for this team as opposed to the teams with Leiber, Abreau, Rolen, Lieberthal and the rest of that dreck that didn’t care if they won or not.

    That being said, the finances of a WFC always catches up with ownership and they get to expensive to keep. They have a great shot this year and next to do great things. After that, every one of their starting 8 as well as many of their pitchers will be making a ton of money.

    The FO has to decide to part with 3 or 4 of the guys who MAY be able to fill some of these voids for WAY less money for a guy (Halliday or Lee) who will hopefully help us to another WFC.

    The decision is not an easy on for sure. I hope they do it, though. I believe (after the 2010 season) they can always trade one or 2 of those guys for younger talent to help with the payroll.

    All that has been said about the top 3 seems to infer that the rest of the farm system is void of ML talent. Who knows? Maybe the next Utley, Howard, Hamels is already in the system.

    Let’s do our best to win now and worry about 2011 after the parade in 2010.

  77. If the “gaggle of prospects” sought by the Pirates in exchange for Duke signifies quantity, rather than quality, this could be exactly the sort of deal we’d prefer to make. Duke isn’t a difference making ace, but our skipper thinks he’s an all-star, he’s under control thru 2011 and we should be able to nab him without sacrificing any of our elite prospects.

    How about Carrasco, Donald, Carpenter, Kendrick for Duke? Throw in a younger “C” level prospect if that doesn’t yet constitute a “gaggle”…or how about Mayberry? I’m sure they’d want Taylor, but a deal could be struck without him. They could also have interest in some of our younger arms.

  78. btw my “offer” was based on John Perrotto’s speculation on “Pirates Report”, to whom mlbtraderumors attributed this rumor. Here is the relevant paragraph:

    The Phillies have a deep farm system and could make an attractive offer for Duke, though it seems likely Class AA Reading right-hander Kyle Drabek and high Class A Clearwater outfielder Dominic Brown would be off limits. However, the Phillies have a host of prospects at Class AAA Lehigh Valley who could interest the Pirates, including right-handers Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald and outfielder Michael Taylor

    http://www.piratesreport.com/page/blogs.detail/display/176/Phillies-eyeing-Duke-and-other-rumors.html

  79. I would not have a problem with Zack Duke. If deals for Halladay or Lee are deemed too costly, I like Duke. He fights. He would be a good fit. Tough to say what fair value would be for him.

  80. duke would be intriguing if we could do it for the above deal: nobody i would lose any sleep over.
    The phils could have as much as 37+ mil coming off the books with eaton, jenkins,thome, myers, and possibly park, eyre, stairs, bruntlett. there will be some money left after raises

  81. Jeez, please no Duke, he is not a good pitcher. He is a mediocre pitcher benefiting from amazing luck this year. His BABIP this year is .259, the league average and his career average are around .300. Also, his GB numbers are down this year and I would not want to see what righties do to one of his fastballs left up in the zone. If you look at his career numbers, there is no reason to believe that he will keep up the numbers he put up this year. If you think that this guy will make a difference and is a serious upgrade over Lopez/Moyer/Pedro, you are sorely mistaken. It is not worth giving anything up for just another average lefty. We need a horse either Halladay or Lee. If we can’t get one of those guys we could definitely get Washburn who is much better than Duke and has more of a track record.

  82. I feel like we could get 3 of our pressing needs fixed by trading with washington for a simillar package;
    of course we would not be getting an ace in this deal.
    John lannan, j. willingham, j. biemel -a good young pitcher, excellent reliever w/ a long track record of success and a right hander who has 16 homers while not even playing every day. I wonder it would get it done and if we wouldn’t be better off if we gave up brown,carrasco=lannan-
    -carpenter, donald=wllingham-
    -bastardo,kendrick= biemel
    Just some musings of mine, knowing the nats would be reluctant to move their young starter whom they control for several years. I would love halladay but this way we would keep taylor and drabek so essentially you could add them to the plus side of the ledger with the 3 players netted.

  83. Andy Martino believes the Indians will be scouting Drabek and Worley.

    I think Lee would take Drabek, as well as some other decent pieces, but not Brown or Taylor.

  84. If the Halladay deal happens at all, IMO it will be Drabek+Brown+one or two lesser prospects. I don’t think Happ will be part of the deal (Phillies won’t trade both Drabek and Happ; Toronto won’t do the deal without Drabek).

    Why that might not work:

    (1) Stubborness on Toronto’s part, or
    (2) Refusal of the Phillies to part with Drabek.

    I would do the deal.

  85. way to much for duke. i heard that the real guys deciding the halliday deal are gillick and a guy named beaston from toronto. both in favor. both worked together and are very good friends.

  86. I wouldn’t worry too much about the payroll the next 2 seasons b/c if they win another world series, there will be a ton of merchandise sold again to make the payroll jump a little easier on the org. What’s the old saying bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush, and halladay is a freakin giant bird. BTW i will be really upset if they stand pat or just end up with a washburn type guy.

  87. Duke is at most a #4 on this team and doesn’t interest me. I like mark’s proposal because it fulfills 3 needs. Would washington have any motivation to do this deal? if so lets at least throw it out there and see what washington does with it.

  88. In terms of next year’s payroll, current payroll obligations for next year (this includes raises for players who have multi-year contracts) is only 96 million. That excludes arb eligible, or pre-arb eligible players, as well as a couple of free agents that the Phillies likely will try to re-sign. Most of those players, however, won’t cost a ton; the only two arbs that likely will cost a significant amount of money will be Victorino and Blanton. Oh, almost forgot, it also doesn’t include picking up the option on Feliz.

    96 million+halladay+Blanton+Victorino+Feliz+the rest of the likely 2010 roster likely will be roughly equal to the 2009 payroll – though adding a decent reliever or two and a decent right handed bench player likely will put them a little (but not a lot) over 130 million.

    Despite a few mistakes, on balance the Phillies have done a fantastic job of payroll management. The Utley contract in particular is astonishingly good for the Phillies.

  89. washburn would be an upgrade imo. i think as far as money the phils are fine as long as they dont go over the luxary tax. 160.mil?

  90. To Rodeo:

    “Andy Martino believes the Indians will be scouting Drabek and Worley”

    If this is true, and we can give up Drabek (and lesser prospects), and no Taylor, Brown, or Happ…I would jump all over this.

    I think they would also ask for Taylor or Brown to be added to Drabek. No different than Halladay. But who knows….

  91. I wouldn’t mind washburn either john, he is having a real nice year and is experienced. what would it take to get him? he would become our #2 or 3 behind blanton.

  92. SIFPA Says:
    Some statistics:

    Ehockeyman, Duke has a 1.26 ration of groundballs to flyballs so he is a ground ball pitcher.

    Just barely not enough to make a difference. And by the way I have refute that gb/fb thing in CBP as bunk. Low pitches are easier to elevate. If a pitcher only hangs a hand full he is toast. Personally I have never heard of a hanging fastball.

    marky mark
    Throw in Alberto Gonzalez and make it four fixes. Washington may want younger players which is ok.
    Let “Ricky Ricardo” stew in the millions he is giving away.

  93. JT – that’s just speculation on my part, but I don’t see why the Phillies would be interested in Lee unless they thought they could keep Brown or Taylor in the process. I still think Drabek would be in the deal though.

  94. This all makes for good theater and as each sport competes for entertainment dollars the trade deadline represents opportunity for maximizing exposure and fan interest. A deal will get done, if it already hasn’t, and it will probably be last minute so as to allow for as many running days(in the theatre) as possible. four player deal.

  95. Oh, and Verducci on si.com has a nice piece on the whole Halladay process. The most interesting part is that he hears Gillick and Charlie are for the deal while Rube and the rest are against it. Interesting.

  96. I am all about Prospects…but the Phillies have to acquire Halladay. I don’t mind losing Drabek, the fact that he had tommy john surgery worries me enough about his long term durability that I think the Jays are overvaluing him. Giving up Happ is a non issue. Give them Happ and Drabek, but don’t let them take Taylor or Brown, that is a fair compromise in my opinion. Let them take their pick from the list of B prospects: Donald, Carrasco…ect.

    I am a bigger fan of Knapp anyway, even though I have never seen him pitch.

    The only argument against giving them Happ and Drabek is what our rotation will look like next year. I don’t care if Moyer is in the rotation, with the offense he will still win games, esp against the Marlins ;). Resigning either Blanton or Myers becomes a must though, so we have to have the money for that. Then the fifth starter do what we did this year…try different things until one of them clicks. That is the Gillick way.

  97. I’m amazed the extent to which I’m in agreement with almost everything John has said lately – even our disagreement over Happ was more apparent than real.

    Washburn would, indeed, be a real upgrade (as opposed to, say, Zach Duke). If they can’t get Halladay or Lee I’d say yes, but only if the price in prospects was MUCH lower (I wouldn’t give up any of Happ, Drabek, Taylor or Brown). He’s not as good as Lee or Halladay, and he is purely a 1/2 year rental (a Boras client).

    Anyone know if he projects as a type A? If so, the price in prospects might be higher.

  98. I would still go for Halladay.

    Happ or Drabek, Brown or Taylor, (and two of the lesser prospects).

    I also believe this deal needs to get done. While I’ll be OK with Duke or Washburn as a consolation prize, Halladay is the guy.

    This one is going down to the wire.

  99. Looks like if Gillick was still here he would have already pulled the trigger. As long as we keep one of Knapp/Drabek and Brown/Taylor I will be a happy guy.

    latest:

    ” Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says many top Blue Jays people are deciding whether to trade Halladay. It’s not just Ricciardi’s decision.

    Meanwhile, SI’s Tom Verducci weighs in. He talked to a scout who spoke of an organizational “tug of war” in Philly, with Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel pushing the win-now move for Doc while Ruben Amaro Jr. and other player development guys are reluctant to move top prospects.

    Verducci says Carlos Carrasco doesn’t do anything for the Jays, and they’ll require either Drabek or Jason Knapp. The Angels and Dodgers are the other top suitors for Halladay, in Verducci’s opinion.”

  100. FYI from Ken Rosenthal:

    “Lee, after learning in spring training that the Indians would not sign him to a contract extension, told the team that he plans to become a free agent when his current deal expires after the 2010 season, according to his agent, Darek Braunecker.”

    “A trade appears inevitable, perhaps even by Friday’s non-waiver deadline.”

    “He is signed this season for $5.75 million. The Indians hold a $9 million option on him for 2010, after which he would become eligible for free agency.”

  101. Although I’d give Washburn the slight edge over Duke right now, Washburn’s contract expires this year, while Duke would give us a dependable, affordable, mid-rotation starter for the next 2 1/2 years. I see a deal for Duke as the 2009 Joe Blanton trade: anticlimatic and seems like a rip-off at the time, but in the long-run, proves to be the right deal at the right time. He’s a durable lefty workhorse entering his prime, who throws strikes and can occasionally shut down teams.(he’s done it to us before) Duke has already thrown 140 innings this year, including 3 complete games.

    Jarrod Washburn’s scouting report says his emotions get the best of him at times. I’ll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt on that, but you certainly don’t want an easily rattled pitcher on the mound in the playoffs. Washburn may be mowing them down in a contract year for a non-contender, but how does that translate to his performance in Game 3 at Dodger Stadium?

  102. It is widely know that some in the Phillies management see
    Drabek as a eventual top gun closer. It seems like that part of the organization is not allowing the trade to go through.
    THE LOGIC
    If you plan to start Drabek, the addition of Halladay would
    make Drabek more available. But if you plan to use Drabek to finish games ,the addition of Halladay means little.

  103. “Although I’d give Washburn the slight edge over Duke right now, Washburn’s contract expires this year, while Duke would give us a dependable, affordable, mid-rotation starter for the next 2 1/2 years. I see a deal for Duke as the 2009 Joe Blanton trade: anticlimatic and seems like a rip-off at the time, but in the long-run, proves to be the right deal at the right time. ”

    I think our needs are different than they were in 2008. In 2008 a Blanton type pitcher was just what we needed. Now, not so much. We HAVE Blanton, and now Happ, filling that role. Assuming we have Hamels, Happ, and Blanton through 2010 at least, and some promising prospects, the clear need is for a top of the rotation pitcher – certainly for this year and 2010 anyway. Duke wouldn’t fill that role. Washburn would, not as well as Halladay and Lee, but well enough, for 2009 anyway.

    If we HAD to trade Happ to get Halladay, then picking up Duke to take his spot might make some sense.

  104. I agree with LarryM. We have the middle and back of the rotation filled out, either add to the top or add nothing at all. I think nothing would annoy me more then trading Carrasco, Marson and Worley (and that’s probably even a bit light) for Washburn.

  105. I can’t believe that Ruben would turn down Happ, Drabek and Brown for the best starter in baseball. I really believe that there was more it than that. I think the Jays ask for more, they could have asked for Knapp and D’Naurd in that deal. Personally I would tell them Either Happ or Drabek, Brown or Taylor, and add in some lesser parts like Carpenter etc. If they say No which all indications are they have then move on give the same deal to Cleveland, I can’t believe Cleveland would say no to a deal headlined by Drabek and Brown for Lee.

  106. as i said above the guy most responsible is somebody named beaston on toronto,s end. gillick and he are very good friends and both are for the deal. from what i heard, and it wasnt from ‘ joe from fishtown’ the deal is not etched in stone. happ, drabek, and brown for halliday but gillick is for the deal anyway.btw beaston is president of the jays. i think it,ll get done.

  107. Is there a source for the “Drabek as a closer” statement? I keep seeing it, but nothing to back it up. I could see him as a closer someday-maybe-but I don’t think that is what the Phils have in mind for him.

  108. Beard, Amaro has already come out and said that he does not see Drabek contributing to the major league club this year. There is no substance to the closer statements by people, just speculation based on what other teams have done in the past with top arms (ie-Andrew Miller with the Tigers a couple years ago and Samarzdji (sp) with the Cubs). Another reason why I don’t see him as a closer or BP arm any time this year is because he has already pitched more this year than any year professionally, so once the Reading season is over, his season is over, unless he’s traded of course.

  109. if this time last year we were told that Halladay would be available for Happ, Drabek and Brown we would have asked where to sign.

    But watching these guys develop is a lot of fun. Happ I can live with but not the 2 best prospects in the system.

  110. Everyone should check out Stark’s new article on ESPN, he has some good insights and is always a great read

  111. Bedrosian’s Beard Drabek as a closer has been discussed on
    csn and wip etc. Its nothing new

  112. The Phils obviously view Drabek as part of the rotation next year or at some point next year, and not in the bullpen where he wouldn’t be valuable.

  113. The only deal I would make if I were Amaro is Happ, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald, and Marson/D’Anaurd. I understand that might not get Halladay, but I can’t see the justification to move Drabeck and Brown. Happ is at the apex of his value right now, he will never be worth more (pitching way over his head) so lets please get something for him. If it’s Lee so be it. I’d make the same deal above for Lee if possible. That doesn’t mean I value Halladay and Lee equally, just that is all I’m willing to give up for a top of the rotation starter.

  114. A while back I proposed a trade of Taylor, Carrasco, Knapp and Donald with the proviso that I would replace Carrasco with Happ if the Jays didn’t like him. Well, apparently they don’t and if their initial offer is correct they prefer Brown also.

    So, if an offer of Brown,Happ,Knapp and Donald doesn’t get it done I’m moving on. I’m leaving Drabek out because his MLB eta is 2011 which corresponds with Halladay’s walk year if we can’t re-sign him. I just found out his agent is Boras so you know he’s testing the FA waters.

    Also, everyone is assuming we will get top draft pick compensation if we lose him but the Yankees signed 3 type A FA’s this off-season -Sabathia,Teixera and Burnett- with the following compensation: The Angels got pick #25 and 40 for losing Teixera. ( I believe he signed first) The Brewers, for losing last year’s trading deadline darling-Sabathia- received pick #’s 39 and 73.
    The Jays received pick #’s 37 and 104 for losing Burnett.

    So, not only is the draft itself a crapshoot but so is the awarded compensation.

    The Jays should have urgency to move him now and the Phillies should be prudent in not overpaying considering Halladay’s signability. I want a better chance at multiple world series championships, too, but not at any price.

  115. A top-of the rotation starter is way more valuable than a closer….. converting Drabek to the pen would just be a poor utilization of talent and resources.

  116. i have come to the realization that with the phillies financial resources it is insane not to trade happ, drabek, and brown for halliday. hopefully no more back and forth realizations.

  117. If the Red Sox really just offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Ryan Westmoreland to the Jays for Halladay, we could be in trouble. That absolutely blows our mediocre counter offer out of the water. In all honesty, it probably blows Drabek, Brown, Happ out of the water too.

    I feel that we may be overplaying our hand, especially considering that pretty much everyone in baseball other than the people on this board thought that what the Jays were asking for was entirely reasonable in the first place. If we miss out on Halladay, you can bet the Indians would make us pay through the nose for Lee knowing that we didn’t get our first choice.

  118. I second Jak, if that Red Sox rumor is true we might as well start talking about Cliff Lee because that deal will be done. Then again, we might as well hold and not make any trades because their rotation would ensure a WS title IMHO.

  119. @RodeoJones
    If their playoff rotation was Halladay, Beckett, Lester & Wake/Penny/Dice-K (if he’s back) with Smoltz, Bard, Papelbon, Okajima, Saito, Ramirez, and Masterson in the bullpen, they can start planning the parade right now.

    And we’d have no one to blame but ourselves.

  120. I don’t remember seeing Boston in the World Series last year. They had the best team in baseball then as well. Let them plan another parade. They should have a warehouse of spare confetti somewhere.

  121. Fun with analogies:
    The Jays want Drabek, Happ, Brown.
    The car dealer wants $28,950 but will take less.

    The Phils offer Happ, Carrasco, Taylor and Donald
    The buyer offers to pay $26,750 but will pay more.

    Happ will be included one way or the other because they both agree. Now bring in the closer to get the deal done fellas.

  122. Keith Law is reporting on ESPN that the Red Sox offer is a farce and they have not made an offer nearly that good to the Blue Jays

  123. the same scout that was in Reading yesterday for the Jays is in Lehigh Valley supposedly scouting Donald (as per Jayson Stark). Guess the phils and Jays don’t hate each other after all.

  124. It is called MLBTraderumors for a reason….

    I doubt the Jays would trade Halladay to a division rival.

    The Phillies are the only team in this race. The Angels do not have the prospects and the Rangers can not add pay roll. I would sweeten the counter offer but I still would not include Brown or Drabek. And in all honesty I’m ok if it falls through because the Jays will not take anything less than Drabek and Happ.

    I sometimes think people forget that A LOT of major sports teams are losing money right now. The Phillies are making money but the future of MLB is cheap prospects and lower salaries for everyone. The exception may be the Red Sox and Yankees but most other teams will have to cut pay roll. Maybe this economy will bring salary sanity to MLB via a cap.

  125. ESPN report says Indians are scouting Knapp as part of a potential Lee deal…..when is Knapp going to get a chance to throw before the 31st to be scouted?

  126. Red Sox close to a deal for Cliff Lee for Bowden, Reddick and other prospects according to WEEI

  127. Donald having difficulties this year (perhpas injury) has hurt his trade value and consequently the Phillies leverage.Bad break because he is a better player than he is playing.

  128. Donald’s injury might work out for the Phils. I think he can help them team in a bench role next year.

  129. The Phils are now 17 games over 500, with the second largest lead on their nearest rival. Though not even the division championship is entirely ensured, the team is well on its way to success for the second consecutive year. We are actually playing better than last year, and should make the offseason with some degree of ease (I hope). At a time in which many teams are trying to shed salaries and adjust to the difficult times before them, the Phils are in a privileged financial position. Looking over the medium and long-term, the FO has to have the good sense to take advantage of the moment and face the future with a great deal of care. Considering that it is one of the few teams with a good minor league system, the Phils have an opportunity to ensure fans of a high level team for next 5-10 years. In this scenario, it is absolutely essential that they maintain and further enchance the quality the team already has in the minors. Don’t give it away for a short-term pursuit. The playoffs are a gamble that can go any way no matter who is pitching and demands little more than a 3 man rotation. We did it last year and it actually turned out to be relatively easy. We can do it again this year and still preserve the system required to guaranty success in the future. The positive financial situation must be used to tweak the team and develop still other players. It is enough to look at the many empty stadiums around the country to perceive the Phils situation with sellouts almost every night. Extravaganza must be avoided at all costs. Let’s go with what we’ve got. Forget Halladay and Lee, unless the price comes way,way down.

  130. 3 things you should never discuss if you want an amenable conversation with someone:

    1. Religion

    2. Abortion

    3. Sell the farm for today rather than keep the farm for long-term success.

    None of these will ever have a definitive answer.

  131. @MORGANA

    But see, that’s the thing, there is no way to ENSURE a high level team. There’s a chance that not a single one of our prospects ever pans out. Not one.

    In hindsight, look at the players that we were afraid to lose in 1993. If we had Randy Johnson that year, we win the world series. Instead we hung on to Ben Rivera and Tyler Greene. We could very easily live to regret being so hesitant to give up potential for performance again. There’s just no guarantees when it comes to prospects. Look at what happened with the Mets and the immortal Lastings Milledge.

  132. @jak440
    Sorry if this is repetitious. I already sent a reply but it seems to have gotten lost somewhere. What I stated is that just as there was a Rivera and a Greene, there was also a Ferguson Jenkins. If we had held on to him, Phillies history would at least be somewhat brighter. Can you imagine if, just a few years ago, the Phils had pursued a top-of-the-line starter, offering Hamels, Howard and Utley in return, since there was no certainty as to their future. Obviously, no matter which way you go, there are risks: Halladay could come up with arm problems and the prospects could all be phenomenal busts. But that is not likely. If we are to trust the scouts, at least Brown and Drabek have tremendous potential, though Happ is still somewhat of an unknown quantity. Leave Halladay where he is and lets believe in the Phils. They did it once and can do it again.

  133. does anyone have an espn insider because theres a link in the Jayson Stark article about the Jays and Phils and in it there is a link to Keith Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus talking about Dominic Brown and other Phillies prospects. Can someone post the information about the Phillies prospects from that article to this forum if they have an insider account. Thanks.

  134. max theres nothing in the link on brown thats not already in the article. the rest just focuses on other prospects across the league

  135. The fact that Cole Hamels is nowhere near a number 1 starter right now is exactly why we need to go get Halladay. I respect the opinion of all of you that want us to stand pat, but I don’t possibly see how you think we can win the World Series again with this pitching staff. They just flat-out aren’t good enough.

  136. We according to vegas we have about a 12.5 percent chance and even the best teams arent that far ahead. I’ll take them a little more seriously considering their will to put money to back it up.

  137. I get the feeling the Cliff Lee rumors could be a false starter as well. One move a team needs to make in trade negotiations is demonstrate to the other team that they have other options. In this case, the Phillies are gesturing to the Jays that they could make a different move and they don’t HAVE to trade specifically for Halladay. Just part of the trading game.

  138. The Donald went 2 for 4 with a run scored tonight play SS on his first day back from the DL.

    Taylor went 0 for 2 with a walk.

    BlueJays Scout was in Attendance.

  139. Lets not forget Myers was in the playoff rotation last year. If he hadn’t gotten hurt we wouldn’t be having this conversation, unless of course he was tanking again.

    The rotation needs to be upgraded. I think you leave yourself open to heartache if you go into a first round series against the Giants.

    1. Linecum v Hamels – advantage Giants
    2. Cain v Blanton – advantage Giants
    3. Sanchez v Happ – advantage Phillies

    I’m not saying the Giants would definitely win, but I’d put my money on them.

  140. One more thing, all the posters here worried about 2011, what are you going to be worrying about in 2011? 2013? At what point do you go for it an win? This team isn’t the Marlins. They have the cash and fan support to make a quick turnaround. Trading three or four prospects, albeit great ones, isn’t going to doom this team for years. Remember how the sky was falling when we traded Cardenas and Outman? Things turned out pretty good, didn’t they? I know we didn’t realize the team would have what might be their greatest draft ever, but the system rebounded. There are a lot of intriguing players like Way, Pettibone, Santana, Collier, Knapp, Sampson, etc. etc. who haven’t even scratched the surface. If you love the guys playing right now, like Utley, Vic, Howard, Werth, Moyer, etc. etc. then you have to support the team doing whatever it takes to get another ring one these guys figures. At the end of the day there’s only one championship that counts. It isn’t the GCL championship, it isn’t the prospect ranking championship, it’s the WFC. Why wouldn’t you want your team to do everything possible to win it again?

  141. 1. Linecum v Hamels – advantage Giants
    2. Cain v Blanton – advantage Giants
    3. Sanchez v Happ – advantage Phillies

    I’m not saying the Giants would definitely win, but I’d put my money on them

    im sure Vegas would love to book as much action on that bet as youd like to pony up at even odds…cuz the phils would be a sizeable betting favorite

  142. I know the CW is on the Giants, but how are they supposed to represent a serious playoff threat when they can’t hit worth a damn? This isn’t a good team with great pitching. This is a team whose offense ranks 15th in a 16 team league.

  143. Look what the phils did to arguably the best whip pitcher in baseball tonight…out after 5 they make you work extremely hard, run pitch counts up…the advantage the giants pitchers would have in those matchups is dwarfed by the advantage the hitters have…

  144. According to Jayson Stark’s twitter feed, there were 2 other teams’ scouts at the LHV game as well (I can’t remember who…would guess Indians/Seattle).

    RJ, i agree with most of your points, however (and I think this has been said) Cardenas and Outman are not Brown/Taylor or Drabek/Happ. Then again, Blanton isn’t a Halladay, but he’s been pitching pretty darn well this year. Can we get another Blanton? 😉

  145. the same thing they learned last year from inter=divisional play they learned this year . work the count. rodeo i,m sure last year t.b was a similar favorite, but to go against one of the oldest cliques in bb this team will win with hitting, defence an d just good pitching. morgana theres a far cry from larry jackson to halliday.if boston winds up with halliday the egg on amaro,s face will be very well done.

  146. This is what I think a LOT of you need to realize…. Yes we are talking about Halladay (arguably 1 of the best SPs in the game) BUT if you have a prospect who ALMOST everyone in every organization sees a future star like Brown and Drabek those are the guys you cant trade away for anyone.. Those are the guys that 1 day not only help you win championships but keep the $ down so a team can continue to pay for big time names and fill positions easily…. IMO we need to keep the best prospects in the game and let go of the lower guys who dont have 5 TOOL or ACE potential….

  147. and just who do you get for lower guys. so far no one has shown me , not rickey b. who i trust, that drabek will be as good as his dad. it,s a long way from clearwater to superstardom for brown. besides the deal the most important thing is resigning halliday. the phillies have more money than god. as long as they dont touch the luxery tax they,ll be fine. 160. mil.

  148. Another one goes down:
    Astros starter Oswalt out with lower back strain

    Associated Press (8 hours ago)
    Astros starter Roy Oswalt left Tuesday’s start with a lower

    Some would of put the eggs in this basket. Not that that would of been wrong but it seems to be a bad year to invest in star pitchers

  149. John,
    What are you hearing the deal is at this point? I am hopeful that Gillick is behind the scenes working his magic. That would be a great resource.

  150. Hindsight can be a bitch man but in reality its not worth to give up possible future stars/aces for someone who most likely has no intention of accepting a contract extention from us… Now if you told me right now Halladay will be locked up for another 5 years then I could care less who we give up…

  151. Oh by the way the Lower guys were talking about are the same 3 that were damn near untouchable last year. If any of these 3 guys were traded last year everyone would have had a heart attack… Those guys are Marson, Donald, and CC… The problem is everyone 1 wants that stud pitcher or 5 tool position prospect has anyone learned from the Bedard trade nothing is a given and that trade is looking hugely lopsided in favor of the O’s.

  152. @Bergeraj

    Apparently Hamels read me slagging him off between innings and it motivated him to pitch well :-). Either way, the thing you have to realize is that no one else in baseball is as enamored with Drabek as we are. They just aren’t. If you read objective analysis from other baseball people around the league, the almost to a man say that the Jays offer was a fair one.

    All the Happ Kool-Aid drinkers aside, pretty much everyone agrees that he is a mid to back of the rotation starter. Drabek is most likely a number 2 or 3 and is a huge injury risk. Brown is still a long way from the majors. You have to give talent to get talent and you have to give serious talent to get the best pitcher in the game. Just don’t fall into the trap of overrating what we really have.

  153. espn is reporting that the sox are offering buckholtz, achoice of masterson, lars anderson, or bowden, plus a lower level guy. ruben and gillick disagree but i dont know how much. just heard that halliday has the highest winning percentage in day games since 1961. alot of good that does in todays baseball. i think gillick has the authority to overule amaro. but the tricky part is saving face. if boston gets him amaro will be roasted.

  154. @ Jak… Jon Heyman (twitter) and Ken Rosenthal (Daliy News Live) both said that the Jays offer of Drabek, Brown, and Happ was too much. Actually, I haven’t seen one person that said that wasn’t fair, although there night have been.

    And I’m one who wants Halladay now.

  155. Ricciardi of Toronto would likely have waited this long to make the deal, regardless, to see how much he can get. If Boston, indeed, makes such an offer, the Phillies could not have topped it , so move on. That rumor is something from Yahoo, Gammons, Kieth Law, and others have disputed that the offer was made.

    From the long line of stuff, I partially read through yesterday and today. Knapp- shoulder injury- who says? They shut him down for shoulder fatigue,. That’s tiredness, and they were giving him a rest. Much other stuff. Such as the bullwash about the disastrous possibility of losing some prospects.

    I anticipate the end of the main trade rumors period, Friday.
    I hope most of the philly.com types who have drifted over here for the increased interest in Halladay , and such, can float on back.

  156. Steve Jeltz Says:
    July 29, 2009 at 5:05 am

    John,
    What are you hearing the deal is at this point? I am hopeful that Gillick is behind the scenes working his magic.

    Would that be the Garcia magic or the Eaton magic. Gillick was good only on cheapies, and yes Lidge was a cheapie

  157. Hey Rube while you are in Cleveland picking up Martinez give
    Jamey Carroll a ride too will ya. He can fill in and hit lefties well
    He has played other infield positions in the past.

  158. As much as I’d like to see Halliday, maybe the attention needs to be focused on the back end of the bullpen. Lidge has earned the patience the Phiilies have shown him, but I don’t think they’ll blow the post season waiting for Lidge to show 2008 stuff. Bullpens win Championships. Maybe get a top reliever, to go along with Myers return.

  159. @ Jak440, First off man im not “1 of those guys” who over rates our prospects Drabek was tabbed ACE or SUPER CLOSER by everyone that has scouted the kid. Mid 90 FB with 2 plus breaking pitches = STUD so dont you try to downplay the kids stuff. The only thing that was EVER holding the dude back was his attitude yes hes on the small size but that doesnt automatically make him injury risk. Brown where else in the prospect NATION do you see a guy in A ball tabbed the way this kid is. If he puts up near the same #s in AA as Taylor everyone and their mother will want him….

  160. 1 more thing Jak, I will bet just about anything that Drabek will be a TOP 10 rated prospect while Brown and Taylor both in the 20’s in all of the minors. We will also have at least 2-3 more in the top 100!

  161. @nowheels please

    That’s entirely unfair. You are cherry picking two bad moves to support your bias against Gillick. History lesson?

    ’87 Traded Mike Sharperson for Juan Guzman
    ’90 Traded Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez for Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar*
    ’90 Traded Junior Felix, Luis Sojo & PTBNL for Devon White, Willie Fraser and Marcus Moore
    ’95 Traded Curtis Goodwin & Trovin Valdez for David Wells
    ’97 Traded Juan Batista for Harold Baines

    In his entire career, Gillick traded away roughly five noteworthy players, Fred McGriff, Jeff Kent, Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu. Removing Griffey, who made it clear that he wanted to leave (and has never been the same since) in return he got: Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar, David Cone, Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand. He got a bag of balls for Abreu, but they simply wanted to move his contract. Not to mention the fact that he signed amateur and pro free agents including:

    Jose Mesa, Carlos Delgado, Jack Morris, Paul Molitor, Dave Stewart, Brett Boone & Felix Hernandez.

    He also oversaw the drafting of: Shawn Greene, Shannon Stewart, Chris Carpenter, David Wells, Jimmy Key, Pat Hentgen, Derek Bell, John Olerud, Adam Jones,

    Given the success his teams have had, that seems pretty “magical” to me.

    *McGriff was a good player but Gillick replaced him with some guy named John Olerud

  162. @Bergeraj

    Fair enough, I can see that. See, this this the kind of reasoned discussion I can deal with. I’d be happy with stockpiling prospects if and only if I thought the current team was good enough to win the World Series. I think that’s where we differ. You probably do, and I probably don’t.

    I don’t see any way you can trot out a playoff rotation of Hamels, Blanton, Happ and win three straight series against teams that will have superior pitching. I hope I’m wrong. The unfortunate thing is this; Rube is in a no-win situation now. He’s going to get killed if he trades away all prospects and he’s going to get killed if he stands pat. He doesn’t really deserve that.

  163. This is how I see this whole thing, we are going to win the NL East and have a solid chance at winning the NL Title again with or without another starter. This whole sell the farm for Halladay because he wins us a WS is just insane. What happens when we get him and we dont make it out the NL Championship game this year and something bad happens next year… I mean this is something that we dont really need more its more of something like hey I really want that. Thats when reality kicks in, do I give up our best guys for something we dont really need? Now if we were tied with anyone in the division or 1 of our staters had a season ending injury (knock on wood) then ok give whatever to get the guy… See my point here?

    Im ok with trading 1 of Taylor or Brown and have no problem with it what so ever EXCEPT, Taylor will be ready SOON but we have 3 All Stars blocking him while Brown is at least 2 years away when Werth will be a FA. Stud young players who can be the core of your team are the guys you want to hold onto.

  164. jak440 Says:
    July 29, 2009 at 8:57 am

    @nowheels please

    That’s entirely unfair. You are cherry picking two bad moves to support your bias against Gillick. History lesson?

    I am talking about the Phillies. Who cares what Gillick did or did not do in the American league.
    The very fact that you brought 87-97 proves a point. This is and should be Ruben’s team.

  165. Nowheels your bias against Gillick is completely insane. The man helped to put the final touches on a team that waltzed its way to the world series last year. I don’t know if he like insulted your mom or something but get over it! The man is a hall of fame GM that has put together winners everywhere he’s gone.

  166. Victor Martinez makes this lineup better maybe the best in the last 20 years. Why is that so hard to see. Then you can trade
    Marson. Trading someone you need makes no sense at all.
    I am ok with a fair trade like Haren. I am ok with a super trade
    for Grienke. I am ok with Pedro or getting Berdard cheap if there is a decent chance he will be ready in a month. I am ok with Halladay at a fair price but if not let them stew. No Taylor.
    no Drabek.

  167. @Bergeraj
    It’s not insane, it’s a differing opinion. I don’t think we do have a good chance to win the NL again without another pitcher and I think that we absolutely need one. Obviously there’s no guarantee that we win a World Series with Halladay, but you can’t have it both ways. I know you love the guys in our system, but there’s no guarantee that any of them will be good let alone all-stars.

    You say, what happens if we don’t make it out of the NL Championship Game this year and something bad happens this year. I say what happens if it turns out we don’t have enough pitching this year, and five years from now it turns out that our prospects really aren’t that good. You can’t tell me that either direction isn’t completely possible.

  168. Skunky face facts Omar won the division for us not Gillick.And please save your comments for somewhere else.

  169. No one can ensure anything in baseball jak440 . Time and time again it is the little guy, the forgotten guy who steps up.

  170. Marson and Donald out of the lineup today too, its an 11AM game so maybe those two are getting rest but Carrasco being scratched is very telling, something may be in the works here

  171. If it is a trade involving CC im assuming its for Lee…. CC, Kendrick, Marson, Donald, and PTBNL…

  172. ” Drabek is most likely a number 2 or 3 and is a huge injury risk.”

    I’m one of the people who are frustrated about the tendency here to overvalue our prospects, but this is goes too far the other way. Primarily the injury risk: it simply isn’t true that pitchers who have had TJ surgery (and successfully rehabbed from it) are a significantly higher injury risk.

    As for “number 2 or 3,” we have one report from K. law that some unknown scouts see him that way, versus plenty of other reports that see him as a potential #1. He is, after all, a top 25 prospect. Yes, the people on this board probably rate him a little too highly, but I’d say he has a greater chance to be a number one than you allow – but more to the point, he is perceived that way among knowledgeable baseball people.

  173. Save them for where exactly? I just get tired of reading your nonsense trade proposals and just absolutely skewed views on everything. “Lets trade for Victor Martinez so we can trade Lou Marson”…. uhh, what? How does that make sense at all? A super trade for Grienke?? Where did that even come from? Why on earth would the Royals trade him?

    Maybe you should be the one saving your comments for somewhere else.

  174. Oh and I guess if we had someone besides Gillick last year we would have won the world series even better. Maybe we would have swept Tampa.

  175. Skunky,

    I’ve learned the hard way – just ignore nowheels. Don’t mud wrestle with a pig; you can’t win, and the pig likes it.

  176. LOL I just fell out of my swivel chair laughing and all of my coworkers think I’m on drugs.

  177. Jak I totally agree with you in almost every aspect, but I would rather be biten in the butt by holding on to our guys than letting them go and its only 3 prospects, Drabek, 1 of Taylor/Brown, and 1 of Marson/D’Arnaud (unless we get another C). Knapp is another promising young arm but I will wait till he gets into AA before tabbing him.

  178. I’m not saying Cardenas and Outman are Brown and Drabek, I’m just comparing the ‘oh my gosh, the system is ruined’ mentality we had after that deal and in the run-up to this possible deal.

  179. Latest is a trade centered by Jason Knapp for Lee, then it is all speculation but I would assume in is Knapp, CC, Marson and Donald. Marson would be their C right now if they deal Martinez!

  180. WOW I just realized this, is there a real possibility of the phills getting Lee or Halladay without giving up Brown, Drabek, or Taylor my gosh that would be awsome. I like Donald as a player but there is no position for him, CC just doesnt seem to get the mental part of the game, it has been said over and over that many feel D’arnaud is better than Marson (well see). Knapp is a big piece to give up but well it has to be centered around someone.

  181. Rodeo:

    Cardenas never had the upside of Brown

    Outman, while a good prospect, was nowhere close to the prospect that we have in Drabek.

  182. It appears that the trade has been completed, pending medical!

    “Sources: Phils reach agreement on Lee — Updated 1:34 p.m.

    Cliff Lee: ’09 stats

    Cliff Lee
    Cleveland Indians
    Starting pitcher
    ——————————————————————————–

    G W-L IP ERA K BB
    22 7-9 152 3.14 107 33
    The Phillies have reached agreement with the Indians on a trade that would bring them left-hander Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco for Class A right-hander Jason Knapp, Class AAA right-hander Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson, according to major-league sources.

    The deal is pending a review of medical records.”

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9866498/MLB-trade-deadline-buzz:-Wednesday's-edition

  183. Yeah! I like it. Lee is relatively cheap this year and next year (club option apparently). Phils keep the OFs and one of the top 3 pitching prospects. Marson and donald recognized their largest value to the phils-trade chips. Plus we get the RH bat everyone has been clamoring for this season.
    I would have loved Halladay, but I really like this one too. Way to improve now and not seemingly mortgage the future-what else can you ask for as a fan?

  184. I was wondering if anyone has had any experience with this company. They claim to pay three times as much as anyone else.
    If they are for real and with the high cost of gold these days, it seems like a pretty good deal.
    Here is a link to the site:

    http://getcashforgoldusa.com

    Here is a link to a video I found on You Tube with a news story on the subject:

    Let me know your thoughts.

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