I’ve gotten a few e-mails asking if we couldn’t have provided a better package for Santana than the Mets came up with. In short, no, but it’s not just the prospects. Santana has a no trade clause, and the only way he’ll waive his NTC is if the team trading for him gives him an extension, probably in the 6 years/$150M range. The Phillies, I don’t believe, would even consider paying any player that much, let alone a pitcher. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, so obviously he’ll help the Mets, but I don’t think it’s panic time yet. Our 1-13 position players stack up and surpass those of the Mets, while they have a pitching advantage. That means it’s going to be a tight race for the East, and Atlanta should be decent, but is a clear third in terms of up and down talent on the 25 man roster. So, onto the prospects..

Continue reading Could we have gotten Santana? →

From the new organizational report at BA, courtesy of Jim Salisbury

Mathieson, who was picked in the 17th round of the 2002 draft and made eight starts in the majors in 2006, had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September. The operation was a less serious follow-up to the Tommy John surgery that he had a year earlier.

Mathieson, who turns 24 on Feb. 27, will take part in the full pitching program in spring training but likely will open the season in the minors as he eases into competition. Though he has worked as a starter throughout his career, organization leaders have long believed his power arm could work well in relief. He pitched for Canada at the World Baseball Classic in 2006 and could be a sleeper to contribute out of the bullpen in 2008.

Drabek, a first-rounder in 2006 who was considered by some to have the best arm in that draft, was 5-1, 4.33 at low Class A Lakewood when he began having elbow trouble last May. He had Tommy John surgery in July, and according to farm director Steve Noworyta, “is coming along real well. He’s on schedule, if not a little ahead.”

Drabek is expected to spend most of the season rehabbing in Florida. The Phils would like to see him get on the mound for Rookie-level Gulf Coast League games in August, then be ready to go for instructional league following the 2008 season.

“Even though he’s losing a year, we think he’ll make up that time,” Noworyta said of the 20-year-old Drabek. “Sometimes guys don’t realize what they had until it’s taken away from them. His work ethic has been outstanding. We expect him to come back better than ever.”

Definitely good news on all fronts, though I still think Mathieson has starter potential, it’s a good idea to settle him into the majors as a reliever.

I’d like to add a few more player profiles this week. I can either start doing them in alphabetical order, or I can take requests. If you have a particular player you want to see done, let me know. You can find completed profiles by looking to the left side of the page under the player tags…guys with a profile have the small link under their name.

Bisenius is a guy I saw mentioned a bunch in a previous post asking which guys could contribute this year. As we all know, he had a terrible 2007 after a promising 2006. He had a few minor injuries, and his control abandoned him. He still has a hard fastball and slider, and if he can rebound, he could be a nice addition to the Phillies pen, instead of having to resort to re-treads like Antonio Alfonseca and Jose Mesa. Take a look at his key peripherals over the last 4 seasons

2004: 50.1 IP — 2.51 BB/9 — 6.83 K/9 — 0.90 HR/9
2005: 61.0 IP — 5.31 BB/9 — 8.26 K/9 — 0.74 HR/9 — 1.00 GB:FB
2006: 88.2 IP — 3.45 BB/9 — 10.25 K/9 — 0.61 HR/9 — 1.51 GB:FB
2007: 43.0 IP — 6.49 BB/9 — 7.95 K/9 — 1.05 HR/9 — 0.91 GB:FB

Was 2006 a fluke? When I did my Top 30, I looked at these numbers, and because of them I couldn’t justify including him in my list. The fact that he doesn’t get a good amount of ground balls is troubling. His HR rate has never been above average, even in 2006, and his best walk rate was almost 3.5 per 9, not mindblowing stuff from a reliever-exclusive pitching prospect. As I mentioned, he does have good fastball velocity, he does have a good hard slider, but does he have enough to be a valuable reliever? To me, he looks like a 6th inning guy, if he makes it. I’m hoping he does, because as I said, he’s much better than having to dig up old relievers past their sell by date, but I think I’m less optimistic now than I was at this time last year.

What do you think? Will he replicate or better his 2006? Will he struggle again?

Thanks to those who inquired about helping out with the site. I believe our team now includes

andyb; Andy will keep writing on the DSL/VSL prospects
bobev; Bob is our new Lakewood correspondent
clearwaterthreshersnews; Jeff returns as our Clearwater correspondent
bertmurr; Rob comes aboard as our Reading correspondent
gregg; Gregg remains on board and shifts his focus to the Iron Pigs
mikesbphuturephillies; Mike comes on as our dedicated transactions guru

Thanks again, and remember, be kind to our friendly volunteers.

I might still be looking for a Reading correspondant, still waiting to hear back on that one from an interested party, but I am also going to be searching for someone to help with transactions here. Basically, my plan is to create a transactions page at the top of the blog to go with the depth chart and 40 man roster page. Your only task will be to regularly check for transactions, whether it be promotions, releases, new signings, etc etc, and update the transaction log. You’ll be added to the blog as a contributor, but you won’t actually have to write a weekly report. If you would be interested in doing a transaction summary, whether it be once a week, or once a month, you can definitely write something up, but it won’t be required. So if you’re interested, send me an e-mail. Again, I would like this to be something you can keep up with daily, or almost daily, but it shouldn’t be that time consuming.

If you head to the top of the page and click the depth chart link, you’ll see all of the rankings. If you still strongly disagree with the placement on the list, you can leave a comment on the depth chart page and state your case, and maybe others will agree. I’m going to spend some time this week hopefully adding a few more player profiles and working on some other miscellaneous tasks for the site. Today’s question of the day; which Phillies prospect, if any, do you see making the 25 man roster out of spring training?

Baseball America always gives a scouting report online of a team’s 31st prospect, ie, the guy who just failed to make their annual prospect handbook. Ballestas, a RHP, is the Phillies choice this season

Freddy Ballestas, rhp, Phillies

Born: Oct. 4, 1986. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 180. Signed: Venezuela, 2004. Signed by: Sal Agostinelli.

A product of the Phillies’ Venezuelan academy, Ballestas has spent his first three pro seasons in his home country, posting the best numbers of his career in 2007. After working on his mechanics to have better overall balance over the rubber last offseason, he was the top pitcher in the Rookie-level Venezuelan Summer League. He led the VSL in ERA (1.26) and strikeouts (98 in 100 innings) while ranking second in wins (9-3). Ballestas’ top pitch is a 90-93 mph fastball that touches 94 and has plus late life. He improved the command of his heater last year, missing more bats as a result. He also has a slurvy breaking ball and good feel for a changeup. Though he wasn’t viewed as much more than a middle reliever when he signed, Ballestas could become more than that if he can hone his secondary pitches. Philadelphia will bring him to the United States in 2008 and he could land an assignment to low Class A if he performs well in spring training.

Sounds promising, especially if he’s bumped to Lakewood to start.

I hate to post this, because it seems like we’ve debated this to death, but I guess it’s worth a look. From a Jim Callis chat at BA yesterday

Mike (Lancaster, PA): Can Cardenas play third?

Jim Callis: Yeah, he should be able to.

Hmm. Most people generally think Cardenas doesn’t have the arm for 3B. It’s not a secret that the best athletes on high school teams normally play shortstop. Lots of guys get drafted as shortstops (like Cardenas) and then get moved off the position immediately in pro ball. The Reds drafted Todd Frazier as a shortstop out of Rutgers and immediately moved him to 3B. It’s a common practice. But the guys who get moved to 3B normally go there because they have strong arms. If they can’t make it at 3B because of poor hands or reactions, they usually end up in RF, again because of their arm. If the arm isn’t good enough, they go to LF, for obvious reasons. All the talk about Cardenas has been that he might end up in LF, which seems to indicate that the Phillies don’t think much of his arm. Or could it be that they thought 2B would be easier for him to adjust to while he was also adjusting to pro pitching for the first time? He held his own at Lakewood as a 19 year old, and will move to Clearwater at age 20. Did anyone see him at Instructs taking balls at 3B? Will the Phillies gamble and try him there at Clearwater? We have no other legit 3B prospects in High A that would be blocking him.

Jim Callis is far from the trumping voice on Phillies prospects, but this could be an interesting plotline to watch.