There it is. More analysis later, but for now, here is the video and profile of Savery.

Profile.

I also want to clear something up, because I know a lot of people will read snippets and panic. Savery did not have labrum surgery. He had minor surgery to remove a bone growth near his labrum, it was preventative surgery, he did not have a torn labrum, and I don’t even think he has a frayed labrum. I understand the panic that sets in when you hear that word, but I don’t think it’s anything to worry about. Rice pitchers have a bad reputation in the big leagues, but at some point, someone has to buck the trend.

By the way, the above is based on everything I’ve read on Savery, if it’s incorrect, I’ll get the full report later.

Today is the day we’ve been waiting for. The rumors continue to circulate. Will we take a Boras guy if he drops? Will we go above slot at 19? Will it be a bat or an arm? So many questions, so few answers at this point, but that’s what makes this so exciting. I’ll post the complete draft order for the first round and the supplemental round, and I’ll update it as the picks come off the board. If you’ve got a rumor, or just any thought you’d like to share, put it here, we’ll use this post to discuss all of today’s action. Here is a recap of all of the pre-draft writings, and here is today’s draft order:

01. Tampa Bay –
02. Kansas City –
03. Chicago Cubs –
04. Pittsburgh –
05. Baltimore –
06. Washington –
07. Milwaukee –
08. Colorado –
09. Arizona –
10. San Francisco –
11. Seattle  –
12. Florida –
13. Cleveland –
14. Atlanta –
15. Cincinnati –
16. Toronto-
17. Texas –
18. St Louis –
19. Philadelphia –
20. Los Angeles Dodgers –
21. Toronto –
22. San Francisco –
23. San Diego –
24. Texas –
25. Chicago White Sox –
26. Oakland –
27. Detroit –
28. Minnesota –
29. San Francisco –
30. New York Yankees –

31. Washington –
32. San Francisco –
33. Atlanta –
34. Cincinnati –
35. Texas –
36. St Louis –
37. Philadelphia –

I’ll admit, it’s 11:20 PM Eastern, and I’m really giddy about tomorrow’s draft. That said, I wanted to do a roundup of all the mock drafts in the last day or so, and put together the collection of players who have been linked to us in the last few days. Study them one last time, then we’ll hold our breath and see what happens. The first 6 picks of the draft will probably directly impact who we take at 19. So, here are the guys we’ve been linked to over the last week or so. If I’ve forgotten anyone, let me know.

Phillipe Amount, RHP (Ecole Du Versant, Gatineau, Quebec)

Julio Borbon, OF (Tennessee)

Madison Bumgarner, LHP (South Caldwell H.S., Hudson, NC)

Michael Burgess, OF (Hillsborough High School, Florida)

Michael Main, RHP/OF (DeLand HS, DeLand, Fla)

Devin Mesoraco, C (Punxsatawney HS, Pa)

Chris Withrow, RHP (Midland Christian HS, Midland, Texas) (Scroll Down for video)

Jason Heyward, OF (Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga)

Also, how about this for a last minute rumor…the D-Rays are considering taking Matt Wieters over David Price. If that happens, I might be more surprised than if the Phillies take Porcello.

At this point, you probably just want the Phillies to pick so you can stop thinking about it, right? Well, here’s Kevin’s latest guess. I’m assuming this is his last mock, but of course, lots can change tomorrow. Blurbs for a few guys in here as well

01. Tampa Bay – David Price
02. Kansas City – Josh Vitters
03. Chicago Cubs – Jarrod Parker
04. Pittsburgh – Devin Mesoraco

The Pirates would like to take Wieters here, but a request submitted to ownership to spend big money was quickly denied. That had the team turning to college pitching, with Detwiler their number one target. Unfortunately, the Pirates have been taking college pitchers in the first round for years, with each one requiring surgery and making the Pirates feel like they are stuck in the movie Groundhog Day. Which brings us to Devin Mesoraco. The catcher from Punxsutawney is the fastest rising player in the draft, thanks to outstanding private workouts, including one in front of Pittsburgh decision makers on Sunday in which he sprayed balls all over the field hitting with a wood bat. His combination of offensive and defensive skills rank with anyone around at this point and the local product angle makes for some much-needed good PR for a team that desperately needs it.

05. Baltimore – Ross Detwiler
06. Washington – Matt Wieters

Are the Nats making a big splash, as many have rumored? Right now, the answer looks like yes. Washington has money to spend, and they’ve made no secret of their desire to invest heavily in their scouting and player development system. They’ll have their choice of Boras’ two top clients in Porcello and Wieters, but with pressure to improve the big league team as soon as possible, they’ll opt for Wieters, the powerful switch-hitting catcher who could move through the minors quickly. Early indications are that Wieters will require a deal similar to the one that the Rangers gave to fellow Boras client Mark Teixeira six years ago, which means a big league deal approaching $10 million. Washington is ready to pony up.

07. Milwaukee – Mike Moustakas
08. Colorado – Matt Dominguez
09. Arizona – Daniel Moskos
10. San Francisco – Casey Weathers
11. Seattle – Nick Schmidt
12. Florida – Jason Heyward
13. Cleveland – Blake Beaven
14. Atlanta – Josh Smoker
15. Cincinnati – Phillippe Amount
16. Toronto – JP Arencibia

Looking for a quick and easy sign while also looking to address an organizational need, Toronto is reportedly all over college catcher J.P. Arencibia with one of their two first-round picks. Arencibia went into the spring as a possible top ten pick, but a nagging back injury kept him from playing at his best. If he can get healthy, he’s a solid pick here, and the team is suddenly worried that he won’t be around at 21.

17. Texas – Matt Harvey

The Rangers have a pair of first-round picks, and seemingly no budget concerns with the first of the duo. They have a positive relationship with Boras, and have been on Matt Harvey all year. Harvey entered the year as the second-best high school pitcher in the draft, but his stock dropped a bit due to inconsistent performances. Texas is still trying to gage his signability, and if it’s considered even halfway reasonable, they feel the power righty would be a steal this low.

18. St Louis – Julio Borbon (please let this be true)
19. Philadelphia – Michael Main

The Phillies love athletes with high ceilings, and conveniently enough, there will be a couple of options for them at this stage. Tampa-area high school outfielder Michael Burgess fits the bill, but he might be too raw for even Philadelphia’s taste, and there should still be some high-ceiling pitchers to choose from. In that case, Florida high school star Michael Main makes sense for Philly, as he’s a supreme physical specimen, with second- to third-round talent as a center fielder, although they’ll put him on the mound.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – Madison Bumgarner
21. Toronto – James Simmons
22. San Francisco – Beau Mills
23. San Diego – Joe Savery
24. Texas – Kevin Ahrens
25. Chicago Whitesox – Tim Alderson
26. Oakland – Aaron Poreda
27. Detroit – Rick Porcello

The Tigers are laying in wait, seeing which talent falls in their lap because of signability concerns. It worked last year with Andrew Miller at number six overall, and will work again this year. Porcello is the perfect fit here, and an absolute steal this low. Scouting director David Chadd loves tall pitchers who throw hard, and could be willing to open the checkbook for a talent like Porcello.

28. Minnesota – Will Middlebrooks
29. San Francisco – Todd Frazier
30. New York Yankees – Matt LaPorta

————–

Now, read pick #27, especially the last line, and remember how good it is to be a Phillies fan

We’ve been talking about it a lot for the past couple weeks, but the day is almost here. Tomorrow, the draft will begin at 2:30 on ESPN2, and will last till around 8:30, which will probably cover 5-6 rounds worth of picks. The Phillies have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds, so they have a good shot to add some high ceiling talent to a weak system, generally speaking. I’ll probably just write one main post tomorrow, like this one, and then just update the post with the first round selections and give my thoughts in the comments section. So, settle in tomorrow, enjoy the picks, and share your opinions. Some things on my mind as we get ready….
Continue reading The 2007 draft…one day away →

One more draft update for today. Some interesting movement on the draft tracker. The () represents where the player was on the last version, bolding is my own emphasis.

01. David Price (01)
02. Matt Wieters (03)
03. Rick Porcello (02)
04. Mike Moustakas (04)
05. Josh Vitters (05)
06. Jarrod Parker (09)
07. Jason Heyward (06)
08. Ross Detwiler (07)
09. Daniel Moskos (08)
10. Beau Mills (10)
11. Blake Beaven (11)
12. Madison Bumgarner (12)
13. Matt Dominguez (13)
14. Devin Mesoraco (16)
15. Matt Harvey (14)
16. Julio Borbon (15)
17. Michael Main (17)
18. Casey Weathers (18)
19. Phillippe Amount (19)
20. Josh Smoker (20)
21. Matt LaPorta (21)
22. Kevin Ahrens (22)
23. Nick Schmidt (23)
24. Pete Kozma (26)
25. Todd Frazier (24)
26. JP Arencibia (25)
27. Will Middlebrooks (NR)
28. James Simmons (30)
29. Andrew Brackman (28)
30. Brett Cecil (NR)

Out of the Top 30

Jack McGeary (27)

Some interesting stuff here. Porcello could very well go from the projected #2 slot in the draft out of the first round. If he wants a $10 million dollar deal, I find it hard to believe a team is going to give it to him, unless it’s Boston or the Yankees. If we end up with the 19th best talent, we’d end up with Amount, a guy the Phillies have been connected to. Amount has HUGE upside, literally and figuratively, as he’s already 6’7, 225 lbs. He’s going to need some work, but his ceiling is a true #1 starter. Will Middlebrooks, a guy I highlighted last week as a possible guy to look at in the compensation round, now might sneak into the back of the first round, and Brett Cecil is popping up on the radar again as a potential first round pick.

After watching Jarrod Parker’s scouting video a few times, if you could sign him for half the money Porcello wants, I’d do it in a heartbeat. I love his mechanics and his arm. For those excited about the possibility of a Boras guy like Porcello or Wieters falling to the Phillies and us getting lucky, you can put those hopes to bed, as the ownership has mandated not paying over slot. Harvey was once in the same group as those two, but at this point, he might be more affordable and a viable option. We’ll see.

The hits just keeping coming. It’s like being a kid at Christmas, and every 2 hours, you get a new toy. Goldstein has his list of the top 50 talents in this year’s draft, ranked on pure talent, not signability, and based more on projections as a pro. Here is the list, you probably need a subscription to read the full thing, but you should have a subscription to BP anyway 😉

Some highlights..

Continue reading Kevin Goldstein’s Top 50 draft talents →

JE posted this in the comments section of another post, thought it was worth it’s own slot. This looks MUCH better for the Phillies, and it’s quite interesting in some other spots.

1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
6. Washington Nationals: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
8. Colorado Rockies: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, CF, University of Tennessee
13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
14. Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
16. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
17. Texas Rangers: Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (Conn.)
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
19. Philadelphia Phillies: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
24. Texas Rangers: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
26. Oakland A’s: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
28. Minnesota Twins: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
30. New York Yankees: Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS (Miss.)

While I clearly would love Mesoraco at 19, some of the picks above us don’t make an awful lot of sense. The rumors are that Porcello is asking for 10 million dollars in a total package to sign….even with a new regime in KC, I don’t see that happening. If they pass, they’ll likely take Ross Detwiler. At #3, Vitters makes sense, and he’s been linked to Chicago constantly over the last month. I can’t see Milwaukee taking Parker, as they are deep in pitching but kind of shallow in impact bats. This seems like a good destination for Moustakas or Heyward. Nick Schmidt to Colorado seems like the overdraft of the round. Florida loves prep arms, but Borbon would represent an organizational need, so I guess I can see the logic there. 13-24 make sense to me, but I feel like Main is going to go higher than 24. I think Fairley is a big stretch at 30, and I don’t see Arrieta going 18th.

Interesting stuff, no doubt. This is the best case mock for the Phillies that I’ve seen to date.

The info over the next few days will come fast and furious, so I’ll just share it and we can discuss it. Two interesting notes from a chat with Alan Matthews and John Manuel at Baseball America today..

Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
Is there any chance Chris Withrow is selected in the first round? How does Withrow compare to fellow Texan Blake Beavan?
A:

Alan Matthews: I first saw Withrow in a showcase at the U. of Arkansas right after last year’s draft, and fell in love with his delivery and projection. He was not invited to attend the Area Code Games last summer in California, which was curious to me because I thought, in terms of projection, he deserved to be mentioned in the same breath with the more-heralded Beavan. He began to turn some of that projection into present stuff this season, and is one of the sleepers of this year’s draft. First round? Might be a stretch there, but certainly I would not be surprised to see him go as high as the Philles at 37 or Dodgers at 39.

I know that our own draft guru JE is a huge fan of Withrow, so this must make him happy to see the Phillies associated with him at 37. Sounds good to me. Here is Withrow’s profile again, still no video.

And then this..

Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
How would you rank Dominguez, Ahrens, Mesoraco, Noonan, and Kozma based purely on their bats?
A:

Alan Matthews: Strictly on the bat, it’s Dominguez, Mesoraco, Ahrens, Noonan and Kozma.

I still don’t think Dominguez will be there at 19, but if both he and Mesoraco are there, and we don’t take one of them, I’ll be ticked. Dominguez is a true 3B, potential gold glove defender, and his bat has improved this spring, according to another tidbit later in the chat. He seems like a lock at 19 if there.

I was really looking forward to Keith’s take on the first round, he seems very informed on the amateur side of the game and probably has a wealth of connections from his prior job. Law’s first round looks a bit different from many of the other mocks I’ve seen, but his logic makes sense on many of the picks. His pick for the Phillies wouldn’t surprise me, but it sure would disappoint me, then again, we’re Phillies fans, disappointment is all part of the game, right? Anyway, here goes…

Continue reading Keith Law mock draft →