* I’m starting to legitimately worry about Carlos Carrasco. It’s only a month, it’s only a handful of starts, but he’s already allowed 6 HR in 31 innings after allowing 6 home runs all of last season. The low K rate is also sending up a bit of a red flag. We’re not in panic mode, or even “worry mode”, just kind of head scratching mode at this point.
* JD Durbin made his debut the other day, and struck out 7 guys in 4.2 innings. The bad news is, he also allowed 7 hits, and of the 14 balls put in play, 6 were line drives.
* Jason Donald is tearing the cover off the ball. In 23 May AB, his 3 slash line is .609/.643/1.000…..not bad.
* Adrian Cardenas is up to .279, and while you want to see more from a top pick, after a frigid April, he’s hitting .316 in the first week of May.
* Mike Zagurksi clearly doesn’t belong at Clearwater. Through 13 innings, he’s averaging 17.5 strikeouts per 9, and he’s allowed only 9 of the 44 batters he’s faced to reach base.
Phuture Phillies 
Donald and Zagurski need promotions. Hell, I’m not sure Zagurski (who’s 11 months older than Hamels) shouldn’t be in Philadelphia…
Cardenas has a freakishly high number of RBIs for a guy who isn’t really slugging that much. I assume he’ll grow into some power. As for Carrasco (and Drabek a level down), there’s both good news and bad news. I don’t think we know enough yet to have a strong reaction either way, but we probably will in a month.
How about Andrew Carpenter? He’s a guy I haven’t thought about that much, but seems to be off to a great start at an age-appropriate level in the FSL.
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I think a lot of people underestimated Carpenter’s stuff. I liked the pick, I remember guys like Squire weren’t a big fan of it at the time. It was deemed a “safe” pick, but he’s got mid 90’s heat, a good curve, a good slider, and a decent changeup. If he doesn’t pan out as a starter, he’ll definitely have value in the bullpen.
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I don’t see many if any LRP’s better then Zagurski in the whole organization. Who am I over looking? And when do you think Zagurski will be in Reading?
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Well, here’s the thing.
1. Normally, relievers aren’t high on the prospect chart because they have limited value in the long run. A large chunk of major league relievers (not all, certainly) were minor league starters before being turned into relievers. The exceptions are college closers who speed through the system. Zagurski was a starter in college, so he’s only entering his 2nd full season as a reliever exclusive pitcher.
2. As I noted in my profile of him a while back, the big thing is control for him. If he doesn’t walk guys, he’s going to be a really valuable reliever. So far, he’s walked only 3 in 13.1 innings to go with the ridiculous 26 strikeouts. K/B is more important for starters, in my opinion, and I’m more focused on BB/9 innings pitched. Right now he’s at 2.06, and that’s a good number. Anything in the 3 per 9 range is getting close to trouble, and that’s where he was last season. This season, so far so good.
3. He’s 24. This is the main reason, coupled with his role, to giving him a lower grade in my prospect grades. He SHOULD be dominating High A hitters, as a four year college pitcher with a good slider. When he gets to AA, which should be soon, we’ll know what he’s going to do going forward.
4. As for other LHP relievers in the system, well, it’s tough to say really. The following are LHP prospects
Happ
Maloney
Outman
Brauer
Blaine
Blaine has the lowest ceiling of the group and is already relieving, with some success. Of the remaining, I think Maloney has the lowest ceiling and should be converted to relief sometime soon. Brauer throws harder than Maloney and has been great at High A. Outman has a huge arm, no need to turn him into a reliever yet. Happ is a tweener, but I think his best value long term is at the back end of the rotation, maybe even at some time this season.
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Surely, we love to see our prospects doing well at all times at all levels of the minors.
But we need to recall that the minors is the place where experimentation and the learning process is supposedly enhanced with new pitches added or refined from the last level.
IMO, Carrasco needs some “larnin’ time” to adjust to the new level.
My money is on him straigtening things out by later in the season w some bumps/detours along the way.
Same with our #1 pick from 2006…Drabek.
Let’s be a little patient…
Agree that Zagurski should not be spewnding much more time at A ball; Reading should be welcoming him in a month or so if he keeps this up.
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Regarding Adrian Cardenas:
Things to note is his high amount of rbi’s for not slugging like he is known to do. Also, keep in mind he is the youngest position player on this team. He is 2nd on the team in rbis, hr’s, 3b’s and 2b’s. He is not striking out too often, although he could use more walks. Once he actually gets it, he will tear through this league. He hasn’t gotten it yet….one can onloy imagine what it will be like when he does…..
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I’m not worried about Cardenas. The talent is clearly there. The walk rate is a concern (6.1%), but his XBH is 27%, that’s not too shabby, and his K rate is only around 16.7%, and that’s fantastic for someone his age, at this level.
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Finally, a very solid start by Carlos today.
IP H R ER BB SO HR
Carrasco (W, 4-1) 8.0 4 1 1 2 8 1
What is going on with the long ball? He’s already surpassed last years total of homers given up. All in all, it’s good to see him get on the right track again.
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Well, Lakewood is one of the toughest hitters parks in the minors, and it greatly suppresses home runs. Clearwater is much more of a neutral park in that regard. Carrasco did give up some fly balls last year, so this isn’t completely out of the blue.
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More plusses about Cardenas:
His defense so far this season at 2nd Base has been great! I think it’s a fit, except for Utley blocking the way. Do you think Cardenas can handle 3rd?
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