Around the System–OF

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A second look at the OF around the system.  The good: Castro, Altherr, Dugan, Perkins, Susdorf.  The bad: Collier, Mitchell, Hudson. The ugly: Greene. 

Lehigh Valley

Jermaine Mitchell, 28, Signed as a free agent in 2013; .256/.368/.447 in 129 AB’s; 3HR 13 RBI; 9/12 SB; .214 vs. LHP, .267 vs. RHP, .143 with RISP, 15%bb/25%k rates; Hit .238 in May.  37 games in the OF with 1 error (.985); 1 OF assist. Mitchell is always hustling and has a great attitude but is your prototypical AAAA player. His work against lefties holds him back, however an outstanding walk rate has helped a more than adquate OBP.

Darin Ruf, 26, Phils 20th round pick in 2009; .254/.326/.409 in 193 AB’s; 5HR 25RBI; 1/2 SB; .244 vs. LHP, .257 vs. RHP, .158 with RISP; 9%bb/26%k rates; .242 in May. 36 games in the OF with 1 error (.983); 1 OF assist; Has also played 12 games at 1B without an error. Mediocre at best through the first 200 plate appearances for Ruf. He is not producing runs at anywhere near the rate that will get him back up to the majors and has looked somewhat lost of late at the plate. His defense in left is the leats of the issues right now.

Steve Susdorf, 27, Phils 19th round pick in 2008; .323/.405/,438 in 96 AB’s; 0HR 16RBI; 4/4SB; .250 vs. LHP; .342 vs. RHP; .310 with RISP; 12%bb/15% k rates; Hit .323 in May. 24 games in the OF with 1 error (.971); 2 OF assists. The downside is that for an OF, Susdorf hits for little power and is not great defensively.  The upside is that he can flat out hit.  Susdorf is consistently giving you a very good at bat and producing. He crushes RHP, hits with RISP and very rarely strikes out.  In my mind, he can legitimately be a #5 OF in the majors in a role similar to that played by Greg Gross back in the day. SHowing my age I am….

Leandro Castro, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2007; .281/.323/.436 in 185 AB’s; 6HR 28RBI; 13/17 SB; .373 vs. LHP, .238 vs. RHP, .333 with RISPl .276 in May; 6%bb/16% k rates. 49 games in the OF with 4 errors (.966); 2 OF assists; Castro is quietly placing himself into a position where he might be the first OF called up if a significant injury occurred in Phils outfield.  Castro historical problem has been his free swinging.  That will never change but Castro is much improved with a downward trend on his strikeout rate and his walk numbers, while still low trending upward.  Castro is producing runs, stealing bases, and making contact.

Reading

Tyson Gillies, 24, Acquired from Seattle in 2009; .216/.297/.366 in 153 AB’s between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 5HR 16RBI; 6/9 SB; Hitting .261 with 4 HR and 13 RBI in 91 AB’s with Reading. 7%bb/21% k rates in Reading. 43 games in the OF with 1 error (.989); 4 OF assists; Gillies has been playing much better and showing some power thanks to his new swing.  Whether he can maintain this progress and his health are always the question. 

Zach Collier, 22, Phils 1st round pick in 2008;.208/.272/.339 in 183 AB’s; 4HR 17RBI; 6/8 SB;.226 vs. LHP, .204 vs. RHP, .220 with RISP, .232 in May, 7%bb/26% k rates. 48 games in the OF without an error; 3 OF assists; Collier’s May was better than April, but that is not saying much. He needs alot of work with the stick, although very good in the field.

Anthony Hewitt, 24, Phils 1st round pick in 2008; .261/.306/.388 in 134 AB’s; 2HR 11RBI; 8/13 SB; .348 vs. LHP, .243 vs. RHP; .194 with RISP; Hit .279 in May. 6%bb/31% k rates. 34 games in the OF with 1 error (.984); 5 OF assists;  I am not quite sure what to make of Hewitt.  He occasionally shows a glimpse of his potential but quickly falls back into bad habits.

Derrick Mitchell, 26, Phils 23rd round pick in 2005; .221/.296/.404 in 136 AB’s; 5HR 13RBI; 4/6 SB ; .160 vs. LHP, .234 vs. RHP; .200 with RISP; 9%bb/19%k rates; .208 in May.  42 games in the OF without an error; 7 OF assists. Mitchell has been playing for sporadically and when he has received playing time, his production has been extremely limited. Defensively, he has been excellent.

Clearwater

Aaron Altherr, 22, Phils 9th round pick in 2009; .324/.373/.527 in 188 AB’s; 4HR 32RBI; 13/14 SB; .256 vs. LHP, .345 vs. RHP, .429 with RISP, .297 in May; 8%bb/30% k rates; 44 games in the OF with 1 error (.988); 6 OF assists; Altherr has been outstanding this year with his strikeout rate the one caveat. I expect to see Altherr in Reading come July.  The Phils have to make a 40 man roster decision on him in the Fall and he should be challenged as much as possible this year.

Kelly Dugan, 22, Phils 2nd round pick in 2009; .336/.407/.584 in 125 AB’s; 6HR 25RBI; 0SB; .357 vs. LHP, .325 vs. RHP, .389 with RISP; .314 in May; 9%bb/21% k rates.  26 games in the OF without an error; 3 OF assists; Dugan has been excellent since missing the first few weeks of the season injured.  I would like to see him get another 200 or so AB’s at this level before consideration is given for the next step.

Kyrell Hudson, Phils 3rd round pick in 2009; .211/.274/.241 in 133 AB’s; 0HR 3RBI; 7/11 SB; .282 vs. LHP, .181 vs. RHP, .130 with RISP; .263 in May; 6%bb/35%k rates; 35 games in the OF with 2 errors (.979); 3 OF assists; Although improved in May, Hudson has been a non producer.  A speeed guy striking out in over a third of his AB’s is hugely problematic.

Cameron Perkins,22, Phils 6th round pick in 2012 draft; .337/.381/.513 in 199 AB’s; 3HR 31RBI; 3/6 SB; .382 vs. LHP; .319 vs. RHP; .431 with RISP; .320 in May; 6%bb/12% k rates. 43 games in the OF with 5 errors (.941); 6 OF assists. Perkins was hit on the hand last week an was placed on the DL and will be out until mid July.  Perkins has been the most consistent hitter in the Phils system and was probably one solid month away from promotion. 

Miguel Alvarez, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2007; Just activated when Perkins went on the DL.

Lakewood

Larry Greene, 20, Phils 1st round pick in 2011; 178/.322/.220 in 118 AB’s; 0HR 13RBI; 2/4SB; .061 vs. LHP, .224 vs. RHP, .250 with RISP; .179 in May; 17%bb/34% k rate. 34 games in the OF with 5 errors (.896); 1 OF assist. Just awful The lone positive is a good walk rate.

Brian Pointer, 21, Phils 28th round pick in 2010; .225/.352/.337 in 178AB’s; 3HR 27 RBI; 18/20 SB; .118 vs. LHP, .250 vs. RHP, .351 with RISP, .245 in May, 11%bb/24% k rates. 50 games in the OF with 3 errors (.963); 3 OF assists. If Pointer could hit LHP, we could have something hear.  Pointer has been producing runs and stealing bases, but his lack of success against lefties is holding him back.

Zach Taylor, 22, Phils 12th round pick in 2012 draft; .266/.324/.468 in 94 AB’s; 2HR 6RBI; 1/2 SB; .263 vs. LHP, .267 vs. RHP, .100 with RISP; .326 in May; 8%bb/36%k rates. 23 games in the OF with 1 error (.975); 1 assist. Taylor has been ok at best in limited playing time.  Striking out a ton with little run production.

Carlos Tocci, 17, Signed as a free agent in 2011; .233/.284/.286 in 189AB’s; 0HR 11RBI; 4/6 SB; .326 vs. LHP, .205 vs. RHP, .250 with RISP, .269 in May. 6%bb/12% K rate. 51 games in the OF with 2 errors (.986); 5 OF assists. Perhaps the most important stat for Tocci is his strikeout rate which is very good for any age, let alone 17.  Tocci is playing well enough not to be dropped back to Williamsport when their season begin.  Just 17, the Phils should give him a good 500 AB’s at this level. SHowing a very good arm in the OF.

27 thoughts on “Around the System–OF”

  2. Some improvement from earlier in the year.
    One reason to keep Altherr and Dugan in CLW into July is to possibly keep their trade value high. I would think good production at lower level (even if just a bit old) is more valuable than unknown production at a higher level. Of course, if the Phillies cannot get the value they’d want for them, then a promotion is worth the risk to get them a real look again top notch prospects.

    I’d expect both of them (especially Dugan) to be in the AFL this fall prior to making a 40 man roster decision.

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    1. I am not as big of a backer of Altherr and Dugan as others but I am not sure why the Phillies would be considering trading them at this point. I seriously doubt the Phillies will be buyers at the deadline this year and I don’t think Altherr or Dugan would have much value even if that was the scenario.

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  3. Does Perkins project as an every day player in the bigs? If so, how high is his ceiling?

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    1. I don’t know that you would say that he “projects” as an every day player, but he has a chance to get there. As for ceiling … off the cuff, I’d say average position regular. Don’t see enough to hope for more. (The usual caveat that ceiling does not mean :”absolute best possible result.”)

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    1. I would guess he stays at Lakewood. Although he has improved as the season has progressed, his physical immaturity seems to be his biggest issue. He would likely benefit from getting bigger and stronger and returning to Lakewood for another go around. He will still only be 18 and more than age appropriate at Lakewood next year. If he starts especially strong, they can always move him to Clearwater during the season.

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      1. I think he is on pace to start next year in Clearwater. He can mature physically at either level. If his approach and mechanics are advanced enough to handle Lakewood this year- and it seems like they are even though he doesn’t hit the ball with much authority- then Clearwater would be an appropriate challenge.

        We still have to see how he finishes out this season though. There’s a lot of baseball ahead.

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    2. I’m guessing the Phillies won’t really even think too much about where Tocci will be next season until spring training. A lot will depend on how he does the remainder of this year and how his body matures between now and spring training.

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      1. I think the Phillies decide about all of the minor leaguers in ST, although some of the eventual choices are forced by the number of minor league vets who are signed over the winter and that number is determined by where they guess the current minor leaguers will play next year. There isn’t a whole lot of OF talent in the system to block Tocci and the presumption should be that he will move on to Clearwater next season. If they choice is Hudson or Tocci in CF, I’m going with Tocci.

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  5. Larry Greene’s stat line is that of someone who is bad at baseball. It’s pretty difficult to imagine someone of high ability being associated with numbers like those.

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    1. Larry Greene looks like a failed draft pick who will keep coming out in bad shape for enough seasons to be able to keep all of his big bonus and then switch to football. He seems to have zilch interest in being a baseball player.

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  6. Leandro Castro is making a case that he should be on the 40 man roster over some of the guys currently there. He is outperforming Darin Ruf in nearly every offensive category, plus he is 3 years younger, and has the ability to play CF.
    I Believe, like Hewitt, Castro is eligible to become a Minor League Free agent at the end of the year. The Phillies should add him to the 40 man. If a spot is needed, they should remove one of the OF’s already on the 40. He is as much a prospect as Collier and Ruf.

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    1. Whether or not the Phillies are buyers or sellers come July, Ruben should keep an open mind to including Ruf in any trade packages, especially with an AL team that may value Ruf’s capabilities to be a DH vs LHP.

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    3. Collier has laid an egg this season, but I would rather still keep him for another season than Castro. Ruf did so well last season and has improved his OF D, so I will reserve judgement until the end of the season. As of today, Ruf has not made a case for remaining on the 40-man, but Castro has also not made the case for himself.

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      1. Ruf is a 26 years old in AAA, with a 26% K%, 9% BB% and a .735 OPS, playing only marginal LF.

        Collier is 22 years old in AA, with a 27% K%, 6% BB% and a .611 OPS, playing all three OF positions.

        Castro is 23 years old in AAA, with a 15% K%, 6% BB% and a .760 OPS, playing all three OF positions.

        Anyway you look at it, Leandro Castro is showing more than either Ruf or Collier. As far as trade value, none of the 3 players has ever had any trade value, so that is a moot point. Its about whatever marginal value either of the 3 adds to the roster.

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        1. I said it at the end of last year that castro was the guy. I bet you right now amaro jordan and company are probably kicking themselves in the rear end bc they chose to put collier on the 40 rather than castro. The funny thing about this whole thing was that collier had a hot 60 abs in the AFL and all of a sudden he is a prospect. When has this guy ever performed? Never point blank….

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          1. Castro is still Phillies property rightnow correct? Why would they be kicking themselves for that?

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            1. I think he means that if Castro were on the 40-man, it would be easier to bring him up as a 5th OF this season to replace Young or Nix.

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            2. They added Mini-Mart fairly easily. Don’t see why this is that big of an issue. Or at least big enough to kick themselves over.

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            3. Not really. They would have to DFA Young or Nix either way, opening up a spot for Castro.

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        2. Castro projects as a 4th outfielder down the line. Collier is a mystery – he looked to be close to a breakout but has struggled. Ruf has no trade value, but he has a good history as a minor league hitter including a whale of a season last year and, having watched him play a bit, he really has a good swing, plus power, good balance and decent plate discipline. He’s just cold and struggling right now – probably focusing on his fielding and pressing at the plate. My sense is that he is going to bust out and when he does, he could be promoted quickly (like, a month). It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he were getting a ton of at bats in Philadelphia in late August.

          The Phillies need one more power bat in the line up – everyone knows that if it could be Ruf, it will allow the team to be judicious about trading other minor league players rather than doing another big sell off to obtain another Hunter Pence – a player who was too expensive to begin with and, like Cliff Lee, we really didn’t have to trade. I’m not saying that the second trade was – in terms of value for value – a bad trade – Joseph and Rosin was not a bad haul. However, like the second Lee trade, anytime you make a trade and, within a year, the player you traded may be the difference between your team getting over the hump (whatever that hump may be – here, it’s playoff team versus non-playoff team), then it probably was not such a great trade. Ruben is nothing if not impulsive – these and many other GM vices are regularly on display for your viewing pleasure.

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          1. One thing you said was that he is a proven Minor League hitter. Yes, in a sense that he has proven to be a good Double A hitter. He hasn’t proven to be able to hit AAA pitching and therefore it is not a given that he can hit major league pitching over the long term. Counting on Ruf to be the Phillies power bat, is just wishful thinking at best.

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