Kevin Goldstein’s latest (and last?) mock draft

2007 Draft

At this point, you probably just want the Phillies to pick so you can stop thinking about it, right? Well, here’s Kevin’s latest guess. I’m assuming this is his last mock, but of course, lots can change tomorrow. Blurbs for a few guys in here as well

01. Tampa Bay – David Price
02. Kansas City – Josh Vitters
03. Chicago Cubs – Jarrod Parker
04. Pittsburgh – Devin Mesoraco

The Pirates would like to take Wieters here, but a request submitted to ownership to spend big money was quickly denied. That had the team turning to college pitching, with Detwiler their number one target. Unfortunately, the Pirates have been taking college pitchers in the first round for years, with each one requiring surgery and making the Pirates feel like they are stuck in the movie Groundhog Day. Which brings us to Devin Mesoraco. The catcher from Punxsutawney is the fastest rising player in the draft, thanks to outstanding private workouts, including one in front of Pittsburgh decision makers on Sunday in which he sprayed balls all over the field hitting with a wood bat. His combination of offensive and defensive skills rank with anyone around at this point and the local product angle makes for some much-needed good PR for a team that desperately needs it.

05. Baltimore – Ross Detwiler
06. Washington – Matt Wieters

Are the Nats making a big splash, as many have rumored? Right now, the answer looks like yes. Washington has money to spend, and they’ve made no secret of their desire to invest heavily in their scouting and player development system. They’ll have their choice of Boras’ two top clients in Porcello and Wieters, but with pressure to improve the big league team as soon as possible, they’ll opt for Wieters, the powerful switch-hitting catcher who could move through the minors quickly. Early indications are that Wieters will require a deal similar to the one that the Rangers gave to fellow Boras client Mark Teixeira six years ago, which means a big league deal approaching $10 million. Washington is ready to pony up.

07. Milwaukee – Mike Moustakas
08. Colorado – Matt Dominguez
09. Arizona – Daniel Moskos
10. San Francisco – Casey Weathers
11. Seattle – Nick Schmidt
12. Florida – Jason Heyward
13. Cleveland – Blake Beaven
14. Atlanta – Josh Smoker
15. Cincinnati – Phillippe Amount
16. Toronto – JP Arencibia

Looking for a quick and easy sign while also looking to address an organizational need, Toronto is reportedly all over college catcher J.P. Arencibia with one of their two first-round picks. Arencibia went into the spring as a possible top ten pick, but a nagging back injury kept him from playing at his best. If he can get healthy, he’s a solid pick here, and the team is suddenly worried that he won’t be around at 21.

17. Texas – Matt Harvey

The Rangers have a pair of first-round picks, and seemingly no budget concerns with the first of the duo. They have a positive relationship with Boras, and have been on Matt Harvey all year. Harvey entered the year as the second-best high school pitcher in the draft, but his stock dropped a bit due to inconsistent performances. Texas is still trying to gage his signability, and if it’s considered even halfway reasonable, they feel the power righty would be a steal this low.

18. St Louis – Julio Borbon (please let this be true)
19. Philadelphia – Michael Main

The Phillies love athletes with high ceilings, and conveniently enough, there will be a couple of options for them at this stage. Tampa-area high school outfielder Michael Burgess fits the bill, but he might be too raw for even Philadelphia’s taste, and there should still be some high-ceiling pitchers to choose from. In that case, Florida high school star Michael Main makes sense for Philly, as he’s a supreme physical specimen, with second- to third-round talent as a center fielder, although they’ll put him on the mound.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – Madison Bumgarner
21. Toronto – James Simmons
22. San Francisco – Beau Mills
23. San Diego – Joe Savery
24. Texas – Kevin Ahrens
25. Chicago Whitesox – Tim Alderson
26. Oakland – Aaron Poreda
27. Detroit – Rick Porcello

The Tigers are laying in wait, seeing which talent falls in their lap because of signability concerns. It worked last year with Andrew Miller at number six overall, and will work again this year. Porcello is the perfect fit here, and an absolute steal this low. Scouting director David Chadd loves tall pitchers who throw hard, and could be willing to open the checkbook for a talent like Porcello.

28. Minnesota – Will Middlebrooks
29. San Francisco – Todd Frazier
30. New York Yankees – Matt LaPorta

————–

Now, read pick #27, especially the last line, and remember how good it is to be a Phillies fan

22 thoughts on “Kevin Goldstein’s latest (and last?) mock draft”

  1. i would be pretty hacked if the cardinals passed on main to get borbon. great for the phils, not so much for us.

    Like

  2. Yet another prognostication that does NOT have the Reds taking Ahrens at 15. I would be very happy if he was our guy at 19. I think if the draft broke this way, we would take Ahrens over Main.

    Like

  3. All of this stuff reminds me why I love the draft so much. Tomorrow is one of the most exciting days of the year for me. I remember last year literally biting my nails waiting for the Phillies to pick, begging they’d take Drabek. When they actually did, I wanted to get up and skip around the office….but I didn’t.

    Like

  4. For what its worth, diamondguru, a respected poster at phillies.com believed to be a scout just posted that he has heard that the Phillies are prepared to step up and take a high profile player (with the inference that it is a Boras guy who could fall) at #19.

    Like

  6. As a life long phillies fan it disappoints me to know that if porcello should fall this far that we truly would not A) want to deal with Boras again and B) not finally open out checkbook and sign a guy that could become a true monster in the majors; not to mention he is in our own backyard being just across the delaware. They say they are committed to winning, however I have doubted it over the years and if this scenerio plays out it will just prove it again!

    Like

  9. If the draft falls as Goldstein lays it out, I want Porcello, Ahrens, Mills, Bumgarner, Main in that order.

    Like

  10. I really want to like Bumgarner, but I can’t get past his delivery.

    Where are we going to play Mills in 2 years when he’s major league ready?

    Honestly, if the Phillies fork over 9 million dollars for Rick Porcello….well…it will be one of the most surprising things I’ll have ever seen in my lifetime.

    Like

  11. With regard to Porcello, I’m not sure whether the Phillies would take him and (1) go above slot to sign him; or (2) hold firm against Boras and take the #20 pick in next year’s draft. Phillies may feel empowered because of the new rules. Maybe Arbuckle is looking for some payback though I’m not sure its much of a victory to watch Porcello go to UNC. In that regard, I think I’d almost feel better about selecting Ahrens at 19.

    Like

  13. The Porcello thing is so interesting. I mean, if you’re a scouting director, don’t you go to the GM and plead with him to go to the owner and ask for an extra 6M dollars for the first pick, with the promise to trim some money off of the 2nd and 3rd round picks? To me, there isn’t a Porcello in every draft, when you have a guy like that fall in your lap, you have to take him. Sadly, I don’t think our front office thinks that way.

    Unless we plan to really bust slot at 37 and 83, I think we need to take a guy we think we can sign.

    Like

  14. On Bumgarner, I like the age, size, and fastball velocity for a lefty. I have to believe Phillies can teach him a change.

    Like

  16. All I have to say on this matter is… there’s no way in hell I’m getting any sleep tonight. That and I’ll jump for joy if it’s Porcello and they really intend on signing him. I’d be excited if were Wieters, too, but just a little less so. Towards the end of the year he didn’t look very comfortable behind the plate. It could also be Moustakas, another Boras client, but I doubt it. I assume it’s somebody in guru’s area and that points to Porcello.

    Like

  17. I sure hope Kevin Goldstein is off his rocker- I havn’t liked any of his picks proposed for the phillies yet.
    I’m with you on Baumgarner- don’t like his delivery, it looks like forced power waiting to blow out his shoulder.
    As I mentiioned on philliesphans, and i’m sorry my magic 8-ball only has selections for the 1st, 5th, and 11th round- but it goes
    1) Matt Harvey
    5) Adrian Ortiz
    11)speedy DII second baseman Darin Mastroianni

    They all just smell like phillies draft picks.

    Like

  20. I’d love it if the phils rolled the dice and picked Porcello if he fell to them, but as i’ve said before, the last NJ prep player to suceed in the majors was….Al Leiter, and that was a long long time ago. So long it has to mean something.

    Like

  21. I would say 90% of these last minute rumors are the teams trying to get advisers/players to flinch on their bonus demands to get picked in the slot they want to get picked in. I still think Porcello goes #2 today.

    Like

  22. I would say 90% of these last minute rumors are writers using a hodge-podge of sources and non-sources to keep reader’s attention.

    Like

Comments are closed.