Lots of picks today, lots of guys who will never make it past AA, and maybe a few potential stars. I’ll do my best to keep this updated today, but I’m already swamped at work with a deadline today, so no promises.

226. Johnny Coy, 3B (Benson HS, MO)
256. Julio Rodriguez, RHP (Puerto Rico BB Academy HS)
286. Casey Overbeck, 3B (Mississippi)
316. Jean Rodriguez, C (George Washington HS, NY)
346. Michael Stutes, RHP (Oregon State)
376. James Weber, RHP (Central Clearwater Catholic HS, FL) [I think his name is Ryan, thats how BA lists him, if its the same guy)
406. Brian Rosenberg, RHP (Louisville)
436. Michael Schwimer, RHP (UVA)
466. Damarii Saunderson, OF (Northville HS, MI)
496. Troy Hanzawa, SS (San Diego State)
526. James Murphy, 1B (Washington State)
556. Tyler Cloyd, RHP (No School)
586. Stephen Susdorf, OF (Fresno State)
616. Eryk McConnell, RHP (NC State)
646. Sean Grieve, LHP (William and Mary)
676. Daniel Hargrave, 2B (UNC Wilmington)
706. Brandon Haislet, OF (Hawaii)
736. David Noles, LHP (Columbus State)
766. Daniel Edwards, RHP (Kansas State)
796. Ryan Bergh, RHP (Old Dominion)
826. Chad Poe, RHP (Bossier Parish CC)
856. Jordan Ellis, RHP (Villanova)
886. Keon Broxton, 3B (Lakeland High School, FL)
916. DJ Henderson, SS (Southeastern HS, MI)
946. Spencer Arroyo, LHP (Modesto JuCo, CA)
976. Sean Ellis, RHP (Polk CC, FL)
1006. James Simpson, 1B (Dowagiac Union HS, MI)
1036. Blaine O’Brien, RHP (Scituate HS, MA)
1066. Ruddy Rio-Nunez, OF (Edouard Montpetit HS)
1096. Michael Cisco, RHP (South Carolina)
1126. Matthew Johnson, OF (John W North HS, CA)

Ok. So I debated just waiting to give my thoughts on today’s picks until the draft was finished, but then I wouldn’t get anything up on the site till next week, and I didn’t want to do that, so I figured I’d give my initial thoughts now, then I’ll do a bit more next week and touch on the second day of the draft and my overall impressions. First, I want to thank everyone for visiting (over and over again, I’m sure) as we set a new record for single day hits, well over 13,000, far doubling the previous high, which was a year ago on draft day. Second, I appreciate all of the comments and feedback, it was a blast to follow the draft here and get everyone’s thoughts as it happened, and there was certainly a wide array of opinions. I feel like I just need to continue to state it, just so I’m clear. I’m not here to be a cog in the Phillies PR machine. I’m not affiliated with the Phillies, and I’m not affiliated with any other site, despite efforts by other sites to incorporate me into their setup. My opinion is my own, its based on the things I see and read, and its just that, my opinion. I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with me, and I’m open to every opinion possible, as long as that opinion is backed up with something of substance. The reality of right now is, we won’t really know what these players will provide for 1-5 years, we’re just guessing and going with our initial gut reaction. But all of that said, its still fun. So, lets get to it.

Continue reading Day 1 thoughts/review →

We’ll keep the regular discussion in the long draft post, but I’ll update this one as well with our selections, along with scouting reports where applicable.

24. Anthony Hewitt, SS (Salisbury School, CT)

Hewitt is the epitome of high-risk, high-reward. The risk starts with his signability: Any team that drafts Hewitt must be prepared to open its wallet and buy the academic-minded Brooklyn native-turned-Connecticut boarding school star out of a commitment to Vanderbilt. There’s also a huge risk that he simply won’t hit in professional ball: his raw bat was overmatched against quality pitching on the showcase circuit last summer, and though he dominated vastly inferior prep competition this spring, he still struggles to recognize breaking balls and can get locked up at times by ordinary fastballs. But then he’ll crush a ball 450 feet and give scouts a glimpse of his prodigious upside. Several scouts said he was second to Tim Beckham as the best athlete at the East Coast showcase last summer, and he has three legitimate above-average tools in his raw power, speed and arm strength. His muscular 6-foot-1, 190-pound frame evokes Ron Gant, and his work ethic and charisma stand out. Hewitt plays shortstop for Salisbury, but his poor footwork, stiff actions and lack of instincts will dictate a shift to third base or more likely the outfield, where he has enough speed and arm strength for center or right. Hewitt has generated mountains of buzz in the Northeast and could sneak into the supplemental round or even the back of the first round if a club falls in love with his potential enough to overlook his crudeness.

Check below for the rest of the picks…

Continue reading And the Phillies take…. →

Well folks, the draft has arrived. All the time spent analyzing players, reading scouting reports, and thinking about who we want/don’t want, and today is the day. The draft starts at 2PM Eastern, and the first round + compensation round will be shown on ESPN2. As you may have heard by now, the Phillies have lots of picks in the first 5 rounds, and a real chance to add a bunch of talent to the system. The Phillies have hinted that they will be more aggressive in terms of taking better talent, but they’ve also name dropped a couple of really questionable guys, at least in my opinion. I’ll post the full draft order, and we’ll discuss the draft as it unfolds. Any last minute rumors, post them here. Any random thoughts as it unfolds, post them here. I’ll do a full wrapup of today’s action later tonight with detailed thoughts. Baseball Prospectus is doing a roundtable chat today starting at 1PM, which will supplement the TV coverage nicely. You can get prepared for that right here.

Round 1

01. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, GA)
02. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt)
03. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer, 1B (American Heritage School, FL)
04. Baltimore – Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego)
05. San Francisco – Buster Posey, C (Florida State)
06. Florida – Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA)
07. Cincinnati – Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami)
08. Chicago White Sox – Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia)
09. Washington – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri)
10. Houston – Jason Castro, C (Stanford)
11. Texas – Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina)
12. Oakland – Jemile Weeks, 2B (Miami)
13. St Louis – Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State)
14. Minnesota – Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP (Wilson HS, CA)
15. LA Dodgers – Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP (Stephens County HS, GA)
16. Milwaukee – Brett Lawrie, C (Brookswood Secondary School, BC)
17. Toronto – David Cooper, 1B (California)
18. NY Mets – Ike Davis, 1B (Arizona State)
19. Chicago Cubs – Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU)
20. Seattle – Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)
21. Detroit – Ryan Perry, RHP (Arizona)
22. NY Mets – Reese Havens, SS (South Carolina)
23. San Diego – Allan Dykstra, 1B (Wake Forest)
24. Philadelphia – Anthony Hewitt, SS (Salisbury School, CT)
25. Colorado – Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky)
26. Arizona – Daniel Schlereth, LHP (Arizona)
27. Minnesota – Carlos Gutierrez, RHP (Miami)
28. NY Yankees – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
29. Cleveland – Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (Pitt CC, NC)
30. Boston – Casey Kelly, SS (Sarasota HS, FL)

Continue reading The official Draft Day discussion thread →

Kevin Goldstein checks in with his mock draft today, and he comes to the same conclusion I did.

24. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies tend to favor young, toolsy players with their top picks, but they went against the grain last year when Rice southpaw Joe Savery fell into their lap. There’s not going to be a player like that for them this year, and based on where it looked like he would go as recently as a week ago, Collier is a nice find here. Once seen as a top 15 pick, Collier’s game is a bit on the crude side, but his tools all grade out well, and many think his potential ranks with any high school position player out there.
Selection: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Jim Callis has us grabbing Shooter Hunt

24. PHILADELPHIA. With Matusz and Crow seeking major league contracts and Scheppers getting hurt, Hunt was positioned as the best slot-money college starter just a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched well down the stretch and is sliding, but his stuff is too good to drop out of the first round. The Phillies have been associated with toolsy high school athletes such as fast-rising Connecticut shortstop Anthony Hewitt and California outfielder Zach Collier, but they may wait until their sandwich pick at No. 34 to take that plunge.

Projected Pick: SHOOTER HUNT, rhp, Tulane.

Jonathon Mayo ends up going with Zach Collier as his final guess.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Calif.
The Phillies don’t shy away from the toolsy high schoolers and could very well take someone like Anthony Hewitt in this spot, with a sleeper like Destin Hood getting some consideration as well.
Last projection: Ethan Martin

Keith Law adds to the Collier party

24. Philadelphia — Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) H.S.

Collier won’t get past the Twins at No. 27 if the Phillies go with Hewitt or Jason Knapp here.

Well, its that time. Tomorrow is draft day, and that means its time for my final mock draft. You can see version 2.1 here and version 1.1 here. For the last mock draft I put out (2.1), I tried to base my projections mainly off of draft trends, and not really focusing on the latest rumors, as I think track record is generally more important when considering who will go where. Now that we’re only a few days away from the draft, I’m going to take those track records as well as the latest rumors into consideration and try to give my absolute best guess. I’ll go through the first 34 picks, which would cover the Phillies compensation pick. I think trying to guess after the first round is pretty nearly impossible, as the talent dropoff begins and the signability factor, which few of us really have a handle on, becomes a big issue. So, lets get started….

Continue reading Mock draft version 3.1, the final cut →

KG released his Top 50 today in terms of pure talent, with a mock draft coming tomorrow. Here’s where he ranks a bunch of the guys the Phillies have been linked to…

22. Anthony Hewitt, SS, The Salisbury School (CT)
What He Is: On a pure tools level, he’s the best athlete in this year’s draft, maybe the past several years.
What He’s Not: A baseball player.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An absolute monster.
Backup Plan: You want fries with that? All kidding aside, he’s a bright kid who’ll go to a good school and end up just fine if this whole baseball thing doesn’t work out.
Open Issues: His risk/reward balance is so thrown off that people have a hard time coming up with a good valuation; like many East Coast prep kids, he’s a year older than most high schoolers.

25. Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
What He Is: A toolsy player who rocketed from decent prospect to surefire first rounder with an outstanding spring.
What He’s Not: Polished or experienced.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A player with a very good batting average and decent power.
Backup Plan: Fourth outfielder.
Open Issues: Without a ton of power or a ton of speed, is he a tweener?

28. David Cooper, 1B, California
What He Is: Yet another bat-only college first baseman, but loaded with everyone’s favorite two p’s, power and plate discipline.
What He’s Not: A guy who will ever be a good defender or win a foot race.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order run producer.
Backup Plan: Something less than that, but he’s pretty much first base and DH only.
Open Issues: He is what he is, as his body doesn’t offer a ton of projection.

30. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
What He Is: The son of an NFL lineman and a bulky lefty who’s velocity is hard to match among this year’s crop of southpaws.
What He’s Not: Anything more than a reliever.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: Randy Myers?
Backup Plan: More of a set-up type.
Open Issues: He has a long medical record, including a Tommy John surgery; his delivery has a lot of moving parts.

38. Brett Devall, LHP, Niceville HS (FL)
What He Is: As advanced as any high school arm in the draft, with outstanding control and a deep arsenal.
What He’s Not: A power arm.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A fourth starter.
Backup Plan: Some kind of big leaguer.
Open Issues: Can the fringe-average fastball set up the secondary stuff? Does his ceiling justify his price, or is there such a thing as a safe high school arm?