Category Archives: 01. Site Features

Phillies Top 11 Prospects, per BP

Top Prospect Lists

Kevin Goldstein at BP released his Top 11 Phillies prospects today. You can read the full article here. Here’s the scouting report on Carlos Carrasco

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Venezuela
2007 Stats: 2.84 ERA at High-A (69.2-49-22-53); 4.86 ERA at Double-A (70.1-65-46-49)

Year In Review: The pitcher who broke out in 2006 continued to get outs at High-A, but scuffled following a mid-season promotion to the Double-A Eastern League.
The Good: Carrasco’s low-90s fastball can touch 94 at times and has excellent movement. He throws it for strikes, and when he gets ahead in the count he makes batters look foolish with a plus-plus changeup that drops off the table as it spins towards hitters. His curveball is solid, and he mixes his pitches well. He doesn’t turn 21 until March, and his frame still offers some projection, as do his fluid mechanics.
The Bad: Carrasco’s control went backwards significantly at Double-A, as he got too fine with his location. He needs to trust his stuff more and be comfortable depending on his defense, as he’s not going to be a big-time strikeout pitcher. Some scouts see him as a bit of a tweener-–without the stuff to be a pure power pitcher, or the finesse to be a command/control specialist.
Fun Fact: During his 14 Double-A appearances, Carrasco had a 3.02 ERA at home, but a miserable 9.61 mark on the road.
Perfect World Projection: Opinions vary on Carrasco. Most believe he’ll at least be a good No. 3 starter, and some think he’ll be more than that.
Timetable: Youth is on Carrasco’s side, and he’ll begin 2008 with another shot at conquering Double-A.

Joe Savery was also a “4 star prospect”, coming in at #2. We then had a bunch of 3 star guys

03. Adrian Cardenas
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Travis d’Arnaud
07. Lou Marson
08. Jason Donald
09. Dominic Brown

and then two 2 star prospects

10. Drew Carpenter
11. Travis Mattair

With our “just missed” guys being Freddy Galvis, Greg Golson, and Julian Sampson. Our sleeper prospect was Tyler Mach. Someone alert Art D, he’ll be pumped. KG’s final summary

The Phillies system is not an especially strong one, but although the organization has never had a reputation for being especially strong in its scouting and player development, the roster currently has a home-grown ace in Hamels and three self-supplied MVP candidates in the lineup in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. That combination is one that few organizations can come anywhere close to claiming.

So, discuss. As I mentioned last week, Kevin has agreed to do another Q/A here, so I’ll be putting together a list of questions to send him. If you have a good one, post it in the comments here. Thanks.

EDIT

Since much of the article is premium content, I will just give the “future outlook” and 2008 starting destinations for each player

Savery:

Perfect World Projection: Savery’s ceiling is at least the same, if not a little higher than Carrasco’s, but he’s also further from it.
Timetable: Providing that Savery is healthy and throwing strikes, he could skip a level and begin his 2008 season in the High-A Florida State League rotation.

Cardenas:

Perfect World Projection: Ray Durham minus the speed?
Timetable: Cardenas was good in 2007, but not good enough to earn any kind of accelerated timetable. He’ll spend 2008 in the Florida State League.

Outman:

Perfect World Projection: A solid mid-rotation starer.
Timetable: Like Carrasco, Outman needs another shot at Double-A, and he’ll join the team’s top prospect in the Reading rotation.

Drabek:

Perfect World Projection: When he was drafted, he looked like he could be a No. 2 starter, but he’s further from that now than he was 18 months ago.
Timetable: Drabek’s recovery has gone as planned, and the Phillies hope he’ll be ready to return to action during the second half of the season.

d’Arnaud:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday big league catcher with plus defensive value and enough bat to hit sixth in a good lineup.
Timetable: D’Arnaud showed enough to be ready for a full-season league, so he’ll be the everyday catcher at Low-A Lakewood in 2008.

Marson:

Perfect World Projection: An average big-league catcher.
Timetable: Marson will play at Double-A in 2008, and he’s in an interesting situation, as the Phillies have some depth at catcher, with Jason Jaramillo ahead of him, and D’Arnaud coming up from behind.

Donald:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman, and even if that doesn’t work out, Donald should have value as a platoon/utility player.
Timetable: Donald has nothing left to prove at the lower levels of the system, and will probably begin the 2008 season at Double-A.

Brown:

Perfect World Projection: Brown’s ceiling is through the roof, but the gap between what he is and what he can be rivals that of any prospect in the system.
Timetable: Brown will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, beginning the year at Low-A Lakewood.

Carpenter:

Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Timetable: Carpenter might not have much of a ceiling, but he could be ready soon, as he’ll begin 2008 in a crowded rotation at Double-A Reading.

Mattair:

Perfect World Projection: Like Brown, Mattair brings a ton of potential to the table, but right now he’s eons away from being ready.
Timetable: Unless Mattair makes a dramatic step forward in spring training, he could be held back in extended spring training in preparation for an assignment to the New York-Penn League.

My Top 100 prospects

Other Stuff

Ah yes, my personal Top 100. As well as being an avid follower of the Phillies minor leaguers, I’ve always closely followed the systems of other teams. I find player development really interesting, as well as the draft process, and when you start following these guys in high school and college, it’s always natural to continue to follow them when they enter pro ball, even if it’s not for your favorite team. A few caveats, before I get to my list. I shouldn’t really have to outline this, but there will invariably be someone who flies off, if they happen to find my blog and they read about me ranking prospects in a certain order. I’m not a scout, I don’t profess to be a scout, and while I know a few people, my network pales in comparison to those at BP, BA, ESPN, and every other prospect authority in the business. My knowledge comes from reading what others have to say, discerning useful info from those reports, watching these prospects when I can, and looking at basic peripheral numbers. Every prospect list out there is going to contain guys that fall flat on their face, as well as guys placed higher than the “consensus opinion”, and some of those guys will go on to be stars. I generally don’t worry about where the group think position is on a player. There are some guys who are generally loved that I’m not as high on (Homer Bailey), and some guys that aren’t loved that aren’t love as much (Omar Poveda) that I really like. These lists are just guesses as to who will and who won’t make it at the next level, and above everything else, I think it’s a lot of fun. So now that I got the disclaimers out of the way…

Continue reading My Top 100 prospects →

PECOTA and Phillies prospects

Other Stuff

I’m sure most of you have heard the word “PECOTA” at some point when reading about baseball analysis and statistics. Basically, PECOTA was developed/created by Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus. It’s basically a really complex algorithm that analyzes players in a number of advanced metrics, and the power of the system is basically that it takes just about anyone that has ever played the game and puts their data along side the players it is comparing them to, and then tries to figure out which direction the current player’s career will go, based on what has happened to similar players in the past. The system is incredibly complex, and if you haven’t ever read up on it, I’d suggest reading the wikipedia entry here before you dig into this post. While PECOTA is useful for projecting major league statistics for the upcoming season, it’s also useful to get a snapshot of which prospects the system seems to like, and which prospects the system isn’t as high on.

Continue reading PECOTA and Phillies prospects →

Two profiles added

Other Stuff

I cranked out the Jason Donald profile page, as well as the Lou Marson profile page. Both are light on pictures, again if you have any pictures you’ve taken, or you are able to track down any photos I may not have posted, please just post links to them in the comments section under each player’s profile. I’m always looking for more video clips as well, and I haven’t found one for Marson just yet, but I’m still working on it. After taking the feedback into consideration today, I made a few more decisions, and I have a tentative agenda for next week.

Monday: PECOTA and our prospects
Tuesday: My Top 100 prospects
Wednesday: NL East farm system comparison
Thursday: Draft picks that might have been
Friday: undecided

Agenda

Other Stuff

I’d like to ramp up my efforts to complete more profile pages in the next few days, and hopefully have a page for every legit prospect by the time the minor league season starts. The 2008 predictions thing was a good idea, I thought, but as mentioned in the comments from yesterday, it just doesn’t seem like people care enough to participate, so maybe I’ll just figure out all of my projections for the rest of our prospects and post them all at once sometime before the season starts. I also got in touch with Kevin Goldstein at BP, his Phillies Top 10 hits the web on Monday, and he agreed to do another Q/A, so that will be interesting.

It seems interest in the blog is starting to wane. What would you like to see here that currently isn’t featured that would make this place more interesting to you? Or are you just feeling the “it’s almost spring training but not quite” blues right now?

Info on two foreign signings

Other Stuff

I was able to track down some info on the two guys we signed. Thanks to e-mailer Dave V, who speaks Czech, I was able to find out that infielder Jakub Sládek is a pretty solid athlete, and won “sportsman of the year” as a junior, and also spent time playing for a German team called Regensburg. His Czech team has a rudimentary website, with a link for English translation here….make sure you click the little British flag at the top for English. I was able to find limited stats. In 16 plate appearances, his line was .727/.813/1.091. So it appears he’s the Czech Barry Bonds. But seriously, it appears he is a good athlete, and he’s spent time training with quality teams. He’s only 17 (or 18), so he probably will stay in Europe for another year and finish his schooling before coming to the GCL. Here is an article on Van Steensel, posted here by andyb. He seems to have pitched well in Australia, and the article mentions a mid 80’s fastball, with the Phillies thinking his velocity will spike up as he fills out. He’ll remain in Australia for 2008 and then come to the GCL in 2009.

Thanks again to those who e-mailed and posted info here.

Phillies on Top 100 lists

Other Stuff

I just wanted to address this, since it’s been mentioned a number of times in comments on various posts. When I post an excerpt of an article from BA, from Kevin Goldstein, from Keith Law, or from any other source, you need to remember 2 things before you even read the article. This is one person’s opinion, or in the case of BA, one site’s opinion. That’s it. It’s an opinion. You take time to learn about who is giving the opinion, and then you figure out how much importance it has to you. Keith Law has scouting experience, he goes and sees almost every player he writes about, and in most cases, he’s been seeing them play in person since they were in high school. He doesn’t have a “bias”, and he doesn’t “hate the Phillies”. These sites are not out to get the Phillies, they have no incentive to downgrade or upgrade Carlos Carrasco’s outlook. They are providing opinions. I like to think I follow the minors closely, but I don’t get to see Josh Outman pitch 30 times a season, and even if I did, I don’t have the extensive scouting background of some of these other guys, and I don’t have baselines for comparison to compare a guy like Josh Outman to a guy like Jake McGee. What I try to do here is post as much information as I can find, try to get as many opinions as I can, and then try and maybe find guys who might be ready to break out, based on their peripheral numbers. I have my gut feelings on certain guys, some of whom will be complete busts, and some of whom will break out. Every player who invests time into following the minors feels the same.

Continue reading Phillies on Top 100 lists →

Keith Law’s Top 100

Top Prospect Lists

As many of you know, I’m a big fan of Keith’s work, and for those latecomers to the party, Keith did a Q/A on Phillies prospects for the site here a few months ago. Check it out here. He doesn’t pull any punches, he speaks clearly, and more importantly, he backs up his comments with explanations, and was even kind enough to answer questions in the comments section here. Keith has released his rankings of top prospects by position, top 5 prospects by team, and then tomorrow, his Top 100 in the minors, all of which can be found here on his ESPN blog. With 97.3% of ESPN’s site being “Insider content”, you won’t get much, but his coverage, especially come draft time, kind of makes it worthwhile. Unsurprisingly, no Phillies prospects ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. He’s not high on Cardenas at this point because he doesn’t really have a defensive home as of yet, and I’m sure Carrasco, Outman and Savery would be in the 10-20 range for RHP and LHP. His Top 5 for our team is Carrasco, Savery, Drabek, Outman and d’Arnaud.

Update: Keith ranks Carlos Carrasco #53

The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.

From his ESPN Chat

Danny(Philly): Hey Keith I know your not a big fan of Cardenas because of a lack of position. Was he still close to making the list?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:36 PM ET ) He wasn’t close, but he’s a guy I’m keeping an open mind on for 2008. If I see more with the bat and/or an improvement defensively, he’ll be on this list next year. Maybe he should have been, but I’m sticking with what I saw.

James (Roxboro, NC): Joe Savery and Kyle Drabek, simply not good enough for the top 100 or do injury history/concerns drop them?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:35 PM ET ) Drabek is still out with TJ, and I think I only had two guys on my list in that situation, both in the 90s.

Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100

Savery, Joe, Top Prospect Lists

Another friend of the blog, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus put out his Top 100 prospects list today. Carlos Carrasco checked in at #68, while Joe Savery slipped in at #96. You can check out the full list here, and you can ask Goldstein a question in his BP chat today at 1PM eastern.

JM (MD): Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn’t it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?

Kevin Goldstein: It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn’t miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don’t get me wrong — But I think he’s a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world.

Justin (Brno (Czech Republic)): How good will Adrian Cardenas be in the big leagues? Do you think his power will develop into a middle of the order type of bat?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’ll be an above-average offensive second baseman, but I don’t see his power ceiling going past the 15-20 home runs a year range. Little guy, line-drive bat.

Matt Spencer profile added

Other Stuff

Truckin’ along with the profile pages, I’ve added one for Matt Spencer. Just a reminder for those who aren’t familiar, if you use the left side of the page, you’ll find links to prospects in alphabetical order by last name. I’m slowly working on building a dedicated profile page for each player, including statistics, videos, scouting reports and more. If you see the small “profile” link under a player’s name, just click it and you’ll be taken right to his profile page. I’m slowly working on getting a page for every legit prospect. If you’d like to view all of the profiles completed, you can click the “Profile Pages” tag under the features category on the left, or by clicking this link.

Completed profiles so far

Dominic Brown
Adrian Cardenas
Drew Carpenter
Carlos Carrasco
Kyle Drabek
Josh Outman
Julian Sampson
Matt Spencer
Joe Savery

Remember, if you have anything to submit for these guys, whether it be a picture, video, a scouting report, an article, or anything else, please post it in the comments section for their individual page and I’ll make the necessary changes. Thanks.