It is hard to not get excited about hot starts for prospects because they bring so much promise and optimism.  The key as always, is to know why they are starting out how they are.  Sometimes regression is right around the corner and other times there is something there that has changed our view on them.

This isn’t a Hot Start This Is Who He Is:

Maikel Franco – Franco is by no means a finished product or a perfect prospect.  He has some limitations that will likely keep him from being a superstar.  At the plate he is a free swinger (not a hacker) and is going to have reasonable strikeout rates and walk rates but he is not going to be a high OBP guy.  His swing can get long and he can sell out for power exposing him to premium stuff, especially when pitchers can get inside on him.  But what he has, is special, Franco has a very quick bat that makes solid contact and projects to have a plus hit and plus power tool.  He should be able to be average to above defensively at third, and all round you have an occasional All-Star and well above average third baseman. Continue reading Taking Stock a Month In – Making Sense of Hot Starts →

We often think of minor league players as needing to continuing to improve.  Sometimes it is almost as good to sustain success on a higher level.  the second part of this series taking stock in the system looks at  the guys where nothing has really changed this year.  Some of the stats may be slightly above or below but the profile has not changed.

Adam Morgan – Morgan has been dominant at times and has struggled during other times.  He is more the guy he was in Reading then Clearwater, which is a very solid #3 starter with some upside.  Despite clamoring for him to be called up, Morgan still has a lot to do on the AAA level.  He now has only about 66 innings (11 starts) above A ball, and could easily take the whole year to refine his secondary pitches without it affecting his value. Continue reading Taking Stock a Month In – They Are Who We Thought They Were →

We have about a month of games on the system plus spring training so it is time to take a quick look at the system and some starts to the season.  I am going to start with the cold starters and on Wednesday look at some guys doing what we thought they should do and on Friday look at the guys getting off to great starts.

Slow starts don’t necessarily derail a year or even mean much.  However, there is information to be had especially when looking at what has changed or not changed about a prospect coming into the year.

Don’t Panic:

Tommy Joseph – It hasn’t look great for Joseph to this point, at the plate he is batting .204/.259/.389.  In a small sample size the strikeout rate is a little up and the walk rate is down, the BABIP is also only .211 but he is hitting for power closer to his year in the Cal League.  The receiving is a problem and always will be, but it should improve over time and the passed balls have dropped considerably since the first week.  He may not be ready as quickly as some people may like but it is just a slow start for the 21 year old in AAA. Continue reading Taking Stock A Month In – Slow Starts →

Before really ramping into 2013 draft coverage I am going to look back on some prototypical Phillies draft types.  The goal is to find a pattern of success or failure and see if there is a trend in the developmental process.  I am going to look at the tools that caused them to be drafted and how amateur scouts saw them, how they looked a year later when professional scouts had a chance to look them over, and then how it all ended up.

One of the most common complaints of Phillies drafts have been their drafting of “toolsy” outfielders, that just don’t know how to play baseball.  There have been some disastrous picks such as Greg Golson, which is where this series will begin, with the 2004 draft.  Not all of these players were “toolsy” but it should get a larger picture of the type of players drafted and how it turned out.

Greg Golson  – 1st round 2004

What Got him Drafted: 70+ speed, 60 hit / 60 power projection, 60 arm, 60 defense

A Year Later: While the other tools remained the hit tool projection took a big step back when his pitch recognition was not where scouts thought it was.  He struck out 106 times in 401 PAs.

How’d it end up: The Phillies traded him in 2008 for John Mayberry Jr.  He has bounced around organizations since as a AAAA player who can play CF and steal bases.  The hit tool never materialized. Continue reading Draft Retrospective: “Toolsy” Outfielders →

There has been a lot of talk lately about bringing up Adam Morgan, however he requires a spot on the 40 man roster.  This isn’t a deal breaker but it does provide an excuse to reevaluate the 40 man roster as there has been some definite shifts early in the system.  Currently the roster stands at 41 players due to Carlos Ruiz’s suspension.

The Locks (22):

Erik Kratz, Carlos Ruiz, Kevin Frandsen, Freddy Galvis, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Michael Young, Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Darin Ruf, Mike Adams, Phillipe Aumont, Antonio Bastardo, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan, Cliff Lee, Ethan Martin, Jonathan Pettibone, Jonathan Papelbon

Likely Locks (9):

Sebastian Valle, Zach Collier, Cesar Hernandez, and Tyson Gillies – Four prospects who have either have value or have the tools/ceiling to have a major league future.  None will be difference makers but have too much value to throw to the side. Continue reading The 40 Man Roster Numbers Game →

Instant Reaction: For the start on Monday this was the best decision.  Morgan was out of the picture for this start and while Martin has the stuff the command is still needing a lot.  Pettibone brings more to the table than Cloyd and will likely have the opportunity to stick around if he can pitch well.  If he cannot stick they will have the opportunity to mess with the rotation enough to bring up Adam Morgan.

This probably signals the end of Cloyd with the Phillies, because he has now been passed by the next wave of pitchers.  With the hot starts by Savery and Robles, Cloyd likely is now towards the top of the list on players most likely to be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Adam Morgan and eventually Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph. Continue reading Jonathan Pettibone Called Up To Make Big-League Debut on Monday →

Larry Greene Promoted to Lakewood:

As per his twitter account Larry Greene is heading north to join the Blueclaws.  Greene showed up out of shape to play the OF and was held back to work on his conditioning before being sent to full season ball.  Greene’s 2012 was slightly disappointing because his raw power did not show up in games but he did more than hold his own in Williamsport showing good patience at the plate albeit with a high strikeout rate as well.  If he is going to succeed he is going to have to prove that he does not have a slow bat, and that he can identify his pitches to drive.  Even if his long term destination is first base the Phillies are determined to keep him in the OF as long as possible. Continue reading News, Notes, and Reactions →

A big topic recently with the big league club has been the bullpen.  I am firm believer that the bullpen is a place to get the most value out of players that either have a short shelf life or lack the skills the reach the majors in an expanded role.  One of the most interesting guys is BJ Rosenberg.

How we got here:

Rosenberg was drafted in the 13th round of the 2008 draft as a 5th year senior.  He was a starter to begin his career but ultimately ended up in the bullpen his junior year due to injuries.  In 2009 he made it all the way to Reading and earned him a non-roster invite to Spring Training.  However, 2010 and 2011 were a disaster of injuries and inefficiencies that  saw him move to the rotation for some time.  In 2012 a good year in Lehigh Valley saw him promoted to the big league club for 25 terrible innings (there were some much worst than others).  An injury in big league camp in 2013 derailed his attempt at a bullpen spot to start the season and the Phillies sent him to AAA as a starter. Continue reading Prospect Spotlight: BJ Rosenberg →

I was going to avoid writing a prediction piece on the minor league season but the major league season has gotten off to a depressing enough start that I started writing some predictions for the minor league season.  I will limit these to positive predictions as it is the time of year for optimism.

1.  As the big league club struggles and prospects get more attention, Reading, Lehigh Valley, and Lakewood all continue to see attendance boosts and coverage by mainstream media as casual fans learn more about the farm system.

2.  Shane Watson dominates Lo-A hitters with his curveball but the Phillies leave him in Lakewood all year to work on fastball command and building arm strength. Continue reading 2013 Minor League Predictions →