All posts by Matt Winkelman

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

Phillies 2014 Top 30 Prospects

** My Top 30 Prospects

Sitting down to write the Phillies Top 30 Prospect list is one of the most interesting parts of the offseason.  The ranking process poses questions about how we evaluate different profiles and try to replicate the kind of characteristics that major league clubs value.  That being said, I find the final order to be the least important part of the process.  I find the write-ups and other details to be the much more informative.  I felt much more comfortable approaching the list this year, and I feel that I have learned a lot from talking to people and examining what I value.

My Ranking Philosophy:

Overall this ranking is the order that I would value these players if I were running the Phillies.  This evaluation is what I think their major league profile projects to be, coupled with their risk of obtaining that.  In general I lean towards high impact talent, because the impact of a single all-star is more valuable than a collection of lower impact talent.  You can’t go pure ceiling though.  I tried to balance the player’s upside with their floor, as well as how their profile fits into a major league role.  With current budgets and the influx of money, roster spots are becoming the limited commodity and players that fit well onto rosters have more value than limited use players. Continue reading Phillies 2014 Top 30 Prospects →

Thoughts on Those That Missed the Top 30

** My Top 30 Prospects

After working on the Top 30, I ended up with a list of names that I had opinions on.  This list may only represent two-thirds of them, because I just didn’t have time to finish them all.  This is not meant to be really in depth, so if you want more on a player just ask.  Previously I had attached this list to the Top 30, but in an effort to streamline the main list, the supplement gets its own post.  From this list you can probably take a good guess on who made the Top 30, so enjoy the speculation.

Jake Sweaney
Sweaney just missed the list.  Some evaluators love the upside, but I just feel that a raw catcher that may not catch, just doesn’t have a ton of value.  Check back in a year and he could be much higher in lesser form of what a Grullon did this year. Continue reading Thoughts on Those That Missed the Top 30 →

2014 Phillies Sleeper/Breakout Prospects Open Discussion

2014 Reader Top 30

Everyone has that one player they believe is just going to explode on to the scene this year.  Whether it is the growth of a single tool, the ability to stay healthy, or just to survive another level, a prospect’s stock can change wildly.  In general most people think of a sleeper as a player who is completely off the radar, and a breakout prospect as a player who is going to have his stock take a large leap forward, but feel free to define it as you choose.

I will post my sleepers along with my Top prospects, but for reference here were my 2013 picks.
Sleepers: David Buchanan, Braden Shull, Manuare Martinez, Marek Minarek
Breakout Prospect: Carlos Tocci

Lets hear yours.

Maikel Franco #17, Jesse Biddle #71, and JP Crawford #78 on Baseball America Top 100

Other Stuff

Last night Baseball America release their Top 100 prospects in minor league baseball.  The Phillies were represent on that list by Maikel Franco (17), Jesse Biddle (71), and J.P. Crawford (78).  Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez was eligible for the list, but did not make it.

There are many parts of the list I don’t agree with, but that has a lot to do with my personal philosophies on what has value.  The full list can be found here.

Here are the writeups on the Phillies Players: Continue reading Maikel Franco #17, Jesse Biddle #71, and JP Crawford #78 on Baseball America Top 100 →

Trades, Player Development, and the Value of High Picks

Other Stuff

There has been a lot written into about the downfall of the Phillies and their various strategies to pull themselves out of it.  I think much of the downfall has been placed on the wrong things.  Bloggers often reach for the draft and player development as two easy punching bags.  I think it is a lazy way of being sensational and lacks a understanding of the basics of player development.

What set in motion this examination was a paragraph from a That Ball’s Outta Here editorial on a David Murphy piece: Continue reading Trades, Player Development, and the Value of High Picks →

Reader Top 30 – Final Recap & Reader Lists

2014 Reader Top 30

Another year, another list of 30 prospect names in an order.  Due to the length of the exercise circumstances change between 1 and 30, so it is far from a perfect list, but here is your chance to give your opinion on it as a whole.

Additionally feel free to submit a personal Top 30 in the comments.

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  5. Carlos Tocci Continue reading Reader Top 30 – Final Recap & Reader Lists →

Joe Savery Claimed by Oakland Athletics

Other Stuff

Joe Savery who was DFA’d to make room for AJ Burnett, has been claimed by the Oakland Athletics.  On the surface Savery is a fringe bullpen arm with a minor league option left.  The Phillies are stacked with fringe bullpen arms making Savery redundant for the organization.   Continue reading Joe Savery Claimed by Oakland Athletics →

Interview with Josh Norris of Baseball America

* Interviews

Josh Norris wrote the Phillies section for Baseball America this year.  He answered a few of my questions about the system as well as a few specific players.  The full list of Baseball America’s Top 30 prospects can be found here.

Since they were drafted Dylan Cozens and Zach Green have been linked together.  Both put up big power seasons in Williamsport in 2013.  Green is ranked 15 as a 50 high and Cozens comes in at 22 as a 50 Extreme.  What differentiates the two of them in your mind?

First and foremost is experience. This was Cozens’ first full season playing pro ball, and he performed well. There’s still a long way to go. He’s not real strong in the outfield, and some scouts already posit that he’s a first baseman in the long term.

By contrast, Green has plenty of baseball in his past. He performed well above-average in the New York-Penn League and showed enough with the glove that he didn’t get any “he’ll definitely have to move” comments from evaluators I spoke with.

To boil it down to one sentence: Cozens is an extreme because of his lack of baseball experience. Continue reading Interview with Josh Norris of Baseball America →

Reader Top 30 #30 – Weekend Runoff – Mitch Gueller

2014 Reader Top 30

Samuel Hiciano, Gabriel Lino, and Mitch Gueller finished with 29, 28, and 27 votes respectively and so here is your runoff to end voting. Continue reading Reader Top 30 #30 – Weekend Runoff – Mitch Gueller →

Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Phillies Prospects

Top Prospect Lists

I am a big fan of the Baseball Prospectus Top 10 prospects.  Right now the prospect team assembled there is really talented and have been able to get a lot of eyes on a lot of players.  This leads to reports that are some of the most detailed outside of major league front offices.  The Phillies list itself is posted here.

 Top 10:

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Kelly Dugan
  5. Carlos Tocci
  6. Deivi Grullon
  7. Severino Gonzalez
  8. Cesar Hernandez
  9. Yoel Mecias
  10. Cord Sandberg

Continue reading Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Phillies Prospects →