Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half

Other Stuff

The report card on Starting Pitchers in the lower half of the organization.  Remember, grades are against each pitchers pre-season expectations I had for them, not against each other.  Next up are Relief Pitchers (LV, Reading and Clearwater)…lots of names, so I am shooting for Tuesday.

Lakewood

Mark Leiter, 22, Phils 22nd round draft pick in 2013 draft; 16 games (4 starts) between GCL, Lakewood and Clearwater; 45IP 34H 13BB 50K; 0.71 GO/AO; .210 opp. avg; 1.04 WHIP; 2.6BB/10.0K per nine; Leiter pitched extremely well after being drafted this year, having success at each level he pitched at.  Grade: A; 2014: He will be 23 by the time the 2014 season starts and has done nothing to suggest he shouldnt start the season in CLearwater.

Miguel Nunez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 26 games (22 starts); 10-8 with a 4.22ERA; 130IP 136H 38BB 80K; 5HR allowed; 0.82 GO/AO; .270 opp. avg; .315 vs. LH, .239 vs. RH, .265 with RISP; 1.34WHIP; 2.6BB/5.5K per nine;  Post All Star Break: 13 starts, 5-4 with a 3.59ERA. Nunez really came on as the year moved along and was perhaps Lakewood’s most consistent second half starter. He skipped over WIlliamsport to play in Lakewood this year and his 2013 should be considered very successful.  Grade: B; 2014: Clearwater Continue reading Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half →

Top 30 Accountability: 1-5

** My Top 30 Prospects

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

The first thing I see when looking at this list is that all 5 of these guys did not step forward.  Four out of the five dealt with some sort of physical set back (injury/illness).  In reality it comes down to you just can’t predict a lot of things and sometimes it all breaks the wrong way.  This certainly does not excuse us from our duty of making good analysis, but we do need to acknowledge things out of our control.  As always the original list is here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.

5. Ethan Martin

Martin has a ton of upside if he can prove his new control is real, though the lack of a good changeup is concerning.  This ranking reflects the raw stuff that Martin has; a plus plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and another average breaking ball to pair with what profiles as an average changeup.  I believe the new command is legitimate and even if the changeup does not develop Martin as at least a dominant reliever. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 1-5 →

Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Top Half

Other Stuff

The report card on starting pitchers at the upper levels. Next up: Starting pitchers at Lakewood, Williamsport and the GCL on Thursday or Friday.

Lehigh Valley

Adam Morgan, 23, Phils 3rd round pick in 2011 draft; 16 starts; 2-7 with a 4.04ERA; 71.1IP 84H 26BB 49K; 10HR allowed; 0.73 GO/AO; .296 opp. avg., .284 vs. LH; .300 vs. RH, .266 with RISP; 3.3BB/6.2K per 9; 1.54 WHIP; Since Aug 1: 1-2 with a a3.18 ERA in 6 starts. A disappointing year for Morgan who spent a good portion of it on the DL with shoulder issues. When he came back, his ERA was good but he was pitching in and out of trouble in each start never lasting more than 5 innings.  I am concerned that he was still hurt at the end of the year. Grade: D+; 2014: Lehigh Valley rotation; Prospect Ranking: 8

David Buchanan, 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2010 draft; 28 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 10-13 with a 4.40ERA; 169.2IP 178H 53BB 108K; 1.10GO/AO; .274 opp. avg; 1.36 WHIP; 2.8BB/5.7K per 9; In 6 starts with Lehigh Valley: 4-2 with a 3.00ERA; 1.23 WHIP; and .250 opp. avg. Buchanan really opened some eyes during his call up to Lehigh Valley at the end of the year pitching very well with a lot of innings already on his arm this year.  Coming back from a significant injury in 2012, Buchanan substantially raised his profile with his final month of the season.  Grade: B; 2014: Lehigh Valley rotation and a 40 man roster spot; Prospect Ranking: 38 Continue reading Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Top Half →

General Discussion – Week of 9-16-2013

Weekly Discussion

The young guys have looked pretty good with the big club, especially Cody Asche. I was out at the game Saturday in DC and he made a tough play and a good throw home with the bases loaded. His defense certainly passes the eye test for now, though if I were to identify a potential problem right now, I’d say he leaves a lot of throws low. Anyone else notice this? Could be just me, and really, better to leave your 1B with a chance to pick a ball than sail one five feet over his head.

BJ Rosenberg touched 96 on the stadium gun that same night, (might have been the same inning), and his off-speed stuff has been working since his most recent recall from AAA. He’s looking like the guy people hoped he might become before injuries slowed him down a few years back. Also, tomorrow is his 28th birthday. So good for him or whatever.

Discuss.

Top 30 Accountability: 6 – 10

** My Top 30 Prospects

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

When I wrote up the Top 30 I had Biddle and Morgan in their own tier followed by Quinn and then a bunch of names you could have argued in any order.  In that scenario I find the ranking to not provide a lot of information, because at the time the difference between 3 and 7, and as far down to Tocci at 10 was miniscule.  It is the problem with doing a numerical ranking is that you create an artificial hierarchy where none exists.  So the emphasis is much more on the reports and analysis than the order in which the names appear.  As always the initial list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/

10. Shane Watson

Watson is very polished with two plus pitches and an average changeup under development.  He should easily handle a full season assignment and could move quickly through the system.  Watson’s limited debut due to diabetes should be behind him and he impressed in instructs.  With a good year Watson could be near the top of this list. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 6 – 10 →

Report Card, Outfielders–Lower Half

Other Stuff

The report card on all outfielders who finished the year at Lakewood, Williamsport or the GCL. A reminder that grades are based on pre-season expectations against that same individual player, NOT against each other. Next up will be starting pitchers (Lehigh Valley, Reading and Clearwater)

Lakewood

Carlos Tocci, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2012; .209/.261/.249 in 421 AB’s; 0HR 26RBI; 6/13 SB; .223 vs. LHP; .203 vs. RHP; .227 with RISP; .169 since Aug 1; 5%BB/17% K rate; 117 games in the OF with 4 errors (.987); 10 OF assists; Tocci played with guys 2-3 years older than him and mostly held his own, especially in the field where he is an excellent outfielder. He has the build of a 17 year old and was wholly without power this year.  His production dwindled further as the year went on and the “grind” wore him down. Grade: C; Tocci did no more or no less than I thought this year; I just can’t make myself give a grade higher than that to someone who hit .180 for half the year(.179 post all star break)…let the criticism begin.  2014: Tocci clearly has alot of potential…let him realize it and experience success through another year in Lakewood.; Prospect Ranking: 11 Continue reading Report Card, Outfielders–Lower Half →

Top 30 Accountability : 11-15

Other Stuff

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

The 11-15 range was filled with disappointment.  There are a lot of high risk high rewards guys present and it did not go out well.  Additionally I was flat out wrong in my evaluation in some places.  As always the full list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.

15. Dylan Cozens

Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power.  He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach.  In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield.  Even if he has to move to first the bat will play.  He is likely destined for Extended Spring Training and Williamsport but could find a way to Lakewood at some point. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability : 11-15 →

Top 30 Accountability: 16-20

** My Top 30 Prospects

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

Continuing on with the next group of 5 players including a 2 relievers, 2 players who had disappointing years, and a player with decent potential in the low minors.  As always the original list lives here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/

20. Sebastian Valle

Valle has no real approach and just sells out for power at the plate.  This leads to a high strikeout rate with a really low walk rate.  At the major league level that approach will be completely exposed.  Behind the plate Valle is a very good receiver, but he does not have a good release making him below average against the run game despite a plus arm.  Overall Valle will need to improve greatly to have a chance as anything more than a marginal back up. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 16-20 →

Report Card–Outfield, Upper Half of System

Other Stuff

The report card for outfielders in the top half of the organization. Remember, grades are based against pre season expectations of that player, not against each other. Next up is the report card for the outfielders in the lower half of the organization, coming up over the weekend.

Lehigh Valley

Leandro Castro, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .256/.280/.368 in 438AB’s; 8HR 55RBI; 20SB; .328 vs. LHP; .228 vs. RHP; .308 with RISP; .226 Post All Star Break; 3%bb/17%K rates; 115 games in the OF with 8 errors; 8 OF assists; Castro performed better than I thought that he would at the AAA level and was a consistently clutch performer for the IronPigs.  He lowered his strikeout rate to a very manageable level and stole a respectable 20 bases.  The negatives are the continued very low walk rate and the fact that Castro is prone to enter outer space for periods of time causing some real head scratching plays.  All that said, 2013 was a success. Grade: B; 2014: Castro is a guy that could realistically be plucked in the Rule 5 if not protected.  Frankly, I was designate Gillies for assignment and protect Castro to give him another year to progress. He very well could become a capable 4th OF.

Steve Susdorf, 27, Phils 19th round pick in 2008 draft; .313/.390/.403 in 310AB’s; 2HR 36RBI; 11SB; .279 vs. LHP; .321 vs. RHP; .293 with RISP; .269 Post All Star Break; 11%BB/15%k rates; 64 games in the OF with 3 errors (.970); 3 OF assists; Also played 1 game at 1B with 1 error. Susdorf had an excellent year with the bat for Lehigh Valley. The only negative is the laack of power but Susdorf gives you perhaps the best at bat throughout the minor league system.  Problematically, his defense is passable at best. Grade: A; 2014: Again, trying to separate my feelings as Susdorf is a super guy…I would be surprised if Susdorf is not exposed to the Rule 5 draft and could easily help a team, giving very capable major league at bats in a limited role. I am hoping he is back and the Phils give him a chance to earn the 25th spot on the roster in a role similar to Greg Gross, who Susdorf reminds me of…Realisitically, either another organization or Lehigh Valley. Continue reading Report Card–Outfield, Upper Half of System →

General Discussion – Week of 9-9-2013

Weekly Discussion

We still haven’t seen Cam Rupp. Wonder if that’s coming tonight with Tyler Cloyd on the hill. Also yet to see action is the bullpen version of Ethan Martin. I’m certainly interested in both events, whenever they come.

Discuss.