Lets look at Golson’s start

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Golson is all the rage these days with his fast start at Reading, and really, its hard not to get excited, even for Golson doubter #1 right here. We’ve all seen the flashes of what he can do, and invariably, he cools off. While he’s probably going to slow down at some point (everyone does), his fast 3 week start is certainly a promising sign. I wanted to look at his numbers right now, compared to his numbers from past seasons, and see if we can see something obvious. So, lets get to work…

I’ve created a little graphic here to line up his statistics for easy comparison

golson

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So a few things jump out here. First of all, he’s never hit above .300 at any stop, and currently, hes chugging along at .329. His walk rate is at a career high, which is the absolute most positive sign you can take from his start. His slugging % is inflated due to the higher batting average, as he’s actually hitting fewer extra base hits this season. But, his strikeout rate has also dipped. He’s still going to strike out, but really, you just are going to expect that with a guy who has a long swing. If he can draw walks, its not a big concern at all. Then again, if the walk rate dips back into the 4% range, its not a good sign. Whats most interesting is that he’s killing lefties. His situational splits are all over the place, one year hes tough on lefties, the next year they own him, but his 1.100 OPS is certainly helping his overall line.

The bottom line? His hot start is a great thing. If the walk rate is for real and he can keep the strikeouts where they are, you might be able to convince me he’s turned the corner and the light has come on. We can only hope.

[Also a note, the image above looks fine with my settings in Firefox. If part of the graphic is cut off, just right click and hit “view image”. ]

14 thoughts on “Lets look at Golson’s start”

  1. Strong analysis as always. What jumps out at me is that he was so terrible against LHP after getting promoted last year–.414 OPS, compared to 1.105 this year.

    Given comments from Golson himself this spring about cutting his strikeouts and drawing more walks, I’m optimistic. But of course it’s early. Still, this looks just fine for a 22 year-old at AA.

    It’s amusing to think that when all is said and done, the Phillies might get some credit for handling Golson’s development really well.

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  2. whats amazing is how far his numbers dropped off when he repeated low A in 06… wow

    Golson is truly ALL over the place… you really can’t look at those numbers and make any conclusions other than this years start is a good thing… but really who knows with this guy, hopefully he does…..

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  3. Sure…a terrific start by him. Every offensive category improved significantly over his past.

    BUT…his Ks are still a concern. He is still very vulnerable with 2 strikes at bat. Should he be able to alter his swing when he has two strikes so as to just make contact, he could be awesome.

    We DO know that he is showing that he is superior in all other aspects of his gamne, so getting him better contact w 2 strikes could make him way above average as a ML player…and even could make him a genuine STAR.

    Since I agree with the author here that the Phils need not re-sign Howard at his likely asking price–calling for a BIG trade before his free agency arrives–I can visualize the team re-signiong Burrell and move hyim to 1st base when howard leaves.

    THEN…and befire that, I can see Golson playing CF alongside Cardenas with one/two of Spencer/Brown/Taylor in RF. I believe that these RFers are likely superior fielders, so Golson w cover that 1/3 of the earth that is not covered by water. Adding Cardenas might be a lesser god in lf…but Golson can cover lots of ground.

    That’s a very interesting future!

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  4. ****Since I agree with the author here that the Phils need not re-sign Howard at his likely asking price–calling for a BIG trade before his free agency arrives–I can visualize the team re-signiong Burrell and move hyim to 1st base when howard leaves.****

    Ironically I made the same exact comment a couple weeks ago on one of my blogs right down to Burrell moving to 1B (where incidently he started on the Phils) If they were to trade Howard for prospects it would have to be this off season as next year is his final year before Free Agency. If they traded him next summer they wouldn’t get anything for him. So they ahve to either lock him up soon (might not be realistic money wise for them) or start thinking about shopping him to a team that likes 50 HRs, 130 RBIs, and 200Ks with below average defense out of their 1B…Yankees maybe if Cashman is gone.

    Back to prospects, if either Donald or Cardenas pans out into a above average 2B, they could move Utley to 1B as well if needed.

    Question on Matt Spencer: How is he defensively? Does he have a plus arm that could handle RF in the Bigs?

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  5. as you know, i am a huge golson fan. as excited as i am about his start, i am not ready to label him “can’t miss” until he does it for much longer. that being said, you look for clues that a player is above his competition and his start clearly shows that. but as we see with uber prospect Cameron Maybin who is struggling back at AA, value will be determined over the long haul. but it is good to have the convo about whether he can keep it up instead of whether he can ever make it happen!

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  6. can someone find Golsons swinging/ looking strike three info from last year and this year….

    if he is striking out looking more i consider that a good thing, maybe he is just being more patient, which equates to more walks, and a rise in backward Ks

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  7. NE phillies phan
    just a note Howard is not eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, so we don’t have to worry about that for a couple of years

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  9. ****just a note Howard is not eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, so we don’t have to worry about that for a couple of years****

    My apologies…I was thinking 2009 for some reason. Now I have to go back and try and figure out who I switched with Howard in my head for 09. 3 more arbitrations potentially after this year…My God what will we be paying him after that…$30 million?

    ****if he is striking out looking more i consider that a good thing, maybe he is just being more patient, which equates to more walks, and a rise in backward Ks****

    That would be interesting to see. Its such a small sample size right now (under 100 ABs) to really make anything of it yet.

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  12. Steve Degler, the Reading play by play guy, says Golson has trouble handling the fast ball on the inside corner of the plate from a right handed pitcher. His wide open stance must be an attempt to compensate for this problem.

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  13. Yeah… a lot of guys comjing to the bigs DO have trouble with that inside FB.

    The guys who STAY in the bigs are the ones who learn to accomodate to that pitch w/o bailing out.

    I suspect that such a vulnerability is being woeked on now along with improved pitch recognition…plus being agressive early in the count. That he has improved somewhat in walks is a sign that he is learning the strike zone a bit better.
    Because these aspects of his game need work, IMO he is unlikely to reach the big club for any significant playing time THIS season…but should be ready next season with PERHAPS a cup of coffee in Sept ’08.

    Watching him this season is MY concentration in ’08…hoping he comes through.

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