Let’s get to it..

(photo courtesy of PhilliesDraft.com)

Roth, Rob, RHP (age 18) Grade = C

The Phillies probably considered themselves lucky to sign Roth, their 19th round pick in 2006, because he seemed like the perfect candidate to head to college and improve his draft stock. His velocity jumped into the low 90’s in the spring, but possibly because he was in Idaho, he wasn’t heavily scouted. His debut was somewhat of a mixed bag. He only allowed 33 hits in 33.1 IP, but he allowed an eye popping 31 walks to only 24 strikeouts. Clearly, he’s very rough around the edges, but the Phillies like his arm. Because he’s only 6’1, 200lbs, it’s tough to say whether he’s going to grow a bunch more, but I suppose it is possible, especially since he just turned 18 in August.

2007 Outlook: Roth is, as you can see by his numbers, a project. He’ll likely repeat the GCL, and with a strong showing, could head to Williamsport in 2008. He gets a C now, but he could greatly improve or fall off a cliff, just like most really young, really raw prospects.

Drabek, Kyle, RHP (age 19) Grade = B-

Ah, the name everyone has been waiting for. I might be Drabek’s biggest fan, but his debut doesn’t warrant more than a B- grade, in fact, on straight numbers, he warrants much lower, but I had to make adjustments there. You all know about the 7.71 ERA, the 33 hits and 11 walks in 23 innings. However, you also know that he threw a TON of pitches in his senior season, that he signed a little later in the summer, and that he had a ton of baggage tossed on his back before he even played an inning of pro baseball. For all of the negatives we heard about him, in the last four months, it’s been mostly positives. He reportedly responded to instruction during the FIL, and there have been numerous cliche-filled articles written about his promising spring training and his experiences with Jamie Moyer and others. I, personally, wasn’t worried about the off the field stuff, but others were. If he truly has put that stuff behind him, or at least way onto the back burner, then his grade should greatly improve in 2007.

2007 Outlook: It was originally thought he’d start 2007 in extended spring training and then go to Williamsport, but it now looks like he’ll likely start at Lakewood in the rotation, barring some unforeseen disaster in the next month or so. If he is focused and ready to show everyone what he can do, he’s capable of a big season.

Correa, Heitor, RHP (age 17) Grade = B-

If you don’t recognize the name Heitor Correa, make a mental note. Looking at his 2006 GCL numbers, they don’t look inspiring; 23 IP, 7.83 ERA, 35 H, 7 BB, 14 K. But, when you add the qualifier “turned 17 on August 25th”, it makes a bit more sense. Correa put up most of those numbers at age 16, a pretty remarkable thing really. Correa was signed as an amateur free agent out of Brazil and was brought to the GCL to work with pitching coach Carlos Arroyo. At 16, he’s already 6’3, 200lbs, and has room to grow a bit more. And here’s the best part, he can already hit 91-92 mph, though not consistently. The Phillies love his intelligence (trilingual) and arm, and think he could be something special. He’ll repeat the GCL at age 17, and I have a feeling all of his peripheral numbers will look better at this time next season.

2007 Outlook: Caution is the optimum word here. Correa is the equivalent of a high school junior, so there is no reason to rush him or pile a ton of innings on him. He’ll likely get about 40 innings in this season on a tight pitch count every time out. His secondary stuff is non-existent at this point, but the raw tools are there.

Another snowy Monday morning, but baseball will be here before you know it. We’re winding down the grades here, just a few more to go. Once I finish, I’m going to do some possible grade revisions, as well as go back and cover anyone I may have missed. So again, if you’ve been reading, or if you haven’t, check out all the prospect grades and let me know who I may have passed over.

Freeman, Jarrod, RHP (age 19) Grade = B

Freeman, the Phillies 11th round pick in June, had a very impressive display, and is one of those guys I’m really excited to watch in 2007. Equipped with a near perfect projectable pitching frame (say that 5 times fast), he’s already 6’3, 195 lbs and just turned 19 in November. As with most young pitchers, he’s much more projection and speculation than substance, but for his debut, he pitched very well. In 45.1 IP in the GCL, he posted a 3.38 ERA, allowing 47 hits and only 5 walks to his 37 strikeouts. His fastball was registering in the low 90’s, and he also features a good curveball and an advanced changeup, considering his age.

2007 Outlook: Because he didn’t pitch in a baseball hotbed (Utah), and because he is only 19 and still growing, the Phillies will probably be cautious with him, keeping him in extended spring training and then sending him for a repeat of the GCL or possibly to short season Williamsport.

Olson, Matt, RHP (age 20) Grade = B-

Olson, in his repeat of the GCL, showed an improvement in his already solid command, and also allowed fewer hits per 9, despite posting a higher ERA than in his 2005 debut. A 13th round draft pick in 2005, he showed solid progress this season, despite seeing his K/9 rate dip a bit from it’s already low 5.93 in 2005 to 4.57 in 2006. However, this isn’t uncommon for raw high school kids learning how to pitch as opposed to just throwing. Olson has a large 6’4, 200lb frame, and could add a bit more velocity as he continues to grow. His control is good, his hit rate dropped, but he needs to start setting up hitters and finishing them off, but that will probably come with him improving his secondary stuff and developing his curve into a true out pitch.

2007 Outlook: Olson is still learning how to pitch as opposed to throw. His fastball already sits in the low 90’s and could actually improve as he continues to add muscle to his frame. He may eventually become a reliever full time, and his power arsenal would certainly fit, but the Phillies will probably resist that temptation until his secondary pitches prove they can’t develop. After two seasons in the GCL, he’ll probably start the season in Williamsport.

More of the Jamie Moyer-Kyle Drabek relationship and some other time honored cliches in this piece, and then another nice article about Joe Bisenius and his chance at making the big league bullpen.

Also, I missed this one a few days ago, but the Phillies signed 16 year old Australian outfielder Angus Roeger. I have no idea what kind of player he’ll be, that article is somewhat vague, but the Phillies apparently like his bat. He’s 16, so we’ll check back in a few years.

We’re nearing the end of the line.

Mitchell, Derrick, SS (age 20) Grade = C-

Mitchell, the Phillies 23rd round pick in 2005, failed to impress in his repeat of the GCL in 2006. Drafted at age 18, he needed to be cut some slack because of his youth and rawness, but in 2006 he showed little sign of improvement, posting a .610 OPS, compared to his .581 OPS in 2005. He drew a few more walk and knocked a few more extra base hits, but for a kid repeating the lowest league in pro baseball, he really should have done a bit better. Because he just turned 20 in January, we shouldn’t give up on him just yet, but we also shouldn’t expect much of anything going forward. He’ll probably head to Williamsport, but if he doesn’t make drastic improvements, he’ll fall off the prospect radar. He has great athleticism, but he’s going to need to translate that to tangible baseball skills on the field.

2007 Outlook: My guess is, he’ll get his looks at SS at Williamsport, but if his past record is an indication, we shouldn’t expect much. The Phillies felt that he really hadn’t started growing into his body yet, which could be seen as a reason he’s been lagging a bit. If he puts things together, it could happen quickly, or it might not happen at all.

Warren, TJ, OF (age 18) Grade = C

Warren represents another notch in the Phillies belt in terms of luring toolsy, potential high impact guys away from college out of high school. Warren, who played most of his 2006 GCL campaign at age 17, is already a freak of an athlete, measuring in at 6’4, 200lbs, and the Phillies feel he has more room to fill out as he grows and matures. He struggled mightily in his debut, posting a lowly .532 OPS, but is considered a major product, and will probably spend 2007 and 2008 in short season ball to try and adjust to the pro game. He’s a superior athlete with the potential for bigtime power as well as 20 stolen base potential.

2007 Outlook: Warren is likely to repeat the GCL this season. He will probably need at least two seasons in the GCL/Williamsport before he’s ready for Lakewood. But because he is only 18 now and will not turn 19 till the end of August, he has plenty of time to get things figured out. Warren is certainly in the extremely high risk/very high ceiling category in terms of prospects.

Sanchez, Jesus, C (age 19) Grade = B

Sanchez, acquired in the Bobby Abreu trade, might turn out to be the best player we received in the deal when all is said and done. Signed as an amateur free agent by the Yankees in 2004, 2006 was his first year in the US, and he held his own, all things considered. He logged a combined .634 OPS with the Yankees and Phillies, which doesn’t seem overly impressive, but you have to consider the adjustment period needed for a guy playing his first season in a new country, couple that in with him being traded, and it’s logical to assume anyone could have struggled in those conditions. Despite his low OPS, he was rated the 14th best prospect in the GCL by Baseball America, and was lauded as being the best defensive catcher in the league. He has a cannon arm, and is still working on the nuances of the position.

2007 Outlook: Based on nothing scientific, I have a good feeling about Sanchez. He will surely spend 2007 in short season ball, either at the GCL level or at Williamsport. With a solid year, depending who the Phillies take in the draft, he could be starting at Lakewood in 2008. Defensively, he’s probably the most promising prospect in the entire organization.

Before we crank out a few more grades today, head over to minorleaguebaseball.com and check out the interview with Steve Noworyta, Phillies Minor Leagues Director, as he talks about some Phillies pitching prospects and CJ Henry moving from SS to 3B. The interview is located at the top left hand side of the page. Now, onto the grades.

McDonald, Darin, OF (age 19) Grade = C

McDonald, the Phillies 7th round pick in 2006, was probably seen as a somewhat fortunate sign for the Phillies, as he had signed to play for Yavapai College to play baseball, and he had a football scholarship to Idaho State. Nevertheless, he chose baseball, and he gives the Phillies another high ceiling athlete to go along with the nice crop drafted in 2006. He’s already 6’3, 195 lbs, so he has the frame of a guy who could add quite a bit of muscle, and who is already very athletic. His debut in the GCL wasn’t eye opening, he posted only a .651 OPS in 128 AB over a 31 game span, however, for a raw player experiencing his first taste of pro ball at 18, not the end of the world. He gets a C because his sample size is small, and because he is a high school player, you can’t expect every guy like him to put up D’Arby Myers or Adrian Cardenas numbers. A C is probably just about right.

2007 Outlook: The Phillies will be cautious with him, he’ll probably end up either repeating the GCL or going to Williamsport this season, and if he improves, will get a full season assignment in 2008. He has the physical frame to be an even better athlete than he already is, and he could develop plus power. The key, like all raw athletes, will be whether he develops the tools like plate discipline and proper route running needed to be a successful outfielder/big leaguer.

Durant, Michael, 1B (age 20) Grade = C-

Durant, a fourth round pick in 2005, has drawn plenty of watchful eyes since being drafted, namely for his large power potential, but he’s failed to live up to the expectations so far. Durant’s .666 OPS in his 2005 debut was lackluster, and injuries pretty much wiped out his 2006, allowing him only 31 AB’s, in which he posted a miserable .623 OPS again back in the GCL. It’s tough to really kill him on his 2006, since he wasn’t healthy, but he’ll be in short season ball for a third season, and at some point, he needs to show something in order for us to consider him an actual prospect. He just turned 20 in January, so he’s got time on his side, but this will be his third pro season, he needs to remain healthy as well as put up some big numbers. Numbers-wise, he probably deserves lower than a C-, but he still has potential, and because of his 2006 injuries, I cut him some slack.

2007 Outlook: I can’t see him going anywhere other than Williamsport in 2007. Charlie Yarbrough will more than likely play some 1B at Lakewood, I just don’t see any way Durant gets skipped over short season unless he absolutely destroys the ball in minor league camp before the season opens. He still has a ton of raw power, but he needs to remain healthy so we can see if any of his skills will translate onto the field.

Brown, Dominic, OF (age 19) Grade = C-

Brown signing, much like McDonald, has to be seen as somewhat of a coup for the Phillies, as he was ticketed to the University of Miami on a football scholarship, but instead signed with the Phillies. Brown was an outstanding pitcher in high school, posting a 1.09 ERA in 45 IP his senior year, but he was just as good with the bat, hitting .455 with an .818 slugging % as well. The Phillies chose to keep Brown in the outfield, and the results were….shall we say…not good. He posted a miserable .557 OPS in 117 AB at the GCL level, including a .214 BA and .265 slugging %. Really, nothing went right for him, except for his 13 stolen bases in 16 tries. I don’t know if the Phillies plan on letting him try to pitch or not, but it might not be a bad idea. If he remains in the outfield, he’s an obvious right field candidate because of his solid arm, but if he can’t hit, he won’t last long in pro baseball. I won’t give him below a C- simply because we only have 117 AB’s to judge him on, but don’t hold your breath right now.

2007 Outlook: Hard to say. At this point, he’ll probably repeat the GCL, or possibly go to Williamsport, but I think it’s probably the former. You’d think if he struggles again in 2007, the Phillies might consider letting him pick up pitching again. Because he just turned 19, he obviously still has time, so we’ll see what path the Phillies take with him.

Here is a nice article about Kyle Drabek’s time sent at Spring Training so far, including his talks with Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers. Normally pieces like this are just filled with cliche, and you’d just cast them aside, but because of the “maturity issues” that have surrounded Drabek long before he was drafted by the Phillies, it’s nice to read nonetheless.

The Courier Post ran an article a few days back about Joe Bisenius and him wearing the #67 in camp. Joe admits it’s gonna be tough to win a bullpen job in Spring Training, but he seems to have the right attitude.

We’re almost finished at Batavia, which means only the GCL guys left to go, and then the wrap up.

Carpenter, Andrew, RHP (age 21) Grade = B

Carpenter, the Phillies 2nd round pick in the 2006 draft, is really impossible to grade because he threw only 14.2 innings in his debut. Due to his heavy college workload, the Phillies, as they many times do, decided to rest Carpenter after signing him, as he only emerged near the end of August to make a few brief appearances at the GCL level, then three starts at Batavia. His numbers were good, 14.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 H, 5 BB, 12 K, but they don’t tell us a whole lot. The book on Carpenter, upon being drafted, was “solid, not spectacular”, and many were a bit puzzled by the Phillies decision to take a somewhat low ceiling college pitcher so early. However, maybe some are just slighting him a bit. He features a low 90’s fastball, a slider, a splitter and a changeup, and all of his pitches figure to be at least average, maybe a tick above. Finding a starter with four good pitches, with good command, isn’t always the easiest of tasks. But because he lacks the one dominant pitch, his ceiling is already being set at 4th starter. Whether or not that ends up being reality, picking a polished, reliable pitcher isn’t the worst thing the Phillies could have done, considering the uncertainty surrounding the Drabek pick.

2007 Outlook: Because he pitched at a good baseball school (Long Beach State) and because he is polished, he’ll probably jump right over Lakewood and start at Clearwater, giving the Phillies a real solid 1-2-3 in the Threshers rotation of Carrasco, Outman and Carpenter. While the rotations at both A level clubs are strong, the Reading rotation might be less dominant, so with a strong first half, he could find himself in Reading by the end of the year. He turns 22 in May, so he’ll be the correct age for his level, all things considered.

Cardenas, Adrian, SS/2B (age 19) Grade = A

If you’re reading this site, you know who Adrian Cardenas is. Baseball America’s 2006 High School Player of the Year carried over his phenomenal senior season in the GCL, posting an .826 OPS in 154 AB and excelling at pretty much every facet of the game. He hit .318, he drew 17 walks to only 26 K’s, he stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, and he logged 5 doubles, 4 triples and 2 home runs to round out his campaign. Cardenas is a great story, as his draft stock rose off the charts when people came to watch his high school teammate, Chris Marrero, who was taken by the Nationals in the first round. Cardenas was drafted as a SS and played the position at the GCL, but some think he lacks the range for the position, and is better suited for 2B. Because of his advanced hitting skills, he’s virtually a lock to open up at Lakewood, and will be moved to 2B to play next to Jason Donald. 2007 represents his age 19 season, so a solid year at Lakewood will raise his already high prospect status. With Chase Utley now signed for 7 years, Cardenas could eventually move to 3B or a corner OF spot, but if he continues to hit, his bat will carry him at any position.

2007 Outlook: Considering tools and every offensive metric, Cardenas might be the most complete prospect in our system. The only area he’s “lacking” is in raw speed, but he showed enough ability to steal 13 bases and only get caught 3 times. Whether that translates or not at higher levels is left to be seen. He’s the type of talent that could move quick, despite being only 19 years old.

Myers, D’Arby, OF (age 18) Grade = A

Many of you have already read my piece on D’Arby Myers (it’s gotten the most hits of any piece I’ve written), so I don’t have to express to you how high I am on this kid. At age 18, he’s right behind Adrian Cardenas in terms of our best position player prospects. Thought of as a really raw athlete who needed to learn how to hit, D’Arby blew the doors off the place after a slow start, finishing with a .783 OPS, including a .313 average and 10 extra base hits. He also stole 11 bases in 15 attempts and played a good center field, by all accounts. The Phillies initially thought of Myers as a project, almost like a Greg Golson type, but in 128 AB, he’s already proven himself more of a “baseball player” than Golson has in 2.5 seasons. Originally slated to spend 2007 in short season ball, it now looks like Myers will force his way onto the Lakewood team and into the every day center field role. If he adjusts well and puts up a solid season, he’ll shoot up every prospect list at this time next year, just like the Yankees’ Jose Tabata did after his impressive 2005 in the GCL and his good performance in the SAL at age 18 in 2006.

2007 Outlook: The sky is the limit for Myers. He’s shown more than expected in every facet of the game thus far. He has the projectable raw power to hit 18-20 HR per season, he has the speed to leg out 40+ doubles and 10+ triples, the pure hitting skills to post a .300+ batting average, he could steal 30+ bags, and once he learns the nuances of route running, could be a plus defender in center field. Really, he has the entire package. The only area that he’s going to need to greatly improve is his batting eye, and that will come with experience.

The Saturday edition.

Walls, Sam, RHP (age 23) Grade= C+

Walls, the Phillies 10th round pick out of NC State, is a pretty interesting guy. A redshirt junior, he could have returned to NC State for his senior season, but because of his numerous injuries and setbacks in his college career, he decided to start his pro career at the age of 22, turning 23 in October. At NC State, he pitched at the back end of ball games, and often times pitched multiple innings, including 17 of his 23 appearances in 2006. Because of his litany of injuries, his stock fell a bit, allowing him to drop to the Phillies in the 10th round. In what became a trend in the 2006 draft, the Phillies were willing to take risks on guys with some injury risk in order to possibly maximize their return. Walls had a nice debut at Batavia, posting a 2.67 ERA in 30 IP, allowing 32 hits and 6 walks to his 26 strikeouts. He obviously got hit around a bit, but only allowed 5 2B and 1 HR. Lefties and righties had a nearly identical OPS against him, .650 and .651, and he generated an astounding 52 groundballs to only 14 flyballs. His K/9 rate was about average, his H/9 below average, and his BB/9 well above average, which means he’d probably be a B- prospect, but because he was old for the league and he is a reliever, his grade dropped a bit.

2007 Outlook: My guess is that he gets some late inning looks at Lakewood, and if he pitches well, will move to Clearwater pretty quickly, and could end the season in Reading. Because he is older, he should be able to move quicker, but since he’s already destined for a bullpen role, there’s really no sense of urgency in his development.

(NO PICTURE)

Cruz, Reymond, RHP (age 23) Grade = B-

Cruz signed as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in March of 2004, and didn’t make his US debut until 2005. He pitched 9 games in the GCL, posting a 4.00 ERA in 45 IP, allowing 49 hits and 7 walks to his 43 strikeouts. In 2006, the Phillies moved him to the bullpen in Batavia, and he blew the doors off the place. In 36 IP, he posted a 1.25 ERA, allowing 19 hits and 9 walks compared to his 42 strikeouts. Opposing hitters hit only .150 against him, posting a combined .435 OPS, with only 2 extra base hits in 36 IP. He also induced 43 groundballs to only 24 flyballs. Because he was older than his competition, you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt, but because it was only his second season in the US, you have to cut him an equal amount of slack. His control is impeccable, and he pretty much shut down the opposition completely in 2006.

2007 Outlook: Because 2007 is his age 23 season, he should be moving quickly if he’s to become a more household name and future big league contributor. He’ll likely start in Lakewood and move quickly. Guys with great control and the ability to miss bats are quality commodities.

Byrd, Darren, RHP (age 20) Grade = B–

Byrd, an 18th round pick in 2005, is looking like a quality mid round pick by the Phillies staff. In his debut, he was solid, posting a 2.66 ERA in 44 IP. He proved in 2006 that it was no fluke. Starting back at the GCL level, he posted a solid 3.22 ERA in 36.1 IP, allowing 33 hits and 15 walks to go with his 27 K, not outstanding, but workable. However, in his 15 innings at Batavia, he held his own, allowing 10 hits and 11 walks to go with 14 strikeouts. Obviously, his number 1 enemy right now is control, and if he’s going to be successful, he’ll need to really work on his walk rate, but he was only 19, and to see his hit rate drop and K rate rise when promoted, even if it was only 15 innings, is somewhat promising. Byrd is still more projection than anything, as his 6’3/170 lb frame lends itself to increased velocity in the future. As of now, he throws in the high 80’s, but gets a lot of sink on his fastball, which led to a nice 79:43 GB to FB ratio in 2006. He’s still a project, but for an 18th round pick, he’s on the right track. He was ticketed as a draft and follow guy after 2005, but signed almost immediately, and the Phillies have been impressed with his attitude and approach.

2007 Outlook: The Phillies will probably play it safe with him, starting him at Williamsport, and then possibly bumping him to Lakewood for a few starts at the end of the season. Since 2007 will only be his age 20 season, no need to hurry him along, especially as he continues to grow into his body and add to his fastball velocity.

The Hardball Times, one of the best baseball information sites out there, put out a piece ranking all 30 minor league systems in baseball. The Phillies system ends up at #10 overall, namely on the strength of our pitching, which was ranked 4th overall. Here is an excerpt, but be sure and check the link above for the full piece.

The Stats

To keep things simple, I used a single stat for every pitcher and hitter in the minors. OPS was a natural choice for hitters, and to keep the graphs (which we’ll get to a bit later) on the same scale, I used OPS against for pitchers. To enable comparisons of everyone from Low-A to Triple-A on the same scale, I used equivalent (MLE) OPS, which is adjusted for park, league and level.

I took into account only two other variables for each player: their playing time and their age. It’s foolish to compare a 21-year-old in the Florida State League to a 25-year-old in the International League, and, as you’ll see in a moment, my ranking approach reflects that.

I considered playing time mainly to differentiate relief pitchers from starters. A team with a bunch of great relief prospects doesn’t have as strong a system as a team with several good starting prospects. (You could argue that adjusting for playing time isn’t sufficient, especially since differences in OPS against will be more extreme for relievers.)

Rating Players

First, I found averages and distributions for every age throughout the minors. In other words, I could compare every player to the average production from his age group. I included all players with reasonable playing time between the ages of 19 and 27—younger than 19, there are only a few players at low-A or above in all of baseball, and older than 27, players don’t really count as prospects anymore. (You could set the age limit lower, of course. It doesn’t end up mattering very much.)

Then, for every player in the minors, I determined whether he was above average for his age group, and whether he was in the 90th percentile or higher for his age group. (I also determined whether he was in the 75th percentile or higher, which helps make the graphs more interesting, but doesn’t affect the rankings.)