Friday discussion

Daily Discussion

I’m feeling a bit under the weather this morning, so I’ll keep this short.

* Travis d’Arnaud’s hot start continues, and with this, I was again thinking about our depth at catcher. Here are the stats

Jaramillo, AAA (age 25): .255/.316/.367
Marson, AA (age 22): .322/.444/.425
Kennelly, A- (age 21): .333/.409/.472
Naughton, A- (age 21): .268/.335/.368
d’Arnaud, SS (age 19): .342/.391/.474
Valle, RK (age 17): .293/.328/.517

Kennelly should probably be playing every day in Clearwater at this point, just so we can see what we have in him. Both he and Naughton are a touch too old for Lakewood. d’Arnaud is off to a great start at Williamsport, and Valle has adjusted well above expectations in his US debut. Jaramillo even looks like a big league backup because of his defense, and he hit the ball better in June. The Phillies catching depth is better now than I can ever remember it in the past.

* Edgar Garcia got torched last night, allowing 7 ER in 4.2 IP. Garcia has been pushed very aggressively since signing with the Phillies, and he’s held his own at every stop along the way. After a great first start, one of these was almost to be expected, it just was a bad time for it to happen, with Gillick and other execs sitting behind home plate. For all we know, Garcia was aware of that fact and gripped a bit too tight last night. I hope the Phillies leave him in AA for the rest of the season and give him the experience. If he can start back there next year as a 21 year old and make adjustments, his prospect stock will continue to rise. It should also be noted that Jason Donald and Greg Golson, returning to action, both had big nights last night, both going 3/5 with a HR.

* Just a few other random notes. Alex Concepcion, a personal fav of mine, has now made 3 appearances at Clearwater since coming back from injury; 4.0 IP, 2 R (0 ER), 3 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Its good to see him back on the mound again. Damarii Saunderson is off to a rough start in the GCL, only 2 for 21, but he has managed to draw 7 BB, which gives him a .345 OB%. Cody Overbeck is hitting only .256 in his last 10 games, but 5 of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases, and he has 12 RBI over that span. Travis Mattair is batting .306 in his last 10 games, but still only has 1 HR on the season. He has cut down on the strikeouts, K’ing only 4 times in his last 10 games.

55 thoughts on “Friday discussion”

  2. Valle will probably go 1 level at a time, and follow d’Arnaud. So next year, you’d have d’Arnaud at Lakewood and Valle at SS. Kennelly should be the full time starter at Clearwater now, but he should definitely be there next year.

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  4. a few very interesting articles on philly.com today. first one is about howard http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080711_All-Star_Numbers.html

    in it, it talks about strike outs. a lot have been discussed on this blog about howards, and golson’s strike out rate and if that is an indicator of a player’s value. here is a direct quote:

    “Strikeouts are overrated.

    Baseball Prospectus looked at the relationship between teams’ strikeout rates and run production from 1950 to 2002. It found no correlation. It also found that a hitter’s strikeout rate correlates positively to power, slugging percentage, and walks per plate appearance. After another look at strikeouts by Baseball Prospectus in 2005, analyst James Click wrote, “On a very rough scale, a strikeout costs a team about three one-hundredths of a run.”

    That’s statistically insignificant.

    Howard’s run production is not.”

    i have consistently been a golson supporter and have butted heads with many on this blog about his value. i have consistently said that if you don’t look at his strike outs, his other stats and defense make him among the top prospects in the game. the past year and a half he has been extremely productive with some very rare defensive skills. everyone comes back with, well, you can’t just ignore the strikeouts. my point hasn’t been to ignore strike outs, just to put them in perspective. others on this blog have urged “sell high” on golson. but i honestly think that selling golson now is selling low. his production is on the upswing and as he gets older and more experienced.

    i know traditionalist focus on k rates, but i am not a traditionalist and think that you have to look at the whole picture to see the value of a player.

    there was also another intersting post on Carrasco:
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080711_For_Carrasco__progress_is_slow_but_steady.html

    also a mention by Arbuckle about Marson:
    But double-A Reading catcher Lou Marson entered yesterday hitting .323 with four homers and 44 RBIs in 269 at-bats. He has emerged as one of the organization’s premier prospects.

    Arbuckle said Marson could make an appearance with the team as a September call-up.

    “Marson is getting close,” Arbuckle said. “We’d like for him from a development standpoint to just continue what he’s been doing at the plate. If you look at the average, you’ll say, ‘What are you talking about?’ But I think from a development standpoint, if we brought him here right now, I’m not sure he would hit that much more than Ruiz is hitting. I’m not sure it’s that big an upgrade.”

    Jason Jaramillo is hitting .251 with five homers and 27 RBIs in 263 at-bats with triple-A Lehigh Valley. He has played no better than OK so far.

    “He hasn’t played well enough defensively or offensively to say, ‘Yeah, he’s an upgrade over Carlos Ruiz,’ ” Arbuckle said.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080711_Phillies_Notes__Ruiz_s_catching_job_safe_despite_struggles_at_plate.html

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  7. Just curious as to why Kennelly is listed as “of the radar” on the left column of this page. I noticed that a few days ago, and now that there is a thread at least partially about him, the question seemed appropriate.

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  8. The Phils seem determined to bring in a pitcher and with Bedard on the DL, Burnett seems to be next on the list. Toronto wants a SS bad so you can be sure that Donald heads the Phils’ prospects list. I just hope they don’t offer too much for Burnett. He can opt out of $24 million over 2 years but with his current numbers I don’t think you can assume he will and that’s a big price tag. Donald has eleveated himself into a legitimate prospect which has upped his trade value. I’m hoping that Donald, maybe Outman, and maybe another B prospect could get it done but we’ll have to see.

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  9. Random question, but whats the latest on Kyle Drabek? Isn’t he supposed to be back sometime this summer?

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  10. thephever,
    here is an article that was in today’s paper about drabek.

    Drabek is currently on the roster of Philadelphia’s minor league Clearwater (Fla.) Threshers, but has been rehabbing with the Gulf Coast League Phillies.

    He throws bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, totaling 40 pitches each time. He’ll throw 20 pitches and then take a break before throwing 20 more, simulating two innings of work. The workouts are attempts to get him ready for possible game action in August or September, he said.

    http://www.hcnonline.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19844600&BRD=1574&PAG=461&dept_id=532228&rfi=6

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  11. yes, last report I saw had drabek throwing in a game by the end of august i think….. correct me guys if im wrong

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  12. Good spot, BC, thanks for that info.

    PP Fan: it isn’t merely Golson’s strikeout rate that is troubling. Plenty of quality hitters have high strikeout rates; for comparison’s sake, look at Ryan Howard’s 2A season (30.4% K rate) versus Golson’s this year (28.1%). But it’s the walk rate that scares me. Howard had a career 11.5% BB rate in the minors; Golson’s is 5.0%. I hope Golson continues to improve as he has this year, but until he proves me wrong, I’ll fear that his free swinging tendencies will get him eaten alive by MLB pitchers.

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  13. Jeff, he just kind of seemed to get lost in the shuffle. I was organizing things and moved him there for now, because I had other profiles I wanted to get done first. He’ll eventually have a page on the wiki site.

    I think Drabek may pitch a few innings, but its more likely he’ll just participate in Instructs, then come to ST, and then be assigned. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him start in Clearwater next year because of the warmer weather.

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  14. “I think gremlins kick you in the back when you’re asleep,” Seanez said, ” . . . and then you wake up and wonder what the heck happened.”

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  15. The problem with Burnett, outside of him getting torched his last two starts, is his contract. If he comes here and pitches well he’ll opt out for a big money deal and leave the Phillies with nothing. If he implodes he won’t opt out and the Phils will be on the hook for 2 more years at $12 million per.

    If something gets done the opt-out has to be addressed somehow, which is probably the main sticking point.

    My offer is Donald, Jaramillo and Happ. I think that is PLENTY.

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  18. About the catchers, who has more upside/more of a better chance to be a Major League catcher d’Arnaud or Valle?

    Is Kennellya fringe prospect or not really worht anything?

    Where would you rank our catchers if I say to you the new kid Rodriguez ends up with a similar line to Valle but in less ABs? Besides Marson who would you want to hold onto?

    Marson
    Jaramillo
    d’Arnaud
    Valle
    Kennelly
    Rodriguez
    Naughton

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  19. I think it looks like this

    Marson
    —–
    d’Arnaud
    Valle
    ——– (big gap)
    Jaramillo
    Kennelly
    Rodriguez
    ——
    Naughton
    Sanchez

    Thats just an off the hip assessment, I’d need to put more time into it.

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  21. Here’s a prediction. If they could have turned (or are trying to turn) Baez into a pitcher. Why not Sanchez?

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  22. The one caution on both D’Arnaud and Valle is that they are so far away from the majors at this stage. I am nervous that the team will think it is OK to trade Marson now because of the catching pipeline behind and the fact that the Coste/Ruiz platoon with Jaramillo in reserve could work for another couple of years.

    If you are another team looking for young, almost major league ready players I think you ask for Marson right after Carrasco in a deal with the Phillies. I wonder if even the Phillies see Marson as a high ceiling catcher like many of us do. I think he could be a .400 OBP catcher with 15 HR power and better-than-average defense in a few years. That would place him near the top 5 catchers in the game.

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  24. Andyb,
    I posted a comment from Stark in the Reading thread, where he stated that the phillies would not even consider trading marson or carassco for Sabathia, so I don’t believe they will trade either of those guys, atleast not now

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  26. Cromp –

    I hope you are right and the Phillies realize what they have got. Catchers with a .400 OBP and .800+ OPS potential don’t grow on trees. Knowledge of the strike zone is so rare among young players. Most of the minor leaguers that draw lots of walk are power hitters who are being pitched around. Marson gets his walks by knowing the strikezone.

    Frankly if the Phillies trade a catcher D’Arnaud might be the logical choice. He is tearing the cover off the ball so his value is high. Valle needs more of a track record to have significant value. But if we are sold on Marson being the catcher of the near future (2010 at the latest), then D’Arnaud is a very valuable commodity.

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  27. I don’t like any deal that includes Jason Donald for A.J. Burnett. In my view, Burnett is now being so overpaid and represents such a risk in salary, that he should be getting roughly what the Phils got when they traded Abreu – essentially, a hope and prayer type prospect. Donald is going to be a major leaguer and might even become a top flight player – the last thing I want to see is him becoming an all-star SS for Toronto while AJ Burnett stinks up The Bank and puts so much salary on our payroll that we can’t or won’t do anything interesting. I’m not saying I’m 100% against us getting Burnett, but I sure as hell don’t want to give up a lot to get him.

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  28. Toronto wants a lefty hitting outfielder and a shortstop. Donald would be the SS. Who’s the OF? Victorino is too much and a switch-hitter. Jenkins? How about Slayden? If I’m Toronto Donald and Slayden is not enough. If you trade a pitcher, you have to get a pitcher back. Happ… Outman? I don’t even want Burnett.

    There’s a kid in the VSL called Francisco Diaz who looks like an interesting catcher. He’s an 18 year old, switch-hitter batting .300. He’s a long way away but I’m wondering if Andy knows anything about him?

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  29. something about me says that Marson, if up in the bigs now may have his growth stunted slightly but wouldn’t hit into a DP with the bases loaded twice like Ruiz did. I think he’d likely take a walk. I’m all for a Sept call up and then we’ll sit on pins and needles to see how he handles a pitching staff in the playoffs (said with hope)

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  30. Catch 22 f/k/a H Man: Slayden’s an interesting name to toss into the mix. His fielding deficiencies mean he probably fits an AL club better, and I think he can at least be a valuable bench player.

    What complicates a potential Burnett deal is his contract. If the Phils could convince A.J. to waive his opt out, they’d be willing to give up a bit more. If not, he’s purely a rental — and since he likely won’t garner Type A status, the Jays would be inclined to accept even less in exchange.

    Under the first scenario, I’d be more than willing to part with a Golson/Slayden/Taylor package to get 2.5 years of Burnett. Under the second scenario… I might only surrender Taylor, Slayden and a PTBNL. It’s a tough deal to do, that’s for sure.

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  31. Whoops, I meant Bellman for the Slayden suggestion. But the rest of the post (about what I’d be willing to give up depending on how discussions regarding Burnett’s opt out progress) was directed at Catch 22 f/k/a H Man.

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  32. Lakewood just signed a 2-year extension to remain the Phillies’ Low-A affiliate for two more years.

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  33. The way I see it, Burnett is exactly what Myers SHOULD be.
    So why trade for what we potentially already have? If Myers could give us something better than AJ Burnett deal is foolish I think.

    Bedard was my #2 choice behind CC, don’t believe in Harden’s health but Gaudin is a nice luxury, and I don’t think Oswalt will be traded. That team could be competitive next yr, just like Ed Wade likes to do.

    Bedard should be our primary target.

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  41. To be fair, that’s what was reaported elsewhere-“shoulder irritation”. Maybe BS.

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  42. Steve Susdorf followed his GS with a 3 run shot tonight.

    Savery got a double playing DH for Clearwater.

    Roth keeps his nasty pitching going for Williamsport.

    I was under the impression that Carrasco was only supposed to go 2 innings.

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  44. Looks like PP was right. Nothing seems wrong with Carlos in the post game article:

    Carlos Carrasco, making his first start since experiencing shoulder pain two pitches into his warmup July 2 against New Britain, pitched out of bases-loaded trouble in the first. He allowed a one-out double in the second, but escaped that jam as well. The right-hander, the top prospect in the Philadelphia organization, walked a batter, hit another and recorded his one strikeout with his 42nd and last pitch.
    http://www.readingphillies.com/recap071108.htm

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  45. In addition to the nice games mentioned so far, Worley pitched his second good game for Lakewood. He doesn’t turn 21 until the end of September.

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  48. Worley had another nice start for Lakewood tonight as well. 6 Innings, 3 Hits, 2 Runs, 1 BB, 5 K’s

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  49. There was a nice piece about Marson in the Inquirer today….. but it didn’t really say anything that posters on this site haven’t already been talking about all season. It talked about how Jaramillo is a more likely call-up because he’s already on the 40-man and the FO wants to see an entire season out of Lou before crowning him the starting catcher.

    My vote; Trade Jaramillo ASAP for whatever they can get, bring up Lou in September to get the jitters out of they way and to handle Carrasco, then give him a shot to compete with Ruiz in spring training next year. If he succeeds, keep him in Philly as the starting catcher for right-handers and use Ruiz as the starter for lefties. Then they can trade Coste, option him or keep him as a right-handed pinch hitting utility player/3rd catcher.

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  50. I’d be fine trading Jaramillo and/or Slayden and perhaps a lower level prospect for Burnett – or even Golson for Burnett. But I’d rather not see Donald or Carrasco go in that trade. Let’s all not forget exactly how hard Burnett has been hit of late. We could catch lightning in a bottle, but we could also have another Freddy Garcia disaster or Adam Eaton misstep. Burnett is more likely to be a drain than he is to be a savior. I’d rather see JA Happ.

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  52. i am all for a bunett deal as long as marson or donald are not included, also assuming happ is here to stay. if you,ve noticed marson throws out 70% of basestealing attempts. it could be his football background. this kid should be here next week. as far as coste goes hes the perfect backup,so he should go nowhere. i dont know how many times i must say it but donald should be at 3rd NOW. toronto , in my opinion can have carrasco and cardenas for burnett. the problem with moving golson is you absolutely have to sign burrell next year, as it is jenkins is a bust his so to bb ratio is worse than howards, which in howards case doesnt make the difference the naysayers put forth. its an absolute disgrace howard is not the as team. i cant blame the fans but the manager of the nl?

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  53. What’s with all this Doanld hype? I think if we can trade Donald as a center peice in the Burnett trade than do it. We don’t need a 3rd baseman for another couple of yrs. Feliz is fine there. And right around that time Chone Figgins should reach FA. Figgins would be good here.

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  54. I just heard this morning that Lakewood catcher Jesus Sanchez is going to extended spring training to become a pitcher. Now Kennelly will catch more.

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  55. Carlos Monasterios, come on down. You’re the last contestant on the “Let’s see if we got anything remotely valuable from the Bobby Abreu deal” game.

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