Daily Archives: April 17, 2008

Outman v Carrasco

I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…

Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?

SportsNation Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.

Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.

Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO

The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.