Category Archives: 03. Draft Central

Draft and Follow Update

Time for another update on our final DFE class. Here is a piece on Shawn Epps, talking about his recent performance, and noting he’s touched 94 mph this spring.

Rashad Taylor: 145AB — .434/.520/.724 — 11 2B — 3B — 7 HR — 24 BB/25 K — 13/18 SB
Shawn Epps: 42 IP, 3.00 ERA — 1.14 WHIP — 35 H — 13 BB — 35 K
Bobby Haney: 104 AB — .308 BA — 6 2B – 2 3B – 1 HR – 27 RBI – 3/4 SB
Gerard Mohrmann: 14 IP, 9.64 ERA — 1.64 WHIP — 13 H – 10 BB — 16 K
Daniel Faulkner: 30 IP, 4.20 ERA — 1.43 WHIP — 22 H — 21 BB – 27 K
Yazi Arbelo: MIA
Patrick Murray: 158 AB — .392/.453/.494 — 32 R — 8 2B — 1 3B — 2 HR — 30 RBI
Ty Manumaleuna: 112 AB — .277 BA — 8 2B – 5 HR – 28 RBI
Nick Morreale: MIA

Of the group, I think only Taylor and Epps will warrant nice bonuses. Faulkner may opt to head to a 4 year school to try and raise his draft stock, or may choose to re-enter the draft and stay in JuCo again next year. I’ve been banging the drum for Taylor for a while, we’ll see what happens.

Thinking about the 2007 draft

Some various odds and ends on the brain today, so let’s crank through them. First, take a few minutes and head over to the Ottawa Lynx blog and check out the various pictures, and even some video footage of our affiliate north of the border. Second, a bit of troubling news yesterday, as Dan Brauer left after two innings pitched in Clearwater. I’ve looked, no indication yet as to what happened, but let’s hope it isn’t serious. If you hear/find anything, drop me a line. With the addition of new correspondants who will be helping with the weekly reports for each affiliate, I’ll be getting back to writing more feature pieces and profiles. First up is a profile of Jason Jaramillo (hopefully tomorrow), I’d like to also look at Welinson Baez, but after that, I’m open to suggestions. To read all past profiles, check here and if a guy you’d like to see hasn’t been done yet, let me know and I’ll do my best. I’m also planning a piece on minor league park factors, something that I think is of real importance when looking at minor league statistics. But for today, let’s take a look at the upcoming 2007 draft. I’m also pleased to announce that JE at PhilliesDraft.com has agreed to provide some insight on who the Phillies might target, as well as scouting reports on players as we get closer to the draft. Be sure and check out his site for more info than you could ever ask for on past Phillies drafts.

Continue reading Thinking about the 2007 draft

Light Sunday reading

The Blueclaws are developing a disturbing pattern, losing heartbreakers in the late innings….sounds a bit like the big league club. Also in the article, Adrian Cardenas talks about making adjustments and dealing with the transition from high school ball to pro ball. Also, here is a nice article talking about John Russell and the job he’s done in Ottawa. The article mentions Russell’s offseason interviews for managerial positions, and hints at him being a possible replacement for Charlie Manuel, should the big league club get impatient. Not directly Phillies related (a Phillies scout gives a quote), by Ty Reynolds writes this excellent article on the art of scouting, and just how grueling the life of a pro baseball scout can be.

In Rashad Taylor news, it appears in the last few weeks he’s begun to switch hit, and has picked up a few extra base hits over that time. The last sentence of the article says that him switch hitting might “raise his stock to be recruited by a Division 1 school”…..it would be nice if the Phillies made the kid a quality offer, but something tells me it isn’t going to happen.

Nice Rashad Taylor article

Thanks to e-mailer BC for sending me this article on Rashad Taylor, our top draft and follow prospect. The article talks about the hardships Taylor had to overcome as a child, losing his father when he was only 5, as well as his impressive run this season at Skyline Community College. Taylor also hinted that he’s looking for “Top 12 round money” from the Phillies if he’s to sign, or he’ll return to Skyline next season. Top 12 round money really doesn’t tell you much, as only the first four rounds or so garner big bonuses. A large bonus for a DFE is normally in the 750k to 1 million range, so if Taylor is looking for something in the 250K to 500K range, I think he’d be more than worth it. The Phillies have until June 1st to make a decision.

Also, check out Jeff Crupper’s Threshers Blog, very well done. I’ve added a permanent link to the right in the blogroll. Nice work Jeff.

Draft and Follow Report, 4/5

I mentioned Rashad Taylor a few days ago, but I wanted to give an update on all of our DFE’s at this point. So here we go.

Rashad Taylor (as of 3/30): .444/.543/.808 in 99 AB, 5 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 32 RBI
Shawn Epps (as of 4/4): 30 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 H, 9 BB, 29 K
Bobby Haney (as of 4/4): 74 AB, .297 BA, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 2/3 SB,
Gerard Mohrmann (as of 4/4): 14 IP, 9.64 ERA, 13 H, 10 BB, 16 K
Daniel Faulkner (as of 4/4): 26.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 16 H, 14 BB, 23 K
Yazy Arbelo (as of 4/4): 60 AB, .338 BA, 2 2B, 6 HR, 24 RBI
Patrick Murray (as of 4/4): .410/.453/.484, 7 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI
Ty Manumaleuna (as of 4/4): 97 AB, .247 BA, 8 2B, 1 HR, 19 RBI
Nick Morreale See Below

Note 1: Yazy Arbelo is still being listed on the Seminole website with the team roster, but he is no longer listed on the stats page, and his stats from the NCAA JuCo site don’t appear updated, as most of his teammates have close to 100 AB. I’ve put a note in to a few people, no one has any idea or they haven’t gotten back to me.

Note 2: Nick Morreale’s school hasn’t sent stats to the JuCo website that lists all statistics for all D1-D3 schools. Nick’s father, who has left a few comments with us this spring, had this to say

I just came back from a week in Arizona watching my son, Nick Morreale and his teammates play some ball. Nick was 8-10 and 3 walks with a 4 RBI’s in the games I was able to see. He is splitting the catching duties with another young man who was also drafted in the 2006 Draft by the Mariners. In talking to Coach Cirelli, he plans on using Nick at Third base when not catching to get his bat in the lineup. The baseball is very competitive down there with most teams in the league having 3-5 draft picks each. The pitching is always 88-90+.

I appreciate the update on Nick.

Note 3: Shawn Epps was out of action for a while with a tweaked lower back, per this article, but appears to be back and healthy. Tip o’ the cap to JE for the link.

That’s all the info I have at this point. I don’t have a subscription to PG Crosschecker, which does a ranking of all the draft and follow players in the spring, maybe when that is posted, someone can drop us a line and let us know where Rashad Taylor and Daniel Faulkner rank, as they look like our two best bets. If anyone has any other info, articles, or anything else on our guys, please pass it along to me, either in the comments section or via e-mail. Thanks.

UPDATE 1 —> Thanks to JE again for the Patrick Murray link, for some reason, the link I had saved wasn’t working.

Two nice Rashad Taylor articles

rashadtaylor2.jpg

Rashad Taylor, our top draft and follow for this season, has really put up some solid numbers thus far this season, and people are noticing. This article, from the San Francisco Examiner, talks about Taylor in depth and his season. The last line of the article is the most telling

Ultimately, Taylor’s goal — maybe sooner than later — is to go pro.

“That’s what I want to do,” Taylor said. “If a good four-year school comes along then I’ll take that into consideration, but that’s what I want to do. I want to play pro ball.”

Because Taylor wasn’t a huge prospect in June, the Phillies might be able to sign him on the cheap, especially with his desire to play pro ball. The Palo Alto Daily News also has a small blurb on Taylor, just scroll down half way. Taylor has refined his swing and added lots of torque and power. The blurb mentions a batting practice ball he hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 480 feet….not bad. The good news is, his power has translated onto the field, with a .700+ slugging %. The previous article mentioned he tweaked his back a few weeks ago, which is limiting his power, but his overall approach is still outstanding.

I’ll do a further update on the rest of our DFE’s some time this week. Thanks to e-mailer Christopher for the two articles above.

Phillies targeting Rosario?

rosario1.JPG

Before I get to the new tidbit about the Phillies interest in Francisco Rosario, I wanted to dig into the construction of the 25 man roster a bit, as it was mentioned in depth in this mlb.com article. The article basically outlines the makeup of the Phillies opening day roster, barring any more unforeseen developments. If Jon Lieber starts the season on the DL, the two open spots in the bullpen will likely be filled by Clay Condrey and Jim Ed Warden. The two bench spots will likely be filled by Karim Garcia and Greg Dobbs, with Chris Coste being the odd man out, mainly due to logistics and his hamstring tweak. It also appears that Jason Jaramillo will stick with the team if Carlos Ruiz isn’t ready for opening day, and that Michael Bourn could stay up with the team for the first few games if Freddy Garcia starts the year on the DL, allowing the Phillies to carry an extra player.

So, are these the right decisions? First, I think keeping Condrey over Segovia might be a mistake. However, if Condrey is going to just be a mop-up guy, then I guess it’s understandable. Segovia is still young and still has some promise, Condrey is your typical AAAA pitcher who is easily replaceable. Warden, because he’s a Rule 5 guy, is a bit of a different case. He’s had some rough outings and some solid outings this spring. Again, my hope is that the Phillies work out a trade with Cleveland where they get to keep Warden and option him to the minors so he can get comfortable before being thrust into the majors. The Phillies should contend for the division from Day 1, they can’t afford to use a 24 man roster and just hide Warden for the season like they did with Fabio Castro last year. As for the outfield, I’d prefer they kept Bourn over Garcia, mainly because I don’t think Garcia is going to sustain any type of success in the majors over the course of the season. Then again, if Aaron Rowand is traded, which has been a rumor basically since the winter meetings, then Bourn will almost assuredly get a spot in the OF. Dobbs has performed well this spring and has almost been the 2007 version of Chris Coste. Hopefully the Phillies can catch lightning in a bottle for the second year in a row.

Also, according to the Inquirer, the Phillies had scouts at the Blue Jays game keeping an eye on RHP Francisco Rosario. Rosario is out of options, which means if he isn’t kept on the Blue Jays 25 man roster, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranked Rosario as the Blue Jays #5 prospect, saying

The Good: Tommy John survivor thrived in a move to the bullpen at Triple-A and finally reached the majors after a minor-league career that was long in years, but consisted of less than 500 innings. Rosario’s velocity is the best in the system, sitting at 93-95 mph and touching 98. As a reliever, his other primary pitch is a hard slider with good depth.

So, there is some talent there. Rosario, who turned 26 in June, has been slowed down with injuries, and as noted above, Tommy John surgery, hence him being out of options before he’s really made a mark at the big league level. He proved to be fairly unhittable at AAA last season, allowing only 29 hits in 42 innings, while striking out 50 and walking 13. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing only 2 HR, and posted a 50:28 GB to FB ratio. His big league debut wasn’t very good, largely because he allowed 16 walks in only 23 innings, but we can write that off to nerves and adjustment.

Rosario is a guy that can probably step right into the major league bullpen, and might be a better option going forward than a guy like Warden or Condrey, but the question is going to be what will it cost. With so many teams starving for arms, he surely won’t clear waivers, so the Phillies would need to make a deal for him. Stay tuned.

UPDATE ——> Per delewareonline, the Phillies released Karim Garcia. That puts an interesting twist on things, and could clear the way for Bourn as the 5th OF, or could assure Coste of a spot on the roster.

UPDATE 2 —-> The Jim Ed Warden experiment has ended, as he was re-claimed by the Indians today.

Draft and Follow Update

Thanks to emailer Dave, I have an update on Patrick Murray, one of our numerous draft and follows. Murray is playing at Golden West College, a solid program in a solid league, and is off to a nice start

.443/.494/.543 with 5 2B, 1 3B, and 14 RBI. He’s drawn 7 walks to only 4 strikeouts in 70 AB.

Also, it should be noted, Murray has already signed a letter of intent with Oral Roberts University. That doesn’t mean the Phillies won’t make a run at him, but it probably means he’s going to demand a decent sized bonus. Here is the blurb from the above article on Murray

Patrick Murray * IF * 6-2 * 230 * Huntington Beach, Calif. (Marina HS/Golden West College)

Currently a sophomore at Golden West College in Huntington Beach, Calif. … Starred last year at Santa Anna Junior College where he hit .330 with three home runs and 22 RBI in only 29 games played … Prepped at Marina High School where he earned 1st team all-league honors his junior and senior year … Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 31st round in 2005 and by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 46th round in 2006 … Choose ORU over UNLV, Cal Poly, and Loyola Marymount … says Walton, “Patrick has good size and is a very good hitter who should fill one of the holes in our lineup next year. He has a chance to bat in the middle of the lineup and to drive in runs.”

Stay tuned…

Draft and Follow Update

rashadtaylor2.jpg

It looks like Rashad Taylor is trying to show the Phillies he’s worth a bigtime bonus, as he continues to rake for Skyline Community College. In 15 games this season, Taylor’s batting line looks like this:

50 AB, .460/.575/.880 with 3 2B, 3 3B, and 4 HR.

He’s also drawn 15 walks to only 7 K. That’s quite a start to the season for Taylor, and after his hot start, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Here are the statistics for the rest of our picks, what I could track down at least.

Shawn Epps (37th rd): 22 IP, 2.05 ERA, 16 H, 24 K, 7 BB
Bobby Haney (38th rd): 48 AB, .271 BA, 2 2B, 0 HR, 15 RBI
Gerard Mohrmann (39th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment
Daniel Faulkner (42nd rd): 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4 H, 9 BB, 9 K
Yazy Arbelo (43rd rd): 68 AB, .338/.402/.632, 2 2B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 8 BB, 13 K
Patrick Murray (45th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment
Ty Manumaleuna (47th rd): 50 AB, .280/.438/.380 5 2B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 12 BB, 11 K
Nick Morreale (48th rd): Can’t find info on him at the moment

With this being the last season of the traditional draft and follow, it will be interesting to see the approach clubs take, especially the Phillies. Gillick wasn’t afraid to take chances in the 2006 draft, he signed a bunch of high ceiling guys, will he be willing to offer Taylor $500,000 to sign? Will Taylor take that much or choose to go back into the draft? Should be interesting to watch.

Real Quick Draft and Follow Update

Yazy Arbelo and Rashad Taylor are both off to flying starts,  both with an OPS over 1.000. I created a spreadsheet to track all the draft picks, and I’ll share it here for anyone that wants a copy.

Click this link, it should prompt you to open the file or save it, it’s an EXCEL file, do either. I’ll probably update the sheet every few weeks or so, so check back here to get the latest updates. We’re in the beginning of the season, so a lot of guys haven’t played yet, or their stats haven’t been updated on the various sites. Some sites don’t give things like walks/strikeouts, so it’s tough to get complete info sometimes, but anything is better than nothing. The EXCEL file is up to date as of today, with the info I could find.