The 2007 draft…one day away

We’ve been talking about it a lot for the past couple weeks, but the day is almost here. Tomorrow, the draft will begin at 2:30 on ESPN2, and will last till around 8:30, which will probably cover 5-6 rounds worth of picks. The Phillies have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds, so they have a good shot to add some high ceiling talent to a weak system, generally speaking. I’ll probably just write one main post tomorrow, like this one, and then just update the post with the first round selections and give my thoughts in the comments section. So, settle in tomorrow, enjoy the picks, and share your opinions. Some things on my mind as we get ready….

One of the most interesting storylines, to me at least, is the impact the Scott Boras clients will have on this draft. As you know, with the new collective bargaining agreement in place, teams have a firm August 15th deadline to sign their picks. If a player doesn’t sign by that date, he cannot attend a junior college or play independent ball and sign by the end of May like past seasons. This year, if a player is picked in the first 3 rounds and doesn’t sign, a team receives direct compensation in the 2008 draft. For example, if the Phillies take a player at 19 and can’t sign him, in next year’s draft, they will receive pick #19A, which will come between 19 and 20 in the draft. This is compensation, but how would fans react to this? The goal of this, of course, is to give teams more negotiating leverage. Will it accomplish that? I guess it depends. If you look at a guy like Matt Harvey, you have to wonder about his signability. Before the start of the 2007 high school season, he was considered the best prep pitcher in the country. He’s moved down behind Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker, and possibly others, at this point, but he’ll still likely demand a sizable bonus. He has leverage, in that he has a scholarship to UNC, and can just as well go to college for 3 years. Will he get more money in 3 years? That’s the risk, I suppose.

As a fan, would you be angry if your team took a player they knew was a signability risk and then didn’t sign him? For a team like the Phillies, who won’t go over slot by a large margin, I think it would be frustrating, knowing how weak our farm system is. Because of this factor, I think the “added leverage” won’t really help much at all. The top talents in the country have full scholarships to top flight baseball schools like USC, UNC, Texas and others, and junior college is still an option, though they can’t sign with their drafted team after August 15th. This is going to make for some really interesting storylines as the summer unfolds.

Finally, some interesting tidbits from Keith Law’s blog..

• Pittsburgh covets Josh Vitters, who’s likely to go to the Cubs at No. 3 unless they can spend for Matt Wieters. If Vitters isn’t there, the Pirates might drop down and take local catcher Devin Mesoraco. The Phillies like Mesoraco at 19, which is more commensurate with his ability.

Clearly Pittsburgh loves Vitters, as most teams do. What’s really interesting is that Chicago has been linked to Sean Doolittle from UVA. Jim Hendry was seen taking in a number of UVA games lately, and this doesn’t seem like a “smokescreen”, in that Doolittle isn’t seen by many as more than a 26-30 pick in the first round. Chicago had one of the reaches in the first round last year with Tyler Colvin, but that was in the middle of the first round, not the 3rd overall pick. Vitters is expected to sign for close to slot, I can’t see Chicago taking Doolittle.

• Seattle is leaning heavily towards Nick Schmidt at No. 11, with Casey Weathers as their alternative. Either way, they hope to bring whoever they take to the big leagues this year.

I really hope Schmidt is gone before 19, because that will mean a more talented guy has likely been pushed back to Philly’s spot, and eliminates the urge to reach and take a guy like Julio Borbon.

• Cleveland is considering some top high school arms, including Blake Beavan and Madison Bumgarner, as well as Moskos, a college arm, and Beau Mills, a power-hitting third baseman.

• The Braves are now hoping Bumgarner slips by the Marlins and is there at No. 14. Josh Smoker’s reduced velocity in his last few outings has caused them to reconsider taking him so high, although he might still end up in Atlanta in the sandwich round.

Both interesting points here. First, I have Dominguez pegged to Cleveland here, but if they do take an arm, and Toronto passes on Dominguez, he might be there for us at 19, should Mesoraco be taken by Pittsburgh. Smoker’s stock seems to be slipping, but I’d still love to have him at 37. I still think Bumgarner is overrated, largely because I can’t see plus secondary stuff from him with his arm slot and delivery.

The Reds, previously thought to be looking at Kevin Ahrens in the first, are more likely to target him in the supplemental round. First-round possibilities include Julio Borbon, Beavan and Moskos.

• The Rangers’ top options at No. 17 are now Beavan and Tim Alderson. Wherever Beavan goes, he’ll probably command top-10 money.

So now Ahrens might be available at 19? If Amount, Mesoraco and Dominguez are gone before us, I think Ahrens might be my pick. Also, it looks like Beaven won’t last till 19, which is probably okay with me, as I like him less and less every day.

• The Dodgers are high on Travis Mattair at No. 20, especially since most of the better arms will be gone by that pick. They’ve also looked heavily at Kansas high school catcher Derek Norris, and might pop him as high as No. 39.

Man……I really wanted Mattair at 37. The confirmed interest from LA at 20 affirms my belief in him as a prospect though, as Logan White is one of the absolute best in the business.

If you’ve got more tidbits from elsewhere, please post them.

15 thoughts on “The 2007 draft…one day away”

Great stuff. The Seattle stuff is very helpful as you pointed out. With the Reds now perhaps unconnected to Ahrens (and who knows whether that is accurate), I think he might be our guy at 19 (if Mesaraco is gone). I’d be pretty happy with either, I think. You are definitely right that the story of the day will be whether teams are willing to mix it up with Boras. Someone pointed out to me that the increased time between picks in the first round might allow teams to get on the phone with guys to gauge signability on the fly a little better.

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15 thoughts on “The 2007 draft…one day away”