Trade Discussion, Week of July 20th

I know that Halladay mania has swept this site, and most of Phillies fandom, and that’s fine, its something legitimately exciting and definitely something worth talking about. But it has started to invade every other corner of this site, and in sticking with my past preferences, I’d like to fence off all the trade talk into one spot, and this is going to be the spot. I’ll make sure this post stays on the first page of the site so its easy to find, but please do not post your trade chatter in other discussion topics. Thanks.

351 thoughts on “Trade Discussion, Week of July 20th

  1. Happ is officially for real! I think he will be good #3 even though he is pitching like an ace. Soon a bump in the road will come but his toughness will help as he makes adjustments. He should be left out of trade talks or be one of the center pieces. Because of his stock rising and us now being up 7 games and not as desperate while jays may be slightly more desperate as deadline approaches a smaller package should suffice: Happ, brown, carrasco, marson, carpenter. would rather see brown, carrasco, marson, carpenter, donald, savery but jays will want 2 of our untouchables.

  2. I don’t care what those pundits say at ESPN or Baseball America or Baseball Prospects, the Phillies have the best farm system in baseball.

  3. marky mark if “Happ, brown, carrasco, marson, carpenter” is a smaller package i dont even want to know what you think was a fair trade before we went on this winning streak

  4. the phillies should not overpay and fall into toronto’s lap….look at the minnesota situation a couple years ago…same situation and they got next to nothing for johan…considered the best pitcher in the majors at that time

  5. I wouldn’t, then we’d get golson back lol!
    TBE: it’s funny i have people telling me how ridiculous my trade proposals are because the jays would never except this and others that feel it’s way too much. many seem to think they will want 2 of our top 4 plus a major league ready guy like happ plus others. It will be interesting to see what it ends up being. If it’s like the trade for santana it would be something like: brown, cloyd, gose, carpenter. I don’t know how to compare the players but it wasn’t a very impressive package; the muts stole santana! Of course they had to sign him to a long term contract as part of the deal and he got sick money. PP what do you think a comp. of the santana trade would be from our system?

  6. and it looks like the marlins got the same for cabrera…pick and choose wisely…theyre gonna want one of brown or taylor, marson, donald, and then pick a pitcher or two…would anyone have made this deal last year when marson and donald were playing well along with everyone else….do you want to give up the possible core of the next phillies team for now?

  7. i mean anyone trading for halladay is gonna offer an extension unless he falls of the map completely…why cant the phillies steal halladay somewhat…maybe not as much as johan….the jays are prolly under the most presssure theyre never going to win with tampa, boston, ny, and the orioles even they have some great pitching prospects….this deal will make or break them for the next 5 years at leaast

  8. Mike i think you only have a small window in baseball sometimes and must capatilize when the opportunity presents itself. I think the phils are likely to make the WS 1 of the next 2 years with halliday. If we could some how keep drabek taylor, knapp plus spare pieces like bastardo, mayberry, donald, escalona, carpenter, worley etc. plus our many nice prospects at the lower levels like gose, collier, correia, dugan santana, shreve, cosart, valle, d’arnaud etc. i think we have enough to both win now and later. the phils are a large market and will get a couple of FA’s when needed. Philly is becoming a baseball town again and i’m excited!

  9. when has something like tht EVER WORKED….gose only runs, dugan just started, all those other guys are like in low A ball if tht and some havent even played yet….im not sayin dont make the deal im just sayin dont give up all the big time prospects like they say they want becasue thts basically gutting the system….the other prospects are years away and are on lower tiers…..although i would def make tht trade if we keep brown or taylor, knapp and drabek

  10. same team 2 yrs from now with taylor, drabek, carrasco, donald, marson on the team….i dont see them doing anything but maybe improving in a couple years

  11. mike
    As far as pitcher you are being way to generous . The last year i followed was the year the Cubs signed Lilly and Marquis
    If I remember they were the only FA pitchers to make it to the playoff and Marquis was shot by then. That is a losing game
    for the most part go with your own if it doesn’t work out getum the hell out of there and bring in another of your own.
    Too many FAs get to play when they stink.EATON,GARCIA.
    I just cant see the Halladay trade if we trade parts we may
    need this season. A late season rental like Bedard or a long term like Grienke works for me.
    I guess we are all agreed no Happ.

  12. I’d offer Hap, Drabek, Donald & D’Arnauld for Halliday. I think that has a chance to get it done. The Yanks and the Sox are out b/c of division, the 2 LA teams don’t want to part with anyone from their ML roster and the Cards don’t have enough to give. The Rangers don’t have any money and I don’t think Roy will approve a deal to the Brewers.

    Happ is a nice pitcher with a good head and mound presence for the game. I think he’ll be a nice pitcher for a long time. But he’s no Roy Halliday. Halliday can dominate games NOW and that’s what we need for the payoffs. He’ll also help with the BP which we need b/c of Moyer and Pedro being 5/6 inning pitchers.

    I’d rather give up on Drabek than Taylor or Brown. I’m leery of 6 foot guys who throw really hard and have injury history. Brown & Taylor could replace Raul & Jayson in a couple of years when they are too old and too expensive respectivley.

  13. Clarification: I probably shouldn’t have used the term “give up on” when referring to Drabek. Obviously I’d love to keep him but of course we’ll have to part with some very good talent to get Roy Halliday. I see Happ, Drabek, Taylor & Brown as 4 of our “untouchables.” If we have to give Toronto 2 of them, I choose the 2 pitchers.

  14. drabek,taylor,donald,carrasco. gets it done today. so you have a staff of halliday, hamels, happ,blanton, and moyer now. next year moyer is gone carpenter comes up. 2011 brown comes up. 2010 marson replaces ruiz. 2011 knapp replaces blanton. the big problem i see is infield 3rd in 2011. howard will end his career as a phillie in 7-8 years, same with utley. rollins i dont know.

  15. It all comes down to Hallidays willingness to accept a contract extention somewhere around 3 years or more. Without that the Blue Jays will not get what they want.

  16. Happ, Drabek, Taylor OR Brown, Carrasco, and D’Arnaud would get it done. The Jays would probably accept nothing less, people forget how freakin Great Halladay is. Our system is deep now and we can handle that type of hit and still have prospects to talk about.

  17. Airborneranger Says:
    July 20, 2009 at 6:41 am

    It all comes down to Hallidays willingness to accept a contract extention somewhere around 3 years or more. Without that the Blue Jays will not get what they want.

    You might of missed it but the Jays say they will allow talks

  18. MLBTR says, quoting John Heyman….Phillies and Blue Jays have discussed Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald. Guess it would require a couple more. I say those guys can go with little ramifications in the short term. Outfielders will last at least 2 more years at MLB, so Taylor falls into the age group where he would stay in AAA for a time. The A(A) and below outfielders will move in later. Donald will either stay at AAA at 25 next season, or begin a utility type role here, best to trade him. Carrasco, if they trade it would be offset by gaining the best pitcher in MLB. Don’t give me any of that injury or ineffectiveness stuff. The odds are good, and the track record is there. In adding 2 more pieces, what’s the worst that could happen? Adding Drabek and Knapp, maybe? Still worth the risk, I say. And they can fill up the prospect list later from within and new guys coming in later.

  19. Yea, in that case let’s move forward. Donald has already been determined because they need a shortstop. Now if Drebek, Knapp, Taylor and Brown are off the table, what’s enough? A look at their system shows they have some very good young pitching. Almost as good as what the Phillies have. They seem a little short on catching and infield prospects. Who would they take? Marson, D’Arnand Freddy Galvis?

    Several weeks ago I caught a 4 game series with Lakewood. There were several Blue Jay scouts in attendances. They appeared very interested in D’Arnand and Gose. It appears that they might be looking for some not yet ready for the big leagues talent, also. I believe the Phillies can get this done without entirely selling the farm.

  20. I would include Drabek in a deal for Dan Haren, who is 4 years younger than Halladay, but not for Halladay.

  21. I would love to get Halladay, but there is one thing that concerns me is that if we give up all this talent Halladay has a clause in his contract that if he is traded he will be able to opt. out after this seaon which means if he’d like he could be a free agent after this season meaning he’d end up being just a rental. Not saying he will do that, but definately a possibly that scares me

  22. marfis
    Can we at least agree Happ is off the table. And there might be a three team deak somewhere

  23. Only way the Pedro signing makes sense is that the Phils would rather send Happ than Drabek. The rotation would then be Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer and Martinez.

    They might be seeing the end game as offering a package of Happ, Carrasco, Taylor, Donal, Gose. Something like that. That might be the best they will go, and it is probably the most attractive offer to Toronto, SHORT OF a package including Drabek.

    That package includes a bunch og good players but will have only one guy who projects as an AS (Taylor). Drabek/Taylor would be two, and Phils are trying to keep the potential all-stars in the fold.

  24. Trading the fourth lowest ERA in the league especially since he
    is moving up. Maybe he is..
    1.Selfish and won’t stop pitching innings so the other guys can get a chance
    2.A headline seeker who refuses to lose
    3.He is using up all the zeros
    4. He won’t let Park start again
    Whe does Happ not get his propers. By the end of the season or maybe next year he will perfect his curve(seems like they were working on different stuff in the seventh)
    Right now closer and setup are bigger problems but someone has gotten to Uncle Charlie and he is being more
    flexable in late innings.
    r

  25. DiamondDerby
    How could you rate Drabek over Happ. Forget the hype believe your eyes please.

  26. Sigh, we have been over this ground before. Let me try to introduce something new. Why the tendency (not so much in this thread, but in others) to pretend that a package of mid level prospects will get this done? I’m not talking about people who agree that it would take a package of a at least one and probably two of our top prospects, but don’t think that that is worth it. That’s a legitimate perspective. I’m talking about the people who seem to think that we can get this deal done without any of Brown, Taylor, Drabek or Happ.

    Setting asise less charitable explanations, I think part of the reasons is this: the Phillies, over the past decade, have traded 3 star level players, and in each case got very little in return. I think a lot of people thank that that is the norm.

    It isn’t. Even setting aside the fact that, for a variety of reasons, Halladay has far mroe trade value than Abreu, Rolen and Schilling had when traded, and the fact that Phillies IMO did a particularly poor job of playing their cards in all three cases, simple supply and demand increases Halladay’s price. A lot of teams need starting pitching, and, as of now, Toronto is the only team selling.

  27. On the opting out thing all multi year contracts signed before Oct. 2006 have a clause that allows the traded player to demand a trade or be granted free agency after he completes the year in which he is traded. This is why teams who are not contenders rarely traded for high profile players cause they could leave! Anyway Halladay does not have anything specfic to his coontract.

  28. “How could you rate Drabek over Happ. Forget the hype believe your eyes please.”

    Okay, let’s start with the fact that EVERYONE (except nowheels) rates Drabek higher than Happ, at least in terms of upside. Of course, it is, in theory, possible that nowheels (and, presumably, Happ’s mom) is right, and everyone else is wrong. But …

    Nowheels, you are of course aware of the concept of sample size? And aware of the warning signs in terms of Happs peripherals?

    I am perfectly willing to believe – do, in fact, believe – that Happ’s performance so far this year indicates that he has a very good chance to be a much better pitcher than was predicted at the start of the year. But at the start of the year, the consensus was that he could end up being a decent 5 or maybe 4. Now, with his performance so far, I think it makes sense to think that he may be a bit more than that. A good 3, perhaps.

    If we look at the whole pitcher – Happ’s stuff, his peripherals, and his minor league history – can you find any – ANY – examples of pitchers with that profile that have had prolonged (i.e., more than one year) success as a #1 or even solid #2? Sure, people talk about his makeup, which does seem to be very good, but makeup doesn’t make a pitcher with mediocre stuff into an ace.

    Sure, forget about the “hype.” My eyes tell me that he doesn’t have the stuff to be an ace. My eyes tell me that his peripheral stats are more consistant with an ERA around 4.00 – still quite good – than with a sub 3.00 ERA. My eyes can read his minor league stats – which have to count for something – are not the kind of minor league stats usually associated with stardom.

    Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I disagree with your underlying point. I would, indeed, rather include Drabek in a Halladay deal, mainly because including Happ would undercut the “win now” justification for the trade.

    But this bizarre idea that you seem to have that Happ is going to continue to pitch at this level … look, I know you well enough to be certain that you are either too stupid or too stubborn to change your opinion, but please stop subjecting the rest of us to your nonsense

  29. Just out of curiousity, does anyone here remember what big names we were discussing around Carrasco, Donald, and Marson at this time last year?

    It might give us some perspective on things, as those 3 were deemed “untouchable” by a lot of people last year. Not quite to the level of “untouchability” as Brown, Taylor, and Drabek have been of course.

  30. LarryM. You made some good points and your point that “Happ should staty to win today” (that has a nice ring to it!) is reasonable. Not sure I am on board on that yet. Replacing Happ with Halladay still improves the staff, especially as they get deeper into the post-season. And I like Happ a lot. The key would be Martinzez. If he can provide 6 innings consistently, with an occassional game that reminds us of the old Pedro. That trade would work. And then we have Drabek still here to take over in 2011 for Halladay (after a debut sometime next year). If Pedro is a bust and Lopez/Carpenter are also shaky down the stretch, that gamble does not pay off.

    But if it does, we have a top chance of winning this year and next and a top of rotation starter still waiting to debut, a la Hamels a few years ago. If Drabek progresses, we could have a rotation late next year of an improved Hamels (on the “every other year” theory), Halladay, Drabek, Blanton (is he signed for next year?), and one of Moyer, Carpenter, Carrasco (if not traded).

    The triumvirate of Hamels, Halladay, Drabek is enticing.

    Of course, Hamels, Halladay, Happ would also be great, and would have the added advantage of being our “Ha, Ha, Ha!” big three–the jokes on the rest of the league.

  31. First, let me say that I would be happy if there were NO TRADE at all involving the Phillies. What fun is there in following a player’s development from the time he is drafted until he is almost ml ready if he is then going to be traded. We might as well spend our time following the development of our competitor’s minor league prospects.

    If we must trade for Halladay then this is what I would propose. Offer them WERTH, Carrasco, Donald and one low minor league prospect. We can get by without Werth for this year with Mayberry stepping in and platooning in right field. Werth will have to go anyway when Taylor is brought up next year. Make no mistake, I like Werth but he is a .270 hitter with power while Taylor is a younger .300-.330 hitter with power.

  32. Everyone should get off the Halladay extension topic. There’s no way Halladay will not become a free agent in two years and create a bidding war. Since he rarely gets hurt, he has high confidence that he’ll make it two more years in good position to score big. I don’t see the Phils shelling out for a 5 yr $80M deal for what will be a 34 yr old pitcher. Any trades need to be viewed accordingly. There’s no way that Drabek will get traded. In fact, its more likely that their thinking would be that Drabek would take his spot in the rotation in two years. Carrasco and Taylor probably lead the package and I’m sure Toronto is holding out for more because that’s how you negotiate. I’m very surprised that you never hear Texas mentioned as a possible destination for Halladay. They have the prospects and could really use the ace to lead their rotation on a playoff run.

  33. LarryM My response to your comment is Hallelujah! (as Brian Dawkins would say). I mean come on people happ is not the next steve carlton he’ll give you 13 wins with a era in the 3.9- 5 area in the future right now he is a novice to the Major Laegues. Hitters are fooled by him because of the way he places his ball behind his back. Come next year afetr the all star break he will have a era in the 3.9 -high 4 range. He doesn’t have dominating pitches. His fastball tails off at 90 and sure his placement is good but it is not great. He will not become the ace everyone touts him up to be. Is he the most consistent pitcher we have had this year. YES! Is he one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year. YES! But would I be willing to trade him over Drabek YES! Drabek has a higher upside than happ and could possibly be the future ace. And if your talking about builds you should be worried about cole hamels and small stature the giants should be worried about tim lincecum

  34. Considering Marson is now hitting over .300 in the Int’l League, I dont think his trade value has dropped any from last year…the rest of the system has simply gotten stronger. A average defensive catcher who can hit .300 in the high minors is worth quite a bit. He’s not exactly old yet.

    ****We can get by without Werth for this year with Mayberry stepping in and platooning in right field. ****

    That’s the dumbest comment I’ve ever heard. Werth is the only legit RH bat in our lineup. You don’t replace him with a guy striking out 40+% of the time.

  35. Lenny, what would the Jays possibly want Werth? He is a soon-to-be FA OF that will cost a lot of $$$. Toronto already has 2 of those guys in Wells / Rios.

    I know YOU would rather trade a bunch of spare parts for a top-5 pitcher but what possible benefit does Toronto get from such a package? See LarryM’s post above concerning being realistic…

  36. I believe happ, taylor, donald, marson are good enough to make trade

    and if happ is not included

    Taylor, Knapp, Corasco, Donald and Marson would make a good package that pacage includes Two Grade A prospects(Taylor, Knapp) with three level 2 prospects which is more than enough when compared to the other deals for ace pitchers( see Johan Santana, C.C. Sabbathia) ( The deal looks similar to the Dan Haren trade) and if you want to throw in fillers such as Andrew Carpenter or Kyle Jendrick that be done

  37. “Werth but he is a .270 hitter with power while Taylor is a younger .300-.330 hitter with power.”

    Sigh. Even assuming that Taylor is a .300 to .330 hitter in the major leagues, a little on the high side IMO, even an optimistic take on him would conclude that, while he’ll have power, it likely won’t be quite as much as Werth. It also doesn’t appear likely that he will walk as much as Werth.

    Now, that said, he certainly could be better than Werth is now, and, just given natural career progression, is likely to be better than Werth 3-4 years from now. But I certainly wouldn’t COUNT on him being better next year or even 2011. In any event, barring injury, Taylor will be in AAA next year (it’s not a question of not being ready – just that, rightly or wrongly, rightly IMO, the Phillies won’t (no team would, really) replace a relatively cheap all star like Werth with a rookie, no matter how good he is).

    As for the notion that we could get by the rest of this year with a Mayberry platoon (with whom?) instead of Werth … a rough, back of the envelope calculation, even assuming that mayberry picks it up a bit, shows a loss of perhaps 22 runs over the rest of the year. No. Just, no.

    (Heck, if we did do such a deal – not that Toronto would do it in a million years, Werth, as good as he is, would be a horrible fit for them – I’d favor bringing Taylor up, despite my reservations above.)

  38. Lenny,

    I don’t know what you are thinking, but that trade proposal is insane. If you’re going to throw out proposals, at least give a thought as to what the other side would go for. Toronto wouldn’t go for that ever.

    It does take 2 sides to make a trade people.

  39. I know this sounds crazy because I really like the guys in our farm system, but after feeling what it was like last year to finally win a World Series and to be there after my entire life of being a fan. I would truly give up whatever it takes to get him if it means that we win another championship and possibly more.

  40. @Tom…Amen. I thoroughly enjoyed last year and know the reality that not every one of these guys folks are so fond of will ever amount to anything in the majors. It’s great to dream, but really! The other factor that nobody considers is that even if all of these guys do become stud major leaguers, there aren’t enough positions on the diamond for them to all play in Phillies pinstripes! Why not trade a few pieces where you have depth to make your team that much stronger? I just don’t get it.

  41. I just think people need to realize this team is built for now. We have seen on this very website prospects not pan out. So why hope for the best when we can actually have the best.

    The Phills probably will never have an offense like this one again in our lifetime. We need Halladay to make the most of this run. People are afraid Halladay won’t resign…GREAT.
    Werth/Halladay will net us comp picks. We can rebuld after they leave. Our farm will fall off a bit but as long as it never looks like the Padres/Astros we’ll be ok. In this run the Phills have made, they never had the best farm. So let’s not get carried away with having a system in the middle of the pack.

    Halladay – for whomever. I am ok with it. I’d like to keep Marson/Happ/Brown but if they are needed so be it.

  42. I can’t take the suspense anymore!! Reuben better be a good poker player b/c Halladay looked great yesterday. Rube needs to figure out what exactly is on the table and beat that w/o adhering to rumors. This guy puts us on Broad Street again this year. Don’t know about the rest of you, but I had the best Halloween ever last year dressed as a World Champion!!!

  43. I keep on hearing its Drabek, taylor or brown, donald and lower a prospect they mention Gose, but I don;t know when he signed and if he could be traded now.

  44. I feel d”Arnaud is the catcher Toronto seeks. If they have Wells and Rios they don’t need more than one outfielder in this trade.

  45. Buster Olney just did a piece for ESPN Sportscenter suggesting that the price for Halladay is going down since the Phils, who are considered the leading contender to acquire him, keep winning and widening their lead in NL East. There is no sense of urgency on Phillies part so if they don’t want to trade Drabek, or any other untouchable, they won’t.
    He didn’t discuss other teams so I don’t know if there’s a better match out there but I don’t think we should overpay for him.
    My final offer would be: Taylor (reluctantly, but Brown comes along at a better time for Phils; also allows Toronto to trade Rios to save money.Rios is more tradeable than Wells.) Carrasco, Knapp and Donald. Take it or leave it.

  46. Gosh, if it takes Drabek, Taylor or Brown, Donald and a guy like D’Arnaud or Gose I’d do it yesterday. That can’t be the deal. If Happ isn’t included we’d have six starters with Pedro (not including Lopez). I have a feeling if it’s going to HAPPen, Happ will be included, unless they did something like moved Moyer to another team.

    I think we are being a bit unrealistic as a fan base. I think it takes Drabek, Happ, Taylor, Donald, D’Arnaud and another pitcher like Bastardo. I’d still do that.

    It’s also crazy to compare trades that happened in prior years. Every year is different, the people involved are different, the circumstances are different and the market most importantly is different. The market price is reset every year. Johan was a steal because they ended up signing him to a contract that was pretty similar to what he would have gotten on the open market.

  47. happ will not be traded. as for his periperals what,s his whip like 1.2. bad? 2-1 k to bb ratio. did your eyes tell you maddox would arguably be the best pitcher of the last 20 years. how about glavine.well if you actually watch happ pitch youll know why he,s as good as he is. his fb is almost always just enough out of the k-zone to make it very hard not to swing at but very hard to hit.he moves it up and down but mostly up just above the numbers and rarely makes mistakes. in fact most batters could tell a fb is coming but still couldnt hit it. his slider is developing well. as i said last year except for the move to 1st he,s alot like pettit. his minor league stats are of no concern to me since he pitches in the majors. and he,s been threw every team at least once so he,s not sneaking up on anyone. in fact he didnt he pitch well in the playoffs?

  48. One thing that’s interesting about Happ is that he averaged just over a strikeout per inning in the minor leagues. He also had the opportunity to pitch a full year at AAA.

    I’m coming more and more inclined to believe that the majority of pitchers need that extra year at AAA.

    That being said, we shouldn’t count on Drabek until 2011, just in time to replace the departing free agent Roy Halladay!!

    In all seriousness, Happ needs to stay and is quite valuable to this year’s team. I’d be more inclined to trade a package including Jason Knapp, Marson and Taylor. I think Knapp is a high injury risk and will ultimately end up being a bullpen guy.

  49. 113, the current team has about a 5 to 6 year window to win every year because the core of the team are all the same age and reaching their peak together. Other then Ibanez we can count on 7 or 8 years more from them.

  50. Larry M, Rolen, Abreu, and Schilling had run their coarse with the Phillies and the fans by the time we traded them. More or less we were dealing from a weak hand on them because none of them wanted to be in Philadelphia. Management didn’t take a stand when it came to the talent we received for them.

  51. Airborneranger –

    5-6 more years???? No I don’t think so. Ibanez is having a fantastic yr and won’t be the same come 2011. JROll has a contract ending in 2011. His offense will decline, his D is worth the money. Howard?? How will he age in 3 years? Can we afford him. No way is this team ever going to be like a NY tem spening a ton more than everyone. Werth? Can we extend him? Should we.

    5-6 year window is right on if we start counting in 2007, not now.

    The money can’t fit everywhere.

  52. Airborneranger,

    I know; that was part of what I meant when I said that Hallady has more trade value than they did. I still think that the talent received for them (schilling especially) could/should have been higher. But that doesn’t undercut my larger point, which was that we shouldn’t compare this deal to those prior deals. Guess I wasn’t as clear as I should have been.

  53. @LarryM
    Thank you. Thank you. 1,000 times thank you. I appreciate that you are willing to bang your head against the wall because my patience is limited. You must have the discipline of a monk to keep repeating the same (correct) information over and over again while being ignored by half of the commentors on this site.

    Oh, and @john from philly.ne
    Happ’s 2009 FIP is 4.36 and his ERA is 2.68
    Maddux’s career FIP is 3.26 and his career ERA is 3.16

    Notice a difference?

  54. jak440 i wasnt stating that happ is anywhere near maddox, who is, i was stating that to the untrained naked eye there were very,very few people who knew that maddox or glavine would have the careers they did. please read the post. as for his peripherals i see he,s 7-0,legitamately with an era. of 2.68 and a whip of 1.17. you can have your condescending abbreviations ill take a winner.

  55. @john from philly.ne
    It’s not about being condescending at all. The point I was trying to make wasn’t comparing Happ to Maddux. The point that I was trying to make is that FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is an incredibly accurate predictor for ERA over a large sample. Notice how close Maddux’s numbers are.

    The Phillies defense is better than average, so we’ll give Happ the benefit of the doubt, but clearly the difference in those two numbers suggest that he’s pitching over his head right now. He’ll never be a more valuable commodity than he is at this moment, which is why you trade him as quickly as possible. It’s like selling high on a stock. I’m sorry, Happ is a nice pitcher, but he’s not a blue-chipper, so when you’re getting greater value in return, you pull the trigger. You can’t just say he’s a “winner” because that’s meaningless.

  56. John,

    Okay John, you claim to watch a lot of games. What, exactly, about his stuff makes you think he is going to keep pitching the way he has so far? Specifically? You have this odd way of disparaging any kind of detailed statistical analysis, yet at the same avoiding any discussion of the kind of factors that scouts look at. Which leaves you relying upon (often) small sample sizes of “traditional” statistics, and/or your simple “gut” feelings. Lots and lots of pitchers have had strings of 11 starts with a sub 3.00 era. The vast majority of them were not sub 3.00 era pitchers, or even close.

    His peripherals are not horrible by any means, just not nearly what you would expect to see in a guy with a sub 3.00 era. His K/BB ratio is 1.97. No, not horrible – but not generally speaking “ace” material. About what you would expect from a good #3. His HR ratio is also average and conspicuously absent from your analysis. Still not horrible, but yet another piece of evidence that he is not an ace.

    Maddux is a silly comp. Despite K rates about the same as Happ, he had very good K/BB ratios because he didn’t walk anyone. His control made up for his (relative) lack of heat. I could go on, but really there is no point in doing so; Happ is not a remotely similar pitcher.

    Glavine is the name I expected people to mention, and while there IS a superficial comparision, consider:

    (1) His HR% was very low. That’s a significant difference. You can (barely) maintain an “ace” level of performance with the kind of K/BB ratio that he (and Happ) have, but only if you are exceptional at keeping the ball in the park, or if you have Nolan Ryan type heat. Happ isn’t either.
    (2) Glavine’s minor league record in context (i.e., considering his age at each level) was much better than Happ’s (again, you can see a superficial comparison only by ignoring age difference). Also Glavine was good enough to be a major league starter at 22; Happ is 26.
    (3) Glavine is an outlier. Look at other starting pitchers with similar K/BB ratios. Why would you epect Happ to perform at Glavine’s level, as opposed to a more “typical” performance for a pitcher with his profile.

    Look, I LIKE Happ. Saying that he likely has a long (or longish) career in front of him as a good #3 is PRAISE. But the ONLY piece of evidence that he will be more than that consists of 11 starts this year, 16 overall. That’s a pretty slim reed upon which to build delusions that he is going to be an ace, especially given the large number of reasons to believe otherwise.

    “his minor league stats are of no concern to me since he pitches in the majors.”

    John, that statement meakes no sense at all. It would make sense if evaluating a player who had been in the majors for, way, three full years. Or maybe even 2. It makes no sense at all to say that about a pitcher who has 16 career starts. Putting it as simply as possible, it would be almost uprecedented in major league history for a 26 year old like Happ to “really” be a sub 3.00 starter over a significant period of time after having the kind of mediocre minor league career he had. Doesn’t happen.

  57. And John, in relation to your latest response to Jak 440, your missing the point in a couple of ways. Firstly, I think you are misremembering the extent to which both pitchers were well regarded when they came up. Smart fans (and scouts) relaize that there are other things besides pure heat to being a great pitcher. Glavine and Maddux had those things, and it was at least somewhat evident that that was so when they were first brought up (at a much younger age than Happ i might add).

    But certainly it is true that some pitchers – and Glavine and Maddux are examples – out perform expectations. But that’s a pretty banal statement. I think it’s fair to say (I’ve made it clear all along that I agree!) That Happ’s performance to date makes it likely that he will exceed expectations to some degree. But to exceed expectations to the extent that some peopel here seem to believe – i.e., to expect him to continue performing at the same level going forward – seems to me to be quite irrational.

  58. I find it hard to believe that “very few people who knew that maddox or glavine would have the careers they did”

  59. John does that Larry, just ignore his rants based off his expert “gut” feelings. Happ is a 4/5 starter in the ML. He’s had some good starts lately. I’d trade him in a second for Roy Halladay.

  60. A lot of people will point to their initial scouting reports and use that as proof. Personally, I love Happ but if you don’t think he is pitching WELL above his head then you’re blind.

  61. So no comments on the Phillies’ reported interest in Chad Qualls? I certainly don’t agree with nowheels assertion that a closer is a higher need than a #1-2 starter, but I do worry a bit about Lidge. OTOH, I’m not sure I’m sold on Qualls as a closer, and, while the cost in salary is low, for the same reason the cost in prospects will likely be high.

  62. I like Happ. I was even at his double-header shortened 7 inning no-hitter. But let’s not go crazy here. He could well be a solid #3 and that is not a bad thing. I don’t see the Phils giving him up easily because he’s cheap and controllable for a long time.

  63. once again READ THE POST. i dint say happ was an ace. i said i would not include him in the deal. he is a legitimate number 3 starter. if you dont believe the phils have a better than 70% chance of winning ehen he takes the hill than your confused. he is pitching the way he has always pitched just better. if you READ MY POST youll understand why he is good.larry larry,larry once again you make my point. i dont CLAIM to see alot of games i do. like 40 in person and god knows on t.v. please be careful calling someone a liar.once again for the millioneth time i didnt put happ in maddox or glavine,s class. i,ll say it differenly if anyone on here tells me 1n 1986-87 they knew maddox or glavine would be hof,ers then i,ll personally get you an interview with bill giles. i suppose mike piazza would have been the 1st round pick of half of you too. it,s easy to look back and say so and so,s fip is much better or so and so,s ops is great in retrospect,but try doing it in advance.

  64. @john “He is pitching the way he has always pitched, just better”

    And we’re all saying he’s not pitching any better, he’s just basically getting luckier.

    @larry

    I don’t want ANY part of Qualls. Not even a little.

  65. as far as being that’ gut feeling” type of approach man that is not an all or nothing approach. the gut feeling old timer like paul owens who i knew very well larry would make the deal for halliday in a second including happ,drabek,taylorand brown. i ask you guys one question suppose you only had your eyes to judge a player. would you tell me happ is lucky, because i dont see any luck just quality. would you tell me santana is unlucky. bb is filled with guys who were lucky and won 200 games and guys who were unlucky like nolan ryan the lowest run support of any 300 game winner. or would you look at jim kaat and say that guy shoudnt get anyone out. ill take a guy whos lucky and wins versus a guy with great stuff and is a .500 pitcher. and thats not even admitting happ has very good stuff. please guys just be honest and tell me if your confident when happ takes the mound.

  66. John Heyman’s (sports illustrated) twitter reads “#mets rejected request of package of f-mart, niese, parnell and ruben tejada for halladay. #jays” it looks like they are trying to create offers for halladay and are desperate to deal him. I know that the phillies prospects are better than this package. Any thoughts?

  67. He posted an article on sports illustrated that I just found. The package includes top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, young pitchers Bobby Parnell and Jon Niese and shortstop prospect Ruben Tejada. This is what a similar phillies package should look like to nab halladay.

  68. Taylor looks like another Howard. You DO NOT package such players for 1 pitcher who could break down at any time. No Happ, no Drabek, no Taylor or NO deal !

  69. 64 survivor,

    no offense to u as a person, but that is the dumbest post i have ever seen on this site. You are making it seem like we are doing the Jays a favor by taking Halladay. Are you serious? for the best pitcher in baseball, were going to give THEM conditions. here is what people need to get through their heads:

    1. it starts with drabek. no drabek, no deal for us. its gonna work like that.

    2. after drabek, taylor OR brown will have to be included

    3. Carassco

    4. Donald

    that could do it. stop making absurd trade proposals, and this goes for everyone, that 5 mid prospects is gonna get Roy. its not. Carassco will not be a headline of the deal, hell be one of the final pieces. its how it works fellas, if we want him, thats what were going to have to give up.

    and im all for it

  70. @john
    I’d tell you that Santana has been unlucky this year. I’d also tell you that he has the best change-up in the game. This is insane. Is Jason Marquis suddenly a quality pitcher because he “wins” games. Does he have “it?” Does he “know how to pitch?” Is he a “winner?” Any more cliches you can lay on me? Has he “figured it out?”

    I know it will be impossible to convince you, but look at this link: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2009&month=0

    J.A. Happ has the lowest BAIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) in the entire major leagues. The lowest. Listen, I’m a huge Phillies fan. I want Happ to succeed, but right now, opponents are hitting the ball at people when he is on the mound. Beyond that, look at the run support. It’s not that difficult to pitch when your team is scoring more than SIX RUNS PER GAME behind you. If you were wondering, that’s 10th in the league.

    He’s a fine number three. I like him, and while I’d package him for Halladay today, I understand why people like Larry won’t – because he has more value this year than Drabek. Just don’t feed me this line about his intangibles because its a fairy tale. If you want to tell me mechanically what he’s doing different, i’ll bite. Show me how he’s improved his stuff, I’m interested. If you can find stats that suggest he’s turned the corner, by all means. Just come with something stronger than your “gut.”

  71. I’m sure you would have put together a similar package for Peavy. His situitation is exactly what I’m talking about – pitchers break down (think Freddie Garcia). Also there is no guarantee Doc would even stay after this year. Players who signed multiyear contracts before 2006 are allowed to get out of contract if they are traded mid contract. I’m pretty sure that is correct. Anyone verify ?

    We ned to Gamble to get Halliday, but we do not need to give away the farm. Certainly no more than the Mets gave for Santana

  72. @64 survivor
    The Mets put on bandanas, pulled up their hoods and wore sunglasses and straight up stole Santana. If we want Halladay, we’ll have to give more. If you aren’t okay with giving up more, I understand that, but then don’t say we need to “gamble.” Giving up a package without Happ, Drabek or Taylor wouldn’t be a gamble, it would be highway robbery.

  73. jak440
    Please that is Happ’s game flyballs in a small outfield that dont
    go out and few that do dont hurt. You are condemning him for having control of the game.(one run in the last four games
    not by home run). This not the first time he allowed 2hrs in Reading half a year. So please think your stats out.

  74. dantheman:
    I don’t think it starts with Drabek; it starts with Taylor. Here’s why: The Jays motivation for trading Halladay is financial. Acquiring Taylor allows them to trade a similar player in Alex Rios who is set to make big money in the next 4 years. There’s a great deal of interest in him (Mets ,Mariners ,Giants and Pirates all are rumored to be interested. He’s still only 28 and would get them a decent player or players in trade. Taylor in his rookie season can come close to or exceed the production Rios is giving them at a fraction of the price with higher upside as his career progresses.
    In my trade proposal I included Carrasco and Knapp as a substitute for Drabek. If they don’t like Carrasco I would sub Happ. Knapp becomes a large part of their 3 year plan to become competitive again in the AL East.
    Jason Donald is the 4th player I included to fill a need for the Jays infield. It doesn’t hurt that he’s considered a high character guy with a makeup similar to Chase Utley.

    That should be enough to get it done. If they need a sweetener throw in an A level player.

  75. One of the announcer looked at the Florida outfield and said
    there is a lot of room for the fielders to go get the ball. But there is a lot of room for balls to fall in.

    Why is it so hard to understand a flyball at CBP has a better change to be caught then a large out. So Happ is golden in Philly. Some you have succumbed to Wheelerisms.

  76. I don’t want to sound like one of the ridiculous people who egregiously overvalue our prospects and think that we can get Halladay for a scrap-pile of b-level prospects and a case of jock straps…. but I think the Phillies are a sollid enough team right now that they don’t absolutely need Halladay and so are in a position that they can lowball the Jays and hope the line catches. Its absolutely wishful thinking, but I would really hope to get him without giving up Happ or Drabek, while giving up Carrasco as a center piece only one of Taylor or Brown and one of d’Arnaud or Marson…. and then whatever they want of Knapp, Savery, Bastardo, Worley, Gose and all of those other mid-level guys.

    I wouldn’t want to give up Happ because, while he can’t possibly sustain his current numbers for a career, it wouldn’t be outlandish for him to at least maintain them to some degree for the rest of this season… and right now he is the unlikely stabilizing influence of our rotation.

    I’d either prefer to get him on the cheap or not get him at all.

  77. large outfield sorry
    BTW I passed Baltimore all they talking about on the radio is football. Not one word about the orioles

  78. John,

    Did you even read my post that you responded to? I said Happ could well end up being a good #3 – and I agreed he shouldn’t be part of the Halladay deal. I was responding to nowheels, who said:

    “How could you rate Drabek over Happ. Forget the hype believe your eyes please.”

    Which is absurd.

  79. ” ill take a guy whos lucky and wins versus a guy with great stuff and is a .500 pitcher”

    Hmm, okay, you would take this guy:

    ERA 5.58 W-L 9-6

    over this guy:

    ERA 2.86 W-L 7-7

    Really?

    I mean, I don’t REALLY think that’s what you mean. At least I hope not. You’re talking about the trikier situation where a pitcher is “lucky” in the sense of having a lower ERA than one would expect given his peripherals. And over the course of a career you are correct (though isn’t it funny that those things tend to equal out?). But if we are talking about a young pitcher who has (say) an ERA of 3.00 and a component ERA of 4.00, we would expect that he will not maintain an ERA of 3.00.

    But I think that you know that and are just being an argumentative cuss. Why do I think that? You agree that Happ isn’t going to be an ace, and will rather settle in as a good #3. Which implies that you know darn well that he is not going to continue with a sub 3.00 era or even close to it.

  80. @nowheels please
    That’s the most absurd rationale I’ve ever heard. Trust me, I’m willing to debate you, but don’t tell me to think about my stats. I know my stats and I know that pitchers have very little control over BAIP. That’s not a point you can argue. Years of statistical modeling have irrefutably proven that.

    Eventually, Happ’s BAIP will rise, some of those fly balls will start going out and he’ll stop stranding a ridiculous 87% of runners he allows. That’s second in the league by the way. When those things happen, the sparkling ERA will start to regress back to his more reasonable FIP of 4.36. There’s nothing wrong with 4.36 – that’s what Happ is – but I challenge you to find me a single statistic that suggests Happ is anywhere close to a sub-three ERA kind of pitcher. None of the peripherals suggest it. Not a single one. I don’t understand why you are all so juiced up about Happ. I’m happy he’s outperforming expectations right now, but I’m realistic enough to realize it’s not likely to last.

  81. I have to go into more detail on this BABIP thing, because this is the thing that all of you Happ-lovers have to explain to me. Lets look at his BABIP numbers in the minors:

    2006 (A+): .267
    2006 (AA): .302
    2007 (AAA): .389
    2008 (AAA): .308
    2008 (MLB): .283 {Small Sample}
    2009 (MLB): .242
    2008 MLB League Average: .301
    Greg Maddux career BABIP: .289
    Randy Johnson career BABIP: .302
    Pedro Martinez career BABIP: .291

    Can we please, please, please admit that Happs current BABIP isn’t sustainable. Can you just give me that one point?

  82. Don’t get excited guys, the same people that are hailing Happ will be the same guys screaming to bring up Drabek or Carrasco when his regression happens sometime in August and those fly balls start leaving the yard.

  83. Rick wise why not throw in Hamels and utley too. too much for a rental, he can opt out after the season, only if he signs a contract would I do a deal.

  84. You guys are all rediculous. Hallady has proven to be the best pitcher in baseball. PROVEN!!! All these prospects could end up being busts. They could end up winning Cy Youngs and MVPs too. You don’t know how theyre gonna be. Thats why theyre called “prospects”. I’d make the trade any way I could just because Hallady is a proven ace.

  85. Happ is piling up the innings at a good rate now. And I think that will become a serious problem. I was surprised Charlie left him in yesterday. It appears to me that after the fifth inning in his last few games, although he’s not giving up runs, his pitches certainly lose their sharpness.

    Yeah, the BABIP will likely rise, but bearing down with RISP or Runners on base is the characteristic of mentally tough pitchers. Happ may simply be one of those guys who becomes more focused under pressure. We have a number of them on the team. Utley, Vic, Stairs, Ibanez quickly come to mind.

    Also, Happ is pitching this well while still not having fully developed his secondary pitches. I think his upside is very similar to Randy Wolf in his prime. Not bad at all. And he has the added benefit that he’s bigger and has a smoother delivery. But that up and in fastball to righties is very similar to Wolf’s. And if his curve comes around, or even that slider he seems to throw some, and he can keep the fastball down until he wants to strike guys out, he can have a nice career.

    Watching the Phillies go on a run like they have now, I’d almost rather keep the prospects and Happ and see how it plays out. I love Halladay, but anything more than Drabek, Carrasco, Donald and Taylor/Brown and I would much rather see him stay with Toronto.

  86. I am not an expert and can’t pretend to be on any prospects, but I have seen on this site several times in other threads that the biggest jump is between A+ and AA. I believe it is between any minor league level and the majors. The holes in your game will eventually be exposed by the best players in the game. The test of the Phils prospects discussed in this threads are there: How will Happ fair in another trip around the league, is Drabek big enought physically (Oswalt, Lincecum not withstanding), does Taylor really have a hole in his swing, does Carrasco have the temperament, is Donald anything more than an upgrade over Bruntlett? No question for Brown, but that doesn’t mean anything.
    Regardless of what Amaro does he will be second guessed; it’s human nature but it is also why a good baseball GM is well paid. I say bide your time for another week or so, recognize if you are bidding against yourself and hope you can win the game of chicken by giving up the least amount you can, but get Halladay and give up enough to do so. He is currently one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball and would be the best that the Phils have had since Carlton. Yes he is better than Schilling.
    The Phils window is 2 or 3 years, not 7 or 8 as frequently cited above.

  87. Halladay is not better than Schilling until he wins a game in the playoffs. He’s never been there yet.

    Yeah, he’s better if all you’re talking about is regular seasons. And many players never get to the playoffs, so it’s a little unfair. But if you’re comparing head to head, you need to have a sample for each that accounts for Schilling’s dominance in the post season. That is what separates him from many other similar pitchers over their careers.

  88. Ughh. Halladay couldn’t opt out, he can demand a trade, which is far from the same thing and would be extremely unlikely.

  89. Halladay is not the best pitcher in baseball he is the second best johan santana is the best pitcher in baseball and I want you to look at what the muts traded for him and get those facts and come back and start talking

  90. Hallladay is better than Schilling. And your statements make the argument. Halladay has not been in a post-season game, so there is nothing to compare. The only comparison is regular season and Halladay is better

    Hamels has been in 4 post-season series and has won 2 MVPs in those series. According to your logic, he is also better than Halladay. I doubt that you would find many who would agree with you.

  91. Forget Halladay and all the others. Continue tweaking the lineup. Just as in 08 when Blanton was acquired, we can now count on Lopez and perhaps Pedro. Strengthen the bench with a righthanded hitter and do not trade Happ, Drabek, Knapp, Carrasco or Savery. Keep Brown, Taylor, Marsen and Gose. The Phils are in the enviable position of having a very strong team, albeit with a few holes like any other squad, coupled with an overhauled minor league system ready to begin supplying the club with a steady flow of talent over the coming years. We are already in contention, have the second best record in the NL, and are obviously an offensive juggernaut. It would be a shame to gut the minor league system in order to acquire just one pitcher who, though very good, certainly could not guaranty another WS win. Not matter how good a player may be, no one is good enough to provide that kind of guaranty. Let’s go with what we’ve got just as in 2008 and, with the system the Phils are building, we can remain in contention for many years to come.

  92. Santana might be better than Halladay, as might Lincecum, but there aren’t a lot of others and I think you could make an argument for any of the three.

  93. Halladay vs. Schilling, that’s interesting. Schilling obviously has more career value, but does Halladay’s peak stack up?

    Best Five Year Peaks
    Schilling: 85-40, 3.24 ERA, 145 ERA+
    Halladay: 75-30, 3.03 ERA, 146 ERA+

    Best Ten Year Peaks
    Schilling: 155-86, 3.41 ERA, 135 ERA+
    Halladay: 133-62, 3.44 ERA, 133 ERA+

    Both have been on six All-Star squads. Halladay has won a Cy Young award. They are very, very close.

  94. larry i read your post and said you made my point about happ being a number 3. this is my final comment on the matter, i have to let the mushrooms subside. this is insane I NEVER SAID HAPP IS AN ACE OR THAT HE WILL GO 18-0 THIS SEASON. of course his era will rise, he will lose games. but to trade him is to defeat the purpose of halliday. and if they dont trade drabek they should cut his innings down soon, not bring him up pat. this is how wars start. you said that, no i didnt, yes you did. gimme a break.

  95. the 7th game of the ws. i want schilling starting. of course its just an opinion, since schilling is one of the best post season pitchers ever next to c.mathewson,b. gison, and whity.lets hope halliday has a few years where he can show his stuff.

  96. wait a minute, im supposed to believe toronto offered halliday to the mets for f. mart, tejada, niece and parnell? and the mets turned it down? what twilight zone is this. i wouldnt give up taylor for those 4 bums. smells like a plant or just maybe toronto turned down that generous offer from the mets.

  97. there can only be 4 explanations for this mets report
    1 toronto is insane
    2 toronto,s offer said the mets must take wells and rios
    3it,s a fabrication to scare thephillies
    4 it never took place.
    i vote 3

  98. I vote #3 too John.
    At this point, I think the Phils are the only real bidders. There is a line of pretenders for either a lack of $$, lack of prospects, an undesirable spot for Halladay, or no real chance to win this year.
    The key is putting together the right deal, without outbidding yourself! I would love to get him for Carrasco, Donald, Knapp, and Taylor. You are giving up a lot there, but I do believe they will have to give up either Drabek or Happ. If so, I guess I do that too.

  99. All’s right with the world. I need a holiday from Halladay. When Donald gets back you have a backup SS, you have a backup
    catcher, you have Carpenter etc as back up pitcher, Taylor and
    Brown later as back up outfield,good Ph,good defense, and great standings.

    There basically are only two questions; Lidge and why Bruntlett is here.

    Why mess with success

  100. We can’t deal Happ, even if he fizzles or becomes another Kendrick we can’t deal him at this point. I would do the following:

    Offer the Jays some tiers of players:
    Tier 1 (Pick any 2)
    Brown, Drabek, Carassco, Taylor

    Tier 2 (Pick any 2)
    Savery,Kendrick,Carpenter,Escalona,Donald, Marson, Mayberry,Knapp,D’nard

    Tier 3 (pick 1)
    Anyone not on that list from AA or AAA. Guys like Bisenius, Zugerski etc. Filler types

    I think that satisfies their wants and needs, They could come out of this with Drabek, Carassco, Marson, Donald and Big Z (Who I think should be back in the majors, he was throwing darn good last time I saw him in Reading)

  101. This is lining up to be an interesting run at the playoffs.

    Let’s say the Phils get Halladay, Myers returns and Pedro throws fairly well. Now, you have some interesting decisions to make.

    We all know the current rotation may not be good enough to bring the ring this year. But, what if Halladay lines up at the top with Hamels, Blanton and Moyer filling out the rotation and then Myers and Pedro helping out the back end of the pen.
    To me, that makes sense as with Halladay on board, Lidge is still a huge question mark at this point. To have fortification back there would be a nice security blanket.

    I also think the Bruntlett ship has sailed. This bench has neither power (from the right side) nor any speed. We need to explore all options to fill that need.

  102. More like the Bruntlett ship sunk. People want to hold on to
    players like they are family. I like Coste and have nothing against Bruntlett but ….

    Looking at all this goings on. Its faint and remote but if Lidge
    fails, could Pedro end up the closer? Hopefully we won’t have to answer that.

    Brown is on fire,moving on up soon?

  103. If we don’t give up Happ in a deal for Doc than Moyer will not pitch in the playoffs unless they carry him in case of a long relief opportunity which I would doubt. Last season he had two pretty bad outings in the playoffs before his gem.

    Both he and Pedro will most likely be in the same boat. Especially if Pedro comes in here and pitches halfway decent to the 5th inning. Moyer does not instill me with much confidence at all. Especially against patient teams.

    Let’s not forget about Lopez either. If he stays healthy and pitches like he has been then he would most likely be a better choice than Moyer.

    Moyer is a great story, but we can’t continue to try and depend on him as our 4th pitcher. It’s better to have options than to not have them, but out of all of them Moyer scares me the most. Regardless of that one gem being in the biggest game of his life.

  104. Check Halladay’s last game. Low scoring game, outpitches Jon Lester. Can you have high expectations of success in that from: Happ? Moyer? Pedro Martinez?, Dan Haren? Eric Bedard? and on and on and on.
    Alot of the top guys rumored to go are soon to be spare parts for now ,or question marks for various reasons.
    There is no need for tinkering with the bench until they get the bench requirement of viable defensive options at SS, CF, and catcher. Bruntlett can be a reserve option at those spots, and having that in reserve for late game situational strategy, overrides obsession over batting average and pinch hitting bull. What they might need would be an IF/OF type Right-handed Hitter with some offensive prowess to replace Mayberry. Orioles just traded a player like that (Oscar Salazar). The cost was an MLB relief pitcher. Want to trade that , or near that in prospect(s) for a guy who seldom plays?
    Organization note: T.J. Warren to Lakewood, Zach Collier to Williamsport. (From Crosscutters website as note following wrapup under Carl Uhl’s picture)

  105. Agree with ML this is a game of chicken. Phils are absolutely correct to lowball at this point. Jays are correct to ask for the moon.

    There will be slight concessions on both sides as the dealine approaches, but Phils should stick to their guns. It will all come down to who is more motivated to make the deal. Which organization has said in its secret meetings, “We have to do this.” The team that has a stronger version of that edict will cave the most. I hope it’s not the Phils.

    Right now it is pure gamesmanship. You can’t read the ultimate reality of what will happen into the reports of what has been offered and rejected so far.

  106. From Hardball Times:
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/j.a.-happ-and-zach-duke/

    The most interesting thing is Happ’s very low percentage of swings outside teh strike zone (in direct contradiction of a poster’s observation above). Try to get past the fantasy orientation of teh post, he presents some interesting stats.

    Clone Wars: J.A. Happ and Zach Duke
    Posted by Troy Patterson at 3:10am

    So J.A. Happ has stormed through his first 10 starts and won six of them with no losses. I know we discussed Zack Duke a few weeks ago, but the similarities between his 2005 season and Happ this year called for a revisit. I found Duke was headed down in the second half, but does Happ have the same prediction? Let’s take a look at their current seasons and find out.
    IP ERA W K K/9 K/BB HR/FB BABIP LOB% xFIP
    Zach Duke 126.0 3.29 8 65 4.64 2.03 8.60% 0.271 77.40% 4.48
    J.A. Happ 87.0 2.90 6 61 6.31 1.91 9.40% 0.242 85.90% 4.78

    Zach Duke

    Not only was 2005 a great season for him, but his numbers did look very good. He had a K/BB of 2.52 in his first major league callup and although the 1.81 ERA was way over his head he had a xFIP of 3.66. It looked like he could have much better seasons ahead, but the strikeout rate was not for real. His K/9 dropped from 6.17 to 4.89, and his ERA ballooned to 4.47, 5.53 and 4.82 over the next three seasons.

    What caused the drop in K/9 following 2005 season and his poor showings since then? In 2006, his fastball was almost 2 mph slower, resulting in batters swinging on 47.6 percent of his pitches to 43.9 percent of them. On top of this hitters improved their contact rate from 81.6 percent to 86.2 percent. Some of these rates have returned slightly, but this hasn’t brought his K/BB back to 2.5.

    As far as fantasy goes his value is really low even when his ERA is down like this season. He still can’t strikeout anyone this season with a K/9 at 4.64, but is helped by a solid GB% of 45%. This has helped his BABIP, with the Pirates owning a top three UZR/150 among NL teams. Having strong defense will help his BABIP this season, but it won’t be enough to help him keep his ERA this low all year.

    J.A. Happ

    There has been a lot of excitement over Happ in his first 10 starts this season in Philadelphia. The numbers have been good in the minors, but so far his numbers this years point to a regression. His K/9 looks like a 2005 Duke at 6.31, but his BB/9 has always been around three in the minors.

    Unless he can raise his K/9 in the second half there is going to be some regression for Happ this year. His pitches out of the zone right now are not fooling anyone. His O-Swing% of 18.6% is lower than any starter with more than 80 innings pitched. As long as that keeps up he will continue to keep a BB/9 over 3 and a K/BB around 2 at best.

    Looking at his splits so far this season you can see his ability to get lefties out (2.44 K/BB against lefties), but with a K/BB of 1.70 against righties he would make a good play against lineups heavy with left handers. He was never seen as anything more than a back of the rotation starter while he was progressing through the minors. Unless he can get more righties out his stuff will limit him to that or back to the bullpen. Perhaps he could even end up in a LOOGY role, which would end his fantasy relevance.

    Conclusion

    Happ has caught the attention of many with the 6-0 record so far, but his numbers don’t back it up. His 2.90 ERA is sure to rise and at a xFIP of 4.78 he could really hurt your team in the second half. Duke is a little tougher to deal with since he has a track record, but you could still try to move him. Neither should be given away, but with the trade deadline looming in many leagues you could move them for solid value.

    If I had to pick one of these two I would go with Happ for 2009 and even beyond. He has a much better team and a better strikeout rate. There is some concern though as his flyball rate is high at 47 percent and his home park is going to let more than the current 9.4% HR/FB. Long term though neither can do anything like this continuously. Expect both to go higher in 2010 drafts and not be worth the value for their owners.

  107. The people saying they wouldn’t put Happ in a deal to get Hallday are ridiculous. You would be upgrading your rotation by replacing a number 3/4 starter for a number 1 ace starter. That would give you a playoff rotation of Halladay,Hamels, Blanton, and Moyer/Lopez/Pedro. You can’t tell me that isn’t better than Hamels, Happ, Blanton, and Moyer/Lopez/Pedro.
    Give the Jays Happ, Drabek, Brown, Donald, and another throw in prospect. The Phillies have a 2-3 year window to win another World Series, getting Hallday would improve their chances 10 fold.
    Also for people saying Hallday might opt out after this year, the odds of that happening are slim to none. Halladay has told people he wants to win and he has as good of a chance in Philly as he does anywhere else.
    Also Halladay has been a stud starter in the hardest division in baseball. Put him in the NL and he does even better.
    I know I’m not breaking any ground here or saying anything new I just got tired of reading people saying they don’t want to get Halladay if it is going to cost Happ.

  108. phillychuck
    1.Duke was 22 and pitched too hard by a perennially dumb and bad team. Frequently approaching 120 pitches in 05 and 06.
    2.Fip is so influenced by the type of park it is useless
    3.When it’s showdown time how many times does Happ come up large. The first game he pitched he struck out Reyes covering a Rollins error (after which he should of been pulled)
    the last game he pitcher he covered a Feliz two out error.
    4. An frequently his out pitch is a high pitch out of the zone.

    I just went over the last line of your offering. It’s a fantasy
    article. You have to be kidding. Those guys don’t watch baseball they are too busy

  109. Regarding Happ, in my case at least, a big part of the reason that I don’t favor including him in a trade is the assumption that Toronto would value Drabek as highly or more highly than Happ. While I think that that valuation is in the long run correct, I think the Phillies would be better off including Drabek, both because of the “win now” rationale of the trade, and because (most likely) the rest of the package would be cheaper with Drabek as opposed to Happ.

    That said, if the Jays absolutley won’t do the deal without Happ, I would (reluctantly) include him, depending, of course, upon the rest of the package. (e.g., I wouldn’t trade Happ and Drabek and Taylor.) But I just don’t see them insisting on Happ over Drabek.

    To sum up, including Drabek instead ofHapp is better overall for both teams, given the Phillies desire to win now, versus Toronto’s longer term needs.

    Finally, while of course the Phillies can’t get this deal done without including a top prospect, I am getting the sense that the dynamics of negotiations are trending a bit in their favor. I think that there is at least a chance that a package headlined by Drabek, without Taylor, Brown or Happ, might get it done. They would probably need to include Marson; hopefully his recent performance has enchanced his value.

  110. I see where you are coming from Larry. I would love to keep Happ around. He would fit into the Phillies number 3 or 4 starter role behind Halladay, Hamels, maybe Blanton. That would be a great play off rotation in my opinion.

    I differ from you and say I would do a Happ, Drabek, and Taylor/Brown type deal. If the Jays are going to trade Halladay I think they may have to be blown away. I hope I’m wrong but I think that’s what it is going to take.

    My thinking was that they would want both Happ and Drabek in a deal and even at that cost I would probably end up doing the deal.

  111. apparently they don’t even want happ. they’re more interested in drabek, knapp, and carrasco in that order. so it’s kind of a moot point for people to argue whether or not they’d trade happ for halladay

  112. @nowheels please
    You say he’s dialing it up in pressure situations, we say people are hitting that ball at his fielders with runners on base. Do you honestly believe his strand rate is going to stay at 87% when he can’t strike anybody out? How is that possible? You are ignoring our legitimate statistical questions.

  113. 113, you’re crystal ball gazing. You have no idea how the current core of players will be performing in 5 or 6 years. Of course Ibanez won’t be around but God willing Machael Taylor and/or Dom Brown will. You forgot to mention Utley, Victrinio, Hamels or Drebek. Don’t you think they’ll be around?

    The comparison to NY teams, well we are becoming somewhat like them. Our current salaries are somewhere in the neighborhood of 134 million. Taking on Halliday will increase that, which management doesn’t seem to have a problem with. Salaries will go up, that’s what success brings.

    There is a reason you don’t trade prospects like Drebek, Knapp, Taylor, or Brown. In Drebek and Knapp’s case you don’t trade young pitchers for older pitchers who won’t be around in 10 years. That’s short term thinking. As for Taylor and Brown, they are the only legitimate power prospect in our system. We have all kinds of toolsey players to chose from. Let the Blue Jays have at it with them.

  114. Would not hesitate to give up Happ in a Halladay trade because they may have a replacement similar to Happ ready in a few years in the system. Happ has great composure on the mound as he showed when he was be able to pitch out of a difficult situation not of his own making in his last outing. Seems like 09 fifth round draft pick Matt Way has the same mound presence that Happ has. Way pitched out of a second and third situation not of his own making by striking out the side in the first inning of last night’s game for Williamsport. He also made adjustments to a floating strike zone as the game progressed.
    http://www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/529627.html?nav=5023
    This was in direct contrast to Kyle Drabek who I watched pitch Friday night in Reading where he showed emotion when he did not get a borderline pitch or fielding support. Must be something about college pitchers better able to deal with adversity.

  115. jak440
    Our old friend Gavin Floyd won a game last night gave up
    3HRs the only hits he allowed what is his FIP for that game.

    let go over Happ last start I guess you didn’t see it. Ruiz
    flobs a double play ground. Bases are loaded no outs.
    1.Pop out
    2. STRIKE OUT
    3. STRIKE OUT
    jak440 Says:
    “You are ignoring our legitimate statistical questions”

    You are ignoring baseball. You are ignoring “situational baseball”

  116. Can everyone just agree that NoWheels is never going to agree with FIPs(Or similiar stats) and just stop the pointless arguing about what we think of Happ? I think everyone’s opinion at this point is pretty concrete.

  117. Joe,

    Can we all agree that nowheels is an idiot who knows nothing about baseball, and (more significantly) is a nasty, sarcastic and bitter person?

    I mean, you are correct, and I try to ignore him (obviously not always with success), but there are a few people here who seem to actually pay attention to what he says, and I think refuting nowheel’s ignorant nonsense serves to prevent those people from falling into error.

  118. @nowheels
    I saw it. I see every game. That was a single situation in a single game. Answer me the following questions:
    1. Is Happ a legitimate strikeout pitcher?
    2. Can he continue his success basically throwing only fastballs that average less than 90 mph?
    3. Does he have a plus pitch?
    3. Can he continue stranding 87% of the runners he allows?
    4. Can he continue holding the opposition to a .242 average on balls in play?
    5. Can he continue to get hitters out when the opposition almost never swings at pitches he throws out of the zone?

    Seriously. He’s your man-crush so answer these one-by-one for me.

  119. @joe
    The thing I like about the comments section of this site is the reasonable, logical, intelligent discourse. For instance, LarryM has really opened my eyes about why it might make more sense to trade Drabek than trade Happ. But if you’re going to make an argument, I want someone to back it up. I’m not emotionally invested in this, but I like logic.

  120. I personally just don’t think it helps the the OVERALL discourse of the site for you two to concentrate your considerable Baseball Brain matter trying to convert an OBVIOUS traditionalist about why Happ is due for a regression. I also just ignore him when he makes sniping comments about people who DO employ Sabermetrics.

  121. @Joe
    Point taken. I don’t want to drag down the conversation. This will be the last I talk about it. Sometimes I need to be reminded to shut up 🙂

  122. “Taking on Halliday will increase that, which management doesn’t seem to have a problem with”

    Actually, with all of the contracts coming off the books next year, it’s not clear that taking on Halladay will increase the overall team salaries. Obviously if they sign him beyond 2010 it would be a different story.

    “You are ignoring “situational baseball””

    For the benefit of others – I know nowheels won’t listen – there is no such thing as a pitcher who excels at “situational baseball” (beyond the extent to which he excels overall) over a period of years. Again, this is supported by overwelming research.

    It’s really sad in a way, but people like nowheels, who probably have been watching baseball for many years, “learn” a number of pieces of conventional wisdom early on, refuse to question said wisdom, believe that their observations over time confirm said wisdom (there is even a technical term for this, “confirmation bias”), and then think that their (say) 20 years of “experience” viewing baseball gives them some sort of expertise. But of course it doesn’t.

    Now, this doesn’t mean that REAL experts, professional scouts, for example, don’t have certain areas of expertise that allow them (for prospects especially, and for all players in hard to measure areas such as defense) to see things that the statistics don’t see.

    But your average fan can’t develop that level of expertise. So you see old cranks like nowheels who refuse to even look at the EVIDENCE, and who engage in cranky, and in context hilarious, comments accusing other people of not understanding the game.

    Really, I wouldn’t do this if he wasn’t so nasty and obnoxious himself.

  123. Sigh, yes, Joe, I do get it. But as you see I’ve been a lot more polite with John lately (though he still seems to think I’m picking on him, which I guess is partly my fault based upon my history of comments). But nowheels … well, see above for my reasons, I won’t repeat myself. I’ll try to cool it a bit.

  124. @ larryM

    I have found you to be both condescending and insulting not to mention about arrogant about your “superior knowledge” not everyone sees things the same way as evidenced by good arguments in different directions. When someone disagrees w/ you, you have an incessent need to prove your right by offering an extensive essay as to why you are right and the person w/ a differing oppinion is wrong. I enjoy the differences and enjoy Nowheels and john’s comments as well as yours, i just don’t why you feel the need to constantly insult them. Without them we would have a bunch of guys patting each other on the back over iso’s and fip’s. Thanks NW and JFP for your comments and for your ability to put up with insults from guys like Larry!

  125. Larry any insult from you can only make my day.

    You are saying the expression ” reaching back for something”
    has no validity. Even you are not THAT dumb.

    Let me hear your defense of FIP. This should be good. No generalities please. Stay out of he either.

  126. Don’t argue with Nowheels, he’s a baseball prophet. He just knows who’s got it…. and Happ has got it, man.

  127. I think LarryM can GET Condescending, but normally someone else here starts by making fun of people in the conversation because they use sabermetrics.

    I don’t see how someone posting an “essay” to express their argument is a bad thing. They make an argument and present empirical data to back up their argument. I think that’s called “Debating”.

  128. when did this turn into a forum for children?

    can we skip the silly games and stick to a baseball discussion please?

  129. @jak440 … in your response @nowheels
    I saw it. I see every game. That was a single situation in a single game. Answer me the following questions:
    1. Is Happ a legitimate strikeout pitcher?
    2. Can he continue his success basically throwing only fastballs that average less than 90 mph?
    3. Does he have a plus pitch?
    3. Can he continue stranding 87% of the runners he allows?
    4. Can he continue holding the opposition to a .242 average on balls in play?
    5. Can he continue to get hitters out when the opposition almost never swings at pitches he throws out of the zone?

    Seriously. He’s your man-crush so answer these one-by-one for me.

    To answer the majority of your questions:
    1. It doesnt matter whether he is a legitimate strikeout pitcher as you mention later that balls in play have an avg of .242.
    2. How about glavine, maddox, moyer just to name a few pitchers with over 200 wins who havent touched 90 miles an hour in years
    3.His plus pitch would be his change up. He has recently been compared with his pitch repertoire to hamels with a avg fastball a plus change up and a curve that keeps hitters off balance.
    3. As to whether he can continue to strand runners, well that is up in the air. Although it has been a small sample size, he has shown composure with runners in scoring position with under 2 outs. Thus allowing him to concentrate on pitching and getting outs.
    4. With regard to whether he can continue to keep the balls in play avg to .242. If you watch happ pitch he pitches alot on the corners of the plate, which makes it harder for batters to get a good swing forcing easier outs.
    5. In regards to your final question as to if he can keep getting hitters out when they do not swing at balls thrown at of the zone, a pitcher who continue keeps the batters off balance and puts the ball where they cant get a good swing on it will continue to get hitters out.
    Happ has been attacking the strike zone and has been making the hitters miss. He has been doing it all season, but people are beginning to realize it more now since the last 15 games the phils have been putting up 2-5 runs in the first inning. Pitching with a lead is easier. Happ might not be the next halladay but he has good composure, a nice repertoire, and shows suprisingly good command of his pitches.

  130. “You are saying the expression ” reaching back for something” has no validity. ”

    No, I’m saying two things. Primarily that, generally speaking, every player (with very, very few exceptions) who has the talent and dedication to make the majors has a roughly equal ability to do that (obviously a star will be “better” in pressure situations than an average player, but only as a function of his overall superior talent – i.e., there is no such thing as an “average” player who excels because of his ability to “bear down” better than most players).

    Secondarily, in the modern game of baseball, “bearing down” is less of a factor than many people think. It was VERY MUCH a factor prior to 1920 (see, e.g., “Pitching in a Pinch”), when the game changed rather dramatically. Since then, primarily because of the threat of the HR, pitchers need to a very large extent to “bear down” on every pitch.

    To rachet down the rhetoric a bit, apart from the personality thing, which I won’t revisit, what I find most puzzling about nowheels (and to a much lesser extent John) isn’t so much the traditionalist viewpoint (which believe it or not I have a lot more respect for than many statheads), but the combination of “traditionalist” analysis with a distain for “traditional” scouting reports. It’s not so much that I think that a statistical analysis of Happ’s pitching is the only valid way of looking at him – it’s more that rejecting both that AND rejecting a more traditional scouting evaluation seems to me to be rather blinkered.

    “Let me hear your defense of FIP.”

    nowheels, it’s all there above, my own contribution so specific that people like John and mark mock me for my long winded essays. That said, in fairness no one (myself included) has linked to the actual studies which provide the underlying support for our analysis. I will try to do so at some point, but, believe it or not, even I sometimes run out of time to post here, so it will have to be later.

  131. I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this but there were a few curious ommisions from the Iron Pigs today. Kendrick was scheduled to start but was scratched. No word on why. Marson did not start either…could just be getting a rest for a day game following a night game? or is there something going down?

    Anyone else notice this…thoughts?

  132. As a side note, Carrasco may be an example of the opposite of the guy who is supposedly good in “clutch” situations. I actually think that in the overall population there probably are a number of people who have a problem in “clutch” situations. It’s just that the process of becoming a major league baseball player is such that it weeds out almost all of the people who have a deficit in that area. So that among the population of major league players, virtually everyone has that “skill.”

    In any event, that would explain WHY studies have shown that (with few exceptions) there is no such thing as “clutch” ability over a period of years, and that apparent displays of usch ability over a shorter period of time are mostly or even entirely statistical “noise.”

  133. I’ve heard a number of scouts raving over Gose (and since I’m a huge proponent of signing Victorino for 5+ as soon as possible) what about a package of Carrasco, Donald, Gose, and Bastardo? not enough I guess? I think it’s good for a little time to pass, maybe price will drop down

  134. I do think it’s important to have both viewpoints (statistical and traditional) to make better assesments of players. Both have value and i think both are being used more and more by scouts and other professional BB people.

  135. CZ Kendrick not starting is a bit weird i must admit although i didnt see him being included in a deal for a starting pitcher. Marson not starting isnt all that weird to me with a day game following a night game it can be argued to give the catcher rest. Although being that marson is so hot, it would make sense to ride your hot bat. Probably nothing serious going on but definitely worth looking at.

  136. Okay, I REALLY have other stuff to do, but let me provide one link, to the relevant wiki topic, which is suprisingly good, albeit still doesn’t go into much detail on the specific studies:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics

    Let me make something clear – I am not as “hard core” on the topic as some people here, which I think is reflected in some of my comments above. I think that there most likely is SOME talent associated with preventing hits on balls in play. Maybe Happ has that talent.

    But he isn’t going to continue to have a sub .250 BA on balls in play. That would be unprecedented in ML history.

  137. I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that the Phillies are the only team NOT to employ a fulltime statistical analyist.

  138. On cnnsi, Jon Heyman has just reported that the Phillies have already told, or will soon tell, the Jays that they will not include Drabek in a deal for Halladay.

  139. I would trade 5 Drabeks for Halladay. The chances of Drabek being just half of a Halladay are slim to none.

  140. To me it’s isn’t the prospect ,as much as the fact he could opt out after this year. or become free agent next year, Toronto said we can’t talk to him about contract before trade, why not a 48 hour window to negoatation a new deal, then its worth it to me.

  141. You can’t go back in time. True, the chances are slim that Drabek will amount to anything close to Halladay. However, the relevant question is what will Halladay do with the Phillies vs. what could Drabek do with the Phillies. In reality, you are looking at short-term results (this year and next, most likely) vs. long-term.

  142. does anyone know who the phillies offered for ryan spilboroughs. mlbtraderumors.com said the phillies offered two quality prospects but the deal was denied by the rockies.

  143. If Kendrick is getting moved, it would more likely be for someone like Willingham from the Nats.

    He would only make sense as part a Halladay deal if he was a 3rd-tier prospect who the Jays could immediately add to the rotation as a stop-gap..

  144. 3up3kkk –

    Willingham? That would be a nice move. Kendrick + a low prospect for Willingham is fair. He’s a nice Righty bat and can play the bench role. He’s got another yr or 2 after this one, and is right now a type B FA.

  145. it was Happ and prospects for Marquis and Spilborghs. don’t think the prospects were revealed.

  146. “Without Drabek in the deal, would Carrasco, taylor or Brown Marson, Donald do it?”

    Maybe. I wouldn’t have thought so a couple days ago. Honestly it’s hard for me to see why Toronto would do that deal.

    On the other hand, they seem to have backed themselves into a corner a bit; reports are that Halladay is “emotionally gone.” Keeping him now would be … awkward. And other teams involved seem to either be reluctant to take on salary, unwilling to deal top prospects, or situated in the AL east. So maybe an offer like that will get the deal done after all.

    “as much as the fact he could opt out after this year”

    He can’t opt out, he can demand a trade, which he will have no incentive to do. He would IMO most likely be gone after 2010, which is a legitimate reason not to give up TOO much.

  147. Without Drabek, the chance of Happ being included (for better or worse) increases. With neither included, I would think that Knapp would have to be part of the package.

    Just informed speculation, though.

  148. MikeMike: I do not believe so. They would have to include Happ or Knapp (in addition to the above) and even one of them might not do it, although it would likely make the Jays think longer.

  149. Man, having Roy Halladay would be great. But giving up Drabek plus one of the other top guys–Happ, Brown, Taylor, Knapp–would be too much to offer, IMHO.

    A deal that starts with Drabek, Donald, and d’Arnaud seems sensible to me. Maybe Taylor, Knapp/Happ, Donald, d’Arnaud, et al., because Taylor’s path to the majors is blocked for now. We have enough second-tier pitching prospects to potentially offer quantity over quality, if the Jays are interested, guys like Bastardo, Carpenter, Worley, etc.

    Roy Halladay is no guarantee of another WS championship. Once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. But selling the farm for short-term ambitions will almost definitely harm the future. So not any deal will do. It’s got to be the right one for us, too. Let’s hope Amaro is a good decider.

  150. I’ve read the Rox are pretty high on Spilbourghs and won’t let him go cheaply. Colorado is leading the wild card right now so I don’t see them making a move unless it gave some them immediate return, although if they got prospects they could turn them around for relief help, which I’ve read is what they’re after. I’d have to think they’d want to have something in place before the deal was done if that was the case.

  151. 113, It’s just not Drebek that the Blue Jays want, is it? The package of talent far exceeds Halliday’s worth. Within three years Brown and Taylor will be in a position to replace Ibanez, Werth and Victorino. Marson will replace Ruiz. Drebek, Carrasco, and Knapp will be in place to replace Moyer. This will facetate a continuation of teams capable of winning it all. Halliday would be a nice fit but not at the price you all want.

  152. It was just reported through Chuck LaMar that Kendrick will start at AAA tomorrow instead of this evening and that this decision has nothing to do with the trade dealine.

  153. It doesn’t matter if Taylor’s immediate path is blocked, you find somewhere to put him next year. (I am not saying his abilities compare to Jordan’s basketball abilities but when the Portland GM asked Bob Knight who he should draft and Knight said MJ (from his time with the 84′ Olympic team), the GM said they need a center, Knight said play Jordan at center.) He has a chance to be VERY good for a long time, so you find somewhere to play him. He can play every few days, come in for Ibanez in the last few inninings or keep in AAA for the first half of the year. You DO NOT trade him just because we have 3 good outfielders right now. Werth is a FA after next year and with injuries he will get enough chances.

  154. You have to give up talent to get talent. If the choice comes down to Taylor vs. Brown, I’d rather lose Taylor solely because he could be MLB ready next year, before the Phillies need him, whereas Brown will be MLB ready when the Phillies have openings in their outfield.

  155. A few weeks ago, the pressure was on Amaro to right the ship, now its on the Blue Jays to get a deal done before they lose all their leverage. I wouldn’t trade Drabek. I wouldn’t trade Happ unless he were the centerpiece of the deal. I wouldn’t trade Brown or Knapp along with Happ or Drabek. That would make our best offer something like Knapp, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald + a C/C+ prospect if necessary to get the deal done. I doubt the Jays could get a better offer from another club.

  156. watchin Heyman live on Francesa right now and said drabek has been pulled from any deal…also that teams are extremely overvaluing their prospects due to the economic climate(they want to keep their cheap players long term, instead of big contracts short term)…I gaurantee the price tag for Halladay is dropping by the day, will be interesting to see what any final package looks like

  157. Airborneranger –

    It’s NO sure thing all those players make it to the Majors. Carrasco? Will the lights ever come on? Knapp? COuld blow out arm before he ever reaches here. Marson? Could be another Jaramillo.

    I mean just to think that all these prospects will flawlessly replace these players and replace their production is not only naive but ignorant on your part. And even if they do you don’t know how the rest of the NL East will be. You don’t know how Utley/JRoll/howard/Hamels will age.

    This is this team’s time. Not in 3 yrs but NOW. This trade makes this team better. Whether or not they win another WS is not the point because this team is STILL better 100% better than without him. the same can’t be said with those prospects.

    The last NL team to win back to back has was 30 yrs ago, so if you think that these prospects can build a dynasty, it’s laughable. I don’t want a Braves’ Dynasty where we win once but pretty much are done once we get into the playoffs after that. We need to win while Howard/Ultey/JRoll are at their peaks.

    Look at F-Mart, everyone wanted him and the Mets said no. And though he’s still young, he doesn’t look like he’s the next anything. I mean he just doesn’t look like he’ll be a superstar.

    The Phillies didn’t even want Utley at first in the Draft. He was a fall back option for them. So how do you sit there and say this guy will be great and we need him, when probably the BEST 2B in the league wasn’t even their first choice in the draft they got him in?

    Hamels feel to us why? Because NO ONE thought he could stay healthy and had attitude problems…WE lucked out. We have a core that can do something special…why handicap them because a player MIGHT be good in a year or 2 or 3. When this core is good enough to win NOW and next yr.

    Come 2012 this team will be different. That is a guarantee. Would rather hope for the best in 2012? Or hope for the best in 2009?

    People say “but the prospect…the precious prospects…” the Dodgers have fantastic prospects…how many WS series have they won recently? Marlins? For all their drafting and signing and great farm system, whose home grown core is better? Ours.

    All I know is I lived in North Jersey when Victor Diaz was going to be the NEXT big thing. Everyone from the WFAN to the Daily News wiped his behind and where is he now?

  158. “People say “but the prospect…the precious prospects…” the Dodgers have fantastic prospects…how many WS series have they won recently? Marlins? For all their drafting and signing and great farm system, whose home grown core is better? Ours.”

    Ummm that’s because we have the payroll flexibility to sign our core players. Utley and Howard make nearly as much per season as the Marlins spend on their entire team. Your point is irrelevant.

    I for one would rather have a really good team now and a pretty decent team for the next ten years than have an incredible team right now and an atrocious team for the next ten years. No one has a crystal ball to tell them how our prospects will turn out but the people ready to unload the whole farm system for Halliday think he comes with a money-back guarantee or something. He doesn’t.

  159. Oh yea and the Marlins have won as many World Series in a decade as we have in a century. Maybe there is something to that whole “maintaining a good farm system” nonsense.

  160. Larry
    I went to the page you suggested and bookmarked it. It is interesting. But a pitcher(home team) in Petco should give up nearly half the homers as one pitching for Baltimore. There this stat is good only for similar parks.
    Before you jumped in I was disputing that corrupt stat that has nothing to with a traditionalist viewpoint.
    The proper attitude as far as I am concerned is to meld stats with real life enhancing your view.

  161. I do not get the impression that other teams are stepping up and making real offers for Halladay. The Phils may think (rightfully so) that they are bidding against themselves. If the Jays have to trade Halladay, i think Riccardi should stop talking and make the deal before the Phils pull anyone else out of their offer. A big part of this whole thing is the Phils lead the NL in attendance and most clubs are worried about their 2nd half ticket sales

  162. Skunky, the Marlins first World Series was won with free agents, certainly not with a farm system.

  163. 113, I guess if I’m ignorant then the Phillies scouting department, player development folks, and front office are also ignorant. Because pal, the Phillies drafted these guys, developed them and expect them to one day contribute. According to you they don’t know their business. You have to many if and but. You have no idea how the core will age or how our farm system will develop the players necessary to continue winning.

    I’m not against Halliday coming to the Phillies, just not for Drebek, Knapp, Brown, or Taylor. If he’s willing to sign a contract for the remainder of his career to be a Phillie, maybe. Other then that , no deal.

  164. Fair enough Bob, but even so citing the current Marlins organization as empirical evidence as to why maintaining a solid farm system isn’t fruitful is ass backwards on so many levels.

    I know not all of our top prospects will blossom into stars, but it isn’t unreasonable to envision many of our pharmhands as very reasonably priced, organizationally controlled ML contributors. Drabek may never be the pitcher Halladay is right now, but I still think five years of Drabek, five years of Taylor and five years of Knapp not to mention several other players may very well be more valuable than one and a half years of Halladay.

  165. ” but I still think five years of Drabek, five years of Taylor and five years of Knapp not to mention several other players may very well be more valuable than one and a half years of Halladay.”

    But that isn’t an entirely fair way to look at it. That is to say, it is entirely possible that Toronto will get more aggregate value in the deal – but if the Phillies win another world series (or two) because of the deal (which is not guarenteed but a Halladay deal would significantly increase their chances), then the deal would be a (very) good one for thew Phils.

    Which should be obvious, but some people lose sight of this. So that people arguing for and against a deal end up arguing past each other.

    Now, obviously there are limits to how much talent you give up – I personally think that Drabek, Taylor and Knapp would be a little on the steep side – but even if you are convinced that the Phillies are giving more value than they are getting, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they shouldn’t do the deal.

  166. Marlins are a bad team to use in any measure. The first WS was under Wayne H. who propped up the club only to best the other owner personally and then put himself in a position to sell the team at his price(he kept,parking,food,and higher price seating and for a time cable money)
    The new guys are completely different. not better just different ,a lot of interteam garbage.(e.g. Gerardi)

  167. i went to the game tonite great win. saw happ and dubee before the game. told happ he was doomed by our contingent of fantasy baseball posters. when i mentioned fantasy they asked if i knew larry the ombudsman i said yes. i told happ his fip was off, at this point uncle chalie came over and asked what in hell is going on when i told him about babip he nearly choked as he thought i was making fun of him. as i ran i said talk to jak 440. he said damn i,ve talked to ted williams and bob gibson. how did baseball ever make it without fantasy for 126 years. this my friends is called parody,except for the part about happ.

  168. happ is out, dradek is out, with each passing day someone is out. riccardi may have to settle for savery if he keep,s it up. the problem for real is that taylor will have to be moved by next year. unless you want to use him as a 4th outfielder. ibanez, vic, and werth are just too good. i still believe halliday will be a phillie contrary to the mounting feelings against it happining.

  169. nw, its all in good clean fun, as long as the nasty comments are left out. every player i asked last night looked at me like i had 3 heads. which i suppose is understandable. i better remove 2 and try to explain fip and babip and how happ is lucky before the next game.

  170. With the Yanks passing the Sox probably means there is another serious player in the Halladay game.

  171. Happ may be the next Marty Bystrom but you have to ride that horse like the Phils did Bystrom.
    Now Lopez and Carpenter have real trade value especially Lopez to a contender willing to part with a infielder.

    Again congrats to Mr. Susdorf.

  172. this stephan strasberg situation is looking disasterous for d.c. Washington will never learn. how many times must bb fail there. what a shame for walter johnson,s memory.

  173. Its hilarious that you two are on this board at 5 am. If for no other reason that’s how the rest of us know that you’re old.

    And Larry I think that it is a more than fair assessment of the trade value on both sides. I don’t even feel like I overvalue our prospects– its just a fact that several solid players for several years is more valuable overall to a team than one player for one year. Especially considering that this team is more than capable of winning a World Series without Halladay. I’d just rather play the cards we have now and still maintain our farm system for the future… especially since I’m not too keen on this year’s draft class.

    That’s not to say that I wouldn’t make the right deal, I just don’t want Toronto picking our pockets… especially considering that they put a one-week cap on all trade negotiations to end next tuesday.

  174. @john from philly.ne
    Good stuff John, cracked me up. I’m glad you understand it’s all in good fun.

    Another good win last night, and that’s the one thing we can all agree on, yes?

  175. as iv,e said jak440 this is bb not life and death. we have disagreements probably more the balance of value than the reality of sides. they all play a part somewhere. the people who i think have problems are those who really make it personal as if it will vindicate their life. as you said another great win.

  176. me too. wink
    Who is Halladay? and who needs him? lol

    Werth first walkoff. We can’t trade for Lannan. We need him
    in Washington to beat the Mets

  177. skunky i guess being up all night partying down the shore does qualify one for a walker, but what were you doing up at 6? it,s bb man lets keep it friendly. ill tell you one thing, being in your 50,s beats the alternative.

  178. I wouldn’t be surprised if Marson is called up within a week.
    Charlie said that Ruiz must be a student of hitting or something to that effect. It’s not like Charlie to go public like that. I read that to mean Charlie has tried to correct the huge defect in his swing and Ruiz won’t listen. If I were him I would listen.
    Bako has trouble even reaching the outfielders sooner or later they will move in and bad,goes to worse.
    PS. Santana seems to hit big time HRs for a beginner.

  179. I hope marson is called up he is tearing it up at AAA, the phillies do not need to have a catcher in the lineup with power, being that the top half of our lineup gives us plenty of power. The line up needs a consistent bat to turn the lineup over. Marson is hitting over 300 and needs to be called up. Getting rid of coste was the worst decision this season.

  180. There is a lot of good info in this thread but I think the Phillies should low ball the Jays. The Phillies are in a position of strength. They do not need Doc to make the play offs. The Phillies do not need him to win the WS. The Phillies are capable of doing this with out Doc but it is a lot easier if he is on the team.

    On the other hand the Phillies seem to be the only team dealing with the Jays. I say low ball them and see what happens.

  181. You’re right Phenix. The Jays have painted themselves in a corner with their handling of this. I would take either Carrasco or Knapp out of my earlier proposal which was Taylor,Carrasco,Knapp and Donald. I would prefer to keep Knapp but I think Toronto wants him over Carrasco.

    I still think Taylor is the main attraction because it would allow them to trade Rios and his large contract elsewhere.
    Donald is a better fit for them than he is to the Phils because he’s too young to consign to the utility role he would have here.
    What pitcher or pitchers they would want will make or break this deal.

    As for Halladay’s contract status, I would offer to amend the last year of his current deal (2010) if he would agree to at least two more years after that (through 2012 season)
    In three years both the Phillies and Halladay should have options if they want to go in different directions.
    I’m sure he’ll still be productive at age 35 to entice some team to sign him if the Phillies want draft pick compensation.

    In the mean time let’s win us some more world series!!!

  182. bako being here instead of marson is ridiculous. his throws to second looked like ephis pitches and he cant worth a lick. they have a right-handed bat in aaa.

  183. Good point john, Marson is the right handed contact bat that we need and he is stuck in aaa because of bako. DFA bako and bring marson up, even if someone claims bako, it cant be that hard to get a washed up no talent back up catcher.

  184. Bako is on the team because he plays very well defensively and knows how to handle a pitcher.

  185. Joe we already have a catcher that can do that. Ruiz is one of the best catchers in the league. We need a catcher that makes contact. Plus bako has an avg arm at BEST.

  186. Domingo Santana? If that’s who was referred to,he has not hit any additional homeruns for a little while now. Lately he has been alternating multi-strikeout games and sitting games out. It would not shock if he took a little trip back to the Dominican shortly.

    I doubt Marson will be awarded a roster spot prior to September 1- roster expansion. Defense is what matters at catcher, and they don’t need the chance of an inexperienced catcher mucking up the mentality of the pitching staff at this late date. Experience counts, defense counts, especially in the playoffs. So there is no need for Marson to be eligible for that either. Let him play every day at AAA, gain experience as allowable in non-playoff essential games. Then he can compete for a starting positioin next season.

    Bako made one bad throw. both current catchers are capable of hitting as needed, from time to time. There is no need for stats-oriented obsessions. That whole turn the line-up over thing is harped on by Chris Wheeler. If a team is going to score runs, they can just as easily start with one out as Zero outs.

    Halladay gives better chance to win world series. Top 3 pitchers matter in play-offs. Hamels and Blanton, likely a constant either way. So the 1st (or 3rd) guy would theoretically be a choice between Halladay and Happ. If you say there is equal chance to win either way, then, ergo you must consider Happ the equivalent of Halladay. If , as it plays out, Phillies draw Colorado Rockies, maybe Happ gets lit up by Colorado Rockies. Halladay gives a chance to himself outperforming any team’s top pitcher. Since he is reputed to feature around a 95 mph cutter to either side, hammer curve, power sinker, etc, the chance of sudden inefectiveness seems minimal. Nor is the chance of injury appear to be elevated , judging by past events. They have and can develop in future, prospects to fill for, say, 6 of them.

  187. echockeyman I think Ruiz might be the one to go. Does he have options. If he does he will be sent back to learn to hit.
    I think anyway.

  188. joe did you watch him throw? as i said his throws are like ephis pitches, seriously. and as far as handling pitchers did you see him handle hamels. like yesterday bako,s pitchers get everything up in the zone. marson is tearing it up its time for him to get a real taste.

  189. marfis
    I’ll bet you a golden you know what Marson comes up and double or nothing on no Halladay trade.

    Santana hit a three runs HR yesterday

  190. marfis bako,s 1st throw yesterday was a parabolla of 90degrees. his second pulled utley off the bag. and every throw takes 7 seconds to get there. no wonder their ss stole 3 bases. the guys a .200 hitter who,s terrible defensively. as far as 3 pitchers its nice to have 4 in a 7 game series. but i sure hope we get halliday for a reasonable price. im not real big on lee.

  191. Ruiz was big in the playoffs and WS last year he isn’t going anywhere this season.

    If I’m Amaro I’m willing to give up Drabek but not much else. If the deal doesn’t get done then Drabek should be a late season call up and used in the same manner the Rays used Price last year.

    He’s on my playoff roster ready to come out of the bullpen should Moyer have one of those nights where he’s getting lit up like a christmas tree.

  192. DMAR
    What would a stint in the minors hurt if he has the options.
    He obviously isn’t listening to Charlie.(per Charlie)

  193. Im pretty sure Ruiz is out of options he has to be, and I do not care he we do not keep bako he some one else claims him. The phillies messed up by DFA coste who was our consistent right handed bat off of the bench. The way to right the ship is to bring marson up. In one game last year he went 2-4 with a hr. Granted it was the natinals (as they would spell it), but AAA is close enough to mlb that his .302 avg shouldnt equate to .200. I do not care if he doesnt have power, we need contact. Marfis, turning the lineup over is crucial, the pitchers spot is an out or sacrifice 95% of the time. You cant sacrifice with two outs, so it basically turns the lineup over. By doing this, it allows rollins to get on base with no outs and run rampant along with victorino. By doing this, it allows utley,howard, ibanez, and due to that extra out maybe even werth. Turning the lineup over is something that is clearly needed. Leading off the inning with a pitcher is like starting with an out.

  194. Not sure if drabek is ready, would love to see him in a set up role lighting it up with his fastball to gain some confidence, but I dont know who he takes innings from being that madson and romero are normally 8th inning guys.

  195. We exactly together on Marson and the need to turnover.

    If they need to they could bring up Drabek late August as a ghost and only pitch him against noncontenders. But with Pedro and maybe Myers not much room or need unless …..

  196. i,d be a little concerned about bringing drabek up. he will need rest. but i have that gut ( ok?) feeling the halliday deal will get done. brunlett,s another one as nw has been saying all year. brunlett and bako two immortals.

  197. I can find no evidence that Santana hit anything yesterday on http://www.milb.com Yesterday had Did Not Play. The game before that it was 3AB , 2K. They will play the Braves starting at noon, maybe he will do better today.

    I believe Marson will not be called up until after September 1, because of jeopardizing the pitchers improved performance lately. That is what is important at Catcher, not somebody preferring a big hefty AAA batting average to the solid pros at The MLB level.

    Those steals were much a result of Jamie Moyers slow delivery and 80 mph pitches. The “ephus ” throw described had no chance to beat the runner , regardless, and should not have been thrown. The other throws also had no chance of getting the runner, but were good throws. There may have been a defensive lapse or two, in there. What do you Want? Perfection?

    There is also no need to replace Bruntlett, as the positional flexibility of having an adequate defender at numerous positions, gives greater benefit than a better chance of success in a once every couple of weeks pinch-hitting appearance. If they get another utility infielder they will have to trade for one, no one is giving any MLB level players away. It would be unwise to rush, say, Donald to MLB, when I believe he has not accrued any service time, and he would assume a deep bench role for some time. He would be better off traded. No other minor leaguer has near the level of experience or skill to warrant a move. If they acquire a utility infielder to replace Bruntlett they would need to be required to be defensively adequate and have positional flexibility to make it worthwhile. Offensively they would do nothing as they will not recieve enough AT-Bats to do anything. I.E. Miguel Cairo.

    They also will not bring up any young promising players not on the 40 man roster for any limited role, Because they will need rest from the minor league season, They have better, more experienced players to fill minor roles, and they will not want them accruing service time to get a quicker route to MLB arbitration, and MLB Free Agecy.

  198. marf i dont expect perfection just a much better contribution than bako has demonstrated. i just think he s not close. as far as brunlett its hard to let go of someone who you know what they will do, but as in the case of coste sometimes it must be done. at this time of year someone with character and better ability will be out there and i would expect the phils to grab him.

  199. I’m a fan or marson, and think he may well be the regular catcher next year. He does project as a better offensive player than Ruiz, maybe much better.

    He won’t be brought up before rosters expand, because

    (1) on the one hand they won’t give him Ruiz’ job because of the perception (true or not – I think it is true, but what’s important is that it looks like the Phillies share that impression) that Ruiz is good defensively and at handling pitchers, and

    (2) on the other hand, while he would clearly be an upgrade over bako, a minimal upgrade for just over one month (before rosters expand) of your back-up catcher is worth almost nothing in terms of wins or losses, and marson will benefit more by playing every day (why disrupt his current hot streak by sitting him on the bench?).

    Regarding number one, baseball teams are, rightly or wrongly (rightly IMO), conservative when it comes to replacing regulars on a successful team in mid season. It might be different if we were dealing with a position other than catcher, but the Phillies aren’t going to want to risk disruption of a pitching staff that, after a rocky start, has been very successful of late.

    As an aside, whatever one thinks about the back end of the Phillies roster, I’m baffled at how much people seem to be concerned about it. As annoying as it apparently is for some people to watch bako and bruntlett, whether or not those positions are upgraded will almost certainly have no significant impact on the Phillies success this year.

  200. “at this time of year someone with character and better ability will be out there and i would expect the phils to grab him.”

    If there is someone out there with bruntlett’s flexibility in terms of the positions he plays, who is adequate defensively, and better offensively, by all means the Phillies should pick him up. But I’m a little confused about the “character” comment. Are you suggesting that there is a character problem with bruntlett? If so, I’d like to see you back it up with some evidence.

  201. no im suggesting that in the phillies eyes brunlett,s knowledge of his limitations is a plus on the character side. as far as marson no one is suggesting ruiz’s position will be compromised. and the advantage of marson being called up now is the availability of having him in the playoffs. as far as disrupting his resurgance he ” can” be given the same or more ab,s as bako who is utterly useless, i.e. if in the terrible scenerio ruiz were hurt would you want a .150 – .200 hitter with no apparent defensive prowess or at a minimum a .250, AT A MINIMUM, hitter who is better defensively and would be hard pressed to handle pitchers as poorly as bako.

  202. Well John I’m not saying it would be irrational, just that I don’t see much the benefit – and I see the downside, fulltime play for marson versus Bako’s playing time – that is, I assume that he would indeed get all of bako’s playing time but that would still put him on the bench most of the time. As for getting more, how would that happen – he would need to take the playing time from Ruiz, and I don’t see that hapepning for the reasons stated.

    In any event, for better or worse, it’s not the sort of move that the Phillies tend to make. They are (usually) pretty conservative in that sense.

  203. On Bruntlett: You can’t bat .128 and stay on an MLB roster. Even Ozzie Smith couldn’t justify a .128 avg with his glove.

    People complained about Taguchi last year when he was at least hitting .220…this is brutal and UC will keep using him until he is cut. Its sad that we don’t have one middle infielder in our system that could step in and give us more than Bruntlett is doing right now.

  204. Larrym: The backend of the roster isn’t much concern as it pertains to the regular season(given the current landscape) but it can mean everything in the playoffs.

    Stairs worries me he can’t hit anything but a fastball and lately he’s been missing some really good ones. Mayberry and Bruntlett our 2 RH bats off the bench…not good and not a threat for the opposing manager to pull his lefty off the mound.

    One if not both of those guys will be replaced come playoffs. My opinion Cairo in exchange for Bruntlett.

  205. DMAR

    But that’s not really a problem with the back end of the roster – that is, the last couple of slots. That’s a problem of the front end (if you will) of the bench (combined with an imbalanced lineup in terms of left/right). You don’t expect your big right-handed bat off the bench to come from your backup catcher or utility infield guy. And your Cairo proposal, whatever it’s merits (I say meh, wouldn’t be a horrible move but probably wouldn’t help much) isn’t going to fix that problem. Is Cairo going to be a good ” threat for the opposing manager to pull his lefty off the mound?” Not hardly.

    Ironically, you do identify the bigegst problem of the bench – biggest by far – the need for a solid righthanded bat – but filling that need almost certainly WON’T involve replacing Bako or Bruntlett.

  206. The reports today on espn, mention any trade for Halladay starts with Drabek, Happ, Brown, and others, I love Halladay but we must pass on this deal, I want to keep our farm system going and taking out that much top talent is crazy, for a one year pitcher, if it was for Haren of arizona then because of his age and contract would really think about it more, but still relucant to do it.

  207. It is awesome to see that they are diligently working on signing many more of the draft picks…as a minor league fan it is always tough to see them traded, but just for a second…what is the likelihood that the Phillies realize that if/when they do trade for Halladay they will raid the fridge so to speak…so is it even more important that they sign as many high end draft picks to restock the firdge? An example would be Travis d’Arnaud, as it seems he is high on the list, so signing Susac to replace him would be wise… Stewart to replace Taylor or Brown, Colvin to replace Knapp, etc… Or is there any chance they sign some of the draft picks and include them in the trade? Sign & trade…that way it costs us only cash.. as these guys are farther away from the majors and have a much longer road to climb. What is the likelihood that Toronto would be considering any of the current draft picks in trade talks?

  208. Larrym: Good Point. I only mention Cairo because of his versatility to play any of the infield positions in a double switch situation but now that you mention it I can’t see them making a double switch in the playoffs.

    I hope everyone is in agreement this team as it stands is going to win the NL East so right now it should be all about looking at playoff match ups.

    I’ll also go out on a limb and say this year the AL will give us either the Yankees or the Red Sox in the WS. Ok maybe thats not going out on a limb but If that is the case what do each of those teams have that the Phillies don’t?

  209. Draft picks- you can not trade draft picks. If a draft pick signs they can not be traded until one full year after the date of their signing. The Pete Incaviglia rule.

  210. Draft picks cannot be traded until a full calendar year after they sign their contract. I think there may be an exception if the pick goes on the 40 man roster but I’m not sure of that. None of current unsigned or signed 2009 draft picks will be in this deal.

  211. Geez,
    I thought we were talking about Drabek, Donald, Carrasco, and Taylor. That is more than enough and a tough pill to swallow. I will stick with the original concern: Who and what are we bidding against????? I cannot give up both Drabek and Happ, can’t do both. Must sub in for one of those two. You are going to have to give up either Taylor or Brown. That is obvious. It comes down to the internal evaluations of our own guys. The Phils need to be right on with this deal. This will affect the team for 10 years.

  212. That’s likely what Ricciardi is trying to do….

    i.e. Make Rube think:

    “No way we give up Drabek AND Happ…how about Drabek, Brown and Taylor instead?”

    “Throw in Donald too?”

    “Okay!”

    Ricciardi still wins in that scenario.

  213. it has to be either Drabek or Happ; plus Brown or Taylor and then pick from others like Donald, Marson, D’Arnaud, Carrasco, etc. But that is where we need to be spot on. If we like D’Arnaud better than Marson, we need to hold the right cards. But the deal needs to evolve from the number one guy down. So, if it is Drabek, then you give up what you consider the lesser of Brown and Taylor. If it is Happ, then maybe you have to give up the better of the two.

  214. Any deal will include both Drabek and Happ. J.P. needs a stud pitching prospect in return and Drabek is the only one they have. Plus, if they don’t include Happ they have seven starters including Pedro. Lopez can be quickly cut but that’s still six starters. Don’t get your hopes up, they aren’t eating Moyer’s salary.

  215. With the Cards getting Holiday for Bret Wallace their best prospect that takes a club out of the Halladay derby

  216. I don’t know, the Cards still have Colby Rasmus, but I don’t know about the rest of their farm system.

  217. I would guess at this point it is pretty much a given that the Phillies are really the strongest potential trading partner out there… as the other teams either do not have the bullets (St.L 1 less bullet) or the quality that TO is looking for… and not playing in the American League East! That should help a bit in what we have to offer… that being said , TO can just say ‘No’ to a trade… As much as Halladay is a stud, would it be smarter to go after Lee, etc if the asking price does not involve say multiple top core prospects?

  218. theres no way the phillies will deal drabek and happ. amaro is far from a foolish man. as far as six starters martinez is one terrible start from being released. if they keep happ fine if they keep drabek he,s few innings left in his arm this year. they,ll err on safetie,s sake. therefore your definites are hamels blanton happ moyer whoever they trade for, i hope not lee, a personel preference. but dont count on anything from pedro. as far as taylor or brown as much as i like taylor brown is a better time fit for the phils. taylor must play in mlb. next year. another year in aaa would be a joke, and he will not supplant vic, werth, or ibanez. but in 2011 brown will. taylor and drabek, donald for halliday. the scary thing is we have apprx. 5 years in our inf. and no prospects in our system, unless the hand of god comes down and cures hewitt. when howard, utley, and rollins are gone well suddenly realize how good they are. they better draft very, very well to replace them but it will be almost impossible.

  219. I find it hard to believe that some of the people out here seem to want to hold out on trading for the best pitcher in baseball in favor of keeping JA Happ, who the consensus here held was at best a #4 type starter at the beginning of the year. Drabek may in fact develop into a star pitcher, arm and maturity issues aside, but what are the chances that he gives the Phillies what they get in Halladay, which is MLB’s best pitcher for one, possibly two, stretch drives. Taylor and Brown are great prospects, but they are blocked, as is Donald. I’m not saying throw all those names in, but again, it’s hard to weigh their potential over Halladay’s actuality and come up against the trade. Finally, what’s the worst-case scenario here? (Besides something freakish happening like Halladay going down with a career-ending injury) I say it’s that the Phillies choke in the postseason this year, then have a down year next year which leaves them far back in the standings around the trade deadline, in which case they can shop Halladay to a contender and get a decent package of prospects in return. Or, he leaves as a free agent and they end up with two draft picks. Anyway none of the possible outcomes–aside from the aforementioned injury, which is always a possibility with all players–seems like such an apocalypse to me. I say make the trade.

  220. I don’t think the price for Lee is much lower and the Indians have a much better shot at contending next year the the Jays so they might not be inclined to move him unless they’re bowled over.

  221. I prefer halladay over lee but does anyone like the idea of lee and v. martinez in a trade? Do we have the chips to do this? Would drabek, brown, C. ruiz, d’arnaud, donald, knapp, carrasco get it done? i think we would have several years w/ both of those guys but we’d better sign every draft pick this year and a couple of nice internationals because we would fall to the bottom 4th of minors if we don;t quickly restock and get lucky ie shreve, may, cosart, gose, may, santana, dugan, hewitt, singleton become studs!

  222. If you told me three years ago I could trade Billy Wagner for Joe Blanton and Roy Halladay I would have jumped at the opportunity. Adrian Cardenas & Kyle Drabek were the compensation picks for losing the left-hander whose career is now over. Josh Outman, the other main piece in the Blanton trade, is likely gone until 2011 with TJ surgery. The value for one player, Billy Wagner, is staggering if this deal is done, the phillies not only drafted well, but gave themselves the prospects to help the big club contend for the foreseeable future.
    I was at first hesitant about moving Taylor, Drabek, Donald, D’Arnaud & (kendrick or carpenter), but the combination of talent at the big league level plus the compensation picks for possible departures will keep us at the top of the NL once players start to depart via free agency. Howard and Rollins do not need to be dealt with until 2012, Feliz until 2011, Utley 2014, Ibanez 2012, Victorino 2012, Werth 2011, Catching should be an internal solution. The Phillies, even after trading the above players, have plenty of time to worry about possible replacements/re-signings, and will have taylor or brown to step in for either werth or ibanez when the time is right. Trade for Halladay and worry about the future in 2011, 12 and beyond. We will still have plenty of promising prospects to follow, but the club in south philadelphia is what should always come first and foremost.

  223. Just to expand a little bit on the point I made above, about worst-case scenarios in a trade for Halladay (ie, they don’t end up contending next year) look at what happened with Matt Holliday: The A’s gave up a bunch of prospects for him over the winter, things didn’t work out, so they traded him to the Cards today–for what analysts say is a better crop of prospects than they gave up to the Rockies. So they basically arbitraged him. Anyway, I’m not saying that trading for Halladay won’t be costly, but that he could be turned back into blue chip prospects somewhere down the line–barring a major injury. The other possibility is that the Phillies make the playoffs both years with Halladay and lose anyway, but I’ll take that chance gladly.

  224. Andrew
    Here is the problem as I see. You picked the trade apart on player at a time but in total.all the player,all the cash and possible club house attitude the scales are not balanced
    e.g. You trade Marson ,Ruiz goes down. You then have to trade more player to get a decent catcher. In a way the extra
    players in THAT trade become part and parcel of what you gave up for Halladay. A lot of what Happ does tonight will effect the goings on. Much more fun than a few years ago.

  225. 4:50pm: Ed Price of AOL FanHouse hears that the Jays are considering trading Halladay to the Phillies for Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald and Lou Marson. However, no deal appears to be close.

    latest from MLBTraderumors.com, I think that’s the package most of us expected. I’d love for Happ to be the name instead of Drabek though.

  226. I would do that trae in a second.

    Blues, We need Happ for a playoff push. We shouldn’t trade our #3 pitcher in the midst of a pennant race.

  227. Halliday needs to sign a long contract extension, no less then 5 years, if the Phillies are to give top notch talent like all of you are suggesting. My preference, he’s not worth the price of a Drebek, Taylor, let alone what all of you are suggesting. The Phillies are even better this year then last year when we won it all. So what’s all this the sky is fall if we don’t get Halliday. We’ll be just fine.

  228. Just hope we keep winning so Ruben doesn’t panic and give away the store.

    I don’t trust Ruben to arbitrage Halladay if he’s planning to leave, either. We haven’t been real good at trading for prospects. (Abreu, Rolen, Schilling…)

  229. Sources have informed the Philadelphia Inquirer that the Blue Jays want Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ and Dominic Brown for ace Roy Halladay.

    That’d be a whole lot of talent heading out the door. The Phillies have hinted that Drabek might be untouchable and Happ is currently a member of the starting rotation. “I prefer the horse,” manager Charlie Manuel said Friday, alluding to the idea that one star pitcher is more valuable than a cluster of prospects. Well, now we get to see how much he really meant it.
    Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

  230. why bother ever quoting a manager in this instance(especially an older one)…WHat one wouldnt take the horse?he doesnt care about guys years away from the big club…waste of print space

  231. i,m sure most of you have heard that riccardi has told the inquirer that he want,s brown, drabek, and happ. since this is an opening salvo in negotiations i would think ruben would come back with brown or taylor and happ or drabek. jays will counter with brown drabek and 2nd tier ( i.e. donald) which i think ruben will moan as he smiles inside and says yes. just a guess but deal will be done by monday. thank god since this all halliday all the time is getting tiresome.

  232. Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek and JA Happ is a fair deal for Halladay.

    The only way to get a deal done, is to give up something that hurts. You don’t get a top 3 Major League pitcher for your B prospects. In my opinion, the only player in that threesome that I think the Phillies could possiby regret giving up is Dominic Brown.

  233. I say no to J.A. Happ,Kyle Drabek and Dom Brown for Halladay and start rooting hard for Pedro.

    If they would take Mayberry Jr. and Donald instead of Brown I say yes and start rooting for a contract extension for Halladay and continued development for Knapp.

  234. Mayberry and Donald aren’t even in the same category as Brown…not one in their right mind would do that substitution.

  235. RWG, that is so funny. What in the world would Toronto want with John Mayberry and Jason Donald? When you make a trade, the other team has to get something.

    Reminds me of last year when every poster wanted to jump off a bridge because the Phillies actually gave up something of value for a good starting pitcher (Joe Blanton). Ridiculous.

  236. Brown, Drabek and Happ would hurt, but it’s probably similar to what it’s going to take to get this done. I wouldn’t love (or even like that deal), but I wouldn’t go nuts about it either.

  237. Phillers

    The Phillies are close to reaching an agreement on a six-figure bonus with RHP Steven Inch (Edmonton, Alberta), their sixth-round draft pick and a member of the Canadian National Junior team. *

  238. In a year or two Happ and Drabek will be winning more games then Halladay, so what’s the point.

  239. get used to it the phils will without a doublt trade either brown or taylor, and drabek or happ. however i would try to subsitute carrasco for happ. player who losing could hurt the most? marson. brown or taylor we still have one. drabek happ or carrasco? we knoe what happ can do. WE MUST RESIGN HALLIDAY TO AN EXTENSION, although it will not stop the deal and shouldnt. if your really concerned be concerned about a future all-star infielder. especially imo at ss or 3rd.

  240. Here’s a question to change the topic a bit. If the Phillies trade away prospects, will you still root for those players in Toronto uniforms?

  241. It was always in my mind that either Brown or Taylor would be the lead piece in any trade offer. All you have to do is re-read my previous posts to know that. Apparently nobody does that before they jump on a post.

    Mayberry and Donald don’t equal Brown, I know, but when you are including a potential ace in Drabek with a 15 year career in front of him and a possible rookie of the year in Happ maybe they could accept something less to complete the deal.

  242. no. as far as the phillies not matching what toronto wants dont get excited. do you think amaro will say great just take who you want? it,s negotitions. ais above now toronto will counter. we will have to give up brown/taylor, drabek/happ, but not both. thats the sticking point if i could hazard a guess. now toronto will say o.k. instead of happ we want carrasco plus an extra player, i.e. stutes, worley, donald or knapp. the phillies will say no to knapp and the deal will probably be brown, drabek, carrasco and donald. o.k. with me, if thats it. nice rotation. halliday, hamels, blanton, and happ. btw park to my great surprise has beeb great in long relief. madson,s fine, lidge imo will be totally back and myers is there as well. please dont take pedro seriosly is he suddenly going to be better 2 years older after getting rocked the past 2 years? i douldt it.

  243. Alan:
    I would root for them if I considered them to be good people as well as good baseball players.
    There’s no point in hoping for failure to justify a trade.

  244. alan my no was regarding rooting for our pieces. nothing personal but it would be tough to see brown drabek do great. although i hope they, if its them, they have long happy lives and good but not great careers. f. jenkins, sandberg, and franco just killed me.

  245. i wouldnt do the Happ, Drabek, and Brown deal. How about Carrasco, Knapp, Mayberry, Donald, and Marson.

  246. I think it’s going to get done. If this happens it will be one of the most exciting days in Phillies history.

  247. Max, why would Toronto do that? Come on. To get the guy you have to give up at least one stud. Knapp is still too young to be considered a stud prospect.

    I think this is going to get done as well. It better get done.

  248. max i think the deal is virtually done. ais brown,drabek,carrasco and someone lower. it would be nice if riccardi would take what you offered but i have a feeling he would be fired immediately. i also believe and hope that hallidays next start will be wednsday as a phillie. btw i know its a non probability but someday it would be nice to see my favorite player from the 60,s phils along with callison, ritchie allen in the hall. never happen but what could have been.

  249. I think the Phillies are in it too deep now to back out. I have no problem with the Dom Brown, Drabek and Happ request.

    At the end of the season, last year, guys on this board would have been jumping up and down if they knew the Phillies would be able to get Roy Halladay without giving up Carrasco, Marson, Taylor, Knapp, D’arnud or Donald.

    Guys are so possesive and greedy with these prospects.

  250. mike77 –

    The prospect list changes year to year. This year the Phillies have legit top 25 prospects and Amaro would make a mistake if he traded two of their top prospects plus Happ. Its simply a bad trade.

  251. Have my twitter set to follow mlbtraderumors, Jon Heyman, and other various mlb sources:

    At 2:12 – @mlbtraderumors: Phillies reject Blue Jays’ proposal. Head on over to MLBTR for more updates. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    At 2:25 – @SI_JonHeyman: drabek, happ, brown is too much. drabek or happ should do the trick (plus brown or taylor). still like phils in derby.

  252. It’s gonna happen. Its a matter of the details at this point. Unless another team comes in and simply blows Ricciardi away.

  253. More [posturing] updates:

    4:06 pm: @jaysonst (jayson stark): Halladay updates: Jays say they won’t make deal w Phillies w/o both Drabek & Happ; Angels, Dodgers also get lists. http://tiny.cc/azU6z

  254. Serious question: Ryan Franklin was late to the park but his beard was on time. Do you fine him? Sheesh, his beard should have it’s own number.

    Oh, and did Kinney and Larue ride horses to the game? They could be in the apple dumpling gang.

    just trying to lighten things up while we discuss Doc Halladay…

  255. he’s been in LHV after starting the year in the Rockies org, had been a closer in LHV (i think) and had been doing pretty well there, only allowing 1 ER since at least June 22 there…I wouldn’t say he “stinks” after holding one of the better teams in the NL to 1 run.

  256. Forget it go get Sherril or someone who can pitch relief .. Make it two.
    The odd thing is just when the starters starting pitching longer the bullpen gets sick. Anyone who thinks that baseball is
    “if I do this THAT will happen” is not watching closely.

  257. In the World Series, against Boston, you would have to get the lead before even getting to Sherril. Guys who want the reliever before getting the #1 or 2 starter are not thinking logically.

    Hamels vs Beckett @ Fenway
    Blanton vs Lester @ Fenway
    Happ vs Dice-K/Smoltz
    Moyer vs Anybody

    When are the Phillies going to have the lead, in order to use Sherril?

  258. x factor very good. nice to see some humor. i get the feeling riccardi is a nut.

  259. NEPP Says

    Sherrill would likely be prohibitively expensive.

    Like I said Nepp or someboy (good preferred)

    Btw After Knapp went down ,one would of thought to limit
    the innings on these young pitchers. Worley seems like
    he is gassed also. Would it hurt to limit everyother game
    or (horrors) skip a turn.

  260. mike77
    Boston is not actually shoe-in. When Beckett is on it doesn’t matter who and when he is off it doesn’t matter. Is that May
    Lester or June Lester. Boston has good pitchers but they put
    their pant……….. I like to put it more clearly no matter what is done about Starters relief is a bigger priority Now.

  261. Just keep in mind my post of July 20:

    “Only way the Pedro signing makes sense is that the Phils would rather send Happ than Drabek. The rotation would then be Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer and Martinez.

    They might be seeing the end game as offering a package of Happ, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald, Gose. Something like that. That might be the best they will go, and it is probably the most attractive offer to Toronto, SHORT OF a package including Drabek.

    That package includes a bunch of good players but will have only one guy who projects as an AS (Taylor). Drabek/Taylor would be two, and Phils are trying to keep the potential all-stars in the fold.”

  262. Would people do a deal where its Drabek, Happ and Donald instead of Brown? Perhaps that would be a way for Rube to make the deal and be able to justify giving up 2 pitchers.

  263. when push comes to shove i think you have to make the deal either way although it will probably be drabek brown and someone. without brown i think if you could turn brown into a number 3 like a pittsburgh guy or someone like that it may fly better maybe not. when i mentioned negotiations i meant with a g.m. who was not playing games which im beginning to thing riccardi maybe doing. brown drabek knapp. CERTAINLY ENOUGH if your serious. more than enough. at some point amaro may have to say this guy is crazy and walk away.

  264. i’d like to see it be Drabeck, Carrasco, Donald and either d’arnaud or marson.

    we keep the two stud OF’s

    we can afford to trade one of our three catcher prospects, then go out and sign susac

    we can afford to give up two pitchers because our rotation for the next two years will be Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Happ and whoever ( carpenter, martinez, moyer, lopez, ect)

    if they insist on an OF maybe Gose? or a PTBNL like a Savery, Flande, Worley type..

    isn’t it great to be able to throw out all of these names? It doesnt seem that long ago when guys in our second/third tier now were our top prospects

  265. just listenong to gammons on espn and its finally becoming commonplace to consider the 3 big market teams as yankees, red sox and phillies. an interesting fact after today the phillies will become the only team to outdraw the red sox on a percentage basis in baseball history. 101.6 percent of seats sold. btw has anyone seen the espy,s i missed them and their never on.

  266. to me Happ Carasco Taylor and Donald must be an awfully good offer cause I would not do it. I think we should move on to getting a right handed bat and relief pitcher. by the way Pat the Bat tell us more about Steven Inch signing.

  267. In David Murphy’s blog it had a blurb about him being close to signing a six figure deal.

  268. it seems we keep lowering the offer which i like…I think Toronto is getting nervous…they asked for joe saunders, wood and aybar….not exactly a stud filled package(saunders has come back to reality from last year, wood has been up and down and hasnt done anything to show his stardom yet and aybar is a nice middle infielder)…Ruben should just say we are out of this go take that Angels offer…JP will come running back for what we offer

  269. That deal of Happ, Carrasco, Taylor and Donald is probably close to what they want. My guess is they end up giving Brown instead of Taylor plus a lower level guy.

  270. if youre toronto you would really want a package of joe saunders, brandon wood, and aybar over drabek, taylor, donald/marson, carrasco?cuz it seems the phils would likely pull the trigger for that…if he prefers the angels package(and ive watched all three of those guys alot) then thats the reason the Toronto fans want his head and his team sucks every year

  271. an offer of brown, drabek carrasco and donald is my approximation too. more than anyone in the running can offer. i,m beginning to have my doublts about riccardi,s sanity or ego. i,m happy that brown is thought of as the better prospect than taylor. i cant see how. but basically a deal of drabek, brown happ is a deal of happ for halliday. with taylor brown becomes expendable, drabek could or could not be great, but happ solidifys the rotation. i think the one thing we all worry about is this team getting old all at once. keep your eye on barnes and hope marson is not in the deal. other than that lets hope the farm continues to produce so free agency does not become our answer. btw i think thats what is meant by the boston model. replace one player a year to keep young. i.e. marson 2010 and taylor 4th outfielder. a 3rd baseman must be in our plans, although i love feliz i think he,s 34, or 35.

  272. im sorry but i cant justify putting 2 top 25 prospects in a deal when other teams are struggling to find or put in 1…we are bidding against ourselves…screw jp let him reject our offer and go ahead and see the garbage offers out there outside of ours…im willing to pass on halladay…And its bs that they dont “have” to trade him….these same quality offers wont be on the table next year when they are 20 games back at the deadline and um “have” to move him…im starting the pass on Halladay bandwagon although im not expecting many people joining me

  273. I’m pleased that Mr. Amaro turned down the demand of Drabek, Happ and Brown. He’s 100% correct to haggle.

    Which name is the sticking point, Drabek, Happ or Brown? Most here say Drabek, others say Brown, fewer still say Happ.

    For me giving up Happ along with Drabek is the sticking point. Happ is more important over the next 2 seasons than Drabek or Brown and this deal is all about trading the future for the present.

    Sure, Drabek and Brown have higher ceilings and Happ’s numbers will likely regress but what makes Happ special is between his ears. He’s not easily rattled. He reminds me of Andy Pettitte and could be a solid #3 starter for years to come. I don’ t think he’ll fold under playoff pressure. If JP insists on Happ then the deal has less appeal in terms of the present so we would have to keep Drabek, a future 1 or 2.

    Subbing out Brown for two other prospects isn’t really fixing the problem. For example, Marson and Donald along with Happ and Drabek could well be even worse. Starting pitching is the key so we need to hold on to Happ or Drabek, preferably Happ, again because he’s contributing now.

    But just how important is Roy Halladay? And isn’t Brown our 5-tooler of the future?

    There seems to be a philosophical split between those who feel the “everyday” player is more valuable than the pitcher who only goes every five days. Even after a hundred plus years of hitting a pitched ball with a stick people get this confused. It really is all about the starting pitcher, he dictates the action, no one else.

    Bill Conlin has been covering baseball closely for longer than many of us have been alive and still he was wrong to say he’d take a 5-tooler over an ace. Perhaps it’s because he’s a beat writer who has to submit a story every day. Hitters always have more flash. Chicks dig the long ball. No question about it the 5-tooler is flashier and sexier than the ace. Most people would rather see a 10-9 game than a 1-0 pitchers duel. Just look at the changes made by the custodians of the game: smaller parks, livelier ball, lower mounds, smaller strike zone — everything to give the hitter an advantage and the fans a good show.

    Still the starting pitcher has more impact than the everyday player.

    In 1 game an ace faces roughly 20 hitters while in 5 games the slugger hits about 20 times. So the matchups of an ace in 1 game is roughly equal to that of a slugger over 5 games with one major difference: you can neutralize any hitter by giving him the free pass but there’s no way to avoid an ace. The pitcher controls the game.

    Say Albert Pujols hits two home runs in his first 2 AB, you’re waving 4 fingers for him the rest of the night. Say Halladay strikes out the side in the first 2 innings — there’s not a thing you can do about it to avoid him. If Pujols is on fire I might even walk him with the bases full. There’s no equivalent to neutralize a hot starting pitcher. You can pinch hit a couple times against him but that’s it, you’re not actually avoiding him like a walk avoids a hitter.

    No player means more to a team than their ace. We need Halladay, there’s no getting around it. So if the deal is held up, fine, but hold it up over Happ, not Brown. JP Ricciardi won’t hold up the deal over Happ. Drabek maybe, but not Happ. JP wants the future, we want the present. Asking for Happ is out of line with our needs and we can satisfy JP without losing any current contributors.

    Mr. Amaro, please stick to your guns, sub out Happ, and get the deal done!

    Oh, and for those who say the bullpen is the priority over starting pitching I strongly disagree. Halladay saves your pen but giving up Happ and starting Moyer and Martinez 2 out of 5 games is going to kill any bullpen regardless. No matter who you have in the pen they will be worn out by October that way. This is the crux of the issue in keeping Happ. No one in you bullpen, even the closer, is more important than any of your top 3 starting pitchers. Never has been, never will, for the simple reason that you need a lead before you can protect it. Don’t forget the Colorado playoff series where Myers had no impact at all.

    Sorry this was so long, didn’t have time to make it shorter.

  274. Can someone explain to me why Brown is considered a better prospect than Taylor. I have never personally seen either of them play but I have followed their records on paper consistently. When I compare their minor league records it seems to my untrained eye that Taylor appears to be (so far) a better prospect. I can see that Brown is 2 years younger but how can you know that he will equal Taylor’s numbers 2 years from now? Also shouldn’t we take into consideration the fact that Taylor’s superior numbers were attained in higher leagues than Brown’s? The data that I am comparing is given below. Also, from what I read it seems that both are good fielders with exceptional arms. Can someone enlighten me.

    Taylor:
    First year (age 22) (A & A+ ball) : .346 BA, 19 HR, 15 SB
    Second year (age 23) (A2 & A3 ball) : .328 BA, 17 HR, 20 SB SB20SB (so far this year)

    Brown:
    First year (age 20) (A ball) : .291 BA, 9 HR, 22 SB
    Second year (age 21) (A+ ball) .304 BA, 9 HR, 14 SB

  275. The Phillies reportedly have their top scout, Charley Kerfeld, watching Cliff Lee pitch today.

    Both the Inquirer and SI’s Jon Heyman think that Lee is emerging as the Phillies’ plan B to Roy Halladay. At the very least, showing interest in Lee will give them increased leverage in the Halladay talks.
    Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

    starting to sweat yet jp?

  276. Lenny:

    Brown is several years younger and is really only about a level behind Taylor (but for a broken hand, Brown would be in AA right now). Also, the reports of Brown’s skills and demeanor are outstanding. He also has shown signs of really breaking out this year.

    I love Taylor, even more than I like Brown, but you wanted the explanation about what others think. That’s the explanation.

  277. Personally, if the Phils were to change their package today and substitute Brown for Taylor, it’s a trade package I could live with. That being Happ, Carrasco, Brown and Donald. Toronto is very close to overplaying their hand. That trade consideration is fair and is a lot more than the Mets got for Santana (and, to me, Santana is slightly better than Halladay).

    We need to also start thinking about Plan “B”. Cliff Lee, Zach Duke and others. What’s a fair trade value for Lee – Happ and Brown? Happ, Carrasco, and Marson?

    It’s all very interesting. I am glad that Ruben is pushing back. It’s very easy to get “taken” in this type of situation.

    Also, the extent that Toronto is (at least internally) using the Colon trade as an historical precedent, that’s ridiculous. The Expos, in retrospect, got screwed in that trade (just as they got screwed in Langston deal about a decade before that). It’s easy to take the most stupid and lobsided trades in history and use them as a bench mark if you’re overreaching. But that’s not how the Phils should view the situation.

  278. IF its true the phillies offered donald who could start right now, carrasco, taylor a stud who would start in right field and happ that’s a lot three major league players plus a good young pitching prospect, for a one year two month player, screw them, let them take the two first round choices when he leaves.

  279. if cliff lee saves us 2 good prospects im all for him…our defense and lineup makes a fringe #1 into a legit #1 we DO NOT need to overpay for halladay(and yes the packages being thrown around are overpaying considering lack of options for the jays not based on halladays talent level)

  280. x-factor the sticking point is happ. amaro will not give him up. as for screwing riccardi its something we all feel like doing but negotiations are much more unemotional to be sucessful. after we make a deal, which i think we will, we can screw everybody by winning another ws.

  281. Lee is going to ths dodgers , the trade is Lee and Martinez for Loney and others.That’s want on mlb trade rumors.

  282. loney and “others” for lee and martinez??? well unless the others is Kershaw thered better be a whole lot of “others” to get that deal done

  283. Replacing Kershaw or Billingsley with Cliff Lee isn’t much of a net gain for the Dodgers. Odd trade to make for the Dodgers.

  284. I love this trade talk and this site. However I think some folks on here need to come to grips that a trade of this stature absolutely has to come at a significant price to the farm system.

    And it is worth it people.

    The Phillies have two world series victories since the 1800’s. Think about that. Nobody should be untouchable. I believe Amaro is doing the right thing with how he is negotiating. But this deal has to get done. The current line up is way too good to miss this opportunity, and demands every effort be made to go for another WS.

    Thanks for this site! great job!

  285. Had a crazy thought, could Amaro be looking at both Lee and Halladay? The Phils have the money, lee is a bargain and halladay is a lot. The phils have the talent. 3 or 4 players for each? You can name who goes where. If you got a 2 or 3 year window, the phils should come strong or don’t come at all!!

  286. At this point, with these standings, I see no need to rip apart
    the farm system. A waiver deal in August for any number of
    pitchers is possible IF needed. You may not get exactly the greatest pitcher in the world but he will be healthy. We all know what less major changes are needed and development that is possible.
    Having said all that Martinez and Lee is much,much better
    package than Halladay alone. Then you could give up
    Marson and not have to look at second rate catchers(yes I said it)

  287. Never turn down an opportunity to get an ace. Prospects are cultivated to serve the team in whichever way will best benefit the organization as a whole. If that’s a trade…so be it. Halladay is worth it. And the names being tossed around are expendable. The system is deep and will recover. Is the point of all this to win a WS or not??

  288. I would rather not strip the farm for Cliff Lee. He is no where near the pitcher Roy Halladay is. Plus he is a left hander. There are no significant left handed lineups standing in the way of the World Series. The Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals are all right hand heavy and (the Red Sox) Fenway Park is death to left hand pitching.

    Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, JA Happ and Jaime Moyer against the monster. No good.

  289. Yes it is, however not at the expense of gutting your farm…Its one thing to gut ur farm giving up say a couple top 50-100 players but its another giving up 2 top 20 prospects…Yes the minors is served to help the organization win, but that doesnt always mean to trade them to win…I believe we just won a WS on the backs of our once beloved former prospects

  290. Mike did you conveniently leave off the Yankees(who, if you missed it are now ahead of the Sox?) Lefties would look pretty good in that scenario, no?you cant make trades based on what park you HOPE your playing a world series in or what lineups you might face if youre lucky enough to get that far

  291. I don’t believe people truly appreciate how good Halladay is. He is either the best or second best pitcher in probably the world. And we’re worried about drabek and Brown?

  292. “I believe we just won a WS on the backs of our once beloved former prospects”

    Yeah, and the same guys who don’t want to trade JA Happ and Kyle Drabek for Roy Halladay are same guys who did’nt want to trade a one (1) tool middle infielder and Left hander with no command for Joe Blanton.

    “you conveniently leave off the Yankees’

    I left off the yankees cause they are a switch hitting team and it does’nt matter if the pitcher is left or Right against them. But since you brought them up… Roy Halladay dominates them more than anyone else.

  293. “I believe we just won a WS on the backs of our once beloved former prospects”

    Certainly not without the help of a few select veterans. And this crew needs a select veteran.

    This better get done…

  294. JT said it best:
    “Prospects are cultivated to serve the team in whichever way will best benefit the organization as a whole. If that’s a trade…so be it. Halladay is worth it. And the names being tossed around are expendable.”

    Losing Dom Brown or Michael Taylor would hurt, but if you lose one, the other is left. I would rather keep the right hand bat, because Gose and Collier are LH.

  295. Yep. Actually, the more I think about that comment, the more irritated I get.

    I guess we shouldn’t have traded prospect Michael Bourn as part of the deal for Brad Lidge. After all, we won the WS on the backs of our prospects.

    I guess we shouldn’t have traded Josh Outman for Joe Blanton (never mind we wouldn’t have made the playoffs w/o Blanton). But after all, we won the WS on the backs of our prospects.

    I guess we shouldn’t have acquired Jamie Moyer for a pair of prospects. After all, we won the WS on the back of our prospects.

    There are two things in life I know…
    1. Predicting the future (forecasting) is always wrong.
    2. But forecasting closer to the present is ALWAYS more accurate than predicting further in time.

    I won’t be happy giving up a bunch for Cliff Lee. But this is Roy Halladay. We need this guy, now. Get it done!

  296. You are missing the point Lee and Martinez. That is the deal
    the Dodgers are seeking. Martinez is only 30. That is a deal worth doing.

  297. Bob seriously, do you really think you just made valid analogies? If you dont believe that we won the ws on the backs of our OWN prospects then youre living in a fantasy world….No team has EVERY player from their farm and quoting the lidge trade for bourn(a fringe 4th OFer at the time), and josh outman (a prospect who the phillies didnt even have a definitive role for) as back ups to your point is laughable…We are talking about 2 top 20 prospects with the possibility of a top 50 on top of it, for a year and 2 months of Halladay…Id say there is a “slight” difference between them and um, bourn and outman(the examples you used).

  298. You should have seen the outrage over Outman last year. This board treated Outman like a God. Even PP owned up to calling that trade a mistake.

    And having Halladay for only 1+ seasons is just as much an assumption as these top 20 prospects being any good in the majors. The difference is, we know Halladay will be good for at least that time.

    If you want another WS, this squad needs another starter. Get this guy.

  299. EZ

    You are hoping these prospects turn into great major leaguers. They are all a world away right now. How good does David Price look this year? Sure he’ll probably have a great and long carreer, but he looks overmatched.

    Halladay is the best pitcher right now. We may never again see a phillies offense as potent as the one we have today. Maybe never. Play for this years WS. Not the one five years from now when Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, and co are gone.

    And I’ll take two WS runs with Halladay in that season in-a-half run he’s here thank you very much. And if he leaves…I’ll take the draft picks as comp.

  300. Guys cried like babies when they traded A-ball middle infielder, Cardenas for Blanton. After all, some said he was our BEST prospect last year. All that crying, about a trade that gave us a chance to get in the playoff, let alone win the world series.

    That happened just last year and fellas like ez e have’nt learned a thing. Getting emotionally attached to prospects, when the opportunity to win right now is right in front of you.
    I don’t get it. You’d rather not win it all this year, because you would rather have a ‘chance’ to still be pretty good in 5 years? What sense does that make?

  301. We all know and understand what you’re trying to say mike77, but you can probably find a less offensive way to say it. We’re all Phillies fans here.

  302. First off dont make statements like i havent learned…If you check my posts last year i was one of the few who applauded the trade fro blanton…2nd for anyone who has a clue, theyd know cardenas isnt nearly the prospect level of drabek or brown let alone both….3rd, last time i checked we are comfortably in first place and have a better lineup than last year with Happ filling myers spot and we won the ws last year…So making a statement like Youd rather not win it all this year is clearly an ignorant statement as we still would have a “chance” of winning it without Halladay….If it was a no brainer Ruben would have done it a week ago, but luckily for people who know the value of their elite minor league prospects, we have ruben doing the negotiating not some arm chair GMs willing to write a blank(prospect) check for a year and a half service time for 1 pitcher

  303. ez e is right

    The Blanton trade is no reference here. Neither Outman or
    Cardenas could contribute in any way to the team last year.
    Good or bad the trade took nothing away from the 2008 team.

    This year you want to trade a major league 6-1 pitcher,a catcher who should be here, a outfield who is a pulled hammie
    away from the big team and a pitcher who could contribute
    near the end of the year.
    Yes Doc is a better pitcher than Blanton but he is one man
    who plays every five days.
    For or against the trade don’t mix apples and oranges.
    and remember” Peavy Fever”

  304. To me it value happ is a major league starter right now, drabek is a top 25 pitching prospect, Taylor is in the major with a lot of teams right now, and brown is a five tool stud. if halladay would sign a extension maybe , but its a lot for one year two month player,just my opinion, Donald, taylor and drabek is enough.

  305. I don’t think anyone is willing to , or talking about writing a blank (prospect) check. We all know the general parameters or package of talent a player like Halladay will cost. The argument is whether you are willing to go for it this year and make the deal, or hope we have enough to win it without making the deal. I want to win now.

    Do you guys remember how bad some of those old teams were we had to watch attempt to commit baseball? When the only thing worth tuning in for was Harry and Whitey? Our system can take the hit of losing the players otherwise we wouldn’t even be at the bargaining table. And I do understand the quality of talent we are giving up. None of those guys can can help us now, and they may not even help later.

    My last point as to why I would make the deal: the health of the team. We are healthy right now, and we hopefully will stay healthy for the remainder of the season. But injuries happen, and a season can be decimated. Whose to say something can’t happen to us next year that has happened to the Mets this year? And whose to say Halladay won’t get injured..I realize this. I’ll still go for it.

  306. Mike i think i would rather do donald brown, carrasco, happ, because we will easily win the division with some form of moyer, pedro, lopez, carpenter, bastardo as the 4 and 5. these pitchers will be almost irrelevant during the playoffs as they are for the most part unneccesary. Happ might start once or twice in playoffs. Drabek could be the 5 in 010 and the 2/3 in 011

  307. mike 77, I’m positive everyone on this site wants the Phillies to win it all every year. We all understand this is maybe the best team ever assembled in Phillies history. We all understand the window of opportunity. We all understand that a trade would not necessarily strip the system.

    The problem is that the Blue Jays are asking for 3 or 4 of our top prospects. Players we will need to restock, without missing a beat in the near future. Each of the players the Blue Jays desire have demonstrated that they are going to be productive major league players. They believe this is a fair price for someone who’s going to give the Phillies exactly 1 year and 2 months of service. Is that simple enough for you?

  308. nowheels, I admit I had Peavy Fever but he just had a bad break. An injury could happen to any ace. Predicting injuries is an emerging field (Verducci effect, etc.) but still next to impossible; using hindsight to criticize injury is not quite fair.

    Still, you make good points about the Blanton deal not affecting the 2008 team the way trading Happ, etc. would affect 2009. I also think Taylor and Marson could contribute within months but Drabek won’t be ready until next year and Brown not until the year after. I don’t see much distance between Taylor or Brown, they’re both 5-toolers, so you keep the guy closer to the bigs since the future is now. I would hope the deal isn’t hung up on Brown vs. Taylor, it has to come down to Happ or no Happ but let’s please also leave Marson and Taylor out too.

    Finally, the idea that the “everyday” player is more valuable than the ace who goes every five days is just plain wrong. The ace is always more important, in fact, so is the number 2 starter. Starting pitchers do as much in their 1 game as the slugger can do in 5 and as I said before there’s no way to avoid a pitcher but you can always pitch around the everyday hitter.

    In priority order the top 5 most important roles on any team are:

    Ace
    Co-ace (#2, preferably opposite hand of your ace)
    Cleanup hitter
    Three hole hitter
    #3 starter (third leg of a “Big Three”)

    Blanton or Happ would be that solid #3 depending on who’s hotter or healthier or matches up better.

    A fair deal for Halladay would be Drabek, Brown, and one or two guys more than a year away. JP will agree because he’ll never get better than that and he knows it.

  309. please no lee or martinez, like we need another left-handed bat. does anyone remenber who was heavily favored last year because of their dominant staff? yes t.b. i,m not saying im against a deal because im not but in the end this team will hit its way to a championship. i have no problem giving up drabek brown and a lower prospect knapp, carassco. just try yo keep the guys who will replace players as needed. guys like marson, keeping happ, taylor who will have to be part of a 4 man of rotation next year in the of. donald who i still think will be good, this year being the aberration,. this team has 5 years in it. with a solid piece here and there probably more. not being said is any deal can be fine as long as your scouts produce. thats the ticket. keep the future utley,s, rollins, howards coming. its a tough job but thats the way you dont worry about deals like halliday.

  310. xfactor
    Agreed then. The only point I have to add is that since no one
    knows where an injury might occur,trading five more or less
    mlb ready players is a big gamble when you are in the driver seat.

  311. We play Washington 6x in September so if we maintain most of this advantage through August, it would take major injuries to bring us down,

    Xfactor I think your trade is the best yet.

  312. Catch 22, you asked in another thread: “As for Drabek…Is he a potential ace or are we looking at someone who, at most, will be a solid no.2.”

    That’s the magic question. Others here have seen Drabek more than I have but I follow a simple rule: all pitching prospects project as a #2 at best until they prove at the MLB level they’re an ace. This includes Strasburg, Drabek, or anyone else.

    Becoming an ace means you have a track record against the best and until they’ve done it against the stacked lineups in MLB there’s just no way to know. The road to becoming an ace is littered with premium talent falling by the wayside. If you’re counting on a rookie to be your ace then you’re probably not a contender so there’s really no need to project above #2.

    That’s not to say Drabek can’t become an ace but as far as counting on it, well, I wouldn’t. Heck, with the arm Brett Myers has he should have been an ace years ago but something just never clicked. Who’s to say for certain it will for Drabek?

    Having said that I think you can safely say Drabek has a heckuva shot. I’d be surprised if he isn’t a solid part of a Big Three, which would make him one of the five most important guys on a team. He’s a gem of a prospect but to become an ace it will come down to character — handling adversity, fortune and fame.

    Put it this way: if you could project Drabek for sure as an ace you certainly wouldn’t part with Brown along with him to get Halladay.

  313. Probably already been said, but I think the Phillies will be signing their draft picks this year, following the trade (it will happen).

    If Drabek is in deal, Colvin will be signed. If any athletic OFer is in deal, expect the Colorado kid to be signed. And if a catcher is dealt, expect the highly-rated catcher to be signed. And maybe all of them if a deal goes through that takes 2 or more top prospects out of the system.

    Perhaps they are holding off on announcing deals, so that no one (agents for drafted players or other GMs) get leverage in their negotiations with the Phillies.

    As I’ve said before, my confidence in this Phillies front office has never been higher. A lot of experienced, smart guys are advising Ruben.

    This is going to be great week!

  314. Before everyone jumps on the Halladay bandwagon let’s take a look at who’s not going to be on the team next year.

    Pitching, well Scott Erye has already announced he’s retiring, Park has a one year contract. Is he back? What about Myers, does he resign? Lopez, Durbin, Moyer? I see 3 possibly 4 spots open next year.

    Infield, I don’t see Brunnlet being resigned. Who’s going to replace him? That’s one spot.

    Catcher, Paul Bako, I don’t think so. Another.

    Outfield, Stairs is 40 years old and Mayberry isn’t hitting. Will they be back? 2 more.

    That’s 6 or 7 spots on the roster that my need to be replaced within a year. Does Halladay makes us better? I don’t think so.

  315. Why are we worried about Bruntlett and Bako? Bako has been on eleven teams to date. That’s gonna keep us from getting Halladay? And Park’s plans? These players will be replaced if they have to be. Bruntlett should have been replaced already.

    And if Myers is gone, all the more reason to get a top pitcher. Play for this years WS. If the deal is there, and it makes sense, take it. Get it done.

  316. To Airborne: Most of those are positions that can be filled quite cheaply with guys for near the veteran minimum.

    Halladay makes us much much better in the short-term and his effect on the rotation is magnified in a short series. Halladay twice in a 5 game series is ridiculous. Hamels, Halladay, Blanton in a 7 game series is Advantage Phillies.

  317. What I’m trying to point out is the very prospects you all purpose in the Halladay trade will be needed shortly to replace those retiring and non productive. Halladay is just one pitcher. We will need 2 or 3 next year. Park won’t resign, he wants to start. Drabek will replace Myers if he doesn’t resign, Donald, Brunnlet, Marson, Bako and Taylor will replace Stairs. An who are these players near veteran minimum? If that’s the case then let’s just resign Brunnlet, Bako, Erye, and Steve Register. That’s sure to make us better. The fact is that trading for Halladay will make the Phillies weaker not only down the road but in the short term.

    They want to get some salary relief let’s start with players like Carpenter and go from there.

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