General Discussion – Week of 2-10-2014 – Pitchers and Catchers Edition

Weekly Discussion

Anyone think The Phils will add another piece to their rotation in the next few days? I wonder if they’d still make a push for Ubaldo Jimenez, but I kind of doubt it.

Would you give up the 47th pick in the coming draft for the 30-32 year old seasons of Ubaldo Jimenez with an AAV of $12-13M, as Fox Sports Ohio reported last week was his likely price range? I think I would, but it wouldn’t be an easy decision. Also, whether Jimenez wants to pitch in Philly is another story altogether.

Discuss.

142 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 2-10-2014 – Pitchers and Catchers Edition”

  1. In a word, “No”.
    I don’t think the Phillies will make a move before Thursday. Like everyone else, I hope that something is in the works, but I believe that there really are spending constraints on the GM. And I don’t think a deal for Jimenez is likely to be approved.
    And, I wouldn’t give up the 47th pick for Jimenez. If it were an option, I would rather give up $15-16M AAV for one year of Burnett.
    As the roster stands today, I wouldn’t give up the pick and the slot money for any player who wasn’t going to get the team back in contention for the division or the wild card. No single player is likely to do that without improved production from “the core”, specifically Howard. Since the odds of all pieces falling into place are long, I wouldn’t spend the future on a long shot this season.

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    1. Agree with the idea that Burnett is a good option as well, but word around the web is he’s not coming to Philly. We’ll see.

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        1. Arroyo barely moves the needle for me. He’s old like Burnett, gives up a ton of HR, and is still likely to get a multi-year deal. No thanks.

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  2. Here is a historical list of #47 picks in the major league draft:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=47&draft_type=junreg&

    See any names you recognize? Over the last 30 years, I see 2: Tom Glavine in 1984 and Albert Belle in 1987. Craig Wilson from 1995 bounced around long enough, mostly as a bench player to pick up 3.6 WAR. Everyone else on the list is either hovering around replacement level or never made it to the majors.

    So, while I don’t think the Phillies should throw away draft picks willy-nilly, I think the chances of picking up an impact player at #47 are pretty remote. They shouldn’t let it dissuade them from signing a relatively young pitcher whose value has been depressed because most teams would have to give up a far more valuable draft pick to sign him.

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    1. I think it is less just #47, but that range of picks. If you go to #49 the list since 2000 includes Xavier Nady, Chris Tillman, Johnny Giavotella, Vic Black, Mike Olt, Kyle Crick, Jesse Winker, and Austin Wilson.

      Not to say that losing pick 47 would be devastating, but that is still an asset and a shot at a guy (to be fair anything after the first round is really a crap shoot). My concern would be you are giving up a pick and giving a contract that isn’t the most attractive thing ever, for a team that is still likely to not be competitive the next two seasons.

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      1. Sure, if you don’t think the Phillies can compete for the next few seasons, you shouldn’t sign a #3 starter. That goes without saying. I’m just saying that if you do think the Phillies can compete–as the front office seems to believe, if only halfheartedly–you shouldn’t let the #47 pick get in the way of making a move.

        Here’s my view of it: the new CBA, along with the general shift to placing greater value on young players, prospects and draft picks, has created an inefficiency in the marketplace. Most teams outside of the Top 10 picks in the draft, whose picks are unprotected, are loath to give up those picks unless they are signing an absolute top-tier guy like Choo. Most teams within that Top 10 segment, meanwhile, are small market clubs with tight payroll constraints.

        So the Phillies, by virtue of sucking last year, have an advantage which might allow them to get Ubaldo at a rate that is less than his true value in terms of both years and AAV. Why sign him to such a deal, even if the team doesn’t look so great on paper? One, there’s a very slight chance that, in a weak division, they can compete next year. Two, if they aren’t competitive, but Ubaldo proves to be a decent #3 starter, they can flip him and his below-value contract in a trade either this year or next year. In all likelihood, such a trade would bring back more value than the #47 pick. Look at the Jake Peavy trade this year as a comparison–a pitcher with 1.5 years left on his contract (plus an option) brought the White Sox a top outfield prospect and a couple of other pieces.

        So, in my view, if you think Ubaldo is likely to be worth more to a team on the trade market than he is in this free agent market, due to the draft pick penalties, it could be a wise investment to buy him now and flip him later.

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      2. Oh, and on the #49 vs. #47 comparison: sure, I get it, you can always root around the list and find counterexamples to prove that pick can be valuable. Obviously, there’s a chance of hitting the jackpot with the pick, but those odds are not great, and as I explained above, I think the chances of turning a major league starter into a top prospect via a trade are higher.

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    2. It’s even more valuable now because it adds slot money that can be allocated in any way the team sees fit, allowing it to pick off players like Cord Sandberg.

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      1. No brainer move is to pay a bit extra to get Burnett on a pricey one year deal perhaps with a second option year and a reasonable buy out. No loss of picks and Burnett could make them so much better. A polished power pitcher like that between Lee and Hamels in the rotation is an absolutely perfect change of pace.

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        1. I agree that’s a lot of slot money to give up, but that high in the draft, the Phils haven’t been bargain hunting. They got Sandberg and Keys over slot mainly because of the 8-10th round senior signs and their willingness to eat a little tax money, presumably because they saved raw $ by not being able to sign picks from the 5-6th round. Not sure that was their thinking, but I believe it likely was.

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  3. I would give up the 2nd round pick for Ubaldo if you can get him for 3 years. That gives you another arm to slot in the middle of the rotation and makes you rotation formidable with Lee Hamels and Ubaldo. Not that that makes you a playoff team, but you have a playoff caliber rotation then, and are only a few offensive pieces away from being competitive again. It’s a tough call but I would make the move.

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  4. Hey, on another note: does anyone have a guess, based on past years, of what date minor league Spring Training will begin? I’m going to be down there during the first week in March, leaving March 8, and I’m curious whether the minor league guys will be playing games yet. I can’t remember when they start from previous years.

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  5. I wouldn’t give up the pick for a guy who might not even have a winning record. Seriously, is anyone highly confident that Jimenez or Santana weren’t one year wonders who will fail this year? I’m definitely not. I am fairly confident in AJ Burnett however and I find it very interesting that the Orioles, Phils and Pirates have all said he’s too expensive for them but yet, he still hasn’t signed anywhere else. It could be that the agent played a high level game and lost. Maybe he asked for $20M for the one season and they all backed off. His agent could simply lower the number and approach again. Late signings of Burnett and Madson would be like gold at this point. Odds? Low unfortunately…

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  6. This is why I wanted Garza….no pick…i wish i knew what direction this team was headed so i could say i hate the direction or not

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    1. Garza was the critical missed opportunity in my view. Brewers got a real steal with him. Unless he gets really hurt, it was difficult to imagine a scenario where he would not have been extremely useful and cost-effective for the Phillies. Garza’s money is being paid to Papelbon – ugh!

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  7. ___________
    Top 25 25 & Under
    ___________

    1_) 3B/1B Franco 21
    2_) SS Crawford 19
    3_) LHSP Biddle 22
    4_) 3B Asche 23
    5_) SS Quinn 20
    6_) CF Tocci 18
    7_) RF Cozens 19
    8_) LF Sandberg 19
    9_) C Grullon 17
    10_) RHSP Pettibone 23
    11_) RHSP S. Gonzalez 22
    12_) CF Revere 25
    13_) C Joseph 22
    14_) RHRP Martin 24
    15_) CF Altherr 22
    16_) 3B Green 19
    17_) LHSP Morgan 24
    18_) RHRP Giles 23
    19_) SS Galvis 24
    20_) 2B Hernandez 23
    21_) RF Dugan 23
    22_) RHSP Watson 20
    23_) C Knapp 22
    24_) C Rupp 25
    25_) RHRP Aumont 25

    what y’all think?

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    1. I like the concept – some disagreements on a quick glance – Revere is way too low, Galvis (even though I am not as high on him as some people are) is too low. Joseph too high.

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      1. revere is a 2 tool player imo
        galvis is elite on defense maybe he deserves a few spots higher.
        joseph is still young.

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    2. I think you are severely undervaluing Pettibone (a proven major league #4), Revere (a major league average CF), and Galvis (he may not be a starter, but he has a major league carrying tool that could make him one). I wouldn’t take any of them (including asche) over the Top 3 guys. However I love Tocci as a prospect, but if you told me he would be Ben Revere, I would take that in a heartbeat, and Revere is Revere now, and Tocci could be that in 3 years.

      Now you could knock these guys for their contracts/service time, at which point it becomes a trade ranking. But on pure talent I think you are really undervaluing the safety of those guys.

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      1. Calling Pettibone a “proven major league #4” is a bit strong given he has all of 100 IP at that level so far. He could very well follow the path of JA Happ or Vance Worley yet. (or any number of other guys that didn’t adjust after the league got a book on them or got hurt, etc).

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    3. Should make it two categories….20-years old and under for the one listing, and 21-years old and over for the other.

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    4. I think your list is very kind to Quinn, Tocci, Cozens, Sandberg and Grullon, and harsh on Martin, Galvis, Revere, Dugan and Altherr. In the case of Revere, you have a player who has already proven capable of holding down a major league starting job, and Galvis could probably be a starting SS for a lot of teams. Martin should be, at the least, a capable major league reliever, and could be more. If I had to guess, I would not say you subscribe to the old adage that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I suspect you are restless sort, that there is a yawning void somewhere deep in your psyche. You always wonder if you should be looking the better job, wonder whether somewhere out there there, there might be a party that is a better party than the one you’re at right now. I’m pretty sure you will never be satisfied with the imperfect consolations that life affords you. I’m not sure I would want you dating my sister. Of course, I may just be projecting. I’m certainly procrastinating.

      But on the whole, this is a very defensible ranking of young Phillies players.

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  8. The site changes now make it more easier to navigate. PP3.0.
    But where is the graphic evolution from Bozo chimp to Phillies baseball player?

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    1. The problem with the header is as the site has moved forward technologically the header itself has become stretched and altered to fit at the top. When I put it on the site this morning it looked horrible, and so until it can be reworked to look acceptable at the top I went with the clean look.

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      1. Im currently working or will work on a new header while dodging actual work as a graphic designer at the office. Anyone have any ideas of what they want? I was thinking of just doing a montage of past top prospects as a timeline to current. Burrell, Hamels, Utley, Brown, Franco… with the Phuture Phillies name and some tag line we or I can come up with.

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        1. How far back are you willing to go…Ashburn was in the late 40s, along with Robin Roberts, both Hofs, then there was Richie (Dick) Allen in early 60’s, then Bowa, Boone, Schimdt and Luzinski group in the 70’s.
          It could be a long header depending on how far back yuo want to go.

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        1. Freaking LOVE the new header and web design.

          Well done Gentlemen! Its amazing how far this place has come in the past 7-8 years. Anyone remember what it used to look like back in the day?

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          2. Love the redesign. If I could ask for one thing it would be not to make the front page blocky which has become increasingly popular with websites. It looks a lot like Windows 8 mobile and that is not a very popular OS.

            Why people are trying to make things look like an unpopular OS makes me scratch my head.

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  9. As for the header, how about a collage of former Phillies’ Hall of Fame winners…which does go back in time…to now.

    On giving up a 2nd round draft choice for a possible # 3 or 4 starter, we should keep in mind that the present team is composed of several major players on the downhill grade and any “quick, but uncertain” seems not worth the present cost .

    Though the team as presently constituted might give hope early in the season, the most likely outcome will be a significant distance from post season. These guys might greatly benefit from a different approach by Sandberg; at least I believe so. But the lack of any kind of pitching staff–after the first 2–will hold them back.

    So…IMO, I’d NOT want to give up any early draft choices because this team MUST get into a re-building mode instead of continued mediocrity in its future. Yes, there is no guarantee that the 2nd round choice will in fact yield an prize prospect, but we certainly know that it is much better to pick early than late.

    The status of the farm system is deplorable. It should be be primary in management’s minds.

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  10. Reports say the Phillies are still pursuing Burnett, that might be the best of both worlds, preserving respectability this year while not surrendering any draft pick. Anyone got a problem with such a signing?

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    1. Signing Burnett would be a good move it seems. He was good in ’13 and could be a large boost to this confused, uncertain rotation. At #3 probably. Also would boost their chances to have a miraculous resurrection for at least ’14.

      I thought there was little chance of his coming to the Phils. It would be a reason to hope for ’14…at little cost to the future.

      Go!

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      1. AJ lives nearby, a few hours away, outside Baltimore, why not Philly…it is convenient for him and his family.

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      2. Todd Zoelicki reported that the talks are still on, due to the fact that the Orioles are out. Go figure, Burnett doesn’t want to end his career pitching in the AL East.

        Talks with Burnett Ain’t Dead Yet

        As for the Arroyo guys, not sure he was a great idea, but you know that ship has sailed, right? He signed with the DBacks last week.

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      3. Signing Burnett would be a plus with only financial consequences. Of course it means we wasted $5 million on Hernandez as insurance, so I am not quite sure they will pull the trigger on Burnett.

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        1. They would probably keep Hernandez to be the 5, but it gives them extra trade pieces, including, by the way, Kendrick. Trust me, somebody is going to need a legitimate inning-eating #4 at some point in the near future – it happens every year without fail.

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          1. If the Phillies were able to trade Kendrick before the season starts, the additional outlay for Burnett would net out to around $8-9 million, and he might be able to bring back something useful. Maybe you could even get some team to cough up the equivalent of Kendrick in 2007, a fringe starting pitching prospect to replenish the pretty pathetic pitching depth in the system right now.

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  11. I doubt the Phils add an arm before camp at this point. Arroyo would of been a really good signing at this point for only 2 guarenteed years and no comp. The Phils didn’t pursue him. I really don’t think the Phils wanna give up any picks this year. I would still put a slim chance on Burnett but I wouldn’t depend on that. I still wonder why they committed over 4 mill to Hernandez.

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    1. I like Arroyo also, but with one caveat…..he does give up the HR ball, and pitching at CBP could be a disaster for him.

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      1. As a Phillies fan, was anyone ever worried when the Phils were facing Arroyo? He’s an okay pitcher who throws lots of innings, sort of like a Blanton type, and tosses the occasional very good game. He would help any rotation but he’s not a difference maker of any kind. On the other hand, AJ just had 2 terrific seasons and can be dominating good on any given day. Keep your fingers crossed that he wants to play in the NL near his home. I know RAJ will outbid the Pirates and that might be enough to get AJ to Philly where he would slide into our rotation very smoothly.

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      2. He did but what I like about him is he pitched in another hitters park in Cincy w/ very good results. He has been 1 of the most consistant pitchers in baseball over the last 10 years and takes the ball every 5th day. Remember we’re only asking him to be our #3. I would def. take him over KK and Hernandez.

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        1. But is the difference between him and Kendrick, the $1.5 million more owed in 2014 plus $13.5 million owed between 2015 and his buyout. That is a lot to pay for what is probably a win at most.

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          1. I would think the odd man out be Hernandez. That’s who I’d compare Arroyo more to then KK. Don’t you think they’d of been better off saving the 4 plus mill for Hernandez and signing Arroyo? I understand you had to commit more than 1 year but Hernandez at best is a #5 starter. Arroyo is a solid #3.

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            1. I think Arroyo is a #4 at best. Last year fangraphs had him at 0.8 fWAR (Hernadez came in at 0.2, and KK at 1.7). That is a lot of money for not a lot of improvement.

              To me Arroyo makes sense if you are a contending team that needs a #5 starter who can go get you 200 innings, because his value is in his durability. I didn’t think he made any sense for Arizona (which is a rotation of #3 pitchers). For the Phillies that seems like a luxury purchase that just hampers their ability to make moves a year from now.

              I will acknowledge the difference in fWAR and bWAR on this subject. Baseball Reference pitching WAR is derived from runs allowed and is a good measurement of actual value in that year. Fangraphs fWAR is based on fielding independent statistics and I find is a better measurement of true pitcher talent level, and has more predictability. By bWAR the three pitchers were 2.5, -0.6, and 1.0 respectively.

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  12. I say our chances to land Burnett are really good at this point. It definitely will take $16-$18 and probably a limited or complete no trade clause since he is so picky about being near home.

    I’m all for it.

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        1. Always trust your instinct, forget what may or may not be correct. My instinct is ‘here’. Thanks for a little word fun.

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    2. Don’t like the deal. We are looking at a .500 team if everything breaks our way but with Cole out for Opening Day it is increasingly looking like we will be a 90+ loss team.

      For the money it will not make a big deal with the club.

      I am not sure Amaro really understands what he is doing in terms of constructing the roster at this point in time.

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      1. I don’t really think you have a clue about the game of baseball given your track record of posts but I’m sure you are a really nice guy.

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        1. Let me ask you where you expect the Phillies to finish this year? Do you expect the team to revert back to Championship form?

          I see a team that is split between older players that are on the downside of their career and a few young players that are on the rise. That is not a recipe for success.

          http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10127149/mlb-offseason-winners-losers

          • Philadelphia Phillies — What we have here is a team that can’t say the word “rebuild.” So the Phillies have signed three free-agent position players (Marlon Byrd, Carlos Ruiz and Wil Nieves) who all will begin next season 34 or older. They signed a 33-year-old starter (Roberto “Don’t Call Me Fausto” Hernandez) whose 5.03 ERA the past six seasons is the second-highest (behind Luke Hochevar) in baseball among pitchers with 800-plus innings. And amid all of that, they floated the names of Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee and Domonic Brown as potential trade bait, to the confusion of many.

          “I just don’t understand exactly what they’re doing,” one AL exec said. “If you’re seriously trying to win, you don’t do it this way. And if you’re trying to get younger, you don’t do it this way. At some point, they’ve got to pick a direction and go with it.”

          ——

          I am on board with the sentiments in this article. What they are doing is so haphazard and spotty that I wonder what they are doing? They are going in opposite directions with no plan but I guess I have no idea about baseball and neither do AL execs.

          But I am sure you are a nice guy as well.

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          1. They have a direction and plan. It looks like these were Amaro’s goals:
            – Don’t go over luxury tax
            – Don’t give up draft pick
            – No long term contracts
            – Don’t trade anything of value from the farm
            – Don’t sell away what is on the team
            – Be as competitive as possible

            They know they can’t rebuild because of the fan base, they know their trade assets won’t allow for a quick rebuild, they know they don’t have the assets to push in, and they know they are not championship contenders. So Amaro did no harm, but the team in a position where it can be competitive if things go well, and can be dismantled if things go well.

            Burnett fits all of these requirements exactly, so did Byrd, so did Hernandez, so did not signing a big name FA.

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            2. The one area where I will disagree is that they can rebuild if sold to the fanbase in a proper manner. Look at the Eagles and Chip Kelly. They hired the right guy, made some good moves, set expectations low, and kept quiet.

              Sales for the Phillies next season are down so it is not like the fan base is voting their approval of the moves being made. They expect a rebuild.

              The key is marketing running promotions and getting out to sell fans on the future stars of the franchise. Your internal marketing department needs to work hard. When the franchise was at the top no work was required to sell out. During a rebuild, marketing has to work overtime coming up with promotions and selling them to families.

              Instead of selling the fans on Howard, Utley, and Rollins they need to focus on Brown and Asche. At some point you need to get the fans interested in the next group of players.

              Personally, I would have skipped signing Utley, Byrd, and Burnett using the money to improve the bullpen and been active in the trade market.

              Then again this deal may have been made because Cole’s arm is worse than they are saying. Out for Opening Day has me worried.

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            3. A baseball rebuilds is 3-4 years minimum, football you can have a good draft fill in the holes and be ready to go on being respectable. Baseball the only way to acquire now ready talent is trades and development. The roster has nothing to trade for that talent and the farm system doesn’t have the talent developed right now.

              As for another part of your comment, the bullpen is really solid right now, and it has nice upside. I think the FO has done a really good job there.

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            4. I have to agree. It may not work out, but it’s a nearly perfect strategy designed to maximize what is there now yet not trade away the future. It is the type of thing big market teams can and should do to remain competive.

              If Hamels can make it back relatively soon, this season just might be interesting after all and I agree that the bullpen is interesting and has a ton of upside. The pitching coach will play a huge role in determining how far the team goes; hopefully Troy McClure was the right choice (Simpsons fans know the reference).

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          2. I guess I watch with my own eyes what goes on. I’m not a big fan of “well one AL exec said this and this Exec said that” type quotes.

            And let’s not even get started on pundit quotes from fangraphs personnel and those stupid arse pecota rankings. real life base isn’t an electronic board game or fantasy baseball. It is a game played by real humans. Managed by real humans. They have real life human problems like us. Time and time again the paper tiger comes up short. The offseason GM darling comes up short. This time last year everybody wanted on the Blue Jays bandwagon blah blah blah.

            It’s really quite simple. AJ is a top flight starting pitching if you can get him on a 1 year deal you do it. Don’t worry about rebuilding, don’t worry about selling tickets. Worry about making your starting rotation better and it makes the entire team better.

            Position players can relax a bit more knowing their guy is going to keep them in the game.

            And if you want to take it a little deeper the WS winner is rarely full of a bunch of rookies. This move keeps everything in tact. The second pick the pool money and by the way they have the 7th pick in this years draft. RAJ didn’t trade Franco or Biddle. He didn’t trade Brown or Lee. I really can’t see why anyone would see this sign as a negative.

            For crying out loud I remember when there a bunch that cried they didn’t spend money.

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  14. The site’s looking a lot better these last couple days. Just FYI, the bottom line of text on the new banner is cut off unless I zoom out.

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      1. I designed it on my massive Imac at work. Now that im at home on my laptop it doesnt look right unless im zoomed out. So what im thinking is the image probably needs to be made smaller and then whose ever resolution then stretches it out. We could fool with that. Or I could retool it and put the text on the left. I just like the way Biddle over the text thing looks. You cant see it on this resolution

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        1. Keep it going. The site looks really good. and the banner is great. I like this format alot better than the first new one.

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    1. I love this move and I love the extra competition for the 4th and 5th spots – just perfect.

      Word on Hamels, from Hamels himself, is that he’s fine and just behind in his throwing program. I emphasize that it comes from Hamels himself, because he’s about the most forthcoming and honest player I can recall. If he says he feels fine and is just building up stamina, I’d take that at pretty close to face value.

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      2. I also like the signing. Though I think Sandberg can sandwich Burnett in the 2 slot between the lefties if he wants.

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  20. I like the Burnett signing but I just hope the Hamels injury isn’t more serious than we think it is. This organization hasn’t been good or honest w/ diagnosing injuries. If Hamels is back at some point in April than this is a really good signing. It gives the Phils 3 guys at the top who could be #1’s on a lot of staffs. If Cole is out longer or it’s a lingering injury, than Burnett kinda cancels him out.

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    1. What if Burnett has a NTC?
      …Ruben has been known in the past to put that little icing on the contract cake.

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  23. I can’t see anything wrong with this signing, a win, win, takes pressure off some of the young kids, gives them this year to develop, don’t have to rush anyone, and this guy is a nice addition to the staff, based off last year. finally Ruben imo makes a nice move.

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    1. It is nearly impossible to hate on this contract, since we weren’t going to be spending that money in any other way and it clearly improves our team. It seemed clear that this money wasn’t going to be spent on anything else, as any other possible upgrade to our team would involve giving up a draft pick and being locked into a long term deal.

      With that said, Keith Law has found a way to hate on this contract. Nearly every contract has reasons to hate on it, so I understand he has some way to hate on every other Phillies signing but this article (http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1844) has to prove how much he hates on the Phillies not matter what we do.

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  24. I actually love this rotation right now….

    If everyone stays relatively healthy (From the reports I’m not that concerned about Hamels) we have a great top 3. It seems like the worst case scenario is a reliable 4-5 in Kendrick and Hernandez but this also gives us MAG as a good bullpen arm with a longshot upside of giving us a very good #4 pitcher come midseason and slotting Kendrick to a good #5 or allowing us to trade him if Pettibone can repeat his success from last season pre-soreness.

    The only thing that could damper my optimism would be finding out that the owners opened up their checkbook because this Hamels injury is more serious than the reports.

    If Pettibone/MAG does perform well in ST, I think it will be interesting to see how the FO handles the 4-5 in the rotation since there would open up the potential of trading Kendrick. Anyone have thoughts on the chances of trading Kendrick?

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    1. I can’t see trading Kendrick now. They just spent $16m, presumably trying to compete this year. Why then turn around and chip away at your newly acquired pitching depth by trading Kendrick for what little he’s worth? He can always be traded later if they’re out of it. If they get incredibly lucky and make the playoffs this year, I think it will be in part because of quality starting pitching from 6 or 7 guys. A much improved bullpen would have to be another factor. I look at it now and think that that’s a possibility if things break right.

      Amaro has had a good offseason in my opinion. He’s still a long way from pulling the team out of the hole he dug for them, but he’s done as much as he could to field a decent team this year without mortgaging the future.

      I’m worried about Hamels.

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      1. Hate to tell you this, but that’s almost exactly what he’s worth. A WAR is worth around $5-6 million and Kendrick pitches at like a 1.2-1.8 WAR – the contract is absolutely market rate.

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        1. hate to tell you this but 1 win players are getting minor league deals this Winter. Hell Chad Gaudin had better numbers. Before you throw out that line, it really only applies to players at least 2.5 win above replacement.

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        2. Chad Gaudin just released by the Phillies on a minor league contract – 1.3 WAR in 2013

          Kyle Kendrick just give almost 8 million dollars – 1.0 WAR in 2013

          but hey its the market rate. Sorry to be a dick, but youre completely wrong.

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          1. Sorry Bob but your comparing Apples to Oranges. WAR really only comes into play with worth on the FA market. Arbitration depends about production and the previous years salary so although I think Kendrick got about $1 mil more than he should have it is near market deal for him. You also cant use Gaudin in any argument because he was released due to failing a Physical.

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          2. Well, yeah, you are both being kind of dickish and you are wrong. Kendrick’s bWAR over the last three years has been 1.0, 1.5, and 1.8 – 4.3 WAR – an average of approximately 1.4 WAR – which is almost exactly the value of what they are paying him. I’m not saying I wouldn’t like a pitcher better than Kendrick – sure I would, but if he produces 1.4 worth of value this year, he will be worth his contract, your jerkish comments aside.

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            1. If you read what I wrote, 1.4 WAR to a pitcher is not the same book value as it to was the Robinson Cano contract. Compare the 1.4 WAR of other pitchers and see their contracts and you will get the market value of Kyle Kendrick, not Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano.

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            2. Bob – teams pay borderline guys with similar track records a lot of money in free agency over several years for performance similar to Kendrick’s – Vargas and Feldman are two examples. Scott Feldman sucks and he got $10 million a year for three years.

              Kendrick’s plusses, while limited, are his durability and relatively predictable performance. It’s not great performance, but it’s worth about what they are paying him in terms of value – that’s not an endorsement of Kendrick, just an observation. But yes, it’s not a bargain and it’s not a good idea as a whole to have a farm system that does not produce enough .competent prospects so that, as a general rule your number 4 and 5 pitchers, are young guys pre-arbitration – just like the Cardinals do. In the future, I agree that the Phillies need to stack their system in a way so that you don’t have to pay the Kendricks of the world any more than a few million a year – no argument there.

              As for getting a guy to pitch like Kendrick on a cheaper contract, you might be able to do that, but those guys typically have some issue that prevents them from getting paid closer to market value and which makes them more of a risk. Chad Gaudin – your example of a great replacement, couldn’t even pass his physical and aside from his health issues he’s had personal issues that make him risky. Chen is old and Bedard is older and very inconsistent. So there are reasons those guys aren’t fetching $7-12 million.

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        3. Bruce Chen signed for 4 million and was worth about a half a win more than Kyle Kendrick. Going rate for Chen under your new poorly read sabermetric theory would be 7 million a win according to Cano contract… a 10 million dollar contract to Bruce Chen?

          A win above replacement is not created equal because of positional scarcity. Before you get cocky, do some research and realize who youre talking to.

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          1. Your examples are bad. Bedard has accumulated a total WAR of 1.6 from 2010-2013. He’s going to be 35 this year. Bruce Chen is going to be 37. Before last year, Chad Gaudin has been below replacement since 2010. That would be like comparing Kendrick to Yovani Gallardo and Matt Cain looking only at last year and advocating a huge contract.

            Old players who are usually below replacement level and are 1 WAR players every few years do get signed to minor league deals. Players still in their 20s who are reliably 1-2 WAR players get about what Kendrick got. He’s nothing special but he’s worth his deal.

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            3. If paying a 1 win player 8 million dollars to be your #5 pitcher is “worth it.” You have no idea how to construct a roster. #5’s are your Jonathan Pettibones. Young players on small initial contracts. Your Phelps, Miley’s ect.

              All these signings have proven is there was absolutely no strategy this offseason for the rotation. If Kyle had been non tendered his market wouldve been around 3 million dollars. If you can some how disprove that some other team would see fit to pay him 8 million dollars annualy please name the team. Actually name the pitchers being payed 8 million dollars this season and see how Kyle Kendrick matches up.

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            4. Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas, Bud Norris, and Phil Hughes all recently were cycled through arbitration with very similar numbers. Can you name a pitcher who was non-tendered in a similar circumstance? At least based on the guys who were similar pitchers from 2011-2013, there was no one who was non-tendered. So you’re dead wrong there.

              You’re conveniently forgetting all the #5 starters out there that suck. The Phillies gave 33 starts to Lannan, Cloyd, and Martin last year. They combined to be 1.5 wins below replacement level.

              There’s value to a guy who 1) is only on a one year deal 2) will soak up 150-200 innings with below average to average performance.

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  25. Ok, just to close the circle, I will be lone voice in favor of Ubaldo. I still think if the Phillies could have gotten him on a 3/39 type deal, that would have been worth doing. He had comparable numbers to Burnett last year, except a slightly higher BB% (3.9 to 3.2), pitched in a tougher league than Burnett, is 7 years younger, has thrown more than 1000 fewer innings, is thus less likely to be an injury concern, and will likely hold more trade value going forward. My argument was that the Phillies could essentially trade the 2nd round pick for a #3 starter on a well-below-market contract, which could either help them in the coming seasons (since there is little starter inventory in the minors) or be flipped for prospects superior to a single 2nd round pick down the line. Burnett, by contrast, seems likely to get a no-trade clause, so the Phillies will have limited leverage at the deadline (and straight 2-month rentals seem to generally bring little value in return these days, except in the case of Carlos Beltran.

    But I understand, everyone else would rather have that second round pick, which is a defensible position. I’m sure that I’ll feel silly in 4 months when Ubaldo has a 5.24 ERA for the Blue Jays or something. Welcome AJ Burnett!

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    1. We signed a superior pitcher on a 1 year deal. The 2014 free agent class is deep with Upper-Middle of the rotation arms, arms I’d be more comfortable comiting money to than a guy like Ubaldo.

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      1. Yes but: will we have a protected pick in 2014? Maybe so, but that’s counting on a lot of things to go wrong. The whole point of my argument was that the pick protection provided based on the team’s poor record in 2013 was a competitive advantage which would allow the Phillies to sign a below-market deal with Ubaldo without paying the back-end price that is scaring off most clubs. That was my point. The CBA gives you this benefit, why not take advantage of it?

        I realize that acceptable responses to this question are: 1)I don’t think Ubaldo will be a good pitcher over the next three years and 2)I don’t think it’s worth giving up the draft pick. I just happen to think Ubaldo is likely to be worth more than 3/39, and that the relatively short and affordable contract would make him an attractive trade chip, if it came to that.

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          1. So, reports are now circulating that they are hammering out details that include a limited no trade and a player (ie, not mutual) option for 2015. If it ends up looking more like 2/32 than 1/16, is everyone still excited?

            To me, I’d rather go 3 years with a lower AAV on a 30-year old pitcher than 2 years with a higher AAV on a 37-year old pitcher.

            Reports could be wrong, of course, but it would fit a recent pattern of often going one year too long

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            1. Personally, I would rather one year.

              If he spent the offseason retired I question what sort of athletic shape he is in to start Spring Training.

              Was he keeping in pitching shape hoping for a phone call or did Amaro toss enough money out there for him to get motivated to pitch again?

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          2. Here is the referenced report, from Jerry Crasnick:

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  26. I don’t expect Burnett too give the Phillies a Roy Halladay 2011 stat season, but I think he can be shown to be a little better then the 2012 Halladay season.
    Hamels’ situation confuses me…in early December he felt ‘should discomfort’, but now it is ‘bicep tendonitis’ according to him and the team doctor with a need for rest. But no MRI taken.
    Would it hurt to have a MRI?

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    1. He had something similar last year, I think people are kind of overreacting. He’s healthy now or he wouldn’t be throwing, he’s just not going to be ready to start a MLB game in time for Opening Day.

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    1. Among the stupidest, most rushed to judgment columns ever written in the history of Philadelphia sports, where rushing to judgment is a local pastime. Did this guy really just assert, on the first day of workouts, that MAG is a bust? That’s so dumb and ill-founded AT THIS POINT IN TIME, that it’s difficult to comprehend.

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      1. Did you actually read the article? There’s nothing inflammatory in there and at no point does Murphy call him a bust.

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      2. catch….someone said the editors decide what to put as the ‘headline’ of the story. The writer in this case does not say that at all. It is more of cautious optimism.

        Incidentally, heard Rickty Ricardo this afternoon….he has talked to MAG quite extensively, in Spanish of course, and says his velo will be in the range of 89-93 with plenty of deception in the delivery. Ricky Ricardo stood behind the cage and said his movement on the ball was fantastic. MAG aslo told him he is healthy and will not ‘air it out’ for awhile. He is on his own pitching schedule and will be ready by EOM March. Also, he and his wife have been to Philadelphia and really enjoy the city.

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  30. appears Savery is odd man out on the roster based on phillies website transactions. I’m a bit disappointed.

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  32. MattWinks…other then Luis Encarnacion (8/9/13 signing), would you know who are the other Phillies international signings since then?

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    2. The two signings that were fairly large were ($250,000) Bryan Martelo, a Columbian outfield prospect, and ($100,000) Edwin Rodriguez, a Dominican infielder

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      2. I see BA’s write up about them:
        Martelo, 16, is 6-foot-3, 190 pounds and stands out for his size and power potential. He has a 55 arm on the 20-80 scale and projects as a right fielder and Rodriguez, 16, a 6-foot-1, 175-pound corner outfielder with a nice swing, a good approach, gap-to-gap pop and below-average speed.

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  33. Ubaldo going to the O’s for 4/48. Despite my earlier advocacy, that’s more years and $ than I would have wanted the Phillies to risk on him. The Burnett signing is looking better and better.

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  34. What is it with the Phillies and their fear of getting “too much” medical news? Check out this article today in which the Phillies are not having Pettibone get an MRI. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Jonathan-Pettibone-shut-down-for-cortisone-injection.html

    My question for any medical professionals is this: is there any harm to getting an unnecessary MRI? If not, why on God’s green earth don’t the Phillies have pitchers get one if there is ANY doubt that something shown on the MRI could be helpful. How many times have we seen the Phillies not require a guy be looked at or cared for or have a scan done, only for the player to continue experiencing discomfort and have the problem show up later when, finally, the MRI, or scan or whatever is done? This seems to happen with the Phillies two or three times every year with really important players.

    This appears to me to be serious WTF territory. It certainly does not speak highly of the Phillies “crack” medical staff.

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