Kevin Goldstein checks in with his mock draft today, and he comes to the same conclusion I did.

24. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies tend to favor young, toolsy players with their top picks, but they went against the grain last year when Rice southpaw Joe Savery fell into their lap. There’s not going to be a player like that for them this year, and based on where it looked like he would go as recently as a week ago, Collier is a nice find here. Once seen as a top 15 pick, Collier’s game is a bit on the crude side, but his tools all grade out well, and many think his potential ranks with any high school position player out there.
Selection: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Jim Callis has us grabbing Shooter Hunt

24. PHILADELPHIA. With Matusz and Crow seeking major league contracts and Scheppers getting hurt, Hunt was positioned as the best slot-money college starter just a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched well down the stretch and is sliding, but his stuff is too good to drop out of the first round. The Phillies have been associated with toolsy high school athletes such as fast-rising Connecticut shortstop Anthony Hewitt and California outfielder Zach Collier, but they may wait until their sandwich pick at No. 34 to take that plunge.

Projected Pick: SHOOTER HUNT, rhp, Tulane.

Jonathon Mayo ends up going with Zach Collier as his final guess.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Calif.
The Phillies don’t shy away from the toolsy high schoolers and could very well take someone like Anthony Hewitt in this spot, with a sleeper like Destin Hood getting some consideration as well.
Last projection: Ethan Martin

Keith Law adds to the Collier party

24. Philadelphia — Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) H.S.

Collier won’t get past the Twins at No. 27 if the Phillies go with Hewitt or Jason Knapp here.

Well, its that time. Tomorrow is draft day, and that means its time for my final mock draft. You can see version 2.1 here and version 1.1 here. For the last mock draft I put out (2.1), I tried to base my projections mainly off of draft trends, and not really focusing on the latest rumors, as I think track record is generally more important when considering who will go where. Now that we’re only a few days away from the draft, I’m going to take those track records as well as the latest rumors into consideration and try to give my absolute best guess. I’ll go through the first 34 picks, which would cover the Phillies compensation pick. I think trying to guess after the first round is pretty nearly impossible, as the talent dropoff begins and the signability factor, which few of us really have a handle on, becomes a big issue. So, lets get started….

Continue reading Mock draft version 3.1, the final cut →

KG released his Top 50 today in terms of pure talent, with a mock draft coming tomorrow. Here’s where he ranks a bunch of the guys the Phillies have been linked to…

22. Anthony Hewitt, SS, The Salisbury School (CT)
What He Is: On a pure tools level, he’s the best athlete in this year’s draft, maybe the past several years.
What He’s Not: A baseball player.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An absolute monster.
Backup Plan: You want fries with that? All kidding aside, he’s a bright kid who’ll go to a good school and end up just fine if this whole baseball thing doesn’t work out.
Open Issues: His risk/reward balance is so thrown off that people have a hard time coming up with a good valuation; like many East Coast prep kids, he’s a year older than most high schoolers.

25. Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
What He Is: A toolsy player who rocketed from decent prospect to surefire first rounder with an outstanding spring.
What He’s Not: Polished or experienced.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A player with a very good batting average and decent power.
Backup Plan: Fourth outfielder.
Open Issues: Without a ton of power or a ton of speed, is he a tweener?

28. David Cooper, 1B, California
What He Is: Yet another bat-only college first baseman, but loaded with everyone’s favorite two p’s, power and plate discipline.
What He’s Not: A guy who will ever be a good defender or win a foot race.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order run producer.
Backup Plan: Something less than that, but he’s pretty much first base and DH only.
Open Issues: He is what he is, as his body doesn’t offer a ton of projection.

30. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
What He Is: The son of an NFL lineman and a bulky lefty who’s velocity is hard to match among this year’s crop of southpaws.
What He’s Not: Anything more than a reliever.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: Randy Myers?
Backup Plan: More of a set-up type.
Open Issues: He has a long medical record, including a Tommy John surgery; his delivery has a lot of moving parts.

38. Brett Devall, LHP, Niceville HS (FL)
What He Is: As advanced as any high school arm in the draft, with outstanding control and a deep arsenal.
What He’s Not: A power arm.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A fourth starter.
Backup Plan: Some kind of big leaguer.
Open Issues: Can the fringe-average fastball set up the secondary stuff? Does his ceiling justify his price, or is there such a thing as a safe high school arm?

We’ll do this one with bullet points, just some general thoughts. Tomorrow I’ll post my final mock draft as well as some thoughts on the Phillies 7 early picks, and then on Thursday we’ll follow the draft as it happens and discuss the Phillies picks as well as other picks of note.

* Jim Salisbury, the only Phillies beat writer who really gives service to the draft, had some interesting notes in this article, which you may have seen by now. This is the money quote from Arbuckle;

“Can we take a kid who is worth $300,000 and give him $1.5 million? No,” Arbuckle said. “Can we take a kid who might be worth $350,000 and give him $600,000? If we see value and it’s the kid we want and that’s what it will take to sign him, then yeah, we might do that.”

There is some promise there, but of course “might” is the operative word. My stance on taking the best talent is well known. I don’t expect the Phillies to go crazy and sign every unsignable kid to a huge bonus, I just don’t want to see guys taken and given well below slot bonuses just to keep the draft budget down.

Continue reading More draft thoughts →