Daily Archives: May 1, 2007

Ottawa Lynx April Wrapup Part One

The Lynx April 2007 (Part One-Won-Lost and the Lynx Offence)

The Ottawa Lynx completed the first month of the 2007 season with a 10-9 won lost record, not great, not terrible, but on the good side of .500 with an 8-4 record after a 2-5 start on the road. Getting off to a good start and perhaps leading the division or at minimum staying close to the division lead is of prime importance in the early going. If a team falls significantly behind due to a poor record in the month of April, any hot streak which they enjoy later will have been wasted just getting back to or near the .500 level. In most seasons, except those in which a team finishes close to .600, a team will have one or two cold streaks and one or two hot streaks. The key is limiting the length of the cold streaks and having them more towards the middle of the season. It is also preferable to have a cold streak against teams in another division and hot streaks against your own. But that is a matter of the luck of the schedule and I suppose, luck of the draw. There are statistical categories and analysis ad nasuem to explain everything from the effect of the moon to which movie todays starting pitcher watched three days ago. Stats are useful in their own right but I’m not a slave to them and more often than not prefer to analyse what I’ve seen and not what I’ve read. As we discuss April 2007 and the Ottawa Lynx, it should be interesting to try and determine what these stats might be telling us.

Continue reading Ottawa Lynx April Wrapup Part One

Park factors, sample size, and more..

This is another area I wanted to touch on, sort of as a follow up to my “Prospect v Non-Prospect” post a few days back. As I mentioned in that discussion, when looking at a minor league player’s stats, you have to really look at things through a number of different lenses. A .260 batting average tells you relatively nothing if you don’t know how old the player is, what league he plays in, what position he plays, and what his home park is like. Not all .260 averages are made equal, not all 15 HR seasons are equal, and not all 3.00 ERA’s are equal. Understanding what goes into figuring this out will tell you a lot about the minor leagues in general.

Continue reading Park factors, sample size, and more..